A Written Answer provides
a couple of interesting numbers about the Royal Navy today and in the
future. As of 5 December 2017, the Royal Navy and Royal Fleet Auxiliary have 72
commissioned surface ships. Note the date because it makes all the difference:
HMS Queen Elizabeth is not included as she was commissioned on 7 December. RFA
Tidespring is included as it was put into service on November 27. The River
Batch 2 Forth has not yet been commissioned, while HMS Severn left service back
in October.
Finally, as the first taste of cuts
coming from the “review that is not a review”, the two Hunt-class HMS Quorn and
HMS Atherstone left service on December 14 in a rather secretive
decommissioning ceremony in the BAE shed where they had been brought to be
refitted and life-extended.
HMS Gleaner, the smallest of the
commissioned units, also left service this month.
It must also be noted that, being
chartered as part of a PFI and not RFA owned and manned, the 4 Point-class RoRo
sealift vessels are not included in these calculations. They do not appear in
MOD statistics on the fleet.
Keeping all these notes in mind, we
can compose a list of the 72 vessels. The Written Answers does not detail it,
but the ships in commission by 5 December are well known:
6 Type 45;
13 Type 23;
2 River Batch 1 OPV
1 River Batch 1 (Helicopter) OPV
[HMS Clyde]
18 patrol vessels (16 P2000s Archer
class plus Scimitar and Sabre of the Gibraltar Sqn)
3 Survey vessels (Echo, Enterprise,
Scott)
15 MCM vessels (8 Hunt and 7
Sandown)
HMS Ocean
HMS Albion and HMS Bulwark
HMS Protector
2 Wave-class tankers
RFA Tidespring
3 Bay-class LSD(A)
3 Fort-class replenishers (Fort
Victoria plus Fort Rosalie and Fort Austin)
RFA Argus
As of today that has further shrunk
to 71, with HMS Queen Elizabeth coming into service but with 2 MCM ships
leaving. Forth will come into service later on.
As recently as 2016, the surface
fleet had counted 76 vessels, but the demise of the last couple of Rover-class tankers and
of RFA Diligence cut that down to 73, then 72 with the demise of HMS Severn.
Going back further, the number was
significantly higher and suffered a dramatic fall with the cuts mandated by the
SDSR 2010. 4 Type 22s, the Leaf-class tankers, Fort George... the list is impressive.
For the future, the Written Answer
announces that by December 2020 the surface fleet will include 77 vessels. That
total is also not explained, but can nonetheless be broken down with relative
ease:
2 Queen Elizabeth-class;
6 Type 45;
13 Type 23;
5 OPV
18 patrol vessels (16 P2000s Archer
class plus Scimitar and Sabre of the Gibraltar Sqn)
4 Survey vessels (Echo, Enterprise,
Scott, plus the as yet unnamed Gleaner-replacement due in May 2018)
13 MCM vessels (6 Hunt and 7
Sandown)
HMS Albion and HMS Bulwark
HMS Protector
2 Wave-class tankers
4 Tide-class tankers
3 Bay-class LSD(A)
3 Fort-class replenishers (Fort
Victoria plus Fort Rosalie and Fort Austin)
RFA Argus
The SDSR 2015 gave an MCM force of
12 vessels going towards 2025, so at least another MCM ships is expected to
vanish in the next future. According to press reports, two more could go as the
latest cut of 2 Hunt vessels is an urgent measure on top of the 3 vessels to be
lost as part of the SDSR. If this is accurate, the long term MCM fleet would go
down to just 10.
The “up to 6” OPVs appear to be
definitely 5, although a specific strand of review is supposedly looking at the
patrol fleet to see what the requirement Is, considering also Brexit and the
increased need to regulate fishing waters after it.
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| Taurus 2009 - apart from the french Dupleix on the left, the whole group was made in the Royal Navy |
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| Cougar 13 |
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| JEF-M 2016 |
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| JEF-M 2017. This sequence helps visualize the "growing Royal Navy". What will 2018 look like? |
Obviously, if the insane idea of
cutting the amphibious capability and decommissioning the LPDs early was to be
confirmed, the number of ships would rapidly shrink further.
In terms of number of hulls, the mythical
growth of the Royal Navy remains non-existent unless measured on today’s low
point. Even so, with further cuts very possibly on the way, any claim of growth
looks very puzzling if not downright dishonest.
Exercises in 2018
There has been a cull in the number
of training exercises planned for next year in an effort to save money, but
even so the programme remains very full. The Royal Navy in particular will not
have a Joint Warrior 18-2 but looks set to struggle all the same to generate
ships for all the things it is tasked to do. Written
Answers suggest that the Royal Navy will send out the Joint Expeditionary
Force (Maritime) next year. This is what was once called Cougar, and earlier
still Taurus. This year it did not take place as HMS Albion was regenerating
after coming out of mothball while one Bay was in the Caribbean pre-positioned
to respond to Hurricane season and HMS Ocean was committed to NATO duties in
the Mediterranean.
The Royal Navy will also take part
in Saif Sareea 3, the “biggest exercise in 15 years”, which will take place in
Oman and will be the first true test of the British Armed Forces’ ability to
still generate and deploy a Division-sized force abroad. Details are still
scarce about what units will take part and how, but if the exercise has
anything to share with the previous two events it will be very large.
Since Saif Sareea is due in the
autumn, which is also the normal COUGAR / JEF-M period, I’m guessing that the
two things will be closely related. Probably the JEF-M task group will head
towards Oman as the maritime side of Saif Sareea. That is, of course, unless
the cut to amphibious capability goes ahead and turns the UK JEF element in
nothing more than Marines on French amphibious vessels, plus perhaps a lone Bay
and an escort. The “Review that is not a review” can very well ensure that the
Royal Navy is unable to generate any meaningful task group before 2021 at the
earliest, when HMS Queen Elizabeth is scheduled for her first operational
deployment.
The Royal Navy will also take part
in the big NATO exercise Trident Juncture in Norway. On current planning
assumptions, as detailed in a November Written Answer, the UK will send:
from the Naval Service, three
destroyers and/or frigates, four mine counter measures vessels, a mine warfare
battle staff, and one Royal Marines Company;
from the Army, HQ 4
Infantry Brigade in command with squadrons from 11 Signals Brigade, Light
Dragoons, Engineers, combat service support, 1 Royal Irish and a Military
Police Platoon;
from the Royal Air Force, four
Hawk aircraft from 100 Squadron based at RAF Leeming.
While the precise details are yet to
be confirmed, it is expected that in the region of 2,300 Service personnel will
deploy on the exercise.
3 frigates / destroyers in the same
place at once are not an easy feat for today’s Royal Navy, especially
considering that 2 frigates (Argyll and Sutherland) are due to travel to the
Pacific and at least another is earmarked to escort HMS Queen Elizabeth to the
US east coast for her first F-35B flying trials in October.
The Royal Navy will also provide the
flagship for Standing NATO Maritime Group 2 (SNMG2) out to June 2018.
In addition to duties in the Gulf
and elsewhere, this ensures a full year.
Joint Helicopter Command is
particularly badly affected by cuts to training exercises, with much of its
overseas activity curtailed. Arctic training also gets a cut although thanks to
Trident Juncture a component of Royal Marines will still get in Norway.
Initially a single company was earmarked, but a new plan has been crafted that
will see two companies employed, as emerges from a December 14 Written Answer
to the Commons.
Strike Brigade changes
There has been a
significant change in plans for the Strike Brigades, with the Strike
Experimentation Group activated in April 2017 within 1st Armoured
Infantry Brigade.
Initially the SEG should have been
an independent formation which would have transformed in 2019 into one of the
two Strike Brigades. This has now changed, and SEG-1st AI Bde will
convert to the new role in 2020, while the second brigade remains unidentified.
The unit roster of 1st
Strike Brigade has also significantly changed, as it is now planned to include:
Household Cavalry Regiment (on Ajax)
Royal Dragoon Guards (on Ajax)
SCOT GDS (on MIV)
3 RIFLES (on MIV)
It is not clear how this impacts
plans that included having the King’s Royal Hussars being the first unit to
convert to Ajax, at the cost of losing Challenger 2 by 2019. This might now
happen a bit later.
Similarly, the conversion of 1 YORKS
from Warrior to MIV might also slip to the right.
The two Strike Brigades had earlier been expected to follow this scheme:
SEG on conversion to full brigade in 2019
-
Household
Cavalry Regiment
-
King’s
Royal Hussars
-
SCOT
GDS
-
4
SCOTS
1st Strike Bde
- Royal Dragoon Guards
- Royal Lancers
- 1 YORKS
- 3 RIFLES
Obviously, there has been quite a
shift in timelines and in the position of several units.
The 6th Typhoon Squadron
The identity of the 6th Typhoon Squadron has been revealed following the purchase by Qatar of 24 Typhoon Tranche 3 which will be assembled in the UK.
12 Sqn, currently a Tornado GR4 unit, will stand up in Coningsby and will be equipped with the latest standard of Typhoon. For a period of time the lenght of which is not yet known it will be a Joint Operational Squadron which will include Qatari elements as aircraft and personnel are worked up towards operational capability. The squadron will also deploy to Qatar to provide security for the Football World Cup.
The sale of Typhoon to Qatar is a very significant win for UK industry and ensures a few more years of activity for the Warton assembly line. Qatar is also expected to firm up a committment to 6 Hawk training jets, and has signed contracts to purchase Paveway IV, Brimstone and Meteor.
Overall, a very welcome boost for the UK defence industry. The JOS arrangement should also ease the costs connected with standing up the new squadron.
At least another Typhoon squadron is expected, but its identity is not yet known. It will stand up beginning next year in Lossiemouth. There was also talk of a third, but that might prove unfeasible.
The Joint New Air to Air Missile goes
ahead
The JNAAM is a development of Meteor
that will include, it is believed, an AESA seeker developed by Japan. This
evolved missile would then equip aircraft including the F-35s of both UK and
Japan. It is currently the most interesting joint programme among those
launched with the aim of deepening the bilateral collaboration. At the
Ministerial Meeting on 14 December the two
coutries agreed to looking forward “to the early embodiment of the joint
research project including the research prototyping and the launch testing”.
The ministers also “welcomed that
the first bilateral co-operative research project of Chemical and Biological
Protection Technology was successfully completed in July 2017. They welcomed
progress made on the Project for the Cooperative Research on Personnel
Vulnerability Evaluation, and confirmed the exploration of possible
co-operation on projects of interest including the Joint Preliminary Study on
Potential Collaborative Opportunities for Future Combat Air System/ Future
Fighter, launched in March this year”.
The JNAAM is very interesting on its
own, but it becomes even more important as it could help open a path to joint
development of that “Future Fighter” that could be the post-Typhoon face of UK
airpower and the future of the british aerospace industry.
“The Ministers welcomed the progress
of defence co-operation through bilateral and multilateral joint exercises,
including UK-Japan bilateral exercise Guardian North on the occasion of UK
Typhoons’ visit to Japan in 2016. The Ministers confirmed that in 2018 UK-Japan
bilateral ground exercise would take place for the first time in Japan and that
both countries would take various opportunities such as deployment of HMS
Argyll and HMS Sutherland to the Asia-Pacific region to conduct bilateral
exercises. The Ministers also decided to seek to regularise bilateral exercises
and others including observer exchanges. The Ministers also welcomed steady
progress in unit-to-unit exchanges, which are an important basis of the
bilateral relationship”.
