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NBA 2025-26 Case Study —
Portland Trail Blazers

How do the Blazers get better?

After a promising 6-5 start, with Jrue Holiday lending a veteran savvy to a young roster, the Blazers have gone 6-12 since then with Jrue sidelined. Putting the Blazers through an 8-Game Physicality & Playing Hard Case Study, some things are clear:

  • 1–7 in Physicality (net wins on a game by game basis)
  • 0–8 in Playing Hard: — flashes of effort, and four strong individual performers, but need more from the full rotation.
  • Quiet positives: foundational pieces in place, and very fixable player development opportunities abound.

» Full 8-game Blazers Physicality & Playing Hard Report


Dec 14: New Orleans vs Chicago
Physicality/Playing Hard Game Report

Karlo Matkovic played the entire fourth quarter and led all players in RHP36 (and net Physicality Wins) to spark the Pelicans

→ NOP vs CHI Game Report (New Orleans perspective)

→ NOP vs CHI Game Report (Chicago perspective)


The Secret Behind OKC’s Defense: Microwins

Devin Booker wasn’t kidding: “The secret is out. They speed you up.”
We charted thousands of physicality and playing-hard microwins across a series of Thunder games — revealing exactly why opponents are suffocating under OKC’s pressure.

→ Full OKC Microwins Report


NBA 2025-26 Case Study —
New Orleans Pelicans

Why the Pelicans Are Losing — 5 Coaching Factors (9-Game Case Study)

After an 0-6 start, with Zion listed as out for the next 7-10 days, and Willie Green under pressure, it felt like the right time to put the Pelicans under the Roland 5 Coaching Factors microscope. I tracked nine straight games, logging every physical play, effort play, decision, make/miss and whistle.

In that 2–7 stretch the data tells a very clear story:

  • 0–9 at the rim (-53 Physicality wins) — opponents own the restricted area every night.
  • Decision-Making: 2–7 (-152 wins) — young guards and non-Zion lineups gift too many easy possessions.
  • Playing Hard: 4–5 (-51 wins) — flashes of effort, but losing overall and especially on the offensive movement energy plays.
  • Quiet positives: four strong Physicality sub-categories and very encouraging early signs from rookies Derik Queen and Jeremiah Fears.
Games in the Study:

» Full 9-game Pelicans 5 Coaching Factors Report

Can you really measure heart, hustle, and toughness?
The Roland 5 Coaching Factors tracking system aims to do exactly that: Physicality, Playing Hard, Decision Making, Shotmaking, and Referee Effects. Across many games from the 2024–25 season and playoffs the numbers have been highly predictive of who wins:

  • Winning the “Playing Hard” effort count won the game about 85% of the time.
  • The better “Decision Making” team has been winning at roughly 80%.
  • More Physicality Wins has meant a win around 75% of the time.


Roland Five Coaching Factors: EUROBASKET
Often you hear it said that you can’t measure heart, hustle, or toughness.
The Roland 5 Coaching Factors tracking system aims to prove otherwise — breaking every game down into five key areas: Physicality, Playing Hard, Decision Making, Shotmaking, and Referee Effects.

In these eight games, the team winning the "Decision Making" is 8-0, the "Playing Hard" winner is 7-1. The better Shotmaking team is 6-1 (one tie), the Physicality winner is 6-2, and it is also 6-2 for the Referee Effects winner.

Is Eurobasket more physical than the NBA? Too small a sample to tell, but by one simple measure — Falls — the answer is yes (so far). There have been 48.6 Falls per 48 minutes in these Eurobasket games, compared to 39.3 falls per 48 minutes in the 2024 NBA Playoffs.

Top Player Performances: (single game)
  — Physicality Net Wins: Giannis +27, Theis +15
  — Playing Hard Wins: Schroder 28, Giannis 25
  — Decision Making: Schroder +17, Schroder +17
  — Shotmaking: Osmani +9, Osman +8
  — Referee Effects: Giannis +5, Kostas Antetokounmpo +5

  Raw Physicality Wins — Giannis 48, Sengun 34
  Ref Argues — Doncic 10, Sengun 7
  Knockdowns — Giannis 12, Theis 7
  Falls — Schroder 10, Giannis 9


The Roland Five Coaching Factors:
Quantifying Effort, Physicality, and Decision-Making in the NBA

Often you hear it said that you can’t measure heart, hustle, or toughness.
The Roland 5 Coaching Factors tracking system aims to prove otherwise — breaking every game down into five key areas: Physicality, Playing Hard, Decision Making, Shotmaking, and Referee Effects.

“What’s Possible” – Single-Game Highs Seen So Far:
Factor
Regular Season
Playoffs
Physicality Wins   Sengun 46   Giannis 46 (vs IND, Gm 5)
Physicality Net Wins   M.Williams +27   LeBron +22 (vs MIN, Gm 4)
Playing Hard Wins   LaMelo 28   Hart 25 (vs DET, Gm 4)
"20/20"   Adebayo +20 Phys. net wins, 20 PH wins (vs ATL, Play-In)

Shout-out to LaMelo Ball who also has the highest Decision Making game seen so far at +21 net wins -- if he stays healthy (a big IF) can Charlotte surprise in '25-26 against the low expectations?

And in case you are wondering, Nikola Jokic has the second highest playoff raw Physicality Wins we've seen at 45 (vs OKC, game 5), while Jimmy Butler III had a huge +21 net wins game (vs MEM in the play-in). Second highest playoff Playing Hard wins? That was also Josh Hart !

Sample Game Reports:



"ROLAND PHYSICALITY RATINGS"

Revolutionary tracking of what EVERYONE is talking about -- the PHYSICALITY in the NBA Playoff games. Tracking over forty types of contact, aggression, and resilience to produce groundbreaking new stats and ratings!

PACERS/THUNDER NBA Finals Report
A series that sadly ended with a crushing injury that left us with a lot of "what ifs" -- but congratulations to the Thunder on an amazing season. What can we learn from the Physicality/Playing Hard numbers?


Quick Overview

  • Oklahoma City won the physicality on a game by game basis 4-3. They also took the "playing hard energy" wins by the same 4-3 margin.

  • The team with the better Physicality score was 5-2, while the team with the most "Playing Hard Wins" was 7-0.

  • Shai led all players with 226 Physicality Wins, followed by Siakam (164), Turner (140), Holmgren (134) and Jalen Williams (132). Siakam led in Net Wins with +33. Hartenstein led in Net Wins per 36 min.

  • Siakam was the top "playing hard energy plays" leader with 63 PH Wins, followed by Caruso (55), Holmgren (52), Haliburton (47), and Nembhard (43).

  • Siakam dominated Jalen Williams Head-to-Head (+19 wins), while Shai was +20 net wins against the five IND starters (only losing H2H to Siakam).



Minnesota/LA Lakers Series Notes
Yes the T'Wolves took it 4-1, but the games were closer than that suggests, and one player stood out on the Physicality front (and no it wasn't Gobert, Rudy's dominant game 5 performance notwithstanding)

Player Physicality Stats

Per 36 Minute stats
Player
Wins
Net Wins
RPR
Wins
L2+
Net Wins
LeBron James
140
+66
63.3
24.7
6.4
+11.6
Rudy Gobert
110
+22
65.7
27.7
5.0
+5.5
Anthony Edwards
119
+15
51.2
20.9
3.7
+2.6
Mike Conley
43
+4
29.2
12.9
0.6
+1.2
Luka Doncic
151
+6
60.4
26.1
2.4
+1.0
Julius Randle
111
+5
52.6
21.1
6.3
+1.0



NBA physicality now vs then NBA Physicality: Now vs Then
To try and understand how the game may have changed through the years we recently charted twenty playoff games from the 1990's for the same falls and knockdowns data we compiled for the complete 2024 playoffs...



2024 NBA Playoffs "Falls & Knockdowns"
Our game charting team has collectively watched all the playoff games, recording such novel data points as Player Falls and Knockdowns, along with relevant context and nuance. A clean, relatively objective physicality rating can be constructed with Falls+Knockdowns per 36 Minutes...

Most Physical Least Physical
12.3 - Daniel Gafford
12.0 - Lu Dort
11.9 - Joel Embiid
11.8 - Devin Booker
11.4 - Kyle Lowry
11.1 - Jalen Suggs
10.7 - Aaron Nesmith
 9.7 - Khris Middleton
 9.6 - Tyrese Maxey
 8.9 - Isaiah Hartenstein
1.8 - D'Angelo Russell
1.8 - Tobias Harris
1.9 - Sam Hauser
2.0 - Rui Hachimura
2.9 - Cason Wallace
3.0 - Tim Hardaway Jr.
3.0 - Aaron Gordon
3.0 - Austin Reaves
3.0 - Christian Braun
3.1 - Ben Sheppard

See the full stats for every player, the top ten leaderboards in a variety of categories, and more in this groundbreaking series. Which player gets a foul call the most when he falls? the answer is...


“I thought their physicality and their pressure stood out, especially early,” Oklahoma City head coach Mark Daigneault said. “They definitely threw the first punch of the game, and that had a lot to do with it. Schematically, they were a little different, but not a ton. They were more forceful on the offensive end and defensive end of the floor, and that was a tough combination for us.

Chet Holmgren on the physicality these playoffs: "It feels like how we used to play at the park. There's no playing for a foul out there. You gotta play for a bucket. If you played to get a foul at the park, someone would just take the ball and go home."

"I thought the game was reffed very physically," Adelman says. "I thought we joined the party late." DA says when you join the party late, refs see the physicality as reactionary"

"This is how we've played all year," Magic guard Anthony Black said about the physicality of the series vs. Boston. "We like to touch people on defense, we're into the ball, we pick up. That's just the style of basketball we play."

Jaylen Brown said a fight might break out because the games have been so physical. He said if the Magic want to do that, they can fight it out for the right to get to the second round.

Luka Doncic: "Going into Minnesota will be a war. ... We can't panic"

"Toughness and physicality is the staple of the city and the staple of the team. It's something that we need to embrace." Scotty Pippen Jr.

"If you look around the playoffs right now, it's super physical," Finch told reporters. "To me, they've gone way too far on the physicality."

The Warriors made it a point not to complain about Houston's physicality postgame...understanding that this series will need to be won in a rugged environment when it restarts in San Francisco. "

TJ McConnell: "he's like, 'You're going to pick everyone up full court, and that's what you're going to hang your hat on.' And it's something that I've created an identity about."

Kevon Looney on physicality: "It's the playoffs, I'm gonna grab and push until they call it'"

I didn't see the flagrant," Mosley said, "Two guys were going for the block and I think it was just the fall [that] was probably what set it off more than anything."

Aaron Gordon was pretty critical of the whistle. Says the Thunder are fouling every possession and refs are often calling the second foul

"They do a lot of fouling, shoving, holding, pushing and tackling Rudy," Finch said after practice Wednesday. "That's clear. We sent a bunch of those clips into the league. In fact, I'm not sure I know another player in the league with Rudy's pedigree that is allowed to be physically beaten on the way he is. And so we've got to address that one way or another."

"I was upset the first 10 minutes of the game. It was just like Houston all over again," Kerr said of Game 1. "They were bear-hugging Steph (Curry), and they could have called six fouls."

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