It is a very hot summer world-wide, but it is 
nowhere as hot as in Russian-occupied Crimea. 
Must be such a blast to be over there.

Russo-Ukraine War - October 2023

A number of claims and counterclaims are being made on the Ukraine-Russia conflict on the ground and online. While GlobalSecurity.org takes utmost care to accurately report this news story, we cannot independently verify the authenticity of all statements, photos and videos.

On 24 February 2022, Ukraine was suddenly and deliberately attacked by land, naval and air forces of Russia, igniting the largest European war since the Great Patriotic War. Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a "special military operation" (SVO - spetsialnaya voennaya operatsiya) in Ukraine. The military buildup in preceeding months makes it obvious that the unprovoked and dastardly Russian attack was deliberately planned long in advance. During the intervening time, the Russian government had deliberately sought to deceive the world by false statements and expressions of hope for continued peace.

"To initiate a war of aggression... is not only an international crime; it is the supreme international crime differing only from other war crimes in that it contains within itself the accumulated evil of the whole." [Judgment of the International Military Tribunal]

Ukrainians are doing everything possible to make the current war the last in Europe and the world, continuing step by step to push the Russian army out of our land. "It should be understood that Ukrainians are doing everything to make this the last war in Europe and in the world. And this is why we are fighting – for the sake of respect for international law, human rights, sovereignty, territorial integrity, respect for life," Zelensky told Sky TG24 in an interview 04 October 2023. The Head of State emphasized that the world cannot get tired of helping Ukraine, because our country is repelling the Russian aggressor.

"Of course, everyone wants swift developments on the battlefield, but it happens differently. The full-scale war has been ongoing for the second year in a row. Everyone is getting tired: the land itself is getting tired, people are getting tired - it's obvious," Zelensky said. The President stressed that the Ukrainians are highly motivated. “We are going to defeat the enemy. The initiative is now in our hands. Even if it's slow, but every day we are driving Russia out of our land step by step,” he said.

In the case of a "freeze" of the current battlefield situation in Ukraine, Russia will be able by 2028 to restore its military potential degraded by the Ukrainians and will have enough forces to invade other countries, including the Baltic states. This was stated 05 October 2023 by President Volodymyr Zelensky, who spoke at the opening of the summit of the European Political Community in Granada (Spain). "I will be honest with you, as I always am. Russia is now considering various scenarios for the coming years. One of them is particularly dangerous. If there is some pause in this aggression against Ukraine – any freezing of the situation, there will be a new critical moment. 2028," he said.

According to Zelensky, "if Russia is allowed to adapt now, by 2028, the Kremlin will be able to restore the military potential that we destroyed, and it will have enough strength to attack the countries in focus of Russian expansion."

"In addition to Ukraine, these are definitely the Baltic states and definitely other countries where Russian contingents are present. This is clear information from our intelligence. We are signaling it to you," the Ukrainian leader said.

" Please remember that the most dangerous enemy is the one who made conclusions and prepared for the next attack based on these conclusions. Moscow clearly outlines its ambition – to capture more imperial space, to prevent Europe from being a place of free nations and working democracies, to break European unity. And war is Russia’s basic tool for this – a tool to enslave or to manipulate others," he said.

Russian President Vladimir Putin's plan to win the protracted Ukrainian conflict by betting on Western fatigue from helping Kyiv appears to have begun to bear fruit. This opinion was expressed by Business Insider reporter Tom Porter 06 October 2023. According to him, Western analysts have long believed that the most important part of the Russian leader’s Ukrainian strategy was the intention to “continue the fight until the West gets tired of helping Ukraine.” In the opinion of the author, the fact that this bet finally worked is supported not only by the refusal of the US Congress to provide Kiev with a new package of financial assistance, but also by the victory in the parliamentary elections in Slovakia of the party advocating an end to aid to Ukraine, as well as the growing popularity of the right-wing populist party in Germany the Alternative for Germany party, which maintains ties with Russia.

Porter cites the former head of the US Central Intelligence Agency's (CIA) Russia analysis unit, George Beebe, who believes that falling motivation to support Kiev in the US and Europe "could feed off each other, which in turn undermines morale in Ukraine ". Beebe does not rule out that the combination of these factors could lead to a turning point, when “the gradual weakening of Western support for Ukraine will result in a sharp reduction or stop.”

The U.S. Congress passed a bill over the weekend that would allow federal government spending to continue in the absence of a coherent federal budget for fiscal year 2024. However, at the initiative of the opposition Republican Party of the United States, provisions on the allocation of new large financial assistance to Ukraine were excluded from this document.

Ukraine’s counteroffensive succeeded in wresting back half the territory Russia captured earlier in 2023, notably breaching Russia’s vaunted “Surovikin line” of defence, weakening Russian logistics by striking deep into Crimea, and depriving Russia of control of the western Black Sea. Russia launched a series of small-scale offensives in the 85th week of its war with Ukraine, appearing to try and freeze Kyiv’s four-month-old counteroffensive by fixing its forces in place.

These tactical operations were aimed at freezing what has been a slow but steady Ukrainian advance ahead of Russian presidential elections, said Igor Girkin, a Russian military officer who organised the Russian militia that has fought the Ukrainian army since Donetsk and Luhansk declared they were seceding in 2014. “With a 99 percent probability, the Kremlin decided to freeze the war until the elections, that is, until March 2024,” wrote Girkin, who goes by the nom de guerre Strelkov, in a letter posted by his wife on social media.

Russian forces near Robotyne and Verbove were busy re-mining front lines previously cleared by Ukrainian forces and slowing them down, said one Russian military blog calling itself Paratrooper’s Diary. “Although enemy armoured vehicles are increasingly appearing in the Robotyne-Verbove section, the enemy has reduced the movement time due to mined areas,” the blogger said. “Our sappers manage to re-mine areas already cleared by the enemy.”

As many as three Russian battalions attacked Ukrainian defences in October near Zherebyanky, west of Robotyne, claiming to have advanced 2km (1.2 miles). They launched a battalion-level offensive near Huliaipole on the southern front, advancing “several hundred metres”, according to one Russian reporter. And they stepped up efforts to capture Avdiivka, an eastern city they surrounded to the north and south with a pincer movement.

Despite Russian spoiling attacks, Ukrainian forces pressed on with their counteroffensive. In their southern salient, they marginally advanced south of Robotyne on October 6 and broadened their salient westwards towards the village of Kopani on October 7. They also attempted to expand that salient east, towards Novofedorivka, on October 10.

In Avdiyivka direction, Ukrainian defenders courageously hold their defense, repelled 10 enemy attacks in the area of Avdiyivka and another eight attacks – in the areas east of Stepove and south-east of Sieverne in Donetsk region. The invaders launched more than 10 airstrikes near Avdiyivka. About 10 settlements, including Keramik, Stepove, Avdiyivka, Opytne, Pervomayske, and Nevelske in Donetsk region, came under enemy artillery and mortar fire.

On October 10, Russian troops significantly intensified near Avdiivka. They tried to make a breakthrough in a direction that has not been given to them not only since the beginning of a full-scale invasion - but since 2014. Russia attacked with forces of up to three battalions, with a large number of tanks and other armored vehicles, supported by aviation and artillery. Russia had recently transferred forces here from the Luhansk region (part of the 41st Combined Arms Army and the 90th Tank Division). Previously, the so-called 1st and 2nd army corps of the "DPR" and "LPR", that is, mobilized from Donetsk and Luhansk, operated in the Avdiivka area. In the first echelon of the attack, the Russians used tanks, but in the offensive it was primarily armored combat vehicles.

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the morning briefing on October 11 noted that in the Avdiyiv direction, the enemy with forces of up to three battalions -- between 2,000 and 3,000 men -- supported by tanks and armored vehicles, advanced in the areas of Avdiivka, the villages of Tonenko, Keramik, and Pervomaisky of the Donetsk region. The Ukrainian defenders repelled all attacks, preventing the loss of positions.

It is reported that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation lost a colossal amount of equipment and manpower. The Armed Forces of Ukraine repelled the Russian attack on October 10, which involved up to 2,000 invaders, several dozen tanks, and more than a hundred armored vehicles. The Russians also used artillery, aviation, and attacked with missiles in the offensive.

Tatarigami from Frontelligence Insight noted " this offensive featured an unprecedented deployment of armored vehicles, which marked a departure from their prior reluctance to engage in large-scale armored assaults, especially following the infamous Vuhledar assault in the winter of 2023. The substantial presence of tanks and APCs underscores the Russian forces' intent to carry out rapid and overwhelming offensives on the flank and rear."

Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun, spokesperson for the joint press center of the defense forces of Tavria direction, said during the United News telethon 12 October 2023: "Now the enemy has thrown a lot of infantry and equipment precisely in Avdiivka direction. Our soldiers are actively decimating the enemy, destroying equipment massively. Currently, a slight decrease in the number of armored vehicles is already being recorded, but the enemy is moving forward, trying to advance with infantry. The enemy sees Avdiivka as an opportunity to gain a significant victory and turn the tide of hostilities. If, for example, at the beginning of the large-scale invasion, the enemy considered Avdiivka as something insignificant, then today the capture or encirclement of Avdiivka could be the utmost achievement for them at this stage. Therefore, the enemy actively uses aviation and continues active offensive actions," Shtupun said.

Defense forces of Ukraine are going to continue the counteroffensive in the winter. This was stated by the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the US Armed Forces, General Charles Brown, at a joint press conference with US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin in Brussels on October 11. "I believe that we are putting Ukraine in a good position. I understand that the situation becomes more difficult in the winter months, but Ukraine intends to continue its offensive operations during the winter months," the American general replied.

Russian war correspondent Marat reported: "... near Kleshcheevka, on the right front of the Bakhmut defense, our paratroopers from the 106th division, which had been holding the defense here for more than four months, unexpectedly launched a counterattack, occupying several enemy strongholds. The same is true in the Rabotino sector – the 1430th and 70th regiments, who heroically fought here for many days, have been conducting regular counterattacks for the third week.

As many as three Russian battalions were involved in the offensive near Avdiyivka, the Ukrainian military's general staff said on October 10. The new Russian offensive in the Donetsk region, near Liman and Avdeevka, did not come as a surprise. The United States is confident that the Ukrainian Defense Forces will repel the enemy’s attack. This was stated 15 October 2023 during a briefing by the coordinator of strategic communications of the United States National Security Council, John Kirby, “As was the case during Russia’s failed winter offensive last year, the Russian military appears to be using wave attack tactics where they throw masses of poorly trained soldiers directly onto the battlefield without proper equipment,” Kirby compared. “The Ukrainians are working hard to repel these offensive maneuvers. And, as it seems, this is what is happening. The progress of Russian units, even where it exists, looks very meager,” emphasized the coordinator of strategic communications at the US National Security Council.

Vitaliy Barabash, the head of the Avdiivka city military administration, emphasized that 1,618 civilians still remain in Avdiivka, despite the fact that the escalation of hostilities has resulted in casualties among the population. “It does not make people very happy and pushes them to evacuate. They go, but not as they would like. Most likely, this pushed those people who wanted to leave due to the approach of winter to this aggravation, and they talked about it openly, that we will leave”.

On October 10th, Russian forces launched a ground offensive from Krasnohorivka and Vodiane, aiming to encircle Avdiivka. This assault featured an unusual use of armored vehicles, departing from their prior reluctance in large-scale armored attacks. The significant number of tanks and APCs highlighted the Russian forces' intention for swift and overwhelming offensives on the flank and rear. They used artillery, air support, and their armored units to suppress, overrun, and at times, capture Ukrainian positions. The most conservative estimate suggested that the Russian side suffered a minimum of 36 vehicle losses, which include abandoned, damaged, or destroyed vehicles. These losses predominantly consist of APCs, tanks of various configurations, and transportation vehicles. President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed Ukrainian citizens on the 600th day of full-scale war. He thanked everyone who fights and works for the freedom of the country. “600. The will that does not give up, gains freedom. Freedom based on unity always prevails. The point is not to waste time. Not to lose unity. Not to let doubts corrode the will. Every day we must add to Ukraine's strength. Every day we must destroy the occupier. Every day we must do everything possible to ensure that the future of Ukrainians belongs only to Ukrainians,” the Head of State posted.

According to the Ukrainian General Staff, Russian forces suffered 1,380 casualties in Avdiivka. They also lost 55 tanks and 120 armored personnel vehicles. The Russian military in fighting around Avdiivka likely suffered its worst combat losses since mid-February 2023. Russia lost five times more military equipment than Ukraine in its week-long assault on Avdiivka. By one estimate, after the first week, Russia experienced 3000 casualties [KIA + WIA], with 2 regiments of convicts from Storm Z were almost completely destroyed. And the 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade suffered unbelievably high losses. UK Defence Intelligence assessed 17 October 2023 that Russia has highly likely begun a coordinated offensive across multiple axes in the east of Ukraine. Russian forces in Donetsk were conducting a combined arms offensive on the heavily defended town of Avdiivka, which has been on the front line since 2014. The town is a major obstacle in preventing Russian forces from their wider objective of taking control of Donetsk Oblast.

Russia's attack is likely being carried out with multiple armoured battalions, which are attempting to envelop the town. It is likely to be the most significant offensive operation undertaken by Russia since at least January 2023. Entrenched Ukrainian forces have so far likely held back the Russian advance, with the latter sustaining heavy equipment and personnel losses. Slow progress and high casualties have likely triggered a change in messaging from Russia, from an offensive to 'active-defence', as successfully clearing Avdiivka looks increasingly unlikely in the short term.

President Vladimir Putin made an unannounced visit 18 October 2023 to the headquarters of Russia’s Southern Military District, which oversees the military operation against Ukraine, and held a closed-door meeting with high-ranking commanders. The president met with Army General Valery Gerasimov, the head of the General Staff, who briefed him on the progress of the country’s military operation against Kiev. Gerasimov said that the “joint group of forces [in Ukraine] is carrying out missions in accordance with the plan of the operation.”

On 20 October 2023 General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces, said troops faced a renewed Russian onslaught in the eastern city of Avdiivka. “The enemy is not relenting in attempts to break through our defences and surround [Avdiivka],” Zaluzhniy wrote on Telegram. He said the Russians were bringing in assault units and large amounts of armoured equipment as well as deploying aircraft and artillery. Russian accounts of the fighting said its forces had destroyed a command point near Avdiivka and repelled 11 Ukrainian attacks near Kupiansk.

The Russian military is unsuccessfully trying to capture Avdiivka, and the loss ratio near the city is 1:5. For the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Sergei Shoigu and the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (RF Armed Forces) Valery Gerasimov, Avdiivka is the only chance to remain in command posts and save not only their careers, but also their freedom, which is why maximum forces and resources have been devoted to this direction. This opinion was expressed on the FREEDOM TV channel by candidate of historical sciences, professor at the University of Prague, military expert Yuri Fedorov.

"Then it became known that [Russian President Vladimir] Putin was going to come to Rostov and meet there with the chief of the general staff. General Gerasimov and his subordinates got scared and decided that Putin needed to make a gift and find some kind of success in Avdiivka. But again, nothing worked out. The only result of these crazy attacks is very heavy losses,” he explained.

U.S.-based Institute for the Study of the War [ISW] reported that the units of two Marine Infantry Brigades stormed the Dnipro, landing on the left bank in Kherson region on October 17-18. Early on October 18, two closely watched Russian war bloggers reported that troops from Ukraine's 35th and 36th Marine Infantry Brigades had crossed the Dnieper, about 8 kilometers upriver from the now-destroyed Antonivskiy Bridge, in Kherson city. One report said units reached the village of Pishchanivka, about 2 kilometers southeast of the riverbank. "The very fact of the presence of Ukraine's armed forces on our shore is not news," one blogger known as Two Majors wrote on October 18. "However, the movement of reconnaissance, electronic warfare, and communications systems to the front line of defense is a clear sign."

The tactical success of the assault detachments of the 36th brigade creates the preconditions for a more active entry of the Katran strike group into battles in the Kherson direction. This is indirectly confirmed by the movement of counter-battery weapons to the contact line, such as the Cobra and AN/TPQ-36 radars, as well as Bukovel electronic warfare stations, which, as a rule, are kept at a distance because of their value.

On 18 October 2023, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported that Russian troops stopped the activities of four sabotage and reconnaissance groups of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the areas of the settlements of Podstepnoye and Poyma, and destroyed up to 70 Ukrainian military personnel. This was stated by the Russian regional governor Vladimir Saldo. “The enemy’s attempts to gain a foothold on the left bank [of the Dnieper] did not bring him any results. The fighters of the Dnepr group of troops inflict a heavy defeat on the enemy, the losses of the militants of the armed formations of the Kiev regime are very large. In the area of the villages of Podstepnoye and Poyma, Kherson region, the activities of four sabotage and reconnaissance groups were suppressed Their remnants requested evacuation and, under fire, are retreating to the Dnieper along the Antonovsky railway bridge,” Saldo wrote in his Telegram channel.

President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky, gave the order to the commander of the Ukrainian group “Tavria ” Alexander Tarnavsky to conduct an amphibious operation in the Kherson region. Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny , as some sources write, opposed this “adventure” associated with large losses of personnel, without the slightest chance of success, but politicians did not hear him. The Ukrainian president believed this is the only way to return the interest of the “world community” to the Ukrainian theater of military operations.

Russian sources claim the result of the landing of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Marines on the left bank in terms of the “quality” of the bloody picture exceeded all Kiev’s expectations: Russian units did not allow the Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers to gain a foothold on new bridgeheads, and the entire coastline was littered with the bodies of Ukrainian militants.

Chief spokesman for Operational Command South, Natalia Humeniuk, commented 22 October 2023 that purging the left bank is needed to "make life easier for the right bank" as the invaders keep shelling and bombing it, including from the air. Therefore, the priority of our defense forces is now "to facilitate the life of the civilian population.... So we’re not talking about any large-scale advance, it’s routine combat work, the results of which can be announced only once there’s a solid result," the official explained.

Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said 19 October 2023 that "Russia benefits from the war in the Middle East". However, he said that Ukraine's partners were "confident" that "politically", the Israel-Hamas conflict "should not overshadow what is happening in Ukraine". Kuleba accused Russia of supporting Hamas because the war distracts attention from Ukraine. He claimed that Ukraine saw stepped-up Russian propaganda activity in Arabic on the eve of the Hamas attack, as well as the movement of Russian satellites "closer to the future zone of conflict". But most importantly, he said, Russia is trying to "change the whole narrative" about the war in Ukraine. "Politically, Russia does benefit from the war in the Middle East," he claimed.

Kuleba denied reports that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had refused an offer from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to visit Israel, saying that Zelensky was the first foreign leader to propose such a trip. At the time, Kuleba noted, no foreign dignitaries had yet visited Israel. "The offer was not rejected, Israel did ask to hold this visit at a later stage," he said.

Russian propagandists and officials did not hide their hopes that due to the aggravation in the Middle East, Washington will be forced to “shift attention” from Ukraine to Israel. To this end, the following statements are promoted: The United States is incapable of supporting Ukraine and Israel at the same time in terms of resources; The Middle East is a more important region for the United States than Eastern Europe. Israel, unlike Ukraine, has the documented status of a military ally of the United States; or The United States will be forced to redirect resources to Israel that were previously intended for Ukraine.

The escalation in the Middle East was perceived by Moscow as a “window of opportunity” to weaken its enemies — Ukraine and its international partners. Therefore, Russian propaganda was actively involved in forming the necessary information background.

The Defense Forces of Ukraine repelled Russian attacks in Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Marinka, and Zaporizhzhia directions. A total of 66 combat engagements took place on the front during 25 October 2023. According to the Ukrainian General Staff data, the operational situation in the east and south of Ukraine remains difficult.

In Volyn and Polissia directions, the operational situation has not changed significantly. There were no signs of the formation of offensive groups. Certain units of the armed forces of Belarus perform tasks in the areas bordering Ukraine.

In Sivershchyna and Slobozhanshchyna directions, the Russians maintained a military presence in the border areas, continues to carry out subversive and intelligence activities, shells populated settlements from the territory of the Russian Federation, and increases the density of mine and explosive barriers along the state border of Ukraine. More than 30 settlements were hit with artillery and mortars, including Senkivka, Kliusy, Leonivka in Chernihiv region; Bachivsk, Studenok, Starykove in Sumy region; Vovchansk, Okhrimivka, Kruhle, Budarky in Kharkiv region.

In Kupyansk direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful assaults in the areas of Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Ivanivka settlements in Kharkiv region, where the defense forces repelled 11 enemy attacks. Russian invaders also launched an airstrike near Novoselivske, Luhansk region. About 10 settlements, in particular, Kindrashivka, Ivanivka, Kyslivka, Krokhmalne, Pishchane, Berestove in Kharkiv region, were hit with artillery and mortars.

In Lyman direction, the Ukrainian troops repelled all enemy attacks near Nadia and Makiyivka, Luhansk region. The aggressor launched airstrikes in the areas of Serebrianske forestry in Luhansk region; Hryhorivka and Verkhniokamyanske in Donetsk region. More than 10 settlements came under artillery and mortar fire, including Makiyivka, Nevske, Bilohorivka in Luhansk region; Torske, Spirne, Vyimka, Fedorivka, Rozdolivka in Donetsk region. In Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian soldiers repelled seven enemy attacks in the areas of Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiyivka, Andriyivka in Donetsk region. The invaders launched an airstrike in the area of Khromove village in Donetsk region. About 20 settlements came under artillery and mortar fire, in particular, Minkivka, Bohdanivka, Klishchiyivka, Andriyivka, Kurdiumivka, Druzhba in Donetsk region.

In Avdiivka direction, the Russians conducted unsuccessful assaults with the support of aviation in the areas of Stepove, Avdiivka, Tonenke, Sieverne settlements in Donetsk region. Here, the defense forces repelled 12 enemy attacks. The invaders also launched an airstrike on the area of Novobakhmutivka in Donetsk region. More than 10 settlements, including Ocheretyne, Semenivka, Avdiivka, Semenivka, Sieverne, Opytne in Donetsk region, were hit with artillery and mortars.

Russia’s war in Ukraine has intensified with Russian forces persisting in an assault on the eastern town of Avdiivka and Ukrainian forces scoring a few stealthy advances along the front. They were fighting to establish full control of the village. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said on October 20 that its troops had destroyed almost 50 Russian tanks and about 100 armoured fighting vehicles while repelling attacks near Avdiivka, on the eastern front. Some Ukrainian soldiers reported 200 Russian vehicles destroyed, losses which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy late last week described as “really staggering”. Russian forces had formed pincers to the north and south of the city, and mounted a fierce offensive to overrun it in the past month.

The main development in the assault on Avdeevka was the Russian occupation of The ash dump (slag heap). The “Vostokers” took it twice through heroism and losses. This is the dominant height, which gives fire control to Koksokhim, and Koksokhim - about a third of Avdeevka. From the ash dump Koksokhim is visible in its entirety even without special surveillance equipment. The ash dump covers therailroad through which Ukrainians brought basically everything. Now Ukrainians don’t have such opportunities, and, by and large, there are no other good roads there. Theoretically, the situation for Ukrainians is so-so. It is clear that they will be driven around the fields, making paths, but they will not have the volume as before. But Russians were squeezed out of Berdychi, and suffered heavy losses.

In Marinka direction, the aggressor conducted unsuccessful assaults with the support of aviation near Marinka and Novomykhaylivka in Donetsk region, where the defense forces repelled 14 enemy attacks. About 10 settlements came under enemy artillery and mortar fire, in particular, Hostre, Heorhiyivka, Marinka, Pobieda, Novomykhaylivka in Donetsk region.

On the South front the Russian offensive slowed down. From the side of Vodyanoy the Russians were trying to break through in several directions at once, for the tome heading towards Pervomaisky. It was very difficult to go north, the Ukrainains covered towards the North and didn’t let Russians stick their head out, so there were Russian losses. In Marinka direction, the Russians conducted unsuccessful assaults with the support of aviation near Marinka and Novomykhaylivka in Donetsk region, where the defense forces repelled 14 enemy attacks. About 10 settlements came under enemy artillery and mortar fire, in particular, Hostre, Heorhiyivka, Marinka, Pobieda, Novomykhaylivka in Donetsk region.

In Shakhtarske direction, the enemy conducted unsuccessful assault operations with the support of aviation in the area of Vodiane, Novoukrainka and Staromayorske settlements in Donetsk region. An airstrike was also launched near Volodyne, Donetsk region. About 10 settlements, including Vodiane, Vuhledar, Prechystivka, Zolota Nyva, Blahodatne, and Urozhayne in Donetsk region, were hit with artillery and mortars.

In the Zaporozhye direction the situation was heating up, for the second day in the Tokmak area Ukrainians were shelling artillery like crazy. Perhaps this is how they divert attention in order to prevent Russians from transferring reinforcements to liquidate the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnieper. Ukrainian soldiers repelled a Russian attack near Verbove, Zaporizhzhia region. The Russians launched airstrikes in the areas of Novodarivka and Novodanylivka in Zaporizhzhia region. More than 20 settlements, in particular, Novodanylivka, Novoandriyivka, Mali Shcherbaky, Stepove, Pyatykhatky in Zaporizhzhia region, were hit with artillery and mortars.

In the Kherson direction, the Ukrainians had two bridgeheads on Left bank of the Dnieper and had gained a foothold. The second week Russia struck them with aviationion and artillery. There are still few Ukkrainians - groups of 50-70 troops. So far, with losses, they managed to evacuate, pull out the wounded, and transfer reserves. In principle, the situation was not simple. Russian troops launched airstrikes with more than 25 guided aerial bombs in the areas of Zmiivka, Beryslav, Odradokamyanka, Mykolaivka, and Olhivka settlements in Kherson region. Kherson, Chervonyi Mayak, Antonivka in Kherson region came under enemy artillery and mortar fire.

Fighting has intensified around the banks of the lower reaches of the Dnipro River over the last week, which suggests that Russia has maintained a significant artillery capability within range of the river. The UK Ministry of Defence said "Ukraine has given higher priority to operations in this sector, building up small bridgeheads on the east bank it has controlled since the summer. Russia has likely been alert to the possibly of attacks across the river since it withdrew its forces from the western bank 12 months ago.

"The area is under the control of the newly established 18th Combined Arms Army, after some of the units previously in the area were diverted to the Orikhiv axis to the east. As in most sectors, a decisive factor is almost certainly the combatants’ ability to bring accurate, intense artillery fire to bear. Initial indication suggests that Russia has maintained a significant artillery capability within range of the river."

Russia’s single worst day of the war in terms of losses was October 20, with reported casualties of 1,380, compared with a daily 2023 average of just below 500.

The Ukrainian army’s high-profile and expensive counteroffensive failed to achieve its objectives. The Russian military is slowly but inevitably building up pressure on the front. Economic sanctions have not caused the country’s economy to collapse. Despite heavy damage, it is quickly adapting to the new conditions. Attempts to politically isolate Moscow have not worked either. For the Western partners of authorities in Kiev, the conflict is becoming increasingly expensive. The price could rise as the Armed Forces of Ukraine are stripped of Soviet-made equipment, and the need for new supplies grows. Ukraine’s economy also needs external cash injections in the face of military losses, demographic failure, and persistent governance problems, including corruption.

The Ukrainian conflict appears to be the key to the post-bipolar order. The start of Russia’s offensive in 2022 gave the US several immediate tactical advantages. Washington has a powerful lever of influence over its allies in Europe. NATO has been given a new lease on life, and the process of bloc enlargement is underway. The prolonged resistance of major Western European countries to persistent US demands to increase their defense spending and arms purchases has finally been broken. Thus, the militarization of Europe will proceed at a rapid pace.

On 29 October 2023 Russian troops conducted unsuccessful assault actions in the Kupiansk, Marinka and Avdiivka directions. Forty combat engagements occurred on the front. The relevant statement was made by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Facebook, an Ukrinform correspondent reports. Ukrainian forces continue conducting the offensive operation in the Melitopol direction and offensive (assault) actions in the Bakhmut direction, inflicting personnel and equipment losses on Russian occupation troops and exhausting the enemy all over the front line. Ukraine’s Air Force has launched 16 strikes on Russian personnel, ammunition and military equipment clusters. Ukrainian missile units hit one enemy command post and six artillery systems.

Colonel General Teplinsky was appointed commander of the Dnepr group. The reason for the removal of Makarevich from the leadership of the Dnepr group and the appointment of Teplinsky in his place may be the extreme lack of initiative of the command in this direction, ignoring the situation on the ground and sweeping what is happening under the carpet. This attitude resulted in constant enemy landings on the bank of the Dnieper under our control, consolidating it in some positions and conducting sabotage raids inland.

This situation created the danger of the emergence of Ukrainian bridgeheads for a full-fledged offensive, and the inability to adequately counter threats and respond to them in a timely manner while the enemy was preparing for larger-scale actions, apparently, put an end to the situation with the commander.

Against the backdrop of the change in the commander of the Dnepr group, Ukrainian channels are publishing a video from the 35th Marine Brigade of the Ukrainian Ukrainian Armed Forces, a small amphibious assault force that, under the cover of artillery fire, took a bridgehead in the village of Krynki about two weeks ago and continues to hold it to this day since then, with which the now former commander was unable to do anything (or did not want to).

In the Lyman-Kupian direction, the Russian army constantly tries to simulate offensive actions, even when it is obvious that there will be no breakthrough. Oleksandr Kovalenko, military and political commentator of the “Information Resistance” group, reported this October 30, on the air of the FREEDOM TV channel.

According to him, for the past three weeks, the Russian military command has been pulling forces from the “Center” group of troops, which are located in the territory of the Luhansk region, near Avdiivka. “They pulled units to strengthen the offensive on Avdiivka — they pulled the 21st MSB, the 15th MSB, they took the 30th. That is, in fact, the entire Second Combined Arms Army was dragged under Avdiivka. And now the units of the 45th Combined Arms Army are starting to move. The Russians are weakening this bridgehead, but at the same time they are trying to simulate an offensive,” Kovalenko said.

He believes that the Russians are transferring personnel and equipment from the Luhansk region to Avdiivka in order to disperse the resources of the Defense Forces of Ukraine. “In turn, when such an imitation takes place, a weakness appears in some area, and the Defense Forces of Ukraine, of course, take advantage of this weakness and return this area under their control,” explained the military-political observer.