New Poll Has Abbott Leading O'Rourke By Only 2 Points

The chart reflects the results of the Beacon Research Poll -- done between October 15th and 19th of 1,125 Texas voters who say they will definitely vote. The margin of error is 2.8 points.
 

Poll Of Likely Voters Gives Abbott A Big Lead In Texas

This chart reflects the results of the Texas Politics Project at University of Texas Poll -- done between October 7th and 17th of 883 likely Texas voters, with a 3.3 point margin of error.

The poll only considers likely voters (those voting in every election the last 2-3 years). With a large turnout (containing many new voters and random voters) the result could be very different.

New Poll Has O'Rourke Trailing Abbott By Only 5 Points

These charts are from the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs / YouGov Poll -- done between June 27th and July 7th of 1,169 registered Texas voters, with a 2.9 point margin of error.

NOTE -- Charts 2-5 contain only "likely voters". 

O'Rourke Is Within 6 Points Of Abbott In Texas

 

The chart above reflects the results of the recent University of Texas / Texas Tribune Poll -- done between June 16th and 24th of a sample of 1,200 registered voters in Texas, with a 2.89 point margin of error.

Texas Lyceum Poll Shows A Close Race For Texas Governor

The chart above reflects to results of a recent Texas Lyceum Poll -- done between March 11th and 20th of a statewide sample of 1,000 Texas adults, with a 2.83 point margin of error.

It shows the race for the governor of Texas is very close between Republican Greg Abbott (42%) and Democrat Beto O'Rourke (40%). That two point difference is within the poll's margin of error.

New Poll Has Beto Trailing By 10 Points In Texas

 

The chart above is from the University of Texas / Texas Politics Project Poll -- done between January 28th and February 7th of a statewide sample of 1,200 registered Texas voters, with a 2.83 point margin of error.

It shows Beto O'Rourke trailing Greg Abbott by 10 points (37% to 47%) in the governor race.

Recent Poll Shows O'Rourke / Abbott In Virtual Dead Heat

 

The charts above are from the Rice University / Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation Poll -- done between October 14th and 27th of a sample of 1,402 registered voters in Texas. It shows Democrat Beto O'Rourke trailing Republican Governor Greg Abbott by only 1 point. I didn't see any margin of error, but it has to be more than 1 point, meaning the poll has the two in a virtual dead heat.

New Poll Has Abbott & O'Rourke In A Dead Heat In Texas

 The charts above are from the new Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation Poll -- done between October 14th and 27th of a statewide sample of 1,402 registered Texas voters, with a 2.6 point margin of error.

Texans Not Yet Enamored With Any Candidate For Governor

 

The charts above reflect the results of a new Quinnipiac University Poll -- done between June 15th and 21st of a sample of 1,099 registered voters in Texas. The poll has a 3 point margin of error.

Texas has it's election for governor in the off-year for presidential elections. That means the next gubernatorial election will be in 2022. So far, three names have been mentioned as possible candidates in that election -- Gov. Greg Abbott (Republican), former Rep. Beto O'Rourke (Democrat), and actor Matthew McConaughey (party unknown).

So far, Texas voters are not enamored with any of the three. As the charts show, none of them currently have majority support.

Elizabeth Warren Takes The Lead In Delegate-Rich California

The chart above is from the UC Berkley Institute of Governmental Studies Poll -- done between September 13th and 18th of 2,272 registered voters in California likely to vote in the state's Democratic primary. The margin of error is 3 points.

In the last few days, I have posted polls that show Elizabeth Warren has taken the lead in Iowa and New Hampshire. Now this poll shows she has done the same in California. California is also an early state for 2020 -- voting on March 3rd with a bevy of other states.

Warren has the support of 29% of California Democrats/Leaners, while Biden has 22% and Sanders has 19%. They are followed by Harris with 8%, Buttigieg with 6%, and O'Rourke with 3%.

Warren has gained 11 points since this same poll was done in June. Biden has neither gained nor lost support, and Sanders has gained 2 points. The biggest losers are Harris (who has lost 5 points) and Buttigieg (who has lost 4 points). O'Rourke has neither gained nor lost points.

Favorable And Unfavorable Ratings Of Leading Candidates

These charts reflect the results of the latest Economist / YouGov Poll -- done between August 17th and 20th of a national sample of 1,500 adults (including 1,111 registered voters). The margin of error for adults is 2.6 points, and for registered voters is 3 points.

The survey did not ask who the respondents would support or who they would vote for. They just asked about likability -- whether they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the candidates.

Donald Trump had the highest unfavorable ratings -- 52% among adults and 54% among registered voters. He also had the highest favorable rating among adults.

Elizabeth Warren had the highest favorable rating among registered voters at 45%, and she was the only candidate that did not score higher on unfavorability than favorability. She was even on both with adults (39%), and had a 3 point edge among registered voters (45% to 42%).

Beto Is WRONG - The Nominee Must Support All Democrats

Beto O'Rourke was one of several Democrats I was considering supporting for the 2020 presidential nomination. Unfortunately, that is no longer true. His recent statement in New Hampshire has me upset, and I can no longer consider supporting him.

During a house party in Lebanon (New Hampshire), Beto was asked if he would support every candidate of the Democratic Party. His answer was extremely disappointing. He refused to pledge to support every Democratic candidate, saying:

"I can't take a pledge to support every single Democrat in the country. I need to know about them first, right? Would you want me to make a blanket commitment about people I know nothing about, who I've never met?"

That is unacceptable. The answer to his question is YES, I want you to make a blanket commitment to support every Democrat -- whether you know them or not.

Here's why I want that commitment:

* The presidential nominee is the leader of the party. How can the party's leader refuse to support any candidate of the party?

* Having a Democratic president is not enough. Nothing will be accomplished unless Democrats also control both houses of Congress.

* Every Democrat on the ballot (whether a progressive, liberal, moderate, or conservative) is better than any Republican on the ballot. Even a conservative Democrat will vote with the party much or most of the time. No Republican will do that at all.

Democrats already have a problem with some candidates requiring a purity test for Democratic candidates (Bernie Sanders, Tulsi Gabbard). We don't need our nominee supporting Republicans because they are friends or he doesn't know the Democrat running.

Beto needs to decide -- is he a Democrat or not?

Arizona Could Be In Play In 2020 (At Least For Biden)

The chart above reflects the results of a new OH Predictive Insights Poll. It was done on May 1st and 2nd of 600 likely general election voters in Arizona, and has a margin of error of 4 points.

Arizona is a fairly reliable state for Republicans. It has voted for the Republican presidential candidate in the last five presidential election. But that could change in 2020.

This poll shows that there is one Democrat that could win Arizona right now -- Joe Biden. Biden leads Trump by 5 points.

Other Democrats don't do so well, and none come within the margin of error. Elizabeth Warren trails by 5 points and Beto O’Rourke trails by 6 points. Kamala Harris, Bernie Sanders, and Pete Buttigieg all trail by 9 points.

Could This Healthcare Claim By Beto Possibly Be True?

A couple of weeks ago, Beto O'Rourke (Democratic candidate for presidential nomination) made a rather shocking claim. He said the infant mortality rate between Whites and Blacks in the U.S. us currently worse than it was in 1850.

Could that possibly be true? Would the giant leaps in health care made since 1850 have narrowed that gap? Sadly, No. O'Rourke's statement is TRUE! While the infant mortality has significantly improved for everyone since 1850, the rate between Whites and Blacks has gotten worse.

The good folks at PolitiFact decided to check on Beto's statement. Here is what they said:

O’Rourke’s statement is deeply grounded. Academic studies lead to estimates that in 1850, live-born black babies were 1.6 times more likely to die in their first year than white ones. The latest racial infant mortality statistics are from 2016 - not 2019 as O’Rourke suggests. They show blacks were 2.3 times more likely to die in infancy than whites.

This is inexcusable. And it has a cause -- institutional racism. Racism continues to be too big a factor in our institutional systems -- not only our educational, justice, and political systems, but evidently, also our medical care system.

This could be fixed. We could have true equality for everyone in this country. But too many Whites cling to their privilege. Ignorantly, they seem to believe that granting equal rights to everyone will somehow take rights away from them. They are wrong, and their illogical beliefs make the country worse for everyone.

Beto Is Running (Raising The Number To 15 Candidates)

Former Texas representative Beto O'Rourke made it official on Thursday morning. He is officially running for the presidential nomination of the Democratic Party in 2020.

He joins 14 other candidates -- Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, Kristen Gillibrand, Amy Klobuchar, Julian Castro, Jay Inslee, John Hickenlooper, Pete Buttigieg, John Delaney, Andrew Yang, Marianne Williamson, Tulsi Gabbard, and Bernie Sanders.

Here is the e-mail Beto sent to Democrats:

I write to ask you to join me in a campaign to serve this country as the next President of the United States.

At this moment of truth — at this moment where we could make or break our democracy, where we will decide the fate of generations to come on this planet — we must all ask what each of us can give to this country and to the people who will inherit the consequences of our choices.

Amy and I have decided that running to serve America as president is the best way for us to do our part, understanding that we have an historic opportunity to join with millions of our fellow Americans at a time like no other.

The challenges we face are the greatest in living memory. The connected crises in our economy, our democracy and our climate will either consume us or they will afford us the opportunity to demonstrate our resolve, our creativity and our courage.

In other words, this moment of peril produces what is perhaps our greatest moment of promise. We can have a government that serves people instead of corporations. We can invest in the dignity of those working and those seeking work, no matter their gender, race or background. We can guarantee high quality health care to every single American. We can remind ourselves that if immigration is a problem, it’s a great one to have, and ensure that we create lawful paths to enter the country to work, to join family, to flee persecution. We can achieve real justice reform and confront the hard truths of slavery, segregation and suppression. We can listen to and lift up rural communities. We can restore American leadership, find peaceful solutions to global challenges, and end decades-long wars while delivering for every woman and man who has served in them. And we can unleash the ingenuity and political will of millions of Americans to meet the existential threat of climate change before it’s too late.

No one candidate or president, no matter how tough or talented or experienced, can meet these challenges on their own. Only this country can do that, and only if we build a movement that includes all of us – not just to vote and volunteer, but to understand that for democracy to flourish and meet these challenges, it is an everyday responsibility, one that doesn’t end when the ballots are counted.

We saw the truth of that in Texas over the last two years - people from all walks of life, every part of the state, coming together in record numbers, creating something greater and more powerful than the sum of the people involved. I saw firsthand how the purpose and function that we all crave can be found in serving others and serving this country.

This campaign will be positive.  We will define ourselves by what we want to achieve and accomplish for America.  It will be animated by an ambition for the country that recognizes that the challenges we face will only be overcome by lifting each other up; that the opportunities before us will only be realized by overcoming the differences between us — of party, of geography, of race, of gender, of faith — before they define us forever.

We seek the Democratic nomination by listening to and learning from the people we wish to serve. We are running a campaign for everyone. That’s why, wherever you are in the United States — from Alaska to Puerto Rico — I want you to be part of this. I want this to be your campaign. A campaign by all of us for all of us.

In the coming days I will travel to introduce myself to my fellow Americans and to listen to the people I meet. In those conversations I want to discuss how we can bring the power and ingenuity of the American people to bear on the challenges we face.

On March 30th we will officially kick off this campaign in my hometown of El Paso. I want you to be there with me then if you can. I’m also asking you to help organize others in your community to make sure that we build the greatest grassroots campaign this country has ever seen. No PACs, just people.

There’s more to come, but I want to leave you with this:

The only way to live up to the promise of this country at this moment of maximum peril and maximum potential is to give it our all and to give it for all of us. We are now, more than ever, the last best hope of Earth. Let’s show ourselves and those who succeed us in this great country what we are made of and what we can do.

If you are ready to be part of this effort, please make a donation to help us kick off our campaign the right way.

Beto

O'Rourke: End Pot Prohibition & Reform Justice System

Former Democratic Rep. Beto O'Rourke (pictured) has not yet announced whether he will run for president or not, but he did recently stake out an important policy position -- one that should appeal to most Democrats.

O'Rourke says our criminal justice system is unfair. the has offered several suggestions on how to reform that system -- including ending the federal prohibition on marijuana.

Here is the e-mail he sent outlining the reforms he wants. They make a lot of sense to me.

It’s unacceptable that our country has the world’s largest prison population, disproportionately comprised of people of color. One-third of that prison population is there for nonviolent drug crimes, and though we know that people of all races use illegal drugs at roughly the same rate, some are being locked away for it more than others. 

Many have called this part of the New Jim Crow, and for good reason.

One in four black children have had a parent in the criminal justice system, compared to just four percent of white children. That rate is nearly two times what it was in the 1980s. And it begins with a school-to-prison pipeline that starts as early as kindergarten, where a black child is four to five times as likely to be suspended or expelled as a white child.

I am more convinced than ever that we can and must build a criminal justice system that is more fair and that urgently puts our country closer to the words written above the highest court in our land: equal justice under law.

This is how I propose we do it.

First, we need to end the failed war on drugs that has long been a war on people, waged on some people over other people. Who is going to be the last man — more likely than not a black man — to languish behind bars for possessing or using marijuana when it is legal in some form in more than half of the states in this country? We should end the federal prohibition on marijuana and expunge the records of those who were locked away for possessing it, ensuring that they can get work, finish their education, contribute to the greatness of this country.

Second, we end the broken system of cash bail that punishes people for being poor. This is a tactic that wastes resources on incarcerating those who are not a threat to anyone, not a flight risk, not likely to be repeat offenders. In the Harris County Jail alone, it’s estimated that 500 to 600 of the inmates at any given time fit this description. And that's not an outlier -- 75% of people in Texas jails have not been convicted of any crime but many can't afford bail. 

Third, we should eliminate private, for-profit prisons from our justice system to ensure we're always putting people before profits. Locking someone up is a power that should be reserved for our government -- the people, not outsourced to corporations that have the perverse incentive of getting more men and women behind bars so that there are more profits for their shareholders.

Fourth, we must stop using mandatory minimum sentencing for non-violent drug offenses — a practice that costs taxpayers dearly and destroys lives in the process by locking up people who could safely re-enter society. And we replace this practice with policies that begin treating addiction like the public health concern it is. 

Finally, we should provide meaningful reentry to help people who have been incarcerated resume their lives and contribute to their full potential. That starts with strong rehabilitation services, counseling and access to preventative health care. It continues by banning the box on job applications so those formerly incarcerated can work and pay taxes, returning drivers licenses so they can get to that place of employment, allowing them to apply for loans that can unlock skills trainings, and ensuring their constitutional right to participate in civic life by voting is protected.

As a congressman, I worked with colleagues across the aisle to introduce legislation that aims to do these things, to achieve real reforms. I know we can get this done but only if we all work towards these goals together.

At the end of the day, this is about ensuring that every single one of us can live to our full potential and contribute to our maximum capacity. Giving low-level offenders a second chance no matter the color of their skin or the economic status they hold can create opportunity for all of us.

It will help build a future that is more just, more fair, and more prosperous for every single person in this state and this country.

Would O'Rourke Make A Better Senate Candidate In 2020?

Former Rep. Beto O'Rourke came within 3 points of beating Ted Cruz in the 2018 Texas senate race (51% to 48%). That result shocked many people, and it has caused much buzz about O'Rourke's political future.

Many are talking about a possible run for the presidency in 2020, and polls have shown that (even though he has not said he would run) he finishes well ahead of several candidates that have declared. He usually posts numbers that rival those of Kamala Harris or Elizabeth Warren (the two declared candidates that poll the best), and better than Klobuchar, Booker, Gillibrand, Castro, and others already in the race.

But would a presidential run be his best bet? Maybe not. There has also been talk of him running against John Cornyn for the Senate in 2020, and Cornyn may be vulnerable. Cornyn's job approval numbers tend to be lower than those of Cruz -- and a recent poll shows O'Rourke would start out nearly even with Cornyn (he had to come from far behind when he took on Cruz, and nearly won)>

The poll is one done by Public Policy Polling. They surveyed 743 registered voters in Texas on February 13th and 14th, and their poll had a margin of error of 3.6 points. The results are shown in the chart below.

Right now, O'Rourke would only trail Cornyn by 2 points (47% to 45%, with 8% unsure). That margin is within the poll's margin of error. Those are amazing numbers for a Democrat in Texas, and they show that O'Rourke would have a really good chance of unseating Cornyn.

That might be a better path for O'Rourke. The Democratic presidential nominating race is going to be a mess with. It already has 11 candidates, and that could swell by 6 to 10 more. It will be interesting to see what choice O'Rourke will make.

Bernie Sanders Finished A Poor 5th In Liberal Straw Poll

The liberal website Daily Kos recently conducted a straw poll of its readers. They asked those readers who they currently support for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination. The results are above, and surprisingly, Bernie Sanders finished a poor fifth with only 11% support -- trailing Elizabeth Warren (22%), Beto O'Rourke (15%), Kamala Harris (14%), and Joe Biden (14%).

This was not a scientific poll. It was just a straw poll to gauge the feelings of the progressive wing of the party. But it shows that Sanders might be in trouble if he decides to run for the nomination again. In all of the Daily Kos straw polls done for the 2016 campaign, Sanders had finished in first place over Hillary Clinton (even though Clinton won the votes of most Democrats).

Has Sanders chance at the Democratic nomination faded? It looks like that may be true. It could be because there are more candidates for progressives to support this time around. Warren, O'Rourke, Harris, and others have credible progressive credentials.

O'Malley Says No To Presidential Run - Endorses O'Rourke

(These photos are from Wikipedia. The O'Malley photo is by Gage Skidmore. The O'Rouke photo is the official photo from his time in the U.S. House.)

Martin O'Malley, the former governor of Maryland, is a good Democrat. He ran for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2016, and some thought he might toss his hat in the ring again in the 2020 race.

That's not going to happen. In a guest column in The Des Moines Register, O'Malley made it clear he is not going to run this time. Then he went further and endorsed a possible candidate -- Beto O'Rourke.

Here is what O'Malley wrote:

I will not be running for president in 2020, but I hope Beto O’Rourke does. And this is why.

In 2016, my long-shot presidential candidacy found its flame extinguished between a rock and an angry place in my own party. America wasn’t in the mood for new leadership. We were in a mood of anger, rage and retribution. And in this mood, Donald Trump’s candidacy rose. It was good for ratings, and good for the Russians; but, bad for America. And, we got what we got.

But now, there is a different mood in our nation. People are looking for a new leader who can bring us together. They are looking for a unifier and a healer. They are looking for a leader of principle, and they are now looking for a fearless vision.

Yes, the anxieties about the future are higher than ever.  Our whole world — and our country with it — is experiencing the growing pains of a third Industrial Revolution. And this one will change the future of work as much as the last two. Perhaps, even more so.

Our parents and grandparents faced rapid change and security threats in their own day. But they didn’t try to build a wall around their country. They didn’t shut down their national government, or turn their backs on one another.

Instead, they faced a changing future head-on. They made their children and grandchildren winners in that changing world rather than its victims. And so too, must we.

This courage to face change — with truth about ourselves and compassion for one another — is a big part of what it means to be an American. Tapping into this innate American quality is the key to moving our country forward.

I know this because over the past two years, I’ve traveled to over 30 states to help Democratic candidates at every level of government. Whether it was Iowa or New Hampshire, Washington state or Georgia, voters were clearly longing for new leadership.

These leaders include Lucy McBath, a mom who lost her son to gun violence, and responded with a determination to save other children's lives by winning a seat in Georgia’s 6th Congressional District. They include Allison Ikley-Freeman, a social worker and lesbian mother of two, who successfully flipped a Trump +40 state senate seat in Oklahoma.

I had the honor of campaigning with both of these heroes, and over 120 other courageous Democrats across our country in the 2018 midterms. They spoke to the goodness within us as a people. And they spoke with a fearlessness about the future we can build together.

All of which brings me to Beto O’Rourke.

In his courageous run for U.S. Senate in Texas, O’Rourke ran a disciplined and principled campaign that also managed to be raw, authentic, and real. He spoke to the American values of honesty, compassion for one another, and courage in the face of a rapidly changing future. These are the American values alive and well in the hearts of our young people. These are the values which tell us where America is headed. And with these values, O’Rourke very nearly defeated the incumbent senator and Republican runner-up for president — in Texas.

The fearless vision and unifying message which brought people together in Texas also sparked imaginations all across our country. And, I believe, will again — if Beto O’Rourke runs for president.

The challenges we face will not solve themselves. Building an economy that works for all of us, reversing climate change, passing immigration reform — they all require leadership. O’Rourke has the wisdom to listen, the courage to lead, and a rock-solid faith in the powerful goodness of our nation.  Because he is of a new generation, O’Rourke understands that a new way of governing — with openness, transparency, and performance — is called for to tackle our problems in the Information Age. And because he is from a border state, O’Rourke understands the enduring symbol of our country is not the barbed wire fence, it is the Statue of Liberty.

So, while I will not be running in 2020, I would like to put my faith and trust in a fearless American future — an American future large enough for all of our children.  Like so many other Americans, I believe we need new leadership to make that future a reality. And, I believe the new leader who can best bring us together and turn us around to create that better American future, is Beto O’Rourke.

Beto's Final Senate Fundraising Amount Tops $80 Million

Beto O'Rourke topped Ted Cruz in fundraising for seven of the eight fundraising periods -- and wound up raising more than twice what Cruz raised. This was remarkable considering O'Rourke accepted no money from PAC's (only from individual donors), while Cruz did get PAC money.

Here's part of what Tom Benning reported in the Dallas Morning News:

Rep. Beto O'Rourke ended up raising an astonishing $80 million in his failed bid to unseat Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, putting an exclamation point on the El Paso Democrat's record-setting Senate fundraising haul.

The final tally, released late Thursday, is sure to intensify speculation that O'Rourke could mount a campaign in 2020 against Republican President Donald Trump.

Despite his relatively lean political resume, O'Rourke has received perhaps the most buzz of any potential Democratic contender for the White House. Even former President Barack Obama hailed him last month, right after the two reportedly met at Obama's office in D.C.

Much of the attention on O'Rourke has focused on a frenetic campaign style that helped him come within three points of toppling Cruz — the best a Democrat has done statewide in Texas in years — and a social-media-friendly charisma that captivated liberals all over the U.S.

But there's no overlooking the El Pasoan's herculean ability to muster up campaign cash.

O'Rourke's latest campaign finance report, filed with the Federal Election Commission, showed he hauled in $10.1 million from Oct. 18 to Nov. 26, a period that covers roughly the three weeks before and the three weeks after the Nov. 6 election.

That final push only upped the dollar figure on O'Rourke's Senate campaign record, a sum that came despite his decision to reject donations from political action committees.

O'Rourke instead built his war chest with individual contributions, collecting more than $61 million alone via ActBlue, an online portal that has made it easy for Democrats across the country to make recurring, small-dollar gifts to their favorite candidates.

He also had little trouble spending his bounty, ending the campaign with just $477,000 cash on hand.