Three Thousand Versts of Loneliness

Was the Oldham East by-election result a particularly bad one for the Lib Dems?  Labour held the seat  comfortably , increasing its majority from a perilously slender 103 to a relatively healthy 3,558. On one hand Labour’s vote actually increased after the ignominy of its candidate, Phil Woolas, being turfed out of Parliament and suspended from the party. On the other hand, the Liberal Democrat vote fell by just under 3,000 against the backdrop of a turnout which had collapsed from 61.2% in May to 48% this time round.  In fact the Lib Dem share of the vote is actually very slightly up.  It is the Conservative share which has taken a serious hit. Given the controversy which attended Nick Clegg’s elevation to deputy prime minister, it could be argued that his party's total isn't too bad.  After all, the government traditionally gets a tough time at by-elections.  The Lib Dems were last night trotting out the statistic that a governing party has not gai...

Danny Kruger’s little book ’On Fraternity’ was an attempt to define the Cameron credo.  It placed the ’New Conservative’ blend of social responsibility and decentralisation within a wider Tory tradition.  Today the author has a spirited piece in the Financial Times, defending the coalition’s frenzied approach to instigating reform. All across government ministers are engaged in the type of ’grand schemes’ which Conservatives are generally thought to regard with scepticism.  Kruger’s argument is that their motivation is to restore rather than to build anew.  To a degree he probably has a point.  At Slugger Mick agrees that ’good old fashioned Tory values’ rather than ’neo-Whiggism’ is the order of the day. Vince Cable, whose candour with reporters posing as constituents has the government rocking this morning, prefers to use the term ’Maoist’.  That’s hardly a recommendation, even taking into consideration Cable’s socialist past. Some Tory cabinet m...

During my younger days ‘the right to stand’ at football matches was a bit of an old chestnut.  I remember leading a debating team in English class defending terraces.  Hillsborough had changed football forever and clubs were steadily implementing the Taylor report, but many fans believed that ’safe standing’ areas could best maintain the atmosphere and traditions of the game, without compromising safety. It’s scary to think how many years later (something-teen), but football terraces are back in the news. The Independent reports that Liberal Democrat MP, Don Foster, has tabled a motion proposing that clubs, up to the top level, should be permitted to construct standing areas.  90% of the Football Supporters’ Federation is in favour, so there is a rare opportunity for Lib Dems to feel some love With this initiative. Over the years, I must admit, my passion for terraces has somewhat dimmed.  I rather like watching a match seated and, so long as the game is exci...

In May Britain’s political sands shifted dramatically and members of the three main parties can be forgiven for appearing a trifle unsteady as they attempt to navigate an unfamiliar landscape.  Conference season provides a platform for their anxieties and gives leaders, who have shaped this new environment, a chance to help their followers find their feet. Labour is engaged in a high profile contest to crown a leader, of course, and looks set to draw all the wrong lessons from its election defeat.  Next weekend the result will be announced and the party’s membership will be asked to galvanise around its chosen Miliband in a very public coronation. The Conservatives convene in early October and the atmosphere is likely to be less than celebratory, despite the party's return from a long spell in the political wilderness.  A growing band of Tories resent the dependence of their government on coalition partners and Lord Ashcroft owns the most high profile finger of blame...

In Saturday's Belfast Telegraph I examined the prospects of Cameron's government, successfully balancing the interests of Westminster, England and the devolved regions (no link yet available - I'm not sure Saturday's opinion pages actually reach the website). The prime minister has promised that his new government’s relationship with the devolved regions will be distinguished by ’respect’.  He envisages an era of cooperation and communication between London and the executives in Belfast, Cardiff and Edinburgh. ’Daveolution’ received a cautious but cordial hearing when Cameron toured the UK capitals.   However, the four First Ministers’ substantive response emerged at a meeting in Stormont last Monday.  There they discussed forming a common front against spending cuts imposed by Westminster and demanded a slice of London’s Olympic regeneration money.  Cameron is acutely aware that he will have to govern with sensitivity if he is to be considered a prime minister for...

So good sense has prevailed and David Cameron, finally, becomes Prime Minister . It has been a long wait to get Gordon Brown out of Downing Street. Yesterday Fraser Nelson caustically observed that special forces would be required to dislodge Brown from Number 10. That hasn't quite been necessary, Nick Clegg put the outgoing PM out of his misery. O'Neill has outlined the reasons that the putative 'traffic light' coalition, or 'coalition of losers', would have spelled disaster for the United Kingdom. The Conservatives certainly realised this, a growing chorus of voices in the Labour party, to be fair to them, pointed out the same thing and the Liberal Democrats have apparently come to the same opinion. Nick Clegg's party is in an extraordinary position. It has acquired political responsibility and leverage far beyond its mandate. But the Lib Dems moment in the sun could yet prove their undoing. Had the party gone into power with Labour and a coterie of...

With less than one week to go, David Cameron has given his party much needed momentum by winning the last leaders’ election debate. Most of the major pollsters agree that the Conservative leader was the clear victor, while one, Populous, put Cameron level pegging with Nick Clegg. Gordon Brown, fresh from his travails in Rochdale, trailed the two younger men in every poll. Seymour Major is sceptical , but Conservative supporters will be closely scrutinising tonight’s newscasts, and the Sunday papers, to discern whether Cameron will get a similar bounce when the polling companies survey voting intention. Although their accuracy is questionable, it would settle Tory nerves considerably if the party’s poll figures began to edge out of the mid thirties, towards forty per cent. And I believe that, as election day draws closer, support for the Liberal Democrats will soften, to the Conservatives’ advantage. In Northern Ireland we are accustomed to the distortion of opinion polls by a so-c...

Gordon Brown’s plan to introduce Alternative Vote is a cynical exercise. It is also foolhardy and it is likely to alter profoundly Britain’s constitutional landscape, despite its conception as a half-hearted sop to a public disillusioned with politics. There are three reasons why the prime minister is considering this type of electoral reform and none of them make it a good idea. First, he wishes to be seen to be doing something to address a so-called ’crisis of legitimacy’ which has afflicted politics since the expenses scandal. There is a flourishing perception that MPs are not sufficiently accountable to the people they represent and that that is the source of corruption at Westminster. Alternative Vote gives the appearance of accountability. After all, we get to make more than one mark on the ballot paper. Second, whatever the outcome of the forthcoming general election, Labour is destined for a period in opposition. First past the post is believed to work to the advantage ...

John Rentoul’s column in today’s Independent is worth reading. Its eye catching headline questions the Conservatives’ reputation as ‘the stupid party’, suggesting that Tories’ calm approach to electoral reform suggests a long-term mentality. In contrast, Labour’s 1980s enthusiasm for tweaking the voting system has been rekindled, just as the party prepares for another prolonged spell in opposition. Rentoul is implying that the government’s attitude to the issue is purely reactive. During the vast majority of its years in power the Labour party has been satisfied with an arrangement which worked in its favour. Now that defeat is imminent, and Liberal Democrats’ support is sought, Gordon Brown has thrown his weight behind a shift to Alternative Vote. In contrast, although the Conservative party requires a much greater share of the vote than Labour, in order to command a substantial majority, David Cameron proposes less fundamental changes. The Tories favour fewer MPs in the House ...

In the wake of the Observer’s Ipsos-Mori poll , which suggested that the general election could result in a hung parliament, Nick Clegg has indicated that, in that eventuality, his party might be prepared to enter into an arrangement with the Conservatives. On ‘The Andrew Marr Show’ the Liberal Democrat leader set out a position which it is difficult not to interpret as encouragement to the Tories. "Whichever party has the strongest mandate from the British people, it seems to me obvious in a democracy they have the first right to seek to try and govern, either on their own or with others.” On Conservative Home Jonathan Isaby suggests that Clegg would find it impossible to sell coalition with the Tories to grass roots Liberal Democrat supporters. However the modern Conservative party, with its emphasis on social justice, is relatively in tune with liberal sensibilities. Although, as Isaby observes, it is unlikely to accede to demands for proportional representation. Ultimate...

Vince Cable may have attracted acclaim for his musings on the economy, but I would suggest that constitutional issues are not his specialist subject. Addressing a fringe event, at his party’s annual conference, the Liberal Democrat Treasury Spokesman delivered doom laden remarks, predicting a ‘constitutional crisis’, should Conservatives win the next election, and speculating that David Cameron could preside over the demise of the Union. Yes indeed. The Tory apocalypse is imminent. Britain will first become a hermit state at the edge of the European Union, and then dissolve, because one centrist government takes the reins from another. We’ll return to Dr Cable’s conference remarks, as reported by the Press and Journal , a little later. But it’s worth noting that the source of the former Glasgow councillor’s anxiety was a recent trip to the Scottish Highlands. The ‘gathering storm’ of Scots’ independence is a notion, then, that Vincent conceived in tranquillity , relatively recen...

This afternoon a recalled Scottish parliament is due to discuss the decision of its justice secretary to release convicted Lockerbie bomber, Abdul Baset Ali al-Megrahi. It promises to be an uncomfortable session for the SNP administration, but newspaper suggestions that Alex Salmond’s minority regime could be toppled are guilty of overstatement . Although unionist parties in Scotland remain happy to make political capital from nationalist misgovernment, there is little genuine appetite to bring down the executive. The Conservatives have been most consistent in their opposition to Megrahi’s release. However justice spokesman, Bill Aitken MSP, has indicated that a vote of no confidence in Kenny MacAskill, whilst possible, would be ‘premature’. The Tories have something of a contradictory relationship with nationalists in Scotland, despite taking a strong line on the Union. On this issue, Labour’s response is even more problematic. The party’s Scottish leader, Iain Gray, has spoke...

ConHome carries results from the latest ICM Sunday Telegraph poll. Bizarrely both Labour and the Conservatives are down four points and the Liberal Democrats have climbed by six. Have either Nick Clegg or his party upped their performance in some way which I have not been able to discern or is this poll a rogue? Any suggestions to unravel this conundrum gratefully received.

All the unionist parties in Scotland have now crawled on board and passed the SNP minority government’s budget. Scottish Conservatives had already joined nationalists in support of the package’s first reading. Liberal Democrats and Labour MSPs have since extracted enough concessions to secure their backing, leaving only two greens opposing the budget in a subsequent division, following its initial one vote defeat. Each party has done exactly the same in this instance. Annabel Goldie’s Conservatives found Alex Salmond and his finance minister John Swinney immediately receptive to their preconditions. The Tories therefore voted with the government at the first time of asking. Labour and the Lib Dems had their concerns addressed only after inflicting a narrow defeat on the SNP. The truth is that no party believes that Scotland would benefit if they were to force an early election, or render unworkable the current administration at Holyrood. In the teeth of recession, with Labour ...

This is article is written for Our Kingdom and it can be found here . Lord Smith makes a handful of curious points pertaining to realignment of the Conservative and Ulster Unionist parties, currently being effected by David Cameron and Sir Reg Empey. The Liberal Democrat peer appears confused as to the nature of the Conservative and Unionist force which the two parties intend to create and inconsistent in his criticisms of Cameron’s unionism. Reconstituting links between Conservatives and Ulster Unionists will not, as Lord Smith contends, further polarise politics in Northern Ireland, still less aggravate increased dissident paramilitarism. If anything the alliance will exercise a moderating influence on unionist politics, shaping a secular, inclusive movement, propounding the values of the Union. The new force will not be about exclusion, or representing one community, it will be about making a case for Northern Ireland’s place in the United Kingdom which appeals to everyone in th...

Below my post on the Calman Commission's interim report, the Little Man highlights a Liberal Democrat response. It would be hilarious, if it weren’t for the fact the Lib Dems purport to be (nominally) a unionist party. “One senior Liberal told The Herald: "My heart sinks. How could they do this? The whole point of our view is fiscal autonomy. How can we have any faith in the rest of this exercise? Ruling this out runs against everything I believe in."” How could they do this? Simple. They took on board what you believe in and decided that, on balance, it is a stupid idea with the potential to damage Scotland’s place in the Union. Tavish Scott, the party’s leader in Scotland, also issued a statement calling for ‘a real home rule settlement’. The commission’s role is to deliver effective devolution to Scotland within the Union. It has a duty to consider detrimental effects which suggested changes might have upon the United Kingdom as a whole. With its cosy relation...

Nick Clegg’s stated desire to cut tax for low and middle earners and to finance these cuts by freeing his party from certain public spending commitments has met with a predictable response. Left wing commentators complain that the Liberal Democrat leader is jettisoning principle and flirting with Thatcherism, meanwhile right wing analysts believe that Clegg’s proposals are mere sophistry and would not deliver meaningful tax cuts at all. The Liberal Democrats are seeking to present themselves as a tax cutting party for two principal reasons. Firstly, the party is seeking to reposition itself in line with prevalent public opinion and move demonstrably away from Labour, a party which is perceived as statist, centralising and wasteful of public money. Clegg wishes to carry a convincing fight to Labour at the next General Election. Secondly, with the Conservative Party increasingly buoyant, Lib Dems must protect seats they currently hold, which may be threatened by a resurgent Tory ...

O’Neill has subjected the failures which led to Labour’s Glasgow East by election capitulation to rigorous scrutiny over on Unionist Lite. His thoughts on the inadequacy of the unionist response to Scots' nationalism are instructive. Labour’s caning at the hands of the SNP, and indeed the general trend which propelled the nationalist party into power at Holyrood, are indicative of disillusionment with the government, rather than a genuine desire for Scotland to become independent from the rest of the United Kingdom. However, the intricacies of motivation leading the Scottish electorate toward a nationalist party are increasingly irrelevant. That party are on a roll. They are increasingly popular, mainstream unionist parties are failing to capture the imagination of Scottish voters and without any need to specifically endorse the dissolution of the Union, it is being incrementally damaged and the cause of Scottish independence is being strengthened by default. The Conservativ...

A number of months ago Peter Munce provided a fairly succinct assessment of Lib Dem MP Lembit Opik over at Baronsville. I would tend to concur with Peter’s conclusion and add that I tend to the view that the member for Montgomeryshire is not nearly as entertaining as he seems to believe himself to be. And therefore there was little amusement derived from Opik’s Guardian article, pleading the case for his fiancé’s native Romania as a surrogate team for British supporters in this summer’s European Championships, to offset incredulity that this son of Estonian immigrants appears to believe that Romania was once part of the Soviet Union ! Please note Sir Kenneth Bloomfield!

With ominous predictability early reports suggest that United Russia have polled around 63% of the vote in yesterday’s Duma election. When eliminated parties votes are redistributed it is possible that the party will command a 2/3 constitutional majority in Russia’s parliament. The outcome of this closely managed election reinforces the dominance of the pro-Kremlin party. In 2003 they managed 37.6 % of the vote. The result will also furnish Putin with the “moral authority” he sought to pursue the continuation of his policies into the tenure of a new presidency. United Russia insists that the constitution will not be changed in order to allow Putin to seek a third term. Political parties must name a presidential election candidate by 23rd December. The exact nature of Putin’s intention to remain as “national leader” may become clearer after United Russia convene to select their chosen candidate on 17th December. Putin retains the option to lead United Russia in the Duma and to b...