And the spin continues

The spin has spun out of control, from the disastrous Kamala Harris interview, right on into some recent polling. Here's a discussion on why it's a lot of crap.

Democrat spin cycle

When you don't have facts, you spin.  And with Kamala Harris, all you've got is a spin cycle; the facts are she's a bad candidate.  Not only didn't that stop Democrat talking heads from spinning, it mandate that they had to do exactly that.

Obama spin on Benghazi collapses

President Obama knew that Benghazi was a terror attack.  He wants to claim he said so right away.  But he let an unsustainable story continue to float through the news cycles in hopes that they could spin the attacks as not terror, and by doing so he is exposing himself as having played politics with the events all along.

Debate observations

There's so much to say about the debate last night and I don't have much free time today. Here are some high level thoughts:

Romney clearly won. Flash polls confirmed that the perception of voters watching was exactly that. Romney won by a wide margin - both the debate and the polling.

Romney won because he did what McCain would not do in 2008 - he went after Obama. He was not afraid to go on the offensive. He also backed up everything with facts and he didn't allow himself to be put on defense. He was dynamic. He had 4 minutes less than Obama of speaking time and yet liberal commentators complained he ran all over the moderator Jim Lehrer. He was just more engaging when he spoke.

Obama the media is spinning, looked like he didn't want to be there. Of course he didn't want to be there - he was getting his butt handed to him. Obama was not distracted - he was flustered, and frustrated and way out of his element on defense. Look for him to come out firing at Romney, guns blazing, at the next debate. He won't hold back. He can't afford a repeat of that first performance.

The post debate bounce for Romney may be blunted by polling sampling ratios but it will be undeniable. This will bring the race back to a dead heat over the next week. Which, means that Romney will in reality be ahead. Buut he won't stay there for long if his second debate performance is not close to his first in quality. He has set himself a high bar. The media will spin anything less as Romney reverting to form and Obama as doing the same.

Liberal pundits, who have elevated Obama to a mythical status seemed apoplectic last night. They can't believe their guy lost. They can't believe he isn't infallible. Today they will be recomposing themselves and readying for the next rouund.

Romney should, and will, be doing the same.

Debate Night thoughts

Obama supporters already know who won tomorrow's debate.

I've been reading opinions about the debate tomorrow night, and the consensus seems to fall into two categories.  Firstly, Democrats are downplaying the expectations for the president - he's not a great debater and Romney is, so Romney should win this thing.  Secondly, Republicans seem to think Romney needs to take the battle to Obama because he's down a few points and this is his chance to take a few calculated risks and go after Obama in a specific way while contrasting it with his own specific plans for recovery.

Obama's creative new media spin

Watch for this.  The president is looking like a fool with the media right now, but I'm telling you, it just might be his trick play.  As Ed Morrissey at Hot Air points out today, the president has seemingly alienated his entire right flank - the press corps - with the insulting notion that People Magazine is every bit as important as they are.

So what will the White House press corps think of Stephanie Cutter’s observation that the RPatz and Aniston beats are “equally important” to their work of covering the leader of the free world? Think that will assuage their concern over getting ignored for the last few months? Er …

But really, is it all that foolish?  What does the president gain by alienating them (assuming it isn't a faux alienation to begin with)?  The president ran quite successfully as an outsider in 2008.  With no such "us against the machine" argument to make to the angry masses this time, he's got to find another argument.  Or, he's got to make himself an outsider once again.  I've mentioned this in the past somewhere, but I don't recall the specific post.

He's been in power - he is the machine.  How do you change that?  Blame Republican obstructionism.  But the president has been trying that for two years and it hasn't done much other than keeping him treading water, roughly speaking.  So Plan B may have become Plan C.  The establishment against Obama meme can only be carried forward if he throws the liberal media establishment under the bus and has them turn on him.  You want to see an underdog?  Imagine Obama facing off against both the GOP and the Inside the Beltway media.  There's an underdog narrative that is easy to manufacture, and if you are trying to win back disillusioned youth voters, and Occupy Wall Street protesters with a high level of enthusiasm, then you have to be a true outsider. "Forget about Guantanamo still being open - clearly I'm a good guy because all of Washington hates me.  You really need to help me make all that change I promised in 2008 happen before 2016."

And if the meme doesn't stick, what has he lost, other than a couple of weeks?  Do you really think the media will stay angry at him?  They are also well positioned to disagree with the president up to the point of that crucial endorsement day when they will 'begrudgingly' endorse him because despite all of his flaws, he's still great.  Faux alienation. 

It's not a great plan, but have they ever had a great plan?

Well here's some spin I didn't expect

Redefining relevance.

Unexpected. I mentioned earlier today that the White House doesn't have a lot of room to spin the jobless numbers out today. It turns out, they amount of room they had was exactly 0.046%.

Inadvertent Spin for Cain

Having accused many of spin in the past, I believe I may have done it myself for Herman Cain, albeit inadvertently.

Steve Forbes recently had some positive things to say about Herman Cain's 9-9-9 plan. But at the same time he mentioned he prefers Rick Perry's idea for a flat tax (no mention of Gingrich's version of a plan published over a month ago).

Steve Forbes may be in the tank for Perry but I am not in the tank for Cain. I like his idea. Perry's may be good too, I haven't seen it yet. But to be clear, while Forbes may like Cain's plan, he has not endorsement and his preference seems to lie elsewhere.

Incidentally, I've moved closer to a preferred candidate among the many but I am not locked in. I have simply ruled out a few people. Meanwhile, I want to be fair to all of the candidates, hence the clarification for those who read my posts.

NYT Headline spin on Obama

Here's a quick example of the New York Times spins the story to make President Obama look good.  In fact, in this case they are only spinning the headline in President Obama's favor. But it becomes clear after you read the first paragraph.

Get ready for the spin

Expect to see a few things this evening after the Republican/conservative sweep of the three high profile races in New Jersey, Virginia and NY23 (and yes, I'm feeling more confident about a sweep than just yesterday).

What you can expect to see, in various forms, is spin. The first form it will take is that turnout is low. Liberals will argue that because Obama was not on the ballot, the under-card candidate could not benefit from his magnificent presence on the ballot. There may be some truth in that, but it is one factor of many, and not the dominant one.

True, youth may have turned out in smaller numbers but if you look at the voting patterns of those who did turn out, I predict the numbers will be vastly different from 2008. And don't forget that President Obama personally stumped for ALL 3 Democrats in these races.

The first type of spin will be refutable - the numbers will point to a shift in attitudes of those who voted.  It's important to get those conservative vote totals high for that reason.  And it's important to be able to counter the anti-"anti-Obama" spin. It should be easy to accomplish that.

As a result, the spin itself will morph into another form. Already the White House is saying that the votes reflect the recession and not Obama personally. Never mind that it's now his recession. But the spin telegraphs the spin to come tonight. Expect the media to kick into high gear about the fact that the elections were about local issues and local conditions. NY23 has always been conservative. New Jersey was about Corzine and local corruption. Virginia, well maybe they're just racist or only Obama could overcome the conservative bent of the state. Forget all about all that talk we did about Virginia's demographics changing over the last decade or more. What we say now is accurate, for now.

While laughable, that's harder to refute without any meaningful exit polling or follow up surveying in the affected regions.  If I were the GOP I'd be all over some post-election surveying to see who voted, their party afiliation, how they voted and how they'd previously voted.  It will make for some great insight and likely also some great Republican and conserative talking points.

Lastly, the spin will likely change once again but only if it absolutely has to do so.  The last meme will be that while the vote was indeed a message to Democrats, it doesn't signal the need for a drastic change.  What it really means is a better effort at communicating with the American public.  Yes, continue to keep conservative and Republican lawmakers at bay, but at least make it look like you care. And it doesn't mean make it look to liberals like you care, it means make the conservatives think you care.  It will launch Democrats into campaign rhetoric mode at that point.  And the spin will be that the message is that people feel they aren't being heard - watch for more town halls but in a more controlled way.  The spin will become we were told, we listened, and we're listening now, so please continue to adore us...yeccchhhhh.

UPDATE:  I'd forgotten the other, cries of ballot-rigging spin by the left.  RedState has the story.

Right on cue!

Earlier this morning I posted about the the economic recovery and how I was somewhat bearish, despite the spin coming out of the White house and the mainstream media. As if right on cue, this report from Bloomberg today;

Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- The number of Americans filing first-time claims for jobless benefits unexpectedly rose last week, while the number of people on unemployment rolls dropped to the lowest since April, signaling the labor market may be stabilizing
as the recession eases.

Applications rose to 558,000 in the week ended Aug. 8 from a revised 554,000 the week before, the Labor Department said today in Washington, while staying under 600,000 for a sixth time. The number of people collecting unemployment benefits fell by 141,000 in the week ended Aug. 1 to 6.2 million.

Better-than-anticipated reports on manufacturing, housing and employment indicate the deepest job cuts may have passed. At the same time, while analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News say the government’s stimulus spending will spur economic growth as of this quarter, they predict it won’t stop the jobless rate from reaching 10 percent and restraining consumer spending.

...

Sales at U.S. retailers unexpectedly fell last month, the first decline in three months, as concern over jobs and stagnant incomes caused consumers to cut back on other items after taking advantage of the cash-for-clunkers program.

In it you can see spin "staying under 600,000 for a sixth time" as if that's supposed to be heartening. 558,000 is a really bad number. Furthermore, those collecting unemployment benefits dropped - in no small measure because those getting benefits eventually will reach the limit that benefits are paid. They could be moving over to welfare, or have given up on looking for work. How do you know it's really spin? It takes until the third paragraph to get to the fact that predicted jobless rates are still expected to reach 10%, a full 0.6% higher than now.

You can also see some of the nagging issues the economy still is faced with, prime among them, consumer spending, which arguably now could be following unemployment due to uncertainty. That would make unemployment a leading indicator, an interesting twist in forecasting.

Unemployment - Spin Spin Sugar

Everyone tries to put their points in the best light. It's human nature to try to look good, or as good as possible. But to not question what's being told to you, by the government in particular, is an unsound approach to taking in information. Why? Because they spin, spin sugar (no disrespect intended to the Sneaker Pimps).

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The number of newly laid-off workers seeking unemployment benefits fell last week, the government said Thursday, a sign that the job market is making gradual improvement.

Job losses are likely to slow in coming months, economists said, a trend that could be reflected in the government's July unemployment report to be released Friday.

"We believe the lower claims figures are an important economic development and confirmation that the economy is turning the corner," Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank, wrote in a note to clients.

First-time claims for jobless benefits dropped to a seasonally adjusted 550,000 for the week ending Aug. 1, down from an upwardly revised figure of 588,000 in the previous week, the Labor Department said.

[Emphasis added]

This isn't reporting the rising unemployment figure as a single number, it's saying the rate at which unemployment is increasing has slowed down. While that's a thin slice of a good sign, it seems a bit like pretzel logic. Especially when, buried near the bottom of the same article is the following paragraph;

The recession, which began in December 2007 and is the longest since World War II, has eliminated a net total of 6.5 million jobs. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 9.6 percent when the July figure is reported Friday.

[Emphasis added]

Tell me, why is it that the headline is about getting better ("drop more than expected"), when the situation is merely getting worse more slowly? I think you know the answer. If you're conservative you recognize the media bias and aren't swallowing the poison any more. If you are an independent, I mean a real one not a liberal claiming to be an independent, you probably realize this too. But if you are a liberal, how do you sleep at night? I understand the lies don't matter, and the ends justify the means garbage you espouse. But really, what type of conscience do you have to go along with this type of tripe? And if you really believe in all that help your fellow man, goodwill stuff, how can you possibly reconcile it with not only believing things are getting better, but actually spouting this drivel to convince people that things are going well when they really aren't. You should be ashamed of yourself, and ashamed of your President. Not for his beliefs (which are wrong nonetheless), but for his deceit and heavy handed approach to those who disagree with his views.

My advice, take it or leave it, is to wake up before you end up, Six Underground (apologies again, to the Sneaker Pimps).

I guess that turned into a bit of a rant. Well, rant over.