Championship game prediction: Picking the Tar Heels

ON BASKETBALL

Making this pick was far from easy. It was akin to choosing between peppermint and coffee ice cream — I love 'em both.

But when it came down to it, the peppermint simply has more flair than the coffee. Both have valuable attributes, but the peppermint's are just a little more capable.

Ya dig?

Well if you don't, this is what your bumbling writer is getting at: As good as the Michigan State Spartans are and as good as they're playing, the North Carolina Tar Heels are simply a little bit (a hair or two) better — and they've shown that throughout the NCAA Tournament.

Basically, the Heels can go out and play a decent game — like they did Saturday against Villanova — and still win if the Spartans are mediocre (as the Wildcats were). MSU, on the other hand, has to play a good game to win Monday night. Anything less will result in a loss.

If UNC plays its best, forgetaboutit.

So write down this score for me, but make sure to note that I'm not entirely confident in it.

North Carolina 84, Michigan State 75.

How could it be different X's and O's wise?

Well, if the Spartans can slow down ACC player of the year Ty Lawson. I think that's possible, considering how well Travis Walton has defended recently. Against Connecticut, he helped hold stud guard A.J. Price to 5-of-20 shooting and a minimal impact on the game.

If Lawson isn't his typical dominant self, that affects all the Heels.

The Spartans could also gain an advantage through their bench play. In the win over the Huskies, Korie Lucious was a huge difference-maker with 11 points. Durrell Summers added 10 and Draymond Green had eight, and the bench outscored UConn's by a ridiculous 33-7 margin.

The Heels have athletic big man Ed Davis on their bench, and he provides them with a good defensive presence and some rebounds. But he's not a scorer. Outside of him, only Bobby Frasor occasionally scores off the Heels bench.

So another strong effort by the Spartans reserves could make a huge difference.

And finally, there's the homecourt advantage. Not too much should be made of it since this is the national title game. We know the Heels won't be fazed by the extremely pro-MSU crowd inside Ford Field.

But the fans will help the Spartans if they get down. Fans will rise to their feet in an attempt to exhilarate their Spartans, get them back in the game. That can help a team find that last ounce of energy, that last push, when the players need it.

So there are a lot of reasons to believe the Spartans might pull their third straight upset of a No. 1 seed Monday night and set off a wild celebration in a state that desperately needs it.

There are just a couple more trustworthy reasons, however, to count on the Heels fulfilling their only real goal of the season.

I mentioned Lawson who, you know, is pretty darn good. No one's stopped him yet in the tournament. Walton has one heck of a task ahead of him.

Then there's Tyler Hansbrough, who you can bet will make the most of his final college game in what's seemed like a career spanning centuries. He'll, most likely, have another quiet but efficient night.

But perhaps most importantly, the Heels have two reliable 3-point shooters and, most importantly, clutch performers outside of the attention-grabbing Lawson.

Wayne Ellington is playing the best basketball of his career by far, and if he's left open he'll knock down dagger-like 3s. No MSU outside shooter can be counted on as much as Ellington.

And then there's senior Danny Green, who has become Mr. Big Shot for the Heels. He struggled at the beginning of the postseason in the ACC tournament and first couple games of the Big Dance, but he's rediscovered his shooting stroke at the right time.

Against Villanova, Green's two huge 3s — sandwiched around a Lawson layup — kept the feisty 'Cats at bay when they had cut what appeared an insurmountable deficit down to five points early in the second half.

Green killed their spirit with two flicks of his right wrist.

I'm banking on him, and Ellington, pulling off similar acts against the Spartans.

And while MSU has all the pieces of a national-title team assembled, they don't fit as smoothly together as North Carolina's do right now. They haven't been together as long as the Heels main cogs have.

The Spartans, if they avoid early departures to the NBA, might go out and win the thing next year.

But since October, this has been North Carolina's year. This has been the Heels destiny.

They seem too sturdy to fall a game short of accomplishing their long-awaited main objective.

And that's why, after 38 games, they'll finally get to celebrate without having to worry about a next task on their seemingly never-ending journey to the top of the college hoops world.

Final Four underdogs can win thanks to the 3-pointer

ON BASKETBALL

Let's not kid ourselves. No one is surprised that UConn and North Carolina are in Detroit today for the Final Four.

That's what we were projecting back in October. And three weeks ago before the NCAA Tournament, although many of us (yep, this guy included) thought Memphis might spoil the Huskies' bid.

The other pair of teams left in the Big Dance, however, weren't exactly favorites to make it this far. Not Michigan State, which had flown under the radar all season after getting blown off the floor by the Tar Heels in early December in the same venue — Ford Field — in which they'll play Saturday.

The Spartans had to continuously silent doubters after that, game by game until they "upset" No. 1 seed Louisville last Sunday. Now, playing just 90 miles from East Lansing, they're underdogs once again.

But not as big underdogs as the Wildcats of Villanova, who have to take on the mighty Heels — the team almost given the title before the season even began. Who, outside of Philly, is picking the 'Cats to advance to their first title game since 1985?

Um, no one.

But let's not get ahead of ourselves in predicting a battle of the big boys Monday night in Motown. Yes, UNC and UConn are the better, more talented teams. They "should" win.

But they might not. I, for one, wouldn't be surprised one bit.

After all, there's a big equalizer for the pair of underdogs.

The 3-pointer.

Look at the Tar Heels' four losses to date. When they were shocked at home by Boston College, the Eagles made nine 3s. Wake Forest was a terrible outside shooting team, but it shot 6-for-14 from the perimeter.

The main reason Maryland came back from a huge second-half deficit to upset the Heels? The Terrapins made 13 of 30 from behind the arc. And Florida State was 8-of-20 from downtown in its ACC Tournament win (although UNC was without its best player, Ty Lawson).

The bottom line is this: If Villanova makes its outside shots, it can win this game.

A lot was made after the Heels' 72-60 win over Oklahoma last Sunday to win the South region about how much of an improved defensive team they are. And don't get me wrong — they are better on that end of the floor than they were in January, when the Demon Deacons' Jeff Teague penetrated at will against the Heels.

They're better at guarding the basket, especially with freshman Ed Davis playing a bigger role. I'll give them that.

But they're not any better at guarding the 3-point arc. The bottom line to take from last weekend is this: Oklahoma's guards didn't show up to play. They missed wide-open 3 after wide-open 3, bricking their first 15 from deep.

A few made 3s, and that could have been a different game.

Villanova might not have a Blake Griffin to garner defenders' attention, but it will get plenty of open looks. That's because the Wildcats have a pair of guards in Scottie Reynolds and Corey Fisher who can penetrate the lane and create open outside shots for teammates.

Now, the Wildcats will have to step up and make 3s.

If they make 10 or more, I think they'll win the game. I'm not kidding.

The same can be said for the Spartans, who have an even better chance of pulling the upset.

Their biggest weapon might not look like a 3-point shooter, however. No one would expect, from looking at 6-foot-10 Goran Suton, that he'd have a smooth stroke from the perimeter.

But that's exactly what he demonstrated in the Spartans' masterful domination of Louisville last Sunday. Against the Cardinals' 2-3 zone, Suton three times stepped outside the paint and swished 3s.

He got open looks because defenders were uncomfortable guarding him 20 feet away from the basket. Suton's 3s sparked Michigan State's game-clinching run in the second half.

A benefactor was Durrell Summers, who connected on back-to-back 3s during the spurt. He's not short himself, at 6-4, and elevates over his defenders to shoot. Another dangerous weapon for underdog Sparty.

If Michigan State does what it did against Louisville — when it shot 8-for-16 from 3-point range — it can beat the Huskies. If Suton pulls his defenders away from the basket and makes 3s, UConn will have its issues.

Of course, there's another factor: If the favorites make just as many 3s, they could take away that advantage.

But the underdogs, to me, play much better defense on the perimeter. Consider what the Wildcats did against Duke, a good 3-point shooting team. They forced the Blue Devils into 5-of-27 shooting from behind the arc. They rattled them.

Don't expect the Heels to get a whole bunch of open 3s.

The Spartans are quietly, possibly the best defensive team in the country. They've only given up 70-plus points once since mid-January. And they rebound well.

Those attributes, along with a handful of 3s, could land them in the national title game.

Where they could face Villanova, believe it or not.

Am I predicting two surprises? I wouldn't go that far.

But I wouldn't be shocked, not at all, if we see an upset or two tonight.

Thanks to the great equalizer, the 3-point shot.

Duke's balance, 3s down Carolina

ON COLLEGE BASKETBALL

Memo to North Carolina fans: Maybe if you stopped hating Greg Paulus so much, he'd stop playing so well.

Paulus, a former high school stud quarterback, has reveled in being at the center of things this season, and Wednesday night was no different. Duke's point guard lit up the Dean Smith Center for 18 points on 6-for-8 shooting from 3-point range. Thursday morning, sitting in a room full of UNC fans, everyone talked of how they absolutely can't stand Paulus.

But they could have used him on their team Wednesday. Most of Paulus' 3s were contested, but the 6-foot-1 guard has a quick release and was able to get his shot off over contesting defenders.

UNC didn't play terrible, it was just out-manned. Tyler Hansbrough could only do so much.

And that's why, at this point in the season, Duke is a slightly better team. The Blue Devils simply have more scoring options — and you never know who's going to pour in 20 on a particular night.

On Wednesday, it was everybody, as six Devils scored in double figures. Additionally, five Devils knocked down at least one 3-pointer.

How do you stop Duke's attack? You hope the Devils have a bad shooting night from behind the arc like they did in their lone loss to Pittsburgh. When Paulus made a 3 less than 20 seconds into the game, I got the feeling it was going to be a good shooting night for the Devils, which was bad news for the Tar Heels.

If you check out the box score, UNC made just two less field goals than Duke (30 to 28) and made three more free throws (19 to 16) — numbers that would equate to a one-point Duke win if the 3-point shot didn't exist.

The arc killed the Heels Wednesday night. While Duke made 13 of 29 long-range bombs, UNC managed to hit just three of 17.

I wasn't surprised. Not only do the Devils shoot the 3 well, they also defend it extremely well. In all eight of its ACC games, Duke has not allowed a team to make more than four 3s, and its opponents have shot a combined 28-of-101 (28 percent) from downtown.

Duke haters might call that luck, but the truth is that the Devils are willing to give up the occasional easy inside shot as long as they don't surrender the open 3. In college basketball, nothing swings momentum like a made 3-pointer — especially back-to-back 3s. Only once did the Heels have the momentum — when they ended the first half on an 8-0 run to pull within 42-39. But the momentum was gone in the second half, and Duke gradually built its lead en route to the 89-78 win.

While Hansbrough gave another workmanlike effort with 28 points and 18 rebounds, he didn't get the perimeter help he needed. Duke was all over UNC's top outside shooter, Wayne Ellington, forcing him into a miserable 3-for-14 shooting performance, including zero makes out of six 3-point attempts. Sixth man Danny Green was even more off, not scoring until he hit a late 3 and finishing 1-for-10 from the field.

Obviously, the Heels missed point guard Ty Lawson, whose ankle didn't feel great before the game, causing Roy Williams to tell him to sit out. The Heels weren't able to get out on the fast-break with Lawson sidelined, and Lawson has also improved his outside shot this season. Assuming a full recovery, Duke-Carolina Part II should be very intriguing come early March.

But what happened, happened. And I'm not even sure Lawson would have made a huge difference. The Devils' system is predicated on running, so I don't think UNC would have wanted to get into a track meet.

As it was, Duke thrived in the half-court because of its ability to shoot the 3. When Kyle Singler sets a pick out top for Paulus, it's almost impossible to guard. Here's why: If Singler's man doesn't hedge on Paulus, the point guard will quickly pull up for an open 3. If he does hedge, Singler is usually pops open for a 3 — and for a 6-8 guy, he can shoot it from outside.

Singler's and Paulus' 3s a minute apart late in the second half helped to keep Duke's lead at nine, and UNC didn't get much closer until the final minute when it was too late.

The good thing for the Heels is it's only early February. In retrospect, Wednesday's result won't matter come the big games in March. By then, Lawson will likely be healthy and the Heels will be an improved team on both ends of the floor.

The good thing for the Devils is they're on a roll right now and they're showing no signs of letting up. All season long, they've been doubted because of their lack of an inside presence. But will anyone remember that they were out-rebounded by 11 (49-38) Wednesday? Maybe Mike Krzyzewski and his staff in preparing them for future games, but nobody else.

The truth is that the Devils have the players to win a national title. Their leader, DeMarcus Nelson, had a poor game Wednesday, making a mere three of nine shots to score 13 points and playing just 23 foul-plagued minutes. If Hansbrough — easily UNC's most important player — had scored below his average or been in foul trouble, the Heels would have lost by a lot more than 11.

These teams are still very evenly matched, and there remains a chance Duke could stumble before the rematch March 8, giving UNC a chance to snare a share of the ACC title when the teams face off inside Cameron Indoor Stadium.

But for now, the national rankings have got it right: Duke is No. 2 and UNC is No. 3.

Williams' Tar Heels reminiscent of national title squad

ON COLLEGE BASKETBALL

He's doing it again.

Yep, North Carolina coach Roy Williams has apparently taken the rims off the Dean Dome baskets during recent practices.

That maneuver did not, however, help the Heels defensive effort against last-place Georgia Tech Wednesday night. UNC had to survive a potential game-winning missed shot by the Yellow Jackets for a thrilling 83-82 victory.

Good for television ratings. Probably not so good for Williams' long-term health.

Sure, UNC is 18-0 — a game better than those Patriots — and off to its best start since the 1983-84 season, but perfection hasn't been easy. Two of its three ACC wins have been heart-pounders — first, the Heels needed a last-second 3-pointer by Wayne Ellington to beat Clemson in overtime; then there was Wednesday night's episode of "Survivor."

The fortunes of this team remind me of UNC's last national championship squad in 2004-05.

Among the traits shared by both teams:

— An unbelievably fast and elusive point guard (Raymond Felton then, Ty Lawson now).

— An extremely talented, high-scoring big man (Sean May then, Tyler Hansbrough now).

— A sweet-shooting 2 guard with occasional no-show games (Rashad McCants then, Ellington now).

— And, perhaps most frustrating to Williams, a defense that shows up for some games (such as Saturday's walloping of N.C. State) and isn't very effective in others.

Three seasons ago, Williams was able to get his players to buy into the fact that they couldn't win solely on their extreme amount of offensive talent. They needed to exert just as much energy on the other end, because they would run into teams that could match them on the scoreboard if they didn't.

Such was the case Wednesday against a Georgia Tech team with plenty of offensive potential, but ... well, the Yellow Jackets are now 7-9. 'Nuff said?

The Heels played hard on the defensive end at times Wednesday, but they didn't do enough to cut off the Yellow Jackets' penetration lanes, to limit their open outside looks and to keep them off the offensive boards. Georgia Tech made eight 3s and grabbed 15 offensive rebounds.

I'm sure those numbers will be a focus in the Heels' next film session and practice. And, yes, good old Roy might have the rims removed once again.

It's a great position to be in. To have a team with very few offensive issues. A team that averages 90-plus points a game.

For Roy Williams, it's a similar challenge to one he faced three seasons ago.

If he's able to succeed once again, these 2007-08 Tar Heels might just give Williams his second national title in four years.

Life on Tobacco Road

ON COLLEGE BASKETBALL

I arrived in The Triangle on Monday, but I wasn't officially welcomed until Friday night.

To the common person, Oct. 12 is just a normal Friday. The end of the work week. A time to relax, perhaps sip a few adult beverages and prepare for the weekend's activities.

In Chapel Hill, however — and, I'm sure, on other select campuses throughout the country — the night of Oct. 12 was special. The air was cooler, the intensity was palpable.

Yep, it was the first night of college basketball practice. The first chance for Tar Heels fans to see their beloved 'Heels.

There's an important football game in Chapel Hill Saturday — a matchup between rivals No. 7 South Carolina (led by locally hated Steve Spurrier) and UNC. There's been plenty of talk about it on the radio waves around here.

But even as just a five-day resident of Tobacco Road, it's become pretty clear to me just how important college hoops is — even more than three weeks before the first game that counts.

The Dean Smith Center was packed to capacity — that's approximately 21,750 fans decked out in sky blue — as UNC alum and popular "SportsCenter" anchor Stuart Scott MCd "Late Night with Roy (Williams)," the 'Heels comedic opening practice of the promising season.

Fans from courtside to the upper nosebleeds sat through three hours of entertainment, which began with some yawn-inducing skits by the women's team. But when the men's team was introduced one by one, with each player walking down an aisle to a rousing standing ovation, I got chills.

I thought to myself, How are these players able to stay level-headed with all the love heaped upon them? How do they deal with the pressure? Or the expectations, considering that many pundits consider UNC the No. 1 team in the country entering the season?

Coming from Ann Arbor, I know how attached a city can become to a college team. Heck, 110,000-plus fans pack Michigan Stadium for a game against cupcake Eastern Michigan.

But it's just a different feeling down here. These 19-year-old basketball players can't hide behind a helmet — or an offensive line. They're exposed on the court. Their names will be etched into UNC's fine history.

As Tyler Hansbrough, North Carolina's potential national player of the year, said during Thursday's media day, UNC's tradition is one of the program's key recruiting tools. Both UNC and Duke sell themselves. These programs don't recruit players who shy away from the spotlight.

Which explains why no Tar Heel was hesitant to perform goofy dances and skits on the Dean Dome's floor Friday night. There was shaking, strutting, joking and — finally — playing in the form of a rather dramatic 37-37 tie between the white and blue team.

Even though many of the fans had slipped out by the game's end, I found myself sitting on the edge of my nosebleed seat as Ty Lawson's final-second shot clanged off the back iron, icing the meaningless tie.

I couldn't help it. It may still be mid-October — what we call in Ann Arbor the middle of football season. In places like Boston, postseason baseball grabs all the headlines.

But down here, on Tobacco Road, people are already talking basketball. Seriously.

Which makes we wonder, What will the atmosphere be come March?