Occasional Links

Why the recession is lasting so long.

Communicating through touch.

Revolution in China?

Fairness is hard-wired into the brain.

What makes unemployment go down.

Noah's Ark was round.

Evolution is driven through constant warfare, not adaptation to the environment.

The rise of Asia.

Data über alles.

"The British are our friends."

Green Shoots

On Monday, March 9th, the DJIA hit a low of 6,547. It has since risen to a high of 8,574 on May 8th, a rise of 31%. I have yet to see a convincing explanation of what triggered the rise beginning on March 10th but the full court press by the Obama Administration, including Fed Chairman Bernanke's unprecedented "Green Shoots 60 Minutes appearance on March 15th certainly provided fuel for a rally which appears to be based more upon wish than upon reality.

I've been trying to determine just what the "green shoots" to which Chairman Bernanke referred might have been. I've been through the BEA data on the GDP (through Q1 09), the BLS data on the employment situation, the Fed Flow of Funds report for Q4 08 in relationship to its current Consumer Credit report through March and the INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION report, also through March. In an effort to try and determine where Bernanke saw some green shoots I even combed the Treasury Daily Statements in an effort to find a hint of green in the tax deposit data. I did note a brief rise in tax deposits beginning on March 6th but it was completely and badly reversed beginning on March 20th.

The data for the graph below were drawn from the Daily Treasury Statements.



The jibber jabber from the Obama Administation is completely understandable. They prove their incompetence every single day and the smoke they were blowing on March 15th was neither thicker nor dirtier than usual. Lying comes as naturally as breathing to them and the public is finally beginning to apply the appropriate discount to every word emanating from the administration.

The Federal Reserve Board is supposed to be separate from the administration. I'm going to find it very difficult to continue to believe that such a separation exists unless Chairman Bernanke clarifies his definition of a green shoot with attendant data provided regarding the period preceding his March 15th remarks. His apparent donning of a cheerleader costume does nothing to inspire trust. The economy is going nowhere until some degree of trust is reestablished by at least one player in this melodrama. The great cowards of Wall Street aren't up to the task and the gross incompetents within the administration, tax cheat Geithner in the lead, inspire confidence only that massive theft is occurring on a daily basis. It's going to be a very long haul if Bernanke slides into the darkness with the others mentioned.

As an aside - the Treasury tax data is, IMO, the set to watch. I'll believe we've hit bottom when that 63 day average flattens out. Demographics dictates that the recovery, when it finally begins, is going to be weak and 'thin'. The last of the Boomers turn 45 this year while the first are already swelling the number of Social Security recipients. That means that the key (wrt disposable income) 45-55 bracket will shrink just as the number of retirees, watching their spending very carefully, grows. Add the increase in saving occasioned by the huge number of people very close to retirement trying to replenish what used to be healthy 401Ks and the source of funds to fire up the economy really becomes a question mark.

Sunday Links

Global warming mongers embarrassingly debunked.

How much per second?

Is there a genius in all of us?

Chromosome division is different between women and men.

Putin: why do we need so many stinkin' elections?

North Korea gets tough.

Can ancient Chinese medicine yield a cure for AIDS?

Some transitions are more equal than others.

Is China its own worst enemy?

How to hide molecules.

Venezuela down the tubes.

How to bail out GM.

Why ant colonies don't have traffic jams.

Dictatorship in Nicaragua.

Time travel in Google Earth.

Sunday Links

Palin is the poorest.

Introducing CostToDrive.

Chavez wants the bomb.

Who brought on the crisis?

The Spanish baby-jumping festival.

It's about the authenticity, stupid.

10 persuasion techniques.

Ever-new depths of shamelessness from the Macbeth family.

Just a spoonful of sugar helps the radioactive scorpion venom go down.

Biden's repeated lies.

Friday Links

On moral philosophers and child murderesses.

A complete collapse in the ethics market.

Snow on Mars.

Exiled to Siberia for his rap song.

Martian fossils?

No honor among thieves with machine guns.

Dragonfly robots for Mars.

Africom goes operational.

You think the CIA is a bunch of clowns? Check out these guys.

Making coasts invisible to tsunamis.

80 of the best web illustrator resources.

Bleeding without being cut.

Addicted to debt.

Wednesday Links

Democracy won.

Rescuing children from forced marriage—in England.

Carbon nanotubes was the secret of Damascus steel.

China's secret African slave empire.

Rich men are more likely to find mates, sire children.

The newest prime number.

Iran is more important than Wall Street.

Fourth time's a charm.

Mortgage brochures from hell.

Search Flickr by color.

Things you can get for free.

The warrior and the priest.

The social threat of naked long-buyers.

Learning from mistakes only works after age 12.

Study a little history, lest you relive it.

How government went wrong with mortgages.

Sunday Links

We overbid because we are afraid.

We won the debate.

A detector for anything.

Is the fire back in Intel's belly?

The Caspian Sea Monster.

4 aspects of a well-done critique.

Jetpacking over the English Channel.

It's his policies, stupid.

A 20% fuel efficiency improvement?

Is North Korea changing?

Goal-setting for skeptics.

Faking the space reports.

The first sound bites.

The Somali pirates grab some tanks.

Is this Cassandra's moment?

Russia needs a missile defense shield too.

Wednesday Links

Is Obama shrinking?

Russian warships in the Caribbean.

High-speed molecular shape-shifting captured.

Cramer explains the meltdown.

The geography of personality.

How to get audio transcribed cheaply on Mechanical Turk.

Big Government to the rescue.

270 tools for your online business.

A neolithic hospital?

Life imitates art.

Defending the City.

Speculation and fraud got us here.

Neanderthals feasting on seals and dolphins.

Drive your company into the ground, get rich.

The pre-crime detector.

New world, new rules.

Sunday Links

Reasons for economic optimism.

Iran's asymmetric naval warfare.

The Golden Rules for making money, 1880.

How McCain looks to a real economist.

Al Qaida's defeat in Iraq.

Oktapodi.

Russia successfully fires a new ICBM.

Declining air pollution is causing more rain.

10 reasons to write every day.

The huge terrorist suicide bomb in Pakistan.

Virtual boyfriends.

Nanoscopic meadows to drive your electric car.

Telepathy machines—sooner than you think.

Drug subs in Seattle.

Fighting in the German streets to find who's right and who's wrong.

What's coming and what's going?

Friday Links

In a crisis, you want a crisis manager.

Software that spots the spin in political speeches (check out the graph).

Bring on the business failure tax.

Secret Big Brother in Germany.

Selling arms to Iran and Venezuela.

Are crows smarter than monkeys?

Greed beyond irresponsible.

Big Brother for your car.

Bring back the Resolution Trust Corp.

The fastest life on the planet.

The Rosenbergs were definitely spies.

Russia wants a piece of the Arctic.

Wednesday Links

Wall Street is kaput.

Mickey Mouse must die.

Enough with the economic pessimism nonsense.

A breast cancer vaccine that works?

Business based solely on ramping up risk and leverage doesn't work.

Twilight of the GPU.

Diving deep into the Obama tank.

Search outside the law of the land.

Who runs Russia?

An object unlike any ever seen before.

Sharia courts are operating in Britain.

The first new family of ants since 1923.

How Petraeus did it.

Embracing English after all.

Not clear on the facts.

Do the hinterlanders reject "liberalism" or are they deeply racist?

She's not really top, top drawer, is she?

Friday Links

How North Korea feels.

Repressed hate.

Cosmic dark matter gets a divorce from regular matter.

McCain's golden opportunity.

25 places to read free books online.

Cold War, the sequel?

Lost cities of the Amazon jungle.

The four horsemen of economic apocalypse.

Evolution smiles on war mongers.

Why the US is in deep denial about the deep doo-doo.

Crows never forget a face.

No more beauty contest of the nuns.

How hate campaigns are run.

Introducing Connections.

Putin: Da Bush made me do it!

Wednesday Links

We weren't duped, but who cares anymore?

Female and male memory mechanisms are genetically different.

Gordon Brown and the Chinese Mata Haris.

The trams of France.

The Apple Computer of electric car companies.

Why every woman is a "10" from the male perspective.

The most dangerous country.

Chinese Barnums taking advantage of American suckers.

The growth of the Intermountain West.

Robots finding illegal immigrants.

Is the research paper tail getting shorter?

Fighting obesity with bread?

The point of maximum danger to the world economy.

A tribe found with no sense of number whatsoever. Is "innate mathematical sense" nonsense?

Friday Links

The best places to have cancer.

Socialism gone amok.

Turns out we're Cro-Magnons, not Neanderthals.

The worst inflation since 1982.

The alternative to American power.

Beware the rave-laser.

Is it an oil bubble?

Rich or funny?

A good use of Wordle. (H/T: Barry Ritholz)

Peering through the Earth to view the sky.

Thursday Links

Is the war over?

Struck by lightning, she lives to tell the tale (and show you the video).

Is mocking now a thing of the past?

When you want those moquitoes to bite you.

The illegal immigrant criminal network exposed.

Chariot racing redux?

Why the race is tied.

Dark Knight raises the bar.

A baffling economy.

Burgers in Paris.

Is the US broke?

The saga continues: AOL + Microsoft? Is MapQuest the new Maps.Live?

Sex with her brother?

The latest in sweeteners.

Can you crack the mysterious missive?

Friday Links

Spare us the sob stories.

Goodbye air pollution, hello warming?

Hire your personal farmer.

Leadership and honesty personified.

The coming of big data to the desktop.

Chinese spying is growing in the US.

Erotic furniture.

A record drought in Colorado.

Dissent in Iran.

There's just not enough room on this planet for all three of us.

Is it just hot air?

Have sex, go to jail for six years.

All talk and no substance; all praise where praise is due.

The high priest of peak oil.

Wednesday Links

Cancel the continuing kangaroo courts in Canada.

Trade saved America from recession.

Is the Secret Service illegally grabbing hackers in Deutschland? [Sorry, German version only.]

A genetically modified cure for AIDS?

From heroes to victims.

Stubble is the way to a woman's heart.

The NT kernel, intelligently discussed.

Flying cars are coming.

Darwin vs. Lincoln.

Play games. Learn immunology.

The best of the China blogs.

The robotic musical sensation.

Obama's wealthy supporters.

The last generation of Europeans?

Indian culture revealed.

Sunday Links

Hawking et al. explain inflation (the cosmic kind).

The Fed allows inflation (the earthly kind).

The 13 best movie robots.

Your brain, the liar.

"Kiss my ass" says Clinton to Obama.

Vacation in a concrete pipe, a jail, or a TV tower!

BillG's top 10 greatest hits and misses.

First steps to Gattaca.

Make your own energy for fun and profit.

Think happy thoughts.

Sunday Links

CIA: US gaining big on Al-Qaida.

Cracking the brain's code.

China's cyber-militia.

Redefining marriage as between one man and several women.

Advantage Crichton.

The Book of the Policeman.

Buy Ford.

The Book of Optics.

Bush is keeping America safe.

Avoid paying retail.

An economic reality check.

Friday Links

Recent glaciers on Mars?

The sky's not actually falling yet.

First look at Live Mesh.

Maliki succeeds.

Is the Big Shopping Spree over?

Removing the Storm Botnet, one PC at a time.

The new magician.

Al Qaida angry at Iranian lies.

The sky almost fell—70,000 years ago.

Economy and Empire.

Astrology debunked.

Nuclear Syria.