McCain's Palin Bump

The GOP convention was the launch pad that the McCain campaign had hoped for, fueled by the inclusion of Sarah Palin. A new USA/Today poll, conducted by Gallup, indicates a bump of about 11%.

The Republican National Convention has given John McCain and his party a significant boost, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken over the weekend shows, as running mate Sarah Palin helps close an "enthusiasm gap" that has dogged the GOP all year.

McCain leads Democrat Barack Obama by 50%-46% among registered voters, the Republican's biggest advantage since January and a turnaround from the USA TODAY poll taken just before the convention opened in St. Paul. Then, he lagged by 7 percentage points.

The news gets even more dramatic, however.

In the new poll, taken Friday through Sunday, McCain leads Obama by 54%-44% among those seen as most likely to vote.

Republicans are fired up in a way that seemed impossible before Sarah.

Before the convention, Republicans by 47%-39% were less enthusiastic than usual about voting. Now, they are more enthusiastic by 60%-24%, a sweeping change that narrows a key Democratic advantage. Democrats report being more enthusiastic by 67%-19%.

What do folks say about Sarah?

Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, a national unknown before McCain chose her for the ticket 10 days ago, draws a strong reaction from voters on both sides. Now, 29% say she makes them more likely to vote for McCain, 21% less likely.

Obama's choice of Delaware Sen. Joe Biden as running mate made 14% more likely to vote for the Democrat, 7% less likely.

Bounce Over

In the wake of the CBS poll showing the presidential race has pulled back to even, the more reliable Rasmussen daily tracking poll reinforces that things are heading McCain's way.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows the beginning of John McCain’s convention bounce and the race is essentially back where it was before Obama now attracts 46% of the vote while McCain earns 45%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 48%, McCain 46%.

Of the two tickets, guess which politician is the most popular, Barack or John McCain? Neither.

Both Obama and McCain are now viewed favorably by 57% of the nation’s voters. However, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin is viewed favorably by 58%--a point more than either Presidential hopeful. Forty percent (40%) have a Very Favorable opinion of her.

Is Sarah finding acceptance?

Fifty-one percent (51%) of voters now believe that McCain made the right choice when he picked Palin to be his running mate while 32% disagree. By way of comparison, 47% said that Obama made the right choice by picking Delaware Senator Joe Biden as his running mate. 

Who is better prepared to be President - Barack, or Sarah? Despite two years of campaigning, Barack has only fooled half the people into thinking that he's as qualified as the unknown candidate, Palin.

Voters are evenly divided as to whether Palin or Obama has the better experience to be President.

Sarah Smile

Now there are two polls out showing that Barack's bounce is gone. Earlier Sunday afternoon, the Zogby poll gave McCain a 2 point lead, and now the CNN/Opinion Research poll, released Sunday evening, confirms that Barack's ride was a short one.

With a survey of voters taken Friday through today, the results show that 49 percent said they support the Democratic presidential ticket Barack Obama and Joe Biden and 48 percent support the Republican team of John McCain and Sarah Palin.

Maybe it was Palin?

Maybe, maybe not - the favorable rating on McCain's running-mate pick is running at 52 percent. The voters surveyed were asked to rate McCain's choice of Palin, announced on Friday after Obama's convention ended. Only 27 percent called it excellent and 25 percent called it good - that's a 52-percent positive. But 21 percent called it a fair pick and 25 percent called it a poor pick - a 46 percent negative.

The Palin Effect

The Gallup Daily Tracking Poll confirms the results of the Rasmussen tracker - while Barack got a bump of several points from the Bill and Hillary Clinton days of the convention, day four, featuring The Messiah himself, brought him no increase in support.

Barack Obama maintains an eight percentage point lead over John McCain when registered voters nationwide are asked whom they would vote for in the presidential election if it were held today, according to the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking figures.

It appears we can credit the Palin Effect, along with the clever VP announcement handling of the McCain team, with having nipped Barack's growth in the bud. The numbers will likely pull closer together by the beginning of the week.

Rasmussen also didn't change the day after Barack's big speech.

The numbers are little changed since yesterday and show Barack Obama attracting 47% of the vote nationwide while John McCain earns 43%.

Scroll down for more poll results.

Barack Bump

The Gallup tracking poll, which a couple of days ago had McCain pulling into a 2 point lead, now has Barack up 6%. As a poll of registered voters, Gallup tends to jump around alot.

Ironically, the Rasmussen tracker, less volatile with it's survey of likely voters, has the race as a tie.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows hints of a modest convention bounce building for Barack Obama. The Democrat gained a point from yesterday and now attracts 45% of the vote nationwide while John McCain earns 44%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 47% and McCain 47%.

Whatever bump Obama may get will be difficult to sustain, as McCain stands poised to pounce on the news cycle with his VP announcement tonight.

Reviewing recent single-night polling data—rather than the three-day average--shows that Obama lost ground immediately following the selection of Joe Biden as his running mate. That had little or nothing to do with Biden and everything to do with the fact that the running mate was not named Hillary Clinton. The impact of that choice was reflected in the polling results released Tuesday and Wednesday showing modest gains for McCain.

McCain's attempt to end news stories about Barack's acceptance speech at Rezko Field tonight as soon as they begin is shrewd.

However, events are moving rapidly this season and the impact of the convention is starting to replace the impact of the Vice Presidential announcement. New polling data shows that 74% of Democrats say their convention has unified the party and 84% believe Hillary Clinton’s speech will help Obama in the fall.

Even if Obama gets a couple of days of news out of his speech tonight, it will end on Monday with the start of the GOP convention.

Obama’s poll numbers have improved over the past couple of nights and today’s update shows a tie race because it includes a mix of both recent trends. But it seems likely that Obama will end the convention with a modest lead over McCain. Then, of course, it will be time for the Republican Vice Presidential pick and, next week, the GOP convention.

Bump Part II

What sort of Bump should Barack get from the convention? And should it be equaled by McCain after the GOP convention? Newsweek gets answers on how to view the stagnant polls from Tom Holbrook, professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee and author of "Do Campaigns Matter?" Here are some highlights.

So you'd say that McCain is overperforming, given the climate?
Yes, I'd say so. Although not wildly so.The other thing that seems to matter here is that the first convention seems to get a bigger bump than the second. Not always, and it's not always a huge difference. But you compound that with the fact that Obama is running a bit behind where he should and I think it's safe to say that he's going to get a bigger bump than McCain.

Any predictions?
McCain could get a nice four or five point bump. If he does, I would expect Obama to end up with a six-to-eight-point bump. It's a little hard to tell right now without more pre-convention data. But I think something in that range wouldn't be unexpected.

Should the Obama folks be concerned about conflict with Clinton supporters at the convention? Could that diminish the 'bump'?
Sure, what goes on at the convention probably matters as well. There are times when the conventions are a mess, and that really ends up hurting the convening party. Take the Democrats in 1968 and 1972, for example. In 1972, George McGovern came out of the convention running two points worse than he was running before it. Most people attribute that to the fact that the convention was a mess, with McGovern delivering his acceptance speech in the middle of the night. That said, I don't think there's going to be much real conflict in Denver. It'll probably look more like 1988, when there was the whole argument between Michael Dukakis and Jesse Jackson--would Jackson speak or not? Despite the clash, Dukakis got a nice bump--just about seven percentage points--and was vaulted into the lead.

This year we have this unique situation where the conventions are separated by a weekend, as opposed to a full week or more. They're also relatively late in the season. How will this year's weird schedule affect things?
In my own research, I've found that the earlier in the summer the conventions take place, the bigger the bumps will be. I think in part because people are less settled on whom they're going to vote for and more open to persuasion. But the thing I'm most concerned about is the closeness of the two conventions. I think since we've have modern polling the closest two conventions have ever been is a week apart--Clinton and Dole were a week apart.

There are two possibilities here, and both these things could happen. The first one is that the Democratic Convention ends on Thursday, McCain will undoubtedly announce his vice-presidential choice on Friday and that will blunt any post-convention glow that usually translates into a bit more of a bump for Obama. The other possibility is that the convention hubbub is really getting started now, and Obama is going to announce his pick by Friday. So he's got these extra few days of pre-convention run-up publicity. Now, McCain's not going to have that. He won't the floor, so to speak, until next Friday. So the compressed schedule could also blunt McCain's ability to generate a large bump. It's a wrinkle that will probably have some effect. It might affect them both, or it might have a stronger effect on one than the other.

The Bump

Were all media attention not about to swing to Obama for the next week or so, some might be starting to ask - "where's McCain's lead?" After all, he's been kicking the crap out of Barack for almost a month, yet all he's been able to do is keep it about even. This surprises me - my gut says McCain must have developed an advantage.

Here's where the polls are today.
Gallup - Barack up 1%
Rasmussen - Barack up 1%

Gallup and Rasmussen are both tracking polls that are updated daily, so they're the best barometer of the feeling of voters. Rasmussen surveys likely voters, so their numbers tend to be more stable than Gallup's survey of registered voters.

An LA Times/Bloomberg poll of registered voters 8/15-18 shows a 2% lead for Barack, while a Reuters/Zogby poll of likely voters 8/14-16 gives McCain a 5% lead.

In a sharp turnaround, Republican John McCain has opened a 5-point lead on Democrat Barack Obama in the U.S. presidential race and is seen as a stronger manager of the economy, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.

Were there no polls to guide us, I would have guessed that McCain is up 7 to 10 points right now. Is there a McCain effect - people reluctant to admit to pollsters that they are supporting the old white guy?

McCain leads Obama among likely U.S. voters by 46 percent to 41 percent, wiping out Obama's solid 7-point advantage in July and taking his first lead in the monthly Reuters/Zogby poll.

Perhaps Zobgy is using some technique that breaks through the ageism factor in a way that Gallup and Rasmussen haven't discovered, leaving their tallies tainted by age bigotry.

The reversal follows a month of attacks by McCain, who has questioned Obama's experience, criticized his opposition to most new offshore oil drilling and mocked his overseas trip.

The Zogby results are echoed, weekly, by the new Battleground Poll from George Washington University.

Despite a negative political environment for the Republicans, the presidential horserace is within the margin of error (+ 3.1%). With a tight turnout model, McCain currently tops Obama by 1 point (47%-46%).

The Battleground Poll indicates that Barack's key to winning is getting new voters into the polling booths on November 4 - a job that presumably gets harder as he abandons policies that made him look like a change candidate.

Democratic pollster Celinda Lake notes, "Voters are looking for change... This poll also modeled a traditional electorate. However, Obama has the ability to change the electorate. Simulating modest gains in youth turnout takes the ballot to a 2-point advantage for Obama. Changing the face of the electorate is Obama's ace in the hole."

Either way, we can expect an Obama bump as the spotlight swings to Barack for the VP announcement this week and the convention next week.

The (Zogby) poll was taken Thursday through Saturday as Obama wrapped up a weeklong vacation in Hawaii that ceded the political spotlight to McCain, who seized on Russia's invasion of Georgia to emphasize his foreign policy views.

Tighter Still

Barack had a short-lived bump, with a Gallup poll of registered voters showing him with a 9 point lead a few days ago. Now it's down to four, with Rasmussen at 2%.

Take a look at this ominous stat:

In the race for the White House, there are nearly twice as many uncommitted voters as there were four years ago in late July (see other recent demographic highlights). While much has been made of John McCain’s struggles with his party’s conservative base, 33% of the uncommitted voters are Democrats while only 19% are Republicans.

Registered Democrats are unsure about Barack.

The Faux Bump

Just because Barack's overseas trip doesn't appear to have improved his lot significantly doesn't mean that it wasn't beneficial. Longterm, it will likely contribute to an improvement in voters' perceptions of his Gravitas. But the bump was a short one - with Rasmussen showing a one point race.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows that Barack Obama’s Berlin bounce is gone. Obama now attracts 44% of the vote while John McCain earns 42%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 47% and McCain 46%. Compared to a week ago, Obama has gained a single percentage point (see recent daily results).

More important than the trip, however, is what it reveals - that there is strong voter resistance to the notion of Barack. A glass ceiling - an wall that can't be seen, but stops his movement cold. It's been like this since mid-March, and the appearance of Jeremiah Wright.

However, the week’s polling showed a roller-coaster of opinion surrounding Obama’s big speech. The event in Berlin was well-covered and initial reviews on the speech were positive. Polling on Thursday and Friday nights was very strong for the Democrat, leading to a six-point advantage in our Saturday morning release. However, polling for the past three days shows no trace of a bounce. The data looks very similar to results from the period preceding the speech and, with fourteen weeks to go, the race for the White House is a toss-up.

McCain is more popular amongst his party members than is Barack with Democrats, and McCain is just as popular with independents.

Obama earns the vote from 78% of Democrats, McCain is supported by 86% of Republicans, and unaffiliated voters are evenly divided.

While Democrats will automatically assume that racism provides Barack his barrier, the polls indicate that Barack does better with white voters than George W. did in either 2000 or 2004.

McCain leads 50% to 44% among White voters and 51% to 43% among men. Obama leads 51% to 42% among women and 92% to 5% among African-Americans (see other recent demographic highlights).

As I posted earlier - "It's entirely unlikely that an unknown quantity like Barack, with no leadership experience and a checkered collection of allies - including links to anti-American radicalism - two Muslim fathers, a Muslim sounding name and a groundbreaking racial configuration can capture the hearts of America, even given the huge structural advantage that any Democrat enjoys today."

Obama is viewed favorably by 56% of voters, McCain by 54%.

Short Bounce

Barack's bounce appears to be fading already. Yesterday, he had a 5 point lead from Rasmussen and a 9 point lead from Gallup, but today offers a different picture.

Gallup has dropped, but just one point, to an 8% lead for Barack. But Rasmussen goes back to 3% for Obama.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows that Barack Obama’s Berlin bounce is fading. Obama now attracts 45% of the vote while John McCain earns 42%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 48% and McCain 45%. Both Obama and McCain are viewed favorably by 56% of voters.

But here's the most remarkable news. Another Gallup poll, done for USA Today, shows McCain in the lead!!!

Republican presidential candidate John McCain moved from being behind by 6 points among "likely" voters a month ago to a 4-point lead over Democrat Barack Obama among that group in the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll. McCain still trails slightly among the broader universe of "registered" voters. By both measures, the race is tight.

That's a 10 point swing in just a month - and, these numbers were collected Friday thru Sunday, when Barack was at the peak of his Overseas Buzz. Which puts Barack into very tight territory in the Real Clear Politics average of current polls.

With today's Rasmussen and Gallup tracking both ticking down for Obama (-2 and -1, respectively) and a new Dem Corps poll showing Obama up five, the new RCP National Average has Obama's lead over McCain dipping to 3.2%.

Gallup Uptick Continues

PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama now leads John McCain among national registered voters by a 49% to 40% margin in Gallup Poll Daily tracking conducted July 24-26.

Barack's bounce appears to still be on the upswing, at least among registered voters tallied by Gallup. Rasmussen still has the race at 5 points. Either way, Barack has regained the position he had in early July, which had been fading of late.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows Barack Obama attracts 46% of the vote while John McCain earns 41%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 49% and McCain 44%. McCain’s numbers are up a point from yesterday while Obama’s remain unchanged. Obama is viewed favorably by 56% of voters, McCain by 55%.

The contrast between the polls is worth noting. The Gallup bounce is bigger, presumably because voters who are less likely to vote are included. Rasmussen tests for a respondent's likelihood of voting, which buffers the impact because those likely to vote are, we assume, better informed.

These numbers could be the start of a longterm trend in Barack's favor, or perhaps they'll start moving downward this week. That remains to be seen. But the power of having a purposeful campaign, something that John McCain still lacks, is well displayed by this movement.

Polls - Barack Bump

Gallup shows Barack up 7%, and Rasmussen up 5.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows Barack Obama attracts 46% of the vote while John McCain earns 41%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 49% and McCain 44%. McCain’s numbers are up a point from yesterday while Obama’s remain unchanged. Obama is viewed favorably by 56% of voters, McCain by 55%.

Here's the Bump

Barack seems to have gotten a bump from the trip. The Rasmussen poll, which showed him up 3% yesterday, now shows Obama with a 5 point lead.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows a bounce for Barack Obama. The presumptive Democratic nominee attracts 46% of the vote while John McCain earns 41%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 49% and McCain 44%. Just three days ago, the candidates were tied at 46% (with leaners).

Barack had been running below his normal range over the past couple of weeks, but today's number are more in line with the race was until the beginning of July.

This is the first time that Obama has enjoyed a five point advantage since July 8. It’s also the first time he has reached the 49% level of support since that date. In June, Obama’s support stayed within a point of the 49% level virtually every day and the Democrat typically led by about five percentage points.

Does this represent a permanent change in the race, or just a natural response to the media focus which will fade with time?

The race has been closer over the past couple of weeks (see recent daily results). As with any bounce in the polls, it will take a few days to determine whether it reflects a lasting change in the race or is merely statistical noise.