Texas House District 31 Is NOT A Safe Republican Seat

 A remarkable thing is happening in Central Texas.

Just a few months ago, Texas House District 31, located in two counties north of Austin, was considered a "safe" seat for the Republican Party.

That is no longer true. M.J. Hegar (wife, mother, and military veteran) has shocked the pundits by making the district one in which the incumbent Republican (John Carter) just might be unseated! The seat is still rated by pundits as "leaning" or "likely" Republican, but no one now considers it a "safe" seat anymore. And Hegar has just completed a series of ads that will be released soon, and they could take the seat into the toss-up category.

Here is just some of what the Texas Tribune had to say about this race:

By force of her personal story and fundraising prowess, Hegar, a military veteran, has put this traditionally Republican stronghold of a House district on the midterm map. . . .

Since he was first elected in 2002, Carter has cruised to re-election. The district's voting history would normally suggest a similar outcome this year. But Democrats are seeing momentum in races across Texas and the country and hoping Hegar might turn out to be the right Democrat at the right time to flip the seat. . . .

Hegar blew Carter out of the water in fundraising over the summer largely on the strength of a biographical viral video. The 3-minute clip highlighted her military service, including being shot down by the Taliban in Afghanistan in 2009, as well as her successful bid to change the military’s policy on women in combat. It quickly gained more than 2 million views on YouTube and turbocharged Hegar's fundraising. Last month, she reported raising $1.1 million in the second quarter, four times Carter's sum over the same period. She also had a $300,000 cash-on-hand advantage. . . .

There are a few reasons some in GOP circles fear a perfect storm is brewing against Carter. Perhaps the one quietly discussed the most is that the mechanics, fundraising and tactics of modern campaigning have changed dramatically since his first successful run more than 15 years ago and he hasn't kept up. Also, Democrat Beto O'Rourke's spirited bid against U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz is beginning to spook Republicans about how a potential surge in Democratic turnout might impact down-ballot races just like Carter's.

The shifting demographics of this district — particularly in suburban Williamson County — are also raising some alarm bells. While still considered a Republican district, it was redder when Republican officials drew its lines seven years ago. If a Democratic midterm wave sweeping across the country did reach Central Texas, could the district possibly flip? . . .

Carter is a senior member of the U.S. House Appropriations Committee. In political terms, this means that the House GOP campaign arm relies on him to raise hundreds of thousands of dollars every cycle to help other candidates.

But in his most recent campaign finance report, Carter shifted from a donor member — one who sends money to vulnerable members — to a recipient member. About a dozen U.S. House Republicans, including U.S. House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy of California, donated money from their campaigns to Carter’s re-election effort. . . .

And so Carter looks to the fall for what could be the fight of his life. 

Trump Is Sending Money To Help Texas Republicans

 The 2018 race is really starting to get interesting. Some House seats in the red state of Texas are no longer considered gimmes for Republican incumbents.

We learn now that Donald Trump must be getting worried about whether the Republicans can keep control of the House of Representatives. He is sending a maximum contribution under law to 100 candidates -- six of them in Texas.

Five of the Republicans receiving money are Michael Burgess (District 26), Michael Cloud (District 27), Mike Conway (District 11), John Culberson (District 7), and Pete Sessions (District 32). Culberson and Sessions were both outraged significantly by their Democratic opponents (Lizzie Pannill Fletcher in District 7 and Colin Allred in District 32) and both represent districts that Clinton carried in 2016. Democrats have a good chance of snatching both Districts away from the GOP. Cloud is brand new (having replaced Farenthold who resigned) and Democrats have a decent chance to take that seat also.

The sixth is in my own congressional district -- District 31. John Carter is the Republican incumbent, and a few months ago it was thought he was a "safe" incumbent. But that was before he got a credible Democratic opponent -- Army veteran Mary M.J. Hegar. Hegar has raised four times as much campaign money as Carter this year (well over a million dollars), and the Cook Political Report has moved the race from SAFE Republican to only LIKELY Republican.

Hegar has the money to compete, and seems to be a good campaigner (with her first political ad going viral). I think she has put District 31 in play.

If the Democrats can take a few seats away from the Republicans in Texas, the blue wave would really be on its way. Texas is not a state where the GOP expected to lose seats.

Texas District 31 Is No Longer A Safe Seat For The GOP

Larry Sabato (from the University of Virginia Center for Politics) has moved another 17 congressional seats toward Democrats (see chart above). Eight seats have been moved from leans Republican to toss-up. Three seats have been moved fro likely Republican to leans Republican. Five seats have been moved from safe Republican to likely Republican. And one seat has been moved from likely Democrat to safe Democrat.

One of those seats is in my own district -- House District 31, which is currently held by Republican John Carter. This had been considered a safe seat for Republicans. But the Democrats nominated a great candidate, and she is moving the district toward Democrats. The seat is still considered likely Republican, but the Democrat (Mary "MJ" Hegar) has raised over a million dollars in campaign funds, and is ready to fight for the seat.

District 31 is composed of two Texas counties -- Williamson and Bell Counties. Williamson has slightly more Republicans than Democrats, but Bell (the home of the Army's Fort Hood) is solidly red. Hegar is a veteran Army helicopter pilot, who served two tours in Afghanistan -- getting a Purple Heart and the Distinguished Flying Croos with Valor. If she can peel off a substantial portion of the Fort Hood votes, she could win this race. I'm starting to get excited.

Below are the seats rated by Sabato as possibly being in play now. He shows the Democrats with two open seats that are listed as toss-ups. But the Republicans have 33 seats they currently hold that are now listed as toss-ups. For the first time this election season, Sabato is now predicting the Democrats will flip the House of Representatives.