Roland NBA Physicality Report

Five "Coaching Factors" Summary

• INDIANA won the day on the "physicality" front, although it was the Bucks' Giannis who had a game high 46 physicality wins, followed by Haliburton 31, Turner 29, Siakam 26, Portis 20.


• The Pacers also had a huge edge in the highly predictive "playing hard" effort plays. The "PH Wins per 36min" leaders were McConnell 19.1, Toppin 16.2, Nesmith 16.0


• MILWAUKEE had a slight edge in Shotmaking where they were +2 net points, but they were +18 points on their own 3s, and -14 on their own midrange shots (3-20, 15%), so tossed back most of the big advantage on threes by high volume erratic midrange.


• If there's one specific area of physicality you want to win, the evidence is it's the hounding ballhandlers/swipes at ball and the Bucks were +2 wins there, albeit with a lot of fouls, so the net edge was in the Pacers' favor.


• Roland Hard Play Score Leaders: Antetokounmpo 37, Haliburton 30, Turner 24.

Team Physicality Summary

Winner: INDIANA

Tracking over forty types of contact, aggression, and resilience

Header notes:
RPR = "Roland Physicality Rating" (in development), Wins = a Physicality play that is deemed a 'win', L/D = Losses/Defeats (non-intentional fouls and soft plays), L2+ = level 2 or higher force physicality plays, Falls = player hits the ground, KD = Knockdowns: causes opponent to hit the ground

Notable Team Physicality Details

1. INDIANA a strong game on screens/fighting over screens category (trending at 63% predictive) with +10 wins , led by Turner with 8 wins, and Siakam with 4.


2. The Pacers also strong on bumps/pushes/grabs/get frees with +6 wins, and another +4 wins on postups (Off+Def -- Siakam 7).


3. Finally Indiana was dominant at +10 wins on drives/absorbing drives, with Haliburton finding it easy pickings at times with 15 offensive wins.


4. MILWAUKEE were on top with rebounding physicality plays at +4, led by Giannis and Portis with 6 wins each. They also eeked out a +1 win in the verticality game (finishing at the rim/protecting the rim), on Giannis' game high 8 wins.


5. As stated in the summary, the ball pressure category was a mixed bag with the Bucks having a few more wins, but with a lot more fouls. Nembhard and Giannis both had 3 wins to be the top players.


6. The Bucks were +5 on Knockdowns with Giannis the leader with 12. Five other players had 5 knockdowns. Giannis also led in falls for the game with 9. For "Net Knocks" (your Knockdowns minus your Falls) the leaders were Turner +4, Giannis +3, Green +2.


7. In Head-to-Head Physicality Giannis was +5 net wins against both Siakam and Nesmith, while Haliburton was +4 against both Trent and Porter Jr.

Player Physicality Stats

INDIANA PACERS

MILWAUKEE BUCKS

Physicality as a Foundation—Not Yet a Final Word

• Why are the "Playing Hard" wins seemingly so significant? (the team with the better game score has won over 80% in our sample of games). Are there compounding effects when multiple PH stars are in the game together?


• Should teams put more emphasis on the Hard Play guys in roster construction? (And shout-out to all the important UNDRAFTED hustle players in the Finals: Dort, Caruso, McConnell -- pay attention for the next Vegas Summer League breakouts! )


• Will other teams seek to up their ball pressure/swipes at the ball seeing the OKC success and runaway turnover edge numbers? Is this a skill that can be coached up, or does OKC have players who are especially well suited to the job?


• Can we identify player archetypes —like a Tyrese Haliburton— who challenge certain players like a Kevin Porter Jr.? Is there consistency in head to head physicality dominance?


• Will the Bucks having two dominating physicality players in Giannis and Turner offset a roster where the other players are in some cases light on physicality? We expect bigs to dole out some heavy force plays, but does having wings and guards who also bring higher magnitudes of force carry extra juice in the playoffs?


• Shai's performance in the playoffs was masterful but how dependent is he on current officiating? His go-to "clear out space for a jumper with his forearm shove" never got whistled for an offensive foul or a travel in the finals. How can players maximize the referee effects in their favor?

What Kind of Physicality Wins?

• Winning the “Playing Hard” effort count won the game 84% of the time!
• Physicality Rating (RPR): Teams winning this stat won the game 73% of the time.
• Total Physicality Wins: 71% game win rate.
• Level 2+ Force Plays: Just 37% win rate. May suggest over-aggression backfires.
• Ballhandler Pressure/Swipes at Ball: 75% win rate. A key OKC weapon.
• Screens/Fighting Over Screens physicality: 63% win rate.