Showing posts with label predictions and projections 2019. Show all posts
Showing posts with label predictions and projections 2019. Show all posts

October 31, 2019

Looking Back At 2019's Predictions ... Or, Why Baseball Is Smarter (And More Clever) Than Everyone

On October 3, "Postseason Predictions Are (It Is Agreed) A Fool's Errand" collected the opinions of a lot of "experts" as to who would win the World Series.

All of them were wrong, except for one unnamed person at ESPN (numbers are total picks for that team):

ESPN:
NLDS: Dodgers 26, Nationals 4
NLCS: Dodgers 23, Atlanta 3, Nationals 3, Cardinals 1
World Series: Astros 19, Dodgers 6, Twins 1, Nationals 1 [Not named], Cardinals 1, Atlanta 1, Yankees 1
USA Today:
Astros: over Dodgers in 4 ... over Dodgers in 6 ... over Nationals in 5 ... over Atlanta in 6 ... over Atlanta in 6.
CBS Sports:
NLWC: Nationals 4, Brewers 1
NLDS: Dodgers 5
NLDS: Atlanta 5
NLCS: Dodgers 4, Atlanta 1
World Series: Astros 4, Yankees 1
NBC Sports:
NLWC: Nationals 2, Brewers 1
NLDS: Dodgers 3
NLDS: Atlanta 3
NLCS: Atlanta 2, Dodgers 1
World Series: Astros 2, Atlanta 1
Yahoo Sports:
NLDS: Dodgers 5, Nationals 1
NLCS: Dodgers 4, Nationals 1, Atlanta 1
World Series: Astros 5, Dodgers 1
The Sporting News:
NLCS: Atlanta 4, Dodgers 3, Cardinals 1, Nationals 1
World Series: Astros 8, Dodgers 1
Only 1 out of 58 people picked the Nationals (1.7%) to win the World Series. And 43 picked the Astros (74.1%).


But what were people saying way back in the spring?

They weren't saying "Nationals", I'll tell you that. .... Except for:
Alex Speier at the Boston Globe
Bob Nightengale and Gabe Lacques at USA Today
Tom Gatto and Jordan Shusterman at The Sporting News
3 people at ESPN
1 person at NBC
Street & Smith's 2019 Baseball Preview
ALDS: Red Sox over Cleveland; Astros over Yankees
NLDS: Atlanta over Nationals; Cardinals over Dodgers
ALCS: Astros over Red Sox
NLCS: Atlanta over Cardinals
World Series: Astros over Atlanta
Athlon Sports 2019 Baseball Preview
ALCS: Astros over Red Sox
NLCS: Dodgers over Cardinals
World Series: Dodgers over Astros
Lindy's Sports 2019 Baseball Annual
AL Division Winners: Yankees, Cleveland, Astros
NL Division Winners: Nationals, Cardinals, Dodgers
AL Pennant: Astros
NL Pennant: Cardinals
[No World Series pick]
Boston Globe:
ALCS: Red Sox 2, Astros 2, Cleveland 2
NLCS: Cubs 3, Dodgers 2, Nationals 1
World Series: Red Sox 2, Dodgers, 1, Cleveland 1, Astros 1, Nationals 1 [Alex Speier]
Sean McAdam, Boston Sports Journal:
ALCS: Red Sox over Yankees
NLCS: Cubs over Dodgers
World Series: Cubs over Red Sox
AL Cy Young: Gerrit Cole
NL MVP: Anthony Rendon
Jim Bowden, The Athletic:
AL East: Boston Red Sox
MVP: Aaron Judge
Manager of the Year: A.J. Hinch, Astros
Comeback Player of the Year: Gary Sanchez, Yankees
New York Post:
ALCS: Astros 4, Yankees 3
NLCS: Dodgers 3, Nationals 1, Brewers 1, Cardinals 1, Padres 1
World Series: Yankees 2, Astros 1, Brewers 1, Cardinals 1, Padres 1, Dodgers 1
AL MVP: Judge 3, Betts 1, Trout 1, Bregman 1, Stanton 1
MLB.com:
ALCS: Astros 27, Yankees 20, Red Sox 5
NLCS: Dodgers 14, Nationals 12 (26 votes missing)
World Series: Astros 28, Yankees 15 (9 votes missing)
MLB Network Radio:
ALCS: Yankees 11, Astros 7
NLCS: Nationals 6, Cubs 5, Rockies 3, Phillies 2, Dodgers 1, Cardinals 1
World Series: Yankees 10, Astros 6, Rockies 1, Phillies 1
ESPN:
ALCS: Astros 15, Yankees 7, Red Sox 5, A's 3, Cleveland 1
NLCS: Dodgers 10, Nationals 6, Cardinals 4, Phillies 3, Brewers 3, Cubs 2, Atlanta 2, Rockies 1
World Series: Astros 14, Dodgers 4, Yankees 4, Red Sox 3, Nationals 3 [Not listed], A's 2, Cardinals 1
Sports Illustrated:
ALCS: Astros 5, Yankees 2, Red Sox 1, Cleveland 1
NLCS: Nationals 4, Dodgers 2, Brewers 1, Phillies 1, Cubs 1
World Series: Astros 4, Yankees 2, Dodgers 2, Phillies 1
USA Today:
ALCS: Yankees 3, Astros 2, Red Sox 1, Cleveland 1
NLCS: Nationals 3, Dodgers 2, Phillies 1, Cardinals 1
World Series: Nationals 2 [Bob Nightengale, Gabe Lacques], Dodgers 1, Astros 1, Cleveland 1, Cardinals 1, Yankees 1
NBC Sports:
ALCS: Astros 4, Yankees 3
NLCS: Nationals 4, Dodgers 1, Rockies 1, Cardinals 1
World Series: Astros 3, Yankees 2, Dodgers 1, Nationals 1 [Not listed]
Todd Dybas: "The Yankees [have] multiple guys who could hit 40 homers." [No MFY hit more than 38 dongs.]
Tony Andracki: "There's no way the Red Sox will miss the playoffs ..." [Uh-huh.]
CBS Sports:
ALCS: Astros 3, Yankees 2
NLCS: Nationals 3, Cubs 1, Dopdgers 1
World Series: Astros 3, Yankees 2
The Sporting News:
ALCS: Yankees 6, Astros 4, Red Sox 2, Cleveland 1
NLCS: Nationals 4, Cardinals 3, Cubs 2, Brewers 2, Phillies 1, Dodgers 1
World Series: Yankees 4, Astros 2, Nationals 2 [Tom Gatto, Jordan Shusterman], Red Sox 1, Phillies 1, Brewers 1, Dodgers 1
Baseball America
World Series: Dodgers 3, Astros 2, Yankees 2, Red Sox 1 [One pick for Nationals in WS, losing to MFY]

October 3, 2019

Postseason Predictions Are (It Is Agreed) A Fool's Errand

ESPN: "Will the Houston Astros take home their second title in three years? Or can the Los Angeles Dodgers get over the final hurdle and take home their first championship since 1988? Or will it be a surprise team like the Washington Nationals or Minnesota Twins?" (Wait ... ESPN did not mention the Yankees?)

Vote totals of 30 "experts":
NLDS: Dodgers 26, Nationals 4
NLDS: Atlanta 20, Cardinals 10
ALDS: Astros 29, Rays 1
ALDS: Yankees 21, Twins 9
NLCS: Dodgers 23, Atlanta 3, Nationals 3, Cardinals 1
ALCS: Astros 27, Yankees 2, Twins 1
WS: Astros 19, Dodgers 6, Twins 1, Nationals 1, Cardinals 1, Atlanta 1, Yankees 1
Also, ESPN: (a) indicates that one "expert" is picking the A's in the ALDS and (b) did not bother updating Jeff Passan's answer (though the Brewers (wisely) are not mentioned in the NLDS sections):


Jesse Yomtov (USA Today): "Four teams (Astros, Dodgers, Yankees, Twins) won 100 games this year, but one seems to stand out as the favorite to win the World Series."
Bob Nightengale: Astros over Dodgers in 4.
Gabe Lacques: Astros over Dodgers in 6.
Jesse Yomtov: Astros over Nationals in 5.
Scott Boeck: Astros over Atlanta in 6.
Steve Gardner: Astros over Atlanta in 6.
Matt Snyder (CBS Sports): "One month of playoff baseball awaits ... As usual, it's worth noting that baseball is pretty unpredictable and we're bound to miss a few. Then you get to yell at us ..."

Everyone except ESPN has individual picks, but I'm going to summarize:
ALWC: Athletics 3, Rays 2 (start yelling!)
NLWC: Nationals 4, Brewers 1
ALDS: Astros 5
ALDS: Yankees 5
NLDS: Dodgers 5
NLDS: Atlanta 5
ALCS: Astros 4, Yankees 1
NLCS: Dodgers 4, Atlanta 1
WS: Astros 4, Yankees 1
Craig Calcaterra (NBC Sports): "The playoffs are weaponized randomness. The one-and-done Wild Card games are like Russian roulette, only with worse odds. ... Picking playoff winners is a fool's errand. Luckily, we here at HardballTalk are not afraid to look foolish."
ALWC: Rays 3
NLWC: Nationals 2, Brewers 1
ALDS: Astros 3
ALDS: Yankees 3
NLDS: Dodgers 3
NLDS: Atlanta 3
ALCS: Astros 3
NLCS: Atlanta 2, Dodgers 1
WS: Astros 2, Atlanta 1
Yahoo Sports: "It's a fool's errand to predict what's going to happen in postseason baseball. Nine times out of 10, you're setting yourself up to be completely wrong because the unpredictable nature of baseball is, in fact, what makes it so fun."

Yahoo's picks are in blue font on a purple background (nicked, I'm guessing, from an old Geocities site from 1996).
ALDS: Astros 6
ALDS: Twins 3, Yankees 3
NLDS: Atlanta 5, Cardinals 1
NLDS: Dodgers 5, Nationals 1
ALCS: Astros 5, Yankees 1
NLCS: Dodgers 4, Nationals 1, Atlanta 1
WS: Astros 5, Dodgers 1
The Sporting News: "The field is set, October is here. Let's have some fun. ... [P]ostseason predictions [are] a bit of a fool's errand, but we're here to offer our thoughts anyway."
ALCS: Astros 9 (over Yankees 6, Twins 3)
NLCS: Atlanta 4, Dodgers 3, Cardinals 1, Nationals 1
WS: Astros 8, Dodgers 1

March 28, 2019

G1: Mariners 12, Red Sox 4


Red Sox  - 110 002 000 -  4 11  2
Mariners - 034 012 20x - 12 12  2
Psst .... the Red Sox also lost on Opening Day last season. It did not seem to affect them all that much.*

The first 1.5 innings went according to plan, with the Red Sox scoring a single run in each of the first two innings and Chris Sale striking out the side in the first and retiring the leadoff man in the second. After that ... bad things happened, and often. The 12 runs were the most ever allowed on Opening Day by a team that won the World Series the previous fall.

The Mariners belted five home runs (something they did not do in any game last year), with Tim Beckham tagging Sale (3-6-7-2-4, 76) twice. Beckham entered the game 0-for-15 (with nine strikeouts) in his career against Sale, who actually allowed three dongs (he did not do that in any of his 27 starts last season).

The seven runs surrendered by Sale tied his career-worst in a Red Sox uniform. After Beckham went deep in the second, Sale got the second out, but then gave up a walk and single to the bottom two hitters in the Mariners' lineup and he hit Mitch Haniger. Domingo Santana doubled into the right field corner, scoring two runs. Haniger tried to score from first and was thrown out, a call that was upheld after Seattle challenged it.

Sale gave up four runs in the third. Edwin Encarnacion homered to lead off the inning. Ryon Healy walked with one out and Beckham went yard again. Mallex Smith then tripled and scored on a sac fly. Healy homered in the fifth off Velazquez, who left the bases loaded for Heath Hembree in the sixth. Hembree walked Jay Bruce to force in a run and another run scored on an error. Santana belted a two-run dong in the seventh off Thornburg.

The start of the game was nice. Although Andrew Benintendi grounded out to first on the first pitch of the day, Mookie Betts, Rafael Devers, and J.D. Martinez all singled, giving the Red Sox a 1-0 lead. Eduardo Nunez reached on an infield error to start the second. Jackie Bradley grounded a single into center. With Christian Vazquez batting, Boston pulled off a double steal without a throw. Vaz struck out, but Nunez was able to score on Benintendi's pop-out to shallow left. Third baseman Healy had his back to the plate when he caught the ball.

After that, there was not much from the bats. Xander Bogaerts doubled with two outs in the third. Mitch Moreland walked, but Nunez struck out. Singles by Betts and Martinez in the fifth went for naught.

Nunez doubled to left-center to open the sixth. He went to third on a balk - Vazquez asked for time, the plate umpire refused, but Marco Gonzales (5.1-9-4-1-4, 94), thinking time had been granted (since it almost always is), stopped mid-motion). Vazquez shot a double to the base of the wall in left and, after a pitching change, he scored on Benintendi's single to right. Seattle's lead had been cut to 8-4, and a sliver of hope might have been sighted. But Betts flied to center and Devers looked downright ugly on a three-pitch strikeout. He swung and missed at three fastballs. The first one actually hit him, the second was down the middle, and the third one was up and away.

Everyone in the Boston lineup had at least one hit, except for Moreland (who walked).

More from the bright side: Dave O'Brien did not annoy me even once today.**

*: The 2004 and 2007 teams also started their seasons 0-1.

**: That's because ESPN broadcast the game.

Chris Sale / Marco Gonzales
Benintendi, LF
Betts, RF
Devers, 3B
Martinez, DH
Bogaerts, SS
Moreland, 1B
Nunez, 2B
Bradley, CF
Vazquez, C
The Boston Red Sox's 119th season starts today!

Rafael Devers, 22 years old, batted .385 with a .954 OPS in spring training, will be Boston's #3 hitter. In the words of manager Alex Cora:
I challenged him and he did a good job. ... He hung in there with lefties. He creates balance. Maybe with Steve Pearce being hurt it's a little bit different. When Steve is healthy, he'll hit third against lefties and we'll decide what we'll do with the rest of the lineup. Steve is not here, Rafael did a good job, so go get them, kid.
Cora:
If we do what we set out to do, people are going to be talking about this group forever and that's cool. We talked about it [Tuesday], in the era that we are it's very difficult to have so many guys who have played in the World Series back on one team. I don't want to make a big story out of it. I hate talking about next year. But we know where we're at (with free agents) ... Hopefully they're all back but some of them won't be. It's a pretty close group. [Tuesday] that was the message. We have a chance to do something special, very special. ... I think baserunning is going to better earlier this year than last year. Last year we were awful. But I think they understand that part of the game now and every out counts so offensively baserunning wise I think is something we feel is an advantage for us so we'll be better.
Xander Bogaerts:
I think if everyone does their job and does similar to what they did last year, we'll be in a good place. But it ain't easy, man. It ain't easy repeating. In 2014 (after winning it all in 2013), we had a bad year. I don't think we even had a winning record. But this is a better team. This is a talented team. Hopefully we have something good for a long run. ... [W]e have pretty much the same team. All these guys know each other well. The guys we traded for at the deadline are also here, with Nate and Pearce. That was huge for us during the season and also in the playoffs. ... It's not something you can do easily but I think we have the team to do it.
Red Sox chairman Tom Werner:
The best you can hope for is you get into the postseason and then I think you have eight very evenly matched teams. I think we were very, very fortunate. We rolled over three very good teams. There's a degree of good fortunate and randomness to it. Statistically it's very hard.
J.D. Martinez:
Everything has to go right. No. 1 is starting with health, keeping your 25 guys healthy for an entire season ... To be able to keep that and then once you get into the playoffs it's a different animal. The timings gotta be right. Everyone's gotta be clicking on the right cylinders. You need those big hits. ... Baseball is a weird game, you know? You can do everything right and the ball bounces one way and you lose. So it's not easy.
Principal owner John Henry:
If you see what is going on behind the scenes, especially last year, I don't think that we had a lot of good fortune. There were a lot of things going on behind the scenes that were really smart last year. I do feel that you have to have some good fortune.
David Price:
[A] lot of teams make a lot of improvements to their teams in the offseason and you're playing almost a month more of baseball than everybody else, so your offseason is a little bit shorter. ... [T]he World Series hangover. I don't know. I don't think a lot of guys in our clubhouse have been through that. I guess we'll find out.
Chris Sale:
[Cora] wins championships. Back-to-back World Series champion [2017 Astros, 2018 Red Sox]. You talk to some of the Houston guys, too, they'll have nothing but really, really good things to say about him. He makes it fun. He can light a fire underneath you. He holds it down. He's an unbelievable leader. With any team that is great, they have to have a great leader. There's no question that he's that.
Dustin Pedroia:
[Repeating is] the toughest thing in sports. You're the hunted and everyone is coming after you. Every game you play, you have to be on top of your game and be the best. We're ready for that. We're excited. Just seeing the look on some of our guys' faces, I saw most of them come up in '14. Some of them took their lumps, know what I mean? We all did as a team. Just remembering those times and then seeing them celebrate and be on the best team in the world [last October], that was the best part for me to see ... how happy they were in what they accomplished.
2019 AL East Predictions Wrap-Up (number of votes):
MLB.com:             Yankees 35, Red Sox 17
MLB Network Radio :  Yankees 11, Red Sox  7
ESPN:                Yankees 16, Red Sox 14, Rays  1
Sports Illustrated:  Yankees  7, Red Sox  2
The Sporting News:   Yankees  9, Red Sox  4
NBC Sports:          Yankees  7, Red Sox  0
CBS Sports:          Yankees  3, Red Sox  2
USA Today:           Yankees  5, Red Sox  2
New York Post:       Yankees  5, Red Sox  2
Boston Globe:        Red Sox  3, Yankees  3
Sneaking in under the wire with some 2019 predictions is Sean McAdam of the Boston Sports Journal:
AL East: Red Sox
Other Divisions: Twins, Astros, Nationals, Cubs, Dodgers
ALCS: Red Sox over Yankees
NLCS: Cubs over Dodgers
World Series: Cubs over Red Sox

AL MVP: Mike Trout
AL Cy Young: Gerrit Cole
AL ROY: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
AL MOY: Rocco Baldelli

NL MVP: Anthony Rendon
NL Cy Young: Walker Buehler
NL ROY: Fernando Tatis Jr.
NL MOY: Davey Martinez
And: I now live on the west coast - three time zones away from where I watched last year's World Series (and, actually, spent my entire life) - and I'm extremely curious how the change in game times will feel ... and how many games I will realize with a start have already begun (without me).

Night games will start at 4/5:00 PM, weekend day games will be at 10:30 AM, and I'll have to set an alarm to get up for the Patriots Day game (8:00 AM!). Of course, generally speaking, thi si snot so strange - a fair amount of readers have always been in this (or a similar) boat.

I'm going to continue using Boston time in post titles, though, and hope I don't get too confused.

So without further ado ...

March 27, 2019

2019 Predictions: The Athletic, Boston Herald, NY Post

Jim Bowden, The Athletic:
AL East

Boston Red Sox - Predicted finish: 1st

Pitching: The Red Sox just extended their ace, Chris Sale, which bodes well for their medical staff's view of his health going forward. ... [T]he Red Sox have the best starting rotation in the division. Their bullpen is loaded with power arms, but no experienced impact closer ... However, they're confident that Matt Barnes can successfully take over as closer after watching him succeed in high-leverage situations last year, and they think Ryan Brasier can successfully move into Barnes' old role. The X-factor this summer could be rookie left-hander Darwinzon Hernandez, who throws 100 mph with one of the game's top spin rates on his breaking ball.

Offense: The Red Sox have one of the most balanced and deepest lineups in the game, with a tremendous combination of speed and power. ...

Defense: The Red Sox also have the best defensive outfield in the sport, with three centerfielders manning the outfield position: Benintendi in left, Jackie Bradley Jr. in center and Betts in right. The trio combined for a 17.6 WAR last year.

Big Picture: The Red Sox were able to bring back practically the entire team from last year, outside of Kimbrel and Joe Kelly. The bullpen's ability to close games and succeed in high-leverage innings will probably be the determining factor in whether the Red Sox can repeat as champions.

New York Yankees - Predicted finish: 2nd (1st wild card)

Pitching: The Yankees had an immediate setback this spring when their ace, Luis Severino, was shut down with right shoulder tendinitis. He is not expected to return until sometime in May. ... The Yankees bullpen, when healthy, is the best in baseball. ... Dellin Betances will start the year on the IL with a sore shoulder ...

Offense: The Bronx Bombers will live up to their name again this season; they have the most powerful lineup in baseball ... Gary Sanchez, my pick for comeback player of the year, should lead all catchers in dingers.

Defense: The Yankees will miss center fielder Aaron Hicks, who is starting the year on the injured list with back issues after agreeing to a seven-year, $70 million contract. ... Overall, the team is in the top third of the league defensively. ... The left side of the infield could be an issue for New York, as both Andújar (who is still developing his consistency) and Troy Tulowitzki (dealing with a lack of range at this point in his career) are likely to be below-average defensively.

Big Picture: The Yankees will need a healthy Luis Severino and Dellin Betances if they want to catch the Red Sox this year. ...

AL East: Red Sox, Yankees*, Rays, Blue Jays, Orioles
AL Central: Cleveland, Twins, White Sox, Tigers, Royals
AL West: Astros, Athletics*, Angels, Mariners, Rangers

MVP: Aaron Judge
Cy Young: Gerrit Cole
Rookie of the Year: Yusei Kikuchi, Mariners
Executive of the Year: Brian Cashman, Yankees
Manager of the Year: A.J. Hinch, Astros
Comeback Player of the Year: Gary Sanchez, Yankees
Bowden also wrote up the NL:
NL East: Nationals, Mets, Phillies, Atlanta, Marlins
NL Central: Cubs, Brewers*, Cardinals , Pirates, Reds
NL West: Rockies, Dodgers*, Padres, Diamondbacks, Giants

MVP: Nolan Arenado
Cy Young: Walker Buehler
Rookie of the Year: Victor Robles, Nationals
Executive of the Year: Matt Klentak, Phillies
Manager of the Year: Bud Black, Rockies
Comeback Player of the Year: Corey Seager, Dodgers
Michael Silverman, Boston Herald:
AL MVP: Trout (Alternates: Betts, Bregman, Lindor)
AL Cy Young: Cole (Alternates: Bauer, Sale, Kluber)
AL ROY: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Alternates: Eloy Jimenez, Yusei Kikuchi, Josh James)
AL Manager: Rocco Baldelli, Twins

NL MVP: Arenado (Alternates: Bryant, Machado, Goldschmidt)
NL Cy Young: Scherzer (Alternates: deGrom, Buehler, Syndergaard)
NL ROY: Victor Robles (Alternates: Fernando Tatis Jr., Peter Alonso, Touki Toussaint)
NL Manager: Gabe Kapler, Phillies
New York Post
AL East
Ken Davidoff        - Yankees, Red Sox*, Rays, Blue Jays, Orioles
George A. King III  - Red Sox, Yankees*, Rays, Blue Jays, Orioles
Kevin Kernan        - Red Sox, Yankees*, Rays*, Blue Jays, Orioles
Mike Puma           - Yankees, Red Sox*, Rays, Blue Jays, Orioles
Joel Sherman        - Yankees, Red Sox*, Rays, Blue Jays, Orioles
Mike Vaccaro        - Yankees, Red Sox*, Rays, Blue Jays, Orioles
Dan Martin          - Yankees, Red Sox*, Rays, Blue Jays, Orioles
(*: Wild Card Team)
AL East: Yankees 5, Red Sox 2
AL Central: Cleveland 4, Twins 3
AL West: Astros 7

NL East: Nationals 5, Phillies 2
NL Central: Brewers 4, Reds 2, Cardinals 1
NL West: Dodgers 6, Padres 1

AL Champions: Astros 4, Yankees 3
NL Champions: Dodgers 3, Nationals 1, Brewers 1, Cardinals 1, Padres 1
World Series Champions: Yankees 2, Astros 1, Brewers 1, Cardinals 1, Padres 1, Dodgers 1

AL MVP: Judge 3, Betts 1, Trout 1, Bregman 1, Stanton 1
NL MVP: Arenado 2, Acuna 1, Soto 1, Yelich 1, Goldschmidt 1, Machado 1

AL Cy Young: Sale 4, Cole 2, Verlander 1
NL Cy Young: Scherzer 4, deGrom 1, Nola 1, Strasberg 1

AL ROY: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 5, Eloy Jimemez 2
NL ROY: Victor Robles 4, Pete Alonso 1, Fernando Tatis Jr. 1

Joel Sherman, on the American League East:

1. Yankees - Over/Under win total: 97
Key player: James Paxton. He was important anyway, but with the loss of Luis Severino for at least a month and the season-opening absence of CC Sabathia as well, Paxton simply can't be Sonny Gray redux — an AL West ace who flames out in New York. ...

Player who'll need to step up: Gary Sanchez. ... Last year he batted .186, the worst ever by a Yankee with at least 350 plate appearances. ...

Biggest question mark: The rotation depth will be challenged from the outset with Severino and Sabathia sidelined. Luis Cessa and Domingo German are going to have to hold serve from the mound and Troy Tulowitzki at short until injured players return.

How it'll go down: The past four champs — Royals, Cubs, Astros and Red Sox — have been built around young, starry, positional cores. The Yankees have such a group. It can be their time.
2. Red Sox - Over/Under win total: 94
Key player: Chris Sale. When healthy, Sale is on the short list for best starter in the majors. But he has not been right late in each of the last two seasons, including two second-half injured list stints for shoulder inflammation last year. The rest of the rotation ... is strong, but the depth is not, so Sale's availability is vital.

Player who'll need to step up: Ryan Brasier. ... The Red Sox have stated belief in Braiser and Matt Barnes. The ability to become the first repeat champs since the 1998-2000 Yankees hinges on finding the right late-game formula.

Biggest question mark: Beyond the obvious relief conundrum, the Red Sox will have to avoid the physical/mental letdown that has beset recent champions.

How it'll go down: Aside from Kimbrel, Boston is returning a championship roster headed by AL MVP Mookie Betts. The Red Sox are good enough to repeat ...
Re "the physical/mental letdown that has beset recent champions": I have to point out that the most recent champion - the 2017 Astros, who won 101 games and the World Series  - actually won two more games (103) in 2018.

AND:

The Athletic:
As​ we did last​ season, this spring The Athletic​ had​ our beat​ writers​ ask as​ many players​ as​ they could​​ — about a third of the league overall, including players from all 30 teams — about a wide range of topics. ... [E]ven when granted anonymity, some players declined to discuss a few of the more controversial topics, so the players who did answer had a bigger say in the results.

1. Who is the most intimidating pitcher in the game?
Max Scherzer, Nationals (38.7%), Chris Sale (18.5%), Aroldis Chapman (11%)
On Scherzer: "I don't think there are many of them left that will throw at you and don't give a shit."

On Sale: "Two weeks before we even played the Red Sox, (teammates) were looking to see if Sale lined up against us. I'm like, 'I've never seen that.' These guys were like, 'Shit.'"
2. Who is the most intimidating hitter in the game?
Mike Trout, Angels (40.2%), Aaron Judge (12.6%), J.D. Martinez (7.5%), Giancarlo Stanton (6.3%)
On Trout: "He's going to end up being the best player ever, and we're watching him, taking him for granted."
4. Who is the most underrated player in the game?
Anthony Rendon, Nationals (11.4%), Paul Goldschmidt (8.9%), DJ LeMahieu (5%), Nick Markakis (4.4%)

5. Who is the most overrated player?
Bryce Harper, Phillies (62%), Marcus Stroman (4.1%)
On Harper: "It's marketing. It's star power. But what has he done besides have one year?"
8. Which manager (aside from your own) would you least want to play for?
Gabe Kapler, Phillies (18.3%), Joe Maddon (16.1%), Buck Showalter (7.5%), Mike Scioscia (6.5%)
On Maddon: "His glasses weird me out."

On [Aaron] Boone: "I was a Sox fan in '03 when he hit that home run off Tim Wakefield."
11. Do you think there has been collusion among teams that has affected free agency?
Yes: 40%, No: 17%, Don't know: 43%

12. Do you think there will be a work stoppage when the current CBA expires?
Yes: 28.6%, No: 25%, Don’t know: 46.4%

13. Do you think MLB should ban the shift?
Yes: 17.4%, No: 77.2%, Don't know/no opinion: 5.4%

14. Should the DH expand to the National League?
Yes: 37.7%, No: 58.6%, Don't know/no opinion: 3.5% ...

18. Who is the dirtiest player in the game?
Manny Machado, Padres (64.8%), Chase Utley (9.3%) "even if he is retired"

2019 Predictions: MLB.com, MLB Radio Network, USA Today, The Sporting News, Baseball America

MLB.com
What does the 2019 season have in store? Will the Red Sox be able to repeat as World Series champions? Or will other American League powerhouses overtake Boston? Will the Dodgers again reign in the National League, or will one of a number of improved Senior Circuit teams capture the pennant?

We polled more than 50 experts from the MLB.com and MLB Network universe for predictions ...

AL East: Yankees 35, Red Sox 17 (Estimated based on "the Yanks garnered twice as many votes as the Red Sox")
AL Central: Cleveland 40, Twins 12
AL West: Astros 52
AL Wild Cards: Red Sox, Rays

NL East: Nationals 27, Phillies 25
NL Central: Cubs 19, Cardinals 17, Brewers 16
NL West: Dodgers 42, Rockies 11 (One extra vote in here?)
NL Wild Cards: Brewers, Phillies

AL Champions: Astros 27, Yankees 20, Red Sox 5
NL Champions: Dodgers 14, Nationals 12 (What about the other 26 votes?)
World Series champions: Astros 28, Yankees 15 (What about the other 9 votes?)

Also: "Should Los Angeles reach the World Series, it would mark only the fourth time in MLB history a club has gotten to the Fall Classic after losing the previous two years (also the 1909 Tigers, the 1913 Giants, and the 1923 Yankees, with the Yankees the only club to win on the third try)."
MLB Network Radio
AL East: Yankees 11, Red Sox 7
AL Central: Cleveland 13, Twins 5
AL West: Astros 18
AL Wild Cards: Red Sox 11, Yankees 6, Twins 5, Rays 4, Angels 4, Cleveland 3, Athletics 1, Mariners 1

NL East: Nationals 14, Phillies 3, Mets 1
NL Central: Cubs 11, Cardinals 5, Brewers 2
NL West: Dodgers 10, Rockies 8
NL Wild Cards: Phillies 8, Dodgers 6, Cardinals 6, Nationals 4, Rockies 4, Brewers 3, Cubs 2, Mets 2

AL Champions: Yankees 11, Astros 7
NL Champions: Nationals 6, Cubs 5, Rockies 3, Phillies 2, Dodgers 1, Cardinals 1
World Series champions: Yankees 10, Astros 6, Rockies 1, Phillies 1
USA Today
AL East: Yankees 5, Red Sox 2
AL Central: Cleveland 6, Twins 1
AL West: Astros 7
AL Wild Cards: Red Sox 5, Rays 4, Yankees 2, Angels 1, Twins 1, Cleveland 1

NL East: Phillies 4, Nationals 3
NL Central: Cubs 3, Cardinals 3, Brewers 1
NL West: Dodgers 7
NL Wild Cards: Cardinals 3, Nationals 2, Phillies 2, Atlanta 2, Brewers 2, Rockies 2, Cubs 1

AL Champions: Yankees 3, Astros 2, Red Sox 1, Cleveland 1
NL Champions: Nationals 3, Dodgers 2, Phillies 1, Cardinals 1
World Series Champions: Nationals 2, Dodgers 1, Astros 1, Cleveland 1, Cardinals 1, Yankees 1

AL MVP: Bregman 3, Trout 2, Stanton 2
NL MVP: Goldschmidt 3, Acuna 3, Bryant 1

AL Cy Young: Cole 3, Sale 2, Verlander 1, Kluber 1
NL Cy Young: Scherzer 3, deGrom 2, Nola 2

AL ROY: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 4, Eloy Jiminez 2, Jesus Luzardo 1
NL ROY: Victor Robles 5, Pete Alonso 1, Touki Toussaint 1
FiveThirtyEight

Here are the six teams that are given more than a 5% chance of winning the World Series:
          W-L    RunDiff   Win Div  Make PS  Win WS
Yankees  97-65     +147      47%      82%      13%
Red Sox  95-67     +131      39%      76%       9%
The Rays have a 12% chance of winning the AL East (which seems high).

The Sporting News
AL East: Yankees 9, Red Sox 4
AL Central: Cleveland 10, Twins 3
AL West: Astros 13
AL Wild Cards: Red Sox 6, Rays 3, Angels 3, Athletics 2, Yankees 2

NL East: Nationals 8, Phillies 4
NL Central: Cardinals 7, Brewers 3, Cubs 2
NL West: Dodgers 12
NL Wild Cards: Phillies 5, Cubs 4, Brewers 2, Atlanta 2, Rockies 1, Cardinals 1, Nationals 1

AL Champions: Yankees 6, Astros 4, Red Sox 2, Cleveland 1
NL Champions: Nationals 4, Cardinals 3, Cubs 2, Brewers 2, Phillies 1, Dodgers 1
World Series Champions: Yankees 4, Astros 2, Nationals 2, Red Sox 1, Phillies 1, Brewers 1, Dodgers 1

AL MVP: Trout 7, Judge 4, Bregman 1, Ramirez 1
NL MVP: Harper 3, Goldschmidt 2, Acuna 2, Aguilar 1, Arenado 1, Hoskins 1, Soto 1

AL Cy Young: Sale 6, Cole 3, Verlander 2, Kluber 1, Bauer 1
NL Cy Young: Scherzer 7, deGrom 2, Syndergaard 1, Flaherty 1

AL ROY: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 6, Eloy Jiminez 2, Yusei Kukuchi 1
NL ROY: Victor Robles 3, Pete Alonso 1, Nick Senzel 1, Chris Paddack 1
Baseball America
AL East: Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Blue Jays, Orioles
Other Divisions: Cleveland, Astros, Nationals, Cubs, Dodgers
Wild Cards: Red Sox, Angels, Atlanta, Brewers

World Series Champions
Teddy Cahill   - Red Sox over Dodgers in 4 games
Justin Coleman - Astros over Brewers in 6 games
J.J. Cooper    - Astros over Dodgers in 7 games
Carlos Collazo - Dodgers over Yankees in 7 games
Matt Eddy      - Dodgers over Astros in 6 games 
Josh Norris    - Dodgers over Astros in 6 games
Kyle Glaser    - Yankees over Cardinals in 6 games
Kegan Lowe     - Yankees over Nationals in 5 games
AL MVP Top 3: Trout, Betts, Bregman
NL MVP Top 3: Arenado, Acuna Jr., Rendon

AL Cy Young Top 3: Verlander, Sale, Cole
NL Cy Young Top 3: Scherzer, Nola, deGrom

AL ROY Top 3: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Eloy Jimenez, Yusei Kikuchi
NL ROY Top 3: Fernando Tatis Jr., Nick Senzel, Victor Robles

Red Sox

Team Strengths: The homegrown outfield of Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi and Jackie Bradley Jr. remains arguably baseball's best, while mashing designated hitter J.D. Martinez and every member of October's starting rotation return as well.

Team Weaknesses: The Red Sox's bullpen needed help from the starters to get through the postseason, and now setup man Joe Kelly and closer Craig Kimbrel departed as free agents. ...

What They Did About It: The Red Sox relied exclusively on minor signings to try improve their relief corps. Ryan Weber, Erasmo Ramirez and Carson Smith signed minor league deals, and Colten Brewer was acquired in a trade with the Padres. Jenrry Mejia, who was reinstated from his lifetime ban last summer and hasn't pitched in the majors since 2015, was to signed a minor league deal as well.

Final Outlook: The Red Sox's bullpen has a lot of questions marks, but with mostly every major contributor to the lineup and starting rotation back, the defending champions should return to the postseason.

Yankees

Team Strengths: Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks and Brett Gardner all return in an elite outfield group, with Jacoby Ellsbury and onetime top prospect Clint Frazier also available if they can prove they're past their injuries. The rotation received a boost with the trade for James Paxton and re-signing of J.A. Happ, and an elite bullpen became even better after Zack Britton re-signed and Adam Ottavino came aboard.

Team Weaknesses: At first base, Greg Bird continues to struggle to stay healthy and Luke Voit needs to prove last season wasn't a fluke. At third base, Miguel Andujar needs to improve his defense. Even so, the Yankees' weaknesses are stronger than nearly any other team's.

What They Did About It: The Yankees improved their overall infield depth with the signings of Troy Tulowitzki and DJ LeMahieu. In addition to helping the middle infield until Didi Gregorius returns, Tulowitzki and LeMahieu are capable of playing third base as well, allowing Andujar to shift to first base if Voit and Bird struggle.

Final Outlook: The Yankees took a 100-win team and made it stronger and deeper. The franchise's first World Series appearance since 2009 is in play.

2019 Predictions: Sports Illustrated, ESPN, NBC Sports, CBS Sports

Sports Illustrated
AL East: Yankees 7 votes, Red Sox 2
AL Central: Cleveland 8, Twins 1
AL West: Astros 9
AL Wild Cards: Red Sox 7, Rays 3, A's 3, Yankees 2, Twins 1, Angels (1

NL East: Nationals 7, Phillies 2
NL Central: Cubs 4, Brewers 3, Cardinals 2
NL West: Dodgers 9
NL Wild Cards: Phillies 6, Mets 4, Cardinals 3, Cubs 2, Brewers 1

AL Champions: Astros 5, Yankees 2, Red Sox 1, Cleveland 1
NL Champions: Nationals 4, Dodgers 2, Brewers 1, Phillies 1, Cubs 1
World Series Champions: Astros 4, Yankees 2, Dodgers 2, Phillies 1

AL MVP: Trout 5, Judge 2, Bregman 1, Ramirez 1
NL MVP: Arenado 3, Acuna 3, Soto 1, Harper 1, Rendon 1
AL Cy Young: Sale 3, Bauer 1, Snell 1, Clevinger 1, Cole 1, Berrios 1
NL Cy Young: Scherzer 3, deGrom 2, Nola 2, Buehler 1, freeland 1
AL ROY: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 4, Eloy Jimenez 3, Josh James 1 (one vote missing?)
NL ROY: Victor Robles 4, Pete Alonso 2, Fernando Tatís Jr. 1, Nick Senzel 1

Emma Baccellieri previews both the Yankees and Red Sox

Yankees

2018 finish: 100–62, lost in ALDS to Red Sox
2019 prediction: 99–63, First in AL East

Movin' On Up! ... Aaron Hicks ... finally put all the pieces together at the plate in an injury-marred half-season in 2017, and he matched this performance in an almost-but-not-quite-full-season in 2018. In 137 games last year, Hicks amassed 4.7 Baseball-Reference WAR, seventh-highest of any outfielder. ... Hicks just might be one of baseball's best leadoff hitters, and an entire year of solid play can cement that.

Sell! Brett Gardner's performance dipped last year after struggling to elevate the ball. The ensuing high groundball rate fueled his career-low 86 OPS+ over a full season. The 35-year-old should probably rebound some, but at this point, don't expect too much.

Appreciate This Man! Adam Ottavino stepped into the spotlight with a dazzling 2018, striking out more than a third of batters and logging a 2.43 ERA. ... Ottavino ditched his fourseam fastball for a sinker, which was a heavy contributing factor in his sudden success. ... Ottavino's January signing can be a true difference-maker. And, yes, he could definitely strike out Babe Ruth.

A Modest Proposal From Joe Sheehan: The Yankees spent the offseason bolstering their bench and their bullpen, so it was unfortunate that their first major injury of the season came to starting pitcher Luis Severino. Severino was shut down early in March with rotator cuff inflammation, and will be out until at least May. ... Severino is coming off the best two-year stretch of any homegrown Yankees starter since Chien-Ming Wang in 2006-07 ... He is the one irreplaceable Yankee, and until he's healthy, this team is second to the Red Sox in the AL East. ​

MLB.TV Rating: 9.2. You've got masterful slugging from Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, vibrant youth in Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres, and first-class pitching from Luis Severino and James Paxton. Just like last year's Yankees, this club can be a bit hard to stomach for seasoned haters of the franchise: It's a Yankees team that's genuinely, seriously, undeniably likeable. They're not just good. They're fun, and that makes all the difference. Maybe you don't have to like them, but it sure is hard to hate them.

Keep an Eye Out for... ... Luis Cessa's strong spring has made him the frontrunner for a spot here after getting a brief showing in the big leagues in each of the last three seasons, mostly in the bullpen. But there are a few other options. There's Jonathan Loaisiga, considered one of the organization's top prospects, who showcased a strong breaking ball last season. Or maybe it's Domingo German, who's shown promise but is probably better suited for a role in the 'pen, given his struggle to develop a third pitch. ...

Scout's Takes - A rival scout analyzes the 2019 New York Yankees

What is the key question surrounding this team in 2019?

Starting pitching consistency would be the one big concern. CC Sabathia is 38, J.A. Happ is 36. James Paxton is a great acquisition if he stays healthy. Can Luis Severino repeat what he did last year?

Who is the most overrated player on the team?

Gary Sanchez. When I heard they wouldn't trade him for J.T. Realmuto, I was shocked, because Sanchez just seems to have lapses of focus defensively and gets into funks offensively. He's got an incredible tool package, but there's a lack of consistency. Second place is Giancarlo Stanton. He's an Adonis, but there are a lot of holes and a lot of streaks where there are some really, really bad at-bats. But when it's all said and done, on a club like that, his numbers fit really nicely.

Who is the most underrated player on the team?

Dellin Betances. When you dig into the numbers, he's been unhittable for four years now. He'll go two weeks without having five balls put in play hard. The other guy, on the offensive side, is Didi Gregorius. He brings so much positive energy. That's something that will be missed this year.

What young player(s) is/are on the cusp of stardom?

They've got three for me: Miguel Andujar, Gleyber Torres and Severino. Andujar has some glitches defensively which he's been working hard on. Severino's stuff is unhittable at times, but he gets into some funks. Torres I'd put a little bit ahead because he's the whole package. He was pretty consistent all year, plus his defense is so attractive. His power keeps getting better and his maturity at the plate will continue to get better.

What young player(s) is/are the biggest bust candidate(s)?

This is a guy I really like, but Greg Bird is kind of a shadow of what you thought he might be. I'm not seeing it. He's probably close to a thousand at-bats behind where he should be because of all of his injuries. He just doesn't seem to have the same rhythm or swing. It's a different look when you watch him now. Maybe the other would be Clint Frazier. I'm not a big fan of his. I think he's going to be an everyday guy, but not an impact guy.

Who gets the most out of his talent?

I have a man crush on Aaron Judge. He's my new hero. It’s about how he handles himself. He's talented, and he has a quiet leadership style where he does the right thing all the time. I think everybody on that team recognizes that. He's so big and strong. You want to rock the boat with that? I'm a huge fan of his.

Who gets the least out of his talent?

Sanchez. A lot of it is laziness and focus. He went and had a huge first year, and then all of a sudden, you saw the lazy, complacent guy.

Who has the nastiest stuff on the team?

Betances and Severino. When they're on, they can be unhittable. You can't get the barrel to the ball. It's high-octane velocity with late movement, hard breaking balls with late depth. It's tough to get the barrel to the ball when those two guys are on.

Who has the best baseball instincts/IQ?

Brett Gardner. He's a little grinder who's gotten so much out of his ability and continues to contribute. He's not afraid to hit with two strikes, he can steal a base, he can play centerfield still. I think that's why they re-signed him so quickly. He's a great leader; he's accountable for what he does everyday. I saw him coming through the minor leagues and I got him right, because he wasn't the most gifted guy, but I had him as at least an everyday guy whose makeup may make him an impact guy.

Whose batting practice makes your jaw drop?

It's must-see with Stanton, Judge and Sanchez. You go out there in Yankee Stadium, about 500 feet away [from home plate], and you might get hit.

Name two guys on this team that you would immediately trade for.

Judge and Severino.

Name the guy (or guys) on this team you would never want in your clubhouse.

Sanchez and Aroldis Chapman. He's very talented, but every year he gets into funks where he can't throw strikes. I guess he helped the Cubs win the World Series, but I don't know how much he really did. And he's had the off-field issues. He's good, but I wouldn't want him.

Whose effort could use a jolt?

Sanchez.

Who do you want at-bat or on the mound in a season-defining moment?

Aaron Judge. You're going to have to get him out, he's not going to get himself out. He does have some holes: his swing can get long at times and he can get into funks, but he's pretty patient. I was amazed at how good each at-bat was in the playoffs against Boston.

On the mound, probably Severino. Don't ask me why, because he shit the bed pretty bad the one year in the playoffs [the 2017 AL wild-card game], but he bounced back from that, and from everything I've heard about him, he has a tremendous focus to be great. I think with maturity, he's got a chance to be like Max Scherzer, that warrior guy, because he doesn't want to come out of games. A lot of starters now will happily give the ball to their manager. You can tell he's pissed when he's gonna come out.

Who don't you want in that situation?

On the mound it's Betances because of some of his funks. I think he's great in that seventh-inning bridge role where he's unhittable, but the later you get in the game, he might get excited. I hate to nail him on that, but I just don't think he's ever going to be a closer. With the way the game is now, though, he still has tremendous value. Their bullpen with him, a healthy Zack Britton, Chapman, Chad Green and Tommy Kahnle is going to be lights out this year.

On the hitter side, it'd be Sanchez. He gets himself out sometimes. You saw a lot of that last year. It was a tossup between him and Stanton. Stanton at times can give you some of the ugliest at-bats. He can just wave at three pitches like he doesn't even give a shit.

Which under-the-radar prospect/non-roster invitee could make a splash this season?

Jonathan Loaisiga is a guy who can come up if somebody gets hurt and be pretty dominant. He's fun to watch. He's got a plus curveball, a plus fastball, and he throws strikes.

Is the current manager one you would hire to run your club?

I'm an Aaron Boone fan, and I would hire him. I like him. I like the relationship he has with his players. He protects his guys. He's a baseball lifer. I think he's only going to get better the more he manages. He's still making mistakes, but I think he's going to learn from them and become more confident.

What is the ceiling for this team this year? What about the next three years?

Deep playoffs, possible World Series, times three. They've done a great job as an organization, they have depth to trade from, they have money to sign. They're in a great place.

Emptying the notebook:

... Troy Tulowitzki has lost a step, but I think a lot of that is trying to play under more control. He's been a very pleasant surprise. His swing looks better, and I really think he's got a 'fuck you Toronto, I'll show you I can still play' vibe about him ... They signed a great makeup kid in DJ LeMahieu, who's going to help them win a bunch of games. ... Masahiro Tanaka is a great pitcher ... He's going to win 13–14 games and have a couple of stinkers ... 
[Note: Man, that scout does not think much of Gary Sanchez!!]

Red Sox

2018 finish: 108-54, won World Series in five games over Dodgers
2019 prediction: 96-66, Second in AL East

Movin' On Up! Rafael Devers's first full season in the majors had plenty of rough patches. The young third baseman logged a pedestrian 94 OPS+ after struggling to draw walks and hit lefties. But Devers is just freshly 22 and already shown big-league patience, power (21 HRs in 2018) and an improved ability to hit southpaws. He'll likely master all of these traits by the time he's old enough to rent a car.

Sell!: Dustin Pedroia has finally made a return to gameplay in spring training—a good sign, after a knee injury kept him out for a chunk of 2017 and essentially all of 2018. Even if he manages to stay healthy for 2019, though, Pedroia is still a 35-year-old whose comeback attempt looks like a uphill battle.

Appreciate This Man! It's hard to stand out on a club so studded with stars; Jackie Bradley, Jr. might not do so even if he was able to consistently hit like he did during his breakout 2016 season. But the centerfielder is worth your attention for his defense alone. The human highlight reel regularly manages not only to make some seemingly impossible acrobatic catches, but to make them look smooth.

A Modest Proposal From Joe Sheehan: Last year, Xander Bogaerts broke out with a .288/.360/.522 season. This year, look 40 feet to Bogaerts's right for the next young Red Sox star. Devers was disappointing in 2017, posting a .298 OBP and playing poor defense at third base. Eduardo Nunez, no glove man himself, was chipping away at Devers's playing time in the second half. Still, Devers is just 22, younger than almost every player who got Rookie of the Year votes in the AL last season. When he hit the ball in the air, he averaged an exit velocity of 95.4 mph on his line drives and fly balls, in the top 50 among all hitters. His strikeout rate of 25% is just barely above average in today's game, and his walk rate of 6.6% is good for a player in his age-21 season. Devers will take a big step forward in 2019.

MLB.TV Rating: 9.1. They're the reigning World Series champions featuring Chris Sale's slider, J.D. Martinez's dingers and Mookie Betts' everything? Yeah. (Now included: Heightened drama in the later innings, courtesy of a bullpen that lost Craig Kimbrel and does not look fit for a team of this caliber.)

Keep an Eye Out for… Michael Chavis, one of the organization's top prospects, should be up this year at first or third, with the potential for plenty of power and plenty of strikeouts. ...

Scout's Takes - A rival scout analyzes the 2019 Boston Red Sox

What is the key question surrounding this team in 2019?

Who's gonna pitch the ninth? I think Ryan Brasier and Matt Barnes are co-favorites here. Stuff-wise, it probably should be Barnes, but both are similar guys: They throw hard and have good offspeed but are unproven. Do they go out and spend a lot of money and re-sign Craig Kimbrel? If they did, they'd probably be the favorites in the league again, but it's a lot of money.

Who is the most overrated player on the team?

I don't think they have one.

Who is the most underrated player on the team?

Brock Holt's a good player. Other people look at him and see a utility guy. He's better than that. He'd be a starting second baseman for most clubs. He can hit good pitchers. He uses the whole field. He understands what pitchers are trying to do with him.

What young player(s) is/are on the cusp of stardom?

Rafael Devers is a good hitter. He's got power. He has to improve his footwork at third base. His hands are okay and he can get to most things.

What young player(s) is/are the biggest bust candidate(s)?

Christian Vázquez really hasn't made any offensive strides at all. He's always been a good defender, but he never got better offensively. He doesn't make enough contact and is easy to beat: just locate fastballs and throw him breaking stuff.

Who gets the most out of his talent?

The outfield as a group. They work hard at their craft. They're outstanding defenders, especially in Fenway, where it's very tough to play. J.D. Martinez plays it like Mike Greenwell used to—he's out there and does what he can, but he's not really a great outfielder—but the other three have basically got the whole thing covered.

Who has the nastiest stuff on the team?

Nathan Eovaldi's gas sets everything else up. Chris Sale's slider is incredible. It grinds like Steve Carlton's used to grind, like Randy Johnson's. It just keeps coming. It grinds right into the back foot of righthanders.

Who has the best baseball instincts/IQ?

Dustin Pedroia, but he's just starting back to playing. They'll ramp him up a little bit. He's an absolute tiger.

Whose batting practice makes your jaw drop?

Jackie Bradley Jr.'s, because nobody expects it. It's not because he hits it longer than anybody, it's because he's not supposed to be a power guy and he just mashes.

Name two guys on this team that you would immediately trade for.

Mookie Betts and Sale. Mookie is obvious: He works hard, he's a great talent, an all-around player, a clubhouse guy. I have concerns that they're not going to keep him. They'll offer him a ton and a half and he might take the money. Sale has electric stuff and electric commitment to his craft. He wears down a little bit, though.

Who do you want at-bat or on the mound in a season-defining moment?

Mookie steps up.

Who don't you want in that situation?

Right now, Rafael Devers, because he expands the zone, but he's going to get better. Going into last year it would definitely have been David Price, but he stepped up a little bit this year.

Which under-the-radar prospect/non-roster invitee could make a splash this season?

Darwinzon Hernandez. He's got some kind of arm, it's electric, but he's a puppy. Right now the only thing he can command is his fastball.He needs a lot of work, but it's in there, boy.

Is the current manager one that you would hire to run your club?

I give Alex Cora all the credit. He'd be at the top of the list. He's been there. He's played in the big leagues. He was not a great player himself, but he understands how to handle all kinds of guys. He's got a great feel for the ebb and flow of the clubhouse. In tough situations, Alex is never frantic.

What is the ceiling for the team this year? What about the next three years?

Win the whole thing. It's gonna depend on what they do in the ninth inning. If this were a seven-inning game, they'd win it again, but they have to figure out the eighth and ninth innings. Kimbrel is a huge loss, but Joe Kelly put up a lot of important innings for this club, too.

Emptying the notebook:

The core of the team is the outfield, obviously. Mookie Betts is probably the best player in the league. Jackie Bradley Jr. doesn't hit a lot of home runs, but has big power. He's a little like Ichiro — Ichiro could have hit 35 home runs a year if he wanted to, but then couldn't hit .350. ... I'm a big fan of Eduardo Nuñez. He knows how to win games. His numbers are never great, but he's an ideal utility guy. He knows his role, he can play a number of positions. He's what a winning team has to have on their bench.
ESPN:
AL East: Yankees 16 votes, Red Sox 14, Rays 1

AL Central: Cleveland 28, Twins 3
AL West: Astros 28, A's 2, Angels 1
AL Wild Cards: Red Sox 17, Yankees 12, Rays 9, Angels 7, A's 7, Twins 5, Astros 3, Cleveland 2

NL East: Nationals 13, Phillies 11, Atlanta 5, Mets 2
NL Central: Cubs 12, Brewers 10, Cardinals 9
NL West: Dodgers 24, Rockies 6, Padres 1
NL Wild Cards: Phillies 9, Nationals 9, Cardinals 8, Dodgers 7, Atlanta 7, Cubs 6, Brewers 6, Rockies 5, Mets 3, Padres 1, Reds 1

AL Champion: Astros 15, Yankees 7, Red Sox 5, A's 3, Cleveland 1
NL Champion: Dodgers 10, Nationals 6, Cardinals 4, Phillies 3, Brewers 3, Cubs 2, Atlanta 2, Rockies 1
World Series Champion: Astros 14, Dodgers 4, Yankees 4, Red Sox 3, Nationals 3, A's 2, Cardinals 1

MVPs, Cy Youngs and Rookies

AL MVP: Trout 12, Judge 6, Lindor 6, Bregman 2, Chapman 2, Betts 1, Correa 1, Stanton 1
NL MVP: Arenado 10, Goldschmidt 7, Acuna 4, Machado 3, Bryant 2, Harper 2, Bellinger 1, Rendon 1, Soto 1

AL Cy Young: Cole 10, Bauer 4, Sale 4, Snell 4, Verlander 4, Kluber 3, Berrios 1, Carrasco 1
NL Cy Young: Scherzer 18, deGrom 5, Nola 5, Darvish 1, Flaherty 1, Syndergaard 1

AL Rookie of the Year: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 19, Eloy Jimenez 8, Yusei Kikuchi 2, Jesus Luzardo 1, Forrest Whitley 1
NL Rookie of the Year: Victor Robles 15, Pete Alonso 5, Nick Senzel 5, Fernando Tatis Jr. 3, Francisco Mejia 1, Chris Paddack 1, Brendan Rodgers 1

David Schoenfield:

Most exciting outfield: Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox had the highest cumulative WAR from outfielders in 2018, at 18.6, edging the Brewers' 17.9 mark (the Yankees were a distant third at 13.7). There is the possibility that the Red Sox group fares even better, as there was a lot of optimism in Red Sox camp that Bradley is poised for his best season yet. In 2018, the batted-ball metrics suggest that Bradley hit into a lot of bad luck in the first half, when he hit .210 with a .265 BABIP. In the second half, with more normalized batted-ball results, he hit .269/.340/.487. He still struggled against lefties (.185 on the season), but look for him to repeat his 2016 numbers and boost his WAR by two or three.
NBC Sports
AL East: Yankees 7
AL Central: Cleveland 6, Twins 1
AL West: Astros 7
AL Wild Cards: Red Sox 7, Rays 3, Athletics 1, Twins 1, Angels 1, Cleveland 1

NL East: Nationals 3, Phillies 3, Atlanta 1
NL Central: Cubs 4, Cardinals 2, Brewers 1
NL West: Dodgers 5, Rockies 2
NL Wild Cards: Cardinals 3, Nationals 3, Dodgers 2, Phillies 2, Atlanta 2, Cubs 1, Brewers 1

AL Champions: Astros 4, Yankees 3
NL Champions: Nationals 4, Dodgers 1, Rockies 1, Cardinals 1
World Series Champions: Astros 3, Yankees 2, Dodgers 1, Nationals 1

AL MVP: Trout 5, Bregman 1, Correra 1
NL MVP: Arenado 3, Goldschmidt 2, Freeman 1, Harper 1

AL Cy Young: Sale 3, Cole 2, Verlander 1, Carrasco 1
NL Cy Young: Scherzer 2, Buehler 2, Nola 2, Taillon 1

Todd Dybas: "The Yankees are built for the modern game with bullpen pitching and multiple guys who could hit 40 homers."

Alex Pavlovic: "The World Series hangover is real, so expect the Yankees to pull away from the Red Sox."

Lou Merloni: "The Yankees won 100 games last year and have improved their biggest weakness ... The Red Sox are loaded but the bullpen will cost them the division ..."

Vinnie Duber: "The Yankees' lineup is going to hit about a million home runs ... The Red Sox are still a playoff lock in a top-heavy AL ..."

Tony Andracki: "[T]he Yankees somehow improved upon a 100-win team even without breaking the bank ... There's no way the Red Sox will miss the playoffs ..."

Corey Seidman: "I just think the Yankees have more than the Red Sox for the division ..."
[Note: A million home runs. Really? ... And the WS hangover is real. ... Oh, okay, Mr. Science.]
CBS Sports
AL East: Yankees 3, Red Sox 2
AL Central: Cleveland 4, Twins 1
AL West: Astros 5
AL Wild Cards: Red Sox 3, Athletics 2, Yankees 2, Rays 1, Twins 1, Angels 1

NL East: Nationals 4, Phillies 1
NL Central: Cardinals 3, Cubs 2
NL West: Dodgers 5
NL Wild Cards: Cubs 3, Phillies 3, Cardinals 2, Mets 1, Atlanta 1

AL Champions: Astros 3, Yankees 2
NL Champions: Nationals 3, Cubs 1, Dopdgers 1
World Series Champions: Astros 3, Yankees 2

AL MVP: Trout 2, Bregman 2, Judge 1
NL MVP: Goldschmidt 3, Acuna 1, Baez 1

AL Cy Young: Verlander 2, Sale 1, Cole 1, Kluber 1
NL Cy Young: Scherzer 4, Buehler 1

AL Rookie: Yusei Kikuchi 3, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 2
NL Rookie: Victor Robles 3, Nick Senzel 1, Pete Alonso 1

AL Manager: Rocco Baldelli 3, Charlie Montoyo 1, Aaron Boone 1
NL Manager: Dave Martinez 4, Mike Shildt 1

AL Comeback Player: Byron Buxton 3, Miguel Cabrera 2
NL Comeback Player: Corey Seager 4, Yu Darvish 1

March 20, 2019

The Globe's 2019 Predictions

The Boston Globe's six baseball writers offer their predictions for 2019.

Two of the four writers who have the Red Sox in the ALCS also picked them to repeat as World Series champions. Only one of the six picked the Yankees to make it as far as the ALCS.
                      ALE  ALC  ALW  NLE  NLC  NLW  ALWC     NLWC     ALCS          NLCS          World Series
Alex Speier           BOS  CLE  HOU  WAS  CGI  LAD  NYY/TBR  NYM/SDP  CLE def. NYY  WAS def. LAD  Nationals
Peter Abraham         NYY  MIN  HOU  WAS  CHI  LAD  BOS/CLE  STL/PHI  BOS def. HOU  CHI def. PHI  Red Sox
Chad Finn             BOS  MIN  HOU  PHI  CHI  LAD  NYY/TBR  ATL/SDP  BOS def. HOU  CHI def. PHI  Red Sox
Tara Sullivan         BOS  CLE  HOU  WAS  CHI  LAD  NYY/OAK  NYM/SFG  HOU def. BOS  LAD def. CHI  Dodgers
Christopher L. Gasper NYY  CLE  HOU  NYM  CHI  LAD  BOS/MIN  WAS/MIL  CLE def. HOU  LAD def. CHI  Cleveland
Dan Shaughnessy       NYY  CLE  HOU  PHI  CHI  LAD  BOS/OAK  STL/SFG  HOU def. BOS  CHI def. LAD  Astros
Shaughnessy should have his face on a stamp, because he continues to mail it in. For the (approximately) 266th time since 2004, CHB asks: "What Happened To The Bad Old Days Of The Red Sox?" (no link; "sorry") ... The only people in New England who even remotely give a shit are Shaughnessy and a gaggle of Yankee fans.

February 26, 2019

Street & Smith's 2019 Preview: Red Sox Are "The Best Team in The Land"

Street & Smith's 2019 Baseball Preview

AL East
Red Sox
Yankees
Rays
Blue Jays
Orioles

Red Sox: "After winning 108 games and cruising through the postseason, the Red Sox are the best team in the land. They should be a playoff force again."

Yankees: "Making consecutive playoff appearances is good for most teams, but not the Yankees. Not after seeing the Red Sox win another World Series. It's another title-or-bust year for the Bronx Bombers."

I want to note that one of the magazine's articles is about the diminishing workload of starting pitchers. It's titled "Progress or Pansies?" I'm surprised that no one at Street & Smith's objected to that offensive title – or if someone did, that concern was ignored. The article itself contains no homophobic slurs.

ALWC: Yankees over Twins
NLWC: Nationals over Brewers
ALDS: Red Sox over Cleveland; Astros over Yankees
NLDS: Atlanta over Nationals; Cardinals over Dodgers
ALCS: Astros over Red Sox
NLCS: Atlanta over Cardinals
World Series: Astros over Atlanta

AL MVP: Mike Trout
NL MVP: Paul Goldschmidt
AL Cy Young: Gerrit Cole
NL Cy Young: Aaron Nola
AL Rookie: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays
NL Rookie: Victor Robles, Nationals
AL Manager: Rocco Baldelli, Twins
NL Manager: Craig Counsell, Brewers

Red Sox:
Using hindsight, it's a fairly simple conclusion that the Boston Red Sox should have been the 2018 World Series champions.

They won a franchise-best 108 games and clinched the brutal American League East crown for the third straight season. They stormed through the playoffs, losing one games in each of their three series to capture their fourth World Series title in 14 years. ...

The good news for the Red Sox is most of their key players return, including one of the best outfields in baseball: a trio of 20-something talent ... [Mookie] Betts is the superstar; he's only 26 and is 1-A behind only L.A. Angles outfielder Mike Trout in the conversation for baseball's best all-around player. ...

[J.D.] Martinez was almost like another hitting coach for Boston, and his work ethic and knowledge of the game was instrumental in the club's graduation from a really good team to a great one. ...

The rotation, which posted a 3.77 mark, fourth in the A.L., remains together and is potentially dominating if Boston gets a full season from ace Chris Sale, who was limited to 27 starts due to injury. ...

The only question mark for the Red Sox, from a talent perspective, is how the bullpen takes form as closer Craig Kimbrel tested free agency and setup man Joe Kelly, who thrived in the playoffs, left for a three-year deal with the Dodgers.

But with plenty of cash and cachet, the Red Sox should be in position to make another long run in the 2019 postseason.

Bottom Line: The Red Sox did what they were supposed to do in 2018 and there's no reason they can't again in 2019. Their veterans, especially in the rotation, must stay healthy, but the offense and defense are stocked, and ownership has been willing to acquire any missing pieces in July.

Scout's View: "I'm extremely impressed with Alex Cora. He's a lot smarter than I thought he was. He's genuine and he built a relationship with players from Day One and he carried it through. This team's not a fluke. ... David Price went back to the basics and figured out things. He knew he had to get a better angle to his fastball and to use his changeup more. He reinvented himself, but he always had the right pieces. ... I'm so happy for Steve Pearce. Wasn't a high pick, continually grinds it out. .. I like Rafael Devers. He's got a chance to be an impactful bat."
Yankees:
The reality that blanketed the 2018 New York Yankees is that they simply weren't good enough. ...

The Yankees didn't get to the World Series. And the Boston Red Sox won it. Those are the only facts that matter in the Bronx. ...

[T]he Yankees immediately fired a salvo at the rest of the American League early in the offseason by trading for Seattle Mariners lefty James Paxton in mid-November. ... The price [three prospects, including lefthanded starter Justus Sheffield] will be worth it if Paxton can avoid injury and tap his immense potential. Staying healthy has been his primary hurdle. ...

The Yankees' rotation was the club's weakest link – and now it is again a strength with the acquisition of Paxton and the re-signing of [J.A.] Happ and CC Sabathia to join righthanders Luis Severino and Masahiro Tanaka. With one of the most formidable bullpens in baseball ... the starters only have to get through five or six innings to have a chance to win.

Especially if New York's offense recreates what it did in 2018. Led by stars such as Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, the Yankees topped the majors with 267 homers and scored more runs (851) than any other cub besides the Red Sox. ...

Didi Gregorius underwent Tommy John surgery on his right elbow [in October] and is lost until roughly midseason. .. But the club's offense shouldn't suffer much, especially if middle infielder Gleyber Torres and third baseman Miguel Andujar ... take the next step, and catcher Gary Sanchez rebounds from what was basically a lost season [.186 average] ...

There is some concern about Andujar's defense at third and whether Torres can handle shortstop every day if needed ... but Boone's most difficult task may be finding playing time for so much talent. ...

Although they have dealt away some key prospects recently, the organizational cupboard is far from bare, and [GM Brian] Cashman isn't afraid to use youngsters as trade chips.

Bottom line: The Yankees are among the most balanced and talented teams in baseball. Unfortunately, they are in the same division with the defending champion. So, theoretically, they'll have to be even better in 2019 if they want to win the division and have an easier road to the World Series, where Yankee fans believe their team should be every year.

Scout's View: "The upside in pitching makes this team so dangerous. Paxton, Severino and Tanaka give you three different looks, all with potentially dominating stuff, and then you turn it over to that bullpen. ... The Didi injury hurts in that he's such a positive influence on that club – great energy, great teammate. They need another good makeup guy to fill that void. ... Andujar and Torres had great years and are really talented kids. But Andujar has to do a lot of work with is throwing and footwork, and I think they are better off leaving Gleyber at second base."
So the MFY starters need to go only five or six innings? Umm, the starters for 28 of the 30 teams went 5.x innings per start last year, so that's normal even for teams with shitty bullpens. ... And what's up with the anti-Didi comments? One of the team's best hitters is out for at least half the season, but the offense "shouldn't suffer much"; what they'll really miss are his "energy" and "makeup".

Athlon's 2019 Preview: Red Sox Will Win AL East, Lose ALCS

Athlon Sports 2019 Baseball Preview

AL East
Red Sox
Yankees
Rays
Blue Jays
Orioles

Other Division Winners: Cleveland, Astros, Nationals, Cardinals, Dodgers
AL Wild Cards: Yankees, Rays
NL Wild Cards: Cubs, Brewers
ALCS: Astros over Red Sox
NLCS: Dodgers over Cardinals
World Series: Dodgers over Astros

AL MVP (Top 5): Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, Jose Altuve, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton (with Chris Sale #9, J.D. Martinez #10)
NL MVP (Top 5): Nolan Arenado, Kris Bryant, Christian Yelich, Anthony Rendon, Corey Seager (with pitchers Max Scherzer #7 and Jacob deGrom #8)
AL Cy Young: Chris Sale, Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Corey Kluber, Blake Snell
NL Cy Young: Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, Clayton Kerhsaw, Noah Syndergaard, Walker Buehler
AL Rookie: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
NL Rookie: Victor Robles

Red Sox:
They return basically the entire roster, but change is coming. In the next two years alone, free agency looms for standouts such as Chris Sale, J.D. Martinez [opt-out clause], Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Rick Porcello and Jackie Bradley Jr. They'll be motivated to go for broke, because this isn't the start of a budding dynasty. It's already the last waltz.

Rotation: Sale's shoulder was such a mess that the Red Sox didn't even feel comfortable pitching him in the [World Series] clincher until they had built a four-run lead. This continues a troubling trend of Sale wearing down in second halves of seasons ... The rest of the rotation appears pretty set. ...

Bullpen: With or without [Craig] Kimbrel – whose stuff and performance deteriorated precipitously in 2018 – the Red Sox return some experienced arms. Setup man Matt Barnes could step into the closing role with his hammer curveball and 96 mph fastball. Or the job could go to Ryan Brasier ... A boost could come in the form of righthander Tyler Thornburg, who was shut down over the final weeks to rest his shoulder and prepare for 2019.

Middle Infield: [T]he Red Sox took calls on [Bogaerts] at the Winter Meetings. Nothing materialized, but perhaps they're not as committed to the well-rounded shortstop ... as we thought. His double-play partner would ideally be Dustin Pedroia, but good luck counting on the 35-year-old after a season lost to cartilage restoration surgery in his left knee. ... Neither [Brock Holt nor Eduardo Nunez] is a full-time option at second, however, so perhaps another signing is in order.

Corners: Rafael Devers regressed as a sophomore, his contact rate and on base percentage dropping, and his 24 errors far and away leading the team. But he posted an OPS of .807 after Sept. 1 and delivered his second straight clutch postseason, suggesting that better days loom at age 22. Across the diamond, [Mitch Moreland and Steve Pearce are] a solidly selfless duo, though if either struggles, this would be an obvious area to upgrade at the trade deadline.

Outfield: No unit in baseball played with more dynamism than the trio of Andrew Benintendi, Bradley and Betts. ... All three remain under team control through at least 2020, so the nightmare they represent for opposing offenses and defenses won't be going anywhere anytime soon.

Catching: Can we get a "Meh?" The Red Sox catching situation represents one of the club's few weaknesses, with Christian Vazquez and Sandy Leon combining to rank dead last among MLB backstops in every meaningful slash-line, including a woeful .525 OPS. ...

Management: [M]anager Alex Cora deserves to see his name adorn a bridge, tunnel, or maybe even an airport. He's here because of the way he relates to young players, and man, oh man, do they love playing for him. Cora still carries himself with the quiet cockiness of a jock, and his team followed his confident, unflappable lead. ...

Final Analysis: Outside of Sale's health and whatever splashes the Yankees make, the Red Sox appear as well positioned as any recent champion to repeat. Their core remains in its prime, their pitching is battle-tested, and their leadership has proved it can pull the right levers. Under normal circumstances, a hangover would be understandable and maybe even acceptable – after all, those starters threw a lot of postseason innings. But the dark clouds gathering ominously on the horizon make it clear that there can be no letup, because this is it. The group that arrived last year in a blaze of glory hopes to go out with similar pyrotechnics before 2020 arrives like a sucker punch.

Opposing Scouts Size Up The Red Sox: "You can't say the best team didn't win. ... [Alex Cora] understands how to utilize data while still respecting the players as people. It's going to start to break up after this season, because Chris Sale, Xander Bogaerts and maybe J.D. Martinez (opt-out clause) can be free agents and the farm system has thinned out, but for now they're the team to beat again. ... I worry a little about Sale's durability, but I trust this group to know how to get the most out of him. ... They're well-armed for another run even with some questions in the pen."

Beyond The Box Score: "Manager Alex Cora announced in early December that leadoff hitter and AL MVP Mookie Betts would flip-flop with No. 2 hitter Andrew Benintendi ... Want hope that Jackie Bradley Jr.'s strong second half and clutch postseason are sustainable? He's now under the tutelage of the same guy who turned J.D. Martinez into an All-Star. ... Bradley believes he [Craig Wallenbrock] holds the keys to avoiding the roller coaster that has defined his career. ... The nastiest, funniest guy in the 2018 Red Sox bullpen [was] Brandon Workman, who plays the strong, silent Texan in public, but is a relentless bleep-talker and ball buster behind closed doors. "You guys would be shocked," [Joe] Kelly says. 'It's like seeing your high school librarian in a death-metal band.'"
Yankees:
Last year's 100-win campaign, which ended when the Yanks gave the eventual champion Red Sox their toughest October series, is generally considered a flop in New York. Too harsh? Maybe. But the loaded Yankees are a World-Series-or-bust team again ...

[Seattle lefty James] Paxton could be the October ace the Yankees crave, and he and Luis Severino should lead a rotation that just might be the key to toppling Boston in the brawny American League East.

The Yankees, with all their young talent, are set up to contend for years, but they might have to go through Boston to get back to the World Series ...

Rotation: Paxton brings high-end stuff, but there are durability questions. Assuming he's healthy, though, he's dangerous, the kind of pitcher who could blow through even the toughest lineups. He struck out 11.7 per nine innings last year while walking just 2.4. ... The Yanks won 24 of Severino's 32 starts ... [but] there was talk during the year that he was tipping his pitches. ... [J.A. Happ's] lone postseason start was a dud, however, which means he's got to prove a few things this October.

Bullpen: Few clubs can match the Yanks' imposing relief troika of closer Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances and Chad Green ... [I]t's easy to predict another strikeout bonanza in the Bronx. The Yankees set an MLB record for bullpens with 11.4 strikeouts per nine innings last year, which broke the mark of 10.92 set by the Yanks the previous season. ... [Chapman] missed nearly a month with a left knee issue. ... Green wasn't quite as unhittable as he was in '17 ... Tommy Kahnle struggled with ineffectiveness (6.56 ERA) and injury, but he still might provide a power relief arm.

Middle Infield: Depending on where he plays, the Yanks have one infield spot set for years because [Gleyber] Torres arrived in a big way in 2018. The 22-year-old already looks like he's been in the majors a long time and notched an .820 OPS ... He's a natural shortstop who played second base and could handle any position. ... [B]ecause of Didi Gregorius' October Tommy John surgery ... the Yanks took a flyer on former superstar Troy Tulowitzki, who has a glossy resume but did not play at all in 2018 and appeared in only 66 games the year before.

Corners: Miguel Andujar ... beat Joe DiMaggio's club rookie record for doubles by two, hitting 47 two-baggers ... but his defense at the hot corner needs to improve ... [T]he Yanks were so unsure of his glove that he did not play in Game 4 of the AL Division Series against Boston. At first, the Yanks are still waiting on Greg Bird and wondering what they have in second-half star Luke Voit. Bird has looked spectacular at times ... But he's been abysmal, too – he batted .199 in 272 at-bats in 2018.

Outfield: [Giancarlo] Stanton led the Yanks in homers (38), RBIs (100) and runs (102) ... yet there's a narrative of disappointment. He's a metaphor of sorts for the 2018 Yankees – very good overall but not good enough. Stanton, 29, struck out 211 times, showing a penchant for chasing pitches. ... [Aaron Judge] missed 50 games in 2018 with a chip fracture in his right wrist but sparkled while in the lineup (.919 OPS, 27 homers) and should be just as lethal, now that his wrist is fully healed. Switch-hitter Aaron Hicks ... could be a monster in 2019, if he stays healthy.

Catching: The Yankees need a bounce-back from the squatting enigma that is Gary Sanchez. The thunder in his bat makes him a potential game-wrecker every night, but he was a liability behind the plate in 2018, leading MLB with 18 passed balls despite catching only 76 games.

Management: A year of experience should smooth the strategy bumps Aaron Boone experienced in his rookie season. Boone, trumpeted for his ability to communicate, already knows the roster ... Now it's time to win it all with them.

Final Analysis: There's too much talent here for anything less than a deep playoff run and perhaps more than that. Winning the AL East might be key, because advancing past a one-and-done Wild Card game – although the Yanks have won the previous two – remains risky.

Opposing Scouts Size Up The Yankees: "This team is set up even better than Boston for the long term ... Yes, [Paxton has] always been somewhat fragile, but this team is so good, they won't need to run him out there for 200 innings. ... The offense lived and died by the homer, but when you set the all-time record for homers – and you've got Aaron Judge – you're living pretty good. ... [I]f only they could get Gary Sanchez to concentrate more behind the plate."

Beyond The Box Score: "No team hit the ball harder than the Yankees in 2018. Yankee batters had 124 hits with an exit velocity of 110 miles per hour or more. ... They also had the 12 hardest-hit balls in the game – 10 by Giancarlo Stanton ..."