"Some people believe this is a Hollywood movie
and expect results now. It's not.
What's at stake is people's lives."
Volodymyr Zelensky on BBC 21 June 2023.


“The counteroffensive is not a new season of a Netflix show.
There is no need to expect action and buy popcorn.”
presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak on Twitter 23 June 2023

Russo-Ukraine War - June 2023

Russia believed that the Ukrainian conflict is a US proxy war against it, with Ukrainian soldiers serving as cannon fodder. Moscow said Washington prevented Kiev from signing a peace agreement with Russia in the first months of the conflict, telling Zelensky to continue fighting instead.

The outcome of the conflict largely depended on the upcoming counteroffensive. Ukrainians are under international pressure to launch the counteroffensive. It became inevitable because Western countries sent enormous amounts of military equipment and want to see proof that it was necessary.

Diversion is a tactic that Ukrainian forces have used before. Just ahead of the Autumn 2022 counteroffensive that saw Ukraine retake the town of Kharkiv, Ukrainian forces made conspicuous efforts to stage the appearance of an imminent attack further north on Kherson. Ukrainians may be tempted to prioritise territorial gains over destroying enemy units, because a map showing clear Ukrainian advances goes over better in the international media than reports on this or that Russian brigade being killed.

Shankar Narayan later wrote "Ukraine chose to not expend its resources in Bakhmut. The Wagner’s won control of the Bakhmut town on: 20th May, 2023. Ukraine’s counter-offensive on the Russian frontline started on: 4th June, 2023. On the fourth of June, Ukraine initiated a large-scale offensive against the Russian front lines. To the best of my recollection, they targeted over 30 locations. Given that only two weeks remained before the launch of their counteroffensive, it was impractical for Ukraine to continue deploying significant forces in the Bakhmut sector. Therefore, instead of committing their prepared troops to Bakhmut, Ukraine opted to engage in combat in other locations."

Observers doubted that a large operation crossing the Dnipro River is likely. Crossing a river is much riskier than taking the road through Zaporizhzhia. In addition, on the other side of the Dnipro, there are marshes that make it practically impossible to unload the heavy vehicles necessary to break through enemy lines. Targeting Donbas, and specifically the Luhansk region, also comes with difficulties. It’s much less flat than the Kherson region with many more towns to recapture, which would make any advance much slower.

Western assessments said the offensive will be larger and more complicated than any other effort Ukraine has conducted since the launch of the Russian invasion on February 24, 2022. Ukraine’s newest units, plus all of its regular and irregular units, went into their offensive with more than $32 billion in weapons and security assistance from U.S. arsenals, plus billions more from European allies.

Russia, meanwhile, had been digging in and expanding its defensive lines -- minefields, trenches, anti-tank “dragon’s teeth” -- across the roughly 1,200-kilometer front that stretches from Ukraine’s Luhansk region, in the Donbas, southwest to the mouth of the Dnieper River and its eastern banks in the Kherson region.

The weather was just one more thing that troops in the trenches at the front lines had to battle. In southern Ukraine, the soil was forecast to be dry from around mid-April, then two weeks later in the Donetsk region, and from mid-May in the Russian-occupied Luhansk region further north. While Russian tanks were still stuck in the mud in Eastern Ukraine, the Ukrainian army could begin a counteroffensive in the south toward the Russian-occupied city of Mariopol. The regionally varying end of Ukraine's mud season answers the much-discussed question of when the country can launch a counteroffensive to liberate land occupied by Russian forces.

In Ukraine, the mud season, known as "rasputitsa," renders fields and unpaved roads impassable for around a month in the fall and spring, due to rain and melting snow respectively. Tanks, troop carriers and artillery pieces all become mired down in the soggy earth. Flat land as far as the eye can see, and with a particular quality of soil, Ukraine's black earth is part of what makes the southern part of the country among the most fertile in the world. After very heavy rainfall and flooding in the last week, it looked as though the weather will improve and the ground will start to dry along the southern front over the first week of June.

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy told The Wall Street Journal 03 June 2023 that Ukrainian forces were ready for the counteroffensive. Ukraine had no air superiority, no superiority in firepower, and most importantly, no effect of surprise.

On June 4, Ukraine launched its counteroffensive with a strike on the Vremyevsky salient. Since June 4, Kiev's forces have been trying to advance on the southern section of the frontlines in Zaporozhye Region and in the western part of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR). The anticipated ‘blitzkrieg’ strategy was not successful and the Ukrainian offensive became stuck in positional warfare, losing a lot of the military equipment provided to it by the West. Kiev and its Western partners were particularly concerned about the planned breakthrough to the Sea of Azov, since the strategic goals of the counteroffensive have failed and the land corridor to Crimea remains under Russian control. . If the Ukrainian offensive had been successful and the AFU had broken through to the Sea of Azov, the Russian front would have split into two parts. However complex, the attempt was worth it for Ukraine, since the AFU could have then blocked the Russian Army’s Donbass units and posed a serious threat to Crimea and Sevastopol – the Black Sea Fleet’s main military base. Russia said 05 June 2023 its forces have repelled a multipronged "large-scale" Ukrainian offensive in the eastern Donetsk region, but Kyiv rejected the report, calling it an attempt at disinformation while denying it had launched its long-awaited counterattack to reclaim territory lost since Moscow invaded in February 2022. This claim could not be independently verified and was rejected by the Ukrainian military.

The Russian Defense Ministry said : "On June 4, the enemy made an unsuccessful attempt at a large-scale offensive in the South Donetsk direction ... The active actions of the units of the Vostok group of troops, air strikes and artillery fire in ... the Donetsk People's Republic and in ... Zaporozhye region, the enemy suffered significant losses. Up to 300 Ukrainian military, 16 tanks, 26 armored combat vehicles, and 14 vehicles were destroyed in this direction in a day," the ministry said in a statement, adding that Ukraine has "failed to achieve its goals."

Over the past two days, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) have attempted a counteroffensive in the Ugledar region twice over the past two days, but suffered serious losses and were driven back. This was stated by the acting head of the DPR Denis Pushilin. "Over the past two days, the enemy has twice made attempts from Vremevka (in the Ugledar region - TASS note) to attack with quite serious forces, as a result of which he suffered very serious losses both in manpower and in equipment. At the moment, clashes continue, the enemy thrown back with losses," he said on the air of the Rossiya-24 TV channel.

Ukraine moved to offensive operations "in some directions." This was stated by Deputy Head of the Ministry of Defense of the country Anna Malyar. At the same time, adviser to the head of the office of the Ukrainian president, Mikhail Podolyak, wrote on Twitter that "there is no global offensive <...> yet"

Once the long awaited Ukrainan counter-offensive began, the maximum task was considered to be the capture of the Crimea, a satisfactory scenario was the elimination of the land corridor to the peninsula. Ukraine’s offensives were focused on Bakhmut and Donetsk city in the east. Kiev had been talking about a counteroffensive since last autumn. It expected in the winter, then in the spring, but the Armed Forces of Ukraine moved forward only in the first days of June.

In the south, at the border between Donetsk and Zaporizhizhia regions, Ukraine advanced 7km (3 miles) into Russian-held territory towards Melitopol, and it maintained an open front in western Zaporizhizhia, south of Orikhiv. Russia’s defence ministry said the fiercest fighting was in Zaporizhizhia, south of Orikhiv, where Ukraine launched waves of attacks by mechanised battalion groups, which were repelled.

Ukraine’s general staff said Russia was focusing its attacks in the directions of Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Maryinka. Ukrainian ground forces commander Oleksandr Syrskyi said Russia was prioritising the defence of Bakhmut.

The AFU was expected to involve newly-formed units in the counteroffensive, mostly armed with Western weapons and trained by Western instructors. These brigades were kept in the rear for a long time. On June 8, the AFU launched an offensive supposedly headed by the 47th Mechanized Brigade and armed with the new German Leopard tanks. This attack ended badly for the Ukrainians – the operation failed, Western equipment was destroyed, and Russia published damaging video footage which went viral online In the course of three weeks of fighting, the AFU captured six villages, which were all evacuated ahead of time.

Ukraine pressed counteroffensives on four main fronts during the 69th week of the war, but made frustratingly slow progress because of stiff resistance from Russian defensive positions. During the telethon on June 19, Ukrainian Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar said over the previous week Ukrainian recaptured territory climbed to 113-square kilometres (44sq miles), only 13sq km (6sq miles) more than what Ukraine claimed it reconquered a week earlier.

The Ukrainian military turned out to be quite vulnerable to minefields. The Russian troops, in turn, demonstrated high efficiency in defense. Western media warned that the failure of the counter-offensive will cost Kyiv dearly. NATO allies will cut funding, arms supplies, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine will not be able to continue hostilities with the same intensity. On 21 June 2023, Zelenskyy told the BBC that progress on the counteroffensive had been “slower than desired” yet Kiev is not ready for talks with Russia on ending the conflict, President Vladimir Zelensky said. "Some people believe this is a Hollywood movie and expect results now. It’s not," the Ukrainian president said. "Whatever some might want, including attempts to pressure us, with all due respect, we will advance on the battlefield the way we deem best," he stressed. Ukraine will not agree to negotiate with Russia as long as Russian troops are on Ukrainian territory, the president added. "No matter how far we advance in our counter-offensive, we will not agree to a frozen conflict because that is war, that is a prospectless development for Ukraine," he said.

According to the Russian Defense Ministry, Ukrainian forces have been making unsuccessful offensive attempts since June 4, suffering losses in manpower and hardware. According to the ministry, Ukrainian forces have suffered around 7,500 casualties in their attempts to attack in the South Donetsk, Zaporozhye and Donetsk areas. President Vladimir Putin also stressed that the Ukrainian armed forces had not achieved success in any direction.

Units trained according to NATO methodology or equipped with Western weapons had for the most part not entered the battle. Absent the widespread use of Western armored vehicles, including heavy ones, the success of the operation was in doubt. At least 40,000 - and probably 80,000 - Ukrainian fighters were still in reserve. Ukraine’s Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said 23 June 2023 the counteroffensive will “take time” but that he is “optimistic” about its success. “We will do very smart, offensive operations. And because of this, it [the counteroffensive] will take time,” he said on the sidelines of a Ukraine Recovery Conference in London. “But we have the intention to move and go ahead. We are going to go ahead … and I’m absolutely optimistic for the liberation of all our lands occupied by Russians,” he added. He said the counteroffensive “is a number of military operations. Sometimes, it’s offensive. Sometimes, it’s defensive... Unfortunately, during our preparation for this counteroffensive Russians were preparing too, so there are so many minefields, which really makes it slower to move,” he said.

Mikhail Podolyak, an adviser to the head of the president's office, said: "We have not launched a counteroffensive yet, and Russia says it has already won." According to him, at the moment the Armed Forces of Ukraine are solving several tasks: to eliminate as much Russian manpower and equipment as possible, as well as to intimidate the enemy with small units and advance in several directions.

Russia said 22 June 2023 Ukrainian forces in eastern and southern Ukraine were temporarily limiting their efforts after launching a highly anticipated counteroffensive two weeks ago, Russian news agencies reported. Russian Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu said, “After conducting active hostilities over the past 16 days and having suffered significant losses, the enemy has reduced its activity and is currently regrouping.” Shoigu added that Western military aid for Ukraine was not seriously affecting the battlefield, despite the Kremlin routinely saying deliveries prolong and escalate the conflict.

Putin, who had argued several times within the last week that the Ukrainian counteroffensive is a failure, told a security council meeting on Thursday that Kyiv’s forces had an “offensive potential”. “It must be assumed that this offensive potential of the adversary is not exhausted. A series of strategic reserves are not employed, and I ask that this reality be taken into account,” he said.

After laying siege to the military headquarters in Rostov and sending a convoy of vehicles towards Moscow, Russian mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin ordered Wagner to stand down on June 24, after Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko mediated a deal with the Kremlin. Under the terms of the deal, Wagner would be reintegrated into the Russian armed forces, while Prigozhin would move to Belarus and the criminal case against him for armed mutiny would be dropped.

Prigozhin accused Russian military chiefs of lying to President Vladimir Putin about the scale of Russian losses. In a series of emotional audio messages over two days, Prigozhin escalated his repeated criticism of Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov. “Total trash is being put on the president’s desk. Shoigu and Gerasimov have a simple approach: The lie must be monstrous for people to believe it. That is what they are doing,” Prigozhin said in one message. “It’s all being hidden from everyone. Russia will wake up one day and learn that [Russian-annexed] Crimea has been handed over to the Ukrainians. They are misleading the Russian people, and if it keeps on like this, we’ll be left without the most important thing: Russia,” he added.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine fired four Storm Shadow missiles on the Chongarsky bridges across the Sivash on 19 June 2023. Chairman of the State Council (Parliament) of Crimea Vladimir Konstantinov said that the damage on the bridge is minor and the authorities will be able to quickly restore the overpass. An older, parallel road bridge that was not in operation also sustained damage. And the nearby rail bridge, located a few miles to the southwest, was also damaged. The strike was carried out on the road bridge known as "the gate to Crimea," which represents the shortest route from the Crimean Peninsula to the front line in southern Ukraine, making it a key link in Russia's supply line.

The Russian-held bridge that connects southern Ukraine to the annexed Crimean peninsula has been badly damaged and is "unusable" at present, a Moscow-backed official said 23 June 2023. "It is unusable for movement," said Vladimir Saldo, pro-Russian governor of the southern Ukrainian region of Kherson, adding that the Chongar bridge would be closed to traffic for around 20 days "The bridge sustained more damage than we initially thought," Saldo said in televised remarks, adding repairs were underway. Crimea’s Russian-installed transportation minister said repairs could take up to three weeks. "On June 23, the Planet Labs satellite recorded a new pontoon crossing erected under the Chongar Bridge," the Telegram of the Radio Liberty "Schemes" project , Ukrinform reported.

Moscow's forces are retreating in Ukraine's east and south following Kiev's counteroffensive, the head of Russia's Wagner mercenary group said 23 June 2023. "On the ground now ... the Russian army is retreating on the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson fronts. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are pushing back the Russian army," Yevgeny Prigozhin said on social media. The Kremlin last year claimed to have annexed the southern Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions despite not fully controlling them, and Ukraine has posted limited gains recently. "We are washing ourselves in blood. No one is bringing reserves. What they tell us is the deepest deception," Prigozhin added, referring to the Russian military and political leadership.

Prigozhin said that no one bombed Donbass, and the Russian Ministry of Defense is lying that allegedly on the eve of February 24, 2022 there was "crazy aggression" from Ukraine and allegedly Ukrainians, together with the entire NATO bloc, were going to "attack" Russia.

Western media noted that the Ukrainian military faced many problems during the counteroffensive. Thus, the American newspaper New York Times, citing experts, wrote that Russian artillery and aviation do not allow Kyiv to cover its forces with air defense. CNN, citing two Western officials and a high-ranking Pentagon official, noted that the offensive actions of the Ukrainian troops showed not such a noticeable success as Kiev's Western allies expected, while Russian forces show competence beyond their expectations.

On 23 June 2023, Adviser to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Mykhailo Podolyak on Twitter accused Western partners of using the time spent persuading Kiev to provide the necessary weapons to Kiev to build a defense. "During the time spent persuading our partners to provide the necessary weapons, Russian fortifications were built, defense lines with deep trenches, a system of minefields were created. Today, a reasonable and balanced approach is required to break through the Russian front," Podolyak wrote. According to him, the counteroffensive should not be compared with a Hollywood blockbuster or a new season of the series. He urged "not to wait for action and buy popcorn." Podolyak added that Ukrainian troops are conducting "operations to prepare the battlefield."

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu warned Ukraine on 20 June 2023 of "immediate retaliation" if Kyiv attacks Crimea with Western missiles. "Leaders of the Ukrainian armed forces plan to shell Russian territory, including [Ukraine’s Russia-annexed] Crimea, with [U.S.-made] HIMARS and [British-made] Storm Shadow missiles," Shoigu said, adding that the use of such missiles "outside the zone of the special military operation would signify the United States' and Great Britain's full-fledged involvement in the conflict and will lead to immediate strikes on decision-making centers in Ukraine."

The chairman of the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar people, Refat Chubarov, told the correspondent of Ukrinform 22 June 2023 : "At the level of propagandists, non-decision-making politicians — I mean collaborators — the occupiers are beginning to scatter pseudo-demands, saying that decision-making centers in Ukraine should be struck. But they allegedly forgot that the strikes on Crimea have been carried out since August 9 last year. It started with the military airfield in Novofedorivka, then ammunition depots near Dzhankoy were destroyed, drone attacks on the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet in Black Sea. The strike on the Chongar Bridge is one of those strikes that sends a powerful signal that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have other, perhaps more important, objects in the temporarily occupied Crimea in their sights. I mean the bridge across the Kerch Strait," Chubarov said.

As per a June 2023 survey by DG COMM’s Public Opinion Monitoring Unit, 76% of Europeans approve of the bloc's support for Ukraine with disapproval being more widespread in southeastern areas of Europe. In particular, in Italy, 46% lack confidence in President Zelensky and just 34% have some, while 81% of respondents insist that the Ukraine conflict backfired on their country's economy. When it comes to military assistance, 56% of Europeans still support arms shipments to Ukraine, as per European pollsters. However, divisions are brewing with regard to the issue. While Poland, Lithuania, Czechia, Latvia, and Romania, mostly support sending weapons to Ukraine, France is divided, with 57% considering military support as beneficial and 43% concerned about the conflict spreading. In Germany, 43% of respondents believe that the current level of support is appropriate while 37% say it goes too far. 47% of Italians see sending F-16 fighter jets as a bad idea, while 23.6% approve of the move. In Spain, 61% approve of military support to Ukraine.