Texas Gerrymandered To Create 2 New White GOP Districts

When the 2020 census was released, it was announced that the Texas population had grown enough to give the state two new congressional districts.

About 95% of that population growth was among minority populations (Hispanics, Blacks, Asians, etc.). A reasonable person would assume that since the growth was among minorities, the two new districts would be minority districts.

But Texas Republicans are neither rational nor fair. They did some serious gerrymandering, and gave the state two new districts that are predominately white.

That means that of the 38 districts, about 62% are predominately white -- even though whites only make up about 40% of the state population.

This was nothing less than an attack on racial and ethnic voters -- trying to minimize their electoral power in the state.

Here is part of how Dean Obeidallah describes this racist gerrymandering at MSNBC.com:

Texas has seen first-hand the connection between the state’s changing demographics and voting results. In 2012, presidential nominee Mitt Romney won the Lone Star state by nearly 16 pointsover Barack Obama. In 2016, Donald Trump won, but only by 9 points. Come the 2020 election, Trump’s victory in Texas was barely over 5 percent. You don’t need to have a Ph.D. in mathematics to get that these numbers put Texas Democrats closer to winning statewide elections for the first time since 1994. (The last time a Democratic presidential candidate won Texas was Jimmy Carter in 1976.)

The brutal truth is that the reason Texas and other GOP statesenacted 33 laws in 19 states since January to make it harder to vote was never about Trump’s “big lie.” It was about Trump’s “big loss.” Republicans are freaking out that people who don’t look like most of them could soon be in charge. Consequently, they're apparently using any means to preserve that power. 

The Texas GOP drafted the new voting districts to “shrink the number of districts in which eligible Hispanic and Black voters can realistically sway election outcomes,” as The Texas Tribune noted. By way of “elaborately manipulated lines to create district boundaries,” they reduced from eight to seven the districts that are majority Latino and reduced the districts where Black residents make up the majority of voters from one to zero.

In a central Texas House district in Bell County that had been trending blue (Black and Hispanic populations were nearly equal to the white population there), the district was redesigned into a doughnut-like configuration that effectively “segregated” the Black and Hispanic communities to dilute their political strength.

In the suburbs of the Dallas-Fort Worth area, which also has been trending blue in recent years, the party redesigned two congressional districts, creating two new majority white districts designed to more easily elect Republicans to both congressional seats. . . .

The reason the party can be so brazen in its efforts to suppress the vote of people of color is because this is the state's first redistricting since the Voting Rights Act was gutted in 2013 by the Republican-controlled Supreme Court in the infamous Shelby County v. Holderdecision. Ten years ago, the Texas GOP would’ve needed “pre-clearance” before these new voting maps could go into effect — same for its voter suppression measures. But with that key part of the VRA gutted — and with a 6-to-3 Republican majority on the Supreme Court — the GOP is going full throttle in its efforts to maintain white supremacy.

Texas GOP Gerrymanders To Maintain Its Grip On Power

The chart above is from The Texas Tribune. 

Whites are no longer the majority in Texas. They make up only about 40% of the state's population. Add to this the fact that of the 4 million new citizens in Texas, 95% of them were minorities (mainly Hispanic).

Considering that, a reasonable person might think that minorities might deserve at least one of the two new congressional seats in Texas (if not both). But Republicans hold the power in the state legislature, and reason and fairness are not GOP values.

The Republicans did some fancy gerrymandering, and drew a congressional map they believe will keep them in power (ignoring racial/ethnic realities).

Even though Whites are only 40% of the state population, the GOP created a map that has 23 districts (out of 38) that has a predominately White populace. That's 60.5% of the districts.

Hispanics, who make up 39% of the state's population, only got 7 seats that are predominately Hispanic. That's only 18.4% of the districts.

Even though Blacks make up 12% of the population and Asians make up 5%, neither group got a district that is predominately made up of those groups. Instead, the remaining 8 districts have no majority population. That's about 21.1% of the districts.

A coalition of Hispanic voters and other grassroots organizations have filed suit against the new congressional map -- claiming that it was gerrymandered to deny political power to minorities. I think they have a very good case. But with the current right-wing U.S. Supreme Court, it is unlikely they will win their efforts to get fairer districts drawn.

GOP's Texas Redistricting Map Would Help Republicans

The map above is what is being proposed by the Republican legislature in Texas (click on it to see a larger version). 

Texas currently has 36 House Districts -- with Republicans holding 22, while Democrats hold 14.

The new map would help Republicans increase their margin in the delegation. 25 of the new districts voted for Donald Trump (compared to only 22 of the current districts), while the other 13 districts voted for Joe Biden. 

No one expected the Republican legislature to be fair in drawing the new districts -- and they certainly have not been fair! 

Only 16% Say Congressional Districts Will Be Drawn Fairly

The chart above reflects the results of the new Economist / YouGov Poll -- done between August 14th and 17th of a national sample of 1,500 adults (including 1,250 registered voters). The margin of error for adults is 2.8 points, and for registered voters is 3 points.

Now that the census has been released, many states will need to redraw their congressional districts -- some to add and some to subtract districts. Only a few states have independent commissions to redraw the districts. In most states the districts are redrawn by the legislature. That means the party that controls the legislature can draw the districts to unfairly advantage their party (a process called gerrymandering).

The public knows this, and a plurality (44% of adults and 48% of registered voters) believes the districts will not be fairly drawn. Only 16% of adults (and 17% of registered voters) think the districts will be fairly drawn.

How Each U. S. Congressional District Voted In The Last 3 Presidential Elections (From Daily Kos)

 

The two charts above are from Daily Kos. They show how each of the 36 Texas congressional districts voted in the last three presidential elections. Daily Kos has provided that same information for all 435 congressional districts in the United States -- and you can access that information here.

8 Republicans House Seats Could Be Flipped In Texas

The map above is from the Austin American-Statesman. It shows that there are eight Republican congressional seats in Texas that are in danger of flipping to the Democrats. That would be wonderful, but I'll be happy if Democrats can take half of them.

Democrats Hold Small Edge In 57 Most Competitive Districts

This chart is from the latest CBS News / YouGov Poll -- done between August 10th and 16th of 4,989 respondents in the 57 most competitive congressional districts, with a margin of error of only 1.8 points. Those districts are:

AR02, AZ01, AZ02, CA10, CA21, CA25, CA39, CA45, CA48, CA49, CO06, FL18, FL26, FL27, GA06, IA01, IA03, IL06, IL12, KS02, KS03, KY06, ME02, MI08, MI11, MN01, MN02, MN03, MN08, NC09, NC13, NE02, NH01, NJ02, NJ03, NJ07, NJ11, NV03, NY19, NY22, NY24, OH01, OH12, PA01, PA05, PA06, PA07, PA17, TX07, TX23, TX32, UT04, VA02, VA07, VA10, WA08, WV03.

The survey shows Democrats with a 3 point overall edge in those 57 districts. This is very bad news for Republicans, since 52 of those districts were Republican seats and 5 were Democratic seats. All the Democrats have to do is win half of the 52 Republican seats and they will gain control of the House of Representatives.

If Democrats don't take this for granted, and turn out to vote in large numbers on election day, that can be done. One big things in their favor is the gender vote. While men support Republicans by an 8 point margin, women support Democrats by a 12 point margin -- and women tend to vote in larger numbers than men do.

Isn't It Time To Increase The Number Of U.S. House Reps ?

The size of the United States House of Representatives is set by law (passed by Congress and signed by the President). It gained its current size of 435 members in 1911 -- when the Apportionment Act of 1911 was passed. At that time, each member represented an average of 193,283 people. But as the population grew, so did the average size of a congressional district -- reaching 747,184 in 2017.

But that average size is not equally distributed among the states. Rhode Island has the lowest number of people represented by a House district with 529,820, while Montana has the highest at 1,050,493.

With nearly four times the number of people in an average House district, isn't it time to increase the size of the House of Representatives? Have our districts become so large that the representatives are no longer accountable to their districts?

I believe the size of the House should be increased -- substantially. In fact, I would support a doubling of the House districts to 870. That's probably not going to happen, but there have been some proposals to increase the size of the House. The most reasonable seems to be to limit the size of a district to the population of the least populous state. That would increase the number of House districts to about 547.

What do you think? Are House districts too large? Should the size of the House be increased?

The charts above are from the Pew Research Center.

The Texas House Districts That Democrats Could Flip

 Texas has 36 representatives in the U.S. House of Representatives. 25 of them are Republicans and only 11 are Democrats.

But if a blue wave actually happens this November, it could even affect bright-red Texas. And Democrats are working hard to flip some of the Republican seats.

Here are the House Districts the Democrats have the best chance of flipping, according to the Austin American-Statesman:

7th Congressional District

The matchup: U.S. Rep. John Culberson, R-Houston, vs. Lizzie Pannill Fletcher, Democrat

The district: The 7th, one of the state’s wealthiest districts, serves a small area of western Harris County, including affluent enclaves of Houston and nearly a dozen incorporated suburbs. The district is 44 percent white and 32 percent Hispanic, with a median household income of $71,183.

The Trump margin: In 2016, 48.5 percent of district voters opted for Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, 47.1 percent for President Donald Trump.

Money raised: Culberson: $1.5 million ; Fletcher: $1.4 million (this election cycle, according to the campaign finance data through early May)

The race: Despite Clinton’s victory in this district, Culberson, who has represented the district since 2001, was re-elected in 2016 with 56 percent of the vote. Fletcher, an attorney and the more moderate candidate in the Democratic runoff, comes into the race with the support of Emily’s List, a political action committee that helps elect pro-abortion rights Democratic women. Democrats are hoping that dissatisfaction with Trump among well-to-do Republican women will translate into victory. As of Tuesday, the Cook Political Report rates the seat as a toss-up.

21st Congressional District

The matchup: Chip Roy, Republican, vs. Joseph Kopser, Democrat

The district: The 21st includes swaths of Central and South Austin, parts of Hays and Comal counties, the north side of San Antonio and six Hill Country counties. The district is 62 percent white.

The Trump margin: In 2016, 52.5 percent of district voters opted for Trump, 42.5 percent for Clinton.

Money raised: Kopser: $1.2 million; Roy: $700,000

The race: For three decades, U.S. Rep. Lamar Smith, R-San Antonio, had a lock on this seat. After Smith announced his retirement last fall, the district is up for grabs. Cook rates it likely Republican. This promises to be an expensive race, as outside groups have already poured in hundreds of thousands of dollars, including the conservative-minded Club for Growth and the Serve America Victory Fund, which helps elect Democratic military veterans to Congress. Kopser, an Army veteran and Austin tech entrepreneur, will have to run up the score in liberal Austin to have a chance, while Roy, former chief of staff to U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, will depend on turnout in reliably Republican swaths of the Hill Country. Cruz, devoted to Roy and eager to kick up the vote in his own re-election campaign, could be a force.

23rd Congressional District

The matchup: U.S. Rep. Will Hurd, R-Helotes, vs. Gina Ortiz Jones, Democrat

The district: This massive, mostly rural district runs from San Antonio to El Paso and includes the border cities of Eagle Pass and Del Rio, as well as Fort Stockton, a ranching and oil and gas production center. The district is nearly 70 percent Hispanic, with a median household income of $51,293. It encompasses Big Bend National Park, Big Bend Ranch State Park and the nearby towns of Alpine and Marfa.

The Trump margin: Clinton took this district by 49.8 percent to Trump’s 46.4 percent.

Money raised: Gina Ortiz Jones: $1.2 million; Will Hurd: $2.4 million

The race: The 23rd is a swing district, going back and forth between Republicans and Democrats over the past decade. Hurd, a former CIA agent who is one of two African-American Republicans in the U.S. House, was elected in 2014 and narrowly won re-election in 2016. He has opposed Trump’s border wall plan, a popular stance in the district. Ortiz Jones is an openly gay former U.S. Air Force intelligence officer making her first political bid. The daughter of a single mother from the Philippines, she is Asian-American. Cook rates the seat leaning Republican.

31st Congressional District

The matchup: U.S. Rep. John Carter, R-Round Rock, vs. Mary Jennings “MJ” Hegar, Democrat

The district: Created after the 2000 census, the 31st is largely suburban and nearly 60 percent white. It encompasses fast-growing Williamson County and most of Bell County, including Temple, Belton and Killeen, adjacent to Fort Hood.

The Trump margin: Trump carried this district by a margin of 53.5 percent to 40.8 percent.

Money raised: Hegar: $500,000; Carter: $700,000

The race: John Carter, a former state district judge, has represented this district since 2003. In 2016, he won the general election with 58.4 percent of the vote. He may face his stiffest opponent in Hegar, a former Air Force helicopter pilot who won medals for her bravery in Afghanistan. Hegar’s path to victory lies in the southern part of the district, in the areas closest to Austin. Hegar hopes to appeal to moderates and women unhappy with the Trump administration. Cook calls the 31st a solidly Republican district, suggesting a Democratic win here in November would mean an enormous national wave for Democrats.

32nd Congressional District

The matchup: U.S. Rep. Pete Sessions, R-Dallas, vs. Colin Allred, Democrat

The district: The 32nd includes part of Preston Hollow, the affluent North Dallas neighborhood that George W. Bush has called home since the end of his presidency. The district covers mostly the northern and eastern Dallas County areas and a small portion of Collin County. It’s 53 percent white, 14 percent African-American, 8 percent Asian and 24 percent Hispanic.

The Trump margin: Clinton carried the district 48.5 percent to 46.6 percent for Trump.

Money raised: Sessions: $2 million; Allred: $1 million 

The race: Sessions, first elected to Congress from the 5th Congressional District in 1996 and then from the 32nd since 2004, has sounded bullish about his chances. In December 2016 he told The Dallas Morning News, “If the Democrats want to think they can take their party, that is dead, and resurrect something in Texas 32, bring it on.” Now he faces Allred, a voting rights attorney and former pro football player, who accuses Sessions of loyally supporting the president to the detriment of the district. “For too long, the people of this district have not had a choice,” Allred said at a runoff party Tuesday. Cook says the district leans Republican.

A New Poll Looks At The 99 Most Competitive Districts

These charts were made with information from a new Greenberg/Quinlan/Rosner Poll. The poll was done between July 27th and August 1st of 1,000 voters in the 99 most competitive House Districts, with a margin of error of 3.1 points.

79 of these 99 districts are current represented by a Republican House member, so one might think these 99 districts would lean toward supporting Trump. But that is not the case. They would oppose Trump firing Special Counsel Mueller by a 31 point margin, would oppose Trump trying to pardon himself by a 76 point margin, and would oppose Trump pardoning aides or family members by a 42 point margin.

Those are some pretty big numbers, and they show the voters in these purple (competitive) districts may be open to a change. Of particular interest to Democrats may be the bottom chart. It shows that the Democrats in this districts are much more enthusiastic about voting in the 2018 election (61% to 48%).