Baseball Prospectus: Likes The Red Sox In 2015

Baseball Prospectus offers its 2015 picks:

AL East (# of picks for 1st place)

Red Sox    34
Blue Jays   5
Orioles     3
Yankees     2
Rays        1

The other spots for the Red Sox were 2nd (7), 3rd (2), and 4th (2). The two guys who picked Boston to finish in 4th place both picked the Yankees to win the division, so they are probably just acting like dicks. However, Friend-of-JoS Matthew Kory is most certainly not a dick, as he smartly picked the Red Sox for 1st and the Yankees for 5th.

Rusney Castillo led the way with 13 Rookie of the Year picks. Carlos Rodon had 12 (and more overall points, actually).

In the National League, the Nationals and Dodgers were unanimous picks for the East and West, respectively.

World Series Winners

Nationals    24
Dodgers      14
Cleveland     2
Orioles       1
Cardinals     1
Pirates       1
Mariners      1
Padres        1

NY Daily News: 2015 Predictions

Bill Madden, after stating that the Mets will win the NL East, turns his attention to the AL East:

Orioles
Red Sox
Yankees
Blue Jays
Rays

RED SOX (83-79) [4 GB Baltimore]

BIG PICTURE: After going from world champions to last place last season, the Red Sox went out and spent a combined $183 million on Pablo Sandoval to play third base and Hanley Ramirez to play (gulp!) left field − this on top of the $72.5 million they spent at the end of August last year on Cuban export Rusney Castillo.

No doubt, their offense should be greatly improved, but it remains to be seen if the Red Sox can fill the void left by new Cub Jon Lester. The Red Sox filled their rotation holes by signing Justin Masterson and trading for lefty Wade Miley from Arizona and Rick Porcello from the Tigers. Both Miley (8-12, 4.24) and Masterson (7-9, 5.88) had very subpar seasons in 2014. ...

WHY THEY'LL FINISH SECOND: Even though their lineup — with Sandoval and Ramirez complementing David Ortiz and Mike Napoli in the middle and rookie Mookie Betts adding speed at the top ahead of Dustin Pedroia looms as the most formidable in the division, the Red Sox cannot expect to get to the postseason without a No. 1 starter and possibly even more rotation help. Their bullpen is also suspect, especially with closer Kohi [sic] Uehara starting on the DL (hamstring).

YANKEES (79-83)

BIG PICTURE: No doubt, every time Masahiro Tanaka takes the mound this season the Yankees will be holding their breath that his torn elbow ligament doesn't completely blow out. For as long as Tanaka holds up, the Yankees have a chance to break their two-year no-postseason slump − especially if Michael Pineda pitches with equal dominance as he demonstrated all spring. Tanaka and Pineda form potentially the most lethal 1-2 starting rotation duo in the AL East, and it is hoped that Nathan Eovaldi, the righty with the equally big arm can slide behind (or ahead of?) CC Sabathia as a dependable No. 3 or 4. ...

WHY THEY'LL FINISH THIRD: As much as they've seemingly improved the bullpen and the defense, with Didi Gregorius replacing Derek Jeter at short, the Yankees need big comebacks and full seasons from Mark Teixeira and Carlos Beltran, as well as improvement from Brian McCann and a full productive year from Jacoby Ellsbury, if they are going to have any kind of offense this season. With neither Gregorius and (presumably) Stephen Drew at the bottom of the order likely to hit much better than .220, this could be one of the weakest Yankee lineups we've seen in years.

Of the seven Daily News writers, four pick the Orioles to win the East and three pick the Red Sox. (Another writer has the Red Sox and Yankees as the two wild card teams!)

Three writers have Boston reaching the ALCS, losing to the Angels, White Sox, and Mariners.

Rusney Castillo gets two Rookie of the Year nods.

World Champs: Dodgers (3), Nationals (2), Marlins (1), Mariners (1).

ESPN: 2015 Predictions

ESPN:

ESPN formed a panel of [88] writers, analysts and contributors to give their team and award predictions for the 2015 MLB season. ...

The Washington Nationals led the way as our pick to win the World Series, receiving 42 percent (37 of the 88 votes) of the vote from our panel of experts. The Los Angeles Dodgers came in second, getting 19 percent (17 votes) of the vote.

In the American League East, the Boston Red Sox came out on top by receiving 36 votes followed by the Baltimore Orioles (30), Toronto Blue Jays (17), New York Yankees (4) and Tampa Bay Rays (1). ...

Below are 15 of our experts' picks for '15: ...

As you can see from the graphic at the above link, those 15 picks for the AL East are: Baltimore (10), Toronto (4), and Boston (1).

Three other people picked Boston as one of the two wild card teams. No one picked them to make the ALCS.

Only three of the 15 experts predict an American League team as the World Series champion  (Cleveland, White Sox, Mariners).

The Award picks are here.

SB Nation: 2015 Predictions: Red Sox First, Yankees Last

Now, this is a divisional finish I can get behind!

AL EAST
1. Boston Red Sox
2. Baltimore Orioles
3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Tampa Bay Rays
5. New York Yankees

1. Boston Red Sox

With the additions of Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval, though, the Red Sox have an outstanding, five-deep run in the middle of their lineup that's free of serious red flags. Ramirez, Sandoval, Ortiz, Pedroia, and Mike Napoli aren't locks for anything — never forget that baseball is awful and age is even worse — but they're all proven, reliable hitters. Now if Mookie Betts wants to break out? Sure, come along. Same goes for Bogaerts and Rusney Castillo. Happy to have you. The Red Sox don't have to have them do things they've never done before.

The rotation sure does bring up a lot of questions, though, so this isn't the lock of MLB. Every single pitcher comes with a "yeah, but," and those things can ruin the best-laid plans. Still, the Red Sox have depth upon depth upon depth at almost every position. They should be one of the more watchable teams this year. Other than the four-hour-game part. ...

5. New York Yankees

The Yankees have a rotation that's held together with twine and moist newspaper. CC Sabathia wasn't good last year, and then he missed time with a serious injury. Michael Pineda had serious shoulder problems, and Masahiro Tanaka's throwing ligament is partially torn. It's more likely that all three of them miss chunks of the season than they all make more than 28 starts, so the Yankees would have to figure out how to make pitching stew out of flour and warm Tab if anything went wrong. Ivan Nova and Chris Capuano are already hurt, too.

The lineup is filled with I've-heard-of-them players, but they're all a year older, and Chase Headley isn't enough to save an offense that was comfortably below-average last year. ...

SB's Awards section has me scratching my head: AL MVP: Jacoby Ellsbury & AL Cy Young: Masahiro Tanaka. ?!?! ... In the playoff picks, they have the Red Sox losing to the Angels in the ALCS. ... World Series: Pirates over Angels.

WEEI's "Not Even Remotely Special [Baseball Preview] Section"

From Rob Bradford and John Tomase:

What is your predicted order of finish in the AL East?

Tomase: Red Sox, Orioles, Yankees, Blue Jays, Rays. This really is a mediocre division, and the Red Sox are the one team with a standout unit — their offense.

Bradford: Orioles, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Yankees, Rays.

How many games will the Red Sox win?

Tomase: Come hell or high water, it takes at least 90 games to win the American League East every year and this one will be no different: 93.

Bradford: Harry Belafonte is this many years old (Spoiler: 88)

And their World Series predictions:

Tomase: Dodgers over White Sox

Bradford: Nationals over Mariners

Actually, contrary to what Tomase writes above about the AL East winner needing to win 90 games, the Yankees won the East in 2000 with only 87 victories.

And last year, although the first-place Orioles won 96 games, a win total of merely 85 would have taken the division.

Boston Globe Writers: 2015 Predictions

The Boston Globe writers offer their thoughts on the upcoming season. Here are some of the relevant bits:

Alex Speier
AL East: Red Sox – Consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds.
AL Wild Card: Yankees, Angels – Yankees staff surprises with health; Trout helps Halos get past.
World Series: Nationals over Mariners in 5 – Scott Boras hailed as conquering hero as client-loaded Nats triumph.

Chad Finn
AL East: Red Sox – Offense will keep scoreboard busy, but pitching reinforcements required.
AL Wild Card: Athletics, White Sox – Billy Beane's bewildering offseason moves pay off. Carlos Rodon electrifies.
World Series: Pirates over Red Sox in 6 – Pittsburgh finally avenges 1903 loss to Boston. Shall we meet again in 2127?

Nick Cafardo
AL East: Orioles – Most consistent starting rotation, great player in Manny Machado.
AL Wild Card: Angels, Tigers – The Angels still have overall talent; Tigers continue to ignore their bullpen.
World Series: Nationals over Mariners in 6 – The Nationals can't possibly lose with that pitching staff.

Peter Abraham
AL East: Orioles – Baltimore gets a big boost from Manny Machado's return.
AL Wild Card: Indians, Angels – The Sox will compete, but the loss of Christian Vazquez was a killer.
World Series: Nationals over Mariners in 6 – In a playoff series, it will be tough to beat the Washington starters.

Christopher L. Gasper
AL East: Blue Jays – The Blue Jays end the longest playoff drought in major North American pro sports.
AL Wild Card: Mariners, Tigers – Mariners' defense is almost as good as Pete Carroll's. Tigers edge Red Sox for final wild card.
World Series: Nationals over Tigers in 7 – Someone in Washington finally delivers on their promise.

Dan Shaughnessy
AL East: Orioles – Why does everyone think the Red Sox made up 25 games on these guys?
AL Wild Card: Indians, Red Sox – Tito gives his regards to Sox owners again in playoffs.
World Series: Nationals over Orioles in 7 – Beltway Series unites all houses.

NY Post: 2015 AL East Predictions

Of the seven baseball writers at the New York Post, five are predicting the Red Sox to finish ahead of the Yankees in the AL East, by either winning the division or finishing in second place.

As you probably could have guessed, one of the other two is lying shitbag George King.

Ken Davidoff
AL EAST: Orioles, Blue Jays, Yankees, Red Sox, Rays
ALCS: Tigers over Mariners
NLCS: Pirates over Dodgers
World Series champ: Pirates

Kevin Kernan
AL EAST: Orioles, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Yankees, Rays
ALCS: Mariners over White Sox
NLCS: Mets over Dodgers
World Series champ: Mariners

George A. King III
AL EAST: Orioles, Blue Jays, Yankees, Red Sox, Rays
ALCS: Orioles over Royals
NLCS: Nationals over Giants
World Series: Orioles

Dan Martin
AL EAST: Red Sox, Orioles, Blue Jays, Yankees, Rays
ALCS: Mariners over White Sox
NLCS: Nationals over Dodgers
World Series champ: Mariners

Mike Puma
AL EAST: Orioles, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Yankees, Rays
ALCS: Orioles over White Sox
NLCS: Marlins over Nationals
World Series: Marlins

Joel Sherman
AL EAST: Orioles, Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays, Rays
ALCS: Mariners over Orioles
NLCS: Dodgers over Pirates
World Series champ: Dodgers

Mike Vaccaro
AL EAST: Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays, Orioles, Rays
ALCS: Indians over Mariners
NLCS: Dodgers over Nationals
World Series champ: Dodgers

Sherman offers some comments on the Red Sox:

Key player: Clay Buchholz. Is he the guy who was 12-1 with a 1.74 ERA before a shoulder injury derailed him in 2013 or the guy who sank to 8-11 with a 5.34 ERA last year? A starter or two from among Buchholz, Rick Porcello, Justin Masterson, Joe Kelly and Wade Miley needs to emerge as anchors.

Player who'll need to step up: Hanley Ramirez. Boston gave him a four-year, $88 million pact and switched him from short to left, imagining his offense being helped by playing at Fenway. The lineup could be dynamic if the moody Ramirez is productive.

Name you'll get to know: Blake Swihart. The Red Sox have resisted including him as the key element in a trade for Cole Hamels. He might take over as the main catcher by midseason — especially now that fellow catcher prospect Christian Vazquez is headed for Tommy John surgery.

Biggest question mark: Can Xander Bogaerts handle shortstop? This groundball-heavy staff is going to need Bogaerts to field the position. There still is a star in there. Will it come out?

How it'll go down: There are enough questions up and down the pitching staff to undermine the season. But Mookie Betts is poised to be a star, the offense is strong and the farm system deep enough to help solve problems in season.

SI Picks Red Sox To Win AL East

Sports Illustrated's MLB Preview '15 is out.

AL East
Red Sox    89-73
Blue Jays  84-78
Orioles    82-80
Yankees    77-85
Rays       74-88

ALDS: Cleveland over Red Sox; Mariners over Tigers
ALCS: Cleveland over Mariners
World Series: Cleveland over Nationals

A Rival Scout Sizes Up The Red Sox:

The Red Sox can win the division because the whole division has holes. This is the worst AL East I've ever seen. ... There's no No. 1 starter, no No. 2. Clay Buchholz is a zero; he's got no tiger in him. ... Joe Kelly is a teaser. ... Rick Porcello is a 4. ... Mookie Betts is a better offensive player than Rusney Castillo right now. Betts should start in centerfield but shift to right eventually. ... Their bullpen is sketchy. Koji Uehara looks healthy but old. ...

A Rival Scout Sizes Up The Yankees:

Welcome to the if club: If Masahiro Tanaka's arm doesn't fall off, if CC Sabathia turns back the clock to 2011, if Michael Pineda stays healthy, if Adam Warren steps up. ... Tanaka has looked very good this spring [but] you're playing Russian roulette every time he throws the ball. ... I have to say, Alex Rodriguez has been a pleasant surprise. ... He's a piece of crap - but he's winning me over. ... The division is up for grabs, so they'll hang around.

Three Pre-Season Mags Pick Red Sox To Win East

Three pre-season baseball annuals have appeared on newsstands and all of them have good things to say about the Red Sox, who finished in last place in the American League East in 2014.

Lindy's, Athlon, and The Sporting News both pick Boston to go from worst-to-first and win the AL East. All three magazines also pick the Yankees to finish the season in fourth place.

Lindy's

Red Sox
Blue Jays
Orioles
Yankees
Rays
  
AL MVP: Robinson Cano
AL Cy Young: Chris Sale
AL Rookie: Rusney Castillo
AL West: White Sox
AL West: Angels
AL WC: Tigers, Mariners
World Series: Red Sox / Nationals

Athlon

Red Sox
Blue Jays
Orioles
Yankees
Rays
  
AL MVP: Mike Trout
AL Cy Young: Chris Sale
AL Rookie: Rusney Castillo
AL West: Tigers
AL West: Angels
AL WC: Blue Jays, Mariners
ALCS: Angels over Mariners
World Series: Nationals over Angels
  
Top 50 Prospects: #15: Blake Swihart; #23: Henry Owens

The Sporting News

Red Sox
Orioles
Blue Jays
Yankees
Rays
  
AL MVP: Mike Trout
AL Cy Young: Chris Sale
AL Rookie: Rusney Castillo
ALDS: Mariners over Red Sox; Tigers over White Sox
ALCS: Tigers over Mariners
World Series: Cubs over Tigers