Three Thousand Versts of Loneliness

A rather hectic week last week prevented me from commenting on the UUP’s nightmare start to the election campaign.  When Thursday started with high profile stories of a sex scandal and a resignation splashed across the newspapers Tom Elliott could hardly have expected the day to get worse.  Cometh the hour, cometh McNarry, who decided to tear into Basil McCrea and John McCallister, live on the Nolan Show. The pair had deviated from their leader’s view on Martin McGuinness and the First Minister’s position.  In league with North Belfast MLA, Fred Cobain, Elliott suggested to Liam Clarke that the UUP might form a single Assembly group with the DUP, after the election, in order to prevent Sinn Féin taking the top spot.  It was, he assured us, both possible and legal.  McCrea and McCallister begged to differ, insisting that unionists should simply accept the result of the election. It’s quite a merry-go-round for the Ulster Unionists.  The leader surprises leading figures within his o

News that the UUP has asked the Government for funding to form an opposition at Stormont confirms two things: 1) the party is taking seriously the possibility of leaving the Executive in order to hold it to account, 2) money is currently an impediment. Asking for cash is a sensitive issue in the current climate and rival parties are likely to attack the Ulster Unionists’ plans on that basis.  It must be said, though, that no system of government comes without a price tag.  It is inconceivable in most democratic systems that an opposition could function effectively without money to pay for researchers and other staff. There are plenty of ways to cut spending in over-governed, over bureaucratised Northern Ireland.  A little cash to breathe accountability into the system would be one of our wiser investments. If other parties fixate on the cost, it is more than likely because they are not genuinely committed to the principle of an official opposition in the first plance.  With Sinn

The following is the original copy for yesterday's Belfast Telegraph article - which is now online . Who’s to blame for the Ulster Unionists‘ latest batch of problems? According to Mike Nesbitt, they’re the media’s fault. The Strangford Assembly candidate told Stephen Nolan recently that journalists are driving a “narrative” which creates difficulties for the UUP. If that sounds a bit like shooting the messenger, Tom Elliott sounds like a man determined to shoot himself in the foot. In a newspaper interview, the Ulster Unionist leader blamed party members’ negativity. Low morale, “is being caused by our own people”, Elliott complained. Slamming your rank and file isn’t clever politics, but the Fermanagh Assemblyman is closer to the mark than Nesbitt. The Ulster Unionists’ problems are largely of their own making. The party is wracked with confusion, mixed messages and indecision. A couple of weeks ago the UUP looked set to embrace a fresh new strategy when it threaten

Did the Ulster Unionists suffer a failure of nerve or a failure of communication earlier in the week? The party looked all set to go to war over the draft budget, when  David McNarry, the UUP’s finance spokesman, announced that it was “unable to endorse” the document. The troops, though, were not yet mustered before they were stood down and yesterday McNarry appeared on the BBC’s Hearts and Minds , to confirm that his party was merely “reserving its judgement”. His interview, alongside the DUP’s Simon Hamilton, should make uncomfortable viewing for UUP supporters.  Their man wriggled and grimaced and backtracked and prevaricated. As soon as the Ulster Unionists’ apparent resistance to the budget emerged, I expressed scepticism .  I noted that the party had left open a semantic get out.  Withholding endorsement is not the same as outright opposition. I predicted that the UUP would complain, but ultimately fail to take a stand.  After all, the two Ulster Unionist ministers had

I spent the weekend in icy Fermanagh, and not at the Ulster Unionist conference.  Ironically, if the cliché rings true, half the County enjoyed subsidised transport in the other direction. Still, reportedly 400 delegates heard Tom Elliott deliver his speech at the Ramada Hotel in Belfast, whereas just shy of 1,000 crowded into the Waterfront Hall to elect him leader, so perhaps the Enniskillen fleet wasn‘t quite so well-filled this time. The speech is carried on the UUP website and it reads reasonably well, although the Belfast Telegraph reports that the delivery was stilted.  In contrast, Alan from Belfast thinks that Elliott is getting more assured.  Perhaps both are fair comment. In terms of content there are positives and negatives in the text.  To allay critics who accuse Elliott of being a ’dinosaur’, he makes strenuous efforts to define his unionism in positive terms.  It is grounded in ’pluralism and an equality of citizenship and opportunity’, the UUP leader claims.  F

Unfortunately I'll not be in Belfast to cover the Ulster Unionist conference this year.  The party meets at the Ramada Hotel, with Tom Elliott delivering his first key note speech as leader.   It's fair to say that he needs to produce something fairly startling in order to truly grasp the voting public's imagination in advance of next year's elections.   In the pre-conference broadcast, the UUP introduces some of its Assembly candidates, including 'young guns' like Rodney McCune, Jo-Anne Dobson and Lesley Macaulay.  It's by no means a bad effort.

Tom Elliott has freshened up the UUP team at Stormont.  John McCallister is promoted to deputy leader, which will be interpreted as an olive branch to the party’s liberal wing.  He replaces Danny Kennedy, who takes Sir Reg Empey’s portfolio as Minister for Employment and Learning.  The rest of the changes can be viewed here . Although McCallister’s elevation might soothe fears that supporters of Basil McCrea will be ostracised under the new leadership, Elliott has simultaneously filled an executive post with one of his key allies.  Kennedy is an amiable politician, but his performances are often less than stellar. In the aftermath of Lord Browne’s recommendations into university funding and the Northern Ireland specific Stuart Review, the new minister’s in-tray is already full to overflowing.  He faces some exceptionally difficult and potentially unpopular decisions in his first year in office. John McCallister may be the shrewder of the two appointments.  Another liberal figure,

It’s difficult to know what to make of Eamonn Mallie’s latest ‘exclusive’ at Slugger. It’s hardly a secret that although Tom Elliott’s leadership win was popular among the UUP’s elderly and rural grassroots, some moderate activists were dismayed. Rumours that disillusioned members would organise were inevitable and murmurs about a ’2010 Group’, prepared to protect some of the more inclusive aspects of UUP policy, actually pre-date the Elliott vs. McCrea contest. The notion that ’national politics’ or ’pan UK unionism’ are ideas worth advocating was not going to disappear due to one disappointing and mismanaged election. Mallie says that the group has met and even quotes a source, but I can’t help feeling that he has ’broken’ a story long before its gestation period is up.  Metaphorically we have a few conjoined cells, rather than anything which the general public might recognise as a baby. The fact that there are rumblings within the UUP, that something is up, is hardly an i

In the Belfast Telegraph on Wednesday, and on this blog yesterday, I suggested that Tom Elliott must find a role for the younger generation of UUP activists who backed Basil McCrea.  Their energies, I hinted, would find another outlet, if they weren’t harnessed in the party’s interests. Prominent among this group is Paula Bradshaw, widely acknowledged as a ‘rising star’, who performed creditably for UCUNF (given the circumstances) in South Belfast.  She is considering her political future after being denied the opportunity to run for the Assembly elections. One selection meeting doesn’t constitute a ‘night of the long knives’, but it will be interesting to see whether this pattern is repeated elsewhere.  Harry Hamilton, one of the more exciting prospects unearthed by UCUNF, has already ‘bitten the dust’ in Upper Bann. It’s early days, but after its choice of a ’grey man’ as leader, will the UUP throw away the chance to brighten up its candidate list for the Assembly elections?

I'll add a link to the full article if and when it eventually appears on the Belfast Telegraph website, but yesterday I evaluated Tom Elliott's chances of steadying the 'good ship UUP', in the newspaper. When UUP members elected a new party leader at Belfast’s Waterfront Hall last week, they chose time-honoured Ulster values over the pluralist sensibilities and media savvy of modern politics.  Tom Elliott may be younger than his opponent Basil McCrea, but the delegates, overwhelmingly elderly and male, saw a man in their own image nonetheless.  Elliott is a genial Fermanagh farmer of Orange stock, who represents a return to some old fashioned certainties for the UUP.  All the airy talk of normalising politics and building pan-UK unionism, which preceded the last election, is now at an end.  UCUNF, the new leader says, is dead, deceased, an ex electoral pact.   Rather than develop a ‘big idea’ to replace it, Elliott intends first to shore up the UUP’s existing support,

In this morning's Irish News I review the UUP leadership campaign and examine the repercussions of Tom Elliott's win.  I conclude by examining his attitude to 'unionist unity': That leaves the tired old mantra of ’unionist unity’.   Although the Fermanagh MLA rejected it during the campaign, his coy definition covered only the formation of a single unionist party.  That won‘t happen, but there are other options, short of merger with other parties, which are equally unpalatable to liberal Ulster Unionists.   There is ample evidence, for example, that a drive to agree Assembly election candidates with the DUP is already underway, in Belfast at least.  Elliott’s predecessor, Sir Reg Empey, endorsed meetings between the two parties, aimed at maximising unionist representation in the city. That might offer the type of ’cooperation’ the new leader wants to see with fellow unionists, but McCrea and others are likely to regard it as counterproductive and divisive.  If the pro

Well it appears that the UUP membership has descended, in all its decrepitude, on the Waterfront Hall and done the fateful deed.  All the excitement of UCUNF, pan-UK unionism, normalising politics seems a long time ago and a long way away now.  The Ulster Unionists are back to the dreary steeples and Tom Elliott is their new party leader. What now?  Will Elliott stick to his promise to reject 'unionist unity' or does his careful definition mean that we're in for the whole depressing charade of agreed candidates, shady back-room deals and a hand in glove relationship with the DUP?  Will he really try to attract pro-Union voters from across the communities in Northern Ireland, or will it be back to the Orange Order and the 'unionist people'? It's worth remembering that David Trimble was considered the hardline candidate when he was elected leader in 1995, defeating John Taylor.  But the trajectory of his campaign was very different, as were the talents he broug

“When I think - I’m a genius, when I write - I’m a distinguished man of letters, when I speak - I’m a fool”, a quote - heavily paraphrased - which is attributed to the Russian émigré writer, Vladimir Nabakov. I’m sure most of us understand the sentiment.   I certainly do (setting aside the ‘distinguished man of letters’ part). It’s easy to think of stonking, relevant, insurmountable truisms in private.  It’s a little harder to put them down on paper accurately and concisely.  But it is hardest by far to compose an argument on the hoof and articulate it clearly, under pressure and under the glare of publicity. That’s why the ability to do so is a rare and sought after talent.  It’s also why, contrary to popular belief, not everyone has it in them to become a front line politician. The people doing well in politics, the party leaders for instance, are professionals operating at the top of their game.  Like them or loathe them, their communication skills set them apart.  In the mo

O ver the past few days persistent rumours had surfaced that the UUP leadership election might be subject to a court injunction, possibly instigated by a supporter of Basil McCrea.   Anxiety had been increasing over the issue of membership lists and in particular votes that were to be granted to new members, admitted to the party during an 'amnesty' in August.   An emergency executive meeting had been planned to discuss the issue this Saturday, with the very real possibility of a postponement of next Wednesday's leadership election.  The fall-out for the party and its reputation would have been serious.   It's now emerged that the threat of legal action has been withdrawn and the UUP's executive will no longer meet this Saturday.  So we must assume that the leadership election will proceed next week, as planned.  That's good news for the party, if the confusion around membership has genuinely been settled to everyone's satisfaction.   

Article now online . In today's Belfast Telegraph I look at the fight to become UUP leader and argue that the party needs a battle based on policies, rather than personalities. This is .... a critical leadership contest for the UUP, but it had been strangely sedate, until the contenders clashed publicly over the weekend.  Their disagreement arose over attitudes to the GAA and homosexuality, with McCrea accusing Elliott of intolerance.  It was an acrimonious spat which illustrates real differences in approach between the two men.     Elliott may position himself as a consensus candidate, building a wide coalition of supporters from across the UUP.  Ultimately, however, the Fermanagh South Tyrone MLA best represents the more traditional wing of the party and its values.   Elliott claims backing from liberal figures, emphasising that he will not countenance a full merger with the DUP, but he is known to be broadly sympathetic to the concept of ‘unionist unity‘ and he has made sc

Compare the two leadership elections taking place in the UK at the moment (we‘ll ignore UKIP for the purposes of this discussion).  One includes open hustings, television debates and robust exchanges on policy and philosophy, the other takes place behind closed doors and there are groans of disapproval and panic whenever a public discussion threatens to break out. I understand that selecting a leader is ultimately an internal party matter, but the UUP should learn some lessons from the Labour leadership battle, taking place across the UK.  In a modern political party it is not sufficient to say, ’it’s our business, we’ll conduct this behind closed doors’.  Even a leadership election is a chance to interact with the public and canvass its views. There is, of course, a valid argument which holds that dirty laundry shouldn’t be washed in public.  When a party takes part in the democratic process, however, its 'dirty laundry' is unavoidably the public’s business.  A closed proc

After this morning’s ‘teething problem’ I will attempt to be more accurate in my account of Basil McCrea’s leadership ‘launch’.  The Merchant Hotel was the venue, chosen because it represents ‘what can be done’ when a local company devotes itself to high standards and ‘excellent training‘. Unsurprisingly business was indeed a major preoccupation of McCrea’s address.  He talked surprisingly frankly about his own experiences, setting up an ill-fated hi tech company in Northern Ireland.  The Lagan Valley MLA clearly views himself as a candidate for risk takers, dedicated to removing ’the dead hand of the civil service’ from the country’s entrepreneurs. As yet I have only a hardcopy of the speech, but I will publish it in its entirety, as soon as it reaches my inbox.  Its most striking feature was the five pledges which McCrea unveiled, which will answer charges that there is no concrete policy behind his campaign. The first, which I misreported earlier, actually promises that, shou

What’s going on with the coalition behind Tom Elliott’s leadership bid? The Fermanagh South Tyrone MLA has poured cold water on rumours of merger with the DUP and kept his options open on the Conservative link.  Yet Ulster Unionist Chief Whip, and Elliott supporter, Fred Cobain, couldn’t resist attacking the Tories, suggesting that the UUP would be forced to make an alternative electoral pact with Peter Robinson and his party. Meanwhile rumours persist that discussions with the DUP about 'unionist unity', at senior levels, are ongoing. The contradictions don’t end there.  An intriguing little tussle is tucked away in the comments zone of an otherwise innocuous post on Mike Nesbitt’s blog. Nesbitt, the leading moderate in Elliott’s team, congratulates the Down GAA team on their success in the All Ireland Gaelic Football championship.  Reasonably enough a reader asks how his generous sentiments sit with support for a leadership candidate who reassured UUP members that he

With the much touted 'third man' failing to emerge in the UUP leadership contest, it now appears that the line-up will be Elliott vs. McCrea.  In the Belfast Telegraph Alex Kane penned a gloomy piece  which suggests that neither candidate is capable of holding together the Ulster Unionist 'coalition'.   It is true that the party's prognosis is grim, whoever takes charge.  Sir Reg Empey has to take responsibility for UCUNF's failure, but at least he made a serious attempt to carve out a new role for the UUP in unionist politics.  Neither candidate, so far, has articulated anywhere near so radical a plan for the party's future. If, however, the leader is to be either Basil McCrea or Tom Elliott, only McCrea can offer anything which comes close to a prospectus for change.  Elliott has styled himself as the consensus candidate, but he cannot hide the fact that he represents the more traditional wing of the party and its values. Of course there is no guarante

In Saturday's Belfast Telegraph (not online) I looked at the challenge facing a new UUP leader and called for a genuine battle of ideas in the leadership contest. The UUP needs a fresh start. They say that an addict has to reach rock bottom before he can mend his ways.  Has the UUP reached just such a political moment, after UCUNF‘s capitulation at the Westminster election? Without an MP for the first time in its history, the party has promised to examine its failure thoroughly and make itself relevant again. This process of reinvention will involve three strands.  Firstly, the UUP will complete the early selection of candidates for next year‘s Assembly elections.  Secondly, it will choose a new leader to take over in the Autumn.  Thirdly, throughout the summer, the party will review what went wrong in May. Although candidate selection and self-scrutiny are critical to any resurgence, the leadership battle will determine the UUP’s chances of success.  A new leader must s