Amazing day of cricket yesterday, but no chicken counting just yet. Meanwhile, a quick update on my pre-series predictions, which are holding up rather well:
1. Series:
my first stab at predicting failed to factor in a drawn Cardiff test, the revised one was a 2-1 victory to whoever won at Lords. Which was England.
1/1 (hopefully)
2. Top run scorer:
England - Cook. Whoops. Strauss has run away with this, but everyone else in the top 5 has been a bit of a letdown. No. 6 Matt Prior is 2nd to Strauss, both on runs scored and batting average. Cook's place may now look shaky - time to give Denly a go?
Australia - Michael Clarke. Barring a traditional Oval match-saving 158 from another Aussie, Clarke is the top scorer by a mile. The new Ponting.
1/2
3. Top wicket taker:
England: Jimmy Anderson - this was looking fine until 2 innings ago, since when Broad has taken 11 scalps and suddenly it's young Stuart ahead of Anderson 17-12.
Australia: Mitchell Johnson, who somehow, despite bowling like Boycotts grandmother for most of the series, is on 20 wickets, level with Siddle and 1 behind Hilfenhaus. Could go to any of them. (update: it's Hilfenhaus by 2 wickets, 22 to 20, despite a late surge by Marcus North)
?/2
A note in passing: Broad is the only England bowler averaging under 40 for the series, whilst if you include Hauritz, the Aussies have 4 bowlers averaging under 33.
4. Crocks: Lee and Flintoff, which was 2/2 almost a month ago.
The temptation to take my Inbox of 101 emails (that's after deleting about 500 from Freecycle) down to the pub is almost overwhelming.
It's also hard not to think about the future, with Flintoff's farewell, and to wonder whether a bad series for Cook & Collingwood is just the fatigue of being ever-present, or the sign of something worse. Strauss's form has improved dramatically after he was dropped in early '08, and maybe every England player needs a 2-3 month sabbatical on rotation to keep them fresh and to stop them losing either form or fitness.
If England do win, it will be pretty amazing. Not least because, if you were picking your 11 of the series, only 3 England players (Strauss, Prior and Broad) would be in it. The Aussies have, overall, outbatted and outbowled England, but that's not reflected in the results. Instead the series has turned on particular sessions: the Cardiff rearguard, Anderson's Lords burst, Englands collapse at Headingley, and yesterday afternoon.
But let's see what happens today.....
Showing posts with label stupid predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label stupid predictions. Show all posts
Saturday, August 22, 2009
Monday, August 03, 2009
Ashes predictions revisited: 2
Around this time yesterday, I had the mad thought of whizzing up to Birmingham for the day. So glad I didn't act on it!!!
Series:
my latest prophecy was 2-1 to whoever wins Lords. That would be England then. We need less rain and spicier pitches for the last 2 tests, or it could even be 1-0.
Addition of Lee and/or Clark will make Australian bowling more potent, but Harmy has to come in for Broad - you don't pick a fast bowler for his batting, and Strauss has clearly lost confidence in Broad. He'll be back, but needs something extra to make him a threat at this level. But, Harmison's feet are currently 'a bit of a mess', covered in blisters and pretty painful.
If Flintoff has to drop out, then it gets tricky: it's a long tail starting with Swann at 7, but I'd go with Sidebottom to replace Freddie.
top run scorer: Predicted - Cook & Michael Clarke
Cook now a long way behind Strauss, who is running away with it on the England side. Time for a big hundred lad. Clarke is the top Aussie batsman so far, shaping up well to be the next Ponting.
top wicket taker: Predicted - Anderson & Johnson
Not bad: Anderson is on top for Ingerlund with 12 wickets, and if Johnson can avoid getting dropped then he's still in with a shout, all 4 Aussie bowlers are in the 10-12 wickets range. That's until Siddle gets dropped for Stuart Clark and he rips through England in the remaining 2 tests. All depends on whether the Aussies want to bring both Clark and Lee in, or just 1 of them.
Crocks: Predicted - Lee or Stuart Clarke/Flintoff.
Lee may be back for Headlingly, and Freddie literally on his knees today after going over on his ankle. Great batting from the big man yesterday. Hadn't predicted the loss of Brad Haddin, or KP, and to be honest England didn't miss him a great deal, though a 2nd spinning option might have been handy. The rest will do him good.
Series:
my latest prophecy was 2-1 to whoever wins Lords. That would be England then. We need less rain and spicier pitches for the last 2 tests, or it could even be 1-0.
Addition of Lee and/or Clark will make Australian bowling more potent, but Harmy has to come in for Broad - you don't pick a fast bowler for his batting, and Strauss has clearly lost confidence in Broad. He'll be back, but needs something extra to make him a threat at this level. But, Harmison's feet are currently 'a bit of a mess', covered in blisters and pretty painful.
If Flintoff has to drop out, then it gets tricky: it's a long tail starting with Swann at 7, but I'd go with Sidebottom to replace Freddie.
top run scorer: Predicted - Cook & Michael Clarke
Cook now a long way behind Strauss, who is running away with it on the England side. Time for a big hundred lad. Clarke is the top Aussie batsman so far, shaping up well to be the next Ponting.
top wicket taker: Predicted - Anderson & Johnson
Not bad: Anderson is on top for Ingerlund with 12 wickets, and if Johnson can avoid getting dropped then he's still in with a shout, all 4 Aussie bowlers are in the 10-12 wickets range. That's until Siddle gets dropped for Stuart Clark and he rips through England in the remaining 2 tests. All depends on whether the Aussies want to bring both Clark and Lee in, or just 1 of them.
Crocks: Predicted - Lee or Stuart Clarke/Flintoff.
Lee may be back for Headlingly, and Freddie literally on his knees today after going over on his ankle. Great batting from the big man yesterday. Hadn't predicted the loss of Brad Haddin, or KP, and to be honest England didn't miss him a great deal, though a 2nd spinning option might have been handy. The rest will do him good.
Monday, July 20, 2009
Woohoo!
Brilliant performance by England to win the Lords test.
Player ratings here
Liturgy for the defeat of the Aussies:
The Gathering
Archdruid: Haddin may last for the night
All: But Freddie striketh in the morning.
My predictions are looking ok: Clarke emerging as top Oz batsman, Cook starting to bat like a left-handed Vaughan but still plenty of work to do. I'd be surprised if Freddie lasts the series, but what a way to go. 2 main worries from Lords: if either Mitchell Johnson had bowled well, or the umpires had got the decisions right in the Aussie 2nd innings, we could well have lost.
Player ratings here
Liturgy for the defeat of the Aussies:
The Gathering
Archdruid: Haddin may last for the night
All: But Freddie striketh in the morning.
My predictions are looking ok: Clarke emerging as top Oz batsman, Cook starting to bat like a left-handed Vaughan but still plenty of work to do. I'd be surprised if Freddie lasts the series, but what a way to go. 2 main worries from Lords: if either Mitchell Johnson had bowled well, or the umpires had got the decisions right in the Aussie 2nd innings, we could well have lost.
Thursday, July 16, 2009
Ashes Predictions revisited 1
Not looking bad so far:
series: my predictions didn't cover a drawn first test, so whatever happens now they can't be wrong. 2-1 to whoever wins Lords.
top run scorer: Predicted - Cook & Michael Clarke
Cook didn't get many, but neither did anyone else apart from Colly, so there isn't much ground to make up. Clarke would have top scored in the England innings with his 83, but is currently lying 5th. Looked in good nick though.
top wicket taker: Predicted - Anderson & Johnson
Looking ok so far. Johnson got 5, 2nd to Hauritz, though he bowled some pies in the 2nd innings. Anderson is top with 2, so the England boys haven't really started yet. Just hope they get better! Also, Anderson is the only England bowler nobody is talking about dropping, so he's in for all 5 unless he blows a gasket.
Crocks: Predicted - Lee or Stuart Clarke/Flintoff.
Nearly 100% here. Lee out before the series started, and Flintoff was a serious doubt for Lords, we shall see today (update: he's fit to play). We now know that this will be his last series. He's a fantastic player, but I wouldn't be surprised if everyone else bowls better without him in the attack, and this is a team sport. It's tricky: does having a 'star' bowler inspire everyone else, or make them sit back a bit?
And just to note that Glenn McGrath's traditional prediction of a 5-0 whitewash has already gone by the board. He'd probably predict 5-0 in a 3 match series.
Update: an article on Cricinfo is titled 'Shades of Hughes in Siddle'. I know he's an aggressive guy, but I didn't know he liked to eat sunglasses. What will Phil Hughes do now?
series: my predictions didn't cover a drawn first test, so whatever happens now they can't be wrong. 2-1 to whoever wins Lords.
top run scorer: Predicted - Cook & Michael Clarke
Cook didn't get many, but neither did anyone else apart from Colly, so there isn't much ground to make up. Clarke would have top scored in the England innings with his 83, but is currently lying 5th. Looked in good nick though.
top wicket taker: Predicted - Anderson & Johnson
Looking ok so far. Johnson got 5, 2nd to Hauritz, though he bowled some pies in the 2nd innings. Anderson is top with 2, so the England boys haven't really started yet. Just hope they get better! Also, Anderson is the only England bowler nobody is talking about dropping, so he's in for all 5 unless he blows a gasket.
Crocks: Predicted - Lee or Stuart Clarke/Flintoff.
Nearly 100% here. Lee out before the series started, and Flintoff was a serious doubt for Lords, we shall see today (update: he's fit to play). We now know that this will be his last series. He's a fantastic player, but I wouldn't be surprised if everyone else bowls better without him in the attack, and this is a team sport. It's tricky: does having a 'star' bowler inspire everyone else, or make them sit back a bit?
And just to note that Glenn McGrath's traditional prediction of a 5-0 whitewash has already gone by the board. He'd probably predict 5-0 in a 3 match series.
Update: an article on Cricinfo is titled 'Shades of Hughes in Siddle'. I know he's an aggressive guy, but I didn't know he liked to eat sunglasses. What will Phil Hughes do now?
Tuesday, July 07, 2009
Ashes Predictions
Ok, time to make a complete idiot of myself:
Series:
2-1 to England if they win the first test, 2-2 if the Aussies do.
Top run scorer:
England: Alastair Cook. Time he had a big series, and seems to be in form - as, in fact, do most of the England batsmen. Most of the others will have a big score or two, but I'm guessing Cook will do what Trescothick did last time round and contribute in most innings.
Australia: Michael Clarke. Hughes will get peppered after his dismissals against Harmison, Ponting and Hussey also contenders, but not convinced Hussey is fully back in form yet. I'm sure he'll prove me wrong!
Top Wicket Taker
England: James Anderson. Just look at the records over the last 12 months. Swann could challenge this - not much between the two attacks in terms of pace bowling, but it's been a hot dry summer so far, and spin will come into it.
Australia: Mitchell Johnson.
Crocks
I'm guessing that one key player from each side won't last the series. My money is on Flintoff and Lee (whilst writing this on Monday, I discovered that Lee is out for the first 2 tests. Wohoo I'm a prophet! Ok, Flintoff and Stuart Clark).
Going to Cardiff for the Friday of the first test, so we'll see whether Freddie is right about the SWALEC stadium, or whether it's ok. I'll miss watching Lee bowl, which is a shame, but most of the bowlers on both sides are pretty spicy. Come on England!
Series:
2-1 to England if they win the first test, 2-2 if the Aussies do.
Top run scorer:
England: Alastair Cook. Time he had a big series, and seems to be in form - as, in fact, do most of the England batsmen. Most of the others will have a big score or two, but I'm guessing Cook will do what Trescothick did last time round and contribute in most innings.
Australia: Michael Clarke. Hughes will get peppered after his dismissals against Harmison, Ponting and Hussey also contenders, but not convinced Hussey is fully back in form yet. I'm sure he'll prove me wrong!
Top Wicket Taker
England: James Anderson. Just look at the records over the last 12 months. Swann could challenge this - not much between the two attacks in terms of pace bowling, but it's been a hot dry summer so far, and spin will come into it.
Australia: Mitchell Johnson.
Crocks
I'm guessing that one key player from each side won't last the series. My money is on Flintoff and Lee (whilst writing this on Monday, I discovered that Lee is out for the first 2 tests. Wohoo I'm a prophet! Ok, Flintoff and Stuart Clark).
Going to Cardiff for the Friday of the first test, so we'll see whether Freddie is right about the SWALEC stadium, or whether it's ok. I'll miss watching Lee bowl, which is a shame, but most of the bowlers on both sides are pretty spicy. Come on England!
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