Haq's Musings

Riaz Haq writes this data-driven blog to provide information, express his opinions and make comments on many topics. Subjects include personal activities, education, South Asia, South Asian community, regional and international affairs and US politics to financial markets. For investors interested in South Asia, Riaz has another blog called South Asia Investor at http://www.southasiainvestor.com and a YouTube video channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCkrIDyFbC9N9evXYb9cA_gQ

Showing posts with label Pakistan. Show all posts

Sunday, February 2, 2025

Researchers of Chinese Origin Dominate the World's Top AI Talent

Recent launch of DeepSeek AI model has brought to light the large and growing AI talent in China. The researchers working for the Chinese startup have shown that human creativity and problem-solving skills can overcome limitations such as access to high-performance hardware. It confirms that the most important resource needed for breakthroughs in AI is the human resource.

The people of Chinese PRC origin account for 47% of the top 20% AI talent in the world based on undergraduate degree, according to a survey. Americans make up 18%, Europeans 12% and Indians 5% of the global AI researchers. In terms of the countries they serve, 57% of them work in the United States, 12% in China, 8% in the UK, 4% each in France and Germany and 3% in Canada as of 2022. While the US still has the lion's share of the top talent, its share has declined from 65% in 2019 to 57% in 2022. Marco Polo talent tracker lists Pakistan among a dozen countries for top AI talent in Asia.

Top Global AI Talent. Marco Polo AI Talent Tracker

More than half (15 out 25) of the institutions (companies and universities) where the top AI researchers work are located in the United States, while 6 are in China. The remaining four are in the UK, Switzerland, Singapore and Canada, according to Marco Polo Global AI Talent Tracker.

Top AI Talent in Asia Pacific. Source: Marco Polo

The Chinese from PRC dominate the Asia Pacific region with 81.9% of the top AI talent. Indians account for 8.2%, South Korea 4% and "others" 5.8%. "Others” include Taiwan, Australia, Vietnam, Singapore, Japan, Bangladesh, the Philippines, Malaysia, Pakistan, Mongolia, and Sri Lanka.

The fact that a number of large language models, including Chinese DeepSeek and Meta's Llama 3, are open source will help develop more global AI talent and spur greater innovation around the world. In the end, it is much more likely that the open source offerings will see greater success than the closed source models like OpenAI's.

Chinese AI Lab's DeepSeek Shocks Silicon Valley

Pakistan to Develop Urdu Language LLM

Pakistani Military Launches Defense AI Program

Algorithm: Origins of Artificial Intelligence in Islamic Age

Digital Pakistan 2022: Broadband Penetration Soars to 90% of 15+ Population

STEM Enrollment in Pakistan Exceeds One Million

Digital Public Infrastructure in Pakistan

Generative AI Buzz in Pakistan

Is Pakistan Ready for the AI Revolution?

Growing Presence of Pakistani Women in Science and Technology

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel

PakAlumni Social Network

Sunday, January 26, 2025

Chinese Lab's AI LLM Performance Shocks Silicon Valley

A Chinese Lab has sparked panic in Silicon Valley with the release of its first AI model that can outperform America's best despite being built more cheaply and with less-powerful chips, according to the US media reports. The lab called DeepSeek has recently unveiled a free, open-source large-language model (LLM) that it says took only two months and $5.5 million million to build, using reduced-capability chips from Nvidia called H800s. By comparison, the US-based OpenAI's closed LLM model cost $100 million to develop and train using the most advanced H100 chips from Nvidia. Open-source and free DeepSeek models can significantly help developing nations like Pakistan by providing affordable access to the latest AI technology, allowing them to develop solutions tailored to their specific needs without high costs.

DeepSeek, a small startup lab in China, has accomplished this feat despite the US technology export controls to slow down China's AI efforts. Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt is now acknowledging that China has narrowed or closed the AI technology gap with the United States.

In 2022 America banned the export of advanced chips to China, according to Economist magazine. Nvidia, a leading chipmaker, has had to design special downgrades to its products for the Chinese market. America has also sought to prevent China from developing the capacity to manufacture top-of-the-line chips at home, by banning exports of the necessary equipment and threatening penalties for non-American firms that might help, too.

The slower H800 chip was created by Nvidia to comply with export regulations that prevent the chipmaker from selling its high-end GPUs to China. Apparently, the limits imposed by Washington on Chinese engineers' access to the most advanced Nvidia chips forced them to develop a much more efficient model to achieve the same performance as their US counterparts. Other Chinese tech companies ranging from Alibaba and Huawei to TenCents are also working on their own multiple AI models, including LLMs.

DeepSeek has emerged from High-Flyer, a Chinese hedge fund started by 40-year-old Liang Wengfeng in 2015 to use AI to gain an edge in stocks-trading. Conducting fundamental research helped High-Flyer become one of the biggest quant funds in the country, according to The Economist magazine.

PakAlumni Social Network

Friday, January 3, 2025

Pakistan Stock Market Among World's Best Performers in 2024

Pakistan's KSE-100 index soared 86% in 2024, making it the second best among major indexes, according to Bloomberg News. The 2024 performance of KSE-100 represents its best year since 2002 when it shot up 112%. The top 3 performing stock markets in 2024 were Argentina (114%), Pakistan (88%) and Kenya (79%), according to Topline Securities. The US markets posted double digit gains with the AI-driven tech-heavy NASDAQ-100 up 27.6%. Small and medium US companies performed well with the Russell 2000 Index edging out India's Sensex with an 8.9% return.

Pakistan Among Top Performing Stock Markets in 2024. Source: Bloomberg

Clearly, the $7 billion IMF program helped restore some investor confidence in Pakistan's economy in 2024. It was also boosted by remittances from overseas Pakistanis in July-October 2024 which soared nearly 35% YoY to $11.8 billion as compared to $8.8 billion in July-Oct 2023. The fact that the KSE100 shares valuations relative to earnings still remain at historic lows (PE ratio of just 5.9) is an indication that investors have doubts about the sustainability of the economic improvements in the country. Among the top investor concerns appear to be worsening internal security situation and rising political instability.

History of Pakistan's KSE-100 Returns Since 1995. Source: Bloomberg

Pakistan's macroeconomic indicators have significantly improved in 2024. Inflation has come down dramatically, from 29.7% in December 2023 to 4.1% in December 2024, resulting in aggressive monetary easing of 900 bps by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP). The current account deficit has turned into a surplus of $729 million in November 2024 and the currency has remained stable. In spite of the run-up, the KSE-100 2025 forward PE ratio of 5.9x is still substantially below the 10-year average P/E of 8.2x.

Pakistan Shares Index PE Ratio. Source: Arif Habib

Pakistan's exports grew to $16.56 billion, an increase of 10.52% in July-Dec period in 2024 over the same period in 2023, while imports grew 6.11% to $27.73 billion in this period. Pakistan's textile exports grew 9.7% in the first six months of the current fiscal year. The trade deficit in July-December FY25 increased 0.18% to $11.17 billion from $11.15 billion over the prior year. In December, the deficit jumped 34.80% to $2.44 billion from $1.82 billion in December 2023. The trade gap contracted to $24.08 billion in FY24 from $27.47 billion in the preceding year. The current account improvement was helped by remittances from overseas Pakistanis in July-October 2024 which soared nearly 35% YoY to $11.8 billion as compared to $8.8 billion in July-Oct 2023.

Pakistan Textile Exports. Source: Arif Habib

In 2024, Pakistan began to make some progress to resolve the economic impact of high electricity rates and rising debt (PKR 2.1 trillion) owed to the independent power producers (IPPs). While the government terminated or renegotiated power purchase contracts (PPAs) with some IPPs, the consumers took matters into their own hands and started an unprecedented solar energy revolution.

As a result of the latest round, PPAs with five IPPs were terminated as a first step. Two of the five IPPs took haircut deals, accepting a discount of up to PKR 20 billion. 18 other IPPs face possible conversion to take-and-pay contracts, whereby the state-owned off-taker will only be liable to pay for energy consumed by the grid, eliminating capacity charges, according to a report by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.

Pakistan Solar Projects Seen From Satellites. Source: Atlas Via Bloomberg

High power prices are fueling a massive solar buildout across Pakistan, according to a Yale360 report. Solar imports from China so far this year have already outstripped imports across all of last year, Bloomberg reports. Panels purchased in 2024 amount to 17 gigawatts of capacity, enough to raise Pakistan's total power capacity by a third. A satellite data analysis done in April by Norwegian firm Atlas revealed around 400 solar plants across the country, clustered mostly in industrial hubs. But many more installations went undetected, the geospatial analysis firm said. Most panels have been deployed almost equally across homes, factories, and farms, solar distributors say.

RAAST: Pakistan's Instant Payment System

2021: A Banner Year For Tech Startups in Pakistan

Is Pakistan Ready For AI Revolution?

Digital Pakistan 2022: Broadband Penetration Soars to 90% of 15+ Population

STEM Enrollment in Pakistan Exceeds One Million

Digital Public Infrastructure in Pakistan

Solar Power Boom in Pakistan

Pakistan at 75

Growing Presence of Pakistani Women in Science and Technology

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel

PakAlumni Social Network

Saturday, December 14, 2024

Canada Gets Tough on Foreign Students Amid Mounting Tensions With India

The Canadian government has recently taken a series of steps to cut the number of international students studying in Canada. This is believed to be related to the extremely hostile Indian government response to Canadian allegations that the Indian officials ordered assassinations of Sikh activists in Canada. There are now new reports that Ottawa has asked Indian students to resubmit their documents for review. Earlier, Canada made a decision to end the fast-track visa process, known as Student Direct Stream (SDS), for students coming from India, Pakistan and a few other developing countries. Meanwhile, US F-1 visas granted to Indian students fell 38% between January and September of 2024.

Sikh Activist Assassinations:

The United States and Canadian governments are alleging that Indian government agents plotted assassinations of Sikh dissidents on their soils. Their investigations paint a shocking picture of how recklessly Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government operates.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi (L) and Home Minister Amit Shah

The criminal charges announced by Washington and Ottawa are backed by Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom, the remaining three countries that make up the 5-nation intelligence sharing alliance known as the Five Eyes. Revelations made by the US Justice Department and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) indicate that the authorization for Sikh assassinations came directly from the top Indian government officials, including Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's right-hand man Amit Shah. International criminal gang leader Lawrence Bishnoi is listed among the people tasked with carrying out the murders. These allegations are based on intelligence gathered from multiple communication intercepts among Indian government officials in New Delhi and Indian diplomats posted in Canada.

Canadian Student Visa Approval Rates. Source: ApplyAbroad

Canada's Student Direct Stream:

As of 2024, there are 427,000 Indian students studying in Canada, surpassing the 337,630 Indian students enrolled in the United States, according to media reports. The SDS was very popular in India, with nearly four in five Indian students applying for their Canadian study permit through the program.

Until recently, foreign students who applied for a Canadian study permit through the SDS saw a significant approval rate advantage over regular stream applicants in every emerging market. In 2022, India was the biggest beneficiary of SDS with 78% of applicants approved, followed by Pakistan 44%, Vietnam 22%, and China 7%.

Canada's decision to end SDS will hurt future student visa applicants from more than a dozen countries, including Pakistan.

Demand to Resubmit Documents:

Indian students in Canada are deeply concerned after receiving notices from Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) requesting the resubmission of critical documents, including study permits, visas, academic records, attendance, and part-time work details. Many of these students hold visas valid for up to two more years, causing fear.

International Student Visa Cap:

The Canadian government has also decided to reduce the number of student visas granted each year. The international student visa cap for 2025 and 2026 is 437,000, which is a 10% reduction from the 2024 target of 485,000. It has also increased the cost of living requirement for international students from C$10,000 to C$20,635 a year.

Indian F-1 Student Visas in US:

US F-1 visas granted to Indian students fell 38% between January and September of 2024. According to the US State Department, 64,008 F-1 visas were granted to Indian students, a significant drop from the 1,03,495 issued during the same period in 2023. This number is also reportedly lower than the 93,181 issued in 2022 and marginally higher than the 65,235 recorded in 2021, marking the lowest post-pandemic level, according to Indian media reports.

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel

PakAlumni Social Network

Sunday, December 8, 2024

Russian Hackers Steal Indian Military Secrets From Pakistani Cyber Spies

Hackers linked to Russian intelligence have stolen Indian military data from cyber spies believed to be working on behalf of the Pakistani state, according to an assessment by Microsoft researchers. All those involved are part of what are known as "advanced persistent threat" (APT) organizations in their respective countries. TechTarget defines "Advanced Persistent Threat (APT) as "a prolonged, targeted cyber attack that involves an attacker gaining and maintaining unauthorized access to a network for an extended period". The goal of an APT is to steal sensitive data, rather than cause damage to the network or infect systems with malware. It is harder to defend against such intrusions than to attack.

In a recent blog post, Microsoft researchers have discussed how Russian FSB's Secret Blizzard APT has breached a Pakistan-based threat activity cluster called Storm-0156 ATP to steal India's military secrets gathered by Pakistani intelligence. Since then, researchers from Microsoft and Black Lotus Labs say, Secret Blizzard has been able to leech off of Storm-0156's cyberattacks, accessing sensitive information from various Afghani government agencies and Indian military and defense targets.

State actors in India and Pakistan are known to target each other for cyber espionage. Last year, the Pakistani government warned its officials about a number of India-linked APT groups, including PatchWork and Sidewinder, targeting Pakistan. Some Indian ATP groups also target China.

Some Pakistani APTs targeting India have also been revealed in recent years. Among these are SideCopy and Transparent Tribe.

Given the cyberthreat landscape in South Asia, Pakistan is trying to improve its cybersecurity posture, steering $18 million in funding for cybersecurity research and adding $36 million to its budget to develop better cybersecurity technical capabilities.

International Telecommunications Union (ITU) has ranked Pakistan (score 96.69/100) among top tier countries for cybersecurity in 2024. Out of a maximum score of 20, Pakistan received 20 for legal measures, 18.21 for technical measures, 20 for organization measures, 20 for capacity development and 18.48 for cooperative measures, according to the Global Cybersecurity Index 2024 report released by the ITU.

Pakistan Cybersecurity Scores 2024. Source: ITU

Pakistan's tier one cybersecurity ranking is a big improvement from its 79th rank (score 64.88 from 100) it got in the cybersecurity ranking by the ITU in 2020. Four years ago, Pakistan scored 15.97 on legal measures, 12.26 on technical measures, 11.01 on organizational measures, 17.25 on capacity development and 8.38 on cooperative measures.

Increasing penetration and rapid growth of the Internet user base in Pakistan has brought in a lot of user complaints of bullying and fraud, necessitating government action, including new legislation and capacity building to fight cyber crimes.

Pakistan Telecom Indicators as of July 2024. Source: PTA

In 2018, Pakistan launched its National Center for Cyber Security (NCCS) as a joint project of Higher Education Commission (HEC) and the Federal Planning Commission. The Center includes several Research and Development (R&D) Labs at Pakistani universities. These universities have been given the mandate to establish NCCS affiliated Labs in different specialties of cybersecurity under the Center's secretariat. Earlier this year, Pakistan's economic coordination committee (ECC), a ministerial level body, allocated $36 million for work on cybersecurity measures.

Like many other nations, the cybersecurity threats in Pakistan include hacking, identity theft, cyber-bullying, cyberstalking, spoofing, financial frauds, digital piracy, viruses and worms, malicious software, money laundering, denial of service attacks, electronic terrorism, vandalism, and pornography.

Pakistan has passed a cybercrime bill and established a National Response Center for Cyber Crime (NR3C). NR3C has expertise in Digital Forensics, Technical Investigation, Information System Security Audits, Penetration Testing and Training. Since its inception, it has been involved in capacity building in various departments including Police, Intelligence, Judiciary and Prosecutors. Cyber Scouts is the latest initiative of NR3C, in which, selected students of different private/public schools are trained to deal with computer emergencies and increasing awareness of cyber threats amongst their fellow students, teachers and parents.

Is Pakistan Ready For the AI Revolution?

2021: A Banner Year For Tech Startups in Pakistan

Pakistan Projected to Be World's 6th Largest Economy By 2075

Digital Pakistan 2022: Broadband Penetration Soars to 90% of 15+ Population

Pakistan's Digital Public Infrastructure

Pakistanis' Insatiable Appetite For Smartphones

Has Pakistan Developed Cyber Attack and Defense Capabilities?

IDEAS 2024: Pakistan Defense Industry's New Drones, Missiles and Loitering Munitions

ITU Ranks Pakistan Among Tier 1 Countries For Cybersecurity

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel

PakAlumni Social Network

Sunday, December 1, 2024

IDEAS 2024: Pakistan Defense Industry's New Drones, Missiles and Loitering Munitions

The recently concluded IDEAS 2024, Pakistan's Biennial International Arms Expo in Karachi, featured the latest products offered by Pakistan's defense industry. These new products reflect new capabilities required by the Pakistani military for modern war-fighting to deter external enemies. The event hosted 550 exhibitors, including 340 international defense companies, as well as 350 civilian and military officials from 55 countries.

Pakistani defense manufacturers highlighted their latest products, including armed UAVs, air-launched cruise missiles, smart munitions and main battle tanks. A Pakistani defense official said a large number of memoranda of understanding (MOUs) were signed with foreign military officials which could potentially lead to $36 billion in future sales.

Pakistan Shahpar III UAV. Source: @ZARRAR3D

Pakistan's state-owned defense conglomerate Global Industrial & Defense Solutions (GIDS) displayed a new medium-altitude long-endurance (MALE) unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) – Shahpar III – at the IDEAS 2024 which was held at the Karachi Expo Center from November 24 to 27, 2024. Shahpar III features longer endurance, weapon carrying capacity, and service ceiling over the earlier platforms in the Shahpar family of UAVs. The Shahpar III will have a maximum take-off weight of 1,650 kg and can carry multiple weapons on six underwing hardpoints. It will feature domestically developed avionics and be equipped with a dual-redundant flight control computer (US MIL-STD-1553 architecture), enhancing the aircraft's reliability, according to Jane's Defense.

Sarkash Kamikaze Drone On Display at IDEAS 2024. Source: Global Defense Agency

GIDS also introduced a new Kamikaze (suicide) drone "Sarkash" at the event. The drone has a maximum range of 1,000 km, endurance of over 2 hours, a 50 kg warhead, and a total weight of 175 kg, powered by a turbojet engine. GIDS is also working on the Sarkash-1, a long-range loitering munition.

Pakistan's Blaze Loitering Munitions. Source: Quwa

GIDS also unveiled the Blaze Series of loitering munitions, including Blaze 25, Blaze 50, and Blaze 75 at IDEAS 2024. The lightest of the series, the 25 kg Blaze 25 is ideal for short-range anti-tank operations with a range of 75 km and an endurance of 60 minutes, leaving minimal acoustic and thermal signature thanks to its electric propulsion system, according to OVD. In contrast, the Blaze 50, with its 50 kg weight, 180 km range, and 20 kg warhead, is an intermediate solution for medium-range attacks and reconnaissance missions. Designed for strategic, long-range engagements, the Blaze 75, the heaviest and most powerful model, boasts a 500 km range and a 30 kg warhead. It is powered by a gasoline engine for long-term endurance.

Azb-81 LR Small Diameter Bomb. Source: Quwa

Qaswa Industries showcased its AZB-81LR Small Diameter Bomb (SDB) at IDEAS 2024. It is a stand-off weapon (SOW) with a range of 200 km. The precision-guided munition has a 250 lbs weight and has a standoff attack range of 200 kilometers, with an imaging infrared (IIR) seeker, according to defense publication Quwa.

Quwa also reported on a new Air Launched Cruise Missile (ALCM) displayed at Expo. Using a stealthy low-observable (LO) airframe, the Rasoob-250 offers a range of 350 km with a cruising speed of Mach 0.7 and accuracy of within 5 m CEP (circular error probable). Including a booster, it has a total mass of 285 kg, with the semi-armor piercing warhead taking up 75 kg. It can be launched from drones, helicopters, and maritime patrol aircraft (MPA).

Pakistan PFX Concept Fighter. Source: Raksha Anirveda

The Pakistan Air Force (PAF) publicly revealed for the first time a model of the next generation of its Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC)/Chengdu Aircraft Corporation (CAC) JF-17 ‘Thunder' fighter aircraft. Known as the JF-17 PFX (Pakistan Fighter Experimental), the model was displayed at the event in Karachi. Pakistani officials at IDEAS 2024 described the JF-17 PFX as a 4.5-plus generation twin-engine fighter aircraft. They also said that development of the type is expected to be completed before the end of the decade, according to Jane's.

Tuesday, November 19, 2024

Barrick Gold CEO "Super-Excited" About Reko Diq Copper-Gold Mine Development in Pakistan

Barrick Gold CEO Mark Bristow says he’s “super excited” about the company’s Reko Diq copper-gold development in Pakistan. Speaking about the Pakistani mining project at a conference in the US State of Colorado, the South Africa-born Bristow said “This is like the early days in Chile, the Escondida discoveries and so on”, according to Mining.com, a leading industry publication. "It has enormous upside potential". He was referring to Pakistan’s untapped discovery potential. Escondida was the first discovery of copper in Chile which is now the world's largest producer and exporter of copper. Last year, the South American country exported nearly $20 billion worth of copper.

Barrick Gold CEO Mark Bristow in Balochistan, Pakistan. Source: Quetta Voice

“Copper has no substitutes,” Bristow continued. “It is as strategic as gold is precious, and we’re bringing new copper projects online just as the supply squeeze hits.” Comparing Reko Diq to Escondida, he said "walking across, there's more than one porphyry, significantly more than one, it's a real endowment for the people of Balochistan and greater Pakistan". "It (Reko Diq) is world class, a gold mine on its own and a copper mine on its own". He expects a peak of 10,000 jobs during construction and 5,500-6,000 direct jobs to operate the Reko Diq mine afterwards. It will also create a lot of indirect job opportunities in the supply chain. "We are going to demonstrate (in Balochistan) that you can do something transformatory, both socially and economically".

Interest in developing Pakistan's Reko Diq copper and gold mines has grown with widening gap between demand and supply of the metals. Dennis Mark Bristow, CEO of the Canadian mining giant Barrick Gold Corporation, has said the Reko Diq mining project in Balochistan province is “absolutely on track” and would be able to begin production by 2028, according to news reports. Bristow said Reko Diq is an “enormous project” in which the company would be investing $10 billion.

Growing Copper Supply-Demand Gap

Clean Energy Driving Global Copper Demand. Source: IEA Via Nikkei

New infrastructure development is underway to connect Reko Diq with the national highway network. Barrick is building a link road to connect the mining project site with N-40 Quetta-Taftan national highway. Barrick chief says the company looks at the project as a “multi-generational investment,” adding that it wants all children under the age of 10 in the Reko Diq region to be in school by the end of 2024. Similar infrastructure projects to support coal mining in Thar desert have brought socioeconomic improvements and human development for the local villagers.

Barrick is developing local Balochi human capital trained in modern mining. Dozens of selected candidates, including women, are undergoing an intensive two-year on-the-job training program at Barrick’s mine sites at of Veladero in Argentina and Lumwana in Zambia. This hands-on experience is designed to equip them with practical skills and insights into world-class mining operations. Upon completion of the program, graduates typically return to Barrick operations in their home country, contributing to driving positive change in their communities, according to Barrick Gold.

The Reko Diq project is expected to employ thousands of workers during and after completion. Barrick has interviewed over 3,000 applicants from universities across Pakistan and selected 9 Baloch citizens, four women and five men, according to Bristow. “And they are now working on our mines in Argentina and they will go through a program of development and gaining experience from all our different operations around the world,” Bristow said, saying 30 such graduates would be employed in training programs with the company by the end of the year. By Jan-Feb next year (2025), he said, 1,200 people would be employed, which would increase to 6,000 by 2026. “By the time we peak production, we will have employed 10,000 people,” Bristow told Arab News.

Canadian mining giant Barrick Gold Corporation and the governments of Pakistan and Balochistan reached a deal to restart the Reko Diq mining project back in March 2022 on former Prime Minister Imran Khan's watch. Reko Diq is the world's 4th largest undeveloped copper-gold porphyry deposit with over 14 million tons of copper (worth $142 billion at $9,464 per ton) and 21 million ounces (worth $50 billion at $2,367 per ounce) of gold.

The project was abandoned in 2011 after a Pakistan Supreme Court bench headed by former Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry canceled the mining license granted to Tethyan Copper Company (TCC), a joint venture between Canada's Barrick Gold and Antofagasta Minerals of Chile. TCC challenged the cancellation in the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Dispute (ICSID). On July 12, 2019, the ICSID Tribunal awarded TCC $5.894 billion plus interest of $700,000 per day in damages against Pakistan. As of 1 March 2022, the award stood at $6.5 billion. The new agreement between Barrick Gold Corporation and the governments of Pakistan and Balochistan does away with this award. It also increases the share of the project owned by Pakistan from 25% to 50%, brings in $10 billion investment, the largest single investment in the country, and creates 8,000 jobs. Reko Diq is part of the Tethyan metallogenic belt (TMB) that extends from the Balkans in Europe to Pakistan including Serbo-Macedonian, Anatolian, Takab, Kerman and Chagai metallogenic belts. It is believed to be rich in copper and gold deposits.

Thursday, November 14, 2024

What Can Pakistan Do to Cut Toxic Smog in Lahore?

Citizens of Lahore have been choking from dangerous levels of toxic smog for weeks now. Schools have been closed and outdoor activities, including travel and transport, severely curtailed to reduce the burden on the healthcare system. Although toxic levels of smog have been happening at this time of the year for more than a decade, this year appears to be particularly bad with hundreds of people hospitalized to treat breathing problems. Millions of Lahoris have seen their city's air quality index (AQI) cross the 1,000 mark several times this month - anything above 300 is considered dangerous. What can Pakistan do to cut this level of air toxicity? Is there a silver bullet here? Let's try and understand the root causes of this problem to answer these questions.

NASA Satellite Images of Fires and Smog Taken on Nov 6, 2024. Source: NASA

South Asia is particularly susceptible to pollutants that hang in the air for extended periods of time. The US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) satellite images show dull gray haze hovering over northern India and Pakistan, and parts of Bangladesh. It is believed that emissions from solid fuel burning, industrial pollutants and farm clearing fires get trapped along the southern edge of the Himalayas in winter time. NASA Earth Observatory explains this phenomenon as follows:

"The haze.... likely results from a combination of agricultural fires, urban and industrial pollution, and a regional temperature inversion. Most of the time, air higher in the atmosphere is cooler than air near the planet’s surface, and this configuration allows warm air to rise from the ground and disperse pollutants. In the wintertime, however, cold air frequently settles over northern India, trapping warmer air underneath. The temperature inversion traps pollutants along with warm air at the surface, contributing to the buildup of haze."

Trapped Smog in Lahore. Source: Aljazeera

The single biggest factor contributing to heavy smog in October-November period each year in Indian and Pakistani Punjab is the lighting of a huge number of fires to burn the agriculture waste to clear the land for planting winter crops. The Indian government estimates that 38% of the smog in the Indian capital New Delhi comes from stubble burning in Punjab. Government policies are needed to incentivize widespread use of machines to remove agriculture waste. This can be accomplished by subsidizing the purchase and/or rental of these machines in both India and Pakistan. There should also be heavy fines imposed on those farmers who insist on setting fires to clear the land.

Other factors, such as emissions from vehicles and industrial units, also require better regulations and stricter enforcement. Coal-burning units such as brick kilns and cement factories should be moved further away from the population centers. Such measures can significantly cut toxic smog affecting people's health and productivity in the Punjab region straddling the India-Pakistan border. It will be helpful if Indian and Pakistan authorities can work together to solve this common problem.

Thursday, November 7, 2024

Pakistan to Develop Urdu LLM for Generative AI

National University of Science and Technology (NUST), National Information Technology Board (NITB) and Telecom network operator Jazz have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to develop Pakistan’s first indigenous Large Language Model (LLM) with focus on Urdu, including datasets for Pashto and Punjabi languages. It is aimed at empowering individuals, businesses, and organizations with advanced AI tools in their native languages. The envisioned LLM is expected to drive innovation in Generative AI applications, boosting productivity and accessibility in critical sectors like healthcare, education, and agriculture.

GPT-4 Accuracy Scores. Source: The Economist

Generative AI tools such as ChatGPT are powered by large language models, or LLMs. These models need to be trained on vast amounts of data in specific languages to be useful. Unfortunately, the Urdu content of the Internet is less than 0.1%. This will present a challenge for the developers of Urdu LLMs.

Online Content of Various Languages. Source: W3Techs

Lack of Urdu content available for training ChatGPT affects the accuracy of the results for Urdu language users. For example, the GPT-4 accuracy score in question-answer tests in Urdu is just over 70%, compared with 85% accuracy score in the English language, according to data from OpenAI. Other South Asian languages, including Hindi, Bengali, Punjabi, Marathi and Telugu, suffer from the same problem.

It's not just a South Asian problem. These challenges exist in the developing world. Non-European languages are generally poorly represented online. It's a major obstacle for non-European nations in developing their own generative artificial-intelligence (AI) models, which rely on vast amounts of training data. Generative artificial intelligence (AI) can produce biased results due to a number of factors, including the data it's trained on, the algorithms used, and how it's deployed.

The use of AI in developing nations such as Pakistan will remain limited to a small number of people proficient in the use of the English language. Broadening the adoption of AI applications will require LLMs trained on local language content. The absence of this development could cost Pakistan the opportunity to take full advantage of the AI Revolution.

RAAST: Pakistan's Instant Payment System

2021: A Banner Year For Tech Startups in Pakistan

Algorithm: Origins of Artificial Intelligence in Islamic Age

Digital Pakistan 2022: Broadband Penetration Soars to 90% of 15+ Population

STEM Enrollment in Pakistan Exceeds One Million

Digital Public Infrastructure in Pakistan

Generative AI Buzz in Pakistan

Is Pakistan Ready for the AI Revolution?

Growing Presence of Pakistani Women in Science and Technology

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel

PakAlumni Social Network

Saturday, October 19, 2024

India: A Rogue State Ruled By Gangsters?

Prime Minister Narendra Modi (L) and Home Minister Amit Shah

Sikh Leaders Targeted in Assassinations Campaign by Modi Government

RCMP Commissioner Michael Duheme has warned of widespread violence, homicides and a public security threat linked to agents of the Indian government. Duheme said the RCMP has charged “a significant number” of people with direct involvement in homicides, extortions and other criminal acts of violence over the past few years and is aware of more than a dozen threats to members of the south Asian community and the pro-Khalistan movement, according to the Canadian news media.

Meanwhile, the United States Justice Department (US DOJ) has charged a former Indian intelligence agent Vikash Yadav for allegedly orchestrating a foiled plot to assassinate Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, an American citizen living in New York City. Last year, the DOJ first announced charges in the case, indicting an Indian national and alleged drug and weapons trafficker, Nikhil Gupta. That indictment also referred to an unnamed Indian government official whom prosecutors said directed the scheme.

New Delhi is responding very differently to almost identical allegations made by the US and Canadian governments. While the Canadians are treated with total disdain, the Americans are being taken very seriously. The behavior of the Modi officials toward Canada is just as hostile as it has been toward Pakistan which has also documented a campaign of assassinations of Sikhs and Kashmiris orchestrated by Indian agents on its soil.

Reacting to the report of Canadian allegations against the Indian government, Pakistan Foreign Secretary Syrus Qazi said: “We are aware of the nature of our eastern neighbor, we know what they are capable of … so it is not a surprise for us. “We caught [one of their] serving naval intelligence officers on our soil. He (Kulbhushan Jadhav) is in our custody and admitted that he came here to create instability and spread evil,” he added.

Last year, Pakistan foreign office spokesperson Mumtaz Zahra Baloch said her country remained a “target of a series of targeted killings and espionage by (Indian Intelligence Agency) RAW". “In December last year, Pakistan released a comprehensive dossier providing concrete and irrefutable evidence of India’s involvement in the Lahore attack of June 2021. The attack was planned and executed by Indian intelligence,” she said, adding that in 2016, a high-ranking Indian military officer Kulbhushan Jadhav confessed to his involvement in directing, financing and executing terror and sabotage in Pakistan.

The US government has openly bracketed Mr. Modi with several murderous dictators. Speaking about the US decision to grant immunity to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman in 2022, State Department spokesperson Vedant Patel said that it was “not the first time” that the US government has designated immunity to foreign leaders and listed four cases. “Some examples: President Aristide in Haiti in 1993; President Mugabe in Zimbabwe in 2001; Prime Minister Modi in India in 2014; and President Kabila in the DRC in 2018. This is a consistent practice that we have afforded to heads of state, heads of government, and foreign ministers,” he said.

Modi has a long history of murdering minorities in his country. After the Gujarat anti-Muslim pogrom of 2002, Narendra Modi made the cover of India Today magazine with the caption "Hero of Hatred". Modi was denied a visa to visit the United States. The US visa ban on Modi was lifted in 2014 after he became prime minister. Since then, Narendra Modi's image has been rehabilitated by the West as the US and Western Europe seek allies in Asia to counter the rise of China. However, Modi's actions on the ground in India confirm that he remains "Hero of Hatred" and "Divider In Chief" at his core. A two-part BBC documentary explains this reality in significant detail. The first part focuses on the 2002 events in Gujarat when Modi as the state chief minister ordered the police to not stop the Hindu mobs murdering Muslims and burning their homes and businesses. The second part looks at Modi government's anti-Muslim policies, including the revocation of Kashmir's autonomy (article 370) and a new citizenship law (CAA 2019) that discriminates against Muslims. It shows the violent response by security forces to peaceful protests against the new laws, and interviews the family members of people who were killed in the 2020 Delhi riots orchestrated by Modi's allies.

Here's Indian National Security Advisor on how to use Taliban to attack Pakistan:

https://youtu.be/eYRuk8H5M9E?si=ZB1c7Dd8ntQdKeFi

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel

PakAlumni Social Network

Sunday, October 6, 2024

Is Pakistan Getting Ready For AI Revolution?

Generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) has taken the world by a storm. It has drawn the attention of academia, businesses and governments around the world. This technology is expected to transform almost every sector from business and commerce to government, industries and defense. Are Pakistanis aware of its potential? Is Pakistan getting ready for what is being described as the "AI Revolution"? Let's examine the answers to these questions.

AI awareness is rising among Pakistan’s general public. The country ranks third with 76% of people being aware of ChatGPT, according to Stanford University’s AI Index Report 2024 covering a survey of 31 countries, including the United States, Europe and East Asia. India (82%), Kenya (81%), Indonesia (76%), and Pakistan (76%) have the highest awareness rates in the world. Brazil and Canada have 64% awareness, UK and Japan 61%, China, Germany and France 60% and the US 55%. Poland reported the lowest awareness, at 43%. Globally, 17% of users utilize it daily, 36% weekly, and 16% monthly. India (36%), Pakistan (28%), and Kenya(27%) report the highest levels of daily usage.

Pakistan is among the top 4 countries for enrollment in Coursera online GenAI courses, according to Jeff Maggioncalda, CEO of Coursera. India, Egypt, Pakistan, and Brazil, make up more than half (52%) of GenAI enrollments on Coursera. It offers more than 4,600 courses and 55 Professional Certificates in up to 21 popular languages, including Arabic, Hindi, and Spanish. Coursera, a global online education platform, was launched in 2012 by two Stanford Computer Science professors, Andrew Ng and Daphne Koller.

Pakistan's HEC (Higher Education Commission) has established a partnership with Coursera to give access to online quality education in Pakistan. As a result, more than 200 universities have gained access to Coursera’s library of courses. Over 267,000 courses have been completed with students logging over 1.4 million learning hours. More than 45,000 learners have achieved deep-skills specialized certifications from internationally recognized institutions, the most popular specializations being Communication, Data Analysis, and Leadership and Management, according to Coursera.

Ashar Aziz Foundation, created and funded by Pakistani-American technology entrepreneur Ashar Aziz, has sponsored Advanced AI Bootcamps at the National University of Science and Technology (NUST) in Islamabad. The bootcamp series not only provides theoretical knowledge but also emphasizes practical, project-based learning, according to NUST.

The first AI bootcamp, which focused on Deep Neural Networks (DNNs), was successfully completed at NUST in November 2023. The second bootcamp provided participants with in-depth knowledge and hands-on experience in the development and application of LLMs (Large Language Models). Ghulam Ishaq Khan Institute of Engineering Sciences & Technology (GIKI) also joined this initiative in 2024, conducting its own DNN-focused bootcamp. Participants have the opportunity to work with advanced technologies, including access to a 10xH100 NVIDIA GPU AI supercomputer, ensuring they are well-prepared to tackle real-world challenges in AI. As part of its ongoing efforts, NUST plans to partner with additional universities across Pakistan to further scale this initiative, ensuring that more students have access to high-quality AI training, according to NUST.

Smaller towns in Pakistan are also setting up AI programs with the help of Pakistani-Americans. For example, Stanford educated AI expert Shoaib Lari and Silicon Valley based technology executive Jalil Shaikh have helped Islamia University Bahawalpur start an AI program. Jalil Shaikh is now working with US-based companies to place the first group of graduates from this program.

STEM education underlies Artificial Intelligence. Pakistan stands 4th in the world with 642,562 students enrolled in STEM courses– behind Nigeria (675,371), the US (4,639,771) and India (6,000,967), according to Coursera's Global Skills Report 2023. My own estimate based on HEC data is that STEM enrollment in Pakistan exceeds one million.

The Pakistan government has released its National AI Policy Draft for comments. It focuses on how AI can help the country promote its national competitiveness and improve the lives of its citizens by outlining a wide range of developmental initiatives necessary for awareness and adoption of AI, reimagining the transparent and fair use of personal data using AI, and stimulating innovation through industry-academia collaborations and investments in AI-led initiatives. The Pakistan government has set up a National Center for Artificial Intelligence (NCAI) at the National University of Science and Technology (NUST). NCAI has created a a consortium model consisting of 6 public sector universities with 9 specialized research centers spread across Islamabad, Lahore, Karachi, Peshawar.

Pakistan has also seen several private-sector led initiatives to create greater awareness of AI. For instance, Karachi.AI is recognized as a premier community for Applied AI practitioners. Established in 2017, the community proudly hosts over 10,000 members representing various domains. Its mission revolves around three central pillars: raising awareness, promoting engagement, and driving execution. Karachi. AI hosts regular meetups in Karachi, which are also live streamed on its YouTube channel, along with other educational content about AI.

In addition to skilled human capital, the GenAI apps require a lot of digital public infrastructure, powerful computers and large data centers to securely store and rapidly access vast amounts of data. A number of private investors are jumping in to build data centers in Pakistan. Mari Petroleum Company Limited (MPCL) is planning to develop data centers across the country as part of an expansion into digital infrastructure. Chakwal Spinning Mills Limited, has recently said it was pivoting to develop data centers.

RAAST: Pakistan's Instant Payment System

2021: A Banner Year For Tech Startups in Pakistan

Algorithm: Origins of Artificial Intelligence in Islamic Age

Digital Pakistan 2022: Broadband Penetration Soars to 90% of 15+ Population

STEM Enrollment in Pakistan Exceeds One Million

Digital Public Infrastructure in Pakistan

Solar Power Boom in Pakistan

Pakistan at 75

Growing Presence of Pakistani Women in Science and Technology

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel

PakAlumni Social Network