Three Thousand Versts of Loneliness

In part 2 of his post, guest blogger Dr Phil Larkin reflects upon the prospects of Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party and he predicts that the SNP has reached the peak of its powers. THE 2015 ELECTION ONE YEAR ON: REFLECTIONS AND PREDICTIONS (Part 2) Corbyn and the Labour Party Jeremy Corbyn was made Labour Party leader in September 2015, after being nominated for the ballot by a number of Labour MPs, some of whom, like Sadiq Khan and Margaret Beckett, are kicking themselves for being so foolish. Corbyn was elected leader by over 60 per cent of the Labour Party membership, despite the reality that his views run counter to the vast majority of the Parliamentary Party on most key issues. During Ed Miliband’s time the rules on Party leadership were altered to give the membership a bigger say in the decision, and it was possible to join up online prior to the election for a fee of £3. I suspect that many who voted for him were younger members of the population with little or

" Edinburgh IMG 3994 (14732734838) " by Reading Tom from Reading, UK - IMG_3994 . Licensed under CC BY 2.0 via Wikimedia Commons . In the final part of his survey of the SNP, Dr Phil Larkin looks at the party's future and concludes by emphasising the importance of Scotland to the rest of the UK.   The SNP’s Future? As any military manual will tell you, a salient, or bulge, into enemy territory is a dangerous position for an army to be in, since it can be attacked from three sides. The 56 seats won by the SNP in May constitute just such a salient. Had they won, say, 30-40 seats, it might actually have been better for them, since they could continue to enthuse their core support with the cry that there “is still more work to be done.” A victory of such a resounding nature means that there is only one direction for the SNP’s electoral fortunes to head, namely, southwards. The present UK Government, with its small but workable majority, is not beholden in any way to

Over at Nationalist Mythbusting sm753 is in great form dissecting Alex Salmond's claims to 'civic nationalism'.  After donating water during the recent crisis, Salmond explained that the Scottish executive was helping out because 'they' (that is us - the Northern Irish) are "blood of our blood, bone of our bone". There are two ways of looking at this statement.  sm753 is interested in the unrepentant 'blood and soil' ethnic nationalism which informs Salmond's choice of words.  At Unionist Lite O'Neill notes that the inter-connectedness of the United Kingdom's peoples is something which nationalists more often attempt to ignore.  The emphasis is usually on difference, rather than similarity. Either way, it would be churlish not to acknowledge an act of generosity on the part of the authorities in Edinburgh.  The supplies were no doubt badly needed. Sadly NIW, out of cack-handed incompetence , did not avail of all the help to whi

The Scottish Executive’s flirtation with radical Islam has been highlighted before, on this blog , and elsewhere .  Now the Scottish Islamic Foundation, which has claimed a full third of ’equality’ funding in Scotland, since 2007, has been named as an 'entry level' Islamist group by anti-extremist think tank, the Quilliam Foundation. The group was set up by Osama Saeed, who stood as an SNP candidate in the last election.  Its spokespersons have advocated introducing Sharia law to Scottish jurisprudence and state funded Islamic schools. The Scotsman reports that the Quilliam Foundation, a brain child of former radical Islamists, recommends that ’local and central government should be wary of engagement with these groups’, citing a risk of ’empowering the ideology behind terrorism’.

There won't be too many posts on the blog this week, but I will briefly draw your attention to another Belfast Telegraph article , which considers the Megrahi mess.  The edit lost a little of the thrust of the original, so the text below is a little different to the published column.   I consider the chain of events which set in train the bomber's release and conclude: [It's} Hardly surprising that after the release took place last August, opponents alleged Labour was secretly delighted.  The party had secured its preferred outcome without getting its hands dirty.  A nationalist Scottish Executive, flexing its muscles and styling itself a ’government’, was more than happy to boast that it had reached its decision independently. When Kenny MacAskill appeared in front of the world’s press to deliver a crowing speech about the unique ’humanity of the Scottish people’, he didn’t expect that his ruling would cause the SNP to crash in the polls.  Nor could he anticipate that a f

Unionist Lite investigates the think tank Policy Exchange’s latest report.  ‘The Devolution Distraction’  (PDF), suggests that Scotland’s ‘constitutional obsession’ has led to bad government.  Its author, Tom Miers, finds that an increase in funding has not been matched by the achievements of the Scottish Executive. The source of the failure is, Miers believes, a preoccupation with constitutional reform, to the exclusion of what we in Northern Ireland are fond of describing as ‘bread and butter issues’. “Only on constitutional matters is there any drive for change.  Yet the problems Scotland faces are political in nature, not constitutional. If the huge increase in ‘accountability’ that took place with devolution in 1999 did not improve matters, there is no reason to suppose that further constitutional change will help.” Holyrood, it is argued, already has the powers and the autonomy to get on with making Scotland a success.  The contention that it is hampered by Westminster is sim

Speaking before the Conservatives' Scottish conference David Cameron has laid into the SNP, claiming that Alex Salmond lives in a 'perpetual episode of Braveheart'. The Tory leader also affirmed his determination to avoid boosting the argument for independence. "If Alex Salmond thinks a Conservative government is going to get in and run the United Kingdom in such a way that makes the argument for independence stronger he has another thing coming." All good stuff, although I hope that Cameron really has the measure of Scotland's First Minister and is mindful of the accusations of anti-Scottishness which each Conservative decision, however innocuous, is bound to provoke. The cultural kitsch so beloved of Salmond is surprisingly popular in some circles. As I remarked below : [In Scotland] nationalism has attempted to weld itself on to a vibrant cultural patriotism. Its response to the instrumental arguments of unionism is that they are unpatriotic, they ‘do do

The Scotsman has a story which rather neatly distils the economic argument against Scottish independence and the SNP’s flimsy response. Confronted with hard figures which demonstrate that Scotland does rather well out of its membership of the United Kingdom the nationalists bluster about “anti Scottish propaganda” and take up their mantra of “Scotland’s oil”. On this occasion the Scottish Office has released figures which appear to demonstrate the Scotland has gained a £76 billion ‘devolution dividend’. The SNP is always quick to attempt to change the frame of reference to patriotism. If you believe the government’s figures then you are ‘doing Scotland down’, hence you are not a good Scotsman. It’s the type of reductionist, identity based politics we’re accustomed to in Northern Ireland. It also relies on a sense of entitlement to dwindling oilfields which the SNP is fond of claiming for Scotland. Of course, in the event of independence, the result would be a great deal more compli

I’m afraid that I’m a day or two late on this, but it’s worth reading Alan Cochrane’s coruscating assessment of the SNP’s white paper on a separatist referendum. Alex Salmond hopes to introduce a confusing poll offering several options, one of which would be his favoured option of full independence. Neither of the three unionist parties is prepared to entertain any type of referendum in the foreseeable future, although Cochrane believes that the Lib Dems are most likely to be pliable. I am entirely in agreement with the article’s thrust. It is a disingenuous document, with important omissions and its timing is spectacularly selfish. However, I don’t believe that unionists should dismiss a referendum out of hand. A poll, held as the economy begins to recover, could kill separatism stone dead for a generation. The key is ensuring that the question is clear, unambiguous and demands a definitive answer. 'Do you wish Scotland to remain within the United Kingdom?'. Yes or No

When unionist parties vote down Alex Salmond’s proposed independence referendum he hopes to encourage the idea that democracy is being denied. A new poll demonstrates that Scots might not be so receptive to this argument after all. According to You Gov, backing for independence has fallen to 29%, whilst support for the Union is up four points, to 57%. Anthony King set the question, in line with the SNP’s proposed ‘softly softly’ approach. Rather than seeking honestly the Scottish people’s assent to break up the United Kingdom, the party will propose a mealy mouthed formulation about ‘negotiating a settlement with Westminster‘. King observes that in rejecting this proposition, “most Scots regard the idea of a referendum on Scottish independence as an irrelevant bore and that, if any such referendum were held in the near future, it would be overwhelmingly defeated". Indeed only one in eight Scots named a referendum as one of the top two priorities on which Holyrood should conce

The by-election to replace Michael Martin will finally take place on November 12. The winner will barely have become accustomed to their new environment before they are back on the campaign trail. The BBC has a profile of each of the candidates - a rum lot to be perfectly honest - other than Ruth Davidson. She will do well to increase the Conservatives' vote. This is a rather grim part of Glasgow. Incidentally, Down and Out in Lenzie and Lossiemouth, whose penthouse flat is decidedly not in Martin's old constituency, highlights another 'betrayal' by the SNP.

Tom Gallagher is not by temperament or inclination a unionist. His book, ‘The Illusion of Freedom’ , questions the effectiveness of the SNP’s leadership of Scottish nationalism, but does not reject, explicitly, the legitimacy of the party’s aim of independence. The author is critical of the personality cult surrounding Alex Salmond, his party’s cronyism and clientelism, its confused economic policies, the Anglophobia associated with its chauvinist doctrines, but Gallagher treats as axiomatic the assumption that Scotland, as a nation, must enjoy a high degree of political self-expression in order to flourish. If he eventually rejects Salmond’s separatism, it is because he believes it leads to an inward looking, socially conservative, centralist state, not because he subscribes to integrationist unionism. ‘The Illusion of Freedom’ consists of two parts. The first charts a fairly brief history of Scotland, stretching from the Act of Union in 1707 until the Scottish Parliament’s reest

Efrafandays reports the SNP’s unconvincing reaction to the news that the Orange Order, in Scotland, will encourage its members to vote for anyone other than a nationalist, in the forthcoming general election. Party sources are suggesting that comments from Grand Master, Ian Wilson, represent an embarrassment for Labour (and presumably the other unionist parties), rather than a blow to the SNP. Alec observes that Salmond’s party is not without its own bedfellows known for an intransigent take on religion. The Scottish-Islamic Foundation is intricately linked to the SNP and has received a full third of all ‘equality’ funding since 2007. Its spokespersons have advocated the introduction of Sharia Law to Scottish jurisprudence and championed state funded Islamic schools, despite evidence that such institutions can exercise a radicalising influence. Whilst the SIF is entitled to pursue its chosen projects, the SNP’s patronage exemplifies its approach to sectional interests. Rather tha

Vince Cable may have attracted acclaim for his musings on the economy, but I would suggest that constitutional issues are not his specialist subject. Addressing a fringe event, at his party’s annual conference, the Liberal Democrat Treasury Spokesman delivered doom laden remarks, predicting a ‘constitutional crisis’, should Conservatives win the next election, and speculating that David Cameron could preside over the demise of the Union. Yes indeed. The Tory apocalypse is imminent. Britain will first become a hermit state at the edge of the European Union, and then dissolve, because one centrist government takes the reins from another. We’ll return to Dr Cable’s conference remarks, as reported by the Press and Journal , a little later. But it’s worth noting that the source of the former Glasgow councillor’s anxiety was a recent trip to the Scottish Highlands. The ‘gathering storm’ of Scots’ independence is a notion, then, that Vincent conceived in tranquillity , relatively recen

Scotland on Sunday reports that the Scottish Executive is considering extending road tax to cyclists. Bizarrely an 'Action Plan' commissioned by the SNP led administration, which aspires to ensure 10% of journeys in Scotland are made by bike, suggests that their owners should make an annual contribution to road maintenance. The Green Party, which operates a 'confidence and supply' alliance with nationalists in Scotland, and supports Salmond's separatist ambitions, has already expressed its dismay. Road tax is increasingly viewed as a means by which to encourage more environmentally friendly forms of travel. Scotland might be an exception, but in the rest of the UK agricultural vehicles are exempt from road tax, yet form a regular presence on public roads. I would suggest that they exact more wear and tear and exasperate other road users more frequently than cyclists.

I am eagerly awaiting the arrival of ‘The Illusion of Freedom’ , Tom Gallagher’s examination of the minority nationalist administration in Scotland, released later this month. Its author has written previously about links between the SNP and Islamist groups, particularly the Scottish Islamic Foundation, directed by Osama Saeed, a parliamentary candidate for Alex Salmond’s party in Glasgow Central. Picking up on an allusion to the SNP’s connection with radical Islam, below, Alec has pointed me in the direction of this excellent blogpost , which highlights upon some of the funding issues surrounding the SIF. Last month the organisation, which is intimately linked to the nationalist party, was forced to repay £128,000 of public money, granted to it by the Scottish Executive. Alec observes that the SIF, which was formed in 2008, managed to leapfrog pre-existing Muslim cultural and religious bodies in Scotland, in order to claim large injections of taxpayers’ cash. This despite its di

Vernon Bogdanor’s survey of ‘The New British Constitution’ observes that most Scots voted for devolution, not because of any profound dissatisfaction with Westminster’s sovereignty, but for largely instrumental reasons. Their calculation was that regional government might allow Scotland to flourish, economically and socially, with representation devoted exclusively to its affairs. It would be foolish not to acknowledge that, ten years later, Scots widely accept that the institutions at Holyrood have been successful in this regard. However, impetus towards wider devolved powers, or indeed eventual independence, is still essentially dependent on instrumental arguments. Although a minority mandate has allowed nationalists to form an executive at Holyrood, their emotional and separatist messages have not gained significant purchase. Instead, Alex Salmond has proved skilful at attuning nationalism’s tactics to voters’ instrumentalist concerns and pursuing his wider aim of independence

I do promise to leave the Megrahi – MacAskill affair alone for a while – soon – but a post from Liam Murray tickled my fancy. Apart from subjecting the defining characteristics of ‘compassion’ to closer scrutiny, Murray takes the SNP minister to task for asserting Scotland’s ‘moral superiority. “Up here we call it the ‘wha’s like us’ mentality” “You have to wonder what characteristics Mr MacAskill would ascribe to our English neighbours”, Murray ponders, “it’s probably best not to ask”.

This afternoon a recalled Scottish parliament is due to discuss the decision of its justice secretary to release convicted Lockerbie bomber, Abdul Baset Ali al-Megrahi. It promises to be an uncomfortable session for the SNP administration, but newspaper suggestions that Alex Salmond’s minority regime could be toppled are guilty of overstatement . Although unionist parties in Scotland remain happy to make political capital from nationalist misgovernment, there is little genuine appetite to bring down the executive. The Conservatives have been most consistent in their opposition to Megrahi’s release. However justice spokesman, Bill Aitken MSP, has indicated that a vote of no confidence in Kenny MacAskill, whilst possible, would be ‘premature’. The Tories have something of a contradictory relationship with nationalists in Scotland, despite taking a strong line on the Union. On this issue, Labour’s response is even more problematic. The party’s Scottish leader, Iain Gray, has spoke

The SNP used the Megrahi affair to indulge in some distasteful nationalist posturing. Where justice is reserved the events formed a cautionary tale of the possible effects of its devolution. But how do they reflect the workings of devolution, as it currently operates, and what do they tell us about possible political dynamics, as they might develop in the immediate future? What the case illustrates most strikingly is that a Westminster government can be powerless in the face of an internal policy decision which directly impacts upon its interests on the international stage. It has been alleged, as I intimate below, that the Scottish Justice Minister’s determination was convenient for the national government and consistent with its foreign policy objectives. It has even been suggested that pressure was brought to bear on the SNP administration, or that a deal was struck. It is a plausible point of view, derived by seductive reasoning, but it does not negate the hard fact that a re