Showing posts with label oil wars. Show all posts
Showing posts with label oil wars. Show all posts

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

GOP Economics: Keep on Doing Whatever Makes You Sick!

You can't understand the Bush legacy until you come to grips with the GOP mentality best summed up thus: just keep repeating failed strategies, just keep on doing whatever makes you sick, just keep on drinking from the poisoned well.
Only this president could look out over a vista of 3,008 dead and 22,834 wounded in Iraq, and finally say, “Where mistakes have been made, the responsibility rests with me” — only to follow that by proposing to repeat the identical mistake ... in Iran.

--Keith Olbermann

It's not only in Iraq that the GOP hitched its wagon to a falling star. "It's the economy stupid". Though every GOP tax cut since 1982 are causally connected with huge deficits, slow growth and obscene inequalities, the GOP is on the stump for tax cuts. Naomi Klein reports that "the fix is in" and the National Association of Manufacturers must be ecstatic to know that whomever the GOP nominates, he will put more tax cuts at the top of "to do" list. Given Ronald Reagan's record and given the Chinese origin of the crap I find in Wal-Mart, I am somewhat surprised to learn that there remains in this country enough "manufacturers" to make up an association!

A GOP sacred word is "stimulus" and people naively support them expecting a trickle down effect which never comes. Dogs are trained by giving them a treat at the end of a trick. It is doubtful that a dog will jump through the hoop if there is nothing on the other side. Humans and especially the GOP inclined are not nearly so smart. Year after tiresome year, those susceptible to GOP propaganda will fall for the same old GOP bullshit: let's give business a "stimulus" and wait for the trickle down that never comes. I am weary of posting, year after year, the cold hard stats from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (primarily) that prove conclusively that there has never been a "trickle down" effect from any of those sacred GOP stimuli. GOP "stimuli" never work because they are always inequitable. They never reach nor benefit the people whose work and purchases drive the economy. GOP "stimuli" stop trickling at the bottom of an increasingly tiny elite who simply squirrel them away in ways that never trickle down.

It was Nixon who turned Republicans into "liberals". When he acceded to a significant deficit, Nixon famously said "We are all Keynesians now!" That's not entirely true. Keynes never proposed that tax cuts that would benefit only the very wealthy. Keynes, like every real economist, subscribed to the "labor theory of value". That is most certainly the reason he is reviled by the American right wing. The right wing not only hates labor as a class, it associates the "labor theory of value" with Karl Marx, though every other reputable economist had already done so. Marx was not all that revolutionary.
The real price of everything, what everything really costs to the man who wants to acquire it, is the toil and trouble of acquiring it.... Labour was the first price, the original purchase-money that was paid for all things.

--Adam Smith, Wealth of Nations

To this day, Adam Smith, of "invisible hand" fame, is the guardian angel of conservative economics. Since that time Ricardo articulated the most clear-cut, effective statement of the labor theory in Principles of Political Economy and Taxation
The produce of the earth—all that is derived from its surface by the united application of labour, machinery, and capital, is divided among three classes of the community; namely, the proprietor of the land, the owner of the stock or capital necessary for its cultivation, and the labourers by whose industry it is cultivated.

...

The value of a commodity, or the quantity of any other commodity for which it will exchange, depends on the relative quantity of labour which is necessary for its production, and not as the greater or less compensation which is paid for that labour.

-David Ricardo, The Principles of Political Economy and Taxation

Ricardo eliminated the confusion between labor, a source of exchange-value, and wages, as a component of price. Modern conservatives will never forgive Ricardo his having been cited by Karl Marx, the American right wing's boogie man of choice for some 150 years.
Insofar as modern socialism, no matter of what tendency, starts out from bourgeois political economy, it almost without exception takes up the Ricardian theory of value. The two propositions which Ricardo proclaimed in 1817 right at the beginning of his Principles, 1) that the value of any commodity is purely and solely determined by the quantity of labour required for its production, and 2) that the product of the entire social labor is divided among the three classes: landowners (rent), capitalists (profit), and workers (wages)--these two propositions had ever since 1821 been utilized in England for socialist conclusions, and in part with such pointedness and resolution that this literature, which had then almost been forgotten and was to a large extent only rediscovered by Marx, remained surpassed until the appearance of Capital.

--Statement of the Classical Labor Theory of Value

American capitalists, otherwise called "robber barons", never really subscribed to "laissez-faire" economics. Rather, they preferred monopoly if they could pull one off or, failing that, oligopoly.

Bush's failures in Iraq as well as his numerous calamities in the economic sphere are bound up with one another as well as with his every other failure. The panoply of right wing calamities cannot be considered in isolation. All parts make up a gestalt, a whole of many parts --lies, myths, tortured logic, simplistic homilies, slogans, platitudes, claptrap, propaganda, and class warfare. The Iraq quagmire, for example, is not merely a war of naked aggression, it is an economic vampire sucks the life out of the US economy, harming the middle and lower income class most. Bush is unconcerned. His job has been to make Iraq safe for the robber barons of big oil. Bush proposes to do it with permanent bases. Trickle down theory will be disproved yet again. The oil profits that will ensue will only enrich the Dick Cheneys of this word. The "people" will continue to pay higher prices at the pump, they will continue to lose ground vis a vis the upper ten percent of the upper 20 percent (the upper quintile). That's why we fought the war.

Should --God forbid --another Republican steal the White House, he will go back to well. Indeed, the GOP candidates are on the stump preaching the same old crap. Nothing, absolutely nothing has been learned from the Bush debacle. Republican remorse is akin to crocodile tears. Republican are, indeed, sorry; they are sorry that Bush got caught. They are sorry that the failures and inadequacies of right wing economics have been laid bare.
But of all the cynical scrambles to package pro-business cash grabs as "economic stimulus," the prize has to go to Lawrence B. Lindsey, formerly President Bush's assistant for economic policy and his advisor during the 2001 recession. Lindsey's plan is to solve a crisis set off by bad lending by extending lots more questionable credit. "One of the easiest things to do would be to allow manufacturers and retailers" — notably Wal-Mart — "to open their own financial institutions, through which they could borrow and lend money," he wrote recently in the Wall Street Journal.

--Naomi Klein, Why the Right loves a disaster

Klien has picked up the trail, researching "a little-explored area of economic history". She is interested in how manufactured "crises" are exploited by the right wing and, in fact, have "paved the way for the march of the right-wing economic revolution across the globe." Social Security, as I have pointed out repeatedly, is a case in point. The GOP will break Social Security in order to "fix" it. But the fix will enrich only Wall Street Insiders and leave retirees worse off. Even now lemmings in the financial establishment are demanding that because Bush's deficits are so huge, "spending" on Social Security will have be cut dramatically. I wonder --does this include the benefits already being paid to current recipients? If so, how is this justified morally? Or --is it a threat to those who, because of GOP lies and fiscal incompetence, have only Social Security to look forward to?

Thanks to the Bush's immoral blunder in Iraq, this issue will loom large. Bush, if he indeed leaves the White House, will leave the nation this horrible legacy, a stench that will befoul the air and hang around, like an unwelcome, unkempt guest who moves in, stays, and refuses to just go away. Down and Out in Beverly Hills comes to mind.

Addendum: Bush's Legacy in Official Stats (you might want a drink before you look at this)

Tuesday, November 27, 2007

Oil Traders Seize Control of World Oil Prices

A shadowy cabal of international "oil traders" have seized control of the world's markets and the price of oil. That's not the opinion of a crazed "conspiracy theorist". It is the informed opinion of an expert market analyst interviewed by the prestigious Foreign Policy magazine.

As oil reached $100 recently, Foreign Policy magazine asked the question: who stole the oil? Fadel Gheit, one of Wall Street's top energy analysts, believes that the world price of oil is no longer tied to the market. In other words, powerful international traders have seized control of the world's primary source of energy.
I truly believe that major investment banks and a large number of very high-risk-taking financial players have seized control of the oil markets, especially in the last six months. During that time, oil prices moved in one direction and market fundamentals really moved sideways or even lowered. Demand has slowed down significantly. We have seen all kinds of indications that we are reaching a breaking point here. We’ve seen what happened to gasoline margins on the West Coast; they’ve dropped to an almost 18-year low. All this is an indication that something is wrong with the system, that supply and demand fundamentals do not justify the current price. But if the current price is based on speculation, there is no limit to how high oil prices can go. Basically, as long as there is somebody willing to bid higher, the price of the commodity will move higher.

-Fadel Gheith, Seven Questions: The Price of Fear, Foreign Policy
Oil, of course, was rising concurrent with the dollar's fall. OPEC's take was simply the rise in oil offset their own dollar losses in the currency markets. It was in middle October that many analysts had already written that many investors trying to hedge their dollar losses amid predictions that another cut in US interest rates would drive the buck even lower, and oil even higher. Gheith is probably correct about oil. The question then is: qui bono? Who benefits most from both the dollar's fall and the rise of oil?

In October, crude had already reached an historic high above $80 a barrel. In the same breath analysts pointed to the "weakening dollar" and inflation. Inflation of course, threatens consumer spending, even cheap Chinese imports from Wal-Mart. The future is now. Or --is it?
To my knowledge, there is no oil shortage. Any willing buyers will not have a problem finding oil. Global inventories are over 4 billion barrels. In simple math, that is the equivalent of all the oil produced in the Middle East for six months. So, the fear premium, in my view, is totally exaggerated; it’s not justified by logic or market fundamentals.

--Fadel Gheith, Seven Questions: The Price of Fear, Foreign Policy
I find it incredibly interesting that only those oil barons, typified by Dick Cheney's Energy Task Force, are precisely the group fingered by Gheith as benefiting most from the spread. In other words, US war hawks have probably lost nothing from the dollar's fall that hasn't been made up with the sale of oil.
... it’s very difficult to quantify fear. But that is the psychological factor, in my view, that is bringing oil prices to these unprecedented levels. For instance, I don’t believe that Iran is going to cut oil exports, because Iran needs the revenue more than the world needs Iran’s oil. We have to be logical in assessing the risk. And obviously, financial players want to exaggerate the situation so that the risk premium increases and they make more money.

--Fadel Gheith, Seven Questions: The Price of Fear, Foreign Policy
Bush created the task force in his second week in office. Officially known as the National Energy Policy Development Group, it was charged with developing a national energy policy. When documents related to their secret meetings were, at last, released, it was clear that the "Energy Task Force" had simply carved up the Middle East, just as surely as Hitler had intended to carve up the resources of Europe and Russia.

I smell a rat...or just the evil stench associated with Bush's oil regime?








Iraq War

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Tuesday, October 23, 2007

New Study: Peak Oil is Here, Experts Predict "extreme shortages, wars, and social breakdown"

The peak of world oil production, long predicted by Houston geo-physicist M. King Hubbert, is here. A recent study for the German-based Energy Watch Group states that oil production has peaked and predicts production continuing to fall by 50% by the year 2030. It's a graphic picture of 'extreme shortages" leading to wars and social breakdown.
The difficulties of expanding oil production can also be demonstrated by looking at the performance of the big international oil companies. In aggregate, they were not able to increase their production in the last ten years, despite an unprecedented rise in oil prices.

--Crude Oil: The Supply Outlock, Report to the Energy Watch Group, October 2007

In 1956, geophysicist, M. King Hubbert, working at the Shell research lab in Houston, TX predicted a peak in US oil production which he thought might happen in the 1970's. He might have been correct had not "secondary recovery" breathed new but temporary life in the old, often abandoned oil fields that I grew up with in West Texas.
The use of technology, as discussed, will not change the overall picture. The decline of the oil production in the USA since 1970 could not be avoided. And, just to give a recent example, also not the production decline in the North Sea since 2000. The use of “aggressive” production methods aimed at producing fields at a maximum rate possibly poses a problem regarding the future global oil supply. Once the inevitable decline sets in, decline rates probably will be much higher than without the prior use of these methods. The decline rates in offshore regions past peak set an ominous example.

--Crude Oil: The Supply Outlock, Report to the Energy Watch Group, October 2007

New discoveries are another matter. The age of discovery peaked some time ago --in the sixties. For his efforts, Hubbert was pilloried by oil experts and economists. Nevertheless, the 70's are remembered for an Arab Oil Embargo that, while it might not have been the end, made the point that the US had become an oil junkie nation. The US partnership with Arab oil producers was always a strange marriage of fundamentalist Christians from Texas and equally fundamentalist Muslims from the far flung deserts of the Middle East, primarily Saudi Arabia. It was and remains a recipe for terrorism.

Only oil already found is produced. It is just a matter of time that production from existing fields will peak and decline. That time has come. The global availability of oil will decline hereafter, year after year, accompanied by declines in economic growth in every oil-based economy.

Since oil replaced whale blubber, "coal oil", camphene and other lubricants and fuels, economic growth has been accompanied, made possible in fact, by growing oil consumption. In recent years, the growth of oil supplies has slowed and, thus, production has now plateaued. It is no surprise that oil prices have reached historic highs. It's a matter of supply balanced against industrial demands for oil, consumer demands for transportation.

The German-based Energy Watch Group puts a date on global oil production peak: the year 2006, earlier than most experts had expected, perhaps, as well, the oil barons propping up the Bush administration. Based on the report, you can now expect oil production to fall at a rate of 7% a year. Concurrently, oil prices will set new records. Just recently, oil hit more than $90 a barrel.

What this means for individuals all over the world is a matter of bleak conjecture amid the need for "radically different" approaches. The report quotes British energy economist David Fleming:
Anticipated supply shortages could lead easily to disturbing scenes of mass unrest as witnessed in Burma this month. For government, industry and the wider public, just muddling through is not an option any more as this situation could spin out of control and turn into a complete meltdown of society.

--British Economist David Fleming in Crude Oil: The Supply Outlook, Report to the Energy Watch Group, October 2007

Americans are just barely aware that for a long time they paid about one-third the price Europeans paid for gasoline! But you have to credit the GOP with resourcefulness. The Bush administration delivered a message to the faithful: the war in Iraq would result in lower prices at the pump even as Bush cited every other reason for waging war on Iraq. To assert that oil was behind Bush's war of aggression was tantamount to treason. It was unpatriotic. It was enough to get you pilloried and ostracized.

For a while, America bought Bush's line. Dixie Chick CD's were banned, there was a flag on every SUV, the nation was out to kick Iraqi ass. Americans felt macho. It is not a period of time which Americans can look back on with pride. I am sure millions would prefer to forget having bought that SUV. Millions may have forgiven the Dixie Chicks for daring to speak the truth. I am surprised that Bill Maher didn't promise to kick their asses! Millions must admit now that they were dead wrong and will pay the price for greed and imperialist ambitions. After peak oil, there is no place to run. No place to hide. See also: Life After the Oil Crash

There is a bright side to oil's demise. Oil wars will have outlived their utility. Those wars that are waged may not be motorized, certainly not powered by fossil fuels. The long bow may make its biggest come back since Agincourt.

The "oil industry" may no longer dictate to governments. The industry may no longer demand and get an "oil depletion allowance", the sacred cow that most surely cost JFK his life and Jimmy Carter his legacy. It's easy to find in the 1970's the growing antipathy between big oil and the Democratic party. Carter had been advised to lift price caps but others in his administration nixed the idea. Clearly, American consumers were fed up with higher prices but absurdly long lines were the only alternative. In the wake of this report, consumers will never, ever again have it both ways!


The Richard Heinberg Interview Part - 1

Classic Pop Selections









Global Shortages




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