A Foreign view of the Prospects of the Confederacy.
In a new country to which war appears not only in the aspect of a calamity, but also as a novelty, the people are apt to be too greatly elated by successes, or too deeply depressed by reverses. In Europe where every nation stands, even in peace in the attitude of a pugilist eyeing his antagonist with his hands up, war is a familiar occupation, and is examined and criticized with a calmness of judgment which can only be acquired by long experience. The article which we copy below from the last London Times will be interesting to Confederate croakers just now. It comes from a paper which is nobody's friend — certainly no friend of the Confederacy, except in as far as this nation by its strength may command that sort of friendship which muscle can always command. It is a paper which follows the popular current, and thoroughly illustrates in its conduct that beautiful characteristic of human nature which passes on the other side of the way from a beaten man, or makes a brief pause in its walk to give him a kick for having been unsuccessful in the fight:
[from the London Times, Jan. 5]
The American civil war has entered into the fourth year of its duration. So far, the predictions of European observers have been verified, and it now seems incomprehensible how American authorities could have taken such as inadequate measure of the calamity. Which side has suffered most in the conflict, or is at the present moment most capable of sustaining the terrible pressure on all the resources of the nation, is open to dispute; but that a pacific settlement of the quarrel is less possible now than in the first year of the war is certain. All the evidence compels us to assume that the struggle must continue. By the last intelligence we can, at least, form an estimate of how much of its avowed objects has been attained. The submission of the Southern Confederacy to the old central power of the Republic is the great end the war is to secure. The occupation or conquest of as much Southern territory as may compel that submission is the means by which the federation is to re-establish its authority. The abolition of slavery was combined with the war as a "military measure" only, though it is now made to appear the principal motive of the hostilities. The war commenced in the summer of 1861. The campaigns and battles of 1862 and 1863 are now matters of history. At the opening of 1864, how much Southern territory has the Northern Federation gained; what has been the effect of that occupation on the policy of the Southern States, and what progress has been made in the abolition of slavery?The greatest success of the North was the capture of Vicksburg, which, it was asserted, opened the whole course of the Mississippi, and divided the revolted States to the east and west of that river. Yet by the last accounts it is evident that the great river of the West is not "open" to navigation. The Federals hold New Orleans, at the mouth of the Mississippi, and many other points in its course, but the stream is as much closed for traffic as when the Confederates garrisoned Vicksburg. Not a steamer can pass up or down without the risk of being attacked by the Southern guerilla bands on both bank. The immense territory through which the river winds baffles all attempts to occupy it. The whole army of Gen. Grant now concentrated in East Tennessee would not suffice to "command" the Mississippi and "keep its navigation open." For the greater part of its course it runs through a territory of which the people, as our correspondent says, are "bitterly hostile" to the Federals, and, as the actual consequence of such hostility, the river is closed. The same difficulty is encountered on the inland lines of communication.
All the troops the North could raise would not be enough to fight and protect many hundreds of miles of railway at the same time. It would require 100,000 men to keep the single line from the Mississippi to Chattanooga in working order. The distances appear to bafile all military skill, and so diminish the value of a successful operation that it is followed by very slight resules. Of country may be too large for decisire war, and the wake of whole armies in America seems to prove the fact. Napoleon swept over everything between Paris and Vienna, but Spain and Russia denied him and exhausted his troops in a conflict with nature itself. Gen. Grant is now contending with the same kind of difficulties, while the Southern forces appear to be rallying in his front and rear. It is evident that the Federal occupation of Eastern Tennessee, even if it can be maintained, will not bring the war nearer to a conclassion.
In Virginia the Southerners have lost nothing in all the campaigns, and every attempt impenetrate their country in this direction has been defeated.--The real task of the Army of the Potomac is to defend Washington, which has as frequently been in danger of capture during the war as Richmond.--The siege of Charleston has failed, and the fleet of monitors has suffered so much damage during the operation, that it cannot venture within range of the Confederate batteries. The blockade of the Southern coast does not deprive the people of an ample supply of imported articles, nor does the depreciation of their currency appear to disable them from purchasing. Goods to the value of a million dollars arrive in the port of Wilmington every four and twenty hours. The contrabrand trade must be profitable in spite of captures and inconvertible Southern notes. It seems also that the description of suffering and want endured in the South given in the Northern journals, have been grossly exaggerated.
The general state of affairs of the Confederacy, and, what is more important, the feeling of the people, indicate both ability and determination to continue the struggle. They consider Mr. Lincoln's last proclamation as a mere device to secure political support in the North. Its terms they regard with contempt. Time enough has now clapsed to test the effect of his first proclamation in reference to slavery. From Mr Lincoln's message to Congress, it appears that the total number of slaves the Federal armies have liberated is 100,000. This is the whole result of three years of war in the name of Abolition. And at an awful price it has been obtained. For every negro thus need it is calculated that three white men have been killed in the contest. If the four millions of blacks are only to be emancipated at the same cost, the calculation becomes something terrible, and the feelings of humanity will be appealed to on behalf of the superior race. The worst evil that has grown out of the system of slavery is the war carried on to extinguish it.
To be successful, the conquest of the Southern territory must be complete, and, after all the waste of life and money, most of the task has still to be done. What has been effected in the work of abolition is even less in proportion. The war has liberated one hundred thousand negroes, leaving the condition of millions of slaves unaltered. Can the most bigoted philanthropist assert that, as a war of emancipation, the conflict has been marked by success? Or, taking it as a war of conquest, has the North gained territory enough from the South to destroy its power of resistance and make its return to the Union inevitable? If either of the objects of the struggle had been obtained, the fourth year of the war would not have found these questions open and unanswered.
