Week 9 NFL picks

ON FOOTBALL

It is almost time. After watching so much analysis on ESPN, I'm ready to punch Ed Werder in the noggin, Super Bowl XLI1/2 is finally upon us. In a matter of hours the 8-0 Patriots will take on the 7-0 Colts in Indianapolis. One of those ESPN reports noted that tickets are selling for as much as $1,800.

Whoa.

According to another report, there also are other games on this Sunday, as in other NFL games. I checked this morning's paper to verify this startling rumor, and was surprised to find out that it held water. There are, in fact, 13 "other games."

So let's see if I can build on a decent 9-4 week which propelled my overall picking record to a still-dismal 62-39.

At New Orleans (3-4) 24, Jacksonville (5-2) 19: The Saints continue to march after that 0-4 start.

At Detroit (5-2) 27, Denver (3-4) 20: I'm still not convinced the Lions are for real, but they're good enough to beat an underachieving Broncos team. The Roy Williams-Dre Bly matchup should be fun to watch.

At Atlanta (1-6) 16, San Francisco (2-5) 10: Do not watch this game.

Green Bay (6-1) 24, at Kansas City (4-3) 21: Another late drive by Brett Favre wins this one. He's having so much fun, he might never retire.

At Cleveland (4-3) 21, Seattle (4-3) 14: The Browns continue to act as the AFC's greatest surprise.

Washington (4-3) 17, at N.Y. Jets (1-7) 9: This will not be a pleasant first start for Jets QB Kellen Clemens.

San Diego (4-3) 31, Minnesota (2-5) 17: Chargers continue to roll, saving Norv Turner his job.

At Buffalo (3-4) 24, Cincinnati (2-5) 19: I am officially off the Bengals bandwagon.

At Tampa Bay (4-4) 24, Arizona (3-4) 14: Cardinals are a terrible road team.

At Oakland (2-5) 17, Houston (3-5) 14: Apparently people in Houston and Oakland will get this game on CBS instead of Super Bowl XLI1/2. Ouch.

At Philly (3-4) 31, Dallas (6-1) 24: The players on the Eagles dedicate this performance to Andy Reid and the hardships he's going through with his family.

At Pittsburgh (5-2) 17, Baltimore (4-3) 13: These Steelers are for real while these Ravens aren't as tough as they're rumored to be.

Super Bowl XLI1/2: New England (8-0) 34, Indianapolis (7-0) 31: While I am a huge advocate of getting outdoors on Sunday afternoons and enjoying the fall leaves, this is a game you might want to stay in front of the TV for. In fact, this game will almost certainly be better than the actual Super Bowl.

If these teams meet again in the AFC Championship Game, that will top this because of what will be at stake, but the real Super Bowl's got nothing on this game.

I expect plenty of offense from both sides, with the outcome coming down to who has the ball last. That will be the Patriots, as Tom Brady will march them down the field for the winning field goal.

OK, that's enough analysis. I don't want to be a hypocrite.

Enjoy the game everyone. Except for you folks in Oakland and Houston (hah hah hah hah).

Monday, 7/16/07's main point: Redding signing won't save Lions

ON FOOTBALL

The Detroit Lions like to do this.

They'll sign a player — that is, one body — and hype him as a player who can save the franchise.

Dre' Bly, Charles Rogers, Roy Williams, Mike Williams, Calvin Johnson, even Joey Harrington. And, of course, back in the 1990s, the great Barry Sanders. They've all been tabbed as "prime-time players," guys who can make a huge impact on the field. The Lions pay them "the money," or draft them very high with the hope that their investment will turn the losses into wins.

Um, well, this strategy hasn't worked.

But, apparently, that hasn't stopped Detroit from dealing. This morning arguably the worst franchise in the NFL — and some will say all pro sports — made Cory Redding the highest-paid defensive tackle in football with a seven-year, $49 million contract which includes $16 million in guarantees.

Good for the Lions. They now have a happy defensive tackle. But that's about it.

This is not a team that can afford to have happy, satisfied players on its front lines. We all know what has transpired since Shaun Rogers became the highest-paid DT after getting a six-year, $46 million contract. Yeah, last year he was banned four games for violating the league's substance abuse policy, and he just was mixed up in a strip club incident (although the charges were dropped).

A few players with big contracts aren't going to save the Lions. This franchise needs young, hungry guys who want to win. This franchise needs team guys, not guys with imbalanced contracts that could cause jealously or animosity in the locker room.

Quick, who had the best season last year for the Lions? How about wide receiver Mike Furrey, who was making $544,620, great money for any of us, but spending money for big-time athletes.

Based upon the season Redding had in 2006 (48 tackles, eight sacks) and his health (he played all 16 games each of the past three years), he's a good player to hold onto. But the Lions overextended themselves in giving into his contract demands. So what if he was threatening to hold out from training camp. If he followed through on that, then a team that's trying to find the right mix of guys to gain some sort of respect shouldn't want him.

Make him play another year as the franchise player. Tell him if he puts together another solid season, he'll be rewarded with a good (but not outrageous) contract at season's end. Heck, tell him his new deal will depend on how many victories the Lions salvage this season.

The Colts had every right to reward Dwight Freeney with a six-year, $72 million deal last week (the highest ever for a defensive player). They're the Super Bowl champions. He's the leader of their underrated defense. It made perfect sense.

The Lions, on the other hand, don't even belong in the same league as the Colts right now. So they shouldn't be paying the big bucks for individual players. Once they become a winner, fine.

Until then, they should focus on finding the right mix of dedicated, insatiable players to stop the late-night talk show hosts from making joke after joke about their franchise.