There's no clear No. 1 in college hoops

ON BASKETBALL

It was a good weekend for the probable No. 1 seeds.

Well, at least for the front-runners. Duke was considered a possible top seed entering its game against North Carolina, but it had an outside shot. Besides the Blue Devils, all the other highly ranked teams bolstered their chances of being the top dog of a region.

There were the top-ranked Tar Heels holding the Devils scoreless over almost the final six minutes to take the rivalry game and the ACC title. I'm no "bracketologist," but I'm pretty certain the Heels will be a No. 1 seed regardless of what goes down at the ACC Tournament.

There was No. 2 Memphis absolutely recking UAB's chance of gaining an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. No one cares anymore about the Tigers' loss to Tennessee two weeks ago. They're playing great basketball at the right time of the year.

Speaking of an obliteration, there was No. 4 Tennessee deciding it was sick of living on the edge. The Volunteers completely spanked hapless South Carolina Sunday, emphatically sending Chris Lofton out on a good note heading into the SEC Tournament.

There was no dominating finish to the regular season for No. 3 UCLA, which needed an improbable, controversial over-the-backboard floater by Josh Shipp to survive senior day against California Saturday. And two days earlier, the Bruins needed overtime to clinch the Pac 10 with a win over Stanford. Still, UCLA showed that it can win the close games.

Finally, there was No. 5 Kansas ending the season with a flourish after a pair of losses in a 13-day span that had everybody questioning its candidacy for an ultimate seed. Now, the Jayhawks are fighting for, more than likely, the third or fourth spot.

Five teams. All with momentum.

But all full of flaws.

Picking the tournament winner this season is going to be as difficult as ever. A lot of guesswork will be involved.

That wasn't the case a year ago. One of the reasons I rose from the dead to win a few office pools was that I knew Florida was the best team in the country. That didn't mean there was a chance the Gators wouldn't lose one of six games. What it did mean, however, was that when Florida played well, it was practically invincible. I rode the Gators, and they played to their potential.

This season, any of the above-mentioned teams could play a good game and get bounced from the tournament. They all have noticeable flaws, and they're all capable of losing even on a relatively rosy night.

Let me put my analyzing cap on:

No. 1 North Carolina — The Tar Heels survived at Duke Saturday night despite uncharacteristic performances by several of the Devils, who shot poorly the entire game. It's hard to find a Heel who had a bad game Saturday, yet they had to pull off the amazing defensive end-of-game feat to get the win. Wayne Ellington and Danny Green both hits their outside shots — not always a sure thing. It is clear that the Heels will need both shooters finding the basket as well as inspired defensive performances to make it through March.

No. 2 Memphis — Free-throw shooting, free-throw shooting, free-throw shooting. Yes, I'll emphasize it. The Tigers' poor shooting from the stripe is a huge vice. It cost them in their only loss to the Vols, and it easily could punish them again in a close tournament game. Additionally, the Tigers have too many shooting slumps from the outside for their own good. When they're on, they're on. But when they're off, they're extremely vulnerable.

No. 3 UCLA — Anyone who saw the Bruins' survival week to close out the regular season knows they are far from a dominant conference champion. Any run to the championship game would be earned. Like the Tigers, they can go extremely cold from behind the perimeter — especially when Shipp doesn't feel like shooting. In fact, their offense appears downright pathetic at times. They stay in games thanks to their defense — and they've put together several comebacks this season — but come-from-behind wins in March are risky propositions.

No. 4 Tennessee — I know I'm getting repetitive here, but the Vols — like the above-mentioned teams — can go through periods where they throw up brick after brick. Without a consistent low-post threat, that can be a problem. Also, like the Heels, their defense is spotty, especially when their pressure is ineffective. And as I wrote about after their loss at Vandy, they don't have the smartest decision-makers — an underrated but key attribute needed for the Big Dance.

No. 5 Kansas — I said back in January that the Jayhawks are the best team in college basketball, and I still think they are ... when everyone is one the same page. They have great balance offensively. Good ball-handlers. Good on-ball defenders. They make free throws. But their recent history is bothersome. They always hit a wall during the NCAA Tournament, with enough players not showing up for a game, that they lose. One has to question whether they have the mental makeup under Bill Self to finally make the Final Four. Plus, they lack a true leader who has that ultimate desire to take his team to San Antonio. UNC, for instance, has Tyler Hansbrough. I don't see that player on the Jayhawks roster.

The No. 1 seeds are still in the air. More than likely, four of the five mentioned teams will get the spots, but it's possible that a conference tournament title by Duke or Texas could get them a top seed.

Whatever happens in the next week, this much will be true come Selection Sunday:

Choosing upsets won't be the only difficult task when filling out your bracket. Choosing a winner — and a runner-up — will be even harder.

Tennessee loses its smarts as No. 1

ON COLLEGE BASKETBALL

Editor's Note: This is my annual "I wish I were a basketball coach so I could keep my players from making all the wrong
plays in the final minute" column.

On Saturday night, I was impressed by the smart plays Tennessee made down the stretch to upset previously unbeaten Memphis. The Vols played the final seconds with poise, fouling Derrick Rose when they had a 3-point advantage with less than 10 seconds remaining.

Memphis never had a chance to tie the game at the end.

On Monday, the Vols gained their first-ever No. 1 ranking. Tuesday night, they threw it away, losing 72-69 at Vanderbilt. They didn't play the last minute about as poorly as they could have. Rather, they gave themselves the worst chance to win with the decisions they made.

Granted, it's a 40-minute basketball game. One minute doesn't decide it. The Commodores played extremely well throughout the SEC battle to earn the victory. But Tennessee had a chance — until it didn't make the correct choices.

It was not the performance of a No. 1 team. And, I must mention, not the performance of a Final Four team. In fact, it reminded me of the Vols squad that imploded against Ohio State in the Elite Eight last season.

Let me review:

Situation No. 1: Tennessee trailed by five points, 69-64, with 59 seconds remaining. Vanderbilt had the ball.
— Best option: Try for the steal for 5 seconds then foul immediately.
— Alternative option: Don't foul. Play tight defense, hope Vandy takes a quick shot, and prepare to score quickly.

What happened: Vols' coach Bruce Pearl — who in Vandy's unique concert-hall model arena was stationed behind the baseline on the other end of the court — tried to tell his players not to foul. Apparently, they got the message for 27 seconds. Then, inexplicably, they fouled with about 10 seconds left on the shot clock. No!!! Could they have played it worst? Only if there were 3 seconds left to shoot.

Situation No. 2: Luckily for the Vols, Vandy tried to help them, fouling Ramar Smith to on a made layup to set up a three-point play that made the score 70-67 with 24 seconds left.
— Best option: Try for steal for 3 or 4 seconds at the most and then foul.

What happened: The Vols, supposedly one of the quickest teams in the nation, weren't able to foul for an astounding 10 seconds, and when they finally did, who did they foul? How about senior Shan Foster, the Commodores' best player and a 76 percent free-throw shooter (not to mention a likely candidate for the SEC's player of the year award)? Good choice. Foster made both free throws to extend Vandy's lead to 72-67. Meanwhile, freshman Keegan Bell had been in possession of the ball for several seconds with Vols surrounding him yet failing to foul him. More on this later.

Situation No. 3: So the Vols were down by five points with under 15 seconds remaining and they had the ball 94 feet from scoring.
— Best option: Inbound the ball to a decent shooter and have him pull up for a 3-pointer. If he makes it, you're still alive. Vandy would need to make two free throws to seal the deal.If he misses it, maybe you get a long rebound and launch another one. Maybe you don't and you shake hands.
— Second-best option: Have the ball-handler pass to another player for a 3-pointer. This will take more time, but you'll still have a chance.

What happened: Smith didn't get the memo. He raced up the floor and down the lane, passing to teammate Wayne Chism for a dunk with 7 seconds remaining. So, basically, the Vols were back to where they'd been 20 seconds earlier, but now a mere 7 seconds remained. All the Commodores needed was one free throw to pull off the upset.

Situation No. 4: Tennessee had one timeout remaining when Chism dunked the ball. Its only chance of tying the game was by either getting a steal and a 3-pointer or having Vandy miss two free throws and then knocking in a 3.
— Best option: Save the timeout. Your players should know to play your custom full-court press and foul immediately. You may need the timeout in case there are, say, 2.8 seconds left and Vandy misses two free throws. It would allow you to set up a play for a game-tying shot instead of hastily chucking up a Hail Mary.

What happened: Pearl burned the timeout. At the time, I didn't think it would matter — but it did. Vandy broke the press, and Foster launched a pass down-court toward Bell, who just barely stayed inbounds before being fouled with 1.8 seconds remaining. Remember, I said we'd get back to Bell? Well, entering the game, the freshman had shot 3-for-6 from the free-throw line all season. Not too much experience, huh? And guess what? He back-rimmed both free shots. But there had to be a reason why he smiled after missing the first one. He, a freshman, must have known the situation — "Tennessee has no timeouts!" And after the second miss, Smith's last-ditch 80-footer sailed so high — and cleared the backboard — that the ESPN camera lost it for a second. With a timeout, the Vols could have at least set up a play for sharp-shooter Chris Lofton to attempt a half-court. A prayer, yes, but a much better prayer.

So that's what transpired to likely end Tennessee's run as the No. 1 team in the country. The Vols are a great team, an extremely talented team, but the decisions they made Tuesday night reeked of a team not used to winning.