| 2014 |
|
"Speculative
Asset Prices," American Economic Review (June 2014),
104(6): 1486-1517 [CFP 1424] |
|
"Why
Is Housing Finance Still Stuck in Such a Primitive Stage?," American
Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings (May 2014), 104(5): 73-76
[CFP 1421] |
| 2013 |
|
"Aligning
Incentives at Systemically Important Financial Institutions: A
Proposal by the Squam Lake Group" (with Martin N. Baily, John
Y. Campbell, John H. Cochrane, Douglas W. Diamond, Darrell Duffie,
Kenneth R. French, Anil K. Kashyap, Frederic S. Mishkin,
Raghuram Rajan, David S. Scharfstein, Matthew J. Slaughter, Hyun Song
Shin, Jeremy Stein, and Ren� M. Stulz), Journal of Applied
Corporate Finance (Fall 2013), 25(4): 37-40 |
|
"Capitalism
and Financial Innovation," Financial Analysts Journal
(January/February 2013), 69(1) |
|
"Irving
Fisher, Debt Deflation, and Crises," Journal of the
History of Economic Thought (June 2013), 35(2): 179-183 |
|
"Mitigating
Financial Fragility with Continuous Workout Mortgages" (with
Rafal M. Wojakowski, M. Shahid Ebrahim, and Mark B. Shackleton), Journal
of Economic Behavior and Organization (January 2013), 85: 269-285 |
|
"Reflections
on Finance and the Good Society," American Economic Review
(May 2013), 103(3): 402-405 |
|
"Wealth
Effects Revisited 1975-2012" (with Karl E. Case and John M.
Quigley), Critical Finance Review (2013), 2(1): 101-128 |
| 2012 |
|
"A
Pricing Framework for Real Estate Derivatives," European
Financial Management (November 2012), 18(5): 762-789 |
| 2011 |
|
"Economists as Worldly Philosophers" (with Virginia
M. Shiller), American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings (May
2011), 103(3): 171-175 |
|
"Spotting
Bubbles," The International Economy (Spring 2011),
34-35 |
| 2010 |
|
"Crisis
and Innovation," The Journal of Portfolio Management
(Spring 2010), 36(3): 14-19 |
|
"Encouraging Saving: Lessons for
Developed and Developing Countries," Yale Journal of
International Affairs (Winter 2010), 5(1): 153-156 |
|
"How Should the Financial Crisis Change How We Teach
Economics?" Journal of Economic Education (September 2010), 41(4): 403-409 |
|
"Property Derivatives for Managing European Real-Estate Risk"
(with Frank Fabozzi and Radu Tunaru), European Financial Management (2010), 16(1):
8-26 [CFP 1300] |
|
"The
Squam Lake Report: Fixing the Financial System" (with Kenneth
French, Martin Baily, John Campbell, John Cochrane, Douglas Diamond,
Darrell Duffie, Anil Kashyap, Frederic Mishkin, Raghuram Rajan, David
Scharfstein, Hyun Song Shin, Matthew Slaughter, Jeremy Stein and Ren�
Stulz), Journal of Applied Corporate Finance (Summer 2010),
22(3): 8-21 |
|
"Trills Instead of T-Bills: It's Time to Repalce Part of
Government Debt with Shares in GDP" (with Mark Kamstra), The Economists' Voice
(September 2010), Vol. 7, Issue 3, Article 5 |
| 2009 |
|
"Hedging Real-Estate Risk" (with Frank Fabozzi and
Radu Tunaru), Journal of Portfolio Management, Special Real Estate Issue (2009),
35(5): 92-103 |
|
"Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond Markets"
(with John Campbell and Luis Viceira), Brookings Papers on Economic Activity
(Spring 2009), 1: 79-138. Also published in Michael Haliassos, ed., Financial
Innovation: Too Much or Too Little?, MIT Press, 2013, pp. 29-70 |
|
"Unlearned Lessons from the Housing Bubble," The Economists'
Voice, (2009), Vol. 6, Issue 7 |
| 2008 |
|
"Understanding Recent Trends in House Prices and Homeownership,"
in Housing, Housing Finance and Monetary Policy, Jackson Hole Conference Series,
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 2008, pp. 85-123 [CFDP 1630] |
| 2007 |
|
"Innovations to Foster Entrepreneurship." In Edwin
Phelps and Hans-Werner Sinn, eds., Perspectives on the Performance of the Continent's
Economies, 2007 |
|
"Low
Interest Rates and High Asset Prices: An Interpretation in Terms of Changing Popular
Economic Models," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (2007), 2: 111-132 |
| 2006 |
|
"Designing Indexed Units of Account." In Lawrence
R. Klein, ed., Long-Run Growth and Short-Run Stabilization: Essays in Memory of Albert
Ando, Elgar, 2006, pp. 288-302 |
|
"Irrational Exuberance Revisited." CFA Institute
Conference Proceedings Quarterly (September 2006), 23(3): 16-25. Also in Rodney N.
Sullivan and Jeffrey Diermeier, eds., Global Perspectives on Investment Management,
CFA Institute, 2006 |
|
"The
Life-Cycle Personal Accounts Proposal for Social Security: An Evaluation of President
Bush's Proposal," Journal of Policy Modeling (May 2006), 28(4): 427-444 |
|
"Long-Term Perspectives on the Current Boom in Home Prices," Economists'
Voice (2006), Vol. 3, Issue 4 |
|
"Tools for
Financial Innovations: Neoclassical versus Behavioral Finance," The Financial
Review (2006), 41: 1-8 [CFP 1180] |
| 2005 |
|
"Behavioral
Economics and Institutional Innovation," Southern Economic Journal (2005),
72(2): 269-283 [CFP 1150] |
|
"Comparing
Wealth Effects: The Stock Market vs. the Housing Market," with Karl E. Case and
John M. Quigley, Advances in Macroeconomics (2005) 5(1): 1–34. [CFP 1181, CFDP
1335] |
|
"Distinguished Guest Lecture: Behavioral Economics and
Institutional Innovation," Southern Economic Journal (2005), 72(2): 269-283 |
|
"The Invention of
Inflation-Indexed Bonds in Early America" in William N. Goetzmann and Geert K.
Rouwenhorst, eds., The Origins of Value: The Financial Innovations that Created Modern
Capital Markets Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2005. [CFDP 1442] |
|
"The
Life-Cycle Personal Accounts Proposal for Social Security: A Review," NBER
Working Paper No. 11300, April 2005. [CFDP 1504] |
|
"Life-Cycle
Portfolios as Government Policy," Economists’ Voice (2005), 2(1),
Article 14. [CFP 1182] |
|
"Samuelson’s
Dictum and the Stock Market," with Jeeman Jung, Economic Inquiry (2005).
[CFP 1183, CFDP 1386] |
|
"Valuation Ratios and the Long Run Stock Market Outlook:
An Update" (with John Y. Campbell), in Richard H. Thaler, Advances in Behavioral
Finance II, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2005. [CFDP 1295] |
| 2004 |
|
"The Design and Regulation of Income-Linked Loans,"
in An Executive Briefing on Financing Human Capital, Cambridge: Cambridge
University Press, 2004. |
|
"Home-Buyers, Housing, and the Macroeconomy" (with
Karl E. Case and John M. Quigley), in Anthony Richards and Tim Robinson, eds., Asset
Prices and Monetary Policy, Reserve Bank of Australia, 2004, pp. 149–88. |
|
"Macro Markets: Managing Risks to National
Economies," in Public Finance in a Globalizing World: Innovations in Theory and
Practice, New York: United Nations Development Program, 2004. |
|
"The MD Interview: Robert J. Shiller," by John Y.
Campbell, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2004. |
|
"Radical Financial Innovation,"
for Entrepreneurship, Innovation and the Growth Mechanism of the Free Market
Economies, in Honor of William Baumol, Princeton University Press, 2004, pp. 306-323
[CFDP 1461] |
| 2003 |
|
"From Efficient
Markets Theory to Behavioral Finance," Journal of Economic Perspectives
(2003), 17(1) [CFP 1055] |
|
"Is There a
Bubble in the Housing Market?", Brookings Papers on Economic Activity
(2003), 2: 299-362 [CFP 1089] |
|
"Social
Security and Individual Accounts as Elements of Overall Risk-Sharing," AEA
Papers and Proceedings (2003), 93(2) [CFP 1061] |
| 2002 |
|
"Bubbles, Human Judgment and Expert Opinion," Financial
Analysts Journal (May/June 2002), 58(3): 18–26; reprinted in The ICFAI Journal
of Behavioral Finance (India) (September 2004), 1(3): 7–17. [CFDP 1303] |
|
"Defining
Residual Risk-Sharing Opportunities: Pooling World Income Components," with
Stefano Athanasoulis, Research in Economics 56: 61–84, 2002. |
| 2001 |
|
"Exuberant
Reporting." Harvard International Review (Spring 2001), 23(1): 60-65 |
|
"World Income
Components: Measuring and Exploiting Risk Sharing Opportunities" (with Stefano
Athanasoulis), American Economic Review (September 2001), 91(4): 1031–54 [CFP
1029] |
| 2000 |
|
"Measuring
Bubble Expectations and Investor Confidence," Journal of Psychology and
Financial Markets (2000), 1(1): 49–60, 2000. [CFDP 1212, CFP 1004] |
|
"Moral Hazard
and Home Equity Conversion" (with Allan Weiss), Real Estate Economics
(2000), 28(1) [CFP 1014] |
|
"The
Significance of the Market Portfolio" (with Stefano G. Athanasoulis), The
Review of Financial Studies (Summer 2000), 13(2): 301–329. [CFP 997] |
| 1999 |
|
"Evaluating
Real Estate Valuation Systems" (with Allan N. Weiss), Journal of Real Estate
Finance and Economics (1999) 18(2):147–61. [CFP 983] |
|
"Home Equity
Insurance" (with Allan Weiss), Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics
(1999), 19(1): 21–47 [CFDP 1074, CFP 1007] |
|
"Human Behavior
and the Efficiency of the Financial System," in J.B. Taylor and M. Woodford,
eds., Handbook of Macroeconomics, Vol. 1, pp.1305–40, 1999. [CFP 1025] |
|
"Macro Markets
and Financial Security," with Stefano Athanasoulis and Eric van Wincoop, Economic
Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Vol. 5 No. 1, pp. 21–39, April
1999 |
|
"Social
Security and Institutions for Intergenerational, Intragenerational and International Risk
Sharing," Carnegie–Rochester Series in Public Policy (June 1999),
50:165–204. [CFDP 1185, CFP 993] |
| 1998 |
|
"Designing Indexed Units of Account," presented at
American Economic Association Meetings, Chicago Illinois, January, 1998. [CFDP 1179] |
|
"Indexed Units of Account: Theory and Analysis of
Historical Experience," in Fernando Lefort and Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, Indexation,
Inflation, and Monetary Policy, Central Bank of Chile, Santiago Chile, 2002. Also
appeared as National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper #6356, Cambridge, MA, 1998.
[CFDP 1171] |
|
"Labor Income
Indices Designed for Use in Contracts Promoting Income Risk Management" (with
Ryan Schneider), Review of Income and Wealth (June 1998), Series
44(2):163–182. [CFDP 1110, CFP 964] |
|
"Macro Markets: Motivations, Techniques, and
Proposals," Conference Proceedings, 22nd Annual Spring Research Seminar, Chicago
Board of Trade, May 12, 1998. |
|
"Macro Markets and Financial Security," with
Stefano Athanasoulis and Eric van Wincoop, unpublished paper, 1998. |
|
"Valuation
Ratios and the Long-Run Stock Market Outlook" (with John Y. Campbell), Journal
of Portfolio Management (Winter 1998), 24(2):11–26. |
| 1997 |
|
"Expanding the Scope of Individual Risk Management:
Moral Hazard and Other Behavioral Considerations," Economic Notes (1997),
26(2): 361–78. [CFDP 1145] |
|
"A Scorecard for
Indexed Government Debt" (with John Y. Campbell), in Ben Bernanke and Julio
Rotermberg, eds., NBER Macroeconomics Annual. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, pp.
155–197. [CFDP 1125] |
|
"Indexed Units of Account for the United States,"
1997. [http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/uf-usa4.html] |
|
"Public
Resistance to Indexation: A Puzzle," for Brookings Panel on Economic Activity
(1997). (Formerly entitled, "Why Are People So Indifferent to Indexation?") [CFP
946] |
| 1996 |
|
"A Decade of Boom and Bust in Single Family Home Prices:
Boston and Los Angeles, 1983–1993" (with Karl E. Case), Revue D'Economie
Financiere (December 1993), pp. 389–407. Reprinted in New England Economic
Review (March/April 1994), 40–51. |
|
"Mortgage Default Risk and Real Estate Prices: The Use
of Index-Based Futures and Options in Real Estate" (with Karl E. Case), Journal
of Housing Research (1996), 7(2): 243–258. [CFDP 1098] |
|
"Speculative Booms and Crashes," Henry B. Thornton
Lecture, City University, London, 1989, in Forrest Capie and Geoffrey E. Wood (eds.), Monetary
Economics in the 1990s., Macmillan, 1996, pp. 58–74. |
|
"Why Did the
Nikkei Crash? Expanding the Scope of Expectations Data Collection" (with Fumiko
Kon-Ya and Yoshiro Tsutsui), Review of Economics and Statistics (1996), 78:
156–64. [CFDP 1012, CFP 922] |
|
"Why Do People Dislike Inflation?" in Christina
Romer and David Romer, eds., Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy,
National Bureau of Economic Research and University of Chicago Press, 1996. [CFDP 1115] |
| 1995 |
|
"Aggregate
Income Risks and Hedging Mechanisms," Quarterly Review of Economics and
Finance (1995). [CFDP 1048] |
|
"Conversation,
Information, and Herd Behavior," American Economic Review (1995), 85(2):
181–85. [CFDP
1092 & CFP 909] |
|
"Hedging Inflation and Income Risks," Manchester
School of Economic and Social Studies (1995), 63: 1–21 (supplement "Papers
in Money, Macroeconomics and Finance). |
|
"Speculative Behavior and the Functioning of Risk
Markets," Moneda y Cr�dito (1995). |
|
"World Income Components: Measuring and Exploiting
International Risk Sharing Opportunities" (with Stefano Athanasoulis), NBER Working
Paper No. 5095, April 1995. [CFDP 1097] |
| 1994 |
|
|
| 1993 |
|
"Actual and
Warranted Movements in Asset Prices" (with Andrea Beltratti), Oxford Economic
Papers (1993), 45: 387–402. [CFDP 970, CFP 859] |
|
"Index-Based Futures and Options Trading in Real
Estate" (with Karl E. Case and Allan N. Weiss), Journal of Portfolio Management
(Winter 1993). [CFDP
1006] |
|
"Measuring
Asset Value for Cash Settlement in Derivative Markets: Hedonic Repeated Measures Indices
and Perpetual Futures," Journal of Finance (1993), 48(3): 911–931.
[CFDP 1036, CFP 856] |
|
"The Theory of Index-Based Futures and Options
Markets," Estudios Econ�micos (El Colegio de M�xico)
(July–December, 1993), 8(2): 163–78. |
| 1992 |
|
"Hunting for
Homo Sovieticus: Situational versus Attitudinal Factors in Economic Behavior"
(with Maxim Boycko and Vladimir Korobov), Brookings Papers on Economic Activity
(1992), pp. 127–194. Reprinted (in Russian translation) in Constants
(Ukraine) (1994), 1(1): 1. [CFP 817] |
|
"Stock Prices
and Bond Yields: Can Their Comovements Be Explained in Terms of Present Value Models?"
(with Andrea Beltratti), Journal of Monetary Economics (August 1992), 30. [CFDP
953, CFP 833] |
|
"Volatility in U.S. and Japanese Stock Markets," Journal
of Applied Corporate Finance (1992), 5(1): 25–29. Excerpt reprinted in Stephen
Lofthouse (ed.), Readings in Investments, Wiley, Chichester, 1994, pp.
315–318. |
| 1991 |
|
"Arithmetic
Repeat Sales Price Estimators," Journal of Housing Economics (1991), 1:
110–26. [CFP 781] |
|
"Investor Behavior in the October 1987 Stock Market
Crash: The Case of Japan" (with Fumiko Kon-Ya and Yoshiro Tsutsui), Journal
of the Japanese and International Economies (1991), 5: 1–13, 1991. |
|
"Popular
Attitudes Towards Free Markets: The Soviet Union and the United States Compared"
(with Maxim Boycko and Vladimir Korobov), American Economic Review (1991), 81(3):
385–400. Also published (in Russian) as "Rinok v Vospriyatii Sovyetskoi i
Amerikanskoi Obshchestvennosti (Sravnitelnii Analyz)," in Mirovaya Ekonomika i
Mezhdunarodniye Otnosheniya, 2/1992, pp. 39–54. Abridged version published
in textbook The Road to Capitalism, Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, 1992. [CFP 787] |
|
"The Significance of the Growth of Institutional
Investing," in New York Stock Exchange, Institutional Investor Fact Book 1991,
New York, pp. 21–26. |
|
"Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye
View" (with John Y. Campbell), Review of Economic Studies (1991), 58:
495–514. |
| 1990 |
|
"Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models,"
(with John Campbell), Journal of Political Economy (1987), 95:
1062–1088. Reprinted in R.F. Engle and C.W.J. Granger, eds., Long-Run
Economic Relationships. Oxford University Press, 1991. [CFDP 785] |
|
"Comparing
Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models" (with Ray C. Fair), American
Economic Review (1990), 80(3): 375–389. [CFDP 833R, CFP 754] |
|
"Forecasting Prices and Excess Returns in the Housing
Market" (with Karl E. Case), AREUEA Journal (1990), 18(3): 253–273. |
|
"Market Volatility and Investor Behavior," American
Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings (1990), 80(2): 58–62. |
|
"A Scott-Type Regression Test of the Dividend–Ratio
Model," Review of Economics and Statistics (1990), 72(2): 356–361. |
|
"Speculative Prices and Popular Models," Journal
of Economic Perspectives (Spring 1990), 4(2): 55–65. |
| 1989 |
|
"Comovements in Stock Prices and Comovements in
Dividends," Journal of Finance (July 1989), 44: 719–729. |
|
"Causes of Changing Financial Market
Volatility," in Financial Market Volatility, Federal Reserve Bank of
Kansas City, 1988, pp. 1–22. |
|
"The Dividend Ratio Model and Small Sample Bias: A Monte
Carlo Study" (with John Campbell), Economics Letters (1989), 29:
325–331. |
|
"The Dividend–Price Ratio and Expectations of
Future Dividends and Discount Factors," (with John Campbell), Review of Financial
Studies (1988), 1(3): 195–228. [CFDP 812] |
|
"The Efficiency of the Market for Single Family
Homes" (with Karl E. Case), American Economic Review (March 1989), 79(1):
125–37. Reprinted in John M. Quigley, ed., The Economics of Housing,
Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar, 1997. |
|
"The
Informational Content of Ex Ante Forecasts" (with Ray C. Fair), Review of
Economics and Statistics (1989), 71(2): 325–331. [CFDP 857, CFP 736] |
|
"Initial Public Offerings: Investor Behavior and
Underpricing," NBER Working Paper, 1989. |
|
"Price Conditional Vector Autoregressions and
Theories of Stock Price Determination," in Rui M.C. Guimara�es, Brian G. Kingsman,
and Stephen J. Taylor (eds.), A Reappraisal of the Efficiency of Financial Markets.
Springer-Verlag, NATO Advanced Science Institute Series, Berlin Heidelberg, 1989, pp.
409–429. |
|
"Survey Evidence on the Diffusion of Interest and
Information Among Investors" (with John Pound), Journal of Economic
Behavior and Organization (1989), 12: 47–66. [CFDP 794] |
|
"The Term
Structure of Interest Rates," in Benjamin Friedman and Frank Hahn (eds.), Handbook
of Monetary Economics. North Holland, 1989. [CFP 766] |
|
The Volatility Debate," American Journal of
Agricultural Economics (1988), 70(5): 1057–1063. |
| 1988 |
|
"The Behavior of Home Buyers in Boom and Post-Boom
Markets," (with Karl E. Case), New England Economic Review
(November/December, 1988), pp. 29–46. Reprinted in Russian in Constants
(Ukraine) (1993), 1(2): 1–20. |
|
"Interpreting Cointegrated Models" (with John
Campbell), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Special Issue, Masanao Aoki,
ed., "Economic Time Series Models with Random Walk and Other Nonstationary
Components" (June/September 1988), 12: 505–522. |
|
"Portfolio Insurance and Other Investor Fashions as
Factors in the 1987 Stock Market Crash," in Stanley Fischer, ed., NBER
Macroeconomics Annual, 1988. |
|
"Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends"
(with John Campbell), Journal of Finance (July 1988), 43(3): 661–676. [CFDP
858] |
| 1987 |
|
"Are Institutional Investors Speculators?" Journal
of Portfolio Management (1987), 13(3): 46–52. |
|
"Conventional Valuation and the Term Structure of
Interest Rates," in Rudiger Dornbusch, Stanley Fischer and John Bossons, eds., Macroeconomics
and Finance: Essays in Honor of Franco Modigliani. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1987,
pp. 63–88. |
|
"Estimating the Continuous-Time Consumption-Based
Asset-Pricing Model" (with Sanford J. Grossman and Angelo Melino) Journal of
Business and Economic Statistics (1987), 5(3): 315–27. |
|
"Expectations," in John Eatwell, Murray Milgate and
Peter Newman (eds.), The New Palgrave, New York: Stockton Press, 1987. |
|
"Fashions, Fads and Bubbles in Financial Markets,"
in Jack Coffee, ed., Knights, Raiders and Targets: The Impact of the Hostile Takeover.
Oxford University Press, 1987. |
|
"Prices of Single-Family Homes Since 1970: New Indexes
for Four Cities" (with Karl E. Case), New England Economic Review
(September/October 1987), 46–56. [CFDP 851] |
|
"Ultimate Sources of Aggregate Variability," American
Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings (1987), 77(2): 87–92. [CFDP 816] |
|
"The Volatility
of Stock Market Prices," Science (January 2, 1987), 235: 33–37.
[CFP 670] |
| 1986 |
|
"Financial Markets and Macroeconomic Fluctuations,"
in James L. Butkiewicz, ed., Keynes Economic Legacy. Praeger, 1985. |
|
"The Marsh–Merton Model of Managers' Smoothing of
Dividends," American Economic Review (1986), 76(3): 499–503. |
| 1985 |
|
"Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis: Power Versus
Frequency of Observation" (with Pierre Perron), Economics Letters (1985),
18: 381–386. [CFDP 732] |
| 1984 |
|
"The Determinants of Interest
Rates: Old Controversies Reopened" (with John Y. Campbell), AEA Papers and
Proceedings (May 1984), 74(2): 44-48 (with John Y. Campbell) [CFP 595] |
|
"Expectations and the Prices of Long-Term Assets,"
in Pierre Malgrange and Pierre–Alain Muet (eds.), Contemporary Macroeconomic
Modelling. Basil Blackwell, Oxford, 1984. |
|
"A Simple Account of the Behavior of Long-Term Interest
Rates" (with John Y. Campbell), American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings
(1984), 74(2): 44–48. |
|
"Smoothness
Priors and Nonlinear Regression," Journal of the American Statistical
Association (1984), 79(387): 609–615. [CFP 593] |
|
"Stock Prices
and Social Dynamics," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (1984), 2:
457–498. [CFDP 719R, CFP 616] |
|
"Theories of Aggregate Stock Price Movements," Journal
of Portfolio Management (1984), 10(2): 28–37. |
| 1983 |
|
"Forward Rates and Future Policy: Interpreting the
Term Structure of Interest Rates" (with John Y. Campbell and Kermit L. Schoenholtz), Brookings
Papers on Economic Activity (1983), 173–224. [CFDP 667] |
| 1982 |
|
"Consumption, Asset Markets and Macroeconomic
Fluctuations," Carnegie–Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy,
Vol. 17. North-Holland Publishing Co., 1982, pp. 203–238. |
|
"Consumption Correlatedness and Risk Measurement in
Economics with Nontraded Assets and Heterogeneous Information" (with Sanford
Grossman), Journal of Financial Economics (1982), 10: 195–210. |
| 1981 |
|
"Alternative Tests of Rational Expectations
Models: The Case of the Term Structure," Journal of Econometrics
(1981), 16: 17–87. |
|
"The Determinants of the Variability of Stock Market
Prices" (with Sanford Grossman), American Economic Review (1981), 71:
222–227. |
|
"Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by
Subsequent Changes in Dividends?", American Economic Review (June 1981),
71(3): 421–436. Reprinted in Paul Whitely, ed., Economic Policy, Cheltenham,
UK: Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd., 1996, and in The History of Management Thought,
Aldershot Hants, UK: Dartmouth Publishing Company, 1997. |
|
"The Use of Volatility Measures in Assessing Market
Efficiency," Journal of Finance (1981), 36: 291–304. |
| 1980 |
|
"Can the Federal Reserve Control Real Interest
Rates?", in Stanley Fischer (ed.), Rational Expectations and Economic Policy,
National Bureau of Economic Research and University of Chicago Press, 1980. |
|
"Distributed Lag Estimators Based on Linear Coefficient
Restrictions and Bayesian Generalizations of These Estimators," IHS Journal
(1980), 4:163–180. |
| 1979 |
|
"Coupon and Tax Effects on New and Seasoned Bond Yields
and the Measurement of the Cost of Debt Capital" (with Franco Modigliani), Journal
of Financial Economics (1979), 7: 297–318. |
|
"The Volatility of Long Term Interest Rates and
Expectations Models of the Term Structure," Journal of Political Economy
(1979), 87: 1190–1219. |
| 1978 |
|
"Rational Expectations and the Dynamic Structure of
Macroeconomic Models: A Critical Review," Journal of Monetary Economics
(1978), 4: 1–44. |
| 1977 |
|
"The Gibson Paradox and Historical Movements in Real
Long Term Interest Rates" (with Jeremy J. Siegel), Journal of Political Economy
(1977), 85(5): 891–898. |
| 1973 |
|
"A Distributed Lag Estimator Derived from Smoothness
Priors," Econometrica (1973), 41: 775–788. Also in Feinberg and
Zellner, eds., Studies in Bayesian Econometrics and Statistics, North Holland,
1975. |
|
"Inflation, Rational Expectations and the Term Structure
of Interest Rates" (with Franco Modigliani), Economica (1973), 40(157):
12–43. |
|
"Rational Expectations and the Term Structure of
Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (1973), 3:
856–860. |