Russo-Ukraine War - January 2024

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A number of claims and counterclaims are being made on the Ukraine-Russia conflict on the ground and online. While GlobalSecurity.org takes utmost care to accurately report this news story, we cannot independently verify the authenticity of all statements, photos and videos.

On 24 February 2022, Ukraine was suddenly and deliberately attacked by land, naval and air forces of Russia, igniting the largest European war since the Great Patriotic War. Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a "special military operation" (SVO - spetsialnaya voennaya operatsiya) in Ukraine. The military buildup in preceeding months makes it obvious that the unprovoked and dastardly Russian attack was deliberately planned long in advance. During the intervening time, the Russian government had deliberately sought to deceive the world by false statements and expressions of hope for continued peace.

"To initiate a war of aggression... is not only an international crime; it is the supreme international crime differing only from other war crimes in that it contains within itself the accumulated evil of the whole." [Judgment of the International Military Tribunal]

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Russia sends soldiers into meat assaults, but does not take back corpses.

Despite the huge American and Western aid amounting to more than $100 billion during 2023, its counterattack - which was much promoted - ended in great disappointment after Russia repelled it, and the Ukrainian army did not succeed in regaining the territory controlled by Moscow, which is estimated at a fifth of Ukrainian territory. If Kiev receives a large boost of US aid in 2024, as President Biden hoped, it may still have to consolidate its power and absorb the relentless Russian attacks.

Gen. Ben Hodges, the former commanding general of the United States Army Europe, spoke to "Välisilm" 10 January 2023 about: "the ridiculous notion that some people think that we should push Ukraine to negotiate with Russia. Russia commits dozens of war crimes every single day with the whole world watching. And then you've got supposed experts, and I'm afraid including even from my own government, that are telling Ukraine: "You're going to have to settle, you're going to have to give up some land for peace". That reveals an utter lack of understanding of who Russia is and what Russia's goals are....

"I thought that General Zaluzhnyi's Economist piece was actually very useful. It was sober, it was clear, and he identified exactly what the challenges are and what they need.... The kind of things where he needs help, obviously, are countering the enormous advantage that the Russians have in drones and electronic warfare capability....

"But think about the notion that somehow they're at parity or that there's a stalemate. Russia started this war nine years ago with every advantage, every advantage, and after nine years, soon to be 10 years, they still control only about 17 percent of Ukraine. Their air force has not been able to achieve air superiority or interdict a single train or convoy bringing equipment or ammunition from Poland. The Black Sea fleet is retreating. Already a third of the fleet has had to move from Sevastopol [in Crimea] back to Novorossiysk after just four or three Storm Shadows were used....

"I see they've lost over 320-330,000 people killed and wounded in this war, and just in the last month over 20,000. So that's incredible, especially when you consider that we, the West, in particular the United States and Germany, have not delivered. We're not even committed to Ukraine winning."

The head of Ukrainian intelligence, Kirill Budanov is now saying what the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny voiced last fall. Then, in an article for The Economist, the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine admitted that the conflict around Ukraine had reached a deadlock. In an interview with the same magazine, he said that Ukrainian troops would not be able to achieve a breakthrough at the front. The office of the President of Ukraine criticized these words of Zaluzhny. Budanov was said to have sharply changed his rhetoric about the possibility of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) to confront the Russian Federation in order to gradually prepare society for freezing the conflict. Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky and his office are said to be of the same opinion, but for Zelensky “the time has not yet come to say this.”

Neither Ukraine nor Russia can carry out an offensive due to mining and the active use of UAVs, Ukrainian Military Intelligence chief Budanov said. Budanov noted that modern electronic warfare equipment is needed to suppress UAVs, and special equipment is needed to clear mines. “This brings us back to the issue of production capacity. Nothing is unsolvable, but everything needs to be taken into account,” Budanov said. The military conflict in Ukraine may continue even after 2025. This opinion was expressed by NATO Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoana in an interview 13 January 2024 with the Romanian TV channel Digi-24. “I urge to prepare for a long war, [since] it will be long,” he noted. “This [end of the war] will not happen in 2024, probably will not happen in 2025.” “We don’t see the military ability to achieve a decisive victory on either side in any sense,” Joane continued. “We are looking for a long war with small offensives, counter-offensives, territories won and lost.”

“We were perhaps too enthusiastic and optimistic at the start of the Ukrainian offensive a few months ago, last spring,” he said. “I urge you not to go to the opposite extreme of exaggerated pessimism.

“I don’t think that we will have great difficulties in terms of financing the Ukrainian effort, which is also our effort,” says the NATO Deputy Secretary General. “<...> We have not so much a problem of financing <...> as a problem of industrial capacity, mainly in Europe, because for 30 years we collected peace dividends and thought that after the end of the Cold War everything would be quiet and calm."

The West will lose assets and investments amounting to at least $288 billion if it confiscates frozen Russian assets in order to help in the reconstruction of Ukraine. Moscow subsequently responded to this step, according to what the Russian Information Agency reported 21 January 2024. European Union countries own $223.3 billion of these assets, including $98.3 billion officially owned by Cyprus, $50.1 billion by the Netherlands, and $17.3 billion by Germany. It added that France is also among the five largest European investors in the Russian economy, with assets and investments worth $16.6 billion, and Italy is worth $12.9 billion. British assets in Russia were worth $18.9 billion by the end of 2021. It stated that the United States has assets in Russia worth $9.6 billion until the end of 2022, Japan $4.6 billion, and Canada $2.9 billion. The United States and its allies blocked transactions with the Russian Central Bank and Finance Ministry after President Vladimir Putin sent troops to Ukraine in February 2022, blocking about $300 billion in Russian sovereign assets in the West.

Anders Åslund wrote 26 January 2024 "Ukraine might be causing a turn in the war with Russia by hitting Russia itself, not only bases from which Russia attacks Ukraine, but also key export infrastructure. Incredibly, the US has opposed such attacks, which are probably the best UKraine can and should do."

Native Americans said "the White man speaks with a forked tongue" when Europeans took their land. Donald Trump's MAGA Republicans also speak with a forked tongue about Ukraine. They opposed funding defense assistance, but use entirely specious arguments on American energy exports to Europe. Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) is mostly methane, a potent greenhouse gas. Methane's lifetime in the atmosphere is much shorter than carbon dioxide (CO2), but Methane [CH4] is more efficient at trapping radiation than CO2. Pound for pound, the comparative impact of Methane is 28 times greater than CO2 over a 100-year period.

Mike Johnson's ascension as Speaker of the US House of Representatives was seen as a win for the oil and natural gas industry, which now counts two Louisiana lawmakers among House GOP leadership. One group hailed him as an "American Energy Champion." Johnson had the support of the oil and gas industry; he is expected to be a champion of the industry that plays a crucial role in his home state of Louisiana. He has stated in the past the potential for growing natural gas production in his district to “help sustain the environment.” Louisiana has long been a chief onshore hub for offshore oil and gas drilling in the Gulf of Mexico, which accounts for about 15 percent of the United States’ oil output, while onshore refineries nearby make up about half of the oil-refining and gas-processing capacity for the country.

On 26 January 2024 the Biden-Harris Administration 'announced a temporary pause on pending decisions on exports of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) to non-FTA countries until the Department of Energy can update the underlying analyses for authorizations." The pause was subject to exception for unanticipated and immediate national security emergencies. Once the terminals that have already been approved are built, the volume of LNG exported every day will double. "Through existing LNG production and export infrastructure, the U.S. has – and will continue – to deliver for our allies." The surprise move puts the brakes on 12 proposed LNG facilities, including Calcasieu Pass LNG. Environmental activists had targeted the $10 billion Calcasieu Pass 2 project, or CP2, along Louisiana's Gulf Coast, noting it would be the nation's largest export terminal if built.

Speaker Mike Johnson released the following statement 26 January 2024 after the Biden Administration announced they are placing a pause on pending natural gas export terminals: “This announcement by President Biden is as outrageous as it is subversive. Stalling LNG export terminals, like Calcasieu Pass 2 in Louisiana, not only prevents America’s economic growth, it empowers our adversaries like Vladimir Putin. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began, American petroleum producers have increased LNG shipments to our partners in Europe to prevent a catastrophic, continent-wide energy crisis and to provide an alternative to Russian energy exports. It is outrageous that this administration is asking American taxpayers to spend billions to defeat Russia while knowingly forcing allies to rely on Russian energy, giving Putin an advantage. This policy change also flies in the face of the commitments made when the White House announced the joint US-EU Task Force less than two years ago to reduce Europe’s dependence on Russia and strengthen energy security.”

Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said the pause will not affect already authorized exports. "Nor will it impact our ability to supply our allies in Europe, Asia or other recipients of already authorized exports,'' she said. "We remain committed to ensuring our partners' medium-term energy needs are met." If necessary, the Energy Department can allow exceptions for national security needs, Granholm stated. U.S. exports of liquefied natural gas began less than a decade ago, but have grown rapidly in recent years to the point that the US has become the world's largest gas exporter.