Three Thousand Versts of Loneliness

Jeff Dudgeon kindly forwarded his statistical analysis of the recent poll. It's the first time I've examined the results in quite such minute detail and it's fascinating to see exactly how votes transferred as the count progressed. Distribution of Agnew and Parsley’s votes of 42,463 Alban Maginness SDLP 16,325 38% of total New total: 94,814 Jim Nicholson UCUNF 11,392 27% of total New total: 94,285 Diane Dodds DUP 2,914 7% of total New total: 91,260 Jim Allister TUV 4,284 10% of total total: 70,481 Eliminated Non- transferable votes from Alliance/Green: 44% went to Unionists, 38% to SDLP 7,548, 18% of total (No longer an option to transfer to de Brun or Parsley/Agnew) Clearly, as one might expect, the SDLP and UCUNF were the parties to which Alliance and Green voters were most inclined to transfer. The pro-European bias of Maginness' campaign may have given him the edge in this particular election. From anecdotal evidence I believe a substantial number of &

Britain’s newly elected MEPs will today return to working lives of relative obscurity (unless they are Daniel Hannan), to emerge again only after five years have elapsed, in order to seek your vote. Such is the anti-climactic character of elective European politics. It illustrates the nominal nature of voter participation in the EU and the profound disconnection between its citizens and the institutions which shape their lives. Northern Ireland, for its part, experienced a European election which was by turns both low key and acrimonious. With Sinn Féin’s share of the vote dropping by just 0.3% and the SDLP enjoying only a negligible increase, it was the battle for pro-Union votes which has raised most discussion. Before we wish our three MEPs Godspeed, and they slip dock and sail for Brussels, it is worth surveying how precisely, if at all, Euro 2009 has impacted our politics. Commanding most attention is the performance of Jim Allister, who defended his seat with spirit and reta

The second count has now been completed. The SDLP has edged ahead by just over 400 votes to lead the remaining contenders. The DUP is now lagging behind in fourth place. Jim Allister will be eliminated and the redistribution of his votes is crucial in establishing how the final results will look. If, as expected, his supporters do not transfer readily to Diane Dodds, then Jim Nicholson would be overwhelming favourite to claim the second spot. We will now see just how deep antipathy between Allister’s party and the DUP really runs. 2nd prefs: SDLP: 94814; UCUNF 94385; DUP: 91260. Update: MISSION ACCOMPLISHED! Jim Nicholson is the second MEP elected, passing quota for the Conservatives and Unionists. He has said a few victorious words by the side of Owen Paterson who also looks rather pleased (to say the least). There are now Conservative aligned MEPs returned for each part of the United Kingdom. That is pan-UK unionism in action!

The BBC coverage of the European election is underway and Jim Nicholson has arrived at the count with party leader Sir Reg Empey. Both men look quietly delighted. We are closing in on an announcement of first preference votes and by the News Letter’s estimation the Conservatives and Unionists are battling it out for second place with the DUP. Increasingly there is an expectation that Nicholson could beat Dodds into third. Exciting stuff . There is even a suggestion that Sinn Féin might have to wait for another count to confirm its candidate’s success. The extreme nationalist party could be just under a quota on the first time of asking. It is notoriously unreceptive to transfers, but would probably muster enough to get home comfortably. Update: Some provisional figures: F - 126,000, DUP - 88,000, UCUNF - 82,000, TUV - 66,000, SDLP - 78,000, All - 24,000, Greens - 18,000 Would make it likely that Jim would be first unionist elected.. Further update: Unconfirmed first preference

For this afternoon only live news from the count will appear to the right hand side of the page courtesy of Twitter and #euni . Watch this space, or rather watch that space.

I spent the weekend in Fermanagh, which led to a brief cessation of blogging. Nevertheless, I had intended to cobble together some preliminary thoughts on the European Election results, as they came in last night. Unfortunately my laptop had other ideas. So if anyone with technical expertise has any notion why a Dell Inspiron 1525 would be hanging irrecoverably after several minutes use, please do not be shy sharing your knowledge below. Diagnostics threw up something rather alarming about the Hard Disk, but I fail to see how the computer could boot at all if it had a profound hardware issue, rather than suffering some manner of software compatibility problem. I rather hope that it might be a hiccup due to Vista or Google Chrome, although the machine does remain within its warranty period at least. Setting aside that thrilling topic (computers are a tool, not an end in themselves) the implosion of Labour at the polls continued in Europe, after woeful local election results in Eng

Attempting to draw conclusions as to a likely election result, from anecdotal evidence and vote tallying as the ballots are verified, constitutes a perilous business. The permutations of an STV poll are various and we will have to wait until the counts begin on Monday before speculation on possible winners is enlightened by even remotely reliable information. Nevertheless, conjecture is fun, so by all means get baselessly excited and explain below how, based on a box filled on Rathlin, which someone claims to have inspected, Agnew is a dead cert to top the poll. I see little point in analysing, or giving credence to, specific contradictory rumours emerging on Slugger and elsewhere. The DUP or the SDLP may be doing well in South Belfast. The Conservatives and Unionists are either holding up stoutly in rural areas, or their vote is disintegrating across the board. A Jim might be cleaning up in Lagan Valley, but accounts as to which one is gleefully hoovering first preferences diffe

Four ministerial resignations, including the Home Secretary, a back bench plot to unseat the Prime Minister from his leadership of the Labour party, rumours that an impending cabinet reshuffle will precipitate bitter recriminations rather than freshen and revitalise Gordon Brown’s team, predictions that the party could be beaten into fourth place in local and European elections, being held today. A new and strident challenger has emerged to contest the title of ‘worst week’ in the history of the disintegrating Labour government. There is a strong feeling that, for Brown at least, next week has the potential to be even worse. Even loyal Brownites, who have found that they are not immune from their leader’s briefing operation, are reportedly starting to feel restive. There is speculation that Alistair Darling will refuse to be shuffled from the Treasury into another cabinet post, for instance. It is becoming increasingly clear that the ‘big clunking fist’ which comprises Brown’s fac

If the readers of ‘Three Thousand Versts’ are suffering a little election fatigue, believe me, I am not immune from its symptoms either. I admit that I am looking forward to having time to turn my attention towards various other topics. Dmitry Medvedev’s ‘history commission’ is one subject which I had intended to examine, but somehow I haven’t yet managed to galvanise myself sufficiently to write anything about it. Perhaps I might manage some thoughts on Gordon Brown and his creaking leadership of the Labour party a little later. But the European election is undoubtedly an important event for the nascent Conservatives and Unionists force, and as a strong proponent of national politics for Northern Ireland, this blog has naturally become rather preoccupied with the poll. To be entirely honest, if I were to say that I thought Jim Nicholson makes an ideal figurehead to sell to the electorate an exciting new future for Northern Ireland’s politics, I would be lying. The Conservatives

Yesterday saw two DUP defections to the pan UK electoral force. Today sees another. I wonder will the Conservatives and Unionists have saved a spectacular to entice prospective voters tomorrow? On this occasion Jim Kirkpatrick, Belfast City Councillor and twice the city’s High Sheriff, has rejoined the Ulster Unionist party. It appears that Mr Kirkpatrick has decided that pursuing unionism on a pan-UK model will deliver the economic policies which Northern Ireland needs to succeed. "I had a long conversation with Peter Robinson a couple of weeks ago about the economic problems facing Northern Ireland. I came away with the distinct impression that he neither cares about nor understands the nature and scale of the problems facing the manufacturing industry and small businesses across Northern Ireland. We are at the beginning of an economic down turn where recovery in the manufacturing sector is doubtful since several countries in Europe, with lower wage levels, are better able t

Last night’s Politics Show on BBC1 constituted a depressing spectacle, for anyone interested in Northern Ireland and its politics. In a debate featuring all seven European election candidates, the pertinent issues were all but forgotten, as the event degenerated into an embarrassing bun-fight between the TUV incumbent and his DUP rival. Between Allister’s snarling drone and Dodds’ shrill yap, the other contenders were barely heard, and when they were, poor chairmanship from Jim Fitzpatrick ensured that soundbites predominated and little policy was debated. Although last week’s Question Time did not deliver a good examination of European issues either, this chaotic affair, filmed at Queen’s University Belfast, was an amateurish piece of programme making which served only to demonstrate the paucity of talent available to the Northern Ireland electorate. On Slugger O’Toole Pete Baker has posted the debate’s apogee , a buttock clenching moment when Diane Dodds carried on with an irrele

On Monday morning the Conservatives and Unionists European manifesto was launched. Based on the national Conservative party manifesto, it outlined a vision of the United Kingdom’s place within a cooperative, outward looking European Union, based on common values and a common market. I observed that in standing on a coherent, relevant platform, based on careful consideration of Britain’s relationship with European institutions, Jim Nicholson was putting faith in the Northern Ireland electorate’s political maturity. The document offered a glimpse of what politics here could become. Today the DUP has released its manifesto (PDF). Predictably it relies upon the Northern Ireland electorate’s political credulity. There’s an awful lot of revisionist post 1998 history. There’s the usual carping about ‘unionism topping the poll’. There are four pages about the devolution of policing and justice! And just when you'd given up hope, the first mention of European politics comes on page

I spent a chunk of this Bank Holiday Monday morning at the Waterfront Hall, where former Conservative leader, and current shadow foreign secretary, William Hague, became the latest high profile Tory to speak in support of Jim Nicholson, the Conservatives and Unionists European election candidate. Launching the force’s Northern Ireland manifesto, David Cameron’s ‘deputy in all but name’, gave a polished and persuasive synopsis of the document and branded the current Labour government the ‘worst in recent history‘. I offered some initial thoughts on the manifesto yesterday evening, and provided a summary of the main Conservative version, which forms its basis, a week ago. O’Neill provides a little more detail and reaction on ‘Unionist Lite’. A PDF version is now available on the ‘Vote for Change’ website. Although the Conservatives and Unionists arrangement is perfectly calibrated to offer Northern Irish voters something new in European politics, the pact is built for Westminster

The Conservatives and Unionists will launch their European election manifesto for Northern Ireland at the Waterfront Hall tomorrow morning. It will offer a local slant on the main Conservative party manifesto for Europe and has as its basis the same pledges and commitment s which prospective Conservative MEPs signed, in the presence of their party leader, last Monday in Lancashire. The ’Vote for Change’ theme is reflected in the Conservatives’ and Unionists’ view of the European Union, which is considered, “too inflexible; too bureaucratic; too out of touch with the spirit of the age“. “The Conservatives and Unionists offer a modern vision for Europe - one that is firmly in tune with the instincts of the British people.” The party is committed to pursuing a Union which has a single market of independent but cooperating nation states at its heart. It rejects the federal model favoured by France and Germany, which it believes remains entrenched within the provisions of the Lisbon Trea

In a story yesterday, detailing the launch of the Conservative election manifesto, I rather lazily gave way to the assumption that there might be some truth to rumours that a UDA ‘brigadier’ had erected Jim Nicholson posters in North Belfast. In the absence of any denial from the UUP, and appreciating the tangled situation which exists on the ground in many of these areas (I live in one), I suspected that local laziness or thoughtlessness might have made such a scenario possible. It was a hasty judgment to reach and, I suspect, quite probably an erroneous one. It is my understanding that, contrary to claims on Slugger O’Toole, the Sunday World’s story was not confirmed by a photograph. Indeed it is based on the supposed testimony of one witness, an unnamed pastor. A pastor in North Belfast who clearly believed he could be identified as the source has contacted the Sunday World to deny any involvement in the story. It just goes to demonstrate that these type of smear stories, which

This article from Shadow Northern Ireland Secretary, Owen Paterson MP, appeared in the Irish News on 7 May 2009. I’m afraid that I missed it at the time. A reader has kindly forwarded the text and I believe that it is worth reproducing in full. Particularly given that the Irish News’ online content is subscription only and I’m sure other readers won’t have encountered this very fine synopsis of what the Conservatives and Ulster Unionists wish to achieve with their electoral pact. Paterson has, from the beginning, been a strong proponent of the Conservatives and Unionists idea. He has driven forward the project from the Tory perspective and this piece lays out concrete, practical benefits which the alliance wishes to offer voters. It is a lesson in how the arguments should be laid out, to appeal to voters across the community. We need to hear more of this and less of the negative stories which have undermined UCUNF over the last week. Irish News article- 7th May 2009 In recen

David Cameron today launched the Tories’ European election manifesto. Conservative and Unionist candidate, Jim Nicholson, attended the event, in Rossendale Lancashire. After a turbulent week for his campaign, culminating with tabloid revelations that a UDA ‘brigadier’ may have been involved in erecting UCUNF election posters in North Belfast, Nicholson will be delighted to concentrate, for a day at least, on the message of change in Europe, which he is charged with communicating to voters in Northern Ireland. Although neither Nicholson, nor any other senior Ulster Unionist, bears responsibility for a baleful grassroots error, the Sunday World story carried an unfortunate echo of ‘ancestral voices’ characterising a brand of unionism which the new force is keen to repudiate. Unfortunately the influence of paramilitaries is pervasive in many working class areas of Belfast. That is not to offer an excuse for the oversight, but goes someway to explain that it is sometimes not easy to d

Jim Nicholson MEP’s Euro 2009 Party Election Broadcast is due to be screened tonight, at 6.55pm, on BBC 1. It will be available to view, from the same time, on the ‘Vote for Change’ campaign website. During the film, David Cameron will back Nicholson’s candidature. His endorsement will be highly significant. The future prime minister of the United Kingdom is publicly throwing his weight behind a pro-Union election candidate in Northern Ireland. Clearly this represents a departure for a mainland political party and a major advance for unionism in the UK. The next British government will not be neutral on the constitutional question. Whilst it will respect the aspirations of nationalists and will uphold the right of the people of Northern Ireland to determine its constitutional future, it will argue, strenuously, that it is in the province’s interests to remain part of the United Kingdom. And, just as importantly, that it is in the United Kingdom’s interests to remain intact and

Shadow Minister for Europe, Mark Francois MP, joined Jim Nicholson MEP to campaign in the South Antrim, Upper Bann and Lagan Valley constituencies. It's worth printing in full Francois' observations. "Jim Nicholson will be part of a strong group of Conservative MEPs in the next European Parliament, standing up for the interests of the United Kingdom. No lone voice, he will be part of a strong team committed to delivering for Northern Ireland and the entire UK. "If the Conservatives are successful in winning the next general election, Jim Nicholson and his colleagues in the Conservative grouping in the European Parliament will be able to work with that new government to reform Europe, to halt the federalist agenda, to keep Sterling and to ensure that British businesses and workers are not dictated to by the Working Time Directive. Others may talk about doing this - only Jim Nicholson and his fellow Conservative MEPs with a Conservative Government in Westminster can