Russo-Ukraine War - April 2024

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A number of claims and counterclaims are being made on the Ukraine-Russia conflict on the ground and online. While GlobalSecurity.org takes utmost care to accurately report this news story, we cannot independently verify the authenticity of all statements, photos and videos.

On 24 February 2022, Ukraine was suddenly and deliberately attacked by land, naval and air forces of Russia, igniting the largest European war since the Great Patriotic War. Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a "special military operation" (SVO - spetsialnaya voennaya operatsiya) in Ukraine. The military buildup in preceeding months makes it obvious that the unprovoked and dastardly Russian attack was deliberately planned long in advance. During the intervening time, the Russian government had deliberately sought to deceive the world by false statements and expressions of hope for continued peace.

"To initiate a war of aggression... is not only an international crime; it is the supreme international crime differing only from other war crimes in that it contains within itself the accumulated evil of the whole." [Judgment of the International Military Tribunal]

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Russia sends soldiers into meat assaults, but does not take back corpses.

The Russian Orthodox Church (Moscow-led) directed all its clergy to change their liturgy to include pro-war prayers in support of Russia defeating Ukraine. Dissenting priests likely to be defrocked. On 01 April 2024, on the Avdiivka front near the village of Tonenke, Russia launched one of the largest armored assaults of the war & suffered catastrophic losses. Russia launched a massive attack with 36 tanks & 12 IFVs on March 30th. Ukraine destroyed 12 tanks & 8 IFVs using drones & artillery.

Aura Sabadus noted that in recent weeks, Russia has launched the largest bombing campaign of the war with a series of major overnight attacks targeting Ukraine’s civilian energy infrastructure. This has resulted in comprehensive damage to the Ukrainian power grid and plunged millions into darkness. Unless Ukraine urgently receives additional air defense systems and ammunition from its Western partners, large parts of the country may soon be on the brink of a humanitarian catastrophe.

Russia’s new air offensive began in the second half of March. It has featured a combination of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and kamikaze drones, with a wide range of infrastructure objects targeted throughout the entire country. The complex nature of the strikes suggests detailed knowledge of Ukraine’s energy system. In a little over a week, this bombing campaign has succeeded in destroying multiple power plants, damaging a gas storage site, and disabling electricity transmission infrastructure across Ukraine.

Despite the ongoing conflict and signs of war fatigue, it was reorted 04 April 2024 a striking 88% of Ukrainians believe their nation will triumph over Russia, according to a nationwide survey conducted on Feb. 17-21 by the Ukrainian polling group Rating on behalf of the International Republican Institute (IRI). While a robust 58% of participants are unequivocally sure of victory, another 30% lean strongly towards a positive result for Ukraine. Even as these numbers have slightly waned since the war's escalation, the sentiment of hope remains significantly potent, with 80% of respondents envisioning a brighter future for Ukraine. Meanwhile, only 45% of Ukrainians remain optimistic about their country regaining its 1991 borders post-war with Russia.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Ukraine "will lose the war" if the United States Congress does not approve military aid to resist the invasion of Russia .

He said this 08 April 2024 during a video meeting of the Ukrainian fund-raising group UNITED24, reports CNN. "It is important to specifically appeal to Congress: if Congress does not help Ukraine, Ukraine will lose the war. If Ukraine loses this war, other countries will be attacked. This is a fact," Zelensky told the meeting participants. Separately, the president warned that "in the coming weeks, Russia will more and more persistently bring nuclear weapons into the discussion, threaten and rattle them."

Franz-Stefan Gadi, a researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told CNN that the war in Ukraine has entered a "transitional phase." "Russia is probing the front lines. It's trying to advance where it can. And it's preparing what appears to be a future offensive," he said. "This year, Ukraine really needs US support. There are certain weapons systems, certain logistical support that European countries simply cannot provide to Ukraine, for example, air defense systems," he said.

Ukraine's chief diplomat Dmytro Kuleba is becoming less diplomatic as he desperately tries to secure additional Patriot air defense systems to protect Ukraine’s cities and civilian infrastructure from Russian bombardment. “Give us the damn Patriots,” he told Politico in late March. Speaking to the Washington Post, Kuleba explained that his tough new tone reflects the growing sense of exasperation felt by many in Kyiv at the apparent lack of urgency among Ukraine’s partners amid growing shortages of vital military aid. “We’ve tried everything, and nothing seems to work,” he commented. “The feeling that extraordinary decisions are needed on a regular basis to end this war with a victory for Ukraine is gone.”

Army Gen. Christopher Cavoli, head of U.S. European Command, told Congress 10 April 2024 that Ukraine will be outgunned 10 to one by Russia within a matter of weeks if Congress does not find a way to approve sending more ammunition and weapons to Kyiv soon.

Whether it’s artillery shells or Patriot missiles, the U.S. simply doesn’t have the resources to produce and provide even half of what Ukraine says it needs to become on par with Russia in the war. This follows from Republican Sen. J. D. Vance’s commentary entitled “The Math on Ukraine Doesn’t Add Up,” published in NYT. “Ukraine’s manpower situation is even worse” than the situation with its munitions, according to Vance. Vance then argues that these disparities must inform any future U.S. policy toward the conflict, “from further congressional aid to the diplomatic course set by the president.” “The Biden administration has no viable plan for the Ukrainians to win this war. The sooner Americans confront this truth, the sooner we can fix this mess and broker for peace,” Vance concludes. Vance’s estimates of what Ukraine says it needs and what the U.S. can supply ignores the European variable in the equation. Europe’s capacity for military assistance to Ukraine cannot fully compensate for declines and delays1 of such aid from the U.S., but they are significant nevertheless.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia was able to destroy a key power plant because Ukraine lacked air defense missiles. Russia was able to destroy the Trypilska thermal power station, one of the biggest suppliers of electricity to the Kyiv region, because of a lack of air defense missiles, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said. "There were 11 missiles flying. We destroyed the first seven, and four (remaining) destroyed Trypilska. Why? Because there were zero missiles. We ran out of missiles to defend Trypilska," he said “European skies could have received the same level of protection long ago if Ukraine had received similar full support from its partners in intercepting drones and missiles,” Zelenskyy wrote in a post on X. “Terror must be defeated completely and everywhere, not more in some places and less in others.”

In an April 18 speech, CIA director William Burns warned that “there is a very real risk that the Ukrainians could lose on the battlefield by the end of 2024” if the U.S. doesn’t resume military aid to Ukraine soon. Once Ukraine is defeated, “I don’t think Putin’s ambitions would stop [on Ukraine]. He is also able to use what he calls ‘hybrid warfare,’ a combination of conventional military threats and efforts to undermine countries, either in NATO or on his borders,” Burns said,

The delivery of U.S. aid is unlikely to dramatically alter Ukraine’s situation on the frontline, Ukrainian officials, soldiers and military analysts told FT after the U.S. House of Representatives approved a $60 billion military aid package for Kyiv on April 20. The package “does not contain a silver bullet,” according to one senior Ukrainian official, so it “will help to slow down the Russian advance, but not stop it.” The aid will “buy us ... about one year,” according to an estimate by Ukraine’s Frontelligence Insight analytical group cited in FT.

The Economist reported 25 April 2024 "A person familiar with the planning says that it would probably take until 2026 or 2027 for Ukraine to develop a serious offensive capacity. In the interim, Ukraine would need to continue to degrade Russian combat power". It will take Europe and the US another year to get munitions production up so Ukraine can actually begin to gain an artillery advantage. April 2024 has arguably been one of the most challenging months for Ukraine since the start of the invasion. Russia is making almost daily gains in Donbas, which has not been the case since the first months of the war. Ukraine is struggling due to a manpower disadvantage caused by delays in the adoption of the new mobilization bill. Due to the delays in American aid, Russia has been enjoying a massive firepower advantage in recent months as well. However, the only really good news for Ukraine is that the United States has finally approved the Ukraine aid bill, which will help Kyiv mitigate the latter issue. In April, Russia continued putting immense pressure on Ukrainian lines in the Donetsk oblast. One of their main focuses is Chasiv Yar, a town west of Bakhmut, which has a major strategic significance. We have dedicated a separate video on the battle of Chasiv Yar, so, you can go ahead and check it out to understand why this battle is so important, but just to reiterate: after capturing Bohdanivka and advancing west of Ivanivske, the Russian army approached Chasiv Yar in April. Military analysts expect the Russians to conduct their offensive in a manner similar to the battle in Bakhmut. They will attempt to attack from the north and the south to cut some of the supply lines into the town, along with launching a frontal assault. The challenge for the Russian army is that Chasiv Yar lies on an elevation, 2:08 which gives Ukrainians a defensive advantage. The town is also protected by a canal in its east, 2:14 but according to several sources, Russians managed to cross it on April 30. If that is true, 2:19 it means that the Russian army is now one step closer to victory in this battle. The capture of 2:25 Chasiv Yar would give the Russian army a great launching pad for further offensive operations 2:30 on the remaining fortress cities of Donbas - Konstantynivka, Druzhkivka and eventually 2:35 Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. The deputy chief of the Ukrainian military intelligence, 2:40 Skibitsky gave a rather sobering assessment of Ukraine’s situation in Chasiv Yar, stating 2:45 in an interview to the Economist that it is probably a matter of time before this town falls. 2:51 Russia also achieved an important advance west of Avdiivka. After losing Avdiivka, 2:56 the Ukrainian army managed to stabilize the situation initially, 3:00 but in April, the Russians managed a breakthrough in this sector. It is reported that on April 22, 3:06 the 47th Mechanized Brigade was pulling back from the frontline village of Ocheretyne to 3:12 be substituted by the 115th Mechanized Brigade, but the error in the timing 3:17 of the rotation or the collapse of the 115th Brigade enabled the 30th and the 27th Russian 3:23 Brigades to swiftly capture most of Ocheretyne. Russians took advantage of this breakthrough and, 3:30 within a week, captured Novobakhmutivka, Berdychi, Semenivka, Novokalynove and Keramik, along with 3:36 occupying Novomykhailovka and entering Netailove and Krasnohorivka further south. According 3:42 to analyst Konrad Muzyka, Russians have brought around 20 new units to the Donetsk oblast to take 3:48 advantage of this success. The only consolation for Ukraine is that Russians did not attempt 3:54 a truly mechanized breakthrough to capitalize on disarray in the Ukrainian lines around Ocheretyne. 4:01 The conventional military wisdom says that if you create a wedge in the enemy’s defences, 4:05 you should send in tanks to push forward to the rear of the enemy, forcing the enemy lines to 4:10 collapse. However, either due to the absence of truly mechanized forces or out of caution, 4:16 the Russian command decided against doing this. They have instead chosen to progress slowly. What 4:22 does this breakthrough mean? The primary goal of the Ocheretyne axis of the Russian attack 4:27 is Pokrovsk - a strategically important supply hub on the intersection of several highways. 4:32 But Pokrovsk is more than 30 kilometres away from the frontline, so barring a truly major 4:38 collapse of the Ukrainian front on this axis, it is not a given that Russians will reach 4:42 this city. If the Russian pressure on Ukrainian defenses in this area becomes too unbearable, 4:48 they will have to retreat to Prohres, the nearest town with the known defensive line along the river 4:53 Vovche. Russians are also pushing along the E50 highway and along the N15 highway to Kurakhove, 4:59 another important supply hub. The further the Russians advance, the further supply problems 5:05 Ukrainian forces between those highways are going to have, forcing them to withdraw to avoid 5:09 encirclement. So, at this point, the Russians are putting immense pressure on the Ukrainian defenses 5:15 on a broad front, from Chasiv Yar to Heorhiivka. A Ukrainian collapse anywhere on this front might be 5:21 disastrous for their defense of Donbas. Ukraine is facing arguably the most threatening situation on 5:27 the battlefield since the early days of the war. The situation on other fronts in Ukraine has 5:33 remained stable. Russia has seemingly given up on its attempts to advance on the North Luhansk 5:38 front. After months of fighting, hundreds of destroyed equipment and thousands of 5:44 dead and injured, Russia failed to achieve any meaningful success in the Kupiansk axis. They 5:49 have reportedly withdrawn some units from this area and have redeployed them to Belgorod oblast, 5:55 possibly in preparation for an attack on Kharkiv. Statements of Putin and the Russian foreign 6:00 minister Lavrov about the necessity to create a cordon sanitaire along the border with Ukraine in 6:06 order to prevent Ukraine from shelling the Russian territory, along with reports about the massing 6:11 of forces in Belgorod, indicate that Russia may indeed attack Kharkiv. But even if they do not, 6:17 these speculations force Ukrainians to commit troops to the defense of Kharkiv. Russians did 6:22 the same thing earlier with Kyiv, prompting Ukrainians to deploy more troops to their 6:26 northern border. On the Zaporizhia front, Russia has not managed any meaningful gains in April, 6:32 as battles are still going on in the same areas - Robotyne, Verbove and Urozhaine. Along Dnipro, 6:39 Ukraine still maintains a small bridgehead in Krynki, which has become a sight of costly 6:44 battles for both sides. WHAT CAUSED THE RUSSIAN 6:47 BREAKTHROUGH IN DONETSK OBLAST? So, what has caused the Russian 6:49 breakthrough in Donetsk oblast? Military analysts point out three main reasons. First of all, 6:55 manpower disadvantage. The Ukrainian commander General Lieutenant Sodol stated in the Ukrainian 7:01 parliament that Russians have a 7-10-fold manpower advantage in some areas of the battlefield. In 7:07 some cases, a brigade has to defend a 15-kilometer line instead of a 5 kilometer line. This obviously 7:14 puts a massive strain on Ukrainian forces and stretches them to their limits. But why 7:19 has that happened? Why do Ukrainians have fewer soldiers? Well, it is a self-inflicted problem 7:24 to a large extent. The Ukrainian government has been trying to avoid making the unpopular decision 7:30 of adopting a mobilization bill and even after concluding that the only way of going forward 7:35 is the draft of more Ukrainians into the army, the decision-making process has been very slow. 7:41 The Ukrainian opposition in the parliament also campaigned against some provisions of the bill, 7:46 further delaying the process. War, by definition, is full of unpopular decisions. In some cases, 7:52 you cannot simply avoid them. If you intend to fight and give yourself a chance of success, you 7:57 have to make these hard decisions, often having to choose between two or more evils, even if it 8:03 harms your reputation and political career. After months of stalling and deliberation, on April 11, 8:10 the Ukrainian parliament finally adopted the mobilization bill lowering the draft age from 8:15 27 to 25, which expanded the pool of available manpower for the Ukrainian army. Zelensky signed 8:21 the bill on April 16. Thousands of Ukrainians have fled the war to Poland and Lithuania, the 8:28 governments of which have offered to repatriate Ukrainian men to make them available to be drafted 8:33 into the Ukrainian army. Some decisions are being made, but it will take weeks or even months before 8:38 existing Ukrainian brigades are replenished and the new ones are created, so, Ukraine may continue 8:44 facing manpower shortages for the upcoming weeks at the least. The second cause of Ukrainian 8:50 troubles on the battlefield is pretty obvious and by now well documented too. The delay of American 8:56 military aid. Europe has compensated for this delay to an extent, but its military industrial 9:02 capacity is just not big enough to supply the Ukrainian army on a sufficient level. There are 9:08 significant shortages of artillery shells and air defense systems and missiles. According to the US 9:14 European Command (EUCOM) Commander General Christopher Cavoli, Russia currently has a 9:19 five-to-one artillery advantage on the battlefield and it could become a 10 to 1 advantage, if the 9:24 US fails to send shells to Ukraine. The lack of air defense systems forces the Ukrainian command 9:30 to decide between protecting cities, energy infrastructure, industrial enterprises and 9:35 other key components of the Ukrainian livelihood. The lack of mobile and short range air defense 9:41 systems closer to the contact line have allowed the Russian fighters and bombers to roam the 9:45 skies of the frontlines like never before in this war. The lack of air defense missiles 9:50 forces Ukraine to ration and prevents them from shooting down Russian missiles and drones. All of 9:56 this continues having a very tangible impact on Ukraine’s desperate attempts to defend. Zelensky 10:02 insists that Ukraine needs 26 Patriots launchers to have air protection throughout the country, but 10:08 it seems like the initial urgent goal is to get 7 Patriots as soon as possible. The foreign minister 10:14 Kuleba’s frustration with his western counterparts was vivid during the meeting celebrating NATO’s 10:20 75th anniversary: “I’m sorry to spoil the birthday party, but who can believe that the mightiest 10:26 military alliance in the world cannot find seven batteries of Patriots to provide them to the only 10:31 country in the world that is fighting ballistic attacks every day?” He then added: “I feel myself 10:37 hitting the wall with my own head, although I’m a diplomat, and that means I have to dismantle the 10:42 wall brick by brick”. So far, despite heavy diplomatic activity only Germany pledged an 10:49 additional Patriot system in April, along with promising more air defense missiles, while the 10:54 Dutch prime minister Rutte offered to buy Patriot systems from countries which do not wish to give 10:59 them to Kyiv directly. The German Diehl Defense company has also pledged to send another Iris-T 11:06 in the upcoming weeks. F-16s pledged by several allies have obviously not arrived in Ukraine yet, 11:12 but they would help considerably in preventing the Russian jets from operating freely on the 11:17 frontlines, along with shooting down Russian missiles. The timeline of arrival of promised 11:22 F-16s is not clear yet, whether in order to take advantage of an element of surprise or due to 11:28 some unknown logistical or training-related delays. The Dutch defense minister has said 11:33 that the allies hope to deliver the jets in the Summer, which Zelensky claims to cover 11:38 only 10% of the number of jets that Ukraine needs. But the situation for Ukraine may change with the 11:44 breakthrough in Washington. After months of delays and negotiations, the US Congress finally approved 11:51 61 billion of dollars for aid to Ukraine on April 21. A few days later, the Senate did the same. 11:58 23 billion dollars would be spent on restocking the US military, which would allow the Americans 12:03 to send military equipment from the Pentagon’s reserves. 14 billion dollars will be allocated 12:09 to the Ukraine Security Assistance initiative enabling the US military to purchase new weapons 12:14 for Kyiv directly from the US defense companies. 11 billion will be spent on funding the existing 12:20 American military operations in the region and supporting Ukraine with intelligence. Finally, 12:25 up to 8 billion will be given to Kyiv to help maintain government services, 12:29 including the payment of salaries and pensions. Ukraine is relieved to finally get a decision they 12:35 expected from Washington, but as you can see, not all of the money allocated by the Congress 12:40 will actually be spent on Ukraine. Moreover, it may take weeks for the American aid to arrive, 12:46 which are weeks that the Kremlin will look to exploit to push further. Many question whether 12:51 this aid alone will be sufficient to even achieve firepower parity with the Russian army or if the 12:56 United States commits to further military aid in case the war goes on for even longer. For now, the 13:02 US has already announced military aid packages, which contain some of the immediate equipment 13:07 that the Ukrainian army desperately needs. On April 24, they pledged RIM-7 and AIM-9M air 13:13 defense missiles, Stinger anti-aircraft missiles and artillery shells of different kinds. The third 13:20 cause of the recent Russian success is attributed to the poor defensive lines that the Ukrainian 13:25 army has. In previous videos, we have talked about this issue in more detail, but just to reiterate 13:31 the main problems that Ukraine faces in this regard - the construction of fortifications is 13:36 often slow due to money and personnel shortages; Ukrainian soldiers are often forced to do the work 13:43 under intense enemy fire; the Russian glide bombs have so far proved to be very potent 13:48 against Ukrainian fortifications; the Ukrainian defense continues to rely mostly on strongholds, 13:53 which are vulnerable to flanking and once a stronghold falls or breached, there is often no 13:59 alternative defensive lines nearby to fall back to. Ukraine’s summer 2023 counteroffensive has 14:05 proven the advantage of continuous defensive lines consisting of minefields, trenches and 14:10 fortifications against offensive operations. What about the Russian army? Ukrainian soldiers 14:16 on the frontlines and many military analysts conclude that the Russian army has been learning 14:21 from its mistakes and adapting to the situation way better than during the early disastrous months 14:26 of the war. Obviously, the manpower advantage is also making a decisive difference at the moment. 14:33 The Russian ministry of defense claims that 100k Russians have signed contracts to join the army in 14:38 2024. Rumours of further personnel mobilization in Russia continue to circulate. According to 14:45 the US European Command (EUCOM) Commander General Christopher Cavoli, the Russian invasion force 14:49 has increased from 360k men to 470k in comparison with 2023. Bloomberg reported about the increase 14:58 of one-time payments for contracts signed with the military to almost 5000 dollars, which is a major 15:04 sum for an ordinary Russian. This is accompanied by increased military production in Russia, 15:09 which we have discussed in previous videos. In his interview to the Economist, Skibitskyi noted 15:14 that Russia’s military production has increased, but will reach its full potential in 2026, which 15:20 is a long time from now and much will depend on the ability and willingness of Ukraine’s western 15:24 allies to continue supporting Kyiv in the mid and long-term. The war in Ukraine has made joining 15:30 the military and the military industrial complex attractive options for many Russians, particularly 15:36 those suffering from lower standards of living. Along with the increased production, Russians are 15:41 also adapting their equipment to the challenges arising on the battlefield. According to reports, 15:47 the effectiveness of Excalibur GPS-guided munitions has decreased from 70% early on in their 15:52 use to a mere 6% due to the improvement of Russian electronic warfare tools. We have seen many videos 15:59 of Russian armor being destroyed by FPV drones and Russians have been looking for solutions to 16:04 protect them. Lately, they have been adding metal defensive covers on tanks and armored vehicles. 16:10 They look amusing, but they actually manage to protect their vehicles to a certain extent. So, 16:15 the Russian army is adapting, but this does not mean that Russian mobilized soldiers have suddenly 16:19 started fighting better than the professional soldiers they had at the beginning of the war 16:24 or that Shoigu and other Russian generals have suddenly become better commanders and strategists. 16:29 No, the key reason for the recent Russian success is the overwhelming manpower and 16:33 firepower advantage arising from the reasons we have already discussed. 16:38 MILITARY PRODUCTION AND FOREIGN AID We have already mentioned some information 16:40 about foreign military aid to Ukraine delivered or pledged in April, the highlight of which is 16:45 obviously the American decision that we talked about earlier. The first American military aid 16:50 package since the signing of the Ukraine aid bill included Bradley Infantry fighting vehicles, MRAP 16:55 vehicles; Humvees, TOW missiles, Javelin and AT-4 anti-tank guns, mines and other vital equipment, 17:02 along with earlier mentioned sending artillery shells and air defense missiles. But perhaps more 17:07 importantly, Americans have confirmed the delivery of an unspecified number of ATACMS missiles with 17:13 a 300-km range. Ukraine has already used them on high value targets in April. The US has also 17:20 announced the transfer of weapons seized from Iran, which consisted of small arms and bullets 17:25 for them, along with approving the potential sale of equipment to modernize Kyiv’s HAWK air defense 17:30 systems. On April 26, the Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin announced America’s largest yet military 17:37 aid package, which includes ammunition for Patriot, HIMARS and NASAMS, artillery shells, 17:43 anti-drone equipment and air to surface missiles. Lastly, Americans have also reportedly purchased 17:50 81 outdated Su-24, Mig-29 and Mig-27 fighter jets from Kazakhstan, which are expected to 17:57 be delivered to Ukraine for use as spare parts. On April 3, the Finnish president Stubb signed a 18:03 10-year security deal with Ukraine and pledged 188 million euros worth of military aid and an 18:10 additional 290 million euros for humanitarian purposes. A day later, Latvia announced sending 18:17 1 million euros worth of drones and a 22.2 million euro-worth military aid package. Latvia has also 18:23 signed a security agreement with Ukraine, wherein Riga commits to sending 0.25% of its annual GDP 18:30 to Ukraine. On April 6, Latvia’s Baltic neighbors stepped up too. Lithuania delivered an unspecified 18:37 number of M577 armored personnel carriers, while Estonia’s defense minister Pevkur announced their 18:44 intention to coordinate the purchase of one million shells for the Ukrainian army. It is 18:49 important to note that this initiative is separate from the similar Czech endeavor launched earlier. 18:54 On April 9, the German Rheinmetall corporation announced the delivery of 20 more Marder Infantry 19:00 Fighting vehicles, while the German government pledged to send 6000 155mm artillery shells, 19:07 small arms and other equipment. Denmark also took several steps to improve the situation of 19:13 the Ukrainian military. First, on April 16, they announced a 313 million dollar worth military aid 19:17 package, while 3 days later the Danish government allocated almost 30 million dollars for purchase 19:25 of military equipment produced in Ukraine, by Ukrainian companies. The purpose was to aid both 19:31 the Ukrainian army and its military industrial production. According to the Ukrainian minister 19:37 of strategic industries Kamyshin, the Ukrainian budget lags behind the country’s capacity to 19:42 produce military equipment and Western allies may help to bridge this gap. Ukraine has been taking 19:49 important steps in increasing domestic military production focusing on production of drones, 19:54 but they are stepping up in other areas too. According to Zelensky, for the 19:58 first time, Ukraine has produced 10 Bohdana self-propelled howitzers in a single month. 20:04 On April 17, Canada pledged to provide more than 1 billion dollars worth of military aid over the 20:10 next 5 years. On April 23, Britain announced a 500-million pound military aid package to Kyiv, 20:17 its largest since the start of the war. It includes over 400 unspecified vehicles, 20:23 ammunition, 60 boats, air defense equipment, Storm Shadow long-range missiles and Paveway 20:28 IV laser-guided bombs compatible with F-16 jets. On April 26, Norway announced funding 20:35 for maintenance of Leopard tanks in Poland, while Australia declared a 100 million Australian dollar 20:41 military aid package, which includes drones, short range air defense, precision munition and so on. 20:48 Meanwhile, China is reportedly becoming more and more supportive of Russia, despite its earlier 20:53 attempts to appear neutral. The Chinese leader Xi Jinping has called on Europe to stop giving 20:58 weapons to Ukraine and start negotiating with Russia. According to Bloomberg, 21:03 China is helping Russia with dual use technology like microelectronics, optics, machine tools, 21:09 propellants for missiles and nitrocellulose used in the production of gunpowder and explosives. 21:14 During his visit to China and meeting with Xi, the US Secretary of state Blinken urged China 21:20 to stop supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine. But it is not entirely clear how Washington is going 21:26 to persuade Beijing to do that. THE ASYMMETRIC WARFARE CONTINUES 21:28 In the meantime, the sides continued to engage in long-range strikes and conduct asymmetric warfare 21:34 to wear each other down, damage critical assets and weaken the adversary’s ability to continue 21:40 fighting. For the past few months, Russia has been mostly targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. 21:46 According to Ukraine’s prime minister Shmyhal, Russian missile and drone attacks have destroyed 21:51 or damaged almost 80% of the production capacity of Ukrainian thermal power plants. Between March 21:58 22 and 29, Russia targeted 7 Thermal power plants and 2 hydro power plants, 22:04 as Ukraine’s struggles with air defense has enabled the Russians to permanently destroy 22:09 some of the country’s critical infrastructure. On April 11, Russia launched another devastating 22:14 airborne attack using more than 80 missiles, including the newest Kh-69 missile and drones to 22:21 destroy Kyiv’s Trypillya thermal power plant, which supplied energy to Kyiv, Zhytomyr and 22:26 Cherkasy oblasts. Two more thermal power plants were also damaged in West Ukraine as a result of 22:32 this attack. Another major attack on the Ukrainian power grid was launched on April 26, which 22:38 targeted the infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk, Ivano-Frankivsk and Lviv oblasts. Ukrainians 22:44 are already experiencing power shortages, even though the western allies are trying to alleviate 22:49 the situation by giving emergency aid to Ukraine. Ukraine’s critical infrastructure will continue to 22:55 be vulnerable to missile and drone strikes until it has more air defense systems and missiles. 23:01 Also according to Western governments and media outlets, Russia has been attempting 23:06 and carrying out various sabotage operations to disrupt production and delivery of military 23:11 aid to Ukraine. There have been reports of cyber attacks on Czech, Romanian, Latvian, Lithuanian, 23:18 and Estonian railway companies. The Swedish police are investigating two earlier cases of railway 23:23 derailments in the country. Poland has reportedly thwarted an attempt of sabotage on its railways as 23:29 well. On April 18, Der Spiegel reported about the arrest of two individuals in Bavaria accused of 23:36 planning a sabotage at German military industrial facilities and American military infrastructure in 23:41 Germany. On the same day, an explosion occurred at Britain’s only 155-mm shell-producing plant, 23:49 two days after a fire broke out at the Scranton Ammunition plant in the United States. The purpose 23:54 of these sabotage operations is to disrupt Western military production destined for Ukraine, along 24:00 with damaging the railway infrastructure, which is key to the supply of military equipment to Kyiv. 24:06 While Russian long-range strikes mostly target the Ukrainian power grid, Kyiv is focusing on 24:11 Russian oil refineries, military plants and other high value targets like air defense systems and 24:16 aircraft. Blinken has already publicly stated that the United States does not support Ukrainian 24:22 attacks on Russian oil refineries. It is tough to understand the long-term impact of these attacks 24:28 and whether Russia will be able to quickly restore the lost production capacity, but so far, it is 24:33 estimated that they have lost some 15% of its oil refining capacity. This has reportedly forced them 24:40 to purchase gasoline from Kazakhstan and Belarus as a contingency for potential shortages on the 24:45 domestic market. On April 2 and 26, Ukraine attacked an oil refinery in Nizhnekamsk and 24:51 two more oil refineries in Krasnodar Krai. Also on April 2, a Ukrainian UJ-22 drone hit the Russian 24:59 Shahed drone production facility in Yelabuga, Tatarstan. On April 6, another drone attack was 25:05 launched on several airfields, which, according to Ukrainian sources, destroyed 6 Russian fighter 25:10 jets. On April 17, an ATACMS strike on the Dzankoi air base in Crimea reportedly damaged or destroyed 25:18 Russian air defense infrastructure, including 4 S-400 air defense launchers. On April 18, 25:24 Ukrainians destroyed the first Russian Tu-22M3 strategic bomber in this war. The Ukrainian 25:32 army now also has ATACMS missiles and it will be interesting to see how they will 25:36 be used given the American condition of not launching them on Russian territory. 25:41 CONCLUSION Since the start of 2024, Russia 25:44 has captured more than 360 square kilometers of Ukrainian land. It is clear that they have the 25:50 upper hand on the battlefield at this moment and have already achieved two important victories in 25:55 2024, in Avdiivka in February and in Ocheretyne in April, amidst Ukraine’s troubles with manpower and 26:01 weapon shortages. Battles of Chasiv Yar and west of Ocheretyne are the ones to watch at the moment 26:08 and carry a grave threat to the Ukrainian defense of Donbas. Putin has already admitted that it 26:13 does not make sense for Russia to negotiate with Ukraine at a time when they carry the strategic 26:18 momentum on the battlefield. At this point, Ukraine has to brace for defending for at least 26:23 another few months, before the mobilization and the American aid may create a different situation 26:29 on the battlefield. But make no mistake, Ukraine is facing its most difficult moment since the 26:34 start of the war. Now let’s look at the visually documented losses on both sides compiled by Oryx 26:40 military blog. As of May 2, Russia has lost at least 2948 tanks, 6402 vehicles, 276 command posts 26:51 and communication stations, 1202 artillery systems and vehicles, 369 multiple rocket launchers, 26:59 109 aircraft and 137 helicopters. Ukraine has lost at least 797 tanks, 2517 vehicles, 27:09 18 command posts and communication stations, 556 artillery systems and vehicles, 62 multiple rocket 27:16 launchers, 86 aircraft and 44 helicopters. Kings and Generals @isaacrussell3143 2 days ago I do think there is a fourth cause. Russia has made some improvements tactically and operationally. They have changed unit size, used armour in new ways, have improved their deployment of EW, better utilized FPVs, upgraded old dumb bombs with glide kits, and ramped up domestic production. Russia is still not an army capable of mobile warfare on multiple salients, but they are becoming more effective at attritional warfare. @NLTops 1 day ago A "cordon sanitaire" would be meaningless. They would have to conquer all of Ukraine if they want to make it impossible for Ukraine to hit Russia. How far away was the furthest Russian refinery hit again? Also, that quote implies that Russian-controlled Ukraine are not its legitimate territories. So on that note, can Russia go back home? That's a quicker way to stop Ukrainians from firing drones and missiles at refineries. t ukraine need 26 patriot batteries instead of launchers or will just 26 launchers cover the whole of Ukraine? My understanding was that the y needed 26 batteries each having 6 8 launchers and their own radar sustems and control modules.