Haq's Musings

Riaz Haq writes this data-driven blog to provide information, express his opinions and make comments on many topics. Subjects include personal activities, education, South Asia, South Asian community, regional and international affairs and US politics to financial markets. For investors interested in South Asia, Riaz has another blog called South Asia Investor at http://www.southasiainvestor.com and a YouTube video channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCkrIDyFbC9N9evXYb9cA_gQ

Showing posts with label EU. Show all posts

Monday, June 26, 2023

Pakistani Students Win Highest Number of US and EU Scholarships Among 143 Countries

Pakistani students have received more EU-funded Erasmus scholarships and US-sponsored Fulbright scholarships this year than students from any other country in the world. These are fully-funded scholarships for recipients to study at universities in the European Union and the United States. Pakistan has also seen a post-pandemic surge of student visas to study in Australia, the US and UK this year.

EU Scholarships. Source: EU Pakistan

Among 2,835 students from 143 countries selected for the Erasmus Mundus Joint Masters program, Pakistani students rank at the top with 192 scholarships, followed by India 174, Bangladesh 140, Mexico 118, and Nigeria 109, according to an EU tweet.

Within the EU, Germany is hosting 7,114 Pakistani students, according to Erudera. Among the major countries of origin of foreign students in Germany are: China 40,055, India 33,753, Syria 16,712, Iran 11,625, Russia 10,739, Italy 9,887, Cameroon 7,692 and Egypt 7,214.

The Fulbright scholarship program of the United States Government has awarded 189 scholarships for Pakistanis to study at US universities. Fulbright is the flagship scholarship program of the United States Government, operating in 160 countries. Pakistan has the largest Fulbright program in the world in terms of U.S. government contribution, with $18.44 million dollars this year to support 189 students, according to the US Embassy in Islamabad, Pakistan.

The United Kingdom emerged as the top destination for Pakistani students with 28,188 student visas granted in 2022, up 95% from the previous year. The UK has now surpassed China has the biggest draw for Pakistani students after the COVID19 pandemic. Of the 486,868 UK student visas granted (to both main applicants and their dependents), 117,965 went to Indian nationals. This is an increase of 80,569 (+215%) compared to 2019, and slightly more than the 115,056 granted to Chinese nationals — but Pakistani nationals saw a bigger increase in approvals for their UK student visas at 377% compared to India’s 215%, according to Study International.

Foreign Students in the US. Source: Open Doors

The US also reported a 17.4% increase in the number of Pakistani students studying in the United States during 2021-22. This brought their number to 8,772, according to Open Doors. The Open Doors Report identified China and India as the largest sources of international students to the United States. During 2021-22, China sent 290,086 students, which is 30.6% of the total number of international students in the US, a decline of 8.6% from the previous year. India, which sent 199,183 students this year — 21% of the total — saw a 19% year-over-year increase. Together, China and India make up more than half of all international students in the United States.

The number of Pakistani students studying in Australia has also increased 21% to 20,935 in 2022. The number of first-time enrollments of Pakistanis jumped 71% in the year, according to ICEF Monitor.

Offsetting a decline in Chinese enrollments in Australia (177,470 in 2022, down 11% y-o-y) and zero momentum from India (128,980, up .03%) were notable enrollment increases from:

Thailand, the 6th largest market, up 61% to 25,792

Nepal, the 3rd largest market, up 21% to 71,805

Colombia, the 4th largest market, up 21% to 28,435

Pakistan, the 9th largest market, up 21% to 20,935

Monday, September 26, 2022

Floods in Pakistan: Biggest Global Polluters US, Europe, China and India Must Accept Responsibility

Pakistan, a country that has contributed only 0.28% of the CO2 emissions, is among the biggest victims of climate change. The US, Europe, India, China and Japan, the world's biggest polluters, must accept responsibility for the catastrophic floods in Pakistan and climate disasters elsewhere. A direct link of the disaster in Pakistan to climate change has been confirmed by a team of 26 scientists affiliated with World Weather Attribution, a research initiative that specializes in rapid studies of extreme events, according to the New York Times.

Top 5 Current Polluters. Source: Our World in Data

Currently, the biggest annual CO2 emitters are China, the US, India and Russia. Pakistan's annual CO2 emissions add up to just 235 million tons. On the other hand, China contributes 11.7 billion tons, the United States 4.5 billion tons, India 2.4 billion tons, Russia 1.6 billion tons and Japan 1.06 billion tons.

Pakistan's Annual CO2 Emission. Source: Our World in Data

The United States has contributed 399 billion tons (25%) of CO2 emissions, the highest cumulative carbon emissions since the start of the Industrial Revolution in the late 18th century. The 28 countries of the European Union (EU28), including the United Kingdom, come in second with 353 billion tons of CO2 (22%), followed by China with 200 billion tons (12.7%).

Cumulative CO2 Emissions. Source: Our World in Data

Pakistan's cumulative CO2 contribution in its entire history is just 4.4 billion tons (0.28%). Among Pakistan's neighbors, China's cumulative contribution is 200 billion tons (12.7%), India's 48 billion tons (3%) and Iran's 17 billion tons (1%).

Developing Asian Nations' CO2 Emissions. Source: Our World in Data

Pakistan has contributed little to climate change but it has become one of its biggest victims. In the 2015 Paris agreement on climate change, signatories agreed to recognize and “address” the loss and damage caused by those dangerous climate impacts, according to the Washington Post. Last year, at the major U.N. climate conference in Glasgow, Scotland, negotiators from developing countries tried to establish a formal fund to help the countries like Pakistan most affected by climate disasters. It was blocked by rich countries led by the Biden administration.

Sunday, July 17, 2022

UN Report: Last Decade Saw 16.5 Million Pakistanis Migrate Overseas

Among 10 countries with the estimated net outflow of migrants exceeding 1 million over the period from 2010 through 2021, Pakistan saw 16.5 million migrants move overseas, the highest in the world, according to a report titled "World Population Prospects 2022" released by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA).

Pakistani Workers' Overseas Migration Data (2010-2021). Source: Bureau of Emigration

In many of these countries with more than one million people leaving, the outflows were due to temporary labor movements, such as for Pakistan (net outflow of 16.5 million), India (3.5 million), Bangladesh, (2.9 million), Nepal (1.6 million) and Sri Lanka (1.0 million). The report also said that India's population will surpass China's in 2023. Over half of the global population increase up to 2050 will be in just 8 countries: Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines & Tanzania.

Population Sizes of China, India and Pakistan 1950-2099. Source: Our World in Data

The figure of 16.5 million migrants outflow from Pakistan is much higher than the numbers reported by the Bureau of Emigration & Overseas Employment of the Government of Pakistan. A possible source of discrepancy is the uncounted numbers of the family members who accompany workers going abroad for work.

Universities Enrollment in Pakistan. Source: Pakistan Ministry of Finance

Between 2010 and 2021, 40 countries or territories have experienced a net inflow of more than 200,000 migrants; in 17 of those, the total net inflow exceeded 1 million people. In 2020, Turkey hosted the largest number of refugees and asylum seekers worldwide (nearly 4 million),followed by Jordan (3 million), the State of Palestine (2 million) and Colombia (1.8 million). Other major destination countries of refugees, asylum seekers or other persons displaced abroad were Germany, Lebanon, Pakistan, Sudan, Uganda and the United States of America.

Top Remittance Receiving Countries in 2021. Source: World Bank

Pakistan has received nearly $31 billion in worker remittances in 2021, up a whopping 20% from the prior year, according to the World Bank. This is a new record representing nearly 10% of the country's gross domestic product (GDP). This money helps the nation cope with its perennial current account deficits. It also provides a lifeline for millions of Pakistani families who use the money to pay for food, education, healthcare and housing. This results in an increase in stimulus spending that has a multiplier effect in terms of employment in service industries ranging from retail sales to restaurants and entertainment.

Remittances from the European Union (EU) to Pakistan soared 49.7% in FY 21 and 28.3% in FY22, according to the State Bank of Pakistan. With $2.5 billion remittances in the first 9 months (July-March) of the current fiscal year, the EU ($2.5 billion) has now surpassed North America ($2.2 billion) to become the third largest source of inflows to Pakistan after the Middle East and the United Kingdom. Remittances from the US have grown 21%, second fastest after the EU (28.3%) in the first 9 months of the current fiscal year.

Pakistan's share of the working age population (15-64 years) is growing as the country's birth rate declines, a phenomenon called demographic dividend. This dividend is manifesting itself in high levels of worker exports and record remittances pouring into the country. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates(UAE) are the top two sources of remittances but the biggest increase (58%) in remittances is seen this year from Pakistanis in the next two sources: the United Kingdom and the United States.

Over 10 million Pakistanis are currently working/living overseas, according to the Bureau of Emigration. Before the COVID19 pandemic hit in 2020, more than 600,000 Pakistanis left the country to work overseas in 2019. The average yearly outflow of Pakistani workers to OECD countries (mainly UK and US) and the Middle East has been over half a million in the last decade.

Worker Remittances as Percentage of Pakistan GDP. Source: World Bank

Pakistan ranks 6th among the top worker remittance recipient countries in the world. India and China rank first and second, followed by Mexico 3rd, the Philippines 4th, Egypt 5th and Pakistan 6th.

Pakistan Demographics

About two million Pakistanis are entering the workforce every year. The share of the working age population in Pakistan is increasing while the birth rate is declining. This phenomenon, known as demographic dividend, is coinciding with declines in working age populations in developed countries. It is creating an opportunity for over half a million Pakistani workers to migrate and work overseas, and send home record remittances.

Projected Population Decline in Emerging Economies. Source: Nikkei Asia

A common myth about emigration is that it is driven by poverty. But the fact is that the poorest and least developed people tend to stay put where they are; they do not migrate. It's only people who have a certain level of income and skills who are more likely to migrate to other countries for better opportunities. This fact has been well-established by multiple studies conducted in Africa.

Here's an except of African Development Bank report on migration:

"Results show that despite increase in the absolute number of migrants, Africa, particularly SubSaharan Africa has one of the lowest rate of emigration in the world .... Poorer countries generally have lower rate of emigration ......Bad socio-economic conditions generally seem to lead to higher rate of emigration by highly skilled individuals. Generally, migration is driven by motives to improve livelihoods with notable evidence on changes in labor market status. Often, self-employed or unemployed émigré ended up in wage employment. The paper outlines policy issues emerging from the migration trend in Africa."

Migration vs Human Development Source: Hein de Haas

Data shows that increased human and economic development is initially associated with increasing emigration. Any form of development in the poorest countries of the world is therefore likely to lead to accelerating emigration. Such findings contradict conventional thinking and force us to radically change our views on migration. Such rethinking can be achieved by learning to see migration as an intrinsic part of broader development processes rather than as a problem to be solved, or the temporary response to development “disequilibria”, according to The Conversation, a US publication.

How "Illiterate" Are Pakistan's "Illiterate" Cell Phone Users?

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel

PakAlumni: Pakistani Social Network

Sunday, May 1, 2022

European Union: Fastest Growing Source of Remittances to Pakistan

Country-wise Remittance Inflows in Pakistan. Source: State Bank of Pakistan

Pakistanis in European Union:

The population of Pakistan-born migrants to European Union countries has been growing in recent years. With over 120,000 Pakistani migrants, Italy is the most popular destination for Pakistanis in the EU.

Italy is followed by Germany with 75,495 Pakistani migrants. Then comes Spain with 61,953 migrants, France 21,900 (2017), Sweden 11,674, Denmark 10,669, Ireland 7,351 (2016), Belgium 5,927, Portugal 5,310, Norway 5,157, Netherlands 4,723 and Austria 4,112. There are smaller populations of Pakistanis in several other European countries.

Pakistan-born Migrants in European Union. Source: OECD

With $5.74 billion in the first 9 months of current fiscal year FY22, Saudi Arabia remains the top source of remittances to Pakistan, followed by $4.28 billion from the United Arab Emirates (UAE). However, the Saudi remittances are essentially flat while those from the UAE have declined 5.3% in this period. Pakistani diaspora is sending home over $30 billion a year, about 10% of the country's GDP. It is badly needed foreign exchange to balance Pakistan's external accounts.

Pakistanis in Italy. Source: Italian Government

Pakistan's Worldwide Diaspora:

Pakistan’s economy created 5.5 million domestic jobs during the past three years –on an average 1.84 million jobs a year, which is far higher than yearly average of creation of new jobs during the 2008-18 decade, according to the Labor Force Survey (LFS) published by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).

Worker Remittances as Percentage of Pakistan GDP. Source: World Bank

Pakistan ranks 6th among the top worker remittance recipient countries in the world. India and China rank first and second, followed by Mexico 3rd, the Philippines 4th, Egypt 5th and Pakistan 6th.

Pakistan Demographics

Pakistan's Demographic Dividend:

Projected Population Decline in Emerging Economies. Source: Nikkei Asia

How "Illiterate" Are Pakistan's "Illiterate" Cell Phone Users?

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel

PakAlumni: Pakistani Social Network

Wednesday, April 13, 2022

The West's Technological Edge in Geopolitical Competition

The US and its allies enjoy a significant technological advantage over China and Russia. The Chinese are working hard to catch up but the West is not standing still. It is making huge investments in research and development to maintain this edge as it becomes increasingly clear that the outcome of the ongoing international geopolitical competition will largely be determined by technology.

East-West Comparison of GDP, R&D. Source: IMF (GDP), OECD (R&D) via WSJ

In 2019, the United States and its allies invested $1.5 trillion in research and development, far outpacing the combined Chinese and Russian R&D investment of half a trillion USD. This gap will likely narrow if the East's GDP continues to grow faster than the West's, allowing for higher investment in technology.

After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the US, EU, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan have made it clear that the Western allies can and will use technology sanctions to control the behavior of China and Russia.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) will no longer fabricate computer chips for Russia, according to media reports. The ban will particularly affect Russia's Elbrus and Baikal processors, unless China agrees to step in to manufacture these chips, and risk additional US sanctions itself. Both Russian processors use mature 28 nm technology. The world's most advanced TSMC fabrication technology today is 5 nanometers. The best US-based Intel can do today is 7nm technology. China's SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation) has the capability to produce chips using 14 nm technology. Semiconductor chips form the core of all modern systems from automobiles to airplanes to smartphones, computers, home appliances, toys, telecommunications and advanced weapons systems.

While China is the biggest volume producer of semiconductor components in the world, the Chinese design centers and fabs rely on tools and equipment supplied by the West to deliver products. Western companies dominate all the key steps in this critical and highly complex industry, from chip design (led by U.S.-based Nvidia, Intel, Qualcomm and AMD and Britain’s ARM) to the fabrication of advanced chips (led by Intel, Taiwan’s TSMC and South Korea’s Samsung ) and the sophisticated machines that etch chip designs onto wafers (produced by Applied Materials and Lam Research in the U.S., the Netherlands’ ASML Holding and Japan’s Tokyo Electron ), according to the Wall Street Journal.

There is no question that the current western technology sanctions can seriously squeeze Russia. However, overusing such sanctions could backfire in the long run if the US rivals, particularly China and Russia, decide to invest billions of dollars to build their own capacity. This would seriously erode western technology domination and result in major market share losses for the US tech companies, particularly those in Silicon Valley.

Wednesday, June 29, 2016

Sabri Assassination; India's NSG Bid; Brexit & Trump; Hamza Yousuf vs ISIS

Who killed Pakistan's world famous sufi singer Amjad Sabri Qawwal last week? Why was he targeted close to home in MQM-dominated Liaquatabad neighborhood? Is the Sabri killing a failure of Sindh Rangers' Karachi operation? Who wants to see the Army-led Karachi Operation fail? India? RAW? TTP? PPP? MQM? Why?

Why is India seeking full membership of NSG? Why has its effort failed so far? How did India succeed in getting the NSG waiver to allow nuclear trade in 2008? Did Pakistan's then ambassador Husain Haqqani recommend to then President of Pakistan Asif Ali Zardari to not ask China to oppose the India NSG waiver? Is the NSG waiver not enough to accomplish India's goal of growing both its civil and military nuclear programs?

Why did the British voters vote 52% to 48% to leave the European Union? Do these British voters supporting Brexit have anything in common with Donald Trump supporters in the United States? Is this vote part of anti-establishment backlash against globalization, immigration and trade sweeping Europe and America? Is this result motivated by racism, Islamophobia, and xenophobia? Or does it reflect a genuine economic anxiety of those who have been left behind?

Source: Harvard Business Review

Why is ISIS naming San Francisco Bay Area based American Muslim scholar Hamza Yousuf as its enemy? What did Yousuf's viral video "Crisis of ISIS" say that so angered ISIS leaders that they named him as an assassination target in their online publication tracked by the US FBI? Is it because Hamza Yousuf has effectively challenged ISIS based on Islamic theology? Or is it because Hamza Yousuf has taken on ISIS on its favorite battleground in social media and cyberspace?

Viewpoint From Overseas host Misbah Azam discusses these questions with panelists Ali Hasan Cemendtaur and Riaz Haq (www.riazhaq.com)

https://youtu.be/LaLi85lRsck

https://vimeo.com/172752421

Sabri Assassination; India's NSG Bid; Brexit & Trump; Hamaz Yousuf vs ISIS from Ikolachi on Vimeo.

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