Texas House District 31 Is NOT A Safe Republican Seat

 A remarkable thing is happening in Central Texas.

Just a few months ago, Texas House District 31, located in two counties north of Austin, was considered a "safe" seat for the Republican Party.

That is no longer true. M.J. Hegar (wife, mother, and military veteran) has shocked the pundits by making the district one in which the incumbent Republican (John Carter) just might be unseated! The seat is still rated by pundits as "leaning" or "likely" Republican, but no one now considers it a "safe" seat anymore. And Hegar has just completed a series of ads that will be released soon, and they could take the seat into the toss-up category.

Here is just some of what the Texas Tribune had to say about this race:

By force of her personal story and fundraising prowess, Hegar, a military veteran, has put this traditionally Republican stronghold of a House district on the midterm map. . . .

Since he was first elected in 2002, Carter has cruised to re-election. The district's voting history would normally suggest a similar outcome this year. But Democrats are seeing momentum in races across Texas and the country and hoping Hegar might turn out to be the right Democrat at the right time to flip the seat. . . .

Hegar blew Carter out of the water in fundraising over the summer largely on the strength of a biographical viral video. The 3-minute clip highlighted her military service, including being shot down by the Taliban in Afghanistan in 2009, as well as her successful bid to change the military’s policy on women in combat. It quickly gained more than 2 million views on YouTube and turbocharged Hegar's fundraising. Last month, she reported raising $1.1 million in the second quarter, four times Carter's sum over the same period. She also had a $300,000 cash-on-hand advantage. . . .

There are a few reasons some in GOP circles fear a perfect storm is brewing against Carter. Perhaps the one quietly discussed the most is that the mechanics, fundraising and tactics of modern campaigning have changed dramatically since his first successful run more than 15 years ago and he hasn't kept up. Also, Democrat Beto O'Rourke's spirited bid against U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz is beginning to spook Republicans about how a potential surge in Democratic turnout might impact down-ballot races just like Carter's.

The shifting demographics of this district — particularly in suburban Williamson County — are also raising some alarm bells. While still considered a Republican district, it was redder when Republican officials drew its lines seven years ago. If a Democratic midterm wave sweeping across the country did reach Central Texas, could the district possibly flip? . . .

Carter is a senior member of the U.S. House Appropriations Committee. In political terms, this means that the House GOP campaign arm relies on him to raise hundreds of thousands of dollars every cycle to help other candidates.

But in his most recent campaign finance report, Carter shifted from a donor member — one who sends money to vulnerable members — to a recipient member. About a dozen U.S. House Republicans, including U.S. House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy of California, donated money from their campaigns to Carter’s re-election effort. . . .

And so Carter looks to the fall for what could be the fight of his life. 

Trump Is Sending Money To Help Texas Republicans

 The 2018 race is really starting to get interesting. Some House seats in the red state of Texas are no longer considered gimmes for Republican incumbents.

We learn now that Donald Trump must be getting worried about whether the Republicans can keep control of the House of Representatives. He is sending a maximum contribution under law to 100 candidates -- six of them in Texas.

Five of the Republicans receiving money are Michael Burgess (District 26), Michael Cloud (District 27), Mike Conway (District 11), John Culberson (District 7), and Pete Sessions (District 32). Culberson and Sessions were both outraged significantly by their Democratic opponents (Lizzie Pannill Fletcher in District 7 and Colin Allred in District 32) and both represent districts that Clinton carried in 2016. Democrats have a good chance of snatching both Districts away from the GOP. Cloud is brand new (having replaced Farenthold who resigned) and Democrats have a decent chance to take that seat also.

The sixth is in my own congressional district -- District 31. John Carter is the Republican incumbent, and a few months ago it was thought he was a "safe" incumbent. But that was before he got a credible Democratic opponent -- Army veteran Mary M.J. Hegar. Hegar has raised four times as much campaign money as Carter this year (well over a million dollars), and the Cook Political Report has moved the race from SAFE Republican to only LIKELY Republican.

Hegar has the money to compete, and seems to be a good campaigner (with her first political ad going viral). I think she has put District 31 in play.

If the Democrats can take a few seats away from the Republicans in Texas, the blue wave would really be on its way. Texas is not a state where the GOP expected to lose seats.

Texas House Dist. 31 Has Impressive Democratic Candidate

 (These photos of Mary "MJ" Hegar are from her website.)

U.S. House District 31 in Texas has been reliably Republican for years, but that may change in the coming election. The Democrats have a strong candidate this year.

That candidate is Mary "MJ" Hegar. Hegar was a helicopter search and rescue pilot for the U.S. Army -- doing three tours in Afghanistan. She was awarded a Purple Heart for wounds sustained in combat and the Distinguished Flying Cross with Valor Device. After returning, she successfully fought for the right of women to serve in combat position in the military.

Her first ad for her run for Congress went viral, and has received over 4 million views in a very short time. The following is part of an interview she did with Michael Walsh at Yahoo News after the ad went viral.

Yahoo News: Are you surprised with the level of attention your campaign ad has received so far?

Hegar: I got to say yes and no. I’m always surprised when people show interest in my bio because I saw hundreds of people doing the same stuff that I was doing, but I’m not surprised that the message of absent representation [that congressmen are less interested in representing their constituents than advancing their careers] is resonating with people. I think that most people feel that way.

Now that the video is live, have you had people reaching out to you saying that their representatives didn’t think they were important enough because they weren’t a donor, or something else along those lines? 

I think there is this sense of “you’re not important” or that you can only get to the front of the line if you’re a high-dollar donor. I had one person say to me once, “Don’t forget me when you go to D.C.” I said, “Wait, let me be clear. Your donation says to me that you agree that we share values and that you think I’ll be effective in fighting for us.” If that’s what you mean then I’ll be fighting for us in D.C. I think we need more of that. We need more people who are not willing to promise people the moon just to get their money.

This video depicts the sexism you encountered when you came back. The door was closed in your face and you couldn’t talk to your representative because you weren’t a large donor. What would you like to do to make sure other women and people in general don’t get the same treatment you did? 

I really believe in my heart that people in general — whether that’s different ethnicities, religions, genders, backgrounds, accents, socioeconomic statuses or anything — really need a government that’s more reflective of our population. And until we have that, we will have representatives, a majority of whom are representing their own self-interests and the future of their careers. We’ve got to hire more servant leaders. I think that’s a great thing about the wave of veterans running. Veterans understand what it means to put the good of the country ahead of their lives. I don’t think we’ll see a lot of this improve until we have people in office who frankly don’t need to get reelected for their ego or résumé. They just are serving their time as long as their constituents want to put them there. Now, unfortunately, the system is set up to put up barriers [in front of] everyday people who want to run for office. That’s something I’m working on trying to tear down here in my district. I’m trying to support good people up and down the ballot.

If you’re elected, when you get to Congress, what main goals do you have in mind? What problems do you see in D.C. wherein you can serve as a corrective and set things straight? 

I have a very realistic view of what a freshman congresswoman can get done. I’ve been mentoring with members and been in D.C. lobbying to stop bad legislation in the past, successfully. It’s really more about what I can do at home. Now I do have things I want to accomplish in D.C., but the No. 1 priority is constituent services and making sure that the district I’ve grown up in and love has representation and has a way for constituents to communicate and get help when they need help navigating the bureaucracy in government. And advocating. I find it personally offensive when representatives say they know how to advocate for groups without going to those groups and saying, “What are your experiences? What things worked? What things haven’t worked? What are the obstacles you had to overcome? What can we do to make things better and collaborate?” I definitely want to fight for marginalized communities, fight money in politics, fight toxic hyperpartisanship. Those are my three big things.

You’re running in a very deep red district. It’s been Republican for a while. What gives you confidence that this seat can turn blue?  

Probably the same thing that has moved our race from “strong red” to “likely red” in a couple of polls. I have lived here almost my whole life. I know this district. This is not your typical red district. Most people here don’t like to self-identify as one party or another. There’s a lot of disenfranchisement on Democratic votes in Texas. A lot of “Oh, this is a red state. If you’re a Democrat your vote doesn’t count” — not to mention voter suppression of different minorities and other groups that tend to vote more heavily Democratic. I would say that the majority of people in this district don’t like to say, “I’m a member of this party or that party.” They’re discerning. They like to vote for the person: someone with character and integrity who will represent them. We have more veterans in this district than in 97 percent of the rest of the country. There is no longer a party of the military. Maybe 20 to 30 years ago, Republicans were the party of the military. I don’t think that’s true anymore in the information age. I think that the reason I’m confident we can win is my district is hungry for representation. While there have been other good people on the ballot against John Carter, those people haven’t been able to gather the type of resources it takes to communicate to voters that they are good people and will represent them. We’re presented with a real opportunity here and I know we can win.

I’ve taken on uphill battles before. Becoming a pilot was no easy feat, 150 enemy fighters to our nine, suing the secretary of defense: all of those things were done intentionally, after I looked at the data, saw the path to victory and did what it took to win. This will just be my fourth.