Palin Power

Does it matter what she says, or just that she says it? Sarah rocked the news ratings for ABC.

Regardless of how one feels about Gibson's technique, he definitely scored a hit in the ratings. "NBC Nightly News" with Brian Williams usually wins the three-network evening news race, but Thursday, ABC's newscast beat NBC's by more than 2 million viewers (9.73 million to 7.5 million, with CBS trailing at 6.1 million), according to quickie Nielsen numbers.

Even Thursday's Nightline broadcast, which aired a less choppy cut of the interview, managed a first place finish with Sarah starring.

"Nightline," which featured a longer Palin interview at 11:35 p.m., drew an audience nearly 30 percent bigger than CBS' "Late Show" and 16 percent bigger than NBC's "Tonight Show," according to early Nielsen numbers out yesterday.

Saturday Night Live is so impressed, they're rebuilding the show to tap into the Palin Power.

Tina Fey is "likely" to play Gov. Sarah Palin on "Saturday Night Live," said a person close to NBC's sketch comedy show.

Fey is "likely" to return to her former show Saturday to play the Alaskan governor and Sen. John McCain's running mate, a person close to the show told The Associated Press on Friday night. The person requested anonymity because the decision has not been announced officially. No further details were available.

Character Attack

Is McCain being fair?

"It seems to me that Obama would rather lose a war in order to win a political campaign," McCain said Tuesday in New Hampshire, in a line he’s been using regularly since.

That statement represents shorthand for an angle that is entirely accurate - attacking Barack's character for having contrived positions on the war to please liberal Democrats in order to outflank Hillary.

A former naval aviator and prisoner of war in Vietnam, McCain is pressing his case against a candidate with no military experience, and who—thanks in part to a subterranean smear campaign that’s tapped a nerve with some voters who because of it or even prior to it—don’t see him as entirely or all American.

Doubts about Barack - his background, his judgment, his patriotism - underpin his problems with mainstream voters. It is wise, and fair, for McCain to go for the jugular.

It’s a tempting line of attack, though, against Obama, who a recent poll found that 55 percent of voters thought was the “riskier” choice for president as against 35 percent who said McCain. It’s also an attack that tap into a major source of that unease, race, and is especially likely to pay dividends with a relative newcomer to the national stage such as Obama, whose public image is not yet as clearly defined.

Giving vague speeches like the one offered on the streets of Berlin only serves to fuel questions about who Barack is and what he truly believes.

"I'm not questioning his patriotism," McCain said on ABC's This Week with George Stephanopolous. "I am saying that he made the decision [to oppose the surge], which was political, in order to help him get the nomination of his party.

Which is, of course, an attack on his patriotism. And one that is deserved.

Media Backfire

Barack's speech certainly made him center stage yesterday - and there's no question that shots of him meeting comfortably with world leaders may allay the fears somewhat of the majority of Americans who question his readiness for the presidency - but media attempts to compensate for its excitement over Barack with balanced reporting may ruin the opportunity for this week's tour to provide the jump start the Obama campaign so sorely needs.

Last night's World News, for example, spent the first 7 minutes on Barack. In the setup, Charlie Gibson mentioned that many see Barack's tour and speech as presumptuous. Then Jake Tapper started his report by mentioning that you don't usually see presidential candidates taking their campaigns to Germany. McCain also received decent coverage.

This morning, Barack momentous moment went without mention during the start of Good Morning America. They focused the news heavy portion of the program on stories such as the airliner that popped a hole yesterday, the possible tornadoes in New Hampshire, and a follow-up on the woman who didn't seem concerned when her young daughter was missing for a month.

While the Today Show considered Barack to be news, it also provided good coverage of McCain's compensatory trips to American towns with European names. Ultimately, the scheduled appearance of Miley Cirus in Rockefeller Plaza generated more heat than Barack.

How eager is Barack for something to change the movement in this campaign? Consider the latest polls from four states, taken partially during this week's trip, that confirm the tightening race seen in national polls.

July 24, 2008 - McCain Closes In On Obama In Four Battleground States, Quinnipiac University/Wall Street Journal/ Washingtonpost.Com Poll Finds

What little air Barack had in his sales 6 weeks after disposing of Hillary is almost gone. It's up to the Berlin speech to provide some lift, and the signs don't seem to be there that any major winds have been generated. Except in New Hampshire.

Barack Under Pressure

Charlie Gibson flustered Barack in an interview that aired on last night's World News. Impressive work from Gibson, who simply asked appropriate follow-ups, something few have the brainpower or the tenacity to do. By comparison, watch Katie's weak attempt to pursue Barack a day earlier.

Anyway, it's informative to see Barack's reactions when Charlie doesn't want to let him rewrite his prior statement on an undivided Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.

McCain's Game

On ABC News last night, they did their best to be balanced in the coverage of Barack's trip. They did this by mentioning that McCain was struggling to find a way to fight the intense coverage Barack is receiving.

Some say that McCain has found the answer - an early announcement of his VP pick.

The scuttlebutt comes from a piece written by syndicated columnist Robert Novak. The small item, which was also posted on Drudge Report, said the campaign was considering breaking the news to mitigate any excitement around Barack Obama’s trip abroad.

The McCain campaign had its tongue planted in its cheek with the response: “We have no announcements today,” said Brooke Buchanan, a close McCain aide.

Is there some possibility that this is true, or is McCain messing with the press?

The schedule certainly keeps the possibility open for later in the week. McCain will hold a town hall meeting in New Hampshire on Tuesday afternoon—a state he won in both the 2000 and the 2008 primaries. He’s also headed to a trio of high-profile swing states.

If it's a ruse, which it surely must be, it's a well orchestrated one.

And then there’s the news of the private meetings with the names of folks topping the shortlist. Reports surfaced that McCain has met with former rival Rudy Giuliani and will meet later this week with Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal.

The media traveling with McCain has been trying to get an answer, but hasn't had much luck.

To get to the bottom of the buzz, the traveling press corps rushed the plane Monday evening. A group of reporters reached beyond the curtain that divides its seating area from McCain and his campaign.

“Go away!” laughed Mark Salter, a senior aide.

“What do you want you little jerks?” McCain said.

From my point of view, the media coverage of Barack's trip has been rather subdued. It should get worse today, as network anchors start to join The One.

Barack's Support Continues to Slip

There are more negative signs for Barack in the latest numbers.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Barack Obama attracting 42% of the vote while John McCain earns 41%.

The one point lead for Barack is an improvement - it was tied yesterday. But,

That’s the lowest level of support measured for Obama since he clinched the Democratic Presidential nomination on June 3. Obama’s support peaked at 48% with data released on June 8, 9, and 10. During that same time frame, McCain’s support has remained steady in the 40% to 42% range (he’s had just one day a point below that range and two days a point above it).

Is this all Barack will be able to muster - a glass ceiling?

When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 46% and McCain 45%. With leaners, Obama reached 50% support in mid-June and was at 48% or 49% every day from June 13 until July 10. Since then, he has reached the 48% level just once while polling consistently at 46% or 47% (see recent daily results). Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day.

So, Barack's downward trend continues - his campaign remains essentially stalled since Reverend Wright first appeared in mid-March. I continue to believe that the media is failing to see, or report, a huge structural problem for Barack. It just may be that he can't do any better than this - that he is unacceptable to most Americans. His drops have taken place while McCain has remained flat, with a campaign that has yet to find its footing. What happens when it does?

Despite the illusion created in the media, voters like McCain better. This holds true amongst what we're told is the key battleground group, independent voters.

McCain is viewed favorably by 57% of voters, Obama by 53%. McCain is currently supported by 86% of Republicans and holds a modest--four percentage point—lead among unaffiliated voters. Obama earns the vote from 77% of Democrats (see other recent demographic highlights).