Championship game prediction: Picking the Tar Heels

ON BASKETBALL

Making this pick was far from easy. It was akin to choosing between peppermint and coffee ice cream — I love 'em both.

But when it came down to it, the peppermint simply has more flair than the coffee. Both have valuable attributes, but the peppermint's are just a little more capable.

Ya dig?

Well if you don't, this is what your bumbling writer is getting at: As good as the Michigan State Spartans are and as good as they're playing, the North Carolina Tar Heels are simply a little bit (a hair or two) better — and they've shown that throughout the NCAA Tournament.

Basically, the Heels can go out and play a decent game — like they did Saturday against Villanova — and still win if the Spartans are mediocre (as the Wildcats were). MSU, on the other hand, has to play a good game to win Monday night. Anything less will result in a loss.

If UNC plays its best, forgetaboutit.

So write down this score for me, but make sure to note that I'm not entirely confident in it.

North Carolina 84, Michigan State 75.

How could it be different X's and O's wise?

Well, if the Spartans can slow down ACC player of the year Ty Lawson. I think that's possible, considering how well Travis Walton has defended recently. Against Connecticut, he helped hold stud guard A.J. Price to 5-of-20 shooting and a minimal impact on the game.

If Lawson isn't his typical dominant self, that affects all the Heels.

The Spartans could also gain an advantage through their bench play. In the win over the Huskies, Korie Lucious was a huge difference-maker with 11 points. Durrell Summers added 10 and Draymond Green had eight, and the bench outscored UConn's by a ridiculous 33-7 margin.

The Heels have athletic big man Ed Davis on their bench, and he provides them with a good defensive presence and some rebounds. But he's not a scorer. Outside of him, only Bobby Frasor occasionally scores off the Heels bench.

So another strong effort by the Spartans reserves could make a huge difference.

And finally, there's the homecourt advantage. Not too much should be made of it since this is the national title game. We know the Heels won't be fazed by the extremely pro-MSU crowd inside Ford Field.

But the fans will help the Spartans if they get down. Fans will rise to their feet in an attempt to exhilarate their Spartans, get them back in the game. That can help a team find that last ounce of energy, that last push, when the players need it.

So there are a lot of reasons to believe the Spartans might pull their third straight upset of a No. 1 seed Monday night and set off a wild celebration in a state that desperately needs it.

There are just a couple more trustworthy reasons, however, to count on the Heels fulfilling their only real goal of the season.

I mentioned Lawson who, you know, is pretty darn good. No one's stopped him yet in the tournament. Walton has one heck of a task ahead of him.

Then there's Tyler Hansbrough, who you can bet will make the most of his final college game in what's seemed like a career spanning centuries. He'll, most likely, have another quiet but efficient night.

But perhaps most importantly, the Heels have two reliable 3-point shooters and, most importantly, clutch performers outside of the attention-grabbing Lawson.

Wayne Ellington is playing the best basketball of his career by far, and if he's left open he'll knock down dagger-like 3s. No MSU outside shooter can be counted on as much as Ellington.

And then there's senior Danny Green, who has become Mr. Big Shot for the Heels. He struggled at the beginning of the postseason in the ACC tournament and first couple games of the Big Dance, but he's rediscovered his shooting stroke at the right time.

Against Villanova, Green's two huge 3s — sandwiched around a Lawson layup — kept the feisty 'Cats at bay when they had cut what appeared an insurmountable deficit down to five points early in the second half.

Green killed their spirit with two flicks of his right wrist.

I'm banking on him, and Ellington, pulling off similar acts against the Spartans.

And while MSU has all the pieces of a national-title team assembled, they don't fit as smoothly together as North Carolina's do right now. They haven't been together as long as the Heels main cogs have.

The Spartans, if they avoid early departures to the NBA, might go out and win the thing next year.

But since October, this has been North Carolina's year. This has been the Heels destiny.

They seem too sturdy to fall a game short of accomplishing their long-awaited main objective.

And that's why, after 38 games, they'll finally get to celebrate without having to worry about a next task on their seemingly never-ending journey to the top of the college hoops world.

There's no clear No. 1 in college hoops

ON BASKETBALL

It was a good weekend for the probable No. 1 seeds.

Well, at least for the front-runners. Duke was considered a possible top seed entering its game against North Carolina, but it had an outside shot. Besides the Blue Devils, all the other highly ranked teams bolstered their chances of being the top dog of a region.

There were the top-ranked Tar Heels holding the Devils scoreless over almost the final six minutes to take the rivalry game and the ACC title. I'm no "bracketologist," but I'm pretty certain the Heels will be a No. 1 seed regardless of what goes down at the ACC Tournament.

There was No. 2 Memphis absolutely recking UAB's chance of gaining an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. No one cares anymore about the Tigers' loss to Tennessee two weeks ago. They're playing great basketball at the right time of the year.

Speaking of an obliteration, there was No. 4 Tennessee deciding it was sick of living on the edge. The Volunteers completely spanked hapless South Carolina Sunday, emphatically sending Chris Lofton out on a good note heading into the SEC Tournament.

There was no dominating finish to the regular season for No. 3 UCLA, which needed an improbable, controversial over-the-backboard floater by Josh Shipp to survive senior day against California Saturday. And two days earlier, the Bruins needed overtime to clinch the Pac 10 with a win over Stanford. Still, UCLA showed that it can win the close games.

Finally, there was No. 5 Kansas ending the season with a flourish after a pair of losses in a 13-day span that had everybody questioning its candidacy for an ultimate seed. Now, the Jayhawks are fighting for, more than likely, the third or fourth spot.

Five teams. All with momentum.

But all full of flaws.

Picking the tournament winner this season is going to be as difficult as ever. A lot of guesswork will be involved.

That wasn't the case a year ago. One of the reasons I rose from the dead to win a few office pools was that I knew Florida was the best team in the country. That didn't mean there was a chance the Gators wouldn't lose one of six games. What it did mean, however, was that when Florida played well, it was practically invincible. I rode the Gators, and they played to their potential.

This season, any of the above-mentioned teams could play a good game and get bounced from the tournament. They all have noticeable flaws, and they're all capable of losing even on a relatively rosy night.

Let me put my analyzing cap on:

No. 1 North Carolina — The Tar Heels survived at Duke Saturday night despite uncharacteristic performances by several of the Devils, who shot poorly the entire game. It's hard to find a Heel who had a bad game Saturday, yet they had to pull off the amazing defensive end-of-game feat to get the win. Wayne Ellington and Danny Green both hits their outside shots — not always a sure thing. It is clear that the Heels will need both shooters finding the basket as well as inspired defensive performances to make it through March.

No. 2 Memphis — Free-throw shooting, free-throw shooting, free-throw shooting. Yes, I'll emphasize it. The Tigers' poor shooting from the stripe is a huge vice. It cost them in their only loss to the Vols, and it easily could punish them again in a close tournament game. Additionally, the Tigers have too many shooting slumps from the outside for their own good. When they're on, they're on. But when they're off, they're extremely vulnerable.

No. 3 UCLA — Anyone who saw the Bruins' survival week to close out the regular season knows they are far from a dominant conference champion. Any run to the championship game would be earned. Like the Tigers, they can go extremely cold from behind the perimeter — especially when Shipp doesn't feel like shooting. In fact, their offense appears downright pathetic at times. They stay in games thanks to their defense — and they've put together several comebacks this season — but come-from-behind wins in March are risky propositions.

No. 4 Tennessee — I know I'm getting repetitive here, but the Vols — like the above-mentioned teams — can go through periods where they throw up brick after brick. Without a consistent low-post threat, that can be a problem. Also, like the Heels, their defense is spotty, especially when their pressure is ineffective. And as I wrote about after their loss at Vandy, they don't have the smartest decision-makers — an underrated but key attribute needed for the Big Dance.

No. 5 Kansas — I said back in January that the Jayhawks are the best team in college basketball, and I still think they are ... when everyone is one the same page. They have great balance offensively. Good ball-handlers. Good on-ball defenders. They make free throws. But their recent history is bothersome. They always hit a wall during the NCAA Tournament, with enough players not showing up for a game, that they lose. One has to question whether they have the mental makeup under Bill Self to finally make the Final Four. Plus, they lack a true leader who has that ultimate desire to take his team to San Antonio. UNC, for instance, has Tyler Hansbrough. I don't see that player on the Jayhawks roster.

The No. 1 seeds are still in the air. More than likely, four of the five mentioned teams will get the spots, but it's possible that a conference tournament title by Duke or Texas could get them a top seed.

Whatever happens in the next week, this much will be true come Selection Sunday:

Choosing upsets won't be the only difficult task when filling out your bracket. Choosing a winner — and a runner-up — will be even harder.

Duke's balance, 3s down Carolina

ON COLLEGE BASKETBALL

Memo to North Carolina fans: Maybe if you stopped hating Greg Paulus so much, he'd stop playing so well.

Paulus, a former high school stud quarterback, has reveled in being at the center of things this season, and Wednesday night was no different. Duke's point guard lit up the Dean Smith Center for 18 points on 6-for-8 shooting from 3-point range. Thursday morning, sitting in a room full of UNC fans, everyone talked of how they absolutely can't stand Paulus.

But they could have used him on their team Wednesday. Most of Paulus' 3s were contested, but the 6-foot-1 guard has a quick release and was able to get his shot off over contesting defenders.

UNC didn't play terrible, it was just out-manned. Tyler Hansbrough could only do so much.

And that's why, at this point in the season, Duke is a slightly better team. The Blue Devils simply have more scoring options — and you never know who's going to pour in 20 on a particular night.

On Wednesday, it was everybody, as six Devils scored in double figures. Additionally, five Devils knocked down at least one 3-pointer.

How do you stop Duke's attack? You hope the Devils have a bad shooting night from behind the arc like they did in their lone loss to Pittsburgh. When Paulus made a 3 less than 20 seconds into the game, I got the feeling it was going to be a good shooting night for the Devils, which was bad news for the Tar Heels.

If you check out the box score, UNC made just two less field goals than Duke (30 to 28) and made three more free throws (19 to 16) — numbers that would equate to a one-point Duke win if the 3-point shot didn't exist.

The arc killed the Heels Wednesday night. While Duke made 13 of 29 long-range bombs, UNC managed to hit just three of 17.

I wasn't surprised. Not only do the Devils shoot the 3 well, they also defend it extremely well. In all eight of its ACC games, Duke has not allowed a team to make more than four 3s, and its opponents have shot a combined 28-of-101 (28 percent) from downtown.

Duke haters might call that luck, but the truth is that the Devils are willing to give up the occasional easy inside shot as long as they don't surrender the open 3. In college basketball, nothing swings momentum like a made 3-pointer — especially back-to-back 3s. Only once did the Heels have the momentum — when they ended the first half on an 8-0 run to pull within 42-39. But the momentum was gone in the second half, and Duke gradually built its lead en route to the 89-78 win.

While Hansbrough gave another workmanlike effort with 28 points and 18 rebounds, he didn't get the perimeter help he needed. Duke was all over UNC's top outside shooter, Wayne Ellington, forcing him into a miserable 3-for-14 shooting performance, including zero makes out of six 3-point attempts. Sixth man Danny Green was even more off, not scoring until he hit a late 3 and finishing 1-for-10 from the field.

Obviously, the Heels missed point guard Ty Lawson, whose ankle didn't feel great before the game, causing Roy Williams to tell him to sit out. The Heels weren't able to get out on the fast-break with Lawson sidelined, and Lawson has also improved his outside shot this season. Assuming a full recovery, Duke-Carolina Part II should be very intriguing come early March.

But what happened, happened. And I'm not even sure Lawson would have made a huge difference. The Devils' system is predicated on running, so I don't think UNC would have wanted to get into a track meet.

As it was, Duke thrived in the half-court because of its ability to shoot the 3. When Kyle Singler sets a pick out top for Paulus, it's almost impossible to guard. Here's why: If Singler's man doesn't hedge on Paulus, the point guard will quickly pull up for an open 3. If he does hedge, Singler is usually pops open for a 3 — and for a 6-8 guy, he can shoot it from outside.

Singler's and Paulus' 3s a minute apart late in the second half helped to keep Duke's lead at nine, and UNC didn't get much closer until the final minute when it was too late.

The good thing for the Heels is it's only early February. In retrospect, Wednesday's result won't matter come the big games in March. By then, Lawson will likely be healthy and the Heels will be an improved team on both ends of the floor.

The good thing for the Devils is they're on a roll right now and they're showing no signs of letting up. All season long, they've been doubted because of their lack of an inside presence. But will anyone remember that they were out-rebounded by 11 (49-38) Wednesday? Maybe Mike Krzyzewski and his staff in preparing them for future games, but nobody else.

The truth is that the Devils have the players to win a national title. Their leader, DeMarcus Nelson, had a poor game Wednesday, making a mere three of nine shots to score 13 points and playing just 23 foul-plagued minutes. If Hansbrough — easily UNC's most important player — had scored below his average or been in foul trouble, the Heels would have lost by a lot more than 11.

These teams are still very evenly matched, and there remains a chance Duke could stumble before the rematch March 8, giving UNC a chance to snare a share of the ACC title when the teams face off inside Cameron Indoor Stadium.

But for now, the national rankings have got it right: Duke is No. 2 and UNC is No. 3.