The Difference Between Voters in 2016 and 2018

 

The charts above are from the Pew Research Center. It compares the 2016 voters to those in 2018, and shows where the Democrats got the votes to carry the 2018 election. Can they keep those voters in 2020? We'll soon find out!

How The Different Religious Groups Voted In 2018 Election

I found this chart (from the Pew Research Center) interesting, and thought you might also. It shows how the different religious groups voted in the 2018 midterm election.

Some Charts That Should Worry Donald Trump About 2020

Donald Trump has a problem with women voters. And it is a problem that has remained consistent since he took office. It's also a problem that will limit him to one term if he can't change it before the 2020 election.

The top two charts use information provided by the Pew Research Center. They relate that the electorate is 53% women and 47% men. That would be bad enough for Trump, but as the second chart shows, women voted in a larger percentage than men did in 2018 (just as in past elections) -- and they are likely to do that again in 2020.

The bottom chart shows that 53% of women say they will definitely vote for someone other than Trump in 2020, while only 23% say they will definitely vote for him. The percentage among men is much closer (42% against and 32% for).

If there is a large turnout in 2020 (and I believe it will be massive), then women are going to kick Trump out of the White House.

The bottom chart reflects the results of the latest Politico / Morning Consult Poll -- done on April 28th and 29th of a national sample of 1,995 registered voters, with a 2 point margin of error.

Three Interesting Charts On The 2018 Vote

I found these charts interesting, and thought you might also. We already knew the 2018 vote was much larger than the midterm vote in 2014. These charts show how much it was up in each demographic group. If the turnout in 2020 mirrors the 2018 turnout (in terms of growth in each group), then the Democrats should do very well.

70% In The U.S. Say Health System Is In A State Of Crisis

It turned out that health care was one of the primary issues in the 2018 election. The Republicans didn't see that, and the result was that they lost 40 seats in the House of Representatives -- giving Democrats a substantial majority.

The Republicans were still trying to sell the idea that all of Obamacare should be repealed, and even supported the effort by many GOP-controlled states to have it declared unconstitutional by the courts (even the popular provisions like protection for people with pre-existing conditions). That was a bad misjudgment.

It turns out that 70% of the public thinks the U.S. health care system is in crisis, and needs major changes. The public wants health care fixed. They do NOT want to go backwards. They now know that Obamacare was an improvement, but did not fix the broken system. They want something better -- something that will provide decent health care for all Americans, and do it at a cost that people can afford.

It's not just Democrats that believe this. While that is the feeling of 84% of Democrats, it is also shared by a majority of Republicans (56%). Republican officials, on both the national and state level, need to change their views on health care, or they will suffer another disastrous election in 2020.

The charts above are from a Gallup Poll -- done between November 1st and 11th of 2018. They questioned 1,037 adults nationally, and the survey had a margin of error of 4 points.

Minorities Had A Longer Wait To Vote Than Whites

Most people didn't have to wait a long time at the polling stations to vote in the recent election. About 80% of the public said they waited 10 minutes or less. Another 14% said they waited between 10 and 30 minutes, and 6% said they waited longer than 30 minutes. That's better than I had expected.

But there is one troubling, though expected fact. Minorities (Blacks and Hispanics) waited longer than Whites did to vote. About 82% of Whites waited less than 10 minutes to vote, while the figure was 72% for Blacks and 70% for Hispanics. About 9% of Blacks and Hispanics had to wait longer than 30 minutes, while only 5% of Whites waited that long.

Is this because Republican officials put fewer polling stations in minority areas (hoping some would give up on waiting and leave instead of voting)? Probably. That's just one of the ways the Republicans tried to suppress the minority vote.

The chart above represent results found in a Pew Research Center survey -- done between November 7th and 16th of a national sample of 10,640 voters, with a 1.7 point margin of error.

Beto's Final Senate Fundraising Amount Tops $80 Million

Beto O'Rourke topped Ted Cruz in fundraising for seven of the eight fundraising periods -- and wound up raising more than twice what Cruz raised. This was remarkable considering O'Rourke accepted no money from PAC's (only from individual donors), while Cruz did get PAC money.

Here's part of what Tom Benning reported in the Dallas Morning News:

Rep. Beto O'Rourke ended up raising an astonishing $80 million in his failed bid to unseat Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, putting an exclamation point on the El Paso Democrat's record-setting Senate fundraising haul.

The final tally, released late Thursday, is sure to intensify speculation that O'Rourke could mount a campaign in 2020 against Republican President Donald Trump.

Despite his relatively lean political resume, O'Rourke has received perhaps the most buzz of any potential Democratic contender for the White House. Even former President Barack Obama hailed him last month, right after the two reportedly met at Obama's office in D.C.

Much of the attention on O'Rourke has focused on a frenetic campaign style that helped him come within three points of toppling Cruz — the best a Democrat has done statewide in Texas in years — and a social-media-friendly charisma that captivated liberals all over the U.S.

But there's no overlooking the El Pasoan's herculean ability to muster up campaign cash.

O'Rourke's latest campaign finance report, filed with the Federal Election Commission, showed he hauled in $10.1 million from Oct. 18 to Nov. 26, a period that covers roughly the three weeks before and the three weeks after the Nov. 6 election.

That final push only upped the dollar figure on O'Rourke's Senate campaign record, a sum that came despite his decision to reject donations from political action committees.

O'Rourke instead built his war chest with individual contributions, collecting more than $61 million alone via ActBlue, an online portal that has made it easy for Democrats across the country to make recurring, small-dollar gifts to their favorite candidates.

He also had little trouble spending his bounty, ending the campaign with just $477,000 cash on hand.

Latest Numbers For The 2018 House Election

I think we can now dismiss the idea by some that the 2018 election was not a wave election. The numbers show clearly that the predicted "blue wave" did happen.

The Democrats did flip the House, and actually exceeded the predictions of most pundits. They currently hold 234 seats in the new House to only 199 seats for the Republicans (with two seats yet to be decided). And this was not done by gerrymandering, but by the votes of the people.

Democrats got 59.23 million votes. Republicans got 50.38 million. That means about 9 million more Americans voted for Democrats than voted for Republicans. Democrats got 53.1% of the popular vote, while Republicans got 45.2% -- a margin of 7.9 points (much larger than the 2.1 point margin that Clinton had over Trump in 2016).

Numbers above are from the 2018 House Popular Vote Tracker.

What Americans Think Of The Refugee "Caravan"

These charts are from a new Monmouth University Poll -- done between November 9th and 12th of a national sample of 802 adults, with a margin of error of 3.5 points.

In an effort to instill fear in voters, Donald Trump relentlessly denigrated the refugee caravan hundreds of miles from our southern border. He tried to convince people that the members of the caravan were dangerous people -- composed of gang members and terrorists.

When you look at the two poll questions above, it might seem that he was successful (even though voters rejected the Republicans). About 86% said they had heard about the caravan. And 53% thought it was a threat to the United States (29% a major threat and 24% a minor threat).

But when you look a little deeper in the poll, you see that's not really true. As the charts below show, only 26% thought the caravan should be stopped and sent back, while 70% thought they should be given the opportunity to show they deserved to be let into the country (that they were persecuted and had no criminal record).

In addition, only 38% thought it was at least likely the caravan contained terrorists, while 50% did not think that was likely.

Trump did his best to scare voters, but they aren't as stupid as he thought they were.

Voters Rejected Trump & Want Investigation To Continue

These charts are from a new CBS News / SSRS Poll -- done between November 15th and 18th of a national sample of 1,103 adults, with a 3 point margin of error.

Trump is not going to like those numbers (and will undoubtably label them as "fake"), but the truth is that the last election was a rejection of Trump and his hateful agenda. About 40% of voters said their vote was a rejection of Trump and his policies, while only 14% said their vote was an endorsement of Trump. His job approval has gone down also -- to only 39%.

And if he thought his new Attorney General could derail the Mueller investigation, the public is having none of it. A whopping 72% say Trump should let the investigation continue (including a majority of Republicans). And 52% would like for Congress to protect that investigation.

As Trump prepares to enter his third year, it's not just the House and Mueller he needs to worry about. He has still not won over a majority of the public.

Hispanic Voters Helped Punish GOP In The Midterm Election

Before the election, both Republicans and the media talking heads denigrated the Hispanic vote. They said that Hispanics would not show up to vote in the midterm election, and those that did vote would split their votes between Democrats and Republicans (not giving either party an advantage).

They were wrong on both counts. Hispanic voters showed up in record numbers to vote in the election, and their votes were cast decisively for the Democrats. Hispanic voters helped the Democrats to win a huge advantage in the House of Representatives. And their votes likely helped Democrats flip Senate seats in Arizona and Nevada, and almost do the same in Texas.

While it is true that Hispanics have given Republicans good support in some past elections, that did not happen in this one. About 74% voted for Democrats. Why? The charts above (from the Latino Decisions Election Eve Poll) give us a pretty clear picture of why.

They disapprove of the job Trump is doing by a 39 point margin. About 44% think Trump is a racist and another 33% believe he has negatively harmed minorities. They support DACA by a 76 point margin. By a 59 point margin, they believe Trump's policies will set back gains made by minorities. And by an equal 59 point majority, they believe Trump and the GOP is engaging in toxic rhetoric that will divide the nation.

Those are overwhelmingly bad numbers for the Republicans, and it signals another disaster for the GOP in 2020, when Hispanics will probably vote in even larger numbers.

Hispanics have found their voting voice, and with Trump in charge of the Republican Party (and the GOP base loving his hate talk), that's bad news for the Republican Party.

NOTE -- You can click on each chart to get a larger, and easier read version.

These Election Trends Should Worry Trump (And GOP)

In his New York Times column, Stanley B. Greenberg notes four trends from the recent election. These voting trends gave the Democrats their huge victory, and should be of serious concern for the future -- especially 2020, when they will probably go into the election with Trump at the head of the ticket. Here's what the 2018 election showed:

First of all, Democrats did not win simply because white women with college degrees rebelled against Mr. Trump’s misogyny, sexism and disrespect for women. Nearly every category of women rebelled. . . .

Yes, House Democrats increased their vote margin nationally among white women with at least a four-year degree by 13 points compared with the Clinton-Trump margin in 2016. But Democrats also won 71 percent of millennial women and 54 percent of unmarried white women (who split their votes two years earlier). In 2018, unmarried white women pushed up their vote margin for Democrats by 10 points. In fact, white women without a four-year degree (pollster shorthand for the white working class) raised their vote margin for Democrats by 13 points.

Overall, white women split their vote between Democrats and Republicans, but it is clear which way they are moving. Interestingly, the white college women who were supposed to be the “fuel for this Democratic wave” played a smaller role in the Democrats’ increased 2018 margin than white working class women, because the former were 15 percent of midterm voters and the latter 25 percent. . . .

Second, Mr. Trump and his party maintained their principal base with white working class voters, the shift among women notwithstanding, and Democrats still need to do better. Nonetheless, Democrats got their wave in part because a significant portion of male and female white working class voters abandoned Mr. Trump and his Republican allies.

In 2016, the white working class men that Mr. Trump spoke most forcefully to as the “forgotten Americans” gave him 71 percent of their votes and gave only 23 percent to Hillary Clinton. This year, the Republicans won their votes with a still-impressive margin of 66 to 32 percent. But what was essentially a three-to-one margin was deflated to two-to-one, which affected a lot of races. . . .

Third, Democrats made big gains because Mr. Trump declared war on immigrants — and on multicultural America — and lost. His ugly campaign succeeded in making immigration and the border a voting issue for the Republican base, according to the postelection survey I did with Democracy Corps, which asked those voting Republican why they did. “Open borders” was the top reason given for voting against a Democratic candidate. But it backfired among other voters.

On Election Day, a stunning 54 percent of those who voted said immigrants “strengthen our country.” Mr. Trump’s party lost the national popular vote by seven points, but he lost the debate over whether immigrants are a strength or a burden by 20 points. Mr. Trump got more than half of Republicans to believe immigrants were a burden, but three quarters of Democrats and a large majority of independents concluded that America gains from immigration. . . .

Fourth, Democrats could not have picked up as many House seats as they did in 2018 without raising their share of the vote by four points in the suburbs, which have grown to encompass 50 percent of voters. Mrs. Clinton won many of these districts in 2016, so it was clear that any further shift in the Democrats’ direction would prove consequential. But Democrats made their biggest gains not there, but in the rural parts of the country. That was the shocker.

Democrats cut the Republicans’ margin in rural areas by 13 points, according to the Edison exit poll and by seven points in one by Catalist. Democrats still lost rural America by somewhere between 14 and 18 points so that left Democrats in a pickle there. That had implications for the Senate, but it shouldn’t conceal the fact that Democrats actually made progress in rural areas.

Americans Like The Results Of The 2018 Election

We now know that the Democrats will have a substantial majority in the House in the 116th Congress, and the Republicans will retain a small majority in the Senate. Even with a Republican still in the White House, right-wing control over government has been effectively ended.

What does the public think about the election results? By an 18 point margin, adults are happy about the outcome (and the margin rises to 24 points among registered voters). Adults are also happy that Democrats will control the House of Representatives by a 13 point margin (and registered voters by a 12 point margin).

The only thing they are not happy about is the Republicans continuing control of the Senate. Adults by a 4 point margin (and registered voters by a 7 point margin) are unhappy at that result.

These charts reflect the results of the newest Economist / YouGov Poll -- done between November 11th and 13th of a national sample of 1,500 adults (including 1,284 registered voters), with a 3 point margin of error for adults and a 2.9 point margin of error for registered voters.

116th Senate Will Look Much Like The 115th Senate

ARIZONA Senate Race

FLORIDA Senate Race

If you listened to the cable news talking heads on election night, you might think the Republicans scored a huge victory in the Senate elections -- flipping flipping four Democratic seats while losing only one seat. That would have given them a 54 to 46 majority.

But those talking heads were counting chickens before they were hatched. They were right about three seats on election night. The Republicans flipped three seats (North Dakota, Missouri, and Indiana), while the Democrats flipped one (Nevada).

That left two seats to be decided -- Arizona and Florida. While McSally (R) led in Arizona on election night, as more votes were counted Sinema (D) has surged into the lead by over 32,000 votes. While there are still more votes to be counted, it now looks like the Democrats will flip that seat. That makes it 52 to 47 in favor of the GOP.

Then there's Florida, which is very close. Right now, Scott (R) leads by 12,562 out of more than 8 million votes. That has triggered a recount. If Nelson (D) can scrounge up 13,000 votes in the recount, then the GOP majority in the Senate will be 52 to 48. If not, then the GOP will have a 53 to 47 edge.

Either way, the Senate is going to look a whole lot like it looks currently. The Republicans will have a small edge, but not enough to do everything they want -- especially with the Democrats firmly in control of the House of Representatives.

NOTE -- 2020 could flip the Senate though. While most seats up for grabs were Democratic seats in 2018, the opposite will be true in 2020 (with 22 GOP seats up and only 11 Democratic seats). And those Republicans will have the disadvantage of running with Trump at the top of their ticket.

Voters Reject Trumpism (Need To Finish The Job In 2020)

(Cartoon image is by Bob Englehart at cagle.com.)

Trump would have you believe that the Republicans did great on election day, and it was completely due to him. He has one thing right. The election was about him, and his odious agenda. But the voters soundly rejected Trumpism.

Here's how Robert Reich describes it:

Make no mistake: America has rejected Trumpism.

No one seriously expected the Senate to flip, because Democrats had to defend 26 seats in that chamber, compared with only nine held by Republicans. 

The real battleground was the House, where Democrats had to achieve a net gain of 23 seats to get the 218 needed for a majority. 

They did. 

Trump wasn’t on the ballot but he made the election into a referendum on himself. 

So Americans turned against House Republicans, who should have acted as a check on him but did nothing – in many cases magnifying his vileness.

The nation has repudiated Trump, but do not believe for a moment that our national nightmare is over. 

Trump still occupies the White House and in all likelihood will be there for two more years. 

The Republican Party remains in control of the Senate. 

Fox News is still Trump’s propaganda ministry. (The line between Fox and Trump, already blurred, vanished completely at his last pre-election rally when Fox hosts Sean Hannity and Jeannine Pirro joined him on stage.)

The American people will be subject to more of Trump’s lies and hate, as amplified by Senate Republicans and Fox News. 

Trump can be expected to scapegoat House Democrats for anything that goes wrong. American politics will almost certainly become even meaner, coarser, and uglier. We will remain deeply and angrily divided. 

Most worrisome, America still won’t respond to real threats that continue to grow, which Trump and his enablers have worsened – climate change; the suppression of votes, and foreign intrusions into our elections; the most expensive and least efficient healthcare system in the world; and, not least, widening inequalities of income, wealth, and political power.

America will eventually overcome and reverse Trumpism. The harder challenge will be to reverse the reasons Trump and his Republican lapdogs gained power in the first place. 

Some blame racism and nativism. But these toxins have poisoned America since the founding of the Republic. 

What’s new has been the interaction between them and the long economic slide of tens of millions of working Americans, most of them white and lacking college degrees. 

They used to be the bedrock of the Democratic Party, many of them members of trade unions whose strength in numbers gave them an increasing share of the gains from economic growth. 

Their long economic slide has generated the kind of frustrations that demagogues throughout history have twisted into rage at “them.” 

Meanwhile, most economic gains have gone to the top 1 percent, whose wealth is now greater than the combined wealth of the bottom 90 percent – giving them enough political muscle to demand and get tax cuts, Wall Street bailouts, corporate subsidies, and regulatory rollbacks. These in turn have created even more wealth at the top. 

All were trends before Trump. Yet Democrats failed to reverse them, even though Democrats occupied the White House most of these years (and during four of them controlled both houses of Congress). 

Trump has worsened them by slashing taxes on the wealthy and corporations, whittling back the Affordable Care Act, and loosening restrictions on Wall Street. 

Jobs may be back but they pay squat, especially compared with the rising costs of housing, healthcare, and education. And they’re less secure than ever. One in five is now held by a worker under contract without any unemployment insurance, sick leave, or retirement savings.

Which presumably is why Trump decided to focus the midterms on hate and fear rather than the economy. 

He thereby created a large opening for Democrats aiming for 2020. They can become the party of the bottom 90 percent by creating a multi-racial, multi-ethnic coalition to wrest back control of our economy and democracy.

They would focus on two big things: First, raise the purchasing power of the bottom 90 percent through stronger unions, a larger wage subsidy (starting with a bigger Earned Income Tax Credit), and Medicare for All. 

Second, get big money out of politics through public financing of elections, full disclosure of all sources of political funding, an end to the revolving door between business and government. 

Democrats shouldn’t try moving to the “center.” The center no longer exists because most Americans are no longer on the traditional “right” or “left.” 

The vast majority of Americans are now anti-establishment, and understandably so. 

The practical choice is either Trump’s authoritarian populism backed by the moneyed interests, or a new democratic populism backed by the rest of us. 

The direction couldn’t be clearer. It should be the Democrat’s hour.

Exit Poll: Demographics Of Voting In Texas Senate Race

These charts are from exit polling by CNN in the race for the Senate in Texas. It shows the percentage of the vote by each demographic group, and the percentage of that groups voting for O'Rourke (D) or Cruz (R).

I found the last chart pretty interesting. It seems that voters born in Texas had a majority voting for O'Rourke, while voters born elsewhere who moved to Texas voted in the majority for Cruz. That's just the opposite of what I think most people would have thought.

Voters Gave Trump An Embarrassing Beating Last Tuesday

(This caricature of Trump is by DonkeyHotey.)

After the election last Tuesday, Donald Trump tried to claim it had been a good day for him. He even went so far as to claim that the people he "embraced" won, while those who had distanced themselves from him had lost. Of course, that was just more of his "alternative facts" (LIES).

Either in person at rallies, or by twitter, Trump endorsed 55 Republican candidates -- and 39 of them lost their races (70.9%). And if Sinema hangs on to win in Arizona over Trump-backed McSally, that will climb to 40 who lost (72.7%).

The truth is the voters took him out behind the woodshed and gave him the spanking of his life.

Here's part of how ex-Republican congressman Joe Scarborough describes it in The Washington Post:

President Trump lost. And it was not even close.

On Tuesday, the president and his allies paid a high political price for their preposterous claims about caravans filled with leprosy, Middle Eastern terrorists, Hispanic “breeders” and gang invaders. Those lies cost the hobbled president every bit as much as his vicious attacks on the free press and his foul campaign calls to imprison political adversaries. Despite all claims to the contrary, Trump Republicans faced a bitter reckoning at the polls in dozens of congressional races and hundreds of legislative battles across the United States.

Trumpism proved to be so politically toxic that Republicans likely took their worst shellacking in U.S. House races since the darkest days of Watergate. Trump Republicans lost at least 30 seats in Congress and took a beating nationally. In state legislative races, the tally was even worse, with more than 300 Republican legislators watching their political careers get washed away by the blue wave. . . .

If enough of the remaining undecided races break their way, Democrats could soon control a larger majority in the House than Republican Dennis Hastert ever did during his eight years as speaker. Trump’s sagging fortunes also allowed Democrats to pick up more governorships than either party had done since the GOP landslide of 1994.

Republicans who believed Trump would never pay a price for his misogyny, you were wrong. Historically wrong. When the new Congress is sworn in, more than 100 women will become elected members of the People’s House. That will be the first time in history that so many women will have a hand in running the country’s government, and they will direct our future away from Trump’s dystopian vision. Doesn’t that seem only fitting since their success is owed in part to Trump’s odious attitude toward women? . . .

It is long past time that Republicans in Congress begin worrying more about their country’s well-being than fretting over being on the wrong side of one of Trump’s childish tweets. It is also past time for Republicans to understand that their fear of Trump only enabled the president to act on his worst instincts and in turn fueled their party’s decline. The collective weight of Charlottesville, Paul Manafort, Michael Flynn, Scott Pruitt, the president’s multitude of lies, his thoughtless cruelty, his failed Muslim ban, West Wing chaos, White House corruption and gross incompetence on the international stage was too much for Trump’s congressional quislings and political allies to overcome. Voters decided on Tuesday that if their representatives would not provide a check on the president’s worst excesses, they would use their vote to do it themselves.

When the dust finally cleared, Trump had lost. And it was not even close.