It is a very hot summer world-wide, but it is 
nowhere as hot as in Russian-occupied Crimea. 
Must be such a blast to be over there.

Russo-Ukraine War - September 2023

A number of claims and counterclaims are being made on the Ukraine-Russia conflict on the ground and online. While GlobalSecurity.org takes utmost care to accurately report this news story, we cannot independently verify the authenticity of all statements, photos and videos.

On 24 February 2022, Ukraine was suddenly and deliberately attacked by land, naval and air forces of Russia, igniting the largest European war since the Great Patriotic War. Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a "special military operation" (SVO - spetsialnaya voennaya operatsiya) in Ukraine. The military buildup in preceeding months makes it obvious that the unprovoked and dastardly Russian attack was deliberately planned long in advance. During the intervening time, the Russian government had deliberately sought to deceive the world by false statements and expressions of hope for continued peace.

"To initiate a war of aggression... is not only an international crime; it is the supreme international crime differing only from other war crimes in that it contains within itself the accumulated evil of the whole." [Judgment of the International Military Tribunal]

On or about 01 September 2023 the recently formed 25th Combined Arms Army [roughly equivalent to an American Corps] began a relief-in-place operation to enable the battle hardened 41st Combined Arms Army to redeploy from the Kupyansk-Svatove salient at the very north of the Eastern Front, to the Orikhiv salient on the Southern Front. This movement came days after the experienced 76th Air Assault Division [VDV] was also redeployed to the Orikhiv salient. Over the early days of September. Ukrainian forces had brushed aside the initial echelon of the Surovikin Line, and embarked on a deep penetration of temporarily occupied territory, leading towards the Sea of Azov and severing Russian ground lines of communication. The relatively weak 25th CAA would either serve to defend a line which Ukraine did not seek to assault, or might possibly serve as bait to the Ukrainian forces to replicate their rapid advance into Luhansk Oblast in late 2022.

Forecasters predict a hot September 2023, with a lack of rain in most regions. Fuzzy atmospheric fronts will bring local rains mainly to the Right Bank of the country. In the eastern and southern regions, there will be a significant risk of increased drought. In the third decade of September, against the background of a reduction in daylight hours, frosts will appear on the soil surface. In the western regions and in the far north of Ukraine, on some nights, there may be sub-zero temperatures.

The more sandy soil of the south of the Zaporizhzhia region contrasts with black soil in other regions, which turns into mud during the rainy autumn months. The rainy season will not be able to prevent the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the south of Ukraine. Mykola Beleskov, a researcher at the Kyiv National Institute of Strategic Studies, stated this to the Financial Times. "Since most of the soil in southern Ukraine remains firm even during rain, Ukrainian troops will still be able to maneuver in winter. Time is not necessarily a limiting factor, as some people believe," the analyst added.

“Trading territory for a NATO umbrella? It is ridiculous,” Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Mr. Zelensky, wrote on X, formerly Twitter. “That means deliberately choosing the defeat of democracy, encouraging a global criminal, preserving the Russian regime, destroying international law, and passing the war on to other generations.”

With Western media reports increasingly portraying the counteroffensive as a failure and its objectives as unattainable, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba declared on 01 September 2023 that “criticizing the slow pace of the counteroffensive is equal to spitting into the face of the Ukrainian soldier who sacrifices his life every day,” before asking Western nations to supply Ukraine with more weapons. Kuleba claimed that "having entrenched on the flanks of Robotyne, we are opening the way to Tokmak and, eventually, Melitopol and the administrative border with Crimea."

Russia has always been and remains “absolutely invincible,” President Vladimir Putin told a group of students at an open lesson marking the start of the academic year on 01 September 2023. The mentality of the Russian people makes it impossible for the country to be defeated by anyone, he added. “And here I understood why we won the Great Patriotic War,” the president said, referring to the Soviet struggle against Nazi Germany in World War II. “One cannot defeat a people with such a mentality,” he said, adding that “we have been absolutely invincible. And we remain as such now.”

Anatol Lieven of the Quincy Institute suggested "Elite fears of Russian defeat are linked to an ultimate fear of Russian anarchy, which is shared by much of the population at large. They actually agree with some of the toughest anti-Russian elements in the US and eastern Europe: that complete defeat in Ukraine would lead to the fall of the Putin regime and that this in turn could lead to a period of chaos that would gravely weaken or even destroy the Russian Federation."/p>

After three months of a stalemate, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) seem to be finally making progress against Russia in the south-eastern offensive. Western experts accused the Armed Forces of Ukraine of ineffective operational control of the troops, while Ukrainians remarked that the aid provided to them was insufficient and too slowly delivered. At one point, the military’s Commander-in-Chief Valeriy Zaluzhny even said the Americans do not understand the nature of the ongoing conflict, and are trying to apply their experience of fighting partisan detachments to the realities of the current war. /p>

By 01 September 2023 Ukrainian forces were exhausting the entire Russian defense group on the first line. Artillery pounding them, followed by mechanized infantry sweeps, followed by ground troops. The waves are relentless and because no one wants to report the first lines are breached, the Russians had poured everything into holding it. When the line finally breaks there won't be anyone left to man the second and third lines to any effect. Russia prioritized defensive tactics throughout the summer, but also attempted to launch its own offensive in some directions. /p>

While initially the counteroffensive was carried out by the 46th airmobile brigade and 47th mechanized brigade, eventually the Ukrainians were forced to pull the 116th, 117th and 118th mechanized brigades, National Guard forces, units of the 71st Jaeger and 1st tank brigades, and many separate units, including the special forces of the Marine Special Operations Center. Finally, in mid-August, Ukraine played its trump card and introduced the 82nd Air Assault Brigade, armed with US Stryker armored fighting vehicles, German Marder infantry fighting vehicles, and British Challenger tanks./p>

The Ukrainian Armed Forces concentrated its entire marine corps in the Vremevsky ledge direction: four brigades reinforced by artillery, including the 23rd and 31st mechanized brigades, units of the 1st and 4th tank brigades, as well as territorial defense forces and aviation. After they captured the Levadnoye-Ravnopol-Makarovka line, for a month and a half Ukrainian troops advanced in the fields along the flanks of Staromayorsky and Urozhaynoe. Eventually, this advance allowed Kiev to push Russian troops out of the area and pose a threat to Staromlinovka./p>

A possible Russian offensive in the direction of the Oskol River posed a threat to the Ukrainians, since it could result in the loss of an important site captured by Kiev in October 2022. This forced the Ukrainian military to transfer newly formed brigades to the area. In this way, the 88th, 41st, 32nd, 43rd, 44th, 42nd, and 21st mechanized brigades were pulled here from the south. Also, it is possible that the 8th brigade and the 13th Jaeger brigade are presently moving towards Kupyansk./p>

The Russian invaders were forced to use in defense, in particular in the Zaporizhzhia direction, assault troops, the so-called “elite”, since the reserves of the RF Armed Forces are depleted. This opinion was voiced by military observer Denis Popovich on the FREEDOM TV channel 01 September 2023. “We are well aware that, as the name of the assault units implies, these military personnel are intended for a slightly different purpose – in order to storm the enemy’s defensive formations, no matter who is in front of them. And the very fact of the appearance of these units in the place where it is necessary to defend indicates that the reserves of the Russians are knocked out, ”Popovich noted.

Now the Russian command is forced to abandon everything that is at hand, and at the same time rely on the “elite” – the airborne troops of the Russian Federation, the observer says. “Therefore, they spend “elite” and try to keep the defense with the troops that they have at hand. That is, there is obviously a crisis of reserves. This is exactly what we were looking for. And now we are already seeing the result – the offensive units, the “elite” are rushing in order to hold the positions that the Russian occupying forces are losing, ”the guest of the air emphasized.

At the same time, Popovich noted that, as the Ukrainian military themselves say, the invaders still have reserves, but they dispose of them in a very strange way. “Those people who are now advancing from our side on the Zaporizhzhia front say that the Russians have enough reserves, but they dispose of them in a very interesting way. The invaders enter the positions, and fall under the fire of the Ukrainian artillery, the artillery knocks them out. And then we advance, occupy the positions to which the Russian troops were thrown. Then this process is repeated over and over again, and thus the APUs advance. That is, the reserves of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are being knocked out gradually. And now we see that this leads to the fact that they are already removing elite units, forcing them to keep the defense in those places where, in fact, they are not intended for this, ”summed up the observer.

Ukrainian forces managed to breach the Russian defense line, with minefields, anti-tank trenches, and dragonss teeth, fortified with artillery support, but had not yet opened up a large enough breach for the Western-supplied mechanised armor to pass through. In August Ukraine directed accurate counter-battery fire that has effectively neutralised some of Russian artillery. US-supplied cluster munitions had a devastating effect on Russia’s ground forces. Ukrainian troops focused on expanding the breaches in the defensive line to create openings for Western tanks and APC to pass through and attack Russian troops in the rear of the defence lines.

Ukraine's forces in recent days have made "notable progress" against Russian troops in the south of the country, a White House spokesman said on September 1 as Ukrainian officials reported Russian missile strikes overnight. White House national security spokesman John Kirby told reporters that the United States had seen progress near the Zaporizhzhya region in the last 72 hours. "They have achieved some success against that second line of Russian defenses," Kirby said. He also acknowledged criticism of Ukraine's counteroffensive "by anonymous officials," saying this was "not helpful." Kirby added "Any objective observer of this counteroffensive, you can't deny...that they have made progress now".

The Institute for the Study of War reported 02 September 2023 "Russian lateral redeployments and the immediate commitment of intended operational reserves suggest that short term reinforcement needs are impeding intended long-term reconstitution efforts. The redeployment of elements of the 41st CAA to southern Ukraine is the third major Russian lateral redeployment since the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in June and the second in recent weeks. Russian formations at the division level (and in some areas lower) defending in southern Ukraine have done so without rotation since the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, and these forces have committed substantial material, manpower, and effort to hold back Ukrainian advances. The second lateral deployment in the span of a few weeks suggests an increasing Russian concern about the stability of Russian defenses in light of Ukrainian advances around Robotyne."

By simultaneously repelling the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south of the country and attacking in the east itself, Russian forces risk dividing their forces, the UK Defense Ministry said on 02 September 2023 in its intelligence update. Russia is continuing its advances near Kupiansk in eastern Ukraine and wants to force the Ukrainian forces to split their units between the south and east, the update said. "Given that Russia has made modest gains near Kupiansk since the Ukrainian counter-offensive began in June, they are highly likely seeking to capitalize" by continuing to resource this area of the front, the ministry said. However, this could force Russia itself to split up its troops in order to prevent a breakthrough by Ukraine around Orikhiv to the south, according to the update.

The New York Times reported 02 September 2023 that while small detachments of Ukrainian troops can pass through minefields more easily than large armored convoys , Russian forces shifted their tactics in response. “They will lace a pasture filled with mines with a flammable agent, for instance,” NYT wrote. “Once the Ukrainians get to work clearing an opening, the Russians will drop a grenade from a drone, igniting a sea of fire and explosions.” Paved roads are therefore safer for the Ukrainians, as mines are easier to spot and remove. However, these roads are dotted with Russian machine gun nests and under constant drone surveillance. Should a Ukrainian unit succeed in capturing a house or building, hovering drones alert Russian forces, who respond by launching salvos of rockets and shells on the location. From the moment they are spotted, one Ukrainian soldier told NYT that his men have “seconds to dive for cover,” the newspaper paraphrased.

British Defence Intelligence assessed 02 September 2023 "Russian forces, primarily composed of the 58 Combined Arms Army and Russian Airborne Forces elements, seek to halt the Ukrainian counter-offensive whilst maintaining their own offensive on the northern axis around Kupiansk. Russian forces are likely seeking to distract Ukraine from its counter-offensive, thereby forcing it to divide its forces between Orikhiv and Kupiansk."

Russians redeployed military forces from the temporarily occupied Crimea to the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions to replenish their losses. The relevant statement was made by Head of the United Coordinating Press Center of the Southern Defense Forces Natalia Humeniuk during a nationwide telethon 07 Septmber 2023. “It is quite obvious that they are bringing up their forces to the Zaporizhzhia direction and are trying to strengthen the Kherson direction. [Russian] troops [in the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson sectors] used to be a rather powerful group that supplied forces to the east, and now they themselves need to improve their condition,” Humeniuk told.

Zelensky said 08 September 2023 that Russian air superiority was "stopping" Kyiv's counteroffensive, complaining of slow Western arms deliveries and sanctions on Russia. "If we are not in the sky and Russia is, they stop us from the sky. They stop our counteroffensive," Zelensky said, calling for more "powerful and long-range" weapons. Arms deliveries to Kyiv and new rounds of sanctions on Russia were becoming "complicated and slower", he added.

Tendar wrote 10 September 2023 "Ukrainian forces are cracking the Russian defense lines step by step. They drive a chisel into the lines and then widen the rift by moving into the flanks. This might not look fast, but it is how you break defense networks and it is working. This is, however, not even the most important news.

"More importantly are the Russian troop movements in that sector. The deployment of the Russian 76th Guards Air Assault Division is an admission that the Ukrainian progress has reached such critical state for the Russian invasion army that they are even forced to deploy one of their offensive forces for defense operations. It does not only prove the level of desperation but also diminishes Russian capabilities for offensive operations. Furthermore, the Russian "offensive" at Kupyansk-Kreminna is now completely exposed as what it is: a diversionary attack....

"I can only re-emphasize that the real battle in the South is about logistics and supply lines. Ukrainians not only hammer the frontline but the whole logistical network of the Russian army. The more Russian troops move in, the harder it gets for them to sustain that level of logistical support, a proficiency where they already proved to be weak Additionally, Russians are taking more and more risks by not only bringing more of their troops into Ukrainian artillery range but also exposing other frontline sectors....

"The strategy of the Ukrainian Army might not look spectacular, but it works, when continued to its logical end. It is exactly how an army would operate in order to soften up an entrenched enemy to a point where it is untenable to continue to fight and withdraw. All what is needed is stamina and patience."

Kyiv’s recapture 18 September 2023 of Klishchiivka, a village south of Bakhmut, had a highly symbolic value for Ukrainian forces. But there was also a strategic dimension to Ukraine’s efforts to retake Bakhmut. It obliged the Russian army to maintain a force of 50,000 men to defend that area, which the Ukrainians hope could give them an advantage here in the south of the country where the most important thrust of the counteroffensive is still underway.

In the conditions in which hostilities are currently taking place on the territory of Ukraine, the weather factor does not have much influence. This was announced 26 September 2022, by military expert Serhii Grabskyi on the air of FREEDOM TV channel. “We very often and a lot, especially recently, discuss the weather factor, the autumn factor. But, to be honest, in the conditions in which the hostilities are going on now, this factor supposedly does not have the colossal importance that it could have in the case of conducting some massive operations with the use of a large amount of weapons and equipment. Because in this situation, the battles have such a local character and, in general, are characterized by the fact that combat operations are conducted by infantry units and with the support of artillery. That is, the involvement of equipment is minimal,” he said.

According to the expert, the factor of decreasing daylight can have a greater impact, because it limits the use of drones, in particular, in the visual mode. “That is, objectively, we can talk about a certain decrease in the intensity of the use of drones. And in the case, of course, of a breakthrough in the enemy’s positions, if we manage to introduce equipment into this breakthrough, then it will be about more maneuverable actions using armored weapons and military equipment, mechanized and tank units of the Defense Forces of Ukraine. But today, when there are fierce and brutal battles for the breakthrough of the defense line, for the expansion of the corridor, especially in the Zaporozhye direction, it would be inappropriate to exaggerate the factor of weather conditions as a factor that can seriously weaken the hostilities or reduce the intensity of the hostilities,” said Grabskyi.