The 2019 OGWAC rankings

OK,​ kids. Hike up​ your​ pants​ around​ your​ armpits,​ hang an​ onion from your​ belt and park​ your​ walker over by​​ rotary phone, because it’s time for the annual OGWAC rankings.

For you newbies, an OGWAC is that beloved species of hockey player whose story everyone loves to hear during the playoffs: the Old Guy Without a Cup. He’s the grizzled veteran who’s been around forever and has probably come agonizingly close a time or two, but he doesn’t have a ring and he’s running out of time. Everyone’s rooting for him, and if his team does win it all, he usually gets the honor of being the first in line for the Cup handoff.

The greatest OGWAC story of all-time is Ray Bourque in 2001, one that still makes the toughest hockey fan you know cry a little. Others include Teemu Selanne in 2007, Lanny McDonald in 1989 and Kimmo Timonen in 2015. Last season’s OGWAC story was Alexander Ovechkin, who was a little young for the honor but has somehow had grey hair for five years, so we’ll allow it.

I’ve been breaking down the annual OGWAC rankings going back to the Grantland days and the format hasn’t changed much. It doesn’t need to, because the OGWAC is timeless. Or so I thought. Because this year, I’m starting to wonder if we don’t need something new.

I think we might need to introduce the OGWACWIT: The Old Guy With a Cup Who Isn’t Thornton.

After all, there isn’t really a ton of suspense about the top spot in these rankings. Joe Thornton has emerged as one of the league’s most lovable characters and will be a no-questions-asked Hall-of-Famer as soon as he’s eligible. But he’s about to turn 40 and has battled injuries in recent years. He’s almost at the end of the road and still doesn’t have his ring. He’s pretty much the archetypal OGWAC right now.

Even as wait to see if last night’s high hit on Tomas Nosek gets him suspended, Thornton is going to rank at the top of our list. Sorry for the spoiler. But there are plenty of other guys who are worth a mention too. Let’s count down the best stories of the Cupless guys who a.) are at least 33 years old; b.) have played at least ten seasons; c.) are in the playoffs and either playing or at least have a chance to at some point.

With the criteria set, let’s get to the rankings. We’re going to need a top 15 this time, because for reasons I’m not quite clear on, there are just a ton of great OGWAC candidates this year. And even a few OGWACWITs.

15. Dan Hamhuis, Predators

Hamhuis is a nice starting point because he’s basically the classic OGWAC story. He’s 36, has played 15 seasons and won’t have too many more shots at this. And of course, he had an agonizing near-miss in 2011 with the Canucks. That loss was especially tough for Hamhuis, since he was hurt in the first game of the final and didn’t play again. He hasn’t won a playoff round since.

This year’s Predators are an especially loaded OGWAC team, as we’ll see a little bit further down. That hurts Hamhuis’s standing just a bit, but he’s still worthy of a spot on our list.

14. Matt Hendricks, Jets

Hendricks is a bit of a tricky call. On the one hand, he’s a 37-year-old role player and his teammates love him. And unlike some of the other players on this list, this really does seem like his last shot at a Cup. On the other, there’s a good chance we won’t see him suit up for the Jets during this run – he barely played down the stretch and is really here to be a veteran leader as opposed to an on-ice contributor. In terms of the Jets who matter during this postseason, Hendricks doesn’t rank that high.

Still, it’s a long way to a Stanley Cup, and if the Jets can get past the Blues and go deep, you never know who they might need. And if Hendricks was in the lineup for a Cup win, he’d be close to a guaranteed first handoff. We’ll rank him here and hope against hope that his case gets stronger in the weeks to come.

13. Blake Comeau, Stars

Comeau’s the youngest player on our list, having just turned 33 in February. But he’s had the classic journeyman career that can make for a great OGWAC story, playing 13 seasons for six teams and never having seen the second round of the playoffs. In fact, he’s only ever been part of six playoff wins, including Game 1 against the Predators.

We can’t rank him too high since he’s presumably got more runway left than most of the other guys on this list. But let’s consider him an OGWAC prospect to keep an eye on.

>> Read the full post at The Athletic

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Five one-team stars who went down with the ship

The Sedins made news this week with an article in The Players' Tribune that seemed to all but rule out the possibility of the twins finishing their career anywhere but Vancouver. With the Canucks expected to finish near the bottom of the standings this year, there had been talk the team could make a Ray Bourque-style trade to send its franchise players to a Stanley Cup contender. That door seems closed now.

That means the Sedins will join players like Steve Yzerman, Nicklas Lidstrom and Jean Beliveau in the fairly exclusive club of star players who spent their entire career with the same franchise. Of course, those situations were a little different – those players stuck around to play their final seasons for a contender. The Sedins know that likely won't be the case for them.

It's far less common for a star to go down with the ship, playing out their final seasons with the only team they've ever known even though they realize they don't have a shot at finishing with a Cup or even a playoff run. But it's not unheard of – Shane Doan's recent retirement was one example. Here are five more.

Thomas Steen, Winnipeg Jets

Steen is a reasonably direct comparable to the Sedins – a Swedish forward on a Canadian team who had never won a Cup and clearly wasn't going to if he stayed put. Steen broke in with the Jets in 1981, but by 1994 he was nearing the end of the road with no title in sight.

Of course, the mid-'90s Jets were in even worse shape than today's Canucks. Not only were they a bad team, having finished no higher than fourth in their division since 1990 and failing to win a playoff round since 1987, but they were on the verge of packing up and moving to Arizona. 

So it was no surprise when Steen's name showed up in trade rumors as the 1993-94 deadline approached. The Toronto Maple Leafs were mentioned as a potential destination, and would've made sense – they were a borderline Cup contender that was shopping for veteran help up front. But the deal never happened (the Leafs landed Mike Gartner instead), and Steen returned for one last partial season after the 1994 lockout, during which the Jets finished last in the Central Division for the second straight year.

At the time, that was assumed to be the last season for the Jets in Winnipeg. When a goodbye rally was held after the season, Steen's number was retired to a loud ovation. That made him the first Swedish player to be honored by an NHL team, not to mention a rare case of a player having his number retired when he was still technically active. While the team ended up making a surprise return for one more season in Winnipeg in 1995-96, Steen did not.

So take solace, Canucks fans. Barring a miracle run, the Sedins may be headed towards a Steen-like finish to their careers. But at least you'll still have a team to cheer on after they're gone.

>> Read the full post at The Hockey News

Conference finals preview

The second round of the Stanley Cup playoffs wrapped up last night in San Jose, with the Sharks demolishing the Predators, 5-0, to advance to the Western Conference finals. And unlike recent years, the NHL isn't going to kill the momentum by taking a few days off. We're right back at it tonight, with the Eastern Conference finals kicking off in Pittsburgh.

We've got an interesting final four this year, one that doesn't include any division winners, Canadian entries or Original Six teams. Let's see if we can sort it all out.

Eastern Conference

With the Presidents' Trophy winning Capitals knocked out, we're left with a pair of No. 2 seeds squaring off in a conference final that has no shortage of star power.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Pittsburgh Penguins

In this corner: The Lightning (46-31-5, +26) are looking to return to the Stanley Cup final for the second straight year.

The road so far: They've had by far the easiest path to the conference final, facing Detroit and the Islanders, who finished 15th and 10th overall, respectively. But you can only beat the teams that the brackets serve up, and the Lightning have done it with ease, needing just ten games to finish off the two series.

Injury report: Two key contributors, Steven Stamkos and Anton Stralman, have both missed the entire playoffs but could be back at some point. Stralman broke his leg in March and seems like he's on the verge of returning. Stamkos is trickier; he needed surgery after being diagnosed with a blood clot, and can't return until he's off blood thinners. That might happen any day now; it also might not happen before the playoffs are over.

One player to watch: Victor Hedman. When a team is rolling as well as the Lightning, there are plenty of players you could shine a spotlight on. Nikita Kucherov is filling the net, Tyler Johnson has been fantastic, Ben Bishop looks great and Jonathan Drouin is writing a nice little comeback story. But Hedman may be the key to the series. When he's at his best, he belongs in the top tier of NHL defensemen, right next to guys like Drew Doughty and Duncan Keith. And he was at this best against the Islanders, racking up four goals and eight points in five games while helping to keep John Tavares off the scoresheet after the opener. He'll have his work cut out against Sidney Crosby and friends, but if he's up to the job, he can change the course of a series on his own.

Key number: 57.3—Percentage of scoring chances that the Lightning owned this year when Stralman was on the ice, making him one of just six defensemen with over 1,000 even-strength minutes to be over 57 percent. That's a better mark than Kris Letang (56.8), Brent Burns (55.3), Shea Weber (54.1) or Keith (52.8). Again, Tampa has gone 8-2 in the first two rounds without him in the lineup. If and when he comes back, the Lightning blueline gets downright scary.

Even without Stamkos and Stralman, the Lightning aren't short on star power. –Photo by Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Dominant narrative: Redemption. The Lightning have been here before, going to last year's Cup final before losing the Blackhawks in six. Now they're back, and with the offense clicking and Stralman and Stamkos on the way back, they may be even better than last year's team. Still, they'll go into this series as underdogs, and with the lingering whispers that they haven't really beaten anyone to get here. They're not quite a "nobody believed in us" story, but they're not getting as much respect as a reigning conference champion typically would.

And in this corner: The Pittsburgh Penguins (46-26-8, +42), the league's hottest team over the second half.

The road so far: The Penguins had a relatively easy time with the Rangers in round one, knocking them off in five games. The powerhouse Capitals proved tougher, but Tuesday's Game 6 overtime winner by Nick Bonino sent them home, too.

Injury report: Olli Maatta returned to action Tuesday, so all the key players are available. That includes Marc-Andre Fleury, who's recovered from a concussion and is cleared to play, but has (so far) stayed in a backup role to rookie Matt Murray.

>> Read the full post at Vice Sports

The sales pitch: Why you need to trade for these Leafs

OK, so Brian Burke and I aren't on the best of terms these days. I want to make it up to him.

With the deadline just a week away, Burke is faced with the task of convincing his fellow GMs to trade for various Leaf players. Needless to say, this won't exactly be easy.

Like any good salesman, Burke needs to go into battle with a game plan. So I've put together a list of talking points that he could use to try to sell other GMs on his wares. They're his to use, free of charge. Consider it a peace offering.

According to Google, this is a picture of
Lee Stempniak. No Leaf fan can confirm this.

The player: Lee Stempniak
The sales pitch: Not one of those late-season pickups who will come in and disrupt precious dressing room chemistry by being noticeable in any way.

The player: Jason Blake
The sales pitch: While many have cited the length of his contract as a cause for concern, the actual salary cap implications are hard to predict since the CBA will have expired and been renegotiated three times before his deal finally ends.

The player: Curtis Joseph
The sales pitch: Will immediately begin bolstering the confidence of your offensive players during practice shooting drills.

The player: Tomas Kaberle
The sales pitch: Is so good that some teams have been willing to deal a 23-year-old future 50-goal scorer and a first round pick for him, if you can possibly believe such a thing. Ha ha. Ha. Oh god I hate my life.

The player: Andre Deveaux
The sales pitch: A trade to another team would increase the young enforcer's value by making it possible for him to some day fight Ryan Hollweg, the only player in the entire NHL he is capable of beating

This is a cool photo, except that a defenceman
was winding up at the point when it was taken

The player: Vesa Toskala
The sales pitch: Recent history has shown that every goalie who leaves the Leafs automatically becomes ten times better on their new team. Which, in Toskala's case, would make him a very solid backup down the stretch in the event that your regular backup gets injured.

The player: Nik Antropov
The sales pitch: Inevitable upcoming stint on injured reserve will clear up valuable late season cap space.

The player: Mikhail Grabovski
The sales pitch: Has been described as "fearless", party due to his habit of making risky plays in the open ice but mostly due to his willingness to talk crap about Belarusian mob underlings.

The player: Dominic Moore
The sales pitch: Future free agent can always be resigned before the off-season, which would be a great idea since career fourth-liners who have unexpected career seasons during a contract year almost always go on to maintain that level of success.

The player: Matt Stajan
The sales pitch: Has shown impressive focus; despite playing almost his entire career on embarrassingly awful teams has never complained, become dejected, or acted like he even vaguely cared.

Miscellaneous ex-Avalanche defenceman

The player: Jeff Finger
The sales pitch: Career sixth-defenceman occasionally plays so well that seasoned hockey executives have been known to mistake him for the infinitely better Kurt Sauer.

The player: Alexei Ponikarovsky
The sales pitch: Averaged 20 goals a season from 2005-08, so he'd be reasonably productive as long as your roster is so utterly devoid of talent that you're forced to play him on the first line next to a future hall of famer.

The player: Alex Steen
The sales pitch: Talented young player has shown impressive defensive acumen, occasional offensive flair, and emerging leadership skills. Is also technically now a member of the St. Louis Blues, so we can let him go for a late round draft pick.

The player: Luke Schenn
The sales pitch: Is excellent at defending odd-man rushes. Which will come in handy, since the asking price is your entire roster and a first round pick.

Leafs trade Steen and Colaiacovo for Lee Stempniak

Apparently Trader Cliff felt like getting in one for the road.

Well, at least if you assume that Fletcher did this on his own, without consulting with Burke. Which seems like a foolish assumption to me, even though that's the angle the media seems to be running with.

I don't know much about Stempniak so I'll resist the urge to annoyingly declare a "winner" in thie deal before any of the players even have time to get on an airplane. But my initial reaction is that any forward who has been scoring at a point-a-game pace can probably crack the Leafs' first two lines.

Steen has a boatload of talent, but for whatever reason it just wasn't happening for him in Toronto. Maybe a fresh start will wake him up. That means he could be yet another Steve Sullivan/Kyle Wellwood story, but so be it. There's no reason to hang on to a depreciating asset just to prevent anyone else from mining any value out of it.

I'm genuinely happy for Colaiacovo. Last month I wrote a post about my hope that the Leafs would trade him. I think he got a raw deal in Toronto, both due to bad luck on the injury front and Ron Wilson deciding to make an example out of him. That's the way it goes sometimes, but I'm happy to see him get a fresh start. I really hope he succeeds in St. Louis.

And the next Leafs captain should be...

"C" no evil

This burning question in the Barilkosphere for the last week or so, other than "is it actually possible to screw up a no-trade scenario any worse than Bryan McCabe did?" has been around the identity of the next Leafs captain. Who should get the honor, assuming Sundin isn't back?

(And don't worry, eyebeleaf -- even I wouldn't suggest we strip Sundin of his 'C' if he re-signs¹.)

The Leafs have recently made a habit of bringing their old captains back to the fold: Wendel twice, and Dougie once. It says here that they should do it again.

They should award this year's captaincy to the same player who had it from 1986-89.

Nobody.

Back then, the Leafs didn't have any especially good candidates for the captain's job. The team wasn't very good, their few decent players were too young to carry a leadership role, and they didn't have much in the way of veteran presence. Stop me if any of this sounds familiar.

Faced with that scenario, and for perhaps the only time during the Ballard years, the Leafs did the right thing. They played without a captain for three years.

They should do it again. The current Leafs roster doesn't have a single player who deserves to wear the "C". And since there's no rule that says you need to have a captain, and no real disadvantage to going without one, the Leafs should declare the captaincy vacant for at least one season.

Let's look at the candidates on the current roster:

An established veteran like Tomas Kaberle, Pavel Kubina or Nik Antropov - Kaberle is a decent option, and would be my choice if I had to choose somebody. He's the longest serving Leaf, he's probably the best player on the team, and he's kept his nose clean. But from all accounts he's not much of a dressing room presence, preferring to stand aside and let others take on leadership duties. Could he grow into a more vocal leadership role? Sure. And if he does, he should be the next captain -- sometime in the next few years.

Kubina has been linked to the captaincy this week, and Antropov has been mentioned in various spots. But Antropov has essentially had one good season as a Leaf, and Kubina has arguably had one good month. And either one could become trade bait at this year's deadline, if not sooner. A captain should be somebody a team is committed to in the long term. I'm not sure either of these guys are in that category.

Besides, it's been well-established that the Leafs dressing room became a country club over the past few years. Players weren't held accountable, the same lazy errors happened over and over again, and nobody ever seemed all that bothered by any of it. Do any of the veterans who were part of last year's leadership core really deserve another shot so soon after that disaster?

A veteran newcomer like Jamal Mayers. No way. You don't hand your captaincy over to a new guy unless they're among the great leaders in the game. And with apologies to Mayers, who seems like a solid guy on and off the ice, he's not exactly Mark Messier.

One of the kids, like Alex Steen or Matt Stajan - There's certainly plenty of precedent for handing a captaincy over to a youngster. But that's an honor typically reserved for franchise players like Yzerman or Crosby who the team is looking to build around for the next decade. There's nobody on the Leafs roster who even comes close to that level of talent or potential.

Stajan and Steen may have some leadership skills, and either could be a captain in the league someday. But again, why rush it, especially in a pressure-packed market like Toronto? After all, the last time the Leafs let an untested youngster take over an important role, it didn't work out so well.

All of the above: rotate the captaincy - This idea seems to be picking up steam lately, including being raised as a possibility by Fletcher. It may be the worst option of all.

I don't want to get all traditional on you, but we're talking about the Toronto Maple Leafs here, not the Minnesota Wild. The captaincy of an Original Six team, even one wallowing in last place, should mean something. The Leafs have had six captains in the past 30 years. Do they really want to add six more in one season?

So leave the "C" on the sidelines for 2008-09. Use four alternate captains. See who steps up to fill the leadership void, and what kind of impact they can have. If somebody emerges as the team's undisputed leader, then and only then do you hand them the captaincy.

If it happens in time for next season, great. If not, better to go without for a few years than to force the role onto somebody who doesn't deserve it.

¹But if he has three bad games in a row, ship him to the Marlies.

Five reasons why things could get better

You people are hard to please.

You all tell me I'm too negative. Then, when I write 20 Good Things About The 2007-08 Leafs, some of you still find a way to call them "thinly veiled swipes at the team". I can't win.

So here, in a wrap-up to Optimism Week, is one last try. Here are five honest-to-goodness reasons for optimism in Leafs land.

They'll be far better at coach and GM

We don't know who they'll be. But we don't need to know their names to know that they'll be an upgrade over Maurice and Ferguson. And while the new GM will need a year or two to dig out from under JFJ's mess, coaches often have an immediate impact. If a new man behind the bench can do things Maurice never could -- like implement a defensive system, hold a veteran accountable, or call a timeout properly -- then the Leafs could get a boost right away.

Could you name an NHL team with worse coach/GM combo last year than the Leafs? Me neither. There's nowhere to go but up.

And the new coach will have one thing going for him...

They're only solid at one position in the entire organization -- but it's the most important one

Realistically, the Leafs are weak on defence and only average at forward (and that's assuming Sundin stays). But the goaltending outlook is solid. In fact, it may be excellent.

Vesa Toskala started slow last year, but in the second half he showed that he can be a top NHL goalie. He's not in the Brodeur/Luongo class, of course, but there are plenty of NHL teams that would trade their starter straight-up for Toskala in a heartbeat. With the exception of the Raycroft era, the Leafs have had excellent goaltending every year since Grant Fuhr arrived in 1991. Toskala looks like he may give that to them again.

And while the NHL club's best player is a goalie, the organization's best prospect is too. Justin Pogge's progress hasn't been as rapid as some had hoped (and Greg Gilbert seems hellbent on slowing it further), but he's still a top prospect with an excellent outlook.

If the Leafs are lucky, we could soon see Pogge playing Potvin to Toskala's Fuhr. And that worked out pretty well last time around.

And speaking of Pogge...

The Leafs have some decent young players

They don't have many decent young players (and they don't have any great young players), but the Leafs have put together a core group of reasonably talented youth. In addition to Pogge, the Leafs have prospects such as Jiri Tlustly and Nikolai Kulemin ready to play a role next year, and Jeremy Williams has shown flashes. Young NHLers such as Stajan, Steen, Colaiacovo and Stralman have shown promise. Even Kyle Wellwood could wake up from his donut coma in time to make a career for himself.

That's not a great list, but it's also not a bare cupboard. The Leafs have enough young talent to fill most of their second and third lines for years to come. And while there isn't a single sure-fire first line player on the list, the Leafs have other ways of filling those spots. Namely...

There's always free agency

It's an old joke among fans of other teams: These poor delusional Leaf fans think every free agent is desperate to go to Toronto at a discount. But the punchline is that it's often true. In the past few years, we've seen players like Gary Roberts, Curtis Joseph, Michael Peca, Eric Lindros and Joe Nieuwendyk turn down more money somewhere else to come to Toronto. And that's in addition to top FAs like Belfour and Mogilny who signed for fair value. Despite the best efforts of Richard Peddie, some players just really want to play in Toronto.

That's not a reflection on the franchise -- it has more to do with geography and history. There are more players from the Toronto area in the NHL than anywhere else, and some of those guys want to play in front of their families and/or for the team they grew up watching.

Combine that with the fact that the Leafs will always be able to spend to the upper limits of the salary cap, and you have a team that starts each free agency season a few steps ahead of most other franchises. It's not fair, but it's reality.

Of course, that doesn't mean they should spend on veteran FA's -- at least not any time soon. But when the times comes, there will be good players waiting for Toronto to call. And that time may not be as far off as everyone thinks, if only because...

We just don't know how long it takes to rebuild in today's NHL

Look, the Leafs are a mess right now. I'm the last guy to argue otherwise.

But at the same time, enough with all the talk of four- or five- or seven-year plans. The truth is we just don't know yet what the timelines look like for a rebuilding effort takes in the post-lockout NHL. But the early returns show it could be quicker than you'd think.

Since the lockout, we've seen some amazing turnarounds. Montreal finished behind the Leafs last year, then won the conference this year. The Flyers had the worst record in the league last year, and are in the final four today. The Capitals went from being Ovechkin and a bunch of stiffs to among the league's top teams almost overnight. And we're not even counting the Penguins, who are a special case thanks to the Crosby lottery.

On the other side of the coin, we've seen the Hurricanes win a Cup, then miss the playoffs in back-to-back years. The Sabres went from conference winner to afterthought in one season. It only took one year for the Canucks to go from contender to also-ran. The Senators did it in half a season.

What does all that have to do with the Leafs? Probably not much. For starters, the Habs, Caps and Flyers all had a far more talented group of young players than the Leafs do.

But the bottom line is that there's plenty of evidence to suggest that teams can go from pretenders to contenders (and back) very quickly in the era of early free agency and the salary cap. If the Leafs ever could get their act together, they could be back in contention much faster than any of the sky-is-falling crowd thinks possible.

(Even me.)

20 Good Things About the 2007-08 Leafs

Optimism Week continues at Down Goes Brown. My first post this week was kind of a copout, since I spent most of it talking about other teams. Baby steps, people.

But today, we're going all out. For this post, I will choose 20 members of the Leafs organization and say something nice about them.

Can I do it? Is it possible that 20 good things happened in this writeoff of a season? Let's find out.

Wait, why is the goalie wearing blue too?

Bryan McCabe - Offensive contribution was actually greater than stats would indicate, thanks to obscure NHL bylaw that only gives credit for goals scored into opponent's net.

Andrew Raycroft - Much like Martin Brodeur (chip shot off glass) and Rick DiPietro (quick outlet pass from behind net), has developed his own trademark play for clearing the zone: "faceoff at center ice".

Kyle Wellwood - Knows that despite advances in theoretical physics, scientists still can't explain exactly how gravity functions or rule out the slim possibility that it could unexpectedly cease to work in the future. So just in case, bravely dedicated his summer to making sure his couch didn't float away.

Mark Bell - Crushed every Sens fan's will to live by injuring Mike Fisher, destroying Daniel Alfredsson, and then somehow sneaking onto the ScotiaBank Place ice before a playoff game dressed as a fat guy in a gladiator helmet.

Anton Stralman - Certainly cleared up any lingering confusion over that whole "the next Niklas Lidstrom" thing.

Nik Antropov - Was arguably the only Leaf to exceed expectations this year, scoring just enough big goals to singlehandedly keep the team from getting a top draft pick.

It's getting closer, closer... hey, what does that horn mean?

Vesa Toskala - Constantly finding new and creative ways to challenge himself, such as resolving to stop all 180-foot slapshots using only sense of smell.

Jason Blake - Revolutionized youth hockey coaching by dedicating entire season to single-handedly disproving the old "It's never a bad play to shoot the puck" theory.

Carlo Colaiacovo - Successfully read this sentence without hurting himself.

Andy Wozniewski - Showed impressive courage and determination by repeatedly suiting up for NHL games despite being really, really horrible at playing hockey.

Jeremy Williams - Showed tremendous respect for the head coach who gave him two minutes of ice time a night, eventually realizing he was embarassing him by scoring every single game and cutting that out.

Cliff Fletcher - Is proactively working to improve the team the best way he knows how -- by repeatedly calling up Minnesota GM Doug Riseborough and asking him if he feels like trading his best players for a five-pack of crap.

Darcy Tucker - Fulfilled obligations as corporate spokesperson by always remembering to wear his "Kewl" brand hat during post-game interviews, or would have, had he ever done anything that would warrant a post-game interview.

Alex Steen - His play served as a soothing reminder for Leafs fans that all those first rounders JFJ traded away wouldn't necessarily have ended up being very good anyways.

Justin Pogge - Currently with the Marlies gaining extensive experience in not taking part in the playoffs, which will be invaluable once he graduates to the Leafs roster.

Pavel Kubina - Played about 20 minutes a game, scored a handful of big goals, and wasn't bad defensively. And hey, that's about all you can ask from a $5 million defenceman, right?

Ian White - Not one of those obnoxious spotlight-seeking pro atheletes who tries to hog media attention by ever actually doing anything noteworthy.

"What the hell, go ahead and take most of October and November off too."

Paul Maurice - Is a totally cool boss who lets his employees leave two months early every year.

Tomas Kaberle - Four-for-four performance in accuracy shooting during NHL Skills competition answered the age old question "Is Tomas Kaberle physically capable of actually shooting the god-damned puck?"

Mats Sundin - Sent a powerful message about loyalty, leadership, and finishing what you start, which will no doubt prove exceedingly inspirational for his new teammates once he signs with Detroit this summer.

What would it cost the Leafs to trade up to #1?

According to the Toronto Sun, Cliff Fletcher recently raised the idea of trading up at the draft, including the possibility of moving all the way up to #1.

Great idea. But what would it cost?

Impossible to know for sure, of course. For one, there’s nothing to suggest the Lightning will even make the pick available. If a bidding war developed, who knows where the final price could wind up.

But just for fun, let's see if we come up with an educated guess. If the Leafs wanted to trade up to #1 overall, what kind of offer would it take to get in the door?

NFL fans will recognize this chart, which outlines the approximate values for draft picks in a given year. (If you already know what the NFL Trade Chart is and want to skip to the part about how the Leafs and Stamkos, click here.)

The values start at 3,000 for the top pick and declines for each subsequent picks. The drop from the first pick to the second is steep, the drop from second to third slightly less so, and so on until later rounds when the point values decline slowly.

This makes sense -- the difference between one or two picks is enormous at the top of a draft, gets less important as the draft moves on, and all but washes out by the end. Math fans will recognize the points distribution as resembling (although not directly based on) a power law graph.

The chart is an approximation -- it isn't specific to any particular year or draft. It goes without saying that the value of a pick, especially one at the top of the first round, will fluctuate year-to-year depending on who is available. The #1 overall pick in Sidney Crosby's draft year was worth a lot more than in Patrick Stefan's. But “The Chart” as its known in NFL draft circles, often ends up being surprisingly accurate. More than a few recent NFL draft day trades have been made that matched perfectly based on chart value.

And while The Chart was designed for the NFL, it can be applied to other sports as well, at least as a starting point. Keep in mind that both the NFL and NHL have seven round drafts and a similar number of teams (32 vs 30), so the values will fit relatively well.

So what does The Chart say it would cost the Leafs to move up? Let's take a look.

The #1 overall pick is assigned a value of 3,000 points. The Leafs hold the seventh pick, which is valued at 1,500. So we'll start our offer there, and we're already halfway home.

Now it gets tricky. The Leafs don't own their second round pick this year -- it went to Phoenix is the Yanic Perrault trade. I'll pause here so you can curse JFJ and punch yourself in the temple a few times.

They do own the Penguins second rounder, thanks to Fletcher's Hal Gill trade. That would be the #57 pick if the draft was held today, although it could shift depending on who wins the Cup. For sake of argument let's call it #57, which gives it a value of 330 points.

So far our offer includes our top two picks, and we're not even close to fair value -- just 1,830 total, well short of the 3,000 we need. The Leafs third round pick will only carry a value in the 230 range, so clearly we're not going to get far by adding more picks. In fact, the Leafs could package every pick they own and it still wouldn't get them to fair value according to The Chart.

What about trading a pick from future seasons? That's a possibility. But keep in mind that the rule-of-thumb for draft picks is that a pick loses one round of value for each year in the future you go. That means that a 2009 second rounder would only be worth the equivalent of a 2008 third rounder. We're getting into diminishing returns here.

The bottom line is that if we want to make this deal happen, we're going to need to go out and get more picks.

So let's try that. If the Leafs could acquire a mid- to late-round pick in the first, their chances start to look better. For sake of argument, let's target the #22 pick (currently held by the Rangers, but again subject to change).

Who could the Leafs deal for a pick in that range? Tough call. Bryan McCabe and Darcy Tucker sure aren't getting it done. Pavel Kubina might have at the trade deadline, but probably not now. On the other hand, Alex Steen might fetch a late first rounder, and Nik Antropov would be a good candidate as well assuming his knee is OK.

Let's pull the trigger for that #22 pick, which The Chart values at 780 points. That brings us to 2,610 points. We're just 390 points short of fair value now.

That's the equivalent of a mid-second rounder, which the Leafs don't have. So you're looking at moving another player off the roster. As a ballpark, players on the current roster who could fetch a second rounder would probably includes guys like Ponikoravsky, or maybe Ian White.

So based on The Chart and our imaginary wheeling and dealing, here's what that trade for the #1 overall pick would look like.

To Toronto: #1 overall pick
To Tampa Bay: #7 overall, #22 overall (at a cost of Alex Steen or Nik Antropov), the #51 pick (cost: Ian White or Alex Ponikoravsky), and Pittsburgh's #57 pick

Of course, there would be other ways to make a deal work. Tomas Kaberle has plenty of trade value, for example -- find a way to work him in and you're going to make your job easier. There's also the possibility of players coming back to Toronto in a deal, additional teams becoming involved, etc.

But at least we have a starting point. Two first rounders, and two seconds. That's two good young players off the roster, and no picks in between #1 and the early third round. And my gut tells me that this offer, while in the ballpark, wouldn't be enough to close a deal.

What do you think? Too much to give up? Not enough? Would you make the deal?

Are the Leafs the softest team in the NHL?

I've been thinking about this topic for a few days, but after watching Ponikarovsky get pummeled tonight while his teammates stood around pretending not to notice, I think it's now a legitimate question: are the Leafs the softest team in the entire NHL right now?

A quick check over a hockeyfights.com shows that the Leafs have had only 21 fighting majors this year, ranking 28th out of 30 teams.

It gets worse. That pathetic number is actually grossly inflated as far as the current lineup goes, since the players responsible for most of those fights are no longer with the team. Between the trades of Belak (six) and Gill (two), the injury to Bell (four) and the demotions of Battaglia and Ondrus (one each), the current Leafs lineup has only managed seven fighting majors on the year.

I'll pause here so you can read that last sentence again.

It gets worse. Those seven fights have come from Darcy Tucker, Kris Newbury, Matt Stajan and Bryan McCabe. So the only players in the lineup tonight to have dropped their gloves all year are two guys who are 5'10 on their tippy toes, one guy who had never fought before in his life, and a guy who can't remember which net to shoot at in overtime.

Of course, fighting isn't the only measure of team toughness (although it's a pretty good one, right Ducks fans?). But in the case of the Leafs, I don't think the fighting totals are some sort of aberration or fluke. This is just an easy team to play against these days, almost ridiculously easy to push around and completely incapable of even the slightest intimidation.

This isn't a new development -- remember last year's pathetic display in New Jersey, as the entire team watched their best player get scraped off the ice after a dirty hit from a no-talent thug and did exactly nothing about it? This team was soft at the start of the year, and the recent moves have only made the situation worse.

It wasn't always this way. Ever since the excellent Kordic for Courtnall deal, the Leafs have ranged from adequately tough to downright nasty for almost two decades, culminating in the 2002-4 era squad that would occasionally jump into opponent's benches or try to kick guys in the head during fights. Or, as we call it in Toronto, "the glory years".

Am I overstating the case? I don't think so, but I wanted to be fair about it. So let's take a look at the current squad, player by player. And there's only one fair way to do that -- with a completely arbitrary Toughness Scale™ that I just invented right now.

Level 1 - That guy looked at me funny, I better shut it down for the rest of the game just in case.

Tomas Kaberle - Probably the only Leaf on Level 1 who has the talent to justify it.

Johnny Pohl - Not likely to stick with the team after this year, but based on his name he could have a promising career in porn.

Anton Stralman - The rookie may still be finding his comfort zone, but so far he hasn’t shown much in this department.

Jiri Tlusty - Certainly has potential, but so far has been disappointingly soft. Was that a naked photo joke? You be the judge.

Kyle Wellwood - I’m flattering him with this ranking.

Ian White - That’s three of our six defencemen at level one, for those keeping track. I can’t imagine why this team doesn’t play well in its own zone.

Level 2 - All things considered I’d really rather stay here on the perimeter, thanks

Jason Blake - Wasn’t he supposed to be an “agitator”? Was that supposed to refer to the other team, or just Leaf fans?

Boyd Devereaux - Pro: He’s on the checking line. Con: May have the wimpiest name in Leaf history.

Dominic Moore - I haven’t seen much of him, to be honest. But he plays on the checking line, so he must have some sandpaper. Also gets extra room because players are afraid that if they hit him, he’ll get the family lawyer to sue them for millions.

Matt Stajan - This may be stretching it. But at least he was the one Leaf who looked mad during the 8-0 Panther game, so that’s something.

Alexander Steen - Much like his offensive contributions, the gritty side of his game shows up about once every two weeks and then goes back into hibernation. Still, anyone who can stagger Chara with a hit gets to stay clear of level one.

Jeremy Williams - To be honest, I couldn’t tell you how tough he is because Maurice only gives him ice time during Wellwood’s gravy-chug breaks.

Level 3 - Not looking to start anything, but won’t run and hide

Nik Antropov - He’s big, and just a little bit crazy. Almost never fights and is disturbingly injury prone, but he gets points for being just about the only player on the entire team who seems to be aware that the NHL got rid of the “in the crease” rule.

Carlo Colaiacovo - Is one of the league’s under-rated open ice hitters. Several times a year he’ll spot someone with their head down, launch himself at them, lay them out, and then spend a month of the injured list recovering. That still gives him enough time to land six or seven hits a year, which has him vying for the team lead.

Pavel Kubina - Not a fighter, but has an occasional mean streak that will serve him well in Columbus or Edmonton or whatever level of hell Fletcher can dispatch him to.

Bryan McCabe - Total NHL fights before signing $28M contract - 58. Total fights after signing $28M contract - 2. Just sayin'.

Alex Ponikarovsky - I’m probably overrating him, but he does seem to have a touch of that Danny Markov-style "could snap at any time" edge to him. Don’t forget, this guy once went toe-to-toe with Rob Ray. Yes, he lost the fight, ending the Leafs 14-year streak of victories over Rob Ray, but he still gets some points from this corner.

Mats Sundin - He doesn’t change his game one bit when the going gets tough. He’s probably a little soft for someone his size, but reasonably tough for someone of his skill level. Rumor is he’d like to fight, but his gloves stubbornly refuse to waive their no-drop clause.

Level 4 - Not afraid to go looking for trouble

Mark Bell - Prior to his injury, showed that he was definitely willing to get his nose dirty – usually with his own blood and fragments of his orbital bone. May be pound-for-pound the worst fighter in the league not named Hal Gill, but at least he looked interested when the temperature went up.

Kris Newbury - He’s ready and willing. The jury is still out on the “able” part, though. I like this kid, but let’s put it this way–you’re never going to see a game where the opponent's tough guy throws a few big hits, and the camera pans dramatically over to Kris Newbury snarling on the bench.

Darcy Tucker - He seems to have permanently buried the Sideshow Bob persona, but will still throw his weight around. Unfortunately, that ends up being about 165 lbs. Will still drop the mitts, though, even when he knows he’s taking one for the team. At least a 20% chance he snaps this year, tries to fight a legitmate heavyweight and is killed, which will have interesting salary cap implications.

Level 5 - Genuinely intimidating

Um...

(Crickets chirping)

(Tumblewed blows by.)

So what do you think? Have I been too harsh? Too easy on them? Is this in fact the softest team in the entire NHL?

Sundin's move sends a strong message to the kids... unfortunately.

Those who are trying to spin Sundin's decision as a Good Thing have thrown various ideas against the wall. One of them is that Mats is sending a powerful message to the team's young players about loyalty and leadership. On the surface this makes some sense, but I wasn't sure.

Luckily, with the Leafs currently holed up in an Ottawa hotel before tonight's game, I was able to sneak over and infiltrate their team lunch and listen in to a conversation between Mats and the young players.

Here's the undedited transcript. I think it sheds a lot of light on the direction the team will be heading.

Scene: A private booth in the lobby restaurant of the Brookstreet Hotel, Kanata, Ontario.

Steen: Uncle Mats, the newspapers say you turned down a chance to go to another team for a "playoff run". What are the "playoffs"?

Sundin: Gather 'round, children. I have magnificent tales to tell.

Stralman: Are the playoffs very different from the regular season?

Sundin: Yes, they are. For example, you play the same team over and over again. For like two weeks. It's actually kind of like we do once a year with the Bruins, but for two straight months.

Tlusty: Is it true that the games are all... how you say in english... "important"?

Sundin: Please put your pants on Jiri.

Tlusty: Oops.

Sundin: But yes, the games are very important. Remember that one game we played at the end of last year against the Habs, where it actually mattered whether we won or not, and we all agreed to at least kind of try?

Steen: Vaguely.

Sundin: Well, in the playoffs, every game is like that.

Wellwood: mrphl mrblm frfllf

Sundin: I can't understand you Kyle. Finish the donut and try again.

Wellwood: Forry. (Gulp.) Is it true that there are no shootouts in the playoffs?

Sundin: Indeed. In the playoffs, if you want to skate in slowly and indecisively and then miss the net, you have to do it five-on-five.

Everyone: Wow...

Sundin: And here's the most amazing thing. You know how we go on losing streaks all the time, and nobody does a thing, and nothing ever changes?

Everyone: (Nods)

Sundin: Well, in the playoffs, if you lose four games out of seven, they make you go home.

Everyone: (Gasps)

Sundin: They make you clean out your locker. You're not allowed to play any more.

Steen: Oooh, I don't like the sound of that.

Wellwood: Sounds scary.

Stajan: I just peed a little.

Sundin: Oh, don't worry boys. You play for the Maple Leafs. You won't have to worry about those scary "playoffs" for a very long time. So my advice would be to just negotiate a big contract, don't forget your no-trade clause, and settle in for the long haul. Winning's over-rated. Staying all snug and warm in your personal comfort zone is the important thing.

Everyone: Thanks Uncle Mats! Now we know what it means to be a Maple Leaf!