Showing posts with label water. Show all posts
Showing posts with label water. Show all posts

12 August 2024

Converting To Residential Solar Power

So, lured by various trivial goodies (a nice steak dinner and a gift certificate), we got a solar power estimate for our little half-duplex.

A minimal build would provide 87% of our electrical needs, a maximal one would provide 131% (which would leave capacity for a future electric vehicle buy which is probably about six to ten years off when our current car, with only 54,000 miles on it after nine years is replaced and EV battery technology has improved), and the build we would most likely actually buy if we did it now would provide 107%.

It would require 8-10 panels on our roof and detached garage roof combined. The entire process would take about two months with one day of on site installation.

It would pay for itself in about 15 years if we paid for it up front (not including a battery backup for the house), but the economics are significantly less attractive if you finance it (they offered 8.49% APR financing). It would probably also modestly increase our homeowner's insurance due to the increased risk of hail damage claims (the better options are supposed to withstand 14 mm hail). This pricing is after a 30% federal tax credit that is not refundable, but can be carried forward. 

Of course, it is also a hedge against increased electricity service rates (much like a fixed rate mortgage but for electricity), and would mean that our home would be powered with 100% clean, renewable electricity.

A whole house backup power battery (that Xcel could also tap into in some circumstances), with about 24 hours of power stored, would cost another $15,000, but with a roughly 80% subsidy (with the State of Colorado and Xcel energy paying for about 50% in addition to the federal government's 30% credit).

Our experience over the last twenty-four years in Wash Park, however, has been that power outages are infrequent and short, and so a whole house battery probably doesn't justify the expense even with an 80% subsidy. Depending on the electric vehicle we purchased, we could probably even use that for backup power.

We will probably not bite yet, because we have other more urgent home improvements to make (our range-oven, and our evaporative cooler both need to be replaced in the near future, and we'd like to kill the remainder of our lawn). Also, solar panel prices have been plummeting and it isn't clear if we are at the bottom of that trend yet.

Still, if I was building a new house, I'd probably include solar panels and a battery backup for the house. A maximal solar power installation would also be more attractive if we had an electric car and/or if we had a heat pump instead of natural gas heating. 

In a new build, I'd seriously consider a heat pump (and better home insulation), an electric water heater, an indoor electric range, and an electric car charging station, to eliminate the need for a natural gas line entirely (although I'd have, at least, an outdoor gas grill and gas fire pit under a non-air tight gazebo fueled with small propane tanks). 

Honestly, it is impressive how much it is possible to free yourself from fossil fuels and to have zero or near zero net energy consumption at the grass roots level.

Other observations

In the course of gathering information about that, we also figured out our household's total energy consumption expense (electricity, natural gas, and gasoline for our car) which is about $200 a month, compared to a $340 per month average in Colorado and compared to a significantly higher average for the nation as a whole. 

About 14% of our electrical consumption is for seasonal cooling (an evaporative cooler and a ceiling fan). About 82% of our natural gas usage is for home heating in the winter (the balance is for a natural gas cooking range and natural gas water heating).

And, since the our household utility bill files were out, we also examined our water usage. The Colorado average is that about 50% of household water consumption used for landscaping (i.e. watering the lawn). In our case it is about 33%, since we have such a tiny lawn. Our water consumption is also well below average (as expected, now that we are empty nesters with a tiny lawn). Water for the lawn (at the higher summer water rate) costs us about $80 a year, which also has to be mowed, fertilized, weeded, etc.

14 April 2024

Sunday Musings

 * The United States is deeply politically and culturally divided, and it has had a few political dynasties. But, ultimately, the U.S. has at least largely resisted the hereditary principle and clan politics. We have oligarchies of big corporations, but those big successful corporations, while not entirely free of it, are not hotbeds of nepotism either. Father to son CEO succession happens, but it is rare, and tends to happen second tier businesses not in big national S&P 500 companies.

* We are approaching a point where it may make sense to declare war on both Iran and its proxies like Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and Iranian militias in Syria and Iraq. The Houthis have directed piracy and missiles at commercial ships in the Red Sea and their insurgency has led to one of the worst famines in the world in Southern Yemen which has historically been the bread belt of Arabia. (It is worth nothing that both sides of the civil war in Yemen are united in their hate for the United States.) Hamas carried out the October 7 attack and has continued a suicidal response by Gazans to Israeli retaliation. Hezbollah in Lebanon has been lobbing artillery and missiles as Israel for decades. Iranian missiles recently killed a detachment of U.S. troops in Jordan. Iran has fired several hundred missiles at Israel in the last few days, has been in multiple skirmishes with U.S. Navy forces in the Persian Gulf, and has terrorized commercial traffic in the Persian Gulf.

* The U.S., admittedly, plays an important part in Iran's ascendancy. U.S. support for the Shah in Iran played an important rule in the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran that put the current regime in place. Sanctions the U.S. pushed for caused Iran to develop its own domestic military production (something similar happened as a result of sanctions in Israel, in South Africa, and in Turkey), and also pushed Iran into Russia and North Korea's circle of allies. U.S. military intervention in Iraq and Afghanistan defanged Iran's neighbors who were among its greatest military adversaries. Dislodging the neo-Communist dictatorship in Iraq opened the door to Iranian backed Shiite party political gains there. Encouraging Arab Spring revolutions in Syria contributed to the Syrian Civil War that still isn't over and has created a vacuum for Iranian backed militias there.

* Golf courses are a waste of water in the arid west:


About 1% of total Colorado water consumption goes toward golf courses (this is about 5% of non-agricultural water use):

In its 2021 economic and environmental impact report, the Colorado Golf Coalition, a collection of state organizations, reported that the industry’s water consumption represents less than 1% of the state’s 2018 total — 41,213 acre-feet, compared with 4.7 million acre-feet for agriculture, the largest consumer.

It also touts the positive environmental impact of its more than 33,000 acres of greenspace statewide, of which a little more than 16,000 acres constitute irrigated turfgrass, species like bluegrass that can endure high traffic and low mowing heights ideal for golf. That’s more than 17% less irrigated acreage than in 2002.

By region, the courses in the Denver metropolitan area account for more than 43% of the irrigated acreage. Since the 2002 measurements, Colorado courses have increased use of reclaimed water and significantly reduced use of municipal sources.

Still, golf courses have joined lawns as targets for restrictions in places like Aurora, where Mayor Mike Coffman invoked the “new reality” of water scarcity in Colorado in support of a proposed ban on new courses — unless they employ the buffalo and blue grama long a staple on the Eastern Plains — as the city looks at limiting grass yards, medians and decorative office park areas.

In fairness, golf courses in the arid west have made very significant efforts to reduce their water consumption; far more significant efforts than agricultural users have.

* Agriculture and evaporation consume all but 18% of water in the Colorado River basin (and that 18% includes a significant portion for lawns and golf courses). About 70% of agricultural water is used for cattle feed, mostly alfalfa and to a lesser extent hay, according to a Denver Post analysis:



* Despite its immense water use, agriculture is almost economically irrelevant in Colorado.

* According to Denver Water, household water used breaks down as follows:

54% landscaping
13% toilets
11% laundry
10% showers and baths
6% faucets
5% leaks
1% dishwashers

* The Southwest is, however, a naturally ideal place for solar energy (and it doesn't hurt that a lot of the electricity demand there is for air conditioning which coincides with solar energy availability):

* This week I learned that there are both role playing games and video games in which the protagonist that you play is a bird.

* It turns out that a certain part of Poland is the heartland of ketchup production (a widely used product there):


The Polish Ketchup Belt is a narrow lane between the 51.5N and 52.5N parallels where almost all ketchup production in Poland is concentrated. (Source)

* Ukraine has made strikes deep into Russian territory:

It is 755 kilometers from Ukraine to Moscow and there are numerous Russian refineries and oil storage sites to attack along the way. Ukraine has been attacking those oil facilities and . . . the damage to oil facilities and other targets has been so great that Russia has had to ration how much fuel civilian and military users can get. It is estimated that the Ukrainian attacks destroyed twelve percent of Russia’s oil refining capability.

* Bible reading has recently fallen dramatically in the U.S.:


 * Coal use is up globally, despite falling in the U.S., the U.K., and a number of European countries, due predominantly to new coal fired power plants in Asia:


Greece's failure to tap into its abundant wind power capacity and its near ideal geography for electric cars, baffles me. The same can be said for Hawaii.

* Turkish people drink a lot of tea.


* According to data cited the Economist magazine, South Korea has an intense "glass-ceiling" for women in the workplace, which surprises me. I had thought that the situation for South Korean women who didn't marry or had kids was pretty good.


* Early 19th century grave robbing was driven by incentives you wouldn't expect:

At the 1815 Battle of Waterloo, Napoleon Bonaparte’s final battle, more than 10,000 men and as many horses were killed in a single day. Yet today, archaeologists often struggle to find physical evidence of the dead from that bloody time period. Plowing and construction are usually the culprits behind missing historical remains, but they can’t explain the loss here. How did so many bones up and vanish?

In a new book, an international team of historians and archaeologists argues the bones were depleted by industrial-scale grave robbing. The introduction of phosphates for fertilizer and bone char as an ingredient in beet sugar processing at the beginning of the 19th century transformed bones into a hot commodity. Skyrocketing prices prompted raids on mass graves across Europe—and beyond.

* In the Netherlands, the interest rate on a particular mortgage fall over time to reflect the reduced risk of loss to lenders as the debt to equity ratio falls as principal is paid off and real estate appreciates in value. But, this also disincentivizes selling one home to move to another, or refinancing.

* Average hourly wages vary greatly across Europe:

* In Ray Bradbury's short story "All Summer In A Day": "The children let Margot out of the locked closet at the end of "All Summer in a Day." They had locked her inside while the teacher was elsewhere, making Margot miss the sun, which only comes out every seven years." It was a story the affected me greatly as a child and still does.

* Skunks are an American thing. The skunk family (Mephitidae) consists of 13 species, and almost all are restricted to the Western Hemisphere, reaching from Southern Canada to the Strait of Magellan in South America. The exception is the Stink Badger which can be found in Indonesia.

* Gasoline prices, adjusted for inflation, are similar or lower now than they were in 2006. U.S. mortgage interest rates are middling by historical standards and historically low rate until recently may have helped drive up real estate prices:


* High rise office buildings are plummeting in value.

* There were once more than 9,000 Blockbuster video stores. There is now one, in Bend, Oregon.

* What's better with JalapeƱos?

1. Pizza.
2. Beer.
3. Lemonaide.

* Humans are basically fish in flesh suits and our blood is a decent approximation of sea water. An image gets across the concept:


*  There ought to be a law disqualifying judges from deciding cases involving the person who appointed them as a party (in the appointing person's personal, as opposed to their official, capacity).

* Trump does not have legitimate defenses in the classified documents criminal case against him, despite the fact that a judge he appointed seemed to be "confused" about this point.

19 May 2023

What Has Driven Urban Density Changes In The U.S. Over The Last 70 Years?

Living in the West, we've long known that mountains and water supplies impact density, sometimes discouraging sprawl.
Housing unit densities are examined in 56 large urban areas in the United States defined in a consistent manner from 1950 to 2020. 
The mean density declined slightly over this period but this masks tremendous variation across the urban areas. Some of the most dense urban areas at the start experienced large drops, but substantial numbers of areas had increases in density, some large. 
Densities across regions changed dramatically, with mean densities for urban areas in the West rising from only slightly above the South to the highest by 2020, well above the Northeast and the Midwest which were highest in 1950
Density and density change are related to the size of the urban area (number of housing units), and change is also related to change in size and (negatively) to density at the start. The effect of potential barriers to expansion on density is investigated, with strong, significant effects of water and mountains on urban area densities.

From the body text:
The list of the urban areas with the highest densities in 2020 is likely to be more of a surprise to many. 
New York remains on the list but in second place, edged out by Las Vegas, both with densities below 2,000 housing units per square mile, below all of the top 6 in 1950. 
San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose retains its position in third place but is followed by Los Angeles and Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach with nearly identical densities, all ranging from 1,834 to 1,859 units per square mile. 
San Diego is the sixth densest urban area with a density about 200 lower. 
New York and San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose were the only areas among the most dense in both years. New York accomplished this in spite of a huge decline by starting with by far the highest density in 1950. San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose experienced a modest drop in density over the period but maintained its position given the overall lower densities in 2020.

08 March 2023

If Hydrogen The Way To Go? Probably Not.

One possible path for our energy future would be to make wider use of hydrogen. Is hydrogen the way to go?

Probably not.

There is lots to like about about hydrogen based energy, which is one of the best options for chemical energy storage. Hydrogen fuel cells have the highest energy density of any chemical way to store energy: 2.6 times as much as natural gas and 3 times as much as gasoline. Fuel cells also emit nothing other than water vapor when used. 

But issues related to the supply and distribution of hydrogen fuel make it problematic.

Hydrogen Fuel Supply Issues

But the main way commercial hydrogen is produced now is to chemically strip it from fossil fuel hydrocarbons like natural gas, which is inefficient and shares a lot of the problems involved in using fossil fuels in the first place:
Synthesis gas—a mixture of hydrogen, carbon monoxide, and a small amount of carbon dioxide—is created by reacting natural gas with high-temperature steam. The carbon monoxide is reacted with water to produce additional hydrogen. This method is the cheapest, most efficient, and most common. Natural gas reforming using steam accounts for the majority of hydrogen produced in the United States annually.

A synthesis gas can also be created by reacting coal or biomass with high-temperature steam and oxygen in a pressurized gasifier. This converts the coal or biomass into gaseous components—a process called gasification. The resulting synthesis gas contains hydrogen and carbon monoxide, which is reacted with steam to separate the hydrogen. . . .  
Today, almost all the hydrogen produced in the United States is used for refining petroleum, treating metals, producing fertilizer, and processing foods. The primary challenge for hydrogen production is reducing the cost of production technologies to make the resulting hydrogen cost competitive with conventional transportation fuels.
Scientists are making progress in finding more efficient ways to produce hydrogen from the electrolysis of water with advanced catalysts to the reaction and other tricks, although adding a major new user to our limited fresh water supply has its own problems.  But we aren't there yet. 

Hydrogen Fuel Distribution Issues

Of course, even once we get good systems in place to produce usable hydrogen, we have to build a refueling network from scratch that competes in the alt-fuel market with electrical chargers (powered with existing national electrical grids) in a national electrical vehicle charging system, that is already well on its way to being built out.  According to an article from December 22, 2022 in Automotive World magazine:
This year marks an important anniversary in electric vehicle (EV) technology: the tenth anniversary of the first supercharger station opened by Tesla in Los Angeles in September 2012. Although, a decade has passed, the availability of quick and convenient charging is still cause for concern for many prospective customers. According to the US Department of Energy’s Alternative Fuels Data Center, there are currently 46,000 public EV charging stations in the US, with more than 13,000 of them in California. However, thousands more are needed to respond to the increase in EV demand and the industry’s shift away from internal combustion engine (ICE) cars. . . . 

The current charging infrastructure is not nearly in the state it needs to be to support the projections of 50% of all cars being EVs in the next ten years, but . . . charging station infrastructure is a work-in-progress across the globe. . . .

In Europe, there are currently about 400,000 fast charging stations compared to 47,000 in the US. The EU has committed to increasing that number to one million by 2025. In the US, the government has proposed federal minimum standards of at least four public charging ports every 50 miles along a highway with the goal of 500,000 charging stations across the country by 2030. . . . 

Despite the barriers of charging and range anxiety . . . EVs have gained massive momentum in recent years: “In 2019 EVs and hybrid vehicles were just 6% of vehicles produced (five million), but production in 2022 has tripled and is now at 18% of global passenger car production, forecasted to rise to 25% in 2023. We expect to see more than 20 million EVs produced in 2023.

Hydrogen vehicle production is stuck in a Catch-22. Hydrogen refueling networks respond to demand from customers who have hydrogen fueled vehicles, but a lack of a refueling network discourages people from buying hydrogen vehicles. Yet, almost all of the current alt-fuel vehicle momentum in R&D, charging station networks, and legislation to support it has been devoted to electric vehicles. It would be very difficult to turn this momentum around even if one can make a technological case that hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are better than electric vehicles.

One of the main reasons the internal combustion engine initially surged to market dominance over electric cars which were neck and neck with each other in the nineteen teens was that at the time only big cities had electrical power grids which gasoline powered cars didn't need. This made gasoline powered cars more attractive to consumers everywhere but big cities and people who needed to engage in intercity traffic. So gasoline powered cars had an almost 100% market share of the "horseless carriage" market, and as a result, these engines had received years of technological refinement, while electric vehicle battery technology was neglected, by the time that small towns finally had electrical grids which could have been used to refuel electric cars.

Even if hydrogen for hydrogen fuel cells can be produced at a competitive price and they are otherwise solid on the technological merits, overcoming the nation's lack of a hydrogen refueling network could be fatal to its widespread adoption as an energy source for vehicles. 

Nuclear Fusion Power Using Hydrogen

Of course, the other way to use hydrogen to produce energy is in nuclear fusion power plants. 

The heavy hydrogen (i.e. deuterium and tritium) fuel supply issues for nuclear fusion plants would be a trivial part of the cost of nuclear fusion power. This is so even though it costs much more to produce heavy hydrogen than ordinary hydrogen, because you first have to separate out heavy water from ordinary water and then you have to used electrolysis to extract the heavy hydrogen from the heavy water.

The heavy hydrogen fuel costs are trivial because you need about four million times less hydrogen to produce the same amount of energy from a kilogram of hydrogen in a hydrogen fuel cell, when you are using the hydrogen in nuclear fuel, despite the fact that no other chemical reaction based energy source has as much energy density as hydrogen fuel cells. 

Nuclear fusion generates 580,000,000 Mj of energy from a kilogram of hydrogen. In contrast, hydrogen fuel cell produces 142 Mj/kg. Natural gas (i.e. basically methane) produces 54 Mj/kg and gasoline produces 46 Mj/kg. 

Realistically, we are at least five or ten years out from being able to produce net energy at a commercial scale with sustained nuclear fusion plants. 

More importantly, nuclear fusion only makes sense to produce on a commercial scale if it is similar in price per Mj to the alternatives, even with significant subsidies to recognize the environmental benefits of nuclear fusion over anything but renewable energy 

We are probably at least twenty years out or more from being able to commercially produce nuclear fusion power at a price that is competitive with the alternatives like nuclear fission from uranium and plutonium, thorium decay, natural gas, syngas made from coal, and non-chemical fuel renewables like wind, solar, hydropower, tidal power, and geothermal. 

Previous posts at this blog supporting this conclusion and detailing the progress being made with nuclear fusion power technology can be found in posts from January 3, 2022 (China sets a new record in sustaining nuclear fusion reactions), October 26, 2021 (breakthroughs in turning heat into energy more efficient, which incidentally have continued to be made since then), and October 8, 2021 (reviewing the economic and technological barriers to commercial scale nuclear fusion power plants). 

The bottom line from those posts is that a nuclear fusion process needs to generate 18 times as much energy as is injected into it, not just net positive energy generation, to be viable commercially due to energy losses in getting the energy produced to the end user. But, improved efficiency in turning heat into electricity with new technologies could ease that requirement somewhat.

Also, you need to bring the cost of building a 1000 megawatt nuclear fusion power plant down to about $18.6 billion or less to make nuclear fusion a viable commercial power source. The current estimate of the likely cost of building a plant like that if it could be done, however, is about $3 billion, so this is less of a constraint than the technological barriers to nuclear fusion based power generation.

02 June 2022

Utility Ownership In Flordia

Public ownership of the means of production exists on a continuum, and often, it isn't a remarkable or bad thing.
[I]n Florida, 77% of utilities are owned by the private sector, while only 23% are owned by the public (including federal and local). That said, the 23% that are owned by the public sector service 92% of the population.

31 December 2021

The Marshall Fire


The Marshall Fire around Superior and Louisville in Boulder County, Colorado has destroyed more than 580 homes (UPDATE: closer to 1000) already, more than any other fire in Colorado history, despite its relatively moderate 1600 acre scope so far (UPDATE: 6000 acres). Probably 1500 or more people in the metro area are now newly homeless.

The seven worst by the measure of homes destroyed have happened since 2010, and all of the top ten have occurred since 2002. As the article linked above explains:

Officials say the Marshall fire, burning in Boulder County, has burned more than 500 homes, which would make it the most destructive fire in Colorado in terms of the number of homes destroyed.

1. Black Forest fire, Colorado Springs • 2013 — 489 homes
2. Waldo Canyon fire, Colorado Springs • 2012 — 347 homes
3. East Troublesome fire, Grand County • 2020 — 300+ homes
4. High Park fire, Larimer County • 2012 — 259 homes
5. Cameron Peak fire, Walden • 2020 — 224 homes
6. Fourmile Canyon fire, Boulder County • 2010 — 169 homes
7. Spring Creek fire, Costilla and Huerfano counties • 2018 — 141 homes
8. Hayman fire, Lake George • 2002 — 133 homes
9. Iron Mountain fire, CaƱon City • 2002 — 106 homes
10. Missionary Ridge fire, Durango • 2002 — 56 homes

Looking at various accounts, so far only 6-9 injuries have resulted from the Marshall Fire, but more than 30,000 people have been forced to evacuate, including at least one or two hospitals. (The high winds caused a building to collapse elsewhere in the metro area injuring six more people.)

This hits close to home. It is about twenty miles away from my home and we are in no danger. But, for example, I have 130 Facebook friends in or near the affected area. At least one of them has lost her home entirely.

The Marshall Fire was still burning largely uncontrolled as of the last news reports of this evening. Snow is in the forecast starting at 11 a.m. today (December 31), and most of New Year's Day. Ebbing winds, snow, and bitter cold conditions forecast for New Year's Day should allow the mostly uncontrolled so far fire to be contained.

Usually, fire season is in hot mid-summer in Colorado. But this wild fire is burning bright on the last two days of December. Hurricane force winds started the originally grass based fire when power lines were brought down. The winds also prevented fire fighters from using aircraft to suppress the fires.

This year had significantly below normal rainfall (not quite 20% below normal), and last year was worse (close to 40% below normal). The last half of the year has been particularly dry. The National Weather Service notes in a tweet that:

One of the many factors that lead to the devastating wildfire today is the recent record dryness. For all periods from Jul 1st to Dec 29th (essentially the second half of the year), Denver has been the driest on record by over an inch. Snowfall is at record low levels, too.

Historical contemporaneously recorded weather records for Denver go back to 1872. We've had just 1.08 inches of precipitation from July 1, 2021 to December 29, 2021 (and no precipitation yesterday either).  

For the most part, rainfall at lower elevations isn't all that important. Most of our critical water supplies come from the mountain snowpack in the South Platte River watershed. 

But dry weather in the foothills and on the plains does create a tinder dry environment prone to extreme wildfires like this one.

More than twenty of Colorado's worst wildfires in the historical record (by any measure) have been recent. There is no reasonable doubt at this point that this record streak of extreme wildfires is mostly driven by global climate change. This is the worst it has been for more than a thousand years in this region, and maybe further back than that. Past bouts of aridity of this scale have destroyed whole civilizations in the historical and prehistoric record repeatedly.

21 April 2020

Golf

Golf courses will reopen in Denver tomorrow. As far as coronavirus risk goes, done in a responsible way, it can be pretty low risk. 

My inlaws are about as good as you get as amateur golfers. My daughter was captain of the golf team and even got a golf scholarship to college.

This said, I don't get the value of the sport. Personally, I would not be troubled in the least if every single golf course in the state were bulldozed and converted to open space, campgrounds, parks, and even housing. 

Golf courses are water hogs in the arid west.

Golf is also the physical personification of inequality. They take large tracts of land for the benefit of a few. It takes an immense amounts of leisure time to play eighteen holes, or even nine, which few people have to spare. And, it isn't a cheap sport in terms of money. The equipment isn't super cheap. The fee to play on a public course isn't trivial. And many people join country clubs with membership dues of upwards of $10,000 a year and selective admissions just to play.

As I understand it, the public golf courses in Denver pay for themselves, but that ignores the property tax free opportunity costs associated with the idle land. I don't know if country clubs, which are generally organized as non-profits, pay property taxes on their golf courses or not.

I suppose it is a "lifetime" sport that one can engage in for your whole life, not that there aren't other alternatives. I'm sure that my class biases and values are showing. But, in my humble opinion, a world without golf would be a better world. 

15 July 2019

Denver Is Usually Nearly A Desert; Grand Junction Is In A Desert

Most sources define a desert as a place with an average of 10 inches of precipitation (250 mm) per year, although I've seen 11 inches and 12 inches (in print) also used as definitions.

Denver get an average of 14.30 inches of precipitation per year (although some measurements suggest that the average is a little higher), which is 4.3 inches more than a desert. Grand Junction, where I lived from 1996 to 1999, is a bona fide desert with an average of just 9.4 inches of precipitation per year (probably an overstatement as this average does not appear to include some recent very dry years).

It is also useful, however, to think about the range of precipitation that an area experiences, as the high and the low over a long period of time (the low was 7.48 inches and the high was 20.95 inches since I've lived in Denver) is important for purposes like planning things like landscaping choices, construction specifications, and urban planning considerations like storm sewer capacities. The range is also quite relevant in valuing water rights.

This year in Denver, however, will not be a dry one. We are already at 10.59 inches of precipitation though July 14, 2019, about 2.25 inches above the year to date norm.

Denver has had three years that are below the desert threshold since I've moved here, and five more within under twelve inches of precipitation.

2018: 8.48 
2017: 11.69
2016: 11.59
2015: 18.22
2014: 18.77
2013: 16.60
2012: 10.11
2011: 17.27
2010: 12.86
2009: 18.12
2008: 10.23
2007: 14.00
2006: 8.64
2005: 12.80
2004: 14.67
2003: 13.92
2002: 7.48
2001: 16.55
2000: 14.55
1999: 20.95
1998: 15.93
1997: 19.59
1996: 10.25
1995: 18.27

To some extent, precipitation in Denver is really tri-modal with modes corresponding roughly to years marked by El NiƱo and La NiƱa events, and year with neither, respectively, although temperature tracks El NiƱo and La NiƱa events more closely than precipitation does.

Since the winter of 1995-1996, eight winters have been El NiƱo winters (when the central to easter tropical pacific is warmer): 2015-2016 and 1997-1998 (strong), 2009-2010 (moderate), 2002-2003, 2006-2007, 2004-2005, 2014-2015, 2018-2019 (weak).

Seven winters have been La NiƱa winters (when the central to eastern tropical pacific is cooler): 2007-2008 (strong), 2010-2011, 1995-1996 (moderate), 2005-2006, 2008-2009, 2011-2012, 2018-2019 (weak).

And nine winters have been neither El NiƱo nor La NiƱa winters (when temperatures in the central to eastern tropical pacific are normal): 1996-1997, 1998-1999, 1999-2000, 2001-2002, 2003-2004, 2009-2010, 2012-2013, 2013-2014, 2016-2017.

03 October 2017

The Platte River Basin

Denver is a part of the Platte River basin that in turn feeds into the Mississippi River basin (other parts of Colorado are sources for many of the other major U.S. river basins). The Platte River basin is part of the Louisiana Territory as the French had claimed the entire Mississippi River basin as their own. The territory of Colorado that is west of the Continental Divide and much of Southern Colorado, in contrast, was not part of the Louisiana territory. Much of that territory was part of "Old Mexico".

Here is a nice map of that river basin via a Facebook post by John Orr whose blog is Coyote Gulch.


31 May 2016

Trump Gaslights California

FRESNO, Calif. — Presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump told California voters Friday that he can solve their water crisis, declaring, “There is no drought.”

California is, in fact, in midst of a drought. Last year capped the state’s driest four-year period in its history, with record low rainfall and snow.
From here.

Any old anti-science conservative can deny climate change, or at least deny that people caused climate change.  It takes somebody like Trump to up the ante and deny the existence of an obvious, currently in progress drought.

Trump blamed all of California's water crisis on an endangered species protection measure that uses some of California's water.  But, the fact that California does have some bad water practices doesn't change the fundamental fact that the state is in a drought due to record low precipitation that makes bad water practices more of a problem.

27 July 2011

Property Rights In Water Working In Colorado

Colorado Public Radio, today, has an interesting story on the phenomena of "buy and dry" in the state, in which farmers sell their water rights (often for millions of dollars from farms that are marginally productive agriculturally and have no clear successors to farm them) to municipal water systems that need to water to support expanding urban populations.

The practice has virtually ended farming in some rural counties. Initially, there was a concern that simply cutting off water without considering the environmental impact of doing so would lead to swaths of infertile dirts that were a blight on the state and cause rapid economic collapse without warning in rural communities. More recent legislation in Colorado has mandated that the buyers of water rights in buy and dry transactions must establish and fund a thirty year mitigation plan that returns the previously farmed land to a state where it is a sustainable prairie and provides payments in lieu of taxes to the impacted governmental units to reflect the revenue losses that they experience as a result of the lost agricultural economic activity.

On balance, it is an example of property rights, accompanied by reasonable government regulation, protecting the legitimate interests of all involved while putting our arid state's scarce water resources to their highest and best uses.

14 October 2010

Water Bills To Rise

Denver Water warned Wednesday that customer rates may rise by an average of 31.2 percent over the next three years. . . .

During a meeting with the Denver City Council . . . council members . . . said their constituents will struggle to afford the higher rate. They predicted brown lawns would proliferate throughout the city as customers pared back on using water.

"The neighborhoods are going downhill because of the nature of this," Councilwoman Jeanne Faatz said. "You are having spotty areas. People cannot afford what you are asking of them." Faatz said now might be the time for the public to push for Denver Water to be run by an elected board. The utility, which has 1.3 million customers, currently is run by a five-member board appointed by the mayor of Denver. Faatz said a constituent recently complained about a $400 monthly water bill. . . .

Jim Lochhead, chief executive of Denver Water, said the 2011 increase would raise the water bill for the average residential user in Denver by about $41 for the year and $32 annually for the typical suburban resident. . . [T]he increase will take a greater toll on government agencies, industrial firms or those with large lawns that are heavy water users.

"This is what we need to do to for the continued sustainability and reliability of the system," Lochhead said. He stressed that the rate increase doesn't just pay operating costs but also will go toward debt service for maintenance and upgrades.. . . [T]he proposed 2011 rate hike of 10.4 percent, which will be voted on by the utility's board Nov. 17. The utility cut spending by $10.5 million from original projections for 2011 and now projects operating costs next year of $198.8 million, debt service costs of $41.9 million, inflationary costs of $2.57 million and capital expenses of $99 million.


From here.

Personally, I have very little sympathy for the position that Councilwoman Faatz is taking.

Denver Water is a city owned utility. Denver residents are getting their water at cost. Denver Water aggressively fights to make us a top dog in the effort to gain our share of the state's scarce water supply, and they are so good at their job that it can sell excess water to suburbanites at a rates higher than what Denver resident pay. If Denver Water does make a profit due to prudent management, that just reduces our rates the next year.

Denver Water has worked hard to keep long term costs down, for example, by automating the water meter reading process and fixing leaks in the system, and the quality of our drinking water is better than almost any other city of our size in the nation.

An elected board would certainly do nothing to make Denver Water more efficient. There is no sustainable way to charge less than the actual cost of providing a service.

Indeed, it would make it less accountable, because the Mayor is in a better position to determine whether candidates are qualified and has a political interest in a Board that does its job well, while voters are in a poor position to evaluate competence. And, on the Denver Water board the questions aren't partisan or political. It need to keep prices low, keep water flowing, and keep water quality high. Republicans, Democrats and unaffiliated voters alike agree on those goals, although Libertarians may have an allergic reaction to the notion that a public agency can actually do a job as well or better than the private sector would.

The hard reality is that the water supply in Colorado is going to shink over time as global warming makes an already arid state more dry. Thirty years from now, on average, the snowpacks will be smaller, and the rain will fall less. We need to give people appropriate incentives to conserve.

Honestly, the problem is as much that water is too cheap, given its scarcity. There isn't enough of an incentive to conserve, although Denver Water's recent move to monthly billing, to allow customers to keep better track of their water useage, and to basing a larger share of water bills on how much you use, rather than simply being a customer, are good choices.

Government agencies, golf courses, industrial users and people with large lawns should be getting squeezed to find ways to use less water. The vision of Denver neighborhoods full of houses with lush blue grass lawns is not a sustainable future for our city. We live in the arid West, not Soctland or Georgia or Seattle, and we need to live accordingly.

If Councilwoman Faatz has a constituent who is getting a $400 a month water bill that isn't simply a billing mistake (and if it is I billing mistake, a wholeheartedly join her in her concern), then that constituent needs to shape up and use less water, or suck up and realize that flagrant excess has its price.

Every increase in prices is a little economic squeeze, admittedly. But, an increase of $3.42 a month for an average Denver household, some of which can be mitigated with reduced water useage for those who are thrifty, is not going to be the straw that breaks the camel's back even during a recession.

There is a price squeeze going on in this state. College tuition has tripled in about a decade. Health insurance premiums have consistently grown at double digit rates. Prescription drug prices have soared. People have added new expenses like cell phone bills, increased monthly television charges and broadband service to their budgets that haven't been offset by declines in the cost of some of the particular services offered. The baseline price of gasoline has gotten a lot higher than it used to be. Housing hasn't become a lot more affordable in Colorado to the extent that it has in other states. We have had periodic spikes in natural gas prices that have forced families to make much harder choices between eating and staying warm in their own homes.

But, in Denver, our water bills have remained, by comparison, very reasonable. This is not the right fight to be waging.

07 May 2010

Inland Seas and Ancient Climate



World drainage basins; inland basins shown in black.

The extent to which inland seas like Lake Chad and the Caspian Sea have grown and shrunk in fairly recent history and pre-history is quite remarkable.

At its largest, around 4000 BC, [Lake Chad] is estimated to have covered an area of 400,000 km², (approx. 154,000 sq miles). Lake sediments appear to indicate dry periods, when the lake nearly dried up, around 8500 BC, 5500 BC, 2000 BC, and 100 BC." . . . Lake Chad has shrunk considerably since the 1960s when it had an area of more than 26,000 km², making its surface the fourth largest in Africa. . . . In 1983, Lake Chad was reported to have covered 10,000 km²-25,000 km² (3,861 mi²-9652 mi²) . . . By 2000 its extent had fallen to less than 1,500 km².


Variations in the climate of the Sahara coincide with the variations in the size of Lake Chad to a great extent, and are also pivotal to key events in human pre-history. For example, the climate of the Sahara helps explain the distinct waves of hominin migration out of Africa (Homo erectus, Neanderthal, modern humans). Domesticated African Sahel crops(which is the likely source of the expansion of the Niger-Congo languages and the population genetics of West Africa) appeared around 4000 BC, at the wettest point in the recent history of the Sahara.

The Lake Chad basin is also home to two of the most notable genetic outlier populations in Africa: the Chadic language speakers of North Cameroon, who have a strong element of a Y-DNA haplotype (R1b) most similar to one found mostly in the North Atlantic and Northern Mediterranean, and Fulani language speakers of North Cameroon, who share a Y-DNA haplotype (T) with the Upper Nile basin, Somolia, the Balkans and a swath of Dravidian language speakers in Central and Eastern India. Lake Chad's fluctuations in extent are also believed to be central to the history of the Nilo-Saharan languages.

The Caspian Sea also has fairly little known but important climatalogical history that is important to recent human pre-history. The Caspian was connected to the Aral and Black Seas by water for some part of the period after the Last Glacial Maximum, and there is evidence that its highest and lowest surface levels have varied by 100 meters in relatively recent times. Rock art from around 4000 B.C. in the Caspian Sea depicts boats similar to those found in Egypt at around the same time. There is also evidence of giant stone monument construction there. There also appear to be connections between Caucusian geographical place names and names found in the Egyptian Book of the Dead. Dating Caspian sea archeology, however, is complicated by the presence of calicium carbonate at high levels in this inland sea that may muddle carbon dating based on dry land measures.

A third endorheic basin (i.e. drainage system that does not lead to an ocean), the Tarim Basin, home to one of the last "discovered" Indo-European languages and one of the Easternmost historic population in North Asia with its genetic roots in the West rather than the East, also offers potentially paradigm changing insights about pre-history. It too has mysteries, such as the question of why people in the middle of what is now a desert would be barried in boats.

The Caspian Sea and Tarim Basins are believed by many linguists to be the homelands of the North Caucusian, Indo-European, Uralic, and Altaic languages, and the adjacent Tibetan Plateau may also be the homeland of the Sino-Tibetan languages including the various dialects of Chinese.

All three of these areas have been relatively little studied by geologists, ancient climatologists and archeologists until recently, and are even less known by specialists in the West. The communist block was largely off limits to Western researchers until the end of the Cold War, and Lake Chad, with its relatively harsh modern landscape was not an obvious place to look for ancient history.

Yet, the ancient climates of these areas may have had influences on our ancient history comparable to that of the Bering Land Bridge, which allowed the first hominins to enter the Americas, and the ancient geography of the "Southern Route" from Africa to Australia and New Guinea, which were both influence by ancient sea levels.

Endorheic basins, because they provide no natural connection to the rest of the world for ancient explorers tracing the sources of rivers, were probably more isolated in the ancient world, and hence more likely to have distinctive anthropological features. Their importance may rival that of mountain refugia like the Caucuses, the Nuba Mountains, and the Altai Mountains, and that of islands, in shedding light on deeper layers of history.

Also, because inland seas and lakes seem to vary more in extent than oceanic sea levels, the expansion and demise of these bodies of water may have had more intense impacts on local populations than recent, more modest rises and falls in oceanic sea levels.

01 March 2010

My Grandchildren's World Part II: Water and Peak Oil

One of the safer predictions one can make is that during the lives of my children and grandchildren, the price of oil will, on average, rise.

The supply of fossil fuels is finite. Our economic system systemically depletes easier to access supplies of fossil fuels before harder to access supplies of fossil fuels. Countries outside the developed world are rapidly increasing their demand for fossil fuels at a pace that is outstripping the capacity of the developed world to maintain its standard of living and become more efficient in using fossil fuels.

Peak oil is the concept that at some point, annual production of oil is going to go down, rather than up. There is considerable empirical evidence that we are closing in on this point. There is no evidence, however, that demand will go down. If supply can't grow as fast as demand does (something necessarily true if supply is falling), then prices will increase.

This doesn't mean that we will simply run out of oil. It will be possible to buy gasoline for uses where it is worth $25 a gallon for a long time. Instead, what you will see is that people make increasingly dramatic decisions to reduce their oil consumption in favor of substitutes, as the price of oil rises.

At some price, people will favor more fuel efficient vehicles over less fuel efficient vehicles. At a higher price, public transportation and freight rail (which are more fuel efficient than any low occupancy/small freight load vehicle) will see much higher use. At some price, electric and natural gas powered vehicles will make more sense than gasoline powered vehicles. At some price, biofuels and liquid and gaseous products of coal will make more sense that petroleum source fuels. At some fuel price, living in a central city makes more economic sense than commuting. At some oil price, organic agriculture makes more sense than agriculture based on petroleum based fertilizers, pesticides and farm machinery.

European and Japanese economies, whose tax structure produces fuel prices roughly double what they are in the United States, provide us with a sneak preview of what kinds of choices will be made when rising oil prices drive up the price of oil based fuels.

The task of predicting the impact of peak oil is simplified by the fact that it is overwhelmingly used in a small number of ways: for cars and trucks, for heating oil in the Northeast, for trains and planes, for farm machinery and boats, to power industrial processes, for plastics, and for fertilizers and other chemicals.

Non-petroleum fuels for home heating and industrial processes are already widely used, so the way heating oil and industrial process power needs will adapt to higher oil prices is easy to predict. Natural gas (and cousins like propane) and electricity can easily step in to replace them. Trains, planes, farm machinery, boats, plastics, fertilizers and other chemicals are high value, low volume uses compared to cars and trucks and have few good substitutes apart from organic farming, so high prices for oil are likely simply to make the associated goods and services more expensive without greatly restructuring these industries other than encouraging organic farming.

The big, complex part of understanding peak oil really boils down to what changes will happen to motor vehicle use and activities that flow from motor vehicle use as gasoline and diesel prices rise. In the analysis I've conducted before, a critical cutoff, with current technology, is the likely transition from gasoline based cars and trucks to electric cars and trucks, at least for local transportation where rail is not practical, at about $8-$16 a gallon (compared to about $2.50 a gallon in the U.S. today).

Bio-oils can be good substitutes for petroleum, but require different fuel crops, a great deal of land, and are sensitive in usefulness to the agricultural methods used (i.e. need to be produced in low energy ways to produce net energy outputs).

Note that peak oil does not meaningfully impact anything that currently runs on natural gas or electricity, except to the extent that natural gas and electricity supplies are diverted to transportation needs. Outside Alaska and Hawaii, very little electricity is generated with petroleum, and Hawaii uses far less petroleum in transportation than the rest of the nation.

One way to understand the Industrial Revolution is as the point at which we transitioned from non-fossil fuels to a coal based economy. In this view, there was then a second phase of the Industrial Revolution when we transitioned from a coal based economy to one in which petroleum played a major part. In any energy based view of our economic history, the next stage in our economy is a post-petroleum economy.

In this energy based view of modern economic eras, one of the big challenges facing my children and grandchildren will be to find a way to sustain a decent standard of high technology living in an economic environment where petroleum is far more expensive than it is today. The race is one to develop technologies and production capacity for those technologies to allow us to transition relatively painlessly to a more sustainable energy infrastructure and energy price influenced economy. If gasoline prices went to $16 a gallon tomorrow, our economy would be in a crisis. If this happens in fifteen years, after we've put lots of plug in electric vehicles on the roads and have the capacity to build or convert more quickly, it might not be a big deal.

This hope is not an impossible one. Our capacity to produce electricity with coal, nuclear power and renewable energy sources like hydroelectric, wind, and solar sources has advanced immensely from where it was sixty years ago. These sources are now capable of producing far more energy at a far more reasonable price than they could in the pre-petroleum era.

We have also learned to be profoundly more efficient in how we use energy in areas from lighting to superconducting materials to insulation to water heating to regenerative braking on vehicles to low energy ways to recycle raw materials rather than producing new ones.

Some of our strides in conservation as a concept have allowed us to heat water and to heat our homes with less energy. This together with an increased recognition of the immense waste that is involved in buring off natural gas from oil wells, and improved natural gas storage and transportation technologies, may postpone "peak natural gas" (due sometime later than peak oil) as well. And, at some price, it makes economic sense to produce natural gas substitutes from coal, which we have a supply of for the foreseeable future (subject to concerns about global climate change and other downsides of pollution intrinsically linked with fossil fuel consumption).

The lessons we've learned about doing what we need to have done with less energy have been paralleled in our understanding of new ways to conserve water. We've learned about the importance of xeriscaping and drip irrigation in arid areas. We've learned to do everything from washing clothes to washing dishes to washing cars to flushing toilets with less water. We've discovered ways to cycle water faster with gray water technologies, and ways to turn unuseable water into useable water with new desalinization and water purification technologies.

The worlds that Steam Punk culture have been envisioning are, in part, visualizations of what post-petroleum worlds might look like. They would have some echos of the pre-petroleum technological order (which would not be a complete collapse of modern civilization) modified by alternative technologies that have developed with the cheap oil glut we enjoyed in the 20th century. Modern windmills and nuclear power plants, in particular, are game changers limiting our tendency to regress without cheap oil.

Another big impact of peak oil will be on how the economic development of developing world and Third World is colored by rising oil prices. Countries like China and India (those two alone make up more than a third of the world's population) are just on the brink of transitioning to much higher gasoline powered automobile use, and to greater use of petroleum fueled industrial processes (from coal) and rising oil prices will impact what choices those countries make in the process of developing (e.g. more passenger rail v. more roads) and how fast they develop. The demise of cheap oil is likely to bias the development choices made everywhere and to slow economic development in many places that are currently moving in a petroleum dependent direction.

Then again, countries that develop in the first place on the assumption of expensive oil make experience less economic trauma as oil prices rise than those that were reliant on petroleum and have to be weaned from it.

Yet another impact of peak oil is the likely collapse of economies reliant on oil production as their supplies run out, one by one, with some countries seeing dramatically declining oil production much more quickly than the world oil markets as a whole do, and others experiencing it later. Countries like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Sudan, Libya, Iraq, Iran, Venezula, and Nigeria, to name just a few, could be particularly impacted, as could U.S. States like Texas and Alaska. Pressure will also mount to sacrifice the environment to allow oil production where it had not been previously permitted as prices rise.

Many of these countries are non-democratic, and the capacity of leaders to sustain a non-democratic regime has a lot to do with the ability of leaders to secure economic ends without mass cooperation, something that ceases to be possible when oil supplies wane and taxes must be imposed on the general economy to pay for public services.

19 February 2010

The Future Will Have Less Grass

According to Denver Water, household water used breaks down as follows:

54% landscaping
13% toilets
11% laundry
10% showers and baths
6% faucets
5% leaks
1% dishwashers

The most painless way for most households to cut water useage is to reduce the amount used on landscaping.

There will be pressure as Colorado and other parts of the arid west grown the water supply of the region. But, simply reducing landscaping water use can increase the carrying capacity of the Denver metropolitian area from a water perspective by up to about a million people.

Legalizing gray water systems to allow toilets to use recycled water not fit for cleaning or drinking could stretch supplies even further.

This set of statistics doesn't show it, but xeriscaping golf courses (or eliminating them), discontinuing irrigated agriculture in places where it is marginal, and increasing the efficiency of irrigated agriculture through steps like replacing broadcast sprinkling systems with drip systems, also leave lots of room to strech our current water resources further.

25 August 2009

Indirect Land Use Control

The predominant way for government to regulate land use in the United States today is with zoning laws that mandate that only certain kinds of property uses be allowed in certain places. But, this isn't the only possible tool.

Water As A Limitation on Development

In Grand Junction, Colorado, and in Douglas County, Colorado, the local municipal water agency frequently has more power in land use decisions than zoning officials. The supply of drinking water is modest and getting approval for a tap for a new structure is often more of a barrier to development in these places than what is legal to build in an area.

Access As A Limitation on Development

Another way too control development is by limiting access.

On public lands, Bill Clinton's famous "roadless rule" is designed to work that way (the "roadless rule" was gutted in the Bush Administration, but appears to have been reinstated by a court finding that the revocation was not done using the proper procedures).

Another example is the controversy in Bells Bend, Tennessee over a proposed second downtown called "May Town Center" on what is now agricultural land. Lack of access has protected the land from development so far, and opponents of the project prefer this approach to the open space greenbelt that the developer has suggested.

The current proposal is "to build at least two (and probably three) bridges to haul traffic in and out of currently remote and inconvenient Bells Bend." Planners favored the proposal stating:

Staff has evaluated May Town Center’s substantial economic impact, its aggressive land conservation plan, and its developers’ commitment to constructing public roads and bridges over the life of the project to manage off-site traffic impacts.


Opponents complaint that:

[The] chief planner seems to assume--naively defying all past rezoning realities--that a mere belt of undeveloped green space around May Town Center will insure open space conservation in Bells Bend better than the bridgeless Cumberland itself. Where did he get the notion that greenbelts provide anything but token resistance to greenbacks? Engineered open space would hardly be a match for the avarice folded into high returns on cheap undeveloped land and the developer-friendly tendencies of the Planning Commission.


Sacred Groves And Environmental Protection

These cases also bring to mind a study done by one of my father's environmental science students in another country (IIRC, India). The study found that in country where the local area was largely undeveloped, compared open space preservation in "sacred groves" protected by locals on religious grounds, with little government involvement in the preservation effort, to public land preserves where harmful uses were subject to government regulation and abuses were subject to criminal sanctions.

The sacred groves ended up being preserved from an environmental perspective better than the public land preserves. This happened despite the fact that the sacred grove rules, which were religious in nature, weren't expressly set out to preserve open space, plants and habitats. Some commentators even describe sacred groves as biodiversity hot spots where otherwise extinct specifies are found.

A quick search finds a study on sacred groves and environmental protection in Ghana and in Southeastern India. Ongoing inquiry of similar situations in Tanzania is being conducted.

26 June 2009

June Wet In Colorado

Denver, Colorado entered June a little below the average for annual rainfall to date. We are now already more than two inches ahead of the year to date average (about a third more than normal) and are far above average for June. It is raining again today, so the last few days of June promise to provide even more moisture. If I recall correctly, snow packs also got to slightly more than their annual averages before the season was out in the South Platte River Valley, and close in most other river basins in the state.

It is peak rose season now, with rose bushes in full bloom all over the city. I'm envious has I have made several sincere attempts to make roses grow at my house, always to abject failure despite soil amendments, rose food, diligent watering and everything else I could think of to do. Thankfully, my many Wash Park neighbors are better gardeners than I am.

20 April 2009

Denver Drought Averted

The heavy spring snow and rain this past few days has brought Denver from being woefully short (about 60% short) of precipitation this year, to a little over the norm for the year to date. It has also topped up the snow pack in the South Platte River Valley in which we reside, which had been modestly below average going into the storm (about 3%).

Thus, the odds are now good that we will escape drought this year in Denver. The fact that this all changed in a few days illustrates that precariousness of our situation. Our moisture comes in brief, infrequent and intense bouts. One storm can make or break us for the year. This year we got lucky.

18 July 2008

Not My Tribe Considers Toilets

I've noted before at this blog that I often disagree with the authors of Not My Tribe, but continuing my recent focus on toilets, I'll highlight two posts there today on that subject.

Should Yellow Mellow?

Marie Walden today, makes the case for flushing your toilet less often so as to emulate our neighbors in the Golden State.

In the comments there, I suggested that her one third of household water use for flushing statistic (from the Colorado Springs Gazette, which is not the world's best newspaper) is really closer to one eighth (based upon the East Larimer County water company's statistics).

I also tend to disagree with the no flush policy enshrined in the California motto, "if it's yellow, let it mellow, if it's brown, flush it down," although I see her point. In my view dual mode toilets (a big flush for solids and a small one for liquids), and gray water toilets (where clean water in a house is recycled for flushing for which less clean water is satisfactory) make better sense as water conservation solutions than low flow toilets (a personal pet peeve), or the waterless urinals that they have at the recreation center in Golden, Colorado closest to town hall.

Is Capitalism A Big Toilet?

Three Cheers For Socialized Sewage

Tony Logan, meanwhile, examines the crappy world toilet situation as an example of the failure of capitalism. He is, of course, absolutely correct sanitation in much of the world is dismal. I've twice in recent days discussed latrines as the best short term solution to that problem in the Third World, at least until decent municipal sanitation can be established.

He offers the sad state of world sanitation as exhibit one in a larger indictment of the failure of capitalism to solve the world's problems, and hence, the inadequacy of capitalism itself at solving problems that perhaps communism could. He looks to an allegedly capitalism driven worldwide toilet shortage as a metaphor for capitalism's role in impeding U.S. efforts to secure decent healthcare for all.

I would also freely agree that good sanitation is best handled with government as the primary actor via municipal water and sanitation systems (which might be called "socialized sewage" by histrionic Republicans), secondarily through regulation of housing development through building codes by local government, and with a decided tertiary role assigned to individual firm or household involvement in solving the problem.

Market based solutions and personal responsibility for disposal of human waste free of government involvement makes sense only in rural America and the exurbs, where septic systems are preferable for reasons of cost to establishing the infrastructure necessary to maintain municipal systems. In urban and suburban areas, sewage is what they call in economics a "natural monopoly" because the economies of scale involved in have a comprehensive sewer system overwhelm all other considerations.

But, despite being a strong proponent of socialized sewage, I also disagree with Mr. Logan. I do not think that capitalism is the root cause of the Third World's woes in the toilet arena or otherwise. The industrialized world's greatest sin is of omission, it has not done a good job of finding a way to help other countries secure public health, healthy economies and better governments.

Indeed, conceptualizing economics issues in the developed world as capitalist or communist is an important reason that the industrialized world has done a poor job of promoting development elsewhere. Inherent in the domestic political movement that distrusts excessive government activity is the fact that the U.S. and the rest of the developed world used government to solve a lot of the problems that government isn't solving abroad in the Third World long ago, so we have forgotten about these uncontroversial government institutions and roles in our public discourse. When industrialized world policy makers come to the Third World, that arrive with their attitudes framed by a political discussion irrelevant to solving the problems at hand.

When Did The United States Develop?

If we want to look for the right lessons from our political history to solve the Third World's problems, which should look not to the present but to the eras in our own history when we solved similar problems, and even then, we need to ask ourselves if those solutions make sense elsewhere.

Flush toilets came to most of urban America before the Civil War, and to most of the rural American South during Reconstruction and the decade or two that followed (a trend that real began to take hold, incidentally, while Northern carpetbaggers were in charge).

Urban America mostly had municipal electrical service already when the Great Depression hit, after which the Rural Electrification Administration was established to do the same in rural America, a task mostly completed in two or three decades (I have the statistics in a past post at this blog on the History of Energy also reproduced at dKospedia).

Municipal police forces were first established in the late 1800s, replacing the local, mostly volunteer militias that preceded them, and soon became the norm nationwide. The nation didn't need a national law enforcement agency (the FBI) until Prohibition led to massive organized crime, and state level law enforcement growth was mostly a product of the automobile, which made state highway patrols necessary. Even today in the United States, more than 90% of law enforcement officers are at the county and municipal level, with multiple state police and federal law enforcement agencies, sometimes working at cross purposes with each other, making up the balance of law enforcement officers.

Likewise, most, but not all, states use locally elected prosecutors or district attorneys, or prosecutors appointed by local government elected officials, to decide who should be prosecuted and what plea bargains should be struck. A larger share of the judicial function in criminal cases takes place at the state level, but probably a majority of criminal cases are still heard before judges who are either elected locally, or appointed by local elected officials.

In contrast, the national government has played a leading role in Britain (Scotland Yard) since the day of Queen Victoria and continues to have little local control of law enforcement (there are 42 police districts in England with appointed supervisory boards, but most law enforcement policy is set by the Home Secretary who is a member of the cabinet appointed from Parliament), and the autonomy of local government in the U.K. has been limited for most of its history. Both Italy and France likewise historically ran local government from the central government through appointed local prefects, with the establishment of strong elected local government bodies not really taking hold until the late 20th century.

I don't have good dates on the history of municipal fire protection services, but suspect that this was probably widespread in urban America even sooner (fire protection was a general civic duty of neighbors in rural America until a very late date, and volunteer fire departments remain common in small communities).

Indeed, most of the governmental functions that work seamlessly and invisibly in the United States, but are obviously and tragically absent or mishandled in most of the third world, are governmental functions which a assigned to local governments and are mostly non-partisan in the United States.

How Did The U.S. Get Strong Elected Local Governments?

The American tradition of strong elected local governments dates to the Colonial era and the Puritan's Mayflower Compact, and continues uninterrupted, helps explain why such important and basic governmental functions were assigned to them. The practical communication and transportation gaps between the European monarchies that established colonies in the New World and the subject colonies made local autonomy a necessity. Also, a large share of American local governments were established after the right of ordinary (or at least middle class and affluent) people to vote was widely established internationally, and most importantly, in Britain, while many European local governments pre-date the popular franchise (although there were democratically governed towns long before there was democratic national governments in any great number), so the establishment of elected local government required innovation in Europe. National governments run by elected officials, which were more responsive to reformers than monarchies, were established before elected local governments were established in much of Europe.

Property taxation was the primary method of American municipal finance from pre-Revolutionary War days, until after World War II, at least, and remains a dominant means of finance for many municipal governments. Where property taxation didn't do the trick, early American governments in the feudal tradition, received services in kind, on juries, in the local militia, and so forth, to finance government undertakings that government didn't. Property taxes were initially the only tax source for public school funding and remain the dominant means of providing the local component of funding for public schools. And, as property tax scholars note, in relatively egalitarian communities, where home values tend to be similar, property taxes look a lot like simple head taxes. Meanwhile, in communities with gross inequalities of wealth, property taxes are quasi-feudal, with major property owners financing such governmental services as exist, for the benefit of their "subjects."

Of course, prior to the American Revolution, property ownership was still tied to the franchise, and it remained tied to the franchise for almost century after the Revolution in much of the United States. Also, historically, and really up until the Warren court really took up the cause of nationalizing the Bill of Rights and giving those rights practical legal meaning, the legal responsibilities of a local government weren't much different from the local responsibilities of a private corporation. In any case, state statutory restrictions on local government powers prior to the widespread onset of home rule charters, left local governments with little general legislative authority. With a financing mechanism limited to homeowners based on home value, a franchise limited to property owners, few operational requirements uniquely associated with having a governmental character, and limited general legislative power, municipal governments in the days when most municipal governments around today were founded looked more like today's home owner's associations than like modern governmental entities that happen to be municipalities.

Capitalism, Communism, Islam, and the Roman Empire

There is more to the scope of government than the tired old fight between capitalists and communists. The fight between capitalist and communists only makes sense in societies that have reached the stage of economic development where it makes sense and evolved in the first place, the industrial age. Then, at that stage of the game, some societies, like the British and Americans, accomplished industrialization mostly through the private sector, while in much of the rest of the world, major industrialization efforts were largely government led. (The Japanese and Korean system of oligarchic cabals sort of splits the difference.) But, until a society has meaningful physical capital, who owns that capital is irrelevant.

The Third World is full of disorganized communities in which no one is in a position take roll up their sleeves and turn underutilized services and resources into useful collective action. Governments, religious organizations, civic organizations and businesses are all devices for organizing groups of people bringing about that kind of action.

My take on the explosive initial growth of Islam is to a great extent the ability of its leaders to organize people to take action to better their communities that Islam's unified leadership fused church and state made possible. After the collapse of the Roman Empire, the pagan communities that Islam conquered, were disorganized and far less dynamic. Certainly, the Islamic empire was also extended at the tip of the swords of horse riding soldiers, but military force alone can't explain how that empire grew so fast from such a tiny baseline. Islam expanded from a tiny community of Arab believers, to an empire that stretched from Spain and Morroco to Indonesia, mostly in the first couple of generations following the death of its founding prophet. Force of arms alone, despite only minimal advances from pre-existing warcraft that arose at the time, makes a less persausive argument for this dramatic expansion than the force of ideas (in this case a more functional social organization), which could have muted organized opposition and permitted conquered territories to be easily co-opted.

Similar community catalysis can been seen in those areas, both inside and outside the United States, where Islam and Islamic institutions (or other religious organizations, such as the tremendously rapidly growing Christian churches and organizations in Africa) are growing most rapidly today. For example, the ability of the Taliban's Islamists to shake people out of three decades of anarchy into a coherent functioning society largely explains there rise to power in the stateless nation that was Afghanistan before they took control, until they were swept out of power just as they were on the verge on controlling the entire country in the post-9-11 invasion by the United States and its allies. If the Taliban hadn't organized Afghan society out of the funk it had fallen into, prior to the post-9-11 invasion, the country would have been ungovernable by anyone.

Back To Toilets

Where am I going with this and what does it have to do with Third World toilets?

Most places that have bad sanitation also have rampant unemployment. This is notable because unemployment is not primarily a shortage of jobs, but is instead a key measure of a societal failure to creativity and entrepreneurship. Behind the visible lack of physical capital is a lack of human and social capital. Unemployment happens when not enough self-starters with power can thing of anything worthwhile for less self-driven people to do. In any community with poor sanitation, there is no shortage of worthwhile work that could be done by unemployed people. Creating good sanitation systems is work that doesn't have to be done with cheap manual labor, but it is also work that certainly can be done that way.

In any community with both bad sanitation and rampant unemployment one of the big underlying problems is a lack of leadership to put two and two together to make everyone better off. It doesn't really matter if leaders style themselves as local government officials, business chiefs, clergy or non-profit organization directors. All that matters it that someone establishes some social structure to meet people's obvious needs with resources that are already available to meet those needs. It isn't that these communities don't have people that could potentially be those leaders, but those people either lack the know how, or can't manage to secure the authority they need, to make a difference.

In contrast, a well organized society, like that of the Romans, who were well known as the best plumbers of the ancient world, the Egyptians (who invented surveying out of the need to manage flood damage), the Greeks, the Incas and Mayans, the Anasazi (also known for their good water management), the Chinese Dynasties in their golden age, and the Islamic empire at its peak, can achieve high levels of civilization even without modern technology or particularly unusual natural resources.

What the Third World real needs is some way to get their societies organized to meet their basic needs using well established technologies, so that they can, having established the basic necessities for functioning, move on to making a better life for themselves from a firm foundation.

The Third World plays Plato

Plato, in his political treatise, The Republic compared various forms of government and asked which was best. Much of the Third World, is with greater and lesser degrees of conscious thought, asking the same question. What kind of society do we need to have to secure the good life?

The most of the Third World is neither capitalist nor communist. Many Third World monarchies, dictatorships and one party systems are for practical purposes feudal or neo-feudal. Other places, like Somalia, Northwestern Pakistan, and the rural portions of most Third World countries that are far from their small numbers of government officials and sprawling haphazard cities, are often pre-feudal, with fractured tribes and warlords having predominant influence locally.

It is little wonder then, that Islamists have been these places their new centers of evangelization and power bases. Reforming these kinds of communities is what brought Islam to the powerful role it has in today's world. The trouble is that while Islamist are good at bringing communities out of chaos and into order, they can impede further development in the organized urban communities that follow. Iran seems to have developed some sort of nascent democratic capitalism shepherded by Islamic theocracy, as have a couple of Islamic monarchies, but there are been more failures than successes, and even now Iran is experiencing intense international friction and chaffing against the limitations theocracy imposes upon it domestically, simmering below the official surface. Theocracy is a dead end development strategy.

Both capitalism and communism would be a boon to these countries, which have neither in any meaningful sense, if they could be pulled off. But, capitalism presumes a strong state to enforce the legal rights of the capitalist who has no army of his own. Communism presumes a society of full of people who have the inclination and ability to manage a whole society of large enterprises by committee. Most Third World countries lack either. Marx himself was very aware that neither capitalism nor communism are the default grounds states of economic organization, and are, instead successors to early modes of economic organization. Theocracy, another leading economic organization option, is effective at first in the situations the Third World faces, but is a dead end in the long run.

Democratic capitalism works pretty well in some places, and those places happen to be the wealthiest societies on the planet. But, democratic capitalism is only a means to an end, and I, at least, am not ideologically committed to it. I favor it because it often works, as a practical matter, not because it is right as a matter of some modern day natural law. Indeed, one important reason why the developed world has less than burgeoning enthusiasm for encouraging the economic development of the rest of the world has been the long list of failures that its efforts to put in place governmental and economic institutions in their own image has produced.

Democratic capitalism requires a lot of elements to work. These include elected officials who know how to give direction to civil servants in ways that produce result and have workable plans for securing the results the public is asking for, significant levels of administrative competence for a large class of civil servants, widely held commitments by community members and civil servants to non-corrupt administration, high levels of societal organization, strong coincidences between written law and actual practice in daily life, secure governmental authority, national level civic and political organization, a widespread money based post-subsistence economy, and a consensus on the core rules under which rule of law will operate. If enough of the elements needed to make democratic capitalism work are absent, it is unstable and can't produce effective civil government. In the industrial world, the necessary elements are so ubiquitous these predicates to making it work can be virtually ignored. But those elements are not present everywhere. Often in those countries, the military is the only institution organized enough to salvage the state at all (or is, at least, the most organized governmental institution in the country), so it steps in (often prematurely) when the fumbles of the civilian democratic regime grow obvious and no one manages to step up to the plate to fix them in normal civilian democratic channels.

For all its faults, colonialism was probably, on the whole, better than what it left in its wake, for the average citizens of colonial regimes. While almost all initially adopted democratic capitalist regimes upon attaining independence, you can count on your fingers the number that managed to hold onto it continuously afterward. The most notable post-Colonial regime to stay democratic, India, did so only after enduring a painful ethno-geographic schism and carefully hewing a middle line between communism and capitalism, and only after several hundred years of making a more nuanced assessment of the lessons to be learned from its colonizers, a period much longer than most of its fellow colonies of first world countries. Alas, as the small number of successful post-colonial regimes makes clear, like theocratic regimes, colonial powers also have a tendency to thwart further development. In the colonialism case, these thens to happen when colonized powers threaten to compete with the domestic industries and interests of the colonizing power.

Given the spectacular collapse of the one party rule regime that was the basis of the Soviet Union's empire, and the lack of necessary predicates to a thriving democratic capitalist government in much of the rest of the world, it is little wonder that prominent alternatives like Iran's theocratically restrained democracy, and China's more organic and undoctrinaire species of Communist government, look attractive. I'm not conviced, given the bloody and tumultuous history of Maoist communism in the world, even if much of that has faded away, that Chinese communism is much more attractive, although it has enough currency that the first democratic parliamentary regime of Nepal, upon shedding its monarchy, is one that calls itself Maoist.

I can't easily point to a way out that is better than the options discussed above. If there were a clear example, everyone would have followed it by now and there would be no Third World. But, sketching out the problems with the current approaches is a good first step to finding a better solution, even if it may have to wallow through muddy territory full of crappy alternatives on the way there.