A Clean Slate For Property Rights, Entities, Federalism, And Related Matters

There are some economic and legal reforms which are hard to make now, but starting with a clean slate would have been better to have made differently, or which are just structural reforms.

Mineral Rights And Water Rights

* All mineral rights should be owned by the government and merely leased by firms exploiting them.

* The rights of surface owners of land over mineral rights leased by the government should follow the Colorado rule (which requires underground mining that preserves the rights to support of the surface owners) and not the Wyoming rule (which permits strip mining).

* All water rights should be owned by the government and leased annually to water users. All water users in the same watershed would pay the same lease rate based upon an auction. Market failures and transaction costs cause inefficient overallocation of water at very cheap prices to agricultural users to the detriment of fishing, recreational use, and municipal water use.

* Grazing land would be primarily publicly owned with the right to graze cattle on open ranges leased.

Wildlife Management

* To the extent possible, management of wildlife populations with natural predators, like bears, wolves, and mountain lions, would be preferred to hunting.

Real Property Rights

* Legal life estates and other present and future interests in real property should not be permitted. Someone wishing to create the equivalent to a life estate could establish a trust in which some beneficiaries had equitable life estates and others had equitable remainder interests. Existing legal life estates could be deemed to be trusts in which the present interest holder is the trustee for the benefit of themselves and all future interest holders.

* The race-notice statute should be modified so that a person with an interest in real property created by a written instrument could only benefit from the notice provisions for up to four months from the date of the instrument to gain priority over a recorded instrument creating rights in land. Written instruments creating an interest in real property that are more than four years old would be subordinate to the rights of the owners and encumbrances of record.

* Judgment liens would be possible to record against all real property in the state owned by a debtor in a single state filing.

* Ancillary probate of real estate would be replaced with a requirement to give full faith and credit to an executor, personal representative, or administrator appointed in the place of domicile, subject only to state homestead exemptions.

Property Taxes

* Education would be funded through state income, sales, and gifts and estate taxes, not through local property taxes.

* Non-profits, including churches and state government property, would not be exempt from property taxes, but state government property would be assessed at the state level rather than at the local level.

* Property tax assessors, and state and county treasurers, would be civil service appointments, not elected.

Limited Liability Entities and Judgment Liens

* Ownership interests in entities would have to be recorded with a state registrar, although this information would only be available to interested parties. 

* Trusts would be registered with the state registrar rather than with courts of probate jurisdiction.

* Trusts and estates would be treated as entities for state law purposes.

* Judgment liens should be possible to record against all interests in entities in a state with a single state filing.

* All limited liability entities would be required to be bonded against the claims of trade creditors and insured to standards established by regulation, with the bonding agent and insurers made a matter of public record. The directors, officers, managers, and partners of the entity would have joint and several personal liability for any failure to do so, guaranteed by the owners if they, collectively, were unable to satisfy any debts of the company that should have been bonded or insured.

Local v. State Authority

* Occupational licensing in the construction trades, and building codes, should be regulated at the state level, rather than the local level.

* Local governments should not be permitted to have their own courts and instead would enforce their rights, including ordinance violations, in the appropriate state courts.

* Local governments should not be permitted to enact ordinances for which incarceration is a penalty, other than contempt of court punishments for violations of injunctions previously imposed against a particular defendant in a state court proceeding brought by the local government against that particular defendant.

* Zoning and use regulation by local governments would be limited at the state level.

Copyrights and Intellectual Property

* Copyrights should have a much shorter term, such as the pre-1976 rule of 26 years from publication and an additional 26 years if a copyright registration is renewed, which a separate regime protecting the exclusive right of the authors to publish and register unpublished works. Works not published within 26 years of the death of the author would be in the public domain. This might be accomplished with a one time buyout of existing copyrights more than 52 years old at fair market value or a nominal amount for unmarketed and unappraised copyrights.

* There would be mandatory licensing of copyrighted works, handled by one or more non-profits for performances of all musical works, all orphan works, translations of works for which had not been translated into a particular language pursuant to a license within some designated period of time after the publication of the work in its original language, and almost all other derivative works.

* The scope of the derivative work right for copyrights would be greatly narrowed.

* Statutory damages for copyright violations would be abolished. Economic damages for copyright violations would be limited to unjust enrichment relative to licensing the work, or lost profits relative to licensing the work, whichever was greater.

* Common law trademark rights in trademarks not registered in the principal register under the Lanham Act (including rights under state trademark filings) would be exclusively a matter of federal law.

* Rights of publicity would be exclusively a matter of federal law.

* Royalty income from intellectual property would be taxable where the sale giving rise to the transfer takes place, not where the owner of the intellectual property is domiciled.

Federal Court Jurisdiction

* Federal court diversity jurisdiction not involving international diversity would be abolished.

* Federal question jurisdiction in cases between private parties not involving other specific grants of federal court jurisdiction (e.g. in the cases of intellectual property, civil rights, certain class actions, and election law cases) would be abolished.

* Federal crimes for matters that can be prosecuted under state law, like bank robbery, intrastate controlled substances violations, and most murders, would be repealed.

* Felonies committed in Indian Country would be governed by new Indian Country District Courts and a U.S. Court of Appeals for Indian Country, and a related Indian Country law enforcement agency, rather than by the relevant U.S. attorney's office and the FBI.

* The lowest level immigration offense of illegal entry would be made a civil offense governed primarily by the immigration courts, and decriminalized (this makes up a significant share of the total criminal docket in many U.S. District Courts).

* The immigration courts would be reformed and made Article III courts. A right to an attorney at public expense would be established in the immigration courts.

Economic Prosperity Is Not An Intrinsic Function Of Geography

Taiwan is the dominant producer of advanced computer chips in the entire world. One could ask "why?" One could also reframe the question and ask, "why aren't advanced computer chips manufactured in California or Michigan or Ohio or Massachusetts? 

There is a lot of concern that rare earth metals are predominantly sourced from China. If there was ever a war with China, that could be a problem, because a lot of advanced military equipment relies upon them. There has been a fair amount written about this issue. Despite the name, unlike diamonds and platinum group metals which have deposits only a few places on Earth, for example, rare earth metals aren't actually particularly rare. There are many places on Earth with abundant rare earth metal deposits and there was a time when they were mined in the U.S. and many other places. 

China is dominant in rare earth metal production because it is the low cost producer of a resource that there wasn't all that much demand for until recently. And, while it is the low cost producer, it isn't all that dramatically cheaper. The difference between the production costs for oil in low cost production areas like Saudi Arabia and high cost production areas like off shore drilling in the Arctic and fracking in the U.S. is greater than the differences in the cost of exploiting rare earth metals in China compared to doing so in the U.S. before the industry more or less withered away here.

There is no intrinsic reason that the dominant diamond cutting center in the world is a single city in India, or that it movie industry is concentrated in "Bollywood". 

There is no intrinsic reason that the financial industry in the U.S. is highly centralized around centers in New York and San Francisco, that the commodities trading industry in the U.S. continues to be highly centralized in Chicago, that a huge share of American actuaries work in Connecticut, that Delaware is the dominant player in the corporate law of big businesses, that the book publishing industry is centered in New York City, the U.S. movie production is concentrated in Los Angeles, that U.S. TV and music production is split between Los Angeles and New York City (except for country music which is centered in Nashville and Memphis in Tennessee), and that new musicals and stage plays in the U.S. are highly concentrated in New York City, that the U.S. robotics industry is centered in Boston, ands the the U.S. tech industry has its headquarters in San Jose. Vancouver, Toronto, and Prague have no intrinsic advantage that make them secondary centers for filming movies and mini-series.

Indeed, intrinsic availability of natural resources or intrinsic geographic advantages is something of a curse to economic development. West Virginia's abundant coal resources (like other centers of coal mining in Europe) did not make it rich. The unique in the world supplies of diamonds and platinum group metals in a small area of South Africa weren't all that important in its relative prosperity on the African continent. Yemen's optimal farming conditions haven't made it prosperous. Western Pennsylvania's oil reserves didn't bring that region lasting prosperity. The unique in the world supplies of ultra-pure quartz in Western North Carolina didn't make that region particularly affluent.  Bolivia isn't particularly prosperous despite having some of the richest supplies of lithium in the world. Panama's unique location and its canal have not made the country an economic standout with respect to its Latin American neighbors. Venezuela's rich supplies of oil haven't prevented it from being an economic basket case. Afghanistan's abundant poppy fields didn't stop it from being the poorest country in Eurasia. In India, the standard of living of a place is basically inversely related to its geographically determined agricultural productivity.

Economic prosperity does show sharp breaks at national and subnational borders. But it is even more tightly tied to particular, reasonably compact, urban centers, and sometimes even to particular neighborhoods within major urban centers. The boroughs of Queens and Staten island aren't the source of New York City's dominance in finance, entertainment, or publishing. When professionals and craftsmen with similar sets of skill are located close to each other there are synergies that benefit these entire economic communities and allow them to achieve excellence. Knowledge based economies have returns to scale.

The Unattainable Possible

Lots of the things I'd like to see in the United States already exist elsewhere.

If you want to look at societies with almost no civilian gun ownership, you need look no farther than Japan and the United Kingdom. No other country is as gun ridden as the U.S.

Just about everyplace in the developed and developing world has more affordable, universal healthcare that also happens to produce better results. Most developed countries also make higher education more affordable than the U.S.

There are dozens of countries with society in general, and the election administration and the courts in particular, are less corrupt and partisan.

Lots of countries are better at not punishing innocent people in their criminal justice systems. Few countries are so extremely punitive in their criminal punishments.

Only a handful of societies have as many Evangelical Christians or comparable religious fundamentalists as the U.S. does, and a great many societies have more secular populations than the United States.

Few Western countries are so plagued by having massive shares of their electorates that are deeply disconnected from reality.

Many countries translate the popular will into legislative power more accurately in their political systems than the U.S. does.

Many countries have lower drinking ages and don't have almost fully criminalized prostitution. A number of countries have less punitive approaches to drugs.

Most developed countries treat workers better, and have a better work-life balance.

Japan does a better job of providing affordable housing in major cities. Lots of countries are better at land use regulation. China does a better job of building major construction projects quickly and efficiently.

France and many other countries use more nuclear power and use less coal than the United States. Several countries have a bigger market share of EV vehicles. Many countries have better high speed rail systems.

Most developed countries do a better job of taxing the rich, maintaining a social safety net, and discouraging extreme income inequality. Few developed countries have the serious homelessness problem that the U.S. does.

All but a couple countries use the metric system, while the U.S. is one of the countries with a mostly non-metric hybrid system.

Many countries do a better job of preventing consumer/investor/ordinary person oriented fraud and deceptive trade practices. Most countries have posted prices that are the real price of a good and services being purchased, which are not adjusted up to reflect sales taxes and tips. 

The U.S. is hardly the worst place in the world. It is affluent and economically productive. It has a grossly disproportionate share of the best colleges and universities in the world. It has the most advanced air force, the largest navy, and some of the most well-trained ground troops. It's financial markets generally work pretty well. It has a large foreign born population on a percentage basis that is quite well integrated into society (which isn't to say that it doesn't have political tensions over immigration). There are developed countries where the far-right movements are worse and more powerful although the U.S. is right up there among them. The products of its entertainment industry are world class. The U.S. is among the most protective in the world of free speech and religious freedom (even to a fault). The U.S. is one of the best places in the world to be a Jew and is home to about 40%-45% of the world's Jews.

But knowing that goals for the U.S. are attained elsewhere, but are unattainable in the U.S. despite being possible, is very frustrating.

The Geopolitical Impacts And Timing Of The Decline Of Fossil Fuels

Colorado will not use any coal for electricity generation by 2031. It currently has ten coal fired power plants. It will take three of them off line in 2025. The rest are scheduled to be taken off line in the five years that follow.

Colorado will be more aggressive than most states in this time frame, but some states are already coal free, and almost all states are reducing the extent to which coal powers their electrical grids.

Greatly improved solid state electric vehicle batteries will start coming on line in 2025 and vehicles powered by them will make up a large share of new vehicles by 2031, greatly reducing gasoline and diesel consumption.

These developments, taken together, will greatly reduce U.S. fossil fuel consumption over the next seven years, and the reduction will be particularly dramatic for coal consumption. The falling demand for coal will hit Wyoming and West Virginia hard, because they are the two dominant producers of coal right now in the U.S. (the U.S. imports little, if any, coal). This will also heavily impact freight rail and barge transportation demand, because those are the two main ways that coal is delivered to power plants. Coal is the single largest revenue stream for both means of transportation.

The coal fired power plants are being replaced largely by wind, solar, and natural gas over the next seven years. So, the U.S. is going to see continued strong demand for natural gas, which is mostly sourced from North America, but should be seeing a gradual decline in petroleum demand (a fuel that the U.S. is largely self-sufficient in now, although global oil prices still influence domestic oil prices). The energy self-sufficiency of the U.S., however, buffers it from major macroeconomic shocks driven by rising oil prices like those seen in the late 1970s and early 1980s.

The increase in the share of vehicles that are electric, spurred by solid state batteries, will be global. Indeed, many places in Europe are already in the lead on this front. And, since gasoline and diesel powered vehicles are the predominant end use of oil, this should drive down the price of oil in the global market. This will make high cost oil producers, like fracking wells and off-shore oil rigs, uneconomic first.

Meanwhile, the Ukraine War has put intense pressure on Europe, which has cut off or reduced access to Russian oil and gas, to be more efficient in order to reduce its fossil fuel consumption, to increase it share of renewable power, to delay shutting down coal fired power plants, and to keep its nuclear power plants on line. This may mean more insulation, more blankets and sweaters, more heat pumps, more electric vehicles, a shift to buses and trains, and fewer natural gas power plants.

China is in the way of these developments strongly addressing global warming, because it seems to be increasing, rather than decreasing, its coal consumption in the short to medium term. 

But China is also a world leader in electric car production and in building a high speed rail network, so China may play an important part in reducing global petroleum consumption. And, China's path in electric vehicle development is likely to heavily influence countries in Southeast Asia that in its sphere of influence, and to a lesser extent, may influence Africa and South America in which China has attempted to expand its economic influence.

China is also a leading producer of high efficiency, low cost solar panels, and eventually this, together with its rapidly declining fertility rates and starting to shrink population, may make its current round of investments in coal fired power plants short lived.

As oil demand and prices fall, this will eventually undermine the often authoritarian leaning countries with heavily oil dependent economies, in the Middle East, but also Brunei, Russia, Venezuela, and Nigeria. It will also impact Norway, the U.K., Canada, and U.S. states like Alaska, Louisiana, and Texas that are major oil producers. Oil wealth is what has made ultra-conservative Islam feasible in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states. It has been central to the economies of Iran and Iraq. It has been an important factor allowing Russia and Venezuela and Iran to continue to be authoritarian.

These countries will see a collapse in their standard of living and they will face intense pressure to convert to a commercial economy. Most of their "guest workers" will be sent home for good.

Public Opinion On Secession

If Texas, Oklahoma, and Alaska left the U.S. to become independent nations, the national politics of the United States would shift decisively to the left (and secession would likely be more popular in those states if it wasn't clearly illegal). 

The departure of those states, all of which are major U.S. petroleum producers, would also greatly weaken the power of oil and gas interests in Congress.

Fossil fuel production per capita:

Per capita GDP by state (% fossil fuel revenue):

* Wyoming $67,326 - 80.0%
* North Dakota $74,005 - 65.9%
* Alaska $72,274 - 27.4%
* New Mexico $49,879 - 30.7%
* West Virginia $45,272 - 28.6%
* Oklahoma $49,745 - 20.4%
* Louisiana $52,079 - 13.9%
* Texas $66,646 - 9.2%
* Pennsylvania $60,910 - 8.6%
* Colorado $72,826 - 7.0%
* Montana $48,722 - 6.0%
* Ohio $59,242 - 3.9%
* Arkansas $45,892 - 3.8%
* Utah $64,130 - 2.6%
* Kansas $62,012 - 2.1%
* Kentucky $49,763 - 1.5%
* Mississippi $39,103 - 1.3%
* Alabama $47,324 - 0.9%
* California $82,975 - 0.4%
* Indiana $58,505 - 0.3%
* Illinois $67,768 - 0.3%
* Virginia $67,786 - 0.3%
* Michigan $54,574 - 0.2%
* South Dakota $61,251 - 0.2%
* Nebraska $72,879 - 0.1%
* Arizona $55,747 - Less than 0.005%
* Idaho $48,309 - Less than 0.005%
* Maryland $68,120 - Less than 0.005%
* Tennessee $59,694 - Less than 0.005%
* New York $90,731 - Less than 0.005%
* Florida $56,571 - Less than 0.005%
* Nevada $60,177 - Less than 0.005%
* Missouri $55,537 - Less than 0.005%

International comparisons (from here):

Oil Revenues as Percentage of GDP (per the World Bank):

Country

Most Recent Year

Most Recent Value

Libya

2019

43.9

Congo, Rep.

2019

43.4

Kuwait

2019

42.1

Iraq

2019

39.6

Angola

2019

25.1

Oman

2019

24.9

Saudi Arabia

2019

24.2

Equatorial Guinea

2019

22.3

Azerbaijan

2019

21.9

Syrian Arab Republic

2007

21.3

Iran, Islamic Rep.

2018

20.4

Gabon

2019

18.8

Chad

2019

17.8

Qatar

2019

16.9

Timor-Leste

2019

16.3

United Arab Emirates

2019

16.2

Algeria

2019

14.4

Kazakhstan

2019

13.8

Brunei Darussalam

2019

11.6

Venezuela, RB

2014

11.4

Turkmenistan

2018

9.6

Russian Federation

2019

9.2

South Sudan

2015

8.5

Nigeria

2019

7.4

Ecuador

2019

6.7

Suriname

2019

5.6

Yemen, Rep.

2019

5.3

Norway

2019

4.8

Ghana

2019

4.7

Egypt, Arab Rep.

2019

4.0

Colombia

2019

3.7

Sudan

2019

3.6

Trinidad and Tobago

2019

3.3

In 2022, about 594,155 thousand (or 594 million) short tons of coal were produced in 21 states. Five states produced a total of about 433,894 thousand (or 434 million) short tons, equal to about 73% of total U.S. coal production. The five largest coal-producing states with production in thousand short tons, and their percentage shares of total U.S. coal production in 2022, were:

* Wyoming—244,730—41.2%

* West Virginia—83,448—14.0%

* Pennsylvania—39,701—6.7%

* Illinois—37,488—6.3%

* Kentucky—28,527—4.8%

From the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

60% of Texans surveyed opposed becoming an independent nation. However, 48% of Texas Republicans surveyed supported it.

From Wikipedia citing Post. Archived from the original on May 31, 2012. Retrieved May 25, 2010; "Daily Kos/Research 2000 Texas Poll". Daily Kos. Archived from the original on April 26, 2009. Retrieved November 16, 2012. Also from Wikipedia:

Secession is most popular in Alaska (36%), Texas (31%), and California (29%).

From here, as of February 2-5, 2024 (a partisan breakdown for Alaska isn't available due to the lack of both 100 Democrats and 100 Republicans in the sample, but given the experience in other states, secession is almost certainly more popular among Alaska Republicans than among Alaska Democrats).

For reference, here is a map of states that pay more in taxes than they receive in federal spending, and vice versa:

Selected Wishes

They aren't prayers, because there is no one to pray to and prayers don't work.

They are just select, somewhat realistic, wishes or dreams, and I have little ability to do much to make them happen or not.  

U.S. Politics

* Harris wins the Presidential election.

* Democrats win the U.S. House and the U.S. Senate.

* Democrats hold CO-8 and win CO-3 and maybe even CO-5.

* The filibuster is abolished in the U.S. Senate.

* The U.S. Supreme Court is expanded to 13-15 seats, allowing Harris to appoint 5-7 new liberal justices.

* D.C. gains statehood status.

* Trump is sentenced to and serves several years in prison on his current charges of conviction, is not released pending appeal, and is ultimately convicted of at least some charges in the three other criminal cases that were brought against him with the classified documents case dismissal reversed on appeal.

* Justice Thomas is punished for corruption.

* Abortion bans fall one by one, state by state.

* The MAGA movement collapses.

U.S. Culture And Daily Life

* Christianity continues to decline in the U.S. in favor of secular worldviews.

* The percentage of people who own guns falls.

* Crime rates continue to fall.

* Police become less likely to use excessive force and less likely to act inappropriate when accountability measures and training are improved.

* Life expectancies and general health improves with new medical advances and better public health measures.

* Southern and country culture, and cultures of honor ebb and wane.

U.S. Economics

* Electric vehicles increase their market share.

* Coal consumption continues to plummet.

* Petroleum consumption plummets.

* Fossil fuel dependent economies like Wyoming, Alaska, and Texas see huge, long term stagnation similar to what was seen in the Rust Belt.

* The U.S. becomes more urbanized.

* Anti-fraud enforcement becomes more successful.

* Lawns and grass landscaping become more rare in the arid West.

* Land use regulations are relaxed.

* Unnecessary occupational regulation is relaxed.

* Immigration remains substantial and undocumented immigrants are largely legalized.

* Copyright laws and other intellectual property laws are weakened.

International Affairs

* Ukraine wins its war with Russia.

* Putin dies or is removed from office.

* The Houthis are defeated in Yemen.

* Hezbollah is defeated in Lebanon.

* Iran's efforts to make war with Israel prove futile.

* North Korea and Russia cease to be able to support their large military forces and greatly reduce them.

* Countries with fossil fuel economies like Russia, Venezuela, and Saudi Arabia see long term stagnation as fossil fuels become less important in their economies, and this undermines their authoritarian leaning regimes.

Converting To Residential Solar Power

So, lured by various trivial goodies (a nice steak dinner and a gift certificate), we got a solar power estimate for our little half-duplex.

A minimal build would provide 87% of our electrical needs, a maximal one would provide 131% (which would leave capacity for a future electric vehicle buy which is probably about six to ten years off when our current car, with only 54,000 miles on it after nine years is replaced and EV battery technology has improved), and the build we would most likely actually buy if we did it now would provide 107%.

It would require 8-10 panels on our roof and detached garage roof combined. The entire process would take about two months with one day of on site installation.

It would pay for itself in about 15 years if we paid for it up front (not including a battery backup for the house), but the economics are significantly less attractive if you finance it (they offered 8.49% APR financing). It would probably also modestly increase our homeowner's insurance due to the increased risk of hail damage claims (the better options are supposed to withstand 14 mm hail). This pricing is after a 30% federal tax credit that is not refundable, but can be carried forward. 

Of course, it is also a hedge against increased electricity service rates (much like a fixed rate mortgage but for electricity), and would mean that our home would be powered with 100% clean, renewable electricity.

A whole house backup power battery (that Xcel could also tap into in some circumstances), with about 24 hours of power stored, would cost another $15,000, but with a roughly 80% subsidy (with the State of Colorado and Xcel energy paying for about 50% in addition to the federal government's 30% credit).

Our experience over the last twenty-four years in Wash Park, however, has been that power outages are infrequent and short, and so a whole house battery probably doesn't justify the expense even with an 80% subsidy. Depending on the electric vehicle we purchased, we could probably even use that for backup power.

We will probably not bite yet, because we have other more urgent home improvements to make (our range-oven, and our evaporative cooler both need to be replaced in the near future, and we'd like to kill the remainder of our lawn). Also, solar panel prices have been plummeting and it isn't clear if we are at the bottom of that trend yet.

Still, if I was building a new house, I'd probably include solar panels and a battery backup for the house. A maximal solar power installation would also be more attractive if we had an electric car and/or if we had a heat pump instead of natural gas heating. 

In a new build, I'd seriously consider a heat pump (and better home insulation), an electric water heater, an indoor electric range, and an electric car charging station, to eliminate the need for a natural gas line entirely (although I'd have, at least, an outdoor gas grill and gas fire pit under a non-air tight gazebo fueled with small propane tanks). 

Honestly, it is impressive how much it is possible to free yourself from fossil fuels and to have zero or near zero net energy consumption at the grass roots level.

Other observations

In the course of gathering information about that, we also figured out our household's total energy consumption expense (electricity, natural gas, and gasoline for our car) which is about $200 a month, compared to a $340 per month average in Colorado and compared to a significantly higher average for the nation as a whole. 

About 14% of our electrical consumption is for seasonal cooling (an evaporative cooler and a ceiling fan). About 82% of our natural gas usage is for home heating in the winter (the balance is for a natural gas cooking range and natural gas water heating).

And, since the our household utility bill files were out, we also examined our water usage. The Colorado average is that about 50% of household water consumption used for landscaping (i.e. watering the lawn). In our case it is about 33%, since we have such a tiny lawn. Our water consumption is also well below average (as expected, now that we are empty nesters with a tiny lawn). Water for the lawn (at the higher summer water rate) costs us about $80 a year, which also has to be mowed, fertilized, weeded, etc.

Urban Density Is Green

 This is the biggest apartment building in the world.

The colossal Regent International apartment building in Hangzhou, China, is is the largest residential building globally and hosts over 20,000 residents! Initially designed as a hotel, this 36-story architectural marvel was transformed into a self-sufficient community, boasting high-end residential apartments, a vast food court, swimming pools, salons, supermarkets, and more. 

Designed by Alicia Loo, the chief architect behind the world's second seven-star hotel, the Singapore Sands Hotel, this S-shaped giant stands 206 meters tall. He has dominated Hangzhou's central business district since its inauguration in 2013. 

Home to a diverse community, from young professionals to influencers and small businesses, the Regent International building spans over 260,000 square meters, reshaping the skyline and redefining urban living in China.

Rent ranges from about $200 a month for an interior windowless apartment to $550 a month for apartments with a balcony. 

I posted this meme on Facebook and a friend of mine left the comment: "To me it is a symbol of the overpopulation that is killing the planet."

I responded (with minor editing for a blog format):

It shouldn't be. 

First of all, global population is nearing a peak and leveling off - the places that are still seeing surging population, especially sub-Saharan African and Afghanistan, have profoundly lower population density. 

China, in particular, has plummeting fertility rates and is far below the replacement level. It is at 1.4 billion people now, but actually lost population in the last year or two and will continue to. China has a fertility rate about half of the replacement rate, so its population will probably fall by close to 400 million people in thirty years and that's at current rates which are still plummeting. 

High density urban environments have the lowest total fertility rate. 

Second, the environmental impact of people in extremely high density environments is much lower per person than if they are spread out - they use less heating/cooling energy (especially in multifamily housing like this since there is less surface area to lose/gain heat per capita due to shared walls, and shared ceiling-floors), produce far less global warming air pollution, use much less transportation energy, build fewer cars per capita, use less water, destroy less land/sensitive animal habits than lower density development, etc. 

I'm sure it has lots of elevators, which are one of the single most energy efficient means of transportation other than bicycles, almost all power used to go up is recovered going down. And, people in densely populated areas can also use more efficient intercity transportation - this part of China has high speed electric rail that is faster and has less environmental impact than intercity transportation by cars or airplanes for short to medium distance intercity trips (admittedly China's electrical grid has way too much dirty coal, but that isn't an urban density related issue). 

Manhattan, for example, has better energy efficiency and overall less waste production and pollution per capita than any other place in the U.S. 

There is also an iron rule in economics that the bigger and more dense a city is the greater its per capita GDP in a very systemic, cross-cultural, cross-time period way. It is a power law relationship, so more dense urban areas are exponentially more productive per capita with no upper limit observed to date. So dense cities also greatly reduce environmental impact per $1 of GDP by both being more productive and less polluting per capita. 

More density means a smaller human footprint on the Earth. Put 20,000 people in suburban tract homes and you'd eat up 3+ square miles of land instead of one city block of maybe 1% of a square mile (6.4 acres), so that's a 99% reduction in habit destruction that can be left for open space, parks, and farming. 

Sure, the 6.4 acres for this high rise produces way more waste, energy consumption, and water consumption than my urban residential neighborhood would with 180 or so people in the same area of land, rather than 20,000 people, and far more than a suburban neighborhood with maybe 20 people in that land area, or an exurban neighborhood with 4 people in a mini-mansion on a single 6.4 acre lot. But per capita, it is much, much better for the planet.

Best Case Scenarios

We spend a lot of time thinking about worst case scenarios. But we shouldn't discount the likelihood of better outcomes. Smart people of goodwill all over the world are trying to achieve them. And, by "best case scenarios" I mean outcomes that have some plausible chance of happening within time frames that people who are adults today can live to see.

China

China joins the rest of the world in backing away from coal as a power source and shifting to renewables like solar, wind, and tidal power, to nuclear power, and to improved energy conservation. Its high speed rail network and growing fleet of electric vehicles suggest that it isn't as indifferent to the environment as we might think.

A new generation of political leaders eases its authoritarianism and censorship, curbs its excessive use of the death penalty, checks China's territorial ambitions. It also cuts off tactic support for North Korea if it isn't conditioned on North Korean demilitarization and reforms.

Russia and the former Soviet Union

Putin dies. The Ukraine War is abandoned on terms not materially more favorable than the 2014 status quo. The Black Sea is demilitarized in a multi-lateral agreement. Maintaining a Soviet scale military becomes unsustainable and is curtailed. Ukraine joins NATO. Most autonomous regions of Russia gain more autonomy or gain independence.  

The declining importance of oil and gas in the global economy weakens autocratic powers in Russia and strengthens urban commercial and technology sectors. A grass roots political movement curbs the power of the oligarchs. Russia stops supporting North Korea, which together with Chinese tough love weakens that regime.

Former Soviet Republics continue to go their own ways with weaker ties to Russia and Russian expeditionary military activity is curtailed.

Sub-Saharan Africa

Belatedly, sub-Saharan Africa follows in the footsteps of Mexico, China, and Southeast Asia and becomes a global center for manufacturing, initially fueled by cheap labor and lax regulations, which leads to economic development, greater affluence, and a demographic transition. Improve rail, roads, and air travel link the continent. The declining importance of oil and gas weakens authoritarian regimes.

Regimes will start to leave the highly unstable coup and civil war prone phase of the transition to democracy and agricultural production in Africa will also improve and rise to global standards. So far, Africa has increased output by increasing the amount of land farmed, rather than by increasing productivity per acre, but this could easily change in the decades to come.

The Islamic World

The declining importance of oil and gas undermines the oil monarchies and authoritarian regimes of the Middle East, North Africa, Brunei, and Aceh. Without oil money to prop it up, fundamentalist Islam fizzles. Guest workers in the Arab world are replaced by domestic workers ending massive unemployment among young people in the region. Power shifts to commercial and technology sector firms forcing a transition to democratic regimes, peacefully or by revolutions.

The Islamic world, now in something of a Victorian era stage of cultural development, progresses, with less restrictive dress codes, less repression of women, less use of corporal punishment, and more commercial activity. Iran remains nominally a theocracy but with a great shift in the balance of power in favor of reformist politicians and away from religious leaders, until finally disestablishment arrives tracking the religious diversity and growing secularization of ordinary Iranians.

Latin America

More sensible regulation of guns and decriminalization of drugs in North America deflates and disarms the cartels of Latin America and opens the door for less corrupt government. Drug prohibition driven waves of homicides end, and a well-educated population comes to the fore. The disaster that is Venezuela eases as the declining importance of oil and gas in the global economy makes top down communist rule infeasible.

Climate change

We won't end the causes of anthropic climate change soon enough to prevent or reverse it. Sea levels will rise faster than expected, but not so fast that coastal urban centers can't be protected with sea walls that become island redoubts to a great extent, especially in places on the brink like Venice, southern Florida, and southern Louisiana.

Ski resorts move north with Alaska and the Yukon taking the center stage once held by Colorado, Utah, and Switzerland.

The great U.S. migration to the Sun Belt reverses itself as the heat in the Southern U.S. becomes intolerable and the winters in the Midwest and Northeast become more tolerable. The southern U.S. shifts in the direction of tropical and deep desert from subtropical.

The Sahara continues to expand before reaching a stabilized peak as fossil fuel use is discontinued worldwide. 

Petroleum and coal become as archaic as merchant and naval sailing fleets, while merchant ships start to universally rely in part upon wind power for propulsion. Natural gas fades more slowly but is eventually replaces by electrical grids fueled by wind, solar, tidal, geothermal, and nuclear energy.

U.S. political divisions

As Baby Boomers die off and younger generations come to great power in society, Christianity withers, anti-LGBT sentiment fades, reproductive roots overcome a decade or so long stumble, anti-science movements return to crackpot status, and the Rehnquist court goes down in history as a second, regrettable, Lochner court. The filibuster is abolished, court packing ends the ultra-conservative Supreme Court, and the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico and other U.S. territories gain their rightful political rights. The U.S. adopts a popular vote for the Presidency either by interstate compact or by constitutional amendment, or by the former leading to the latter. Gradual cultural homogenization, and continued migration to major cities eventually undermines the worst facets of Southern/Country/Western culture.

The global economy's shift away from fossil fuels undermines the worst political factions in places like West Virginia, Wyoming, Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi.

The U.S. will finally get high speed rail in select, regional high traffic corridors, but will probably not develop a national high speed rail network.