Menendez corruption, again.

New Jersey Democratic senator Bob Menendez in trouble for corruption, again.

The New Jersey disconnect

MetLife Stadium is in New Jersey, the state Democrats are trying to say the won in the 2021 gubernatorial election.  Meanwhile at a recent soccer match, the entire MetLife stadium did this (warning, language):

The whole stadium was chanting, or at least nearly so. There's a disconnect between counted votes and the reality on the ground.  Make no mistake, "found ballots" will always be enough to put Democrats over the top in some states, but there is an emergent disconnect between winners and reality.

Bloodbath for Democrats

 Now it's time to shine. Virginia proved to be a sweep for Republicans:

Glenn Youngkin saves the day. The gubernatorial candidate bested Democrat Terry McAuliffe in yesterday’s elections in the Old Dominion. The GOP dominated the state, clinching all three statewide officed. Youngkin clinched the governor’s win. Jason Miyares is our new attorney general. And Winsome Sears is our lieutenant governor. She’s the first black woman to occupy the office. The House of Delegates also flipped 51-49.

Meanwhile In New Jersey, as of this posting Republican upstart, longshot candidate for governor, Jack Ciattarelli holds a very slim lead over Democrat incumbent Phil Murphy.  This was a state that guy (Brandon) carried in 2020 by double digits. Of course every vote is not counted and surely some will be counted twice, so there's that.

Make no mistake though (although the Democrats most likely will), this is a foreshadowing of the 2022 midterm elections, provided Democrats do not change course.  The Democrats tried to make the Virginia election about president Trump. They failed. It appears they are going to make the defeat about president Trump (aka RACISM!!!) as well. If they fail to learn the lesson and swallow their own Kool Aid, 2022 could end up worse than the shellacking they took in 2010. History repeating no doubt.  Democrats could learn from this. Prior to that 2010 bloodbath, in 2009 Republican Bob McDonnell upset Democrat favorite Craig Deeds.  And in New Jersey, Chris Christie upset heavy favorite Jon Corzine.

I don't believe Democrats are capable of doing anything as far as strategy anymore other than doubling down.  There's a limit of course as to how much the GOP can win, but 2022 may in fact hit that limit at this rate. 

Midterms Matter: In New Jersey's 11th district, please support Jay Webber

I'm starting to wonder if the various NYT/Sienna polls are interviewing native New York City liberals for polls across the country as they are consistently showing outlier Democrat leads in races across the country.  In New Jersey's 11th district, Republican Jay Webber has been polling within the margin of error in a tight race in a district president Trump carried in 2016.

Democrat carpetbagger, Mikie Sherrill viciously assaulted her opponent, dragging his children into the campaign as part of a statement, and then refused to apologize for it.  She is literally being backed by the progressive Elite who are out of touch with common people.

Jay Webber is a different kind of candidate.

Jay Webber serves in the New Jersey General Assembly representing the residents of the Garden State’s 26th Legislative District and has been called “the conservative conscience of the State Legislature.” He serves on the Assembly’s Labor and State & Local Government Committees. Assemblyman Webber and his wife Johanna live with their seven children in Morris Plains, where Assemblyman Webber is a trustee of St. Virgil’s Parish and a volunteer youth basketball and baseball coach.

For his legislative service, Assemblyman Webber has earned the Taxpayer Hero Award from Americans for Prosperity-NJ; the Outstanding Legislator of the Year Award from the NJ Society for Environmental Economic Development; and the Defender of the Family Legislative Award from the NJ Family Policy Council.

When you contrast that, with this radical agenda, there's really no reason not to vote for Jay Webber:

On the issues, Jay Webber is far closer to common sense values. Please support his efforts; volunteer, donate or at least check out his positions on his website. And by all means - vote.

Thank you.

Midterms Matter: New Jersey it's not just scandal, it's hypocrisy.

Besieged New Jersey senator Bob Menendez is not just scandal-plagued, he's a hypocrite.  Vote for his opponent and do New Jersey a favor.

Midterms Matter: In New Jersey's 5th District, please support John McCann

Despite the fact that both president Trump and then candidate Mitt Romney carried the New Jersey 5th district, the district seems to be considered a leans Democrat district.  That could be due to the fact that the incumbent is a Democrat.  The incumbent is also a Clinton insider, indeed, protege, which carries it's own baggage to be sure.

In fact, while campaigning as a fiscal moderate, the incumbent congressman also has very liberal social views. He opposed the Trump tax cuts on the basis that taxes would go up.  In fact they did, for people like him.  But for the average voter the tax cuts have been a boon.  He was wrong on that and even more wrong on the fiscal impacts he spouted before the entirely predictable results proved him wrong:

John McCann believes tax cuts help ordinary Americans, not the elite.  He's right, he's been right, and the policies he espouses are right for the state and for the country.  But in order to help get the ideas enacted, John McCann needs to win this election.

To do that, he needs your support in this important race. Please support his efforts; volunteer, donate or at least check out his positions on his website. And by all means - vote. 

 Thank you.

Midterms Matter: In New Jersey 2nd District, please support Seth Grossman

A September poll in this district put the Democrat ahead by 23 points.  This is a district that president Trump carried in 2016 by 4.6%  The poll is clearly wrong.  Yes, Seth Grossman is an underdog, but with a strong voter turnout among those who see the country improving, he could still win.

Seth Grossman cares about New Jersey, and he has common sense values.

But to represent the district, he needs your help to the finish line in this tight race.  Please support his efforts; volunteer, donate or at least check out his positions on his website. And by all means - vote. 

Thank you.

Midterms Matter: In New Jersey's 7th District, please support Leonard Lance

In New Jersey's 7th congressional district, representative Leonard Lance appears to be trailing slightly in his race against a hardcore progressive, elitist insider liberal Democrat. New Jersey is a left-leaning state but support for corruption and out of touch radicalism should not stand.

What should stand, is this:

Called a, “leading low-tax, limited government conservative from New Jersey” by Americans for Tax Reform, Leonard Lance has consistently stood up for conservative Republican principles like defunding Obamacare, stopping President Obama’s lawless executive actions and promoting fiscal and personal responsibility.

Having been involved in running a small family law practice with his twin brother Jim, Leonard Lance understands first-hand the importance of eliminating red tape and regulations burdens on small businesses. He has been endorsed by leading business groups for championing policies that encourage economic growth, job creation and a less intrusive federal government.

As the only New Jersey Republican on the House Energy and Commerce Committee, Leonard Lance has voted to take full advantage of our Nation’s energy potential, supporting the Keystone Pipeline bill, ending the ban on oil exports and stopping the Obama Administration’s unprecedented regulatory attack on affordable and reliable electricity.

Please support Leonard Lance's efforts; volunteer, donate or at least check out his positions on his website. And by all means - vote.

Thank you.

Midterms Matter: In New Jersey's 3rd District, please support Tom MacArthur

In August there was a poll that had Tom MacArthur's lying opponent ahead of him for New Jersey's 3rd congressional district seat by only one point.  In September that had jumped in a NYT poll to 10%.  It's not likely that an extreme liberal insider has that much of a lead, even in a blue state like New Jersey.  Nevertheless, this is a hotly contested race.

Tom MacArthur is a proven independent voice for the people of South Jersey. Congressman MacArthur was rated by the non-partisan Lugar Center as one of the most bipartisan and moderate Members of Congress based on his record of working with people in both parties to solve problems and get things done.

Given a choice between a moderate with a laser focus on New Jersey, and an extremist who says the things moderates want to hear despite the progressivist views and agenda, the choice is clear.  In this tight race, every vote will count.

Please support Tom's efforts to continue to serve New Jersey volunteer, donate or at least check out his positions on his website.  And by all means - vote.

UPDATE: This race is is still closer than the NYT indicates.

Midterms Matter: In New Jersey, you really should consider Hugin

New Jersey is currently being represented by a U.S. senator who despite not being convicted, is clearly a scandal-plagued Washington D.C. insider, bent on personal benefit with little concern for his constituents, other than scheming to keep their votes. Even liberals can see that.

Why would you settle for such corruption in your leadership? Menendez is not your only choice. Bob Hugin offers a real alternative for a pro New Jersey representative.  From humble beginnings, he's become a Republican who understands what matters to the people of New Jersey.

Bob Hugin is a New Jersey success story who came from humble beginnings to live the American Dream. Now he’s running for United States Senate to ensure that opportunity is available for future generations growing up in every single community in our great state.

Born and raised in New Jersey, Bob grew up in a diverse, hardworking neighborhood in Union City, Hudson County, where his parents instilled in him an obligation to serve others. He was the first person in his family to attend college, earning a full scholarship to Princeton University...

Bob spent the last 19 years as a leader in healthcare and vocal advocate for modernizing the American healthcare system, serving as Chairman and CEO of the Celgene Corporation and as a Trustee of the Atlantic Health System for the last decade. When Bob joined Celgene in 1999, the company had approximately 200 employees and less than six weeks of cash. Under Bob’s leadership and through the work of its employees, that company was transformed into one of New Jersey’s largest private sector employers – an innovative biotech company that is now known around the world for leading the fight against cancer and chronic disease. Forbes honored Celgene as #5 on a list of “America’s Best Midsize Employers” and #14 on a list of the “World’s Best Employers” in 2017.

New Jersey deserves better representation than it has gotten over the past years.  Bob Hugin can be that representation.  Please support his efforts; volunteer, donate or at least check out his positions on his website.  And by all means - vote.

Thank you.

NOW liberals suddenly get the idea of willful or dumb

Blame one, ignore the other?

I saw this article by liberal Paul Begala on CNN yesterday where he excoriates New Jersey governor Chris Christie for a political payback perpetrated by his office against the town of a Democratic mayor who refused to endorse Christie's 2013 bid for re-election (which Christie won handily).  Begala claims that either Christie knew about the political payback and was behind it, or else he was a clueless dolt who isn't running his administration well.  

It sort of sounds like what conservatives have been saying about Obama for years, on issue after issue.  But there's a difference.

Chris Christie's RINO genius

New Jersey governor Chris Christie has managed to anger practically everyone by calling for a special election to replace New Jersey's U.S. senator Frank Lautenberg who passed away this week.  Everyone that is, except his own election team.

Republicans are mad

The right was already mad at Christie for having embraced president Obama in the wake of hurricane Sandy just prior to the 2012 election.  Many see it as having stalled Mitt Romney's momentum as he had gained on, and even surpassed Obama in polling. Of course not everyone on the right was sad to see Romney lose as he had a lot of RINO red flags of his own.  But this was an us versus them election and Christie was sleeping with the enemy.  It wasn't the first red flag for Christie, nor it turns out would it be his last.  Having declined to appoint a Republican to replace Lautenberg until 2014, he gave up a chance to give some Republican a fighting chance in that 2014 election in a very Democratic state.

Democrats are mad

But Democrats aren't happy with Chrisite's decision either.  The special election is only a few weeks before the next statewide election in which Christie is up for re-election as well.  By having it on a non-election day Christie may avoid helping Democrats with greater turnout on the regularly scheduled November election day.  And who knows, on a non-standard day, perhaps a Republican could actually pull off an upset and win the senate seat.  Democrats are laughably saying it will cost a lot extra for the state to do this.  Expense control and Democrats don't belong in the same paragraph, but it's the argument they are trying to use.  In the end though, Democrats will in all likelihood win this special election.  What they are really trying to achieve here is to unseat Christie.  They want every edge they can get and Christie has appeared bi-partisan enough (embracing Obama after hurricane Sandy) that Democrats would need every edge they can find to unseat him.

Conservatives don't like Christie

Christie has proven himself to be a RINO.  He first came across as a Tea Party pragmatist but has since turned out to be a political opportunist.  He's doing what he needs to do to further his own political career which very likely includes ambition for a stint in the White House.  Christie's actions continue to be Christie-centric.  How does this special election help Christie?

This still works for Christie 

By dampening possible turnout this November, Christie improves his chances of winning re-election as governor of the state.  That in turn makes the notion of his ability to win, even in a blue state, stronger.  It improves his chances to win the GOP nomination in 2016 and perhaps the presidency as well.  Some low information Republican voters might see Christie's special election move as a populist maneuver. He's saying the people should decide and not him.  Never mind that he was elected to do a job, including making appointments, many voters won't see that.  And many will see him as being post-partisan. On the right, Christie also can make the argument that he's not impacting the balance of power in the senate so it's folly to make a purely partisan pick.  He can contrast himself with a Democratic governor who was truly wrong in his approach to appointing a senator - Rod Blagojevich.

RINO genius

In reality, no matter who Christie would have picked it would have created detractors.  He sidesteps all of that.  But in doing so he has also sidestepped his conservative obligations.  While an appointee would not shift the senate balance of power, he has still outed his self-serving nature in this decision.  It's a genius move although I don't think most conservative voters will fall for it.  But Christie is looking to establish a base that includes more non-aligned voters and some Democratic voters who see him as being less partisan than other Republicans.  On balance it probably wins him more votes in New Jersey than he loses though.

But that's why I call him a RINO.  RINOs by definition are typically those GOP senators or representatives but all to often vote with the Democrats.  A broader definition is needed - those GOP party members who put personal gain ahead of party principles (whether it's voting with Democrats or self-serving decisions in general).  A lot of GOP leadership could be described as RINO by that definition.  I'm okay with that because it applies to a lot of people in the GOP.  Christie may have helped his re-election chances and his chances in 2016, but it's really not helping him with conservatives nor should it.

What to make of Jersey?

In a Quinnipiac poll released last week that headlined how voters felt about the TV show Jersey Shore, President Obama's approval numbers, underwater, went from bad to worse, but he'll probably still win the state if the deeper dive in the data holds true.

Primary Day - VOTE

If you are in any of the following states, make sure your voice is heard in the primaries that are being held today.  The links below offer some interesting insights into the various races - if you are a political junkie, they are worth checking out.

California

New Jersey

Nevada

South Carolina

Iowa

Maine

Montana

North Dakota

South Dakota

Virginia

Predictions anyone?

Pelosi dismisses Dem losses in Virginia and New Jersey

From POLITICO -- Pelosi dismisses Dem losses in Virginia and New Jersey.

She actually used the phrase "...we won last night." There's putting on a brave face, there's being delusional about reality and then there's Nancy.

If she believes that and that they have the votes for health care then she's an asset to the GOP. In any reasonable calculation of getting two additional health care votes, you'd want to factor in how many Democrats might be hesitant to sign on to a controversial health care bill.

By my count there are 2 Democrat Senators from Virginia, and 6 Congressional representatives. In New Jersey, 2 Senators and 8 Congressmen. That's a possible relunctant population of 4 Senators and 14 Congressmen. Not all would be swayed by the gubernatorial results, but that doesn't even take into account other Blue Dog Democrats or Democrats running in red states who might be a bit more nervous today. Two just doesn't seem like any sort of win.

2 Out of 3 Ain't Bad. So What Now?

Let's not get trapped in the civil war dialogue being propogated by the mainstream media about discord on the right.  With two out of three wins last night - the GOP re-taking the Governorships in Virginia (handily) and New Jersey (not surprisingly, but certainly in a statement to Democrats) - the Republican party is not dead.  Nor, despite the confusion - and resulting loss - in the NY23 district Congressional special election, is the GOP in internal turmoil (more on that later).  After all, despite wanting and almost expecting a sweep, 2 out of 3 ain't bad.  So now what?

There are takeaways for both parties from the results last night.  For Democrats, there are two options - they can ignore and spin away the loss as isolated instances (as many will), or they can take notice and adjust their actions accordingly (as some will too).  Certainly any Blue Dog Democrat, or Democrat in a traditionally conservative district will have to reconsider their positions on health care and capand trade if they are serious about political self-preservation.  I would expect to see, as Harry Reid says, a delay in the health care bill until 2010 at least.  If Pelosi though she had the votes, she probably won't be saying the same thing today.  The same holds true for cap and trade.  Don't expect it to get picked up and moved along any time soon.

On another level, while the President was supposedly watching the Bulls game last night, if that's the truth, certainly his campaign strategists weren't watching with him.  Obama pushed hard in both Virginia and particularly New Jersey for the Democrats.  Certainly he would be hoping the voters would be kinder to Democrats.  and most certainly he has to be concerned about the lack of a coat-tail effect in 2009 and into 2010 because of the fact that it may bleed away support from at risk Democrats for his liberal agenda.

So what's the takeaway?  Has the country shifted right? No.  The country never shifted left.  America is still a center-right country. What happened can be viewed from two positions; (1) the coat-tails don't exist (in which case Obama's personal popularity, while possibly helping him in 2012, won't help much or at all in 2010 or (2) they've gone over the edge in terms of their agenda and need to reel it back before next November or they could be completely gamed by the GOP.  Both of those viewpoints are not necessarily mutually exclusive either.  Whether the Democrats pay attention to the takeaways is a little less clear.

What are the takeaways for the GOP? Both victorious Republicans ran positive message campaigns.  That's a starting point and a lesson worth noting.  The temptation to Obama-bash will be huge in 2010.  The problem is that it doesn't work.  Both losing Democrats in yesterday's elections included Bush-bashing in their campaigns.  Negativity doesn't fly, not right now.  While the stop-Barack message plays well with those of us in the base, the independent are looking for alternative visions.  A positive message gets through much better. Reagan ran a positive message, vision campaign.  If you want to be a Reagan Republican, you need to have something more to offer than "I'm not him." (meaning the Democrat incumbent).

There's another important takeaway from from the NY23 congressional district race in which the Conservative Party candidate lost a seat held by Republicans for 110 years, to a Democrat.  Firstly, the GOP leadership needs to have primaries and not install candidates like Scozzafava as if their potentate whims will guide the party back to greatness.  NO.  That's no different than Obama, or Democrats excluding the GOP from involvement in crafting the health care bills.  It's autocratic not democratic.  Worse still, it leads to stupid candidate decisions. The party of small government, the party of Reagan, who said government IS the problem, is embodying the proof of that statement within the confines of their own party decision-making.  The GOP is supposed to be the party of the free market.  That should apply to the free market of ideas, and therefore, there should be a free market for candidate selection.  Of course, there's a point to be made about the primary being closed to only GOP registered voters.

Many people are pushing the fable that the GOP is involved in a civil war between conservatives and moderates. Roger Simon argues that the country, while being center-right is only so fiscally, not socially. Social conservatives argue that they are still the core of the Republican party.  That sort of argument plays into the GOP civil war meme.  But that's a real over-simplification of what real only amounts to vigorous debate.  Open primaries at local levels would solve the issue. If Rhode Island Republicans want to nominate less conservative candidates than do Texans in their respective primaries, they should be able to do so.  That would allow the negotiation on ideas, assuming both are electable, to be between conservative Republicans and less conservative Republicans.  It's not an ideal situation, but at least it wouldn't involve the likes of a Dede Scozzafava, who torpedoed her own party after having benefitted from campaign support from the party.

Yet another takeaway for the GOP is that the disaffection of the center from Obama and the absolute distate for his ideas from the right is an opportunity.  The GOP has seemed not only unfocused in its candidate selection methodologies, but also stubbornly resolute about them.  Worse still, it seems unable to garner real traction on the public sentiments towards Obama's policies.  Were I at the RNC, I would be feverishly working towards crafting messages that aren't anti-Obama but anti-liberal-policy and offered clear distinct alternative solutions, explanations as to why they are better solutions, and then hammering those messages to anyone who will listen and even those who won't.  You've got to plant those seeds now if you want to harvest their bounty next fall.

Instead of focusing on whether we conservatives/Republicans really are in a civil war, the GOP has to start rising above that fray and do so immediately.  They've got to walk the walk of transparency, which means no candidate appointments, it means primaries for candidates.  It's more than just messing up on Scozzafava, it's about living the values they supposedly espouse.  An autocracy of a cabal of Republicans is no better than the autocracy of a cabal of Democrats. Same shoe, other foot.

Get ready for the spin

Expect to see a few things this evening after the Republican/conservative sweep of the three high profile races in New Jersey, Virginia and NY23 (and yes, I'm feeling more confident about a sweep than just yesterday).

What you can expect to see, in various forms, is spin. The first form it will take is that turnout is low. Liberals will argue that because Obama was not on the ballot, the under-card candidate could not benefit from his magnificent presence on the ballot. There may be some truth in that, but it is one factor of many, and not the dominant one.

True, youth may have turned out in smaller numbers but if you look at the voting patterns of those who did turn out, I predict the numbers will be vastly different from 2008. And don't forget that President Obama personally stumped for ALL 3 Democrats in these races.

The first type of spin will be refutable - the numbers will point to a shift in attitudes of those who voted.  It's important to get those conservative vote totals high for that reason.  And it's important to be able to counter the anti-"anti-Obama" spin. It should be easy to accomplish that.

As a result, the spin itself will morph into another form. Already the White House is saying that the votes reflect the recession and not Obama personally. Never mind that it's now his recession. But the spin telegraphs the spin to come tonight. Expect the media to kick into high gear about the fact that the elections were about local issues and local conditions. NY23 has always been conservative. New Jersey was about Corzine and local corruption. Virginia, well maybe they're just racist or only Obama could overcome the conservative bent of the state. Forget all about all that talk we did about Virginia's demographics changing over the last decade or more. What we say now is accurate, for now.

While laughable, that's harder to refute without any meaningful exit polling or follow up surveying in the affected regions.  If I were the GOP I'd be all over some post-election surveying to see who voted, their party afiliation, how they voted and how they'd previously voted.  It will make for some great insight and likely also some great Republican and conserative talking points.

Lastly, the spin will likely change once again but only if it absolutely has to do so.  The last meme will be that while the vote was indeed a message to Democrats, it doesn't signal the need for a drastic change.  What it really means is a better effort at communicating with the American public.  Yes, continue to keep conservative and Republican lawmakers at bay, but at least make it look like you care. And it doesn't mean make it look to liberals like you care, it means make the conservatives think you care.  It will launch Democrats into campaign rhetoric mode at that point.  And the spin will be that the message is that people feel they aren't being heard - watch for more town halls but in a more controlled way.  The spin will become we were told, we listened, and we're listening now, so please continue to adore us...yeccchhhhh.

UPDATE:  I'd forgotten the other, cries of ballot-rigging spin by the left.  RedState has the story.

Reading the Races: Virginia and New Jersey

It's been three days since I've had a chance to blog and I'm itching to get back to it.  Unfortunately I haven't had the chance to work on it over the past week or so, I've got about 15 half-baked ideas to work on, and I'm still pressed for time.  But while I have a couple of minutes, I'd like to just throw in a bit about the elections in Virginia and New Jersey this coming Tuesday.

While it looks like Virginia is a lock for a Republican governor with McDonnell opening as much as a 13 point lead on his Democratic opponent, New Jersey seems to be a bit scarier for the GOP. Rasmussen has a paragraph on it here. Chris Christie is clinging to a lead of only a few points over the incumbent Jon Corzine.  That's down from a much larger cushion earlier this summer.  In fact in the latest Quinnipiac poll puts Corzine ahead. Meanwhile some of that anti-Corzine energy is being drained away by the third party candidate.

It would be a shame to see a Corzine victory in New Jersey.  I'm hoping that enough of those opposed to Corzine and leaning towards Daggett will put aside their personal preference and get behind Christie.  Here's why.  A Corzine victory will provide President Obama and the Democrats in Congress and the Senate something to hang their hats on.  They can argue that while they lost Virginia, they still held New Jersey and therefore the split does not portend an anti-Democrat trend in the nation.  They can argue that their mandate has not been lost and that New Jersey was never in play.  On the other hand a GOP sweep of the only two states in play sends a message to Democrats.

Maybe not the President or Harry Reid or Nancy Pelosi, but it sends a message to blue dog Democrats and Democrats in red states to smarten up on health care, on cap and trade, on government oversight and a host of other issues.  Two big GOP wins, will make many Democrats listen.  And it might be just enough momentum to stop this Obamacare thing from going forward in any meaningful way.  Town halls and Tea Parties have made politicians take note (even if they pretend to ignore it). A Christie win in New Jersey however, provides the exclamation point on the sentence that people are not happy with the direction of the goverment right now.  I've got my fingers crossed for a strong conservative statement on election day. That means among other things a GOP win in New Jersey.