Russo-Ukraine War - November 2023

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On 24 February 2022, Ukraine was suddenly and deliberately attacked by land, naval and air forces of Russia, igniting the largest European war since the Great Patriotic War. Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a "special military operation" (SVO - spetsialnaya voennaya operatsiya) in Ukraine. The military buildup in preceeding months makes it obvious that the unprovoked and dastardly Russian attack was deliberately planned long in advance. During the intervening time, the Russian government had deliberately sought to deceive the world by false statements and expressions of hope for continued peace.

"To initiate a war of aggression... is not only an international crime; it is the supreme international crime differing only from other war crimes in that it contains within itself the accumulated evil of the whole." [Judgment of the International Military Tribunal]

The expert community is now of the opinion that the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the south had stopped, that the front line there had not actually changed in recent weeks, that Ukrainian forces were stuck, for example, on the Robotyne salient.

The destruction of more than 20,000 Russia troops per month seemed the most effective way to exsanguinate their defense potential. Of course, this should be done in conjunction with other actions to neutralize the enemy's potential. The Russian army is at a dead end, when the lost equipment cannot be restored to the front, and it will not be possible to compensate for its lack of human resources.

Letter from Igor Ivanovich Strelkov dated October 26, 2023 "Review of the military and internal political situation at the end of October 2023, (briefly and abstractly).": The military situation is characterized by a continuing gradual deterioration in the position of the Russian Armed Forces on the Ukrainian front. Despite the generally successful repulsion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ offensive during the summer-autumn campaign, the Russian Armed Forces continue to demonstrate growing weakness (in comparison with the enemy’s capabilities). The Russian Armed Forces were not only unable to proceed to broad offensive operations after the Armed Forces of Ukraine “self-destructed” during the battles of June-September of this year, but they were also unable to conduct and successfully complete even limited offensive operations for operational purposes.

Thus, attempts to advance in the Kupyansk area ended in failure, getting stuck on the distant approaches to the city. In general, the situation in the Krasnoliman direction remained unchanged, and the tactical successes of the first day of the offensive on Avdeevka remained tactical, did not receive further development, but led to very serious losses in manpower and equipment. Lasting for several days, the “Avdeevka” battles demonstrated the inability of the Russian Armed Forces to achieve superiority over the Armed Forces of Ukraine even on a very narrow sector of the front, despite careful preparation and good coordination of strike forces and means at the initial stage of the operation, as well as an abundance of ammunition unheard of since the assault on Bakhmut.

At the same time, against the backdrop of the failure of the attempt to push the Ukrainian Armed Forces away from Donetsk, the enemy began to demonstrate those tactical techniques that (apparently) they will use in the future throughout the autumn-winter campaign. Namely, to begin a relatively massive use of modern aviation and missile technology coming from NATO countries (primarily from the USA), the Russian Armed Forces were unable to stop the successful use of which everywhere. The destruction of the airfield in the Berdyansk area followed - as a clear example of future increasing attacks (as missiles and aircraft continued to arrive). It seems that after (or even before) the New Year, when the Ukrainian Armed Forces are transferred to air units equipped with F-16 aircraft, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will undertake even more massive attacks - “injections” on the most painful points of the military and civilian infrastructure, and may also try to create a local advantage for a short period of time on any section of the front with the aim of new attempts to break through it.

At the same time, the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the coming months will be forced to place its main emphasis not on military equipment (due to its insufficient quantity), but on the simultaneous superiority in manpower and the number of military units and formations, which persists despite the significant losses suffered in the summer and ( due to the lack of mobilization measures in the Russian Federation) in the future the spring-winter campaign remains unchanged. A crisis with the replenishment of battered formations with manpower in the so-called “Ukraine” will certainly come, but not this year and, realizing this, the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is trying and will try to “have time” to realize its advantage before the onset of this crisis. Moreover, in completely barbaric ways: through widespread (along the entire front) attacking and exhausting actions, in which heavy losses on the Ukrainian side are, however, associated with serious losses of the Russian Armed Forces.

Apparently, the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine hopes that after many months of fighting they will be able to “knock out” and morally break the most persistent Russian front-line units and formations. And by “breaking it” you can achieve a breakthrough and advancement in the most promising areas. But even if such a strategy fails, it may well lead to the fact that by spring not only the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be exhausted, but also the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will continue to be incapable of any broad offensive actions (which is more than satisfactory for the United States, whose advisers exercise actual control of combat operations).

Ukraine's commander-in-chief said the war with Russia was moving to a new stage of positional warfare involving static and attritional fighting, a phase he warned could benefit Moscow and allow it to rebuild its military power. In an article for The Economist, top general Valery Zaluzhnyi said the Ukrainian army needed key new military capabilities and technology, including air power, to break out of that kind of war. He also called for Ukraine to build up its army reserves and expand the categories of Ukrainian citizens who can be called up for training or to be mobilised.

Zaluzhny said the battlefield reminds him of the great conflict of a century ago. “Just like in the first world war we have reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate,” he says. The general concludes that it would take a massive technological leap to break the deadlock. “There will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough.”

The Ukrainian commander-in-chief complains: according to all Western estimates, Kyiv should have succeeded! “If you look at NATO textbooks and the mathematical calculations we did, four months should have been enough for us to get to Crimea, fight in Crimea, return from Crimea - and so on several times,” the author notes.

Zaluzhny does not allow himself passages in the spirit of Zelensky. On the contrary, he is much more restrained in relation to the sponsors of the Ukrainian regime: “They are not obliged to give us anything, and we are grateful for what we have, but I’m just stating the facts.” Kremlin spokes-person Dmitry Peskov has argued that Russia is achieving its military goals in Ukraine. He made the comments in response to Ukrainian general Valerii Zaluzhnyi, who suggested that the conflict had come to a "stalemate." "No, it has not reached a stalemate," Peskov told reporters. "Russia is steadily carrying out the special military operation. All the goals that were set should be fulfilled," he said.

“EW is the key to victory in the drone war. Russia modernised its EW forces over the past decade, creating a new branch of its army and building 60 new types of equipment. It outdoes us in this area: 65% of our jamming platforms at the start of the war were produced in Soviet times. We have already built many of our own electronic protection systems… We need to get better at conducting electronic warfare from our drones, across a wider range of the radio spectrum, while avoiding accidental suppression of our own drones,” he said.

All summer long, Ukrainians have been convinced that the offensive is slow, because the Armed Forces of Ukraine, lacking sufficient aircraft and long-range missiles, cannot make a deep breakthrough. Therefore, they are grinding down the enemy army in order to start moving later. It would seem that the official reports of the General Staff confirm this: the occupiers have indeed suffered serious losses, but, as it turned out later, they are quickly recovering them - both by moving additional forces (according to Ukrainian intelligence, Russia has concentrated more than 400,000 soldiers on the territory of Ukraine) and by mobilizing new "bayonets", which amounts to 20-25,000 people every month. Yes, about the same number of occupants are killed or seriously injured at the frontlines, but it is what it is. So, it feels like the enemy is not getting smaller, it continues to push and push wherever it can.

With the autumn rains, the ground in many places in the battle area has become a barely passable quagmire as the Rasputitsa sets in. Some predict serious problems for the Russians in the near future due to weather conditions in the Luhansk and Donetsk sectors and partially in the eastern part of the Zaporizhzhia front. The soils there are fat, up to 80 centimeters of black soil. As soon as the water begins to flow, it is almost impossible to move there.

Any territory gained by now will most likely be held for the foreseeable future. It "looks like Russia is going all-in and attempts to advance" before the mud season starts in the eastern sections of the front, Marcus Keupp, a defense expert with the Swiss Armed Forces, wrote. "So far they have produced a lot of scrap metal, but they are willing to take these losses. if they fail, this will backfire badly on their defensive capabilities."

"Russian commanders are conducting the offensive at Avdiivka Soviet-style, without regard for their own material or troops," Nico Lange, an expert on Ukraine and Russia at the Munich Security Conference, told DW. "Entire columns of Russian infantry fighting vehicles, troop carriers and battle tanks have already been destroyed by Ukrainian artillery fire or in the minefields." Lange is convinced that "a new phase of the war" is just beginning in Ukraine.

Vladyslav Selezniov, former spokesman for the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, emphasizes: "The defense forces near Avdiivka are turning a huge number of enemy personnel and armored vehicles into ashes. The numbers are impressive, but the enemy, knowing that there is a very powerful engineering network of fortifications, continues to make frontal, meaty assaults. Perhaps they are dreaming that they will be able to implement the same plan as in Bakhmut. There, they lost up to 100,000 of their soldiers in killed and wounded during the 10 months of the assault. However, Avdiivka's defense system is more powerful, which means the enemy has a slim chance of at least some success."

Winter is quickly approaching and Ukraine expects Russia to step up its attack on the energy infrastructure, as it did a year ago. Nevertheless, Ukrainian air force spokesperson Yuriy Ihnat believes that this time the calculation will work out in Ukraine's favor. For one thing, Germany has just delivered the third IRIS-T SLM air defense system, which Ihnat called "quite excellent and powerful."

The system's high-performance radar can be linked with other air defense systems and is particularly effective, said Ihnat. In addition, he said, "Germany, in particular, is increasing the production of ammunition for both anti-aircraft guns and air defense systems." The German Gepard anti-aircraft tank has also been very successful in fending off Russian drone attacks. For a long time, ammunition for this vehicle was in short supply, but the German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall has confirmed that since August, Gepard ammunition has been produced exclusively for Ukraine at a newly established production line.

Western analysts, including the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), have been writing about another Ukrainian landing on the left bank of the Kherson region and the expansion of the bridgehead. The Ukrainian side has not officially confirmed this. But it is unlikely that this bridgehead is a prerequisite for setting up a pontoon-bridge crossing and transferring a large number of personnel, armored vehicles, artillery and ammunition.

While the eastern front will face serious problems when it starts raining, he said, the southern front will not. "The western part of the Zaporizhzhia front and the Kherson direction are not as prone to bad weather as the eastern regions.

Ukraine announced on 01 November 2023 that Russia had bombed more than 100 towns during the past 24 hours, the largest number in a single attack since the beginning of the year. Ukrainian Interior Minister Igor Klimenko said in a message posted on social media, “During the past 24 hours, the enemy bombed 118 towns in 10 regions.” He added, "This is the largest number of cities and villages that have been attacked since the beginning of the year."

Shankar Narayan noted" Ukraine’s progress has been limited, with its forces making slow headway beyond Andriivka and Klishiivka. This sluggish advance is primarily due to the Russians’ determined and fierce resistance, as they have been exerting every effort to prevent Ukraine from gaining control of the crucial railway line linking to Bakhmut. Ukraine’s strategic objective is to secure the railway line and subsequently gain control of the nearby highway located a few kilometers to the east. Russia is determined not to relinquish control of these essential supply routes since losing them would render the defense of Bakhmut city exceedingly challenging.... Russia is already running out of reserves and they do not have the cushion, or confidence to stop Ukraine from breaking through in Bakhmut and Robotyne. As a result, they chose to attack Avdiivka.... The Russian assault on Avdiivka somehow brought to mind the Battle of the Ardennes..." Russia is amassing missiles and preparing to attack Ukraine's critical infrastructure when it gets colder. This was reported by Oleksiy Danilov, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, during the 'United News' telethon. "The Russian Federation is preparing for a scenario where there will be winter temperatures to harm us. Accordingly, they will try to hit critical infrastructure facilities that ensure vital activity," he said. Danilov noted that Ukraine is preparing for such a scenario as much as possible. According to him, the situation is not critical, as most critical infrastructure facilities are under control, and international partners, in turn, provide Ukraine with additional air defense equipment. Storm-Z soldiers are recruited in prisons and are thought to receive only rudimentary training and equipment but are believed to be ruthless in close-quarters combat. Ukrainians refer to such waves of infantry with poor mechanised and air support as “meat assaults”.

Russia doubled down on a campaign to capture the eastern Ukrainian town of Avdiivka during the 88th week of its war in what appears to be a repeat of its year-long campaign to capture nearby Bakhmut, which fell in May. As in Bakhmut, the Russian tactics have consisted of waves of infantry attacks that Ukrainian commanders said would soon become denser, and as in Bakhmut, Russian forces were suffering large losses of men and equipment.

Ukrainian forces have had the Russians in retreat there in recent months as they tried to encircle the captured town. They retook commanding heights north of Bakhmut in July, from which they’ve been shelling Russian positions. During the past week, they advanced past a railway line that runs 10km southwest of Bakhmut, meaning Russian forces can’t use it to resupply their front lines.

That high rate of attrition continued in the past week, according to Ukraine. Its armed forces reported 660 Russians killed on Saturday across the front in 70 combat clashes, 10 of them in Avdiivka. Two days later, they said they killed 680 Russian soldiers. Shtupun said 500 of those casualties were in the Avdiivka area over 30 assaults.

Russia is apparently able to replenish its numbers. The commander of the Russian “Arbat” Separate Guards Special Purpose Battalion, which is serving in Avdiivka, told a Russian reporter that fighters from the Wagner mercenary group are now among its ranks, an observation backed by a Ukrainian source.

The UK Ministry of Defence reported 03 November 2023 "Operations in recent weeks have seen the continuation of a trend which has been identified since early in the war: other factors being equal, the balance of land combat generally favours the defending force. In the south, the Ukrainian advance remains relatively static between the two main lines of Russia’s well prepared defensive positions. Around the Donbas town of Avdiivka, a large-scale Russian assault has floundered on strong Ukrainian defences. A major factor in this phenomenon has highly likely been the relative side-lining of tactical air power: both sides have maintained credible air defences, preventing combat jets from providing effective air support for assaults. Above all, the geographic size of the conflict has hampered the offensives: both sides have struggled to assemble uncommitted striking forces capable of a breakthrough because most of their mobilised troops are needed to hold the 1,200km line of contact."

The Institute for the Study of War, said on 03 November 2023 , "Russian forces are preparing for a third series of larger assaults near Avdiivka." Yury Fedorov, who specializes in Russia's security and nuclear strategy, told NHK that Russia is trying to create the conditions needed to achieve Putin's strategic aim to occupy the whole of the Donetsk region. He indicated that Russian forces are increasing their offensive in view of the upcoming presidential election. Fedorov says it will not be ideal for Putin to start campaigning for the presidential election before Russia wins the war.

He said even if Russia takes Avdiivka, it will need many more troops to advance beyond that point, so Avdiivka will probably be the last town that it tries to take. Russian forces launched massive drone attacks again on Friday, causing damage over a wide stretch of land. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on social media, "As winter approaches, Russian terrorists will try to cause more harm. We will be fighting back."

Zelenskyy denied 04 November 2023 that the war against Russia had reached a stalemate. He hit back at claims that the conflict was becoming more static during a surprise visit by European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen. He also dismissed reports from US media that Western officials had broached the issue of potential peace concessions with the Ukrainian government. "Today people are tired, everyone is tired, and there are different opinions. That is clear, but there is no stalemate," he said.

“We have no right to give up. What’s the alternative?” Zelensky asked. “What, should we give up a third of our state? This will only be the beginning. We know the meaning of the term frozen conflict, and have drawn conclusions for ourselves.” Tatarigami_UA, a Ukrainian officer in reserves and founder of the Frontelligence Insight, stated 04 November 2023 "until General Syrski, widely disrespected within the army, is replaced, substantial improvements are unlikely. General Syrski's leadership is bankrupt, his presence or orders coming from his name are demoralizing, and he undermines trust in the command in general. His relentless pursuit of tactical gains constantly depletes our valuable human resources, resulting in tactical advances such as capturing tree lines or small villages, with no operational goals in mind. This approach creates a never-ending cycle of fruitless assaults that drain personnel. His failure to withdraw troops from Bakhmut in a timely manner earlier this year, coupled with his obsession to retake it, by utilizing Wagner Group's tactics, further depletes our resources and has more far-reaching consequences than people might realize."

He is head of the Ground Forces of Ukraine. He is basically responsible for appointing key positions in brigades and much more. He also leads the Khortytsia operational-strategic group.

@HerrDr8 noted 14 November 2023 "The dramatically elevated Russian loss rates of kit and troops since their #Avdiivka debacle began (and even since AFU counteroffensive kicked off in JUN) point to a significant change in relative artillery strength... number of factors driving that: 1) Russia barrel wear and shortage of shells (some chatter about little tsar's begging of NK delivered shells, but, those appear to have a HIGH amount of dudes...no surprise) 2) AFU comparative advantage in arty platforms: See #OBMtriangleArty thread for analysis on 3) USA cluster shells began arriving in Ukraine in JUL 4) Continuing miserable Russian leadership (Putin, Shoigu, General G braintrust PLUS purged RUS military) generates unimaginative, uncoordinated and non supported meat assaults."

Richard Vereker noted " for most of the war Russia overwhelmingly used its main 152mm guns, but from about April 23, there was an increased use of both smaller and larger guns, which I think was because that was what they had ammunition for, but since the NK ammunition arrived they seem to be moving back to 152mm."

In most areas, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will take up active defense, but will not stop the movement towards Bakhmut, Tokmak and the left-bank Kherson region. The second winter since Russia's full-scale invasion (the five days of February 2022 can hardly be considered a full-fledged winter) is greeted by Ukrainians not with any exaggerated hopes for a further quick and beautiful offensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but with an understanding of the complexity of the situation: that this war is for a long time, and that it may not end in 2024.

In a commentary to Ukrinform, reserve colonel Roman Svitan predicted that the rains would stop the Russian offensive on the eastern front. And these are Avdiivka, Vuhledar, Bakhmut, Kupyansk - the hottest spots on the map. The Russians will not be able to move there on a large scale. This means that there is a chance that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will have additional resources to perform tasks in other places, for example, in Tokmak or on the left bank of the Dnipro. "The left bank of the Kherson region, which is still in flux, looks even more promising than Tokmak," the military expert says. - "There is a high probability of forcing the Dnipro and operating on the left bank in the fall and winter. Because we have the shortest supply arm there. And if we have reliable pontoons, it is also quite possible to transfer equipment to the left bank." On the left bank, the sandy soil holds tracked vehicles well, even in the rain.

For Ukraine, "The most dangerous place is, of course, Avdiivka. If on October 10 the enemy launched an offensive, using the 1st Army Corps, plus the 20th and 150th motorized rifle divisions from the 8th Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation, then almost a week and a half or two weeks later it was said that the entire 2nd Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation was fighting near Avdiivka. And now there are the 15th, 21st and 30th separate rifle brigades (OBSr), which is a rather serious potential".

"These are the maniacal fetishists about Avdiivka. The enemy has now accumulated twice as many resources near Avdiivka as it had near Bakhmut at the beginning of the year," added Mr. Kovalenko. The length of the front line during the enemy's attack on Bakhmut was within 50 kilometers, while near Avdiivka it was just over 20 kilometers. At the same time, the number of enemy troops in Bakhmut ranged from 20 to 50,000 personnel at different periods of the offensive. And the concentration of forces near Avdiivka today is over 40,000. That is, about 2,000 per kilometer of the front.

"With the line leveled in the Avdiivka area, the enemy will be able to make greater use of the Donetsk transportation hub and maneuver forces and means along the entire front line. Donetsk is an important hub through which we are still having a serious impact on the enemy, preventing him from carrying out large-scale redeployments. Our Avdiivka offensive serves this purpose," Colonel Serhiy Hrabsky, a reserve officer in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, emphasizes. "The enemy is aware of this, and therefore makes desperate attempts to push us out and knock us out, and ideally defeat us there. We have to prevent this from happening."

"As long as there is no reliable air cover for our troops, as long as the troops are not provided with a sufficient number of electronic warfare systems, in particular, we will not be able to conduct serious offensive actions. Therefore, the front line is not likely to change significantly in the winter. Our task now is to conduct mostly active defense. At the same time, we are to increase the quantitative and qualitative indicators of equipment and weapons, air defense and electronic warfare systems, ammunition, personnel, and form new units. And, wait for the promised fighters," summarized Sergiy Hrabsky.

After freshly fallen snow on 20 Novemberr 2023, it can be stated that in such weather, large offensives involving equipment of both sides on most sectors of the front will either completely come to naught before the ground hardens, or will reduce their intensity several times over.

The two directions — Bakhmut and Lyman-Kupyansk — differ quite seriously. If we talk about Lymano-Kupianskyi, then near Lyman, the enemy’s task is to throw the Ukrainian army behind the Stary Oskil river, behind a water obstacle (expressed in military language). Bakhmut is another story. Military expert, founder of the charity organization “Reaktivna poshta” Pavlo Narozhnyi told about this today, 22 November 2023, on the air of FREEDOM TV channel.

According to his information, in the Lymano-Kupian direction, the Russian occupiers are endlessly storming the Serebryansky forest. “The Lyman direction differs from all other directions of Donbas in that there is a lot of forest there. The rest of Donbas is mostly steppe, it is extremely difficult to find any large plantation there, and there is a huge forest. In this forest, as one of my acquaintances put it, “Ukrainian paratroopers of the 95th brigade are teaching the Russian army the basics of tactics.” In other words, they are purposefully destroyed. The enemy cannot develop any success there, absolutely,” says Narozhny.

As for the Bakhmut direction, according to a military expert, there is mostly steppe and the most important moment is that the Ukrainian army has occupied all the dominant heights. “It is very convenient for us to destroy the Russian army from these heights. And the creeping offensive continues in this direction. It cannot be said that it is fast, that we cover kilometers in a day. We walk hundreds of meters a day, but we walk. A very well-motivated, probably one of the best infantry brigades of the Ukrainian army – the 3rd Assault Brigade – works there. A creeping offensive continues there, not as fast as on the left bank of the Dnieper, but still continuing,” he says.

Ukrainian footholds on the left bank of the Kherson region have finally ceased to be Polischynel's secret. Since mid-November, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has officially confirmed this information, emphasizing that "sabotage, raiding and reconnaissance activities are being conducted on this section of the southern front, the Defense Forces are tracking the logistics routes for the supply of ammunition and food to the Russians, as well as searching for and destroying their personnel and equipment." The enemy, according to the Ukrainian side, is suffering heavy losses.

Russians mostly use the T2206 highway, the same one that turns into the M-14 and goes from Oleshky to Melitopol. But between Kozachy Lahery and Krynky, especially near Krynky, Ukraine has entered the forest, and the T2206 road itself is less than three kilometers away. Cutting this highway will significantly worsen the enemy's situation. Ukrainian troops have achieved tactical success in the direction of the E58 Oleshky-Kamyanka highway, "hovering" over Russian positions near the E58-E97 intersection south of the Poima-Pishchanivka-Pidstepne line.

However, there will not be any large-scale breakthrough to Crimea, at least not yet. What is happening now on the left bank should be assessed in terms of creating a security buffer that will be expanded in the future. The goal is to push the enemy as far away from the right bank as possible. The further the Russian artillery is from Kherson, the better.

The advantage of Ukrainian defense forces on the left bank of the Dnipro is that in the coastal zone they can cover the Russians with artillery fire from the right bank, the weakness is the difficulty of forcing the river with heavy armor. The weather is also making its own adjustments: in low clouds, enemy aircraft have fewer opportunities to attack Ukrainian forward positions, but Ukrainian drones are flying worse and less frequently. It's not easy on the ground either - it's still a floodplain, a semi-swampy area.

The last six weeks have likely seen some of the highest Russian casualty rates of the war so far. The heavy losses have largely been caused by Russia’s offensive against the Donbas town of Avdiivka.