Attack on Iran: A few grains of sand remain in the hourglass

A few grains of sand remain in the hourglass before Israel will be forced to step up to the plate, and deal with Iran's nuclear capability. It appears the United States has failed to get past the mindset of "diplomacy" as Iran races ahead to finalize the final pieces to create a deliverable nuclear weapon.

The weekend Iranian announcement of a uranium enrichment centrifuge facility built underground near the city of Qom (photos here and reports here) is accompanied by taunts from Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that Tehran's announcement was "a blow for Western powers", according to Iranian news agency ILNA.

NPR and ABC News offer the following excuses why the US won't attack the facility:

One: The goal of the U.S. government is not to close this one facility at Qom, but rather to convince the Iranian government to end their nuclear weapons ambitions writ large.

Second: Bombing the facility might only make the Iranians more determined, whereas if Western intelligence agencies catch them violating their agreements every time they cheat -- and this is the third time since 2002 -- the Iranians may conclude, ultimately, that any aspirations for a nuclear weapon are futile.

Point one is a long term goal. Unfortunately, Israel doesn't have the luxury of waiting for diplomacy to fail to convince Iran of ending their quest for nuclear weapons. Iran is literally days to weeks from creating their first bomb.

Point two originates from the failure of Western culture to understand the Middle Eastern mindset. While bombing the facility will definitely annoy the Iranians, it will prevent them from bombing Israel. A few more strikes on their facilities will get them to conclude on their own that maybe a nuclear option isn't in their best interests.

Iran is starting tomorrow, the"Great Prophet 4" 3-4 rocket drill for medium and long range rockets, capable of hitting Israel and Europe. Is it a coincidence that this "exercise" is being conducted in the time frame of Yom Kippur?

My prediction is that Israel will be required to act within an immediate time frame to prevent Iran from succeeding in creating nuclear weapons.

The world will condemn Israel making the Goldstone report look like child's play.

Yet anyone who doesn't relish the idea of nuclear weapons being in the hands of madmen will breathe a sigh of relief.

We'll do the dirty work, get blamed, save our skins, and get lambasted in the court of world opinion.

Its a much better legacy for our children, than no legacy at all.

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Israel's Intelligence Striptease

Interesting 11 minute video on the reactor which Israel someone bombed in Syria a few months back. These images would have been illegal to broadcast in Israel; due to their extremely sensitive nature Israel's military censor would never allow their publication. Israel's defense establishment worked very hard to obtain this information, yet Israel's Prime Minister wished to earn as many public relation points as possible -- and released them all to the US. (Olmert also bypassed the censor, which is probably illegal in and of itself).

YNET provides an excellent analysis:

The publication of relatively fresh intelligence information is always problematic, but what happened this time can be termed a reckless intelligence striptease. Now, after we praised ourselves in public and boosted our national moral ahead of the 60th Independence Day celebrations, it is time to start monitoring the damage caused by none other than those in charge of classified information security.

Those are the people who explain to us how irresponsible the media are – while they proceed to commit the most severe offences, not to mention turning the military censor into a laughing stock.

Defense officials are now infuriated by the manner and scope of the publication, which exposed our intelligence capabilities. The problem is not with the satellite photos, but rather, with the photos taken in and around the Syrian reactor. We are not talking about mere archive photos, but rather, relatively recent ones taken by someone inside the facility or around it.

It doesn’t matter at all who shot those photos: What we have here is the exposure of capabilities and intelligence sources. We also have a possible exposure of a breach in the Syrian security and intelligence apparatus. The moment these photographs were published, the Syrians were sure to be doing everything in their power to identify and block this breach.

There is no way in the world that an intelligence agency would hand over fresh photos of a target taken by its own agents or other sources to a foreign agency, with the knowledge that these photos will be published internationally almost immediately – as if saying: Look at us, we were here.

Wherever I am, my blog turns towards Eretz Yisrael טובה הארץ מאד מאד