JoeSettler made a mistake, and Israel is going to pay for it

It's not often that I'm wrong, and some of you might revel in that I made a mistake, except that the mistake I made is a bad one. Two weeks ago I read into Obama's statement, following his spectacularly bad Syrian fiasco that he would actually be dealing with his mess at home, and finally leave Israel alone. Unfortunately, that wasn't the case. Even worse, at the UN, Obama made it abundantly clear that he plans to double down on his pressure on Israel. He made it appear that he is linking that to dealing with Iran, though it's clear he won't do anything at all with Iran, that needs doing, except maybe invite Rouhani to dinner and a photo op. So, he just going to concentrate on making things bad for Israel. Obviously feels he hasn't screwed up the rest of the Middle East enough yet, so he needs to destabilize the only stable country in the region. Gee, thanks.


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Did Iran and Russia Just Save Israel?

It would be ironic if true, but it may very well be that Iran and Russia (and Syria) just saved Israel (or God did, using them as proxies). Obama stated on Thursday that he's going to be pivoting his focus away from the international arena and instead concentrate on domestic issues and politics (God help America). After having been burnt in Syria, and completely played by Russia and Iran, it's as close to an admission of policy failure and incompetence as you can possibly get. On the downside, it means the U.S. military may not be dealing with Iran if it tries to cross the nuclear red line, but based on what we've heard during the Syrian debacle, it seems unlikely they were going to do so in the first place. A number of respected U.S. military commentators were saying outright that the U.S. could not financially afford a full-scale war with Syria. The U.S. would need to be prepared for escalation into a full-scale war if they were going to undertake even limited military action. So, if the U.S. wasn't prepared or capable of running a small or full scale operation/war in third world Syria, how can anyone reasonably have expected that they would be in a position to do so in Iran? The message here for Israel, is that Israel is going to have to turn directly to their true source of power for this one. On the upside, if Obama feels burned by Syria, the Arab Spring, Egypt, Russia, and everything else International, then maybe, just maybe, he'll leave Israel alone too. Maybe this is the end of Obama trying to embed Hamas into Judea and Samaria, and trying to divide Jerusalem, trying to kick out Jews out of our homes, and trying to promote this latest "peace process". One can hope. G'mar Chatima Tova

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Another Dark Day for America

I think it's fair to say that Putin spit in Obama's face yesterday, and then rubbed it in for good measure. Just the other day, President Obama made a Clintonian-like statement regarding a possible intervention in Syria, “First of all, I didn't set a red line. The world set a red line.” Um, except that Obama did set a red line. On Aug. 20, 2012, Obama said, “We have been very clear to the Assad regime ... that a red line for us is, we start seeing a whole bunch of chemical weapons moving around or being utilized.” That's a pretty pathetic attempt to extricate himself from a poorly thought out statement, but not unexpected anymore. Obama painted himself into a corner, and he's been trying to weasel his way out of it, ever since he realized that people were listening to what he said and trying to hold him to it. And now Obama apparently believes that Putin has pulled his chestnuts out of the fire. Syria will (maybe) give up their chemical weapons. Russia and Iran(!) will be guarantors of the deal. Of course, Putin wasted no time in using this victory to reposition Russia as the world's new, undefied superpower. He announced he is going to complete the sale to Iran of the S-300 anti-aircraft missiles that he was forced to halt 3 years ago. He's going to build another nuclear reactor in Iran. (And let's not forget Snowden). Everything that America doesn't (shouldn't?) want to happen. So, if you haven't gotten the point yet, Obama just unilaterally demoted the US from being the sole global superpower. He just gave Iran a green light to do what they want without fear of reprisal, and he personally conceded world leadership to Vladmir Putin. September 11 will once again go down in history as another dark day for America.

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Iran's New President Hassan Rohani is just as Moderate as Syria's Bashar al-Assad

When Syria's leader Bashar al-Assad assumed the mantle of leadership after his father's Hafez's death, he was portrayed as the new hope for Western-Arab relations.  Labeled as a "moderate" Bashar was sent to the West, and attended postgraduate studies in London specializing in ophthalmology.

Western liberals swooned over video game-playing Bashar, who was head of the Syrian Computer Society which introduced the Internet to Syria in 2001.  In an interview, Bashar stated that he saw democracy in Syria as 'a tool to a better life.'   Even as late as March 2010, Italy bestowed  their highest ranking honor to Dr. Bashar -- the Knight Grand Cross with Collar of the Order of Merit of the Italian Republic.   US Secretary of State, John Kerry has even referred to Bashar al-Assad, as "my dear friend.”  Diane Sawyer dutifully informed her viewers that "Bashar Assad is ready to work with the United States.

Whether the West was fooled or simply used wishful thinking to drive their foreign policy,  Bashar has managed to brutally slaughter over 100,000 including via the use of chemical weapons.  Good thing that Israel didn't seriously consider taking to Bashar about giving up the Golan Heights for peace with this brutal dictator (despite ongoing pressure from Israel's left).

"Assad is waiting for Olmert" --  leftwing "peace" sticker defaces a traffic sign Location;

Outside Jerusalem's International Convention Center (c) 2011 The Muqata Blog

Here we go again.  The media is awash with praise for Iran's newly elected leader, Hassan Rouhani. CNN calls him a centrist, TIME gushes about the new "moderate" and the Huffington Post calls him a "reformist."

Not letting facts get in the way of their analysis or wishful-thinking, 99% of the Western media and  leadership praises the new leader.

Yet who needs the Western Media?  Israel's leftwing Meretz leader already knows that Iran's new leader is the warm and fuzzy democrat we have been waiting for.

The election of relatively moderate Hassan Rohani as Iran’s president is as much a blow to Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu as it is to the extremists in Iran, Meretz leader Zehava Gal-On said Sunday.

Gal-On and other leaders on the Left condemned Netanyahu for his assessment that nothing had changed following Friday’s Iranian election. They accused the prime minister of fear-mongering for his own political purposes.

“Netanyahu will not let reality get in the way of his plans to attack Iran,” Gal-On said. “It seems that while the Iranian people and the West are welcoming the moderate new president, Israel’s leaders are still mourning despot [Iranian President Mahmoud] Ahmadinejad's departure. Netanyahu uses the Iranian threat whenever he wants to distract the public from the country’s real problems. Rohani’s election forces the prime minister to find new political spin.” (JPost)

Gal-On is so clueless, she doesn't even know that Israel's sworn enemy, Hizbollah is cheering the election of Hassan Rohani.

Lebanese militant Shi'ite Muslim group Hezbollah on Sunday welcomed the election of new Iranian President Hassan Rohani, calling him a "beacon of hope."

"The Arab and Muslim people... who have always seen the Islamic republic as a supporter of the oppressed... and every fighter who resists for God, consider you today a beacon of hope," AFP quoted the militant group as saying.

In a message, Hezbollah leader Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah congratulated Rohani for winning the trust of the Iranian nation in a “political epic,” Iran's Press TV reported.  (JPost)

Unfortunately for Israel's Prime Minister, it is extremely challenging to keep focus on Israel's security while the world (and Israel's left) smoke the opiates of delusional peace.

“Let us not delude ourselves,” Netanyahu said. “The international community must not become caught up in wishes and be tempted to relax the pressure on Iran to stop its nuclear program. It must be remembered that the Iranian ruler, at the outset, disqualified candidates who did not fit his extremist outlook and from among those whose candidacies he allowed was elected the candidate who was seen as less identified with the regime, who still defines the State of Israel [in an address last year] as ‘the great Zionist Satan.’” (ToI)

Just as video game-playing Assad is a chemical butcher,  Iran's Rohani will not stop his country's quest for a nuclear weapon to destroy Israel.


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Breaking: Explosion Rocks Iranian city of Isfahan, home to key nuclear facility

7:29 PM Update Channel 10 Israel TV reports of another huge explosion in Ishfahan -- this time in a Shahab-4 Ballistic missile facility.

Iran: Keep up the good work!

Reported by FARS (Iranian News Agency) and others...first reports emerged at 6:15 PM, Israel time.

A explosion rocked the western Iranian city of Isfahan on Monday, the semi-official Fars news agency reported, adding that the blast was heard in several parts of the city.

The reported incident occurred about two weeks after Gen. Hasan Tehrani Moghaddam was killed together with 20 other Guard members Nov. 12 at a military site outside Bidganeh village, 40 kilometers southwest of Tehran. (Haaretz)

(more at Elder of Ziyon)

The Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) updates us on nuclear facilities in Esfahan, Iran:

The Uranium Conversion Facility (UCF) at Esfahan contains process lines to convert yellowcake into uranium oxide, uranium metal, and uranium hexafluoride. It began operations in June 2006.

According to information provided to the IAEA, Iran carried out most of its experiments in uranium conversion between 1981 and 1993 at the Tehran Nuclear Research Center (TNRC) and at other facilities at Esfahan. In 1991, Iran contracted to purchase a turn-key, industrial scale conversion facility from China. This contract was eventually canceled as a result of US pressure, but Iran retained the design information and built the plant on its own. Construction of the UCF began in the late 1990s.

Iran declared that it began construction of the UCF without building and testing a pilot scale plant. After extensive analysis, the IAEA accepted this declaration.

The UCF consists of several conversion lines, including the line for the conversion of yellowcake to UF6. The annual production capacity of the UCF is 200 tonnes of uranium in the form of UF6. The UF6 iis slated for the uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz. The UCF is also able to convert yellowcake, LEU and depleted uranium into UO2 and depleted uranium metal. Iran has told the IAEA indicates that they plan to build conversion lines for the production of natural and enriched (19.7%) uranium metal for research reactors, and natural UO2 for use in the heavy water reactor. Suspicions remain that the line to produce 19.7% uranium metal was originally intended to produce HEU metal for nuclear weapons.

Fuel Fabrication Laboratory (FFL)
In 1985, Iran began operating a Fuel Fabrication Laboratory (FFL) at Esfahan that it commissioned from a foreign supplier. Iran informed the IAEA of the FFL in 1993 and provided design information in 1998. It is still in operation. According to the IAEA, the FFL is suitable for producing small amounts of fuel pellets.

Uranium Chemistry Laboratory (UCL)
In the early 1980s, Iran commissioned from a foreign supplier the construction at a Uranium Chemistry Laboratory (UCL). According to the IAEA, in 1998, Iran declared that UCL had been closed down since 1987.

Zirconium Production Plant (ZPP)
Iran has built a Zirconium Production Plant which, when completed, will be able to produce 10 tonnes of zirconium tubing per year for nucler fuel cladding. Construction started in 2004. The ZPP, according to Iranian officials, will be able to produce zirconium sponge, zirconium alloy strip and bar, magnesium, hafnium, 99.99 percent pure magnesium, zirconium alloys, titanium and titanium alloys, and can do ferrous and non-ferrous metal casting.

Lastly, YNET (coincidentally) reported the following today:

The IDF intelligence community on Monday commented on the explosion in a military base in Tehran two weeks ago, which killed one of Iran's missile project heads.

"The blast in the site where surface-to-surface missiles were developed can delay or bring to a complete halt the production of the missiles at that site," said head of the Directorate of Military Intelligence Research Section Department Brigadier General Itai baron at a briefing in the Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee.

"However," Baron cautioned, "It must be emphasized that Iran has other development sites other than the one that was destroyed." (more here)

Here's to more "accidents" -- L'Chaim!

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Nu, Flip the Switch Already!

The Daily Telegraph Reports that Russian scientists providing technical support to Iran's Bushehr nuclear reactor, are considered that activating the reactor, could cause a meltdown on the scale or the Chernobyl disaster.

The scientists, "..have raised serious concerns about the extensive damage caused to the plant's computer systems by the mysterious Stuxnet virus, which was discovered last year and is widely believed to have been the result of a sophisticated joint US-Israeli cyber attack."

Ali Akbar Salehi, Iran's foreign minister who also serves as head of the country's Atomic Energy Organisation, rejected suggestions earlier this month that the Bushehr opening schedule should be postponed. "All the rumours related to the Westerners' claims that Stuxnet had caused damage to the nuclear plants are rejected," he said.

However, Russian scientists working at the plant have become so concerned by Iran's apparent disregard for nuclear safety issues that they have lobbied the Kremlin directly to postpone activation until at least the end of the year, so that a proper assessment can be made of the damage caused to its computer operations by Stuxnet.

The Iranian government is bitterly opposed to any further delay, which it would regard as another blow to national pride on a project that is more than a decade behind schedule. While Western intelligence officials believe Iran's nuclear programme is aimed at producing nuclear weapons, Iran insists the project's goals are peaceful.

The Russian scientists' report to the Kremlin, a copy of which has been seen by The Daily Telegraph, concludes that, despite "performing simple, basic tests" on the Bushehr reactor, the Russian team "cannot guarantee safe activation of the reactor".

It also accuses the Iranian management team, which is under intense political pressure to stick to the deadline, of "not exhibiting the professional and moral responsibility" that is normally required. They accuse the Iranians of having "disregard for human life" and warn that Russia could find itself blamed for "another Chernobyl" if it allows Bushehr to go ahead.

Go ahead guys and flip the switch already.

It's only a few wimpy, simple, basic, safety tests.



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Mysterious Blast Destroys Iranian Medium Range Missiles

While Iranian President Ahmadinejad prances around his Lebanese colony threatening Israel and the West, foreign media have reported that a mysterious explosion has killed 18 Iranian Revolutionary Guards, and a fire is now raging in the storage facility of Iran's medium range Shahab-3 ballistic missiles.

(RTTNews) - More than 18 Revolutionary guards were killed and 14 others wounded in an explosion Tuesday at a base of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards (IRG) Corps in the Western Iranian province of Lurestan, reported Iran's official news agency IRNA Wednesday.

A Deputy Commander of the Corps said that blast resulted from a fire that spread to a munitions depot at the corps's base in Khoramabad, 300 miles southwest of the capital, Tehran, and close to Iran's restive Kurdistan region.

Police and fire-and-rescue teams were rushed to the IRG base and the injured were taken to a hospital in Khoramabad, the agency said.

The base houses underground launching and storage facilities for Iran's medium-range Shahab-3 ballistic missiles, said research group Global Security.

Lorestan Governor General Hassan Shariatnejad visited the injured persons hospitalized and offered his condolences over the tragic incident. Local officials declared a two-day mourning Wednesday and a funeral was scheduled for Thursday.

Kudos to the pyromaniac responsible for the fire.
Update: 1:06 PM Two rockets were fired from Gaza at Ashkelon, resulting in air raid sirens. No reports of injuries, and the rockets apparently landed in open areas causing no damage.

Update: 4:20 PM Police say no rockets hit Israel, despite the eyewitness reports from people who heard 2 loud booms.

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Israeli Stuxnet Cyberweapon Taking Over the World?

Last week, reports first surfaced that a software virus was wreaking havoc in Iran, possibly damaging the Iranian nuclear weapons program.

The virus, named "stuxnet" is also causing all sorts of damage to China as well.

A computer virus dubbed the world's "first cyber superweapon" by experts and which may have been designed to attack Iran's nuclear facilities has found a new target -- China.

The Stuxnet computer worm has wreaked havoc in China, infecting millions of computers around the country, state media reported this week.

Stuxnet is feared by experts around the globe as it can break into computers that control machinery at the heart of industry, allowing an attacker to assume control of critical systems like pumps, motors, alarms and valves.

It could, technically, make factory boilers explode, destroy gas pipelines or even cause a nuclear plant to malfunction.

The virus targets control systems made by German industrial giant Siemens commonly used to manage water supplies, oil rigs, power plants and other industrial facilities. [BreitBart]

Suspicious fingers are pointing towards a silent Israel, and that the super top secret 8200 unit was behind it. 8200 is so top secret, that writing any more about it than the above mention could get this blog deleted and turned into a Belgian Website selling waffles.

On Thursday the NY Times found an alleged smoking gun, that Israel might be behind the virus -- in that one of the modules in the malicious software is named "Myrtus" (Hadas).

That use of the word “Myrtus” — which can be read as an allusion to Esther — to name a file inside the code is one of several murky clues that have emerged as computer experts try to trace the origin and purpose of the rogue Stuxnet program, which seeks out a specific kind of command module for industrial equipment.

Not surprisingly, the Israelis are not saying whether Stuxnet has any connection to the secretive cyberwar unit it has built inside Israel’s intelligence service. Nor is the Obama administration, which while talking about cyberdefenses has also rapidly ramped up a broad covert program, inherited from the Bush administration, to undermine Iran’s nuclear program. In interviews in several countries, experts in both cyberwar and nuclear enrichment technology say the Stuxnet mystery may never be solved.

There are many competing explanations for myrtus, which could simply signify myrtle, a plant important to many cultures in the region. But some security experts see the reference as a signature allusion to Esther, a clear warning in a mounting technological and psychological battle as Israel and its allies try to breach Tehran’s most heavily guarded project. Others doubt the Israelis were involved and say the word could have been inserted as deliberate misinformation, to implicate Israel. (NYTimes)

Instead of focusing on the Purim-time message of Esther/Hadas/Myrtle, the NY Times could have chosen the much more timely message of the current Jewish festival of sukkot -- in which the myrtle branches, "Hadassim" are ceremoniously waved along with the etrog, lulav and aravot (as part of the 4 species)


Regardless, I'm glad my blog isn't hosted on a Siemens Control Host computer...and I proudly serve in the IDF reserves (I hope that will keep my blog safe for now).

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What does it take to prove you're an enemy?

by Lurker

Yesterday, IDF Chief of General Staff Lt.-Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi testified before the Turkel commission investigating the Gaza flotilla incident. Judge Turkel asked him why the IDF was so completely unprepared for the murderous attacks against our soldiers by members of the IHH, the Turkish radical Islamist group that organized the flotilla. (The soldiers, who were "armed" with paintball guns, were obviously not told to expect any serious opposition.) Here is Ashkenazi's answer:

"The level of knowledge we had on the [IHH] was not like the level of information we have on Hamas. We did not investigate the organization. It was not on our list of our priorities, because it was not listed as a terrorist organization and was located in Turkey, which is not an enemy state -- and I hope it never will be."
[Sources: JPost, Haaretz]

Incredibly, even after hearing all the rabid, extremist diatribes against Israel spewed forth on an almost daily basis by Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and even after watching Turkey openly forge alliances with Iran, Syria, and Hizbullah, Ashkenazi -- and the Israeli government -- still have not grasped the simple and obvious fact that Turkey has become our enemy.

As for the IHH, if the folks at IDF Intelligence had bothered to do even a couple minutes of googling, they would have quicky discovered ample material clearly showing the organization's fanatical jihadist nature, such as this 2009 speech in Gaza by the head of the IHH, in which he called for martyrdom through attacks on Israel:



Regarding Turkey's imagined status as a "non-enemy" of Israel: News reports appearing on the very same day as Ashkenazi's testimony revealed that Turkey has arranged, in close cooperation with Iran and Syria, to provide Hizbullah with advanced weaponry, including rockets:

'Turkey to give Hizbullah weapons'

Israel, meanwhile, is actually continuing to sell advanced weapons systems to the Turkish military, and to train them in their use. One wonders why Israel doesn't simply eliminate the middleman, and just ship weapons directly to Hizbullah.

Poor PM Erdogan must be extremely perplexed and frustrated: He has done just about everything feasible within his power to demonstate clearly that he is a bona fide, full-fledged, fierce enemy of Israel: He has viciously denounced Israel as a criminal, terrorist state on every possible occasion, he has sent a ship filled with armed men who attempted to murder Israeli soldiers, and now he is supplying Hizbullah with guns and rockets. Yet with all this, Israel still stubbornly refuses to recognize him as an enemy. Erdogan must be banging his head against the wall, wondering what else he can possibly do to get the message across to those incredibly dense Israelis.

---

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Iranian Spin Doctors Place Israeli F16s in Saudi Arabia

The Islamic Times (Iran) made the following outlandish claim:

Secret Agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia in Tabuk
(Islam Times) – The Israeli army established a military base in Tabuk, which is located in northwestern Saudi Arabia. A number of Israeli airplanes landed in the international airport located nine kilometers away from Tabuk. A number of Israeli soldiers and military equipment disembarked from these airplanes. The Saudi Arabian aircraft ministry forbid all flights on Friday and Saturday. The passengers that were unable to board their planes believe that it has something to do with the Israeli airplanes.

A passenger that was planning to travel from Jeddah to Tabuk stated that the airport officials booked the passengers in four star hotels in order to prevent them from expressing their anger. The hotels were paid for by the government. Saudi Arabia has refused to explain why flights were cancelled on Friday and Saturday.
Saudi Arabia’s measures to allow Israel to use their country in order to harm the resistance movements in the region is something that has enflamed Muslims throughout the world in recent years.

Lenny Ben-David explains why this is patently ridiculous.

Tabuk is only 150 kilometers from Israel and offers zero advantage to Israel

Tabuk is located in northwest Saudi Arabia and 800 miles from Iran. It doesn't cut any flying time from Israel to Iran. If -- and that's a big if -- Israel wanted to attack from Saudi Arabia, there are other Saudi bases closer to Iran, such as the Prince Sultan base near Riyadh or the Dhahran base close to the Gulf. And, if Israel plans to attack Iran, and if Israel couldn't accomplish the task with mid-air refueling, there may be other bases in the region that would be better.

Lenny's right on the money and this story should be relegated to Snopes as urban legend.

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The Three Terrors

Latma's latest:

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Is Israel closer to attacking Iran?

All sorts of interesting news tidbits point to an escalation of military activity surrounding Iran.

NY Times: The top American commander in the Middle East has ordered a broad expansion of clandestine military activity in an effort to disrupt militant groups or counter threats in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Somalia and other countries in the region, according to defense officials and military documents.

JPost: "Reports that the Pentagon has okayed reconnaissance missions over Iran were seen in Jerusalem on Tuesday as the first public signs of practical preparations for a possible US military operation against Iran. Although it is obvious that the Pentagon has contingency plans for all possible scenarios, one Israeli official said this was “the first time that the public is getting word of practical preparations of military activity.”

The official said that if this was a deliberate leak, then it was clearly an attempt to send a tough message to the Iranians that, indeed, no options – as the US has been saying for months – have been taken off the table."

Its purely conjecture, but there are reports PM Netanyahu was summoned to Washington DC next week to meet with President Obama. Today, Netanyahu met with the inner cabinet of 7.

Interesting.


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Decoupling Iran and the Palestinians

In a fascinating article in the WSJ, entitled "Iran's Democratic Moment", we see a clear trend of protesters starting to demand an "Iranian Republic" not an "Islamic Republic."

The most interesting part of the article wasn't so much that the movement wants an Iranian Republic, but that they are clearly decoupling anti-Israel rhetoric and support for Palestinians from Iranian independence.

On Jerusalem Day, Sept. 18, officially intended to express anti-Semitism, the opposition showed that Iranians have no hostility toward Jews or Israel. One popular slogan was "Neither Hamas nor Hezbollah! I give my life for Iran!" Another was "Forget about Palestine! Think about our Iran!"

Most significantly, the movement that started as a protest against the alleged rigging of the election that gave a second term to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been evolving. The crowds' initial slogan was "Where Is My Vote?" and the movement's accidental leaders, including former Prime Minister Mir Hossein Mousavi, tried hard to keep the protest confined to demands such as a recount of the votes and, ultimately, a runoff in accordance with the law.

The slogans of the protestors are no longer about election fraud. Today they include "Death to the Dictator," "Freedom Now," and "Iranian Republic, Not Islamic Republic!" One slogan is a direct message to President Barack Obama: "Obama, Are You With Us or With Them?"

It is crucial for the USA to reject Iranian opposition leaders to the current regimes as possible options. The Iranian protesters for democracy do not view them as viable alternatives.

In short, the protestors no longer regard the present regime as the legitimate government of the country.

Both Mr. Mousavi and Ayatollah Mahdi Karroubi, another defeated presidential candidate, tried to prevent attacks on the "Supreme Guide" Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the hope of eventually making a deal with him. As part of such a deal, they promised to defend the Islamic Republic's nuclear program, according to sources close to the opposition. The crowds have rejected that by shouting: "Abandon uranium enrichment! Do something about the poor!"

They clearly reject Iran's nuclear program, which is good for Israel.

President Obama should be supporting the protest movement, though the US has a poor record on such support, if one uses Tiananmen Square protests as a litmus test of what to expect.

Even more important -- President Obama should realize that linkage of the Palestinian issue with Iran's nuclear program doesn't serve anyone's interest, except that of Ahmadinejad.

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Thoughts on the Freeze

Tonight marked the "Anti-Freeze settlement" demonstration in Jerusalem, and it brought over 10,000 demonstrators to it (10,000 according to the JPost, 15,000 according to YNET)

I wasn't there -- since I'm in London this week on business, yet I probably wouldn't have gone to the demonstration even if I was home.

The settlement freeze has multiple aspects to it. Netanyahu believes that freezing the settlements will give him the political maneuverability needed for Israel's strategic interest of attacking Iran's nuclear program. He has managed to convince many of the senior Likud ministers, even the most right-wing among them, such as Moshe "Bogie" Yaalon and Benny Begin, that the while ideologically abhorrent, its a necessary evil. That's from a strategic point of view.

And then there's the tactical aspect -- or more specifically, the small minded politics that hurt people for the sake of moving to the top, at the expense of others.

That's Ehud Barak.

While the inner cabinet decided on the freezing of "new" buildings, Barak let loose his inspectors on anything being constructed, despite "legal" within the framework of the cabinet decision. Barak wants to appear as heavy handed against the settlers, not because he believes it will help Israel's security, but because it will increase his standing among the more leftist elements within the Labor party. Border policemen beating up settlers is good press for Ehud Barak.

While the rest of the government ministries refused to cooperate by providing "inspectors" to help the Defense Ministry in its quest to freeze settlements (under the leadership of Ehud Barak), only one ministry agreed to help. The Agricultural Ministry...not surprisingly under the control of MK Shalom Simhon...also from the Labor party.

So the over-zealous inspectors show up, accompanied by brutal Yassam policemen, to settlements throughout the West Bank/Yehuda v'Shomron. My 13 year old daughter recounted to me when the inspectors showed up at the settlement where she goes to high school.

"The inspectors didn't come through the front gate, they came through a back gate to the settlement. Our principal shouted at us to run to that direction, and we scrambled through yards to get there. He got there first, and was assaulted immediately by policemen -- even though he didn't actually do anything. They grabbed him, ripped his shirt, threw him to the ground. One high school girl ran to film what was happening with her video camera -- the police grabbed her, and yanked her to the ground by her hair, and grabbed her video camera.

It was terrible."

This is exactly the type of press that Barak wants to help him continue leading the Labor party.

I don't think that Netanyahu wants to see this sort of press, and probably had much more modest ideas about the housing freeze -- but with Barak around, the situation will always lean towards violence against settlers.

Tonight's demonstration is good for Netanyahu to prove to the US Administration that a freeze in really in the works.

So what should we do?

1. There's no reason (in my opinion) to put up any fight against the stupid inspectors coming to issue official "freeze" orders. Rather, every settlement should have an electric paper shredder available -- and as the orders are dispensed, they should immediately go straight to the shredder. I doubt the police will beat anyone up for that (though with Barak at the helm, its hard to say).

2. Why help Netanyahu with a demonstration? We should continue to build, and wherever possible, challenge the government in court.

3. Continue to pressure government representatives and make the feel the pain of a settlement freeze -- and how people didn't vote Likud to enact policies of Ehud barak and the Labor party.

4. Here's an idea -- have a demonstration at a Tel Aviv building site to prevent building THERE. Let people know that its racist to prevent building in Jewish settlements in the West Bank, simply because we're Jews.

And then -- this happens. Its not enough to Ehud Barak to freeze our buildings -- he tries to demoralize us as well.

The Pesagot community near El-Bireh was just informed that the IDF unit guarding it -- will be leaving, with no replacement. YNET reports:

Residents of the settlement of Psagot have been living in relative calm for years now. In the early years of the al-Aqsa intifada, the community, which is located next to Ramallah, suffered from attacks from Palestinians living in the area. In order to restore peace to the area, the IDF decided to station a company of reserves soldiers to secure the community. Psagot residents now fear deterioration in the security situation in their community, following an announcement by Binyamin Division Commander Colonel Aviv Reshef, that the company would leave the site in a week's time, without having any other body take its place.

Mateh Binyamin Regional Council security officer Avigdor Shatz told Ynet the move constitutes a real threat to the lives of the residents. "The meaning of such a move is that a community which is located at a very serious point of friction with the hostile Palestinian population of Ramallah is left without a significant military force meant to separate between it and the residents of the settlement. Despite the relative calm of recent years, shooting incidents at the town are recorded each day."

The residents of the community were enraged by the decision and claim they are being picked on by Defense Minister Ehud Barak. "While he finds a budget to pay for inspectors to enforce the construction freeze in settlements, he can't find the money to preserve the safety of the residents and is abandoning us," a Psagot source said.

The next ten months are going to be difficult for the settlers.

Yet the upcoming preemptive IDF strike on Iran is going to make all our lives even more challenging.

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IDF Spokesman -- Blogger Press Conference

This evening at 9:30 PM, Lt. Col. Avital Leibovitch conducted a press conference for bloggers about today's IDF capture of an Iranian cargo ship, loaded with weapons on its way to Syria and Hezbollah.

IDF Spokesperson Lt. Co. Avital Leibovitch:

Late last night, IDF navy forces boarded an Iranian cargo ship. We asked the captain if we could check the containers of his ship and he agreed without a problem.

We checked the shipping containers and found they were filled with munitions, so we then directed the cargo vessel to accompany us to the port in Ashdod, Israel. The cargo vessel was intercepted by IDF naval forces about 100 nautical miles west of Israel

We have opened only 1/3 of the 40 containers so far (as of the press/blogger briefing at 9:30 PM)

We have found so far:

106mm rockets
107mm rockets
122 mm Katusha rockets
mortars
hand grenades

These munitions were packed in shipping containers, behind large bags of plastic polyethylene. In addition to the plastic material physically hiding the munitions, polyethylene prevents scanners from identifying munitions hidden behind them.

These munitions discovered so far were manufactured by China, Russia, and Spain, which goes against UN resolution 1747 - forbidding exports or commerce of weapons with Iran.

We saw on shipping documents that the vessel's port of origin is an Iranian port, and it's destination was Syria, for the weapons to get to Hezbollah.

Questions:

Jameel: Some of Israel's detractors claim that this was an act of piracy. What legal basis does the IDF in detaining this ship?

IDF Spox: This action was completely in accordance with international law. There is no legal problem to board and check the contents of a vessel in a country's surrounding area. No force was used whatsoever and the captain of the ship agreed to accompany IDF naval forces to the Ashdod port.

Question: Was this a routine mission or based on intelligence?

IDF Spox: This was a routine mission. The navy conducts checks like all the time.

IDF Spox: The amount of munitions seized is -- 10 times more than Karin A cargo boat which was illegally bringing munitions to the Palestinian Authority in Gaza in October 02. The Karin A has 50 tons of munitions aboard, while this boat last night had over 500 tons of munitions on board.

Question: Was this a 1 time success, or do ships like this transport weapons to Hezbollah all the time? Is this one boat captured out of five?

IDF Spox: We don't know how many other attempts or boats may have gotten through, but this is definitely part of a pattern to re-arm Hezbollah.

Question from David Abitbol/Jewlicious: What is the range of the rockets?

IDF Spox: More than 40 kilometers.

Question from David Abitbol/Jewlicious: While watching the video, some of the munitions looked brand new, while others looked a bit used. Why would Iran send anything less than brand new to Hezbollah?

IDF Spox: I was there today and saw all the munitions personally. They were all brand new. All of it, what has been opened so far.

Question from Prof. Richard Landes: What are the next moves for Israel in light of this success?

IDF Spox: That's more of a political question, one best addressed to Israel's government.

Thank you all for joining.

Good night.

IDF Spox Photos of boat and munitions...

Also see: IDF Spokesman Blog Updates

Relevant UN Resolutions:

UN Security Council Resolution 1737 (December 23^rd, 2006): A UN resolution determining, inter alia, a limit on export of certain Iranian products and items

-"Decides that Iran shall not export any of the items in documents S/2006/814 and S/2006/815 and that all Member States shall prohibit the procurement of such items from Iran by their nationals, or using their flag vessels or aircraft, and whether or not originating in the territory of Iran."

UN Security Council Resolution 1474 (March 24^th, 2007): Explicitly forbids all export of arms from Iran (not only to terrorist organizations), without relating to methods of enforcement.

"Decides that Iran shall not supply, sell or transfer directly or indirectly from its territory or by its nationals or using its flag vessels or aircraft any arms or related material, and that all States shall prohibit the procurement of such items from Iran by their nationals, or using their flag vessels or aircraft, and whether or not originating in the territory of Iran."

UN Security Council Resolution 1803 (March 24^th, 2008): Calls for supervision over the movement of aircraft and naval vessels owned by the companies Iran Air and IRISL (Annexes 11 and 12)

"Calls upon all States, in accordance with their national legal authorities and legislation and consistent with international law, in particular the law of the sea and relevant international civil aviation agreements, to inspect the cargoes to and from Iran of aircraft and vessels, at their airports and seaports, owned or operated by Iran Air Cargo and Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines, provided there are reasonable grounds to believe that the aircraft or vessel is transporting goods prohibited under this resolution or resolution 1737 (2006) or resolutions 1747 (2007);"

UN Security Council Resolution 1835 September 27^th, 2008: Reconfirms earlier resolutions dealing with the issue of Iranian exports and arms trading, and calls on Iran to immediately fulfill its obligations as they appear in prior resolutions.

“Reaffirms the statement of its President, S/PRST/2006/15, of 29 March, and its resolution 1696 (2006) of 31 July 2006, its resolution 1737 (2006) of 23 December 2006, its resolution 1747 (2007) of 24 March 2007, and its resolution 1803 (2008) of 3 March 2008…

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IDF Naval Commandos capture Iranian weapons ship

11:30 AM -- Breaking News: Minutes ago an Iranian ship loaded with weapons was brought to the Israeli naval port in Ashdod. The boat was on its way to Syria with a large shipment of weapons was intercepted by Israeli Naval Commandos, about 160 kilometers (100 miles) off the coast of Israel.


The JPost adds more:

"The elite Navy Commando unit Shayetet 13 soldiers, who didn't encounter resistance on board, found the weapons and ammunition cache hidden behind what appeared to be a civilian cargo.

According to the officials, the vessel carried advanced weaponry including missiles, and the incident was apparently similar in scope to the seizing of the Karine A ship intercepted in January 2002 off the coast of Gaza. That boat carried some 50 tons of military equipment including Katyusha rockets, antitank missiles, and high explosives."

Great work IDF, but watch your back from Goldstone -- he'll surely accuse Israel of piracy on the high seas.

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Meet the MOBB -- Mother of all Bunker Busters

While US Administration officials hope their amicable diplomacy will convince Iran's mad leader Ahmadinijad to stop his country's quest for nuclear weapons, the Pentagon is already preparing military options.

Last week, the Pentagon requested from Congress (and received approval) to redirect $52 million dollars for the acceleration of purchasing 4 MOP bombs -- Massive Ordnance Penetrators. This 30,000 pound weapon is approximately 31.5 inches in diameter and 20.5 feet long, with about the same amount of explosives inside as Wallis’ Tallboy (5,300 pounds).

These weapons will be needed to help destroy Iran's underground nuclear program.

The warhead case is made from a special high-performance steel alloy, which lets it survive the high-speed impact into a hardened concrete bunker facility. The MOB's design helps it maintain structural integrity during that impact.

20 feet long -- click to see how huge this is...

Remember this post -- you'll be reading about these weapons in the not too far future.

sources: Fox, Defense Industry Daily, rotter.net


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Attack on Iran: A few grains of sand remain in the hourglass

A few grains of sand remain in the hourglass before Israel will be forced to step up to the plate, and deal with Iran's nuclear capability. It appears the United States has failed to get past the mindset of "diplomacy" as Iran races ahead to finalize the final pieces to create a deliverable nuclear weapon.

The weekend Iranian announcement of a uranium enrichment centrifuge facility built underground near the city of Qom (photos here and reports here) is accompanied by taunts from Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that Tehran's announcement was "a blow for Western powers", according to Iranian news agency ILNA.

NPR and ABC News offer the following excuses why the US won't attack the facility:

One: The goal of the U.S. government is not to close this one facility at Qom, but rather to convince the Iranian government to end their nuclear weapons ambitions writ large.

Second: Bombing the facility might only make the Iranians more determined, whereas if Western intelligence agencies catch them violating their agreements every time they cheat -- and this is the third time since 2002 -- the Iranians may conclude, ultimately, that any aspirations for a nuclear weapon are futile.

Point one is a long term goal. Unfortunately, Israel doesn't have the luxury of waiting for diplomacy to fail to convince Iran of ending their quest for nuclear weapons. Iran is literally days to weeks from creating their first bomb.

Point two originates from the failure of Western culture to understand the Middle Eastern mindset. While bombing the facility will definitely annoy the Iranians, it will prevent them from bombing Israel. A few more strikes on their facilities will get them to conclude on their own that maybe a nuclear option isn't in their best interests.

Iran is starting tomorrow, the"Great Prophet 4" 3-4 rocket drill for medium and long range rockets, capable of hitting Israel and Europe. Is it a coincidence that this "exercise" is being conducted in the time frame of Yom Kippur?

My prediction is that Israel will be required to act within an immediate time frame to prevent Iran from succeeding in creating nuclear weapons.

The world will condemn Israel making the Goldstone report look like child's play.

Yet anyone who doesn't relish the idea of nuclear weapons being in the hands of madmen will breathe a sigh of relief.

We'll do the dirty work, get blamed, save our skins, and get lambasted in the court of world opinion.

Its a much better legacy for our children, than no legacy at all.

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The Secret Six

Ari Shavit writes an interesting report in Haaretz today (not available/translated for the English edition) about the responsible leadership of Israel today. In atypical Haaretz fashion, the report flatters the real decision-makers as dedicated and responsible.

Entitled "The Secret Six," Shavit notes that as opposed to the irresponsibility and political infighting that dominated the previous Olmert administration, where policy, objectives and strategy were hurriedly and haphazardly cobbled together by Olmert and Tzippy Livni, Prime Minister Netanyahu has put together an effective, serious team of 6 players that research, weigh, and decide on Israel's most critical decisions.

The team is comprised of Prime Minister Netanyahu, Defense Minister Ehud Barak, Foreign Minister Avigdor Leiberman, and the 3 additional senior Likud Ministers -- Benny Begin, Dan Meridor, and Moshe Yaalon.

According to Haaretz, they routinely meet to discuss the number one issue threatening Israel: Nuclear Iran.

Leaving aside petty politics with zero media leaks, Begin, Meridor and Yaalon arrive at these closed door meetings fully prepared. They have done their homework, researched the topics, read required intelligence reports and they ask the right questions. Shavit adds that Netanyahu the Barak chair the meetings with a surprising level of attention to detail and intellect, and Leiberman contributes much, despite his public image as the power broker -- at these meetings, Leiberman is the thinker.

Every US diplomatic meeting in Middle Eastern countries over the past month have discussed Iran's nuclear program, and one thing is for certain. If Iran goes nuclear, the entire Middle East will follow -- Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Turkey are already poised to accelerate their nuclear programs if Iran succeeds in creating an atomic bomb.

Therefore, these 6 are involved in securing Israel's future. Shavit says America's the 3 phase plan against a Nuclear Iran is a failure 1) Dialog 2) Sanctions 3) Attack.

Dialog is a waste of time and sanctions are too little, too late.

He suggests that the strategic 6 find a creative solution for Israel's security and to get the Obama administration to wake up to the Iranian threat.

Personally, I'm far from a fan of Netanyahu's settlement freeze appeasement policy, yet the existence of this secret 6 inner cabinet is reassuring. While I may not sleep well at night with a nuclear threat from Iran, I do feel much better than when Olmert and Livni were playing little league politics with Israel's future.

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Iranians walk out on "Rabbi" Shimon Peres?

Claiming that Shimon Peres is not a religious leader, the Iranian delegates to the World Interfaith Conference in Kazakhstan walked out when Peres got up to speak.

Peres lectured the forum, "Together with all the Arab leaders, we can realize your vision, our vision and the vision of all the leaders and all believers in our shared god of peace and justice."

Iranian delegates stormed out of the conference hall as Peres began to deliver his speech, and returned only after he finished speaking.

"Peres is not a religious leader; he is a man of violence," one of the Iranian delegates said. (YNET)

I don't know if Peres is a man of violence, but he is absolutely not a religious leader.

Maybe the Iranians weren't that unjustified in their reaction (see what happens when you mix religion and politics?)


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