Prigozhin's Rebellion

Russian President Vladimir Putin, five days after the attempted rebellion, met in the Kremlin with the leadership of the Wagner PMC, Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the head of state, said. Commenting on the publication of the Liberation publication about the meeting between Putin and Prigozhin after the events of June 24, a Kremlin spokesman said: "The President had such a meeting. He invited 35 people to it - all the commanders of the detachments and the leadership of the company, including Prigozhin himself."

"This meeting took place in the Kremlin on June 29. It lasted almost three hours," he explained. "The details of it (meeting - TASS note) are unknown, but the only thing we can say is that the president gave an assessment of the company's actions at the front during the NVO, and also gave his assessment of the events of June 24," Peskov added. According to him, "Putin listened to the explanations of the [Wagner] commanders and offered them further options for employment and further combat use." At the same time, "the commanders themselves presented their version of what happened [on June 24], they emphasized that they were staunch supporters and soldiers of the head of state and the supreme commander in chief, and also said that they were ready to continue to fight for the Motherland."

Engaged in a bitter months-long feud with Moscow’s army brass as his Wagner mercenaries spearheaded battles in eastern Ukraine despite a lack of ammunition, Prigozhin found himself increasingly isolated on Russia’s political landscape as the war dragged on. Gerasimov was put in charge of the whole Ukraine operation, and Ramzan Kadyrov – the Kremlin-backed Chechen leader who has deployed forces to fight with Russia in Ukraine – has sided with the defence ministry. Prigozhin's political ambition was nt a conspiracy of Western intelligence services, or a game of "Kremlin towers" (as the Russian political emigrants and Ukrainian propaganda write). There were natural contradictions between Prigozhin and Shoigu and Wagner and the Ministry of Defense.

Prigozhin had long dreamed of becoming head of the Defense Ministry, and sees Surovikin as chief of the General Staff. Wagner troops had played a crucial role in the Ukraine war, capturing the eastern city of Bakhmut, an area where the bloodiest and longest battles have taken place. But Prigozhin increasingly criticized the military brass, accusing it of incompetence and of starving his troops of munitions.

The Russian defence ministry published a decree in early June requiring all private mercenary groups to join the regular army from July 1, sounding the death knell for Wagner’s independence. Without troops under his direct command, Prigozhin may have calculated that he would no longer be protected and could instead be prosecuted and imprisoned should the Kremlin decide to do so. Prigozhin was in a losing situation and feared that he would have been without protection against prosecution if his mercenaries were to be sent back to the army. The new rule is a substantial threat to Prigozhin's political influence and could even be a threat to his physical safety.

Prigozhin intended to try to capture Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and General Valery Gerasimov, the chief of Russia’s general staff, during a visit to a southern region that borders Ukraine, The Wall Street Journal reported. But Russia’s domestic intelligence agency, the Federal Security Service, found out about the plan two days before it was to be executed, according to Western officials, forcing Prigozhin to move ahead with his rebellion more quickly than he had planned.

23 June 2023 - Friday

Yevgeny Prigozhin's long-running conflict with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu appeared to have reached its climax on June 23, 2023. The head of the Wagner mercenaries published a video of the aftermath of the strike on the rear camp of the Wagnerites and stated that this was the work of regular Russian troops. According to him, Shoigu arrived in Rostov-on-Don to implement this plan, and artillery and aircraft were used to strike.

The leader of the Wagnerites announced that he was declaring war on the Russian Ministry of Defense. Prigozhin asked who would be responsible for the "genocide of the Russian people." In his statements, he addressed specifically to Shoigu and Gerasimov. Prigozhin began to threaten "We were ready to make concessions to the Ministry of Defense, to surrender our weapons, to find a solution on how we would continue to defend the country. But these scum did not calm down. Today, seeing that we are not broken, they launched rocket attacks on our rear camps. Many soldiers died. We will decide how we will respond to this atrocity. The next step is ours”.

Prigozhin said that the "council of commanders" of the Wagnerites had made a decision - the military leadership of Russia should be stopped. The head of the PMC accused Shoigu of despising the life of soldiers, and the country has forgotten the word "justice." Prigozhin said "Therefore, those who destroyed our guys today, those who destroyed tens, many tens of thousands of lives of Russian soldiers, will be punished,” Moreover, he stated that the Wagnerites would "destroy" any targets that resisted - roadblocks, aircraft, equipment, etc. At the same time, civilians are urged not to take to the streets "along the route of the Wagnerites."

"There are 25 thousand of us, and we are going to figure out why chaos is happening in the country. Twenty-five thousand are waiting as a tactical reserve, and the strategic reserve is the whole army and the whole country. Everyone who wants to join, we must end this disgrace," threatened Prigogine. "After we finish what we started, we will return to the front to defend our Motherland. The presidential authorities, the government, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the National Guard and other structures will continue to work as usual. We will deal with those who destroy Russian soldiers and return to the front. Justice in the troops will be restored, and then justice for all of Russia."

The head of the Wagner PMC said that Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu allegedly arrived in Rostov-on-Don on purpose to eliminate the Wagnerites. Prigozhin claims that the Russian minister allegedly used gunners and helicopter pilots to destroy the Wagnerites. However, after the so-called "exposure" Shoigu "cowardly fled" from Rostov. "At 21:00 he ran cowardly, like a woman. In order not to explain why he raised helicopters to destroy our guys, why he launched missile strikes. This creature will be stopped,” Prigogine threatened.

The Moscow Exchange index during the evening session fell by more than 3%. In Rostov-on-Don, posts were set up near the headquarters of the Southern Military District . The central streets of the city are patrolled by police cars, in the west of Rostov, the sounds of flying aircraft are heard. There was no activity near the PMC Wagner Center building in St. Petersburg.

The most important objects of Moscow were taken under increased protection, security measures in the capital were strengthened. Residents of the Republic of Crimea were urged to trust only reports from official sources against the backdrop of the activation of the Ukrainian Center for Information and Psychological Operations in the region's large social media chats. Channel One, in a special issue about Prigozhin, called it staged a video about the shelling of the "Wagnerites".

The situation in the Krasnodar Territory remains calm and under control, law enforcement agencies and law enforcement agencies are not introducing any additional security measures. In the Rostov region, traffic was blocked on the M-4 highway. The traffic flow is directed back to the city.

The Kremlin believed that the video of the aftermath of the strike on the rear camp of Wagner mercenaries, which was published by Prigozhin, is a staging. However, against the backdrop of the unfolding situation, the option of starting a civil war in Russia was not ruled out.

Almost instantly, the Russian Ministry of Defense reacted to Prigozhin's hysteria. “All messages and video distributed on social networks on behalf of [Yevgeny] Prigozhin about the alleged strike by the [Russian military] on the camps of PMC Wagner in the rear areas do not correspond to reality and are an informational provocation,” the ministry said in a statement.“Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue to carry out combat missions on the line of contact with the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area of the special military operation,” the ministry added.

The Russian Defense Ministry said 24 June 2023 The Ukrainian military took advantage of the provocation of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of Wagner PMC, and is now concentrating units in the Bakhmut tactical direction for a subsequent offensive. "Taking advantage of Prigozhin's provocation to disorganize the situation, the Kiev regime in the Bakhmut tactical direction is concentrating units of the 35th and 36th marine brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the starting lines for offensive operations," the ministry said.

At the same time, the Kremlin also commented on the situation. Dmitry Peskov said that Vladimir Putin was informed about the situation with Prigozhin. "Putin is aware of the situation that is unfolding around Prigozhin, they are taking all necessary measures," Peskov said.

The Russian Prosecutor General's Office reported that the actions of Yevgeny Prigozhin were given an appropriate assessment. The Prosecutor General's Office confirmed that the case against Prigozhin had been launched, addressing it in an official statement: "On June 23, 2023, the Investigative Department of the FSB of Russia has initiated a criminal case against Prigozhin E.V. under Article 279 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation on the fact of organizing an armed rebellion. His actions will be given a proper legal assessment. This crime is punishable by imprisonment for a term of 12 to 20 years"

General Sergei Surovikin spoke out against Prigozhin's uprising. He urged the Wagnerites not to participate in the rebellion. "I am addressing the leadership, commanders and fighters of PMC Wagner. Together, we have been walking a difficult path. We fought together, took risks, suffered losses, we won together. We are of the same blood, we are warriors. I urge you to stop, the enemy is only waiting for the political situation to deteriorate in our country. You cannot play into the enemy’s hands at this difficult time for the nation", he said.

Russian media were banned from broadcasting Prigozhin's statements. Instead, they were "advised" to cover the official positions of the Ministry of Defense and the Kremlin. After that, the hackers broke Russian television and began broadcasting statements by the leader of the Wagner PPK.

SOBR fighters of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia were sent by plane from Moscow to Belgorod. The "Fortress" plan was announced in the police departments of the Rostov region. The employees were alerted. The Fortress plan was introduced in Moscow. It provides for an emergency gathering of personnel and taking control of especially important objects of law enforcement agencies, as well as readiness to repel an external attack.

24 June 2023 - Saturday

Russian President Vladimir Putin responded to the Wagner Group and its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin in a speech to the nation. He said the actions of the rebels was a "betrayal" that will be punished. In an address early on 24 June 2023, Putin made comparisons to how World War I led to revolution and civil war inside Russia in 1917. "There will be decisive measures taken on stabilizing the situation in Rostov-on-Don," Putin told the nation.

Dmitry Rogozin, the former head of Roskosmos and the head of the Tsarskie Wolves volunteer group operating in the military operation zone, called on businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin to refrain from trying to "complicity with the enemy" and to support the front with all his might. "I know the situation at the front as well as Prigozhin and I have never concealed my position, but no matter how the armed rebellion is explained, it is still precisely an armed rebellion in the rear of a warring army. In war, you need to shove your political ambitions up your ass and support the front with all your might. Any attempts to weaken him are nothing more than aiding the enemy ,” wrote Rogozin.

The leader of Russia's Orthodox, meanwhile, Patriarch Kirill, called for "unity" and voiced support for Putin. "Today, when our brothers are fighting and dying on the frontlines... any attempt to sow discord within the country is the greatest possible crime that has no justification," Patriarch Kirill said in a statement. "I support the efforts of the head of the Russian state, aimed at not allowing turmoil in our country."

Russia warned Western countries against trying to use the situation in Russia for their own purposes, follows from a statement on the website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. "We warn Western countries against any hints of a possible use of the domestic situation in Russia to achieve their Russophobic goals," the ministry said in a statement.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the Wagner mutiny showed Russia was weak. “Everyone who chooses the path of evil destroys himself. Who sends columns of troops to destroy the lives of another country and cannot stop them from fleeing and betraying when life resists. Who terrorizes with missiles, and when they are shot down, humiliates himself to receive Shahed drones. Who despises people and throws hundreds of thousands into the war, in order to eventually barricade himself in the Moscow region from those whom he himself armed. For a long time, Russia used propaganda to mask its weakness and the stupidity of its government. And now there is so much chaos that no lie can hide it. And all this is one person, who again and again scares by the year 1917, although he is able to result in nothing else but this. Russia's weakness is obvious. Full-scale weakness. And the longer Russia keeps its troops and mercenaries on our land, the more chaos, pain, and problems it will have for itself later. It is also obvious. Ukraine is able to protect Europe from the spread of Russian evil and chaos.”

US President Joe Biden was briefed on the situation in Russia and Washington and “will be consulting with allies and partners on these developments”, National Security Council spokesman Adam Hodge said.

The Wagner insurrection followed Prigozhin's June 23 call for a "march of justice" to topple the Russian military leadership. The Federal Automobile Road M-4 "Don" is a major expressway, trunk road that links Moscow, Voronezh, Rostov-na-Donu and Krasnodar. The length of the road is 1542 km. In the Moscow region, on the bypass section of Novaya Usmanand Rogachevka , a bypass section of Aksai in the Rostov region, as well as from the border with the Republic of Adygea to the exit to the village of Saratovskaya, the road has a motorway regime , in other sections - an ordinary road regime (from 1B to 2nd categories). Number of traffic lanes: from 4 to 6 (km 21-1387); from 2 to 4 (km 1387-1543). The maximum permitted speed on sections of the route in the Moscow region was 110 km/h.

A huge traffic jam developed on the M4 highway to Moscow. Car traffic was blocked on Russia’s M-4 highway past Rostov-on-Don towards Aksay, according to TASS reported at the scene. All cars moving from Rostov-on-Don towards Aksay are being redirected back in the city, and police checkpoints have been reinforced.

Prigozhin announced on Telegram early on June 24 that his forces had taken control of the Russian military headquarters in the city, as well as its military sites and airport. "We are inside the [military] headquarters. It is 7:30 a.m.," Prigozhin said in a video. "Military sites in Rostov, including an airport, are under control." Prigozhin added that aircraft participating in Russia's war against Ukraine were "leaving as normal" and that his forces had taken the airport "so that the attack aviation would not strike us, but strike Ukrainians."

"Further Wagner units are moving north through Voronezh Oblast, almost certainly aiming to get to Moscow," British intelligence said. "With very limited evidence of fighting between Wagner and Russian security forces, some have likely remained passive, acquiescing to Wagner."

A column of equipment from PMC "Wagner" broke through the barrier of trucks on the highway. The corresponding video was posted by the telegram channel "Military Korps of the Russian Spring". "The scene of action, apparently, the Voronezh region", TC notes. The video shows the demolished trucks that the security forces set up on the route of the Wagner convoy.

The armed Wagner column reportedly came under fire after passing the city of Voronezh, located nearly 600 kilometers north of Rostov-on-Don and more than halfway to the Russian capital. The column included troop carriers and at least one tank on a flatbed truck Mercenaries from the Wagner Group entered the Lipetsk region 24 June 2023 some 300 kilometers (250 miles) south of Moscow, the governor said on Saturday afternoon. "Hardware of the Wagner mercenary group is moving across the territory of the Lipetsk region," Governor Igor Artamonov said on Telegram. "I remind you that residents are strongly recommended not to leave their houses or to make trips on any mode of transport."

Apparently, the regional authorities were not tasked with stopping the columns of the rebellious Wagner. Therefore, the governor only strongly recommended the residents of the region not to leave their homes and refuse to travel by any means of transport. “I understand all the inconveniences, but I earnestly ask you to help us and follow these recommendations. Friends, I hope for your understanding and prudence, Artamonov said.

The Governor of the Kursk region Roman Starovoit issued a statement regarding the unfolding situation around the actions of the Wagner PMC. In his telegram channel, the politician stated: “Friends, you know, the Kursk region closely cooperated with Wagner PMC in the training of fighters of voluntary people's squads of our region, and I myself went through this training. "After an open rebellion, many advise to cross out and remove all mention of this from the social networks of the Regional Administration, but I will not do this. Together we rejoiced at the success of the guys when we liberated Soledar and Artyomovsk, and we mourned together with the families of the dead soldiers. The ambitions of the leader should not cross out the past merits of ordinary fighters. I urge Yevgeny Prigozhin to abandon his plans, lay down his arms and prevent the development of an internal conflict in the country.”

Moscow has a counter-terrorist operation regime. The city has canceled or postponed previously announced public events. The mayor of the city urged citizens to remain calm and trust only official sources of information. In Moscow, Monday [26 June 2023] was declared a non-working day, follows from the statement of the mayor of the capital, Sergei Sobyanin, in the Telegram channel. "In order to minimize risks, I, within the framework of the operational headquarters, decided to declare Monday a non-working day - with the exception of government bodies and enterprises of a continuous cycle, the military-industrial complex, city services," the message said. Military equipment has been placed on the M-4 road leading to Rostov at the entrance to Moscow, and concrete barriers have been installed.

ChrisO_wiki reported the security forces in Moscow are reported to be utterly incapable of resisting a heavily armed force like Wagner. Police generals are said to considering which side to back, while forces on the ground are already defecting to Wagner.

On 24 June 2023 Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko revealed that he had spent the entire day negotiating with Yevgeny Prigozhin, as agreed upon with Russian President Vladimir Putin. As a result of the talks, the Wagner group leader accepted Lukashenko's proposal to stop the movement of his troops in Russia and take measures to de-escalate the situation. Putin guaranteed that the Wagner group fighters would have the opportunity to sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, return home, or move to Belarus.

The press service of the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko reported 24 June 2023 that Yevgeny Prigozhin accepted the proposal of the head of the republic to stop the advance of Wagner through Russia and take further steps to de-escalate tensions. It is specified that "on the table is a profitable and acceptable option for resolving the situation, with security guarantees for the fighters of the group."

The fighters of PMC "Wagner" deploy their columns and go back to the field camps, according to the press service of the head of the group Yevgeny Prigozhin in the Telegram channel. "Realizing all the responsibility for the fact that Russian blood will be shed on one of the sides, we turn around the columns and leave in the opposite direction to the field camps, according to the plan," he said.

Aftermath

The greatest challenge to Russian President Vladimir Putin in his more than two decades in power fizzled out after the rebellious mercenary commander who ordered his troops to march on Moscow abruptly reached a deal with the Kremlin to go into exile and sounded the retreat. Immediately after the start of the Wagner offensive. Putin fired several top army generals, including "Mariupol slaughterer" Mikhail Mizintsev and "armageddon general" Sergei Surovikin.

Faced with the threat of violent rebellion, Putin – a strongman who has ruled Russian politics with a rod of iron for 23 years – was pushed into the humiliating position of seeking reconciliation to end this challenge to his authority. When the Wagner Group headed for Moscow, it did so quickly and with no resistance, as if it marched through no man's land. It meant with scant obstruction along the way, advancing rapidly until it was just 200 kilometers away from Moscow, howling at the gates of the capital. The Russian army, police and security forces seemed to have melted away into nothing, so nobody showed up to protect Putin from their guns. There was no support for Putin among ordinary Russians, either. In fact, they welcomed the Wagner army with open arms.

What happened behind the scenes of the negotiations remained largely unknown. One of the most puzzling aspects of the events remained Prigozhin’s dramatic U-turn as his troops approached the capital for a showdown between the Wagner group and the Russian military establishment. Seemingly determined to oust Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and his right-hand man – armed forces Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov – Prigozhin had openly challenged Moscow's military leadership and was on his way to Moscow before making the stunning announcement of retreat. "The whole thing is a result of his [Prigozhin’s] isolation and relative weakness," said Danilo delle Fave, military strategy expert at the International Team for the Study of Security (ITSS) Verona, adding that “there has never been, in recent times, such a military crisis in a major country".

Possibly the Wagner group didn’t attempt to take over political power. It was to force Putin to negotiate the fate of Gerasimov and Shoigu. Prigozhin was hoping to convince Putin to take his side against the top brass at the ministry of defence. Possibly he thought that if he made a strong enough statement, Putin would side with him against the ‘corrupt’ military. The Wagner boss also may have hoped to be able to count on the support of certain factions that are hostile to Gerasimov to put additional pressure on the Russian president.

If Shoigu or Gerasimov are ousted, it will mean Putin went with what the anti-Shoigu faction wanted, meaning he can be pressured. If nothing happens, it will only make the anti-Shoigu faction more resolute, which he said could risk weakening the government.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on 26 June 2023 said that Wagner group troops would continue to operate in Mali and the Central African Republic following the rebellion led by their commander Yevgeny Prigozhin last weekend. Lavrov’s words came amid questions over the private militia’s role in Africa after more than five years of deployment to the continent.

Military units who took part in the suppression of the attempted armed mutiny on June 24, actually stopped a civil war in Russia, and acted clearly and harmoniously, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on 27 June 2023. "You defended the constitutional order, and our citizens’ lives, security and freedom. You saved our motherland from turmoil, and in fact prevented civil war. In these difficult moments, you acted clearly and harmoniously; through your deeds, you proved your loyalty to the people of Russia and the military oath," Putin said, addressing the security forces who quashed the insurrection. Putin also paid his respects to the military pilots who were killed while trying to take on the mutineers. "Our comrades-in-arms, pilots, died in the confrontation with the mutineers. They didn't flinch and honorably fulfilled the order and their military duty," he said.

Viktor Zolotov, who heads the Russian National Guard, believes Western spy agencies are likely to have had a hand in plotting the aborted Wagner armed mutiny in the country. According to him, the insurrection was inspired by the West and meshed with the ambitions of the leader of the Wagner private military company. A slew of 'planted leaks' about the conspiracy to commit this mutiny also came from the "Prigozhin camp".

"They [Western agents] had found out about it, as they said, a couple of weeks ahead of time. And I must say that such 'planted leaks' were also spread from the Prigozhin camp. Well, they were so narrowly focused to the effect that this mutiny was in the making and was supposed to take place from the 22nd to the 25th of the month. And that's exactly what happened. This shows that it was inspired by the West and, it seems, they goaded Prigozhin himself into taking this step, or maybe he was going too far with his ambitions, so to speak, and he wanted to go higher still," he told journalists. "I am not excluding the presence of Western intelligence agents there," Zolotov added.

The U.S. intelligence community "was aware" that the mutiny orchestrated by Prigozhin "was a possibility" and briefed Congress "accordingly" before it began, according to a source familiar with the issue, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

US President Joe Biden said, "We made clear we were not involved. We had nothing to do with this." Biden's message that the West was not involved was sent directly to the Russians through various diplomatic channels, White House national security spokesperson John Kirby told reporters. He did not characterize Russia's response.

Biden said 28 June 2023 he believed Putin had “absolutely” been weakened inside Russia by Prigozhin’s rebellion effort. But Biden, speaking to reporters at the White House, said it was “hard to tell” the extent to which Putin was diminished. “He’s clearly losing the war in Iraq,” Biden said, meaning to refer to Putin’s 16-month war against Ukraine. “He’s losing the war at home. And he has become a bit of a pariah around the world. And it’s not just NATO. It’s not just the European Union. It’s Japan. It’s ... 40 nations.”

Michael McFaul, a former U.S. ambassador to Russia, echoed Biden’s comment: "On balance, Putin is much weaker today than he was just four or five days ago. Elites in Russia, soldiers in Russia are all watching this and wondering, ‘What's happened to our leader?’

Russia's prime minister from 2000 to 2004, Mikhail Kasyanov, said that he believed the Wagner mutiny had weakened President Vladimir Putin considerably inside Russia. "The main impact is very easy and very simple," Kasyanov said. "Just the stability with Mr Putin." For 20 years, Kasyanov said, Russian propaganda had sought to assure people "that the main basis for Putin's rule is stability and potential prosperity." The rebellion staged by Russian private military company Wagner and its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin at the weekend, and Putin's response to it, had shattered this image, he said. "Prigozhin managed to destroy this myth, this image of stability."

"The convoy went through Rostov and Voronezh — both home to important garrisons," said Gustav Gressel, a military expert with the European Council on Foreign Relations. "Aside from the regular army units training there, this is where Russian troops receive their final preparations before being sent out on combat operations. That no one was on hand to oppose the Wagner fighters is very, very peculiar."

On 27 June 2023, The New York Times published an article citing US intelligence sources who believed General Sergei Surovikin and other high-ranking members of the Russian military had advance knowledge of Prigozhin's mutiny. Some observers, however, are skeptical of these claims. "Surovikin is currently head of the Russian air force, and these were the only troops to fight back against the Wagner troops and attack from the air. That doesn't really fit with the image of a traitor," said Gressel.

Mark Galeotti noted "Surovikin quickly issued a public appeal to Wagner mercs to stand down, making a clear statement that - contrary to previous suspicions he was close to Prigozhin - he was loyal to the Kremlin. This might have helped cleanse his record..." But Surovikin's video statement looked like a hostage video, taped under dureees, and Surovikin was uncharacteristically unshaven, and dressed in a plain uniform devoid of insignia.

Pro-Putin propagandist Pep Escobar claimed that "Once again, facts on the ground prove Putin is the undisputed champion of Russia. After keeping a strategic silence for a few hours, his intervention gathered full support from the civilian population, the FSB, the Chechens, the Army, the Communists, everyone.... Putin winning on all counts implies the whole civilian population – and the military – engaged into preserving him and the Russian institutions, as well as perfecting them. There’s absolutely no nation anywhere across the collective West where we find this level of citizen support.... So Putin is stronger than ever. But everyone should always keep this in mind: the one thing he can’t forgive is betrayal."

Alexander Dugin claimed this was an exercise in Sovereignty: “Only Sovereign Lukashenko, together with Sovereign Putin himself, confronted [Prighozin]…It turned out that many can frame the President and the people, acting in the shadows and apparently on his behalf, but saving the Fatherland in a critical situation is not their specialty.”

Writing in the Spectator, security expert Mark Galeotti said that unlike Putin’s inner circle, much of which consists of former KGB officers bitter at the collapse of the Soviet empire, the younger generation is not so much married to Putinism because of any ideology but because it was the easiest way to get ahead. Now they’re losing out. “The real threat to Putin is not that the military will turn against him – it is that they will not support him in a future crisis.” Others observe that the rational, technocratic parts of Putin’s elites aren’t disillusioned by the lack of democracy and human rights violations in Russia or war crimes in Ukraine – they are afraid that they won’t have a secure future alongside Putin anymore. Historians noted that previous revolts by military officers in Russia precipitated the collapse of the system. In 1917, General Lavr Kornilov marched on the then-capital St Petersburg in the last days of World War I. Later that year, the Bolsheviks seized power. Another attempted coup in 1991 was shortly followed by the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Putin had likely been irredeemably weakened by the attempted mutiny and his tame response, say analysts. While he might not face an imminent armed revolt, early evidence suggests that the rebellion could bleed him of support from sections of the Russian elite that until now have stood by him. Yet those who could potentially replace the Russian president are unlikely to offer a fundamentally more liberal alternative to Putin.

The leaders of Greece and Turkey agreed 12 July 2023 to resume talks and confidence-building measures as they hailed a new “positive climate” in their often fraught ties. The two neighbouring countries have been at odds for decades over several issues, including energy resources, overflights above the Aegean Sea and ethnically split Cyprus. Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who were both recently re-elected, met on the sidelines of a NATO summit in Lithuania’s capital, Vilnius. “It is to the benefit of both countries that the positive climate formed in bilateral relations over recent months has continuity and consistency,” the two leaders’ offices said in identical but separate statements. “The two sides agreed to build on the positive momentum and activate multiple channels of communication between the two countries in the coming period,” added the statement, noting that the two leaders look forward to “more frequent contact at all levels”.