Russo-Ukraine War - July 2024

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A number of claims and counterclaims are being made on the Ukraine-Russia conflict on the ground and online. While GlobalSecurity.org takes utmost care to accurately report this news story, we cannot independently verify the authenticity of all statements, photos and videos.

On 24 February 2022, Ukraine was suddenly and deliberately attacked by land, naval and air forces of Russia, igniting the largest European war since the Great Patriotic War. Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a "special military operation" (SVO - spetsialnaya voennaya operatsiya) in Ukraine. The military buildup in preceeding months makes it obvious that the unprovoked and dastardly Russian attack was deliberately planned long in advance. During the intervening time, the Russian government had deliberately sought to deceive the world by false statements and expressions of hope for continued peace.

"To initiate a war of aggression... is not only an international crime; it is the supreme international crime differing only from other war crimes in that it contains within itself the accumulated evil of the whole." [Judgment of the International Military Tribunal]

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Russia sends soldiers into meat assaults, but does not take back corpses.

On July 2, 2024, Colonel Averyanov, with the call sign "Liner," informed 14 Russian soldiers of the 1st Motorized Rifle Regiment (military unit 31135) that they would be transferred to an assault unit, for which they were not prepared due to lack of rest and replacement. Averyanov also stated that they were not entitled to leaves, rest, pay, and medical service, and their task was to "pave the way for those behind us with our bodies."

The Levada Center reported 04 July 2024 that about half of respondents continue to closely follow the events in Ukraine. Support for the actions of the Russian armed forces also remains high. For the first time in six months, the number of supporters of negotiations has noticeably increased (up to 58%). Most of those surveyed believe that Russia is more interested in the negotiations. Two thirds of respondents still place responsibility for what is happening on the US and NATO; their conviction in this regard has grown over the year. Half of those surveyed allow for the conflict to escalate into a direct clash between Russia and NATO. Military actions mainly make Russians proud of Russia (48%) or anxious, afraid and terrified (33%); these feelings have prevailed among respondents since the beginning of the conflict. Most of those surveyed are concerned about shelling of Russian territories from Ukraine, the threat of using nuclear weapons and the supply of Western military equipment. Every third person admits that the use of nuclear weapons by Russia during the conflict may be justified.

Those who support the actions of the Russian army most often are those surveyed aged 55 and over (84%), respondents who barely have enough money for clothes and who can afford consumer durables (78% each), those who believe that things in the country are going in the right direction (86%), those who approve of V. Putin’s performance as president (84%), and those who trust information on television (87%). Those who support the actions of the Russian military the least are those under 24 (59%), low-income Russians (69%), those who believe that the country is moving down the wrong path (41%), those who do not approve of the activities of the current president (32%), and those who trust information from YouTube channels (66%).

The opinion about the need to move to peace negotiations is most often expressed by women (64%), young Russians (66% aged 18 to 24), those who barely have enough for food (64%), rural residents (65%), those who believe that the country is moving down the wrong path (77%), respondents who do not approve of V. Putin's activities as president (75%), and those who trust information from YouTube channels (65%).

The USA announced military aid to Ukraine for more than $2.2 billion, Ukraine received the same amount from the IMF . The United States will allow the Defense Forces to fire at a greater distance with American weapons if the Russian Federation tries to expand the front. Orban met in Kyiv with Zelenskyi (the main statements are here ), and then went to Moscow . Valery Zaluzhnyi left for Great Britain and will soon begin to perform the duties of the ambassador. Turkey conducted an anti-terrorist operation in several areas in northern Iraq. North Korea has tested a tactical missile with an extra-large warhead. Donald Trump may claim immunity in the case of the storming of the Capitol on January 6, 2021. Labor won the British elections, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak resigned, and Labor leader Keir Starmer headed the government instead . The IMF estimated the losses of the Ukrainian energy industry from the war at almost $57 billion. The World Bank for the first time identified Ukraine as a country with higher than average incomes . The National Bank will introduce restrictions on the transfer of funds from one card to another. Germany brought the third Patriot air defense system to Ukraine.

The Russian Army did not plan to carry out large-scale offensive operations along the entire front line. She does not have the necessary resource for this. The Russians are trying to find weak points in the defense of Ukrainian forces. Military analyst Olexiy Hetman said this on the FREEDOM TV channel 05 July 2024. According to him, the line of active combat operations is more than 1 thousand km.

“Naturally, if they have more people, we have less, if we stretch equally, we will be thinner mathematically. Therefore, the Russians are counting on this, they want to find a weak point in order to send more forces and resources there, that is, people and equipment, artillery, aviation – everything that is needed for advancement,” Hetman explained. He noted that the Russian military command does not spare its military and equipment.

“Without sparing people, they advance with enormous sacrifices 10 meters, 100 meters, one kilometer. And they consider this a successful action. And they think that through a “creeping occupation” they are occupying some additional areas, advancing somewhere on the front line,” said the military analyst.

On 06 July 2024 came the raising of the flag by Russian paratroopers from the 98th Airborne Division in the taken control of the "Channel" microdistrict on the outskirts of Chasy Yar. Now the main task for those storming the city will be to overcome or bypass the water barrier in the form of the Seversky Donetsk-Donbass Canal, separating this microdistrict from the main part of Chasy Yar.

On July 16, the maximum air temperature in Kyiv was the highest during observations for this date and reached 36.0 °C, which exceeded the previous record of 1931 by 0.2 °C. The previous temperature record in Kyiv was set on July 15. The maximum temperature in the capital was the highest on record for the date, surpassing the previous record set in 1883. Prior to this, on July 14, three temperature records were set in Ukraine — the average daily temperature, the warmest minimum daily temperature and the maximum daily temperature.

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump claimed 18 July 2024 that Russia launched a special military operation in Ukraine after seeing the weakness of the United States in withdrawing American troops from Afghanistan. "Look at what's happening in Ukraine. <...> It started with the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan. <...> Emboldened by that failure, Russia invaded Ukraine. They saw that these people [the current U.S. administration] were incompetent," he said. Trump called the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan "the greatest humiliation" in U.S. history. "We left behind $85 billion worth of military equipment and many American soldiers," he said.

"In my talks with [former] President Trump, I came to the conclusion that foreign policy will play only a minor role in his election campaign, which is dominated by domestic issues. Therefore, we cannot expect any peace initiative from him before the elections. However, I can say with certainty that soon after his election victory, he will not wait until his inauguration, but will be ready to act immediately as a peace broker. He has detailed and well-founded plans for this," Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban said in a message to Brussels published by the Hungarian government 18 July 2024.

The chief of NATO’s European Command, Christopher Cavoli, described Ukraine’s losses on the frontlines as a sign it is “generating force” for a further offensive. In a speech at the Aspen Security Forum in Colorado on 18 July 2024, the bloc’s top general said Kiev’s overall military strategy is “great” in terms of balancing recruitment, training, and arms procurement. According to Cavoli, in modern warfare, one “either wins fast and upfront” or is stuck “for a long slog full of unpredictable twists and turns,” which is the case in the Ukraine conflict.

“A lot of it’s going to come down to force generation capability, which side can generate force fastest and take advantage of that while they have a window of opportunity,” he stated, saying that this is what Kiev has been doing for the past few months. “I think that they’ve got a great strategy. It is just a matter of prosecuting it,” he stated, stressing that force generation, or figuring out how best to use men, training, and weapons, is key to securing victory. He praised Kiev’s recent mobilization efforts and said that weapons deliveries from the West are also “proceeding well.”

The end of aid to Kyiv from the United States and its allies will mean that Russia will win the conflict. This opinion was expressed 19 July 2024 by the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) of the US Armed Forces, General Charles Brown. "I'll just say that if we collectively stop supporting Ukraine, [Russian President Vladimir] Putin will win," he said at the Aspen Institute's annual security forum. Brown was responding to a question about the possibility of Washington cutting off aid to Ukraine if Republican Donald Trump wins the US election. "Our credibility is at stake. It's not just the United States, it's NATO, the West," he added. "I think it's important that we continue to provide support to Ukraine. Also to ensure that the conflict does not escalate," Brown stressed.

President Zelensky said 21 July 2024: "We can end the hot stage of the war before the end of this year ... It doesn't mean that all territories must be recaptured ... But we must be strong on the battlefield ... we need to take steps to force it to retreat ... this will give (us) better position at the negotiating table." Zelensky told the BBC that no one wanted to keep the conflict going “for another ten years or longer.” In the same interview, however, he clarified that his solution was for Ukraine’s allies in the West to agree on backing his “peace formula” and present it to Russia as a unified bloc.

Zelensky might be changing his rhetoric because of fears that former US president Donald Trump could return to the White House and change Washington’s policy of unconditional support to Kiev, Polish international relations expert Dr. Witold Sokala said. Zelensky said Ukraine was not receiving enough Western assistance to win the war. “Not everything depends on us. We know what would be a just end to the war, but it doesn’t depend only on us. It depends not only on our people and our desire, but also on finance, on weapons, on political support, on unity in the EU, in NATO, in the world,” the president said.

The proportion of Ukrainians who support territorial concessions to Russia in exchange for peace is rising, according to July 2024 polling by the Kyiv International Institute for Sociology (KIIS). After May 2023, there is a gradual increase in the share of those who are ready for territorial concessions. Thus, by the end of 2023, willingness to make concessions increased to 19%, in February 2024 – to 26%, in May 2024 – to 32%. The share of those who oppose no territorial concessions, accordingly, steadily decreased in the specified period. At the same time, despite everything, as of May 2024, the majority of Ukrainians - 55% - opposed any territorial concessions.

"Ukrainian morale for reclaiming all territories may be waning due to exhaustion and heavy losses," Viktor Kovalenko, a defense analyst and former Ukrainian soldier told Newsweek. "Their military has shifted to a defensive stance, lacking the capabilities for a counteroffensive. Despite assurances of unwavering support, Western aid appears increasingly uncertain." The survey also found that 55 percent of respondents still opposed giving up territory to Russia if it would end the war. However, this was down from 74 percent of the population in December 2023 who held this view.

As part of the latest survey, the respondents were also presented with several models of a potential peace agreement between Kiev and Moscow. The first option involved Russia retaining control of Crimea and the four other former Ukrainian territories, Kiev abandoning its NATO ambitions and joining the EU. This model was backed by 38% of respondents, with 30% calling it a “difficult” but “acceptable” option. More than half of respondents (54%) rejected it.

The second option had Russia keeping the newly acquired territories but allowing Ukraine to join both NATO and the EU. Almost half of respondents backed it (47%), while 38% rejected it. The third option had Moscow ceding control over the regions of Kherson and Zaporozhye, but keeping the two Donbass republics and Crimea. In this scenario, Ukraine would also join both the EU and NATO. This model was backed by 57% of respondents, with 20% calling it an “easily acceptable deal.” A third of respondents rejected it.

Putin had said Russia would end its war in Ukraine if Kyiv surrendered the entirety of four regions claimed by Moscow: Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Large swathes of these regions remain under Ukrainian control, so he is essentially asking Ukraine to give up territory without a fight.

Zelensky would likely need to hold a nationwide referendum to “legitimize” any potential peace agreement with Russia, the Mayor of Kiev Vitaly Klitschko has said. Effectively, any move Zelensky could make risks his “political suicide,” Klitschko believes. Speaking with Italian daily Corriere della Sera on 21 July 2024, the mayor of the Ukrainian capital predicted that the “next few months” are set to be “very difficult” for Zelensky. “We are waiting for the US elections, but to establish peace we will need a referendum,” he said. The nationwide vote would likely be needed to “legitimize” a potential peace deal with Moscow, given that any compromise would be very hard to explain to the Ukrainian public, Klitschko believes. Continuing the hostilities for another few years, however, is not an option either, the mayor insisted. “I do not think [Zelensky] can reach such painful and crucial agreements by himself without public legitimacy,” Klitschko opined.

Kyiv mayor Vitali Klitschko surprised observers by toying with the idea of a "territorial compromise" with Russia. Analysts say he's doing it for political purposes, and that society is not ready for such a peace. Volodymyr Fesenko, the director of the Penta Center for Political Studies in Kyiv, likened Klitschko's comments to a "false start." He said there were no real peace talks happening at the moment, only initiatives and plans that are not necessarily the foundation for negotiations. He said Klitschko was trying to settle accounts with Zelenskyy, with whom he has been at odds for years.

"Klitschko is fueling existing fears in society of a secret deal. But there are no secret agreements, there are no peace talks at all," insisted Fesenko. He said it would be impossible to conclude a secret deal, as it would have to be implemented with Ukrainian society anyway. "Approval by means of a referendum would be needed precisely in this case, as Klitschko indicated, so that Zelenskyy does not relinquish anything on his own," he said.

Klitschko, who has never made a secret of his ambitions to become president, is using the situation to accumulate "political dividends" for himself. His comments could be viewed as pseudo-campaigning with an eye to the elections in the future, given that the Ukrainian presidential election did not take place this year as regularly scheduled because of the war.

Roger Hilton, an analyst with the international think tank GLOBSEC, based in the Slovak capital, Bratislava, said some Ukrainian politicians were beginning to talk about territorial concessions after more than two very difficult years of war. "The fact that this concept is being expressed publicly by someone like Mayor Klitschko is recognition of the very tough policy choices for the country," he said. "And these comments by the mayor might be a domestic political exercise to test if even such a position would be somewhat received by the population."

Ukraine would like the fighting with Russia to end as quickly as possible. The Ukrainian leader was speaking 24 July 2024 with Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican’s secretary of state visiting Kiev. Zelensky thanked the Holy See for a “strong signal” of support to Ukraine. “I think all of us understand that we have to finish the war, as soon as possible of course, not to lose people’s lives,” Zelensky said in English, according to the video posted on his Telegram channel. Zelensky’s sudden interest in ending the conflict quickly was a marked change of tone from March, when Pope Francis urged Kiev to show “the courage of the white flag” and negotiate with Moscow.

The Russian military destroyed another deployment point housing Ukrainian soldiers and foreign instructors in the industrial part of the city of Kharkov, according to a report released by the Russian Defense Ministry on 25 July 2024. The ministry shared a video on its official Telegram channel purporting to show the attack on the facility, which reportedly belongs to a construction company, using the Iskander-M. The missile system launches hypersonic missiles carrying a 700kg payload and is capable of hitting targets up to 500km away. It’s stated that the strike took out some 100 fighters, 40 of whom were foreign instructors and 60 were Ukrainian servicemen. Earlier this week, the ministry reported another attack on a deployment point for foreign instructors located in the town of Dergachi in Kharkov Region. The facility was also destroyed using the Iskander-M system and some 50 foreigners were said to have been eliminated in the strike.

The fighters of the Ukrainian 31st OMBr [Separate Mechanized Brigade] managed to break out of the Russian encirclement. Activity north of Progress was an extremely dynamic and intense day. Around 14:00, as predicted, a number of observation posts of the 1st and 3rd battalions were completely encircled. The brigade commander never gave the order to break through, so the personnel who were in that area confronted him with the fact that the boys would break through with a fight. With the help of coordinated actions of artillery, air reconnaissance and related forces, as well as under the control of officers on the ground, the guys from the 1st and 3rd battalions were able to break out of the encirclement in full force.

Artur Rehi noted by 27 July 2024 the most difficult situation continued to develop in the Avdiivka direction in the Ocheretyne and Toretsk area. Frontelligence writes that these advancements resulted from a lack of coordination and poor command decisions, similar to those made by the Ukrainian command during the rotation in Ocheretyne in the spring of 2024. Interestingly, the command of the Ukrainian 41st Mechanized Brigade, which was rotated to Chasiv Yar before moving to the Toretsk area, bears the lion's share of the blame for the loss of the canal district in Chasiv Yar and the Toretsk - Niu York area. In both cases, the Russians were able to advance within their areas of responsibility.

The defense of Ukrainian formations in Krasnohorivka continued to rapidly crumble under the onslaught of Russian troops. At the moment, most of the city is under the control of the Russian Armed Forces. The active battles that have been raging for the settlement since the beginning of January are, it seems, approaching their logical conclusion. With the capture of Krasnohorivka, the last line of defense of the AFU west of Donetsk, which has remained almost unchanged since 2014, will fall.

Russians are advancing in various directions around Vesele, which is flanked, towards the railway along the ridge, and towards the south in the Zheleanne area, with the aim to take from behind the fortifications behind Novoselivka Persha. The Russians will try to flank the entire line of basins from behind, thus bypassing the Ukrainian trenches and the line of lakes.

According to Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, the front line is currently 3,700 kilometers long. Active hostilities were conducted on 977 kilometers, that is, on territories that are twice the length of the border between Germany and France. Ukrainian troops are stretched out and the defense line is very thin, and if it crumbles, the Russians can go behind the positions and advance several kilometers at once. Syrsky acknowledged the significant advantage of the Russians in equipment and personnel.

By the end of 2024, the Kremlin plans to increase the army to 620 thousand. Now it numbers 520 thousand, which is 5 times more than at the beginning of the invasion. The number of the Armed Forces in 2024 is approximately 350,000.

In Moscow, the one-time payment for signing a contract was raised to 2 million rubles and they began to use a new practice reminiscent of the multilevel marketing, only life is at stake. In general, in Russia they began to pay money if the signer of the contract can bring a friend into the army. All new contracts are indefinite. People sign them, thinking that the contract is for six months, but do not read the small print.

Tatarigami reported 29 July 2024 that "Feedback from officers and soldiers on the ground, the rapid progress of Russian forces, and the unacceptable attitude towards regular soldiers from higher command indicate that the situation is not "under control." It is not a total disaster only due to the actions of people on the ground who are trying their best to prevent advances and showing examples of individual heroism and leadership. Of course, deliveries of F-16s, permission to strike deeper into Russia, and supplements of vehicles would have helped the situation, but resources alone can't fix the problem of continuous command mistakes, including unrealistic tasks disproportionate to available human resources, combined with demands to retake lost positions....

"The Russian approach is not particularly innovative: they send small tactical units against Ukrainian defenses daily until one position falls, then exploit the success. Senior Ukrainian commanders have attempted to adopt similar tactics, forgetting that we have far fewer people and unreliable Western support that may or may not arrive on time, if at all.... It is still possible to break the spine of the Russian army, which has severe logistical problems, dwindling availability of preserved vehicles, reliance on unarmored transportation, unmotivated personnel, and artillery barrel replacement bottlenecks. Additionally, many internal economic problems take time to manifest. However, the window of opportunity is getting smaller. Unless radical changes are made, we are heading toward the most unfavorable scenario of all: forced negotiations, stalemate, minimization of Western aid, re-armament of the Russian army, and a new round of the war with much more unfavorable outcomes for Ukraine, leading to occupation and forced assimilation."

The Russian propagandist Voenkor Kotenok reported in July 2024 that "The pace of our progress has slowed down. Slowly we are crawling west from Donetsk. Toad jumps. It's clear why there's a slowdown. There are no people. The level of losses is high. For those who don't understand, there is NO ONE PHYSICALLY to advance. The living force has been depleted. All this taking into account the fact that some military leaders are trying to adjust the result to fit the required dates. Everyone understands that by the end of the year there is a possibility that an agreement will begin, they are trying to make it in time. In Kharkov we are fighting back with heavy losses - Liptsy, Volchansk. We are crawling along Svatovo-Kupyansky, the other day we took Peschanoye. Zaporozhye and Dnieper are standing.

"The level of a number of tactical commanders is extremely low. During an operation, these "father commanders" do not prepare an evacuation group. Company "Storm" Logic: "Why? The lightly wounded will come out on their own, but we don't pull out the heavy ones." The reality is that company commanders DO NOT KNOW their personnel, which is rapidly changing due to huge losses. "Evil tongues say that in one of the static areas the management made a "brilliant" decision....not to take away the "two hundredths" [dead], because this increases the loss statistics. In the meantime, they lie "ownerless", listed as alive or missing. They are allowed to pull the dead out in parts, in doses, so that the statistics do not increase. Unfortunately, not fiction, but reality."

Fighterbomber posted in July 2024 about the VKS motorized rifle regiment. "This is a tricky one. Under the slogan "As long as there is not a second wave of mobilization," various types of units are scooping up contract personnel for replenishment or the formation of new detachments and even units, as we see from the report. Before this video, I heard that the Navy, as soon as possible, transfers contract soldiers to Marine brigades. Including transforming of the commandant's platoon into an assault platoon. Now here is a motorized rifle regiment consisting of the VKS personnel.

"In addition, there are situational initiatives at the front. For example, taking at least a few "unnecessary" signalmen to replenish the assault company. Transfer RMO officers to the UAV platoon being formed, because contractors or specialists from mobilisation have not appeared. Form an evacuation group from a mortar battery after the loss of materiel. Disband the sniper platoon of the sniper company in order to transfer personnel to the assault platoon. This is all turnover, starting around December 2023 - the result of constant, without operational pauses for replenishment and preparation of a "positional offensive".

"Let's add to this the inflated requirements for traumatism after wounds/injuries as a basis for demobilization. Requiring to lose not just one finger, but two on one hand. And so on. As a result, there are crowds of cripples in the recruitment, from which individual commanders scoop up reinforcements for assaults - as stories from the internet show. And the fact that they tend to discharge the slightly wounded early is even more widely known.

"All this is the very reverse side of the adopted "grinding strategy" and constant, without proper pauses, pressure on all fronts. The grinding is mutual. And the hohols are striving to improve the personnel exchange rate for themselves to at least 1 to 1. Hence the bet on "a million drones," on the speed of artillery response, on the F-16 and existing aircraft as carriers of the KAB.

All these are bells (and the VKS motorized regiment generally rings the alarm bell) that either there will be a truce or a second wave of mobilization. The adopted strategy of relying on striking with poorly trained infantry instead of increasing firepower by adding its "million drones" to hundreds of artillery barrels makes a second wave almost inevitable....

"Motorized rifle regiment of the Aerospace Forces (VKS). People recruited from airfields. There are engineering and technical staff, flight crews, and flight crews present. Armed forces, radio operators, mechanics, engine and brake engineers. Sergeants, warrant officers and officers. It seems there is even one navigator. They fight normally. As everybody. Everything is provided. No complaints. Everything is fine. This is approximately the same as the motorized rifle regiment of the Alexandrov Choir. Well, or a CSKA [football team] assault brigdade. There must be some message or conclusion here. But it is not there. Today this is a given."