2022 Predictions: The Ringer, ESPN, MLB.com

The Ringer

Michael Baumann: If you've followed The Ringer's baseball coverage for any length of time, you know I'm an absolute flop-sweating freak for the 2015 Blue Jays—and a return to those magical Ontario days is so close I can taste it.

Ben Lindbergh: Look, at a certain point a person gets tired of picking the Dodgers to win the World Series every year. They're still probably the best team in baseball, and they've won pennants in three of the past five seasons, but their age and depth are big enough sources of uncertainty (relative to earlier Dodgers juggernauts) that there's an opening for the new hotness. . . . [The Blue Jays] are gonna be good, so I'm downgrading the Dodgers from championship team to mere runners-up.

Zach Kram: Toronto plays in the toughest division in baseball and just lost the reigning AL Cy Young winner and third-place MVP finisher. Yet I don't care, because Toronto will compensate for those losses and more with the additions discussed above. . . . The Blue Jays will thrill, entertain, and ride their talented lineup and rotation to a victory in a rematch of the 1992 World Series . . .

Bobby Wagner: Far be it from me to question the guarantees of Dave Roberts . . . The Dodgers are pretty clearly the best team in baseball. That doesn't always insulate a team from disaster . . . but this group is virtually flop-proof.

AL MVP

Lindbergh: Shohei Ohtani, Angels. I've picked Ohtani's teammate Mike Trout to be AL MVP in each of the five past seasons, and in 2018, I declared that I'd do so every year until Trout was traded to an NL team or 2024, whichever came first. Trout hasn't been traded, and it's not yet 2024, but I think I can escape my commitment under an act of God clause triggered by Ohtani's divine production. . . . He says he can improve his numbers "across the board" [thanks to] the "Ohtani rule," and batting at the top of the order (protected by Trout). . . . [I]t's hard to imagine a healthy Ohtani not winning this thing again.

Kram: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays. I don't trust that Trout will stay healthy or that Ohtani will replicate the most magical individual season of my lifetime. I do, however, trust that Guerrero will mash once again . . .

Wagner: Mike Trout, Angels. Ohtani did more than earn it last season, as did the runner-up, Guerrero Jr. And I think it's more or less an even toss-up between those three. But as a sign of respect, I'll pencil Trout in from muscle memory one last time.

Baumann: Trout. I'll say this: For the first time since 2013, I considered picking another AL MVP favorite. But only briefly.

NL MVP

Wagner: Francisco Lindor, Mets. It'll take a damn-near-perfect season from Lindor to win MVP in a field this crowded. Just in Lindor's division, there's Juan Soto . . . Bryce Harper . . . Ronald Acuña Jr. . . . So why Lindor? . . . We know this is at least partially a narrative award, and it's a good story for the $341 million man to be humbled by the bright lights of New York and bounce back in his second season to win MVP.

Kram: Mookie Betts, Dodgers. [U]ntil he gives a reason for me to doubt him, I'll just keep picking Betts to become the first player since Frank Robinson to win MVP in both leagues. [E]ven in a relatively lackluster 2021 campaign, Betts was still worth 4.2 WAR in just 122 games—the pace for a near-MVP-level 5.6 wins across 162 games. 

Lindbergh: Juan Soto, Nationals. Soto is more likely to lead the league in WAR—which he nearly did last year—than to win the MVP award . . . Soto's second-half hitting (199 wRC+) may have been MLB's best two-ish months since … well, Soto's 2020 (201 wRC+). The 23-year-old is an offensive savant, and if OBP is life, Soto is its cradle and building blocks.

Baumann: Soto. At some point it'll become conspicuous that Soto hasn't won an MVP yet . . . [E]ventually, we'll understand that this kid with a .432 career OBP—again, for those of you in the back, FOUR (pounds table) THIRTY (pounds table) TWO career OBP—is by far the best hitter in the game right now.

AL Cy Young

Kram: Gerrit Cole, Yankees. He's the safest choice here—especially as he'll pitch in front of a much-improved Yankees defense in 2022.

Lindbergh: Cole. Is it just me, or are most of the sport's impressive starting pitchers now in the National League? Not only is Cole the leading contender for this award, but I don't see a logical case for picking anyone else. . . . I'm not saying Cole will win . . . but the AL is light on no-doubt aces, and after four consecutive top-five finishes (two of which were top-two finishes, including last year's), Cole is the clear favorite.

Wagner: Cole. Every year when I sit down to pick an American League Cy Young winner, I think that Cole's already won one. He deserved it in 2019 and lost to his own teammate, Justin Verlander. . . . With an improved defense behind him, I think this is the year.

Baumann: Shane McClanahan, Rays. Thought about Cole or Bieber, but I didn't want to be boring. Maybe I'm just overawed by the velocity—and for good reason, since McClanahan is the hardest-throwing left-handed starter in the majors. . . . The Rays have a good defense, and are good at developing young pitchers. When Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow were 25—the age McClanahan is now—they both posted ERAs under 2.00. Snell won the Cy Young.

NL Cy Young

Kram: Sandy Alcantara, Marlins. I have to balance my Cole pick in one league with a dark horse in the other. Alcantara might not have the strikeout numbers—just 8.8 Ks per nine innings last season—of most Cy Young hopefuls. But he was quietly excellent in 2021 . . . 

Wagner: Zack Wheeler, Phillies. At the risk of reigniting the quality vs. quantity innings debate of 2021, Wheeler's body of work deserves a Cy Young. He's flying in the face of the most dominant pitching trend in baseball right now: smaller workloads for starters. . . .  [T]here's also still room to reward a dominant pitcher throwing seven-plus innings every time he takes the ball.

Baumann: Carlos Rodón, Giants. I love Rodón's fit in San Francisco: good ballpark, coaching staff well-established as rescuers of former top prospects. . . . [H]e could've won the Cy Young last year if he'd made about six more starts.

Lindbergh: Corbin Burnes, Brewers. It usually takes a little luck to have a Cy Young season, but not in Burnes's case. Burnes somehow won the Cy last season despite underperforming his peripherals and Statcast-based expected stats; his 2.43 ERA was almost 0.8 runs higher than his 1.63 FIP, one of the biggest gaps in the game. I mean:

AL Rookie of the Year

Baumann: Spencer Torkelson, Tigers. The AL rookie record for home runs in a season is 52 . . . Just keep that in mind.

Lindbergh: Bobby Witt Jr., Royals.

Wagner: Witt Jr. 

Kram: Julio Rodríguez, Mariners.

NL Rookie of the Year

Baumann: Max Meyer, Marlins. Meyer is a bit undersized at an even 6 feet, but he throws in the upper 90s with a killer slider and is working on a changeup. 

Lindbergh: Seiya Suzuki, Cubs. The 27-year-old has arguably been the best player in Japan for the past few years . . . Suzuki's offensive output in Japan compares favorably to that of almost every previous player who's made the NPB-to-MLB transition, and he brings a good glove, too. 

Wagner: Suzuki. In most circles, Suzuki is the overwhelming favorite for this award. And why not? He has a long track record of exceptional production in Japan. His bat is the most surefire tool of anyone in the NL rookie field . . . It's not a guarantee that Suzuki will hit 10 to 15 percent better than league average, but it's pretty likely. 

Kram: Suzuki. The sport's top six prospects, according to both FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus, will all play for American League teams; so in a shallow field, I'll pick Suzuki, who is an MLB rookie but accomplished NPB veteran.

Breakout Player

Wagner: Tanner Houck, Red Sox. On the surface, Houck put together a very solid season in 2021: a respectable 2.2 WAR, with a 3.52 ERA in 69 innings. And if you dig in a little deeper, you'll find a 2.58 FIP, a mix of speed and movement on his pitches that Baseball Savant says is reminiscent of 2021 breakout darling Logan Webb, and the fact that Houck scored in the 80th percentile in almost every important Statcast category for a pitcher, including K%, Whiff%, expected ERA, and expected batting average. Is all of this a mirage? Maybe. But when I watch Houck, I see a pitcher with unique arm action who's added almost 2 miles per hour to his fastball since his debut, and whose slider looks impossible for hitters to pick up out of his hand. Translation: a 25-year-old pitching prospect who strikes a ton of guys out and has trimmed his walks significantly. Houck won't be knocking on the door for the Cy Young any time soon, but he's shaping up to be a pretty good no. 2 or 3 starter, should the Red Sox ever get Chris Sale back.

Kram: Nick Madrigal, Cubs. 

Lindbergh: Triston McKenzie, Guardians. 

Baumann: Alejandro Kirk, Blue Jays. The Blue Jays backstop has become a bit of a fan-favorite figure because at 5-foot-8 and 265 pounds, he's shaped like a friend. . . . Kirk isn't some novelty act: He's going to grow up to be a Yuli Gurriel, or maybe a Dmitri Young.

Flop Team

Baumann: Yankees. Right now, I think the AL Wild Card race is about six teams deep: the Rays, Red Sox, Yankees, Twins, Angels, and Mariners. Maybe seven if the Tigers find their magic sooner than expected. Of those teams, the three AL East clubs look a cut above the rest on paper, but in reality, the Red Sox and Yankees are still a little … meh. Maybe the East will get four teams into the playoffs, but one will probably take a few injuries, lose a couple bad intradivision games, and fall out of touch with the pack. Might as well be the Yankees.

Kram: Padres. 

Lindbergh: Phillies. 

Wagner: Twins. 

Surprise Team

Lindbergh: Angels. I just can't quit the team of Ohtani and Trout. I mean, imagine: a healthier Trout, Anthony Rendon, and Patrick Sandoval; full seasons from mid-2021 reinforcements Brandon Marsh, Jo Adell, and Reid Detmers; a better bullpen; a bounceback from David Fletcher; no sub-replacement play from Albert Pujols and Justin Upton; Noah Syndergaard, I guess? This is so the year. Lucy, please prepare to pull the football again.

Wagner: Tigers. 

Kram: Marlins. 

Baumann: Marlins.

ESPN

From 38 ESPN writers, analysts and editors.

AL East: Blue Jays (29 votes), Rays (5), Red Sox (2), Yankees (2)

AL Central: White Sox (34), Twins (4)

AL West: Astros (35), Angels (2), Mariners (1)

AL (Three) Wild Cards: Yankees (30), Red Sox (25), Rays (24), Angels (9), Blue Jays (8), Mariners (5), Twins (4), Tigers (3), White Sox (3), Astros (2), Texas (1)

"Blue Jays, Yankees, Red Sox, Rays. We've chosen all four AL East teams to make the playoffs (there's a rumor the AL East has a fifth team, but that's unconfirmed at press time)."

 AL Champion: Blue Jays (16), White Sox (10), Rays (4), Yankees (4), Red Sox (2), Angels (1), Astros (1)

NL East: Atlanta (28), Mets (8), Phillies (2)

NL Central: Brewers (32), Cardinals (6)

NL West: Dodgers (35), Giants (3)

NL (Three) Wild Cards: Giants (24), Mets (23), Padres (21), Phillies (19), Cardinals (12), Braves (10), Dodgers (2), Brewers (1), Cubs (1), Rockies (1)

NL Champion: Dodgers (27), Brewers (5), Atlanta (4), Giants (1), Mets (1)

World Series Champion: Dodgers (16), Blue Jays (8), White Sox (5), Atlanta (2), Brewers (2), Yankees (2), Red Sox (1), Giants (1), Rays (1)

AL MVP: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (13), Shohei Ohtani (9), Mike Trout (9), Aaron Judge (3), Trevor Story (1), Yordan Alvarez (1), Byron Buxton (1), Luis Robert (1)

NL MVP: Juan Soto (19), Ronald Acuna Jr. (3), Freddie Freeman (3), Austin Riley (3), Trea Turner (3), Francisco Lindor (2), Matt Olson (2), Mookie Betts (1), Nick Castellanos (1), Bryce Harper (1)

AL Cy Young: Gerrit Cole (10), Shane Bieber (8), Lucas Giolito (7), Jose Berrios (6), Dylan Cease (2), Justin Verlander (2), Chris Sale (1), Kevin Gausman (1), Framber Valdez (1)

NL Cy Young: Walker Buehler (21), Max Scherzer (6), Logan Webb (3), Jacob deGrom (2), Aaron Nola (2), Sandy Alcantara (1), Corbin Burnes (1), Zack Wheeler (1), Brandon Woodruff (1)

AL Rookie of the Year: Bobby Witt Jr. (18), Spencer Torkelson (8), Adley Rutschman (3), Riley Greene (2), Julio Rodriguez (2), Gabriel Arias (1), Shane Baz (1), Josh Lowe (1), Gabriel Moreno (1), Jeremy Pena (1)

NL Rookie of the Year: Seiya Suzuki (16), Oneil Cruz (12), Hunter Greene (4), Joey Bart (2), CJ Abrams (1), Edward Cabrera (1), Cade Cavalli (1), Bryson Stott (1)

MLB.com

From a panel of 73 experts:

AL East: Blue Jays

AL Central: White Sox

AL West: Astros

AL Wild Cards: Rays, Red Sox, Yankees

AL champion: Blue Jays

NL East: Braves

NL Central: Brewers

NL West: Dodgers

NL Wild Cards: Giants, Mets, Padres

NL champion: Dodgers

World Series champion: Dodgers

It would have been helpful if MLB.com had provided, as ESPN did, the number of votes received by each team. But that's MLB(.com) for you. Presumably, the Blue Jays received fewer first-place votes than the Dodgers.

A Few Of Jeff Passan's (ESPN) predictions:

Shohei Ohtani's lines:
Batting: .274/.382/.566, 39 home runs, 114 RBIs, 22/25 stolen bases.
Pitching: 25 games started, 145 IP, 102 H, 38 BB, 18 HR, 185 K, 3.06 ERA, 11-6 record.

Juan Soto will post the first non-Barry Bonds season with a .500+ OBP since Ted Williams in 1957.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will win two of the Triple Crown categories: batting average at .322 and RBIs with 133.

The Chicago White Sox will defeat the Los Angeles Dodgers to win their first World Series since 2005.

Re Ohtani: Compared to 2021, that's a higher average, higher on-base, more RBI, a better steal %, more starts, more innings, fewer H/9, fewer W/9, more strikeouts, a lower ERA, and more wins. That would a fucking hell of a season.

Re Soto (who won't turn 24 until the end of October): OBP in his four seasons: .406, .401, .490, .465. He's led MLB in each of the last two seasons; the .490 came in the shortened 2020 season.

2022 Predictions: Boston Globe, USA Today, Athlon, FanGraphs,Yahoo, The Sporting News, Baseball America, Beyond The Box Score

Boston Globe

Random comments:

Peter Abraham: "AL East: Blue Jays. This division will be a rock fight, with four teams capable of winning."

Julian McWilliams: "AL East: Rays. Everyone seems to have hopped on the Blue Jays hype train, but the Rays remain one of the most consistent teams in baseball and thrive during the regular season."

Alex Speier: "AL East: Blue Jays. With Canada's vaccination requirements, they may have the biggest home-field advantage in the history of the sport. . . . October without the Red Sox or Yankees for the first time since 2014? They're certainly talented enough to reach the playoffs, but the AL East seems like the Group of Death."

USA TODAY

AL East

Four of these teams won 90+ games in 2021 but the Blue Jays were the most active in the offseason, acquiring third baseman Matt Chapman and starter Kevin Gausman – albeit to replace Marcus Semien and Robbie Ray. . . . The Rays have won the division two years in a row but didn't do much to upgrade, and have a lot riding on Wander Franco (and his new 11-year, $182 million contract) taking a significant step forward. . . . Yankees fans may have hated the offseason, but the team didn't get significantly worse over the winter. The pitching questions persist but they could get a jolt from new infielders Josh Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. . . . Trevor Story will move to second base for the Red Sox, who swooped in to sign the two-time All-Star and boast one of the best lineups in baseball. . . . The Orioles hope to see top prospect Adley Rutschman soon (but not too soon) and are going to lose 100 games again but have players worth watching in Cedric Mullins and Ryan Mountcastle.

Athlon

AL East

Toronto Blue Jays
Tampa Bay Rays*
New York Yankees*
Boston Red Sox*
Baltimore Orioles

AL Central: White Sox
AL West: Astros
NL East: Atlanta
NL Central: Cardinals
NL West: Dodgers

Postseason Predictions

WC

White Sox over Red Sox; Yankees over Rays
Cardinals over Brewers; Mets over Padres

DS

Astros over Yankees; Blue Jays over White Sox
Dodgers over Brewers; Atlanta over Mets

CS

Astros over Blue Jays; Dodgers over Mets

WS

Dodgers over Astros in 6

AL MVP: Guerrero, Trout, Ohtani (Judge 4, Devers 7)
NL MVP: Harper, Soto, Turner (Mookie 4)

AL Cy Young: Cole, Bieber, Ray
NL Cy Young: Burnes, Buehler, Scherzer

FanGraphs

Yahoo

The Sporting News

The predicted standings are the average wins and losses from 20,000 season simulations.

AL East

Blue Jays   91-71
Rays        87-75
Red Sox     86-76
Yankees     86-76
Orioles     70-92

The AL East is the best division in baseball, and it doesn't take a model to know that. . . . The Sporting News' model sees the Blue Jays as a slim favorite to win the division over the Yankees, Rays and Red Sox, but it expects all four teams to reach the playoffs.

Toronto's lineup . . . is the best in the American League . . . The Rays are that team that is constantly underloved by metrics and subsequently overperforms. The model has them in third in the AL East, but it would surprise no one to see them win the division. . . . The Red Sox surprised some people with their run to the ALCS in 2021, and Boston expects to be back in the mix for the playoffs again . . . Fans of the Yankees are disappointed that New York wasn't able to land any major name in free agency, but that doesn't stop the model from being bullish on the Bronx Bombers' chances to make the playoffs. . . . 

          Division    WC    Miss playoffs

Blue Jays   42.9%   41.1%     16.0%
Rays        22.2%   47.6%     30.2%
Red Sox     18.2%   45.7%     36.1%
Yankees     16.5%   43.3%     40.2%
Orioles      0.1%    1.8%     98.1%

AL Playoff Predictions

First-round byes: White Sox, Astros
Remaining playoff teams: Blue Jays, Rays, Red Sox, Yankees

Team       Win Pennant (10+%)

Blue Jays     16.9%
White Sox     15.2%
Astros        13.9%
Rays          13.0%
Red Sox       12.3%
Yankees       10.8%

NL Playoff Predictions

First-round byes: Dodgers, Braves
Remaining playoff teams: Cardinals, Giants, Mets, Phillies

Team Win Pennant (10+%)

Dodgers       17.4%
Giants        14.2%
Atlanta       14.1%
Mets          12.9%
Cardinals     11.9%
Phillies      10.7%

World Series Prediction

Team Win World Series (5+%)

Dodgers        9.3%
Blue Jays      8.7%
Giants         8.4%
White Sox      7.7%
Rays           7.1%
Astros         7.0%
Atlanta        6.8%
Mets           6.4%
Cardinals      6.0%
Red Sox        5.7%
Yankees        5.2%

Baseball America

National League 

Wild Cards: Cardinals, Giants, Mets

Pennant: Dodgers

MVP: Soto, Acuna, Betts/Freeman/Machado/O'Neill
Cy Young: Scherzer, Buehler, Woodruff

American League 

Wild Cards: Mariners, Rays, Yankees

Pennant: Blue Jays

MVP: Guerrero, Ohtani, Correa/Judge/Ramirez
Cy Young: Cole, Ohtani, Bieber/Berrios/Giolito/Ray

World Series (9 picks)

Dodgers: 5 (over Blue Jays, Blue Jays, Blue Jays, Rays, Rays)

Blue Jays: 2 (over Dodgers, Dodgers)

Rays: 1 (over Mets)
Cardinals: 1 (over Rays)

Which Team Had The Most Disappointing Offseason? 

Yankees. By the end of 2021, it was clear the Yankees were old and injury-prone. With talents like Carlos Correa, Freddie Freeman and Trevor Story on the market, the team instead chose to bring back Anthony Rizzo and trade for Josh Donaldson while also getting weaker offensively at shortstop (Isiah Kiner-Falefa) and catcher (a tandem of Kyle Higashioka and Ben Rortvedt). To add some salt, the Twins used some of the cost savings from shedding Donaldson's contract to sign Correa, while the rival Red Sox spent big for Story. (Josh Norris)

Beyond the Box Score

AL East Picks (posted March 7, 2022)

Andrés Chávez: Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa won't have Tyler Glasnow, who will be recovering from Tommy John surgery, but they have two future aces in Shane McClanahan and Shane Baz, plus the experienced Corey Kluber and an army of talented, versatile arms to round out the staff. Perhaps more importantly, they will have a full season of young phenom Wander Franco (who hit .288/.347/.463 with a 127 wRC+ as a 20-year-old in 2021) to headline the lineup. . . . The Blue Jays may be one big piece away (either an infielder or another impact pitcher) from really challenging the Rays, but the Yankees and Red Sox (two teams that could also bring in some big pieces after the lockout) do seem to be half a step behind.

Kenny Kelly: Toronto Blue Jays

As a longtime Rays disrespecter, they can't keep getting away with it. Eventually, the Rays' miserly approach is going to come back to bite them in the regular season. . . . Someone is going to overtake the Rays, and it might as well be the Blue Jays, the lone 90-win team who missed the playoffs last year. Losing Marcus Semien and Robbie Ray stings, but Toronto has enough there to succeed without them.  . . . Even without Semien, the Jays still have a lineup that should be one of the most productive in the majors. Without Ray, Toronto still has a formidable one-two punch in Gausman and José Berríos.

Matt O’Halloran: Boston Red Sox

This may be a homer pick, but homer picks aren't necessarily bad picks. The Red Sox are bringing back the majority of a roster that just won a Wild Card spot en route to the ALCS, farther than any other AL East team. The losses of Hunter Renfroe and Kyle Schwarber do leave a hole in the lineup, but I would expect an addition to supplement these losses once the lockout ends . . . If Bobby Dalbec's late-season surge (1.047 OPS from 7/29 on) wasn't real, a reinforcement in Triston Casas figures to be in the big leagues this summer. The top of the rotation will be anchored by the formidable 1-2 punch of Nathan Eovaldi and Chris Sale . . . In the end, this division is anybody's (well, except the Orioles). While I doubt they will be widely considered the favorites, the Red Sox will be very competitive in 2022 . . .

Steven Martano:  Toronto Blue Jays

Last year the Jays won 91 games (shockingly only good for fourth place in an uber-competitive division), but based on their run differential of 183, their Pythagorean record was a robust 100-62. Their young core is a year older, and they've upgraded their rotation. No one will argue that Toronto's young players are an unmitigated offensive juggernaut . . . Toronto's pitching was adequate last season, but they've put together a solid rotation going into 2022. . . . The Jays are more balanced and more mature than last season and are poised to take a step forward, winning the AL East for the first time since 1993.

Estevão Maximo: Toronto Blue Jays

[U]nless something extraordinary happens I would give the slight favoritism for the Toronto Blue Jays to win the highly contested AL East. . . . [T]his offense remains one of the five best in baseball with ease. The team that finished with a Pythagorean W-L record of 99-63 last year now has a full season of deadline acquisition José Berrios. One figures that's almost a given that the Rays will outperform their projections in what has become almost a seasonal tradition so they can't ever be ruled out. The Yankees should figure to be in the race as well and I see Boston somewhat behind with too much uncertainty surrounding the staff, but nothing is truly off the table.

Lindy's 2022 Preview: Red Sox Predicted To Finish 4th & Make Postseason

[Note: If anyone is able to send me scans or even cell phone pics of the AL/NL predictions and Red Sox/Yankees previews from the Athlon and/or Street & Smith magazines, that would be great. The store in my small town doesn't carry them.]

AL East

Blue Jays
Yankees
Rays
Red Sox
Orioles

Red Sox

Few teams have had as impressive or dramatic a turn-around as the Red Sox did last year, going from a last-place finish in 2020 to not only making the playoffs but also coming within two wins of capturing the AL pennant. . . .

That type of up-and-down trajectory has been all too common for the franchise. In the last 10 years, the team has won two World Series titles and four AL East crowns, and also finished fifth in the division four separate times. . . .

The floor for this roster is higher than most probably expected after the 2020 disaster. Bloom deserves plaudits for addressing Boston's major problem: pitching. But will the Red Sox owners, now that the team is back on a winning track, re-open their pocketbook to raise the ceiling? With how tough the rest of the East is, it's hard to imagine lightning striking twice without some help on the ground.

Rotation: Last season reminded everyone just how good a healthy Nathan Eovaldi can be. His success in 2020 was built on limiting walks; last year he cut down on home runs, once a persistent issue for him. Eovaldi also benefited from throwing his too-hittable cutter less in favor of more curveballs — his best pitch — and sliders. Chris Sale looked rusty . . . in his return from Tommy John surgery . . . His fastball velocity fluctuated and was down from his pre-injury years. Sale's slider was his only reliable secondary, with his changeup losing some bite. . . . Nick Pivetta took a big step forward . . . doing a better job placing his fastball at the top of the strike zone to set up his elite curveball at the bottom. Pivetta is frustratingly inconsistent and inefficient, but he can be a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter. If Rich Hill can stay healthy, he should be able to help with his ability to throw quality strikes consistently. At age 42, though, he's a five-and-fly guy, and last year's sticky-stuff crackdown took spin off his curveball. Michael Wacha will be the default fifth starter, although he doesn't miss enough bats  . . . Hill or Wacha could give way to Tanner Houck, whose vicious slider and excellent velocity helped him forge a 11.3 K/9 IP rate last year.

Bullpen: Garrett Whitlock [went] from Rule 5 draft pick to postseason relief ace . . . His 96-mph sinker consistently avoids the barrel of bats, and his secondaries missed bats entirely. [He might also be used as a starter this year.] Matt Barnes went from All-Star closer in the first half last year to nonentity in the second, due to a too-heavy workload and a positive COVID diagnosis. Barnes' occasional command issues are frightening . . . Ryan Brasier reemerged as one of Alex Cora's preferred right-handed setup men late last year. However, his high strikeout totals did not make the trip with him. . . . COVID wrecked Josh Taylor's 2020 season, but he didn't miss a beat in his return, racking up whiffs as Boston's top lefty. . . . Hirokazu Sawamura . . . faded late. His virtually unhittable splitter helps make up for shaky command. The rest of his arsenal is so-so.

Catcher: Don't be surprised if this is Christian Vazquez's final season in Boston. After a poor showing at the plate last year and set to turn 32 in August, he appears to be in fast fade. The excessively high BABIP that helped him to a career year in 2020 vanished last year, and in its place was a lot of weak contact. . . . Kevin Plawecki is an able backup, and prospect Connor Wong is about a year away.

Infield: First baseman Bobby Dalbec is a king of two true outcomes: home runs and strikeouts. A second-half surge last year (.269/.344/.611) saved his roster spot, but persistent contact issues keep Dalbec in and out of the lineup. . . . Triston Casas [should get] a look. Kike Hernandez . . . as a hitter is best suited to be a part-time player, but his defense [at second base] makes him a viable starter. . . . Xander Bogaerts is as reliable a hitter as there is in the league. He does it with a blend of patience, contact and power. . . . However, his glove is a problem. Per Statcast, his minus-9 Outs Above Average last year ranked in the low-end percentile among shortstops. Like Bogaerts, Rafael Devers is a foundational franchise piece. No one else on the team boasts the raw power he has, and last year he simultaneously cut down on strikeouts and upped his walk rate. Like Bogaerts, Devers isn't cut out for his position . . .

Outfield: On one hand, [Alex Verdugo is] a patient hitter who avoids excessive whiffs, makes quality contact and can handle fastballs. On the other hand, he struggles to get the barrel on the ball, frequently driving it into the ground. . . . [I]t doesn't add up to as much production as you would expect. . . . Jackie Bradley is a superb center fielder, but he was the worst hitter in MLB last year . . . [T]here's not much reason to expect better from Bradley. . . . The left fielder will be determined during spring training. At the top of the depth chart is Jarren Duran . . . Rob Refsnyder also is available. [With the signing of Trevor Story to play second base, Hernandez will spend most of his time in the outfield.]

Designated Hitter: J.D. Martinez . . . was at the forefront of the team's resurgence [in 2021]. Locking in on fastballs was crucial for Martinez. He went from hitting .184 with a .377 slugging percentage against heaters in 2020 to .270 and .479, respectively, last year. There's no question that Martinez has slipped from his 2015-2019 salad days, but there is no reason to believe he has emptied his MLB tank.

Organization/Management: . . . Alex Cora was back in the manager's chair last year, and it probably was no coincidence that the team flourished again. Cora fosters clubhouse chemistry, and he is a superb motivator and leader. His tactical decision-making is open to debate. Cora sometimes lets his emotions and the moment dictate his strategy. . . . Chaim Bloom [is] a shrewd judge of player talent, has done well revitalizing Boston's farm system, and has turned the team's fortunes around much faster than most would have imagined  . . . It would help Bloom should principal owner John Henry relent on his newfound stinginess.

Yankees

The Yankees were less than the sum of their parts last year. . . . [The MFY] stumbled its way to 92 wins — the Yankees spent less time in first place in the AL East than the Orioles did — and barely made the playoffs. Their postseason stay was short, too, with their hated rival, the Red Sox, easily dispatching them in the Wild-Card game. It's now 12 years and counting without a World Series title or pennant for the Yankees . . .

Along the way, there have been some odd and hard-to-explain stumbles: wrong turns for Gary Sanchez and Gleyber Torres; a refusal to spend beyond the occasional splurge for an upper-echelon player . . . a roster so shallow and inflexible that Rougned Odor and Brett Gardner were counted on for regular playing time last year. . . . [T]he 2021 squad . . . couldn't hit, couldn't field, couldn't stay healthy and couldn't find consistency . . . [T]he Yankees can't act like they don't need help . . .

Rotation: Aside from some panic concerning his spin-rate dip during MLB's sticky stuff crackdown, Gerrit Cole's 2021 season was ace-level. There are some cracks in the foundation — fewer whiffs and less bite on his curveball than in his Houston years — but Cole still pumps fastballs at 98 mph with a strikeout rate better than 30 percent. Jordan Montgomery gave the Yankees unexpected volume and durability . . . grinding out five- and six-inning starts . . . [He] throws strikes (albeit hittable ones) . . . What Luis Severino can contribute after missing essentially three seasons because of elbow and shoulder injuries is anyone's guess. . . . Nestor Cortes was a big surprise last year, racking up quality starts and strikeouts as a fill-in starter. . . .  Domingo German remains a back-end starter with some upside . . . although he needs to locate [his fastball] better . . . Jamison Taillon, recovering from ankle surgery, is due back in April. . . .

Bullpen: Closer Aroldis Chapman . . . struggles to throw strikes regularly, and batters are making plenty of loud contact. . . . Jonathan Loaisiga is a multi-inning weapon in high-leverage situations . . . Chad Green contributes quality late-inning work . . . Clay Holmes was swiped from the Pirates . . . and morphed into a valuable asset. . . .

Catcher: Gary Sanchez crawled his way back toward respectability last season, returning to league-average production offensively. . . . [H]e still ranks as one of the Yankees' big disappointments. . . . [H]e now hits a lot of harmless fly balls and pop-ups . . . [H]e hasn't improved his pitch recognition and continues to flail at off-speed pitches and breaking balls. . . . He remains a poor blocker whose . . . strong arm . . . doesn't make up for his shortcomings. [The MFY finally wised up and traded Mr. Maniloaf, aka the Crouch Potato, to the Twins.] . . . Backup Kyle Higashioka is . . . a weak hitter.

Infield: A balky left knee kept first baseman Luke Voit out of the lineup at times . . . [P]itchers . . . are challenging him with off-speed and breaking stuff, which confounds him. After two miserable years at shortstop, Gleyber Torres is back at second base. . . . [H]e struggles to reach balls hit to his right. Offensively, Torres remains a mystery. . . . Gio Urshela . . . was too aggressive at the plate last season, getting himself out with whiffs and weak ground balls. He no longer looks like a viable regular. DJ LeMahieu . . . didn't make enough quality contact in 2021, and his days as an above-average defender are probably over. . . . [H]is skillset might be in terminal decline.

Outfield: Left fielder Joey Gallo didn't make an impact . . . striking out too much, even by his standards. . . . Just like in 2019, Aaron Hicks spent more of the 2021 season off the field than on it . . . [I]t came with a big downturn in his offense — an increase in whiffs and dip in walks. Advanced metrics indicate Hicks has lost a significant step in center field. . . . Strikeouts will always be part of [Aaron] Judge's game . . . while his defense grades out as average.

Designated Hitter: Giancarlo Stanton . . . comes with routine injury concerns, no defensive or base-running value, and $179 million owed to him over the next six years.

Organization/Management: It's not exactly clear how or why Aaron Boone kept his job after last season . . . He was hammering square pegs into round holes and trying to convince fans and reporters that they fit perfectly. . . . This will be Brian Cashman's 25th year in charge of the Yankees [and] the roster-building of late has not been good enough. . . . [T]he Steinbrenners have reduced the cash flow to a trickle . . . in-house moves - Gleyber Torres' disastrous stint at shortstop, Gary Sanchez's lack of progress, the stop-and-start development of young pitching - haven't panned out.

Scout's Take: . . . If George was still alive, Boone would be gone for sure. George wouldn't like it that they've won the World Series once in the last 21 years. . . They have so much swing-and-miss and all-or-nothing in their lineup. They kind of remind me of a beer-league slow-pitch softball team.

AL Central: White Sox
AL West: Astros
AL WC: Red Sox, Rays, Mariners, Yankees
AL: Champions: White Sox

AL MVP: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays
AL Cy Young: Shane Bieber, Guardians
AL Rookie: Spencer Torkelson, Tigers
AL Manager: Scott Servais, Mariners

NL East: Atlanta
NL Central: Brewers
NL West: Dodgers
NL WC: Cardinals Mets, Padres, Phillies
NL Champions: Dodgers

NL MVP: Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres
NL Cy Young: Zack Wheeler, Phillies
NL Rookie: Alek Thomas, Diamondbacks
NL Manager: Buck Showalter, Mets

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