2021: The New Europe - a Wholly German Empire

Niall Ferguson in the Wall Street Journal writing from the vantage point of 2021 tells the story of how the European Union became the United States of Europe. I have no idea if this is how things will turn out, but it is humarous look at the current crisis with good bits information and commentary thrown in.

The euro is still circulating, though banknotes are now seldom seen. (Indeed, the ease of electronic payments now makes some people wonder why creating a single European currency ever seemed worth the effort.) But Brussels has been abandoned as Europe's political headquarters. Vienna has been a great success.

snip

David Cameron—now beginning his fourth term as British prime minister—thanks his lucky stars that, reluctantly yielding to pressure from the Euroskeptics in his own party, he decided to risk a referendum on EU membership. His Liberal Democrat coalition partners committed political suicide by joining Labour's disastrous "Yeah to Europe" campaign.

Egged on by the pugnacious London tabloids, the public voted to leave by a margin of 59% to 41%, and then handed the Tories an absolute majority in the House of Commons. Freed from the red tape of Brussels, England is now the favored destination of Chinese foreign direct investment in Europe.

Snip

And in 2013, in a historical twist only a few die-hard Ulster Unionists had dreamt possible, the Republic of Ireland's voters opted to exchange the austerity of the U.S.E. for the prosperity of the U.K. Postsectarian Irishmen celebrated their citizenship in a Reunited Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland with the slogan: "Better Brits Than Brussels."


snip

. . . European President Karl von Habsburg . . . still known to close associates by his royal title of Archduke Karl of Austria . . .



For the best laugh of the day read the whole article. Is this close to what will happen? Who knows?

Hat tip to David of Duff and Nonsense.

Carriers in the West Pacific.

Strategy Page has several informative articles on Chinese naval power, and the implications are signifcant.


Shi Lang Headed For Service

April 29, 2011: All indicators are that the new Chinese aircraft carrier, the Shi Lang (formerly Varyag) will go to sea before the end of the year, after nearly nine years of reconstruction and upgrades. Defensive weapons, and more electronics, are being installed now, and major internal work appears to have been completed. snip The Shi Lang/Varyag is one of the Kuznetsov class carriers that Russia began building in the 1980s. - snip - The 323 meter (thousand foot) long ship normally carries a dozen navalized Su-27s (called Su-33s), 14 Ka-27PL anti-submarine helicopters, two electronic warfare helicopters and two search and rescue helicopters. But the ship was meant to regularly carry 36 Su-33s and sixteen helicopters. The ship carries 2,500 tons of aviation fuel, allowing it to generate 500-1,000 aircraft and helicopter sorties. Crew size is 2,500 (or 3,000 with a full aircraft load.) Only two ships of this class exist; the original Kuznetsov, which is in Russian service, and the Varyag.

While this carrier is not of the same class as the American Attack Carriers it will outclass every other navy in the West Pacific, and with first class aircraft could give the US Navy a good fight, especially a task force that was not covered by carriers or land based aircraft. It is certainly a sign of a navy that is growing in from costal defense force to contesting for Admiral Mahan’s control of the seas.

Of course Aircraft Carriers need aircraft.


Chinese Carrier Fighter Shows Its Colors

April 28, 2011: New photos of the Chinese naval fighter, the navalized version of the J-11 (an illegal clone of the Russian Su-27), have appeared. This one is painted in Chinese Navy colors, and appears to be equipped with Chinese made electronics. This all grew out of China obtaining one of the Russian navalized Su-27s (the Su-33) from Ukraine, and taking tech (like the folding wings and beefed up landing gear) from it to navalize their 30 ton J-11 as the J-11BH (formerly the J-15). - snip - The Shi Lang is expected to serve as a training carrier, to prepare naval aviators for service on the two new carriers under construction.

Depending on electronics this is probally not be in the same league as the Navy’s current F-18 and definitely not up to the F-22/F-35 class, but shows that in the relatively near future the Chinese will be building top class military aircraft. The F-22 and F-35 are now the goal for designers to meet and beat, in time the Chinese will have planes that can outdo even the F-18 and compete with the F-22/F-35.


The Second Artillery Corps Versus the USN

April 27, 2011: The Chinese Second Artillery Corps, spread over several provinces, has been expanding over the last few years. This includes adding two brigades apparently armed with the long rumored Chinese anti-ship ballistic missile, the DF-21D. This gives the Second Artillery Corps ten DF-21 brigades, plus brigades with several other types of missiles. snip The DF-21D is mainly intended for use against the USN (U.S. Navy), particularly the aircraft carriers. - snip - While the 500-2,000 kg (.5-2 ton) warhead usually contains a nuclear weapon, it is believed that China also has a conventional warhead. - snip - For example, two years ago, China launched another "remote sensing" satellite, joining two others in a similar orbit. These three birds are moving in formation, at an altitude of 600 kilometers, across the Pacific. Equipped with either radar (SAR, or synthetic aperture radar) or digital cameras, these three birds can scan the ocean for ships, even though the Chinese say their purpose is purely scientific. A typical SAR can produce photo quality images at different resolutions. At medium resolution (3 meters) the radar covers an area 40x40 kilometers. Low resolution (20 meters) covers 100x100 kilometers. This three satellite Chinese posse looks suspiciously like a military ocean surveillance system. This is the missing link for the rumored Chinese ballistic missile system for attacking American aircraft carriers.

Since the end of WWII, coast artillery has not been a concern of the US defense planning, after all there was no navy or combination of navies that could get past the US fleet. In the old communist block that was not the case, defending against the US Navy was a serious problem. The anti-shipping missile that is pretty much ubiquitous now, was first a Russian coast defense weapon. Working with Chinese Navy this modern Coast Artillry could force the US Navy to stand off a good distance from the Chinese coast hampering any effort to support the Philippines, Taiwan, Korea, or Japan.


Analysis

Whe viewing Chinese defense efforts we should not take a solely Amercentic view point. Look at the problem for the Chinese view.

- For decades the Chinese military was hobbled by political direction that was time locked in Mao’s long march. In the last twenty to thirty years China has made a number of improvements that could be described simply as building a self-respecting 21st century force.

- Every country on it’s border is potentially hostile, or a buffer between it and a potentially hostile country. This creates a requirment for a defense force of healthy quality and size.

- With the expansion of it’s industry it is importing a massive amount of oil from the Middle East. The protection of the vital shipping route seems to be a focus of Chinese naval policy. In addition to passing near poteintialy unstable or hostile countries in South East Asia it must cross the Indian Lake Ocean. The Indian Navy is making similar upgrades and is an equivalent force - it is also one of the potentially hostile countries that borders China.

Of course, even though weapons developed for one purpose does not mean they can’t be used for another, the military situation in the Western Pacific is changing.


While much of the US defense and intelligence diplomatic interest thought and planning is bogged down in the sands of the Middle East and worried about new and improved counter insurgency warfare, this appears to be “preparing for the last war.” There are more serious problems that can not be forgotten about.


The days when when the High seas were an Amercan Lake are vanishing. A lot of people in Washington in both parties need to wake up.


See also:

How Not to Fix the Military
Book Review: Echof Battle

East meets West: President Obama in the Middle East

The Ballad of East and West by Rudyard Kipling (background The article is a little long the key part is last quarter of the article.)

Oh, East is East, and West is West, and never the twain shall meet,
Till Earth and Sky stand presently at God's great Judgment Seat;
But there is neither East nor West, Border, nor Breed, nor Birth,
When two strong men stand face to face,
tho' they come from the ends of the earth!


While Kipling is often misunderstood to say East and West can never meet, the point of the the stanza and the poem is that when two strong men stand face to face it is possible for them to meet. Near the end of the poem we are told of the British Officer and the Pathan ruler:

They have looked each other between the eyes, and there they found no fault,
They have taken the Oath of the Brother-in-Blood on leavened bread and salt:
They have taken the Oath of the Brother-in-Blood on fire and fresh-cut sod,
On the hilt and the haft of the Khyber knife, and the Wondrous Names of God.

But before the British officer went on his chase into Pathan territory he was warned:

There is rock to the left, and rock to the right, and low lean thorn between,
And ye may hear a breech-bolt snick where never a man is seen.

He is always at the mercy of the Pathan and if he does not pass muster the trigger will be pulled.

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President Obama this week made a speech in Cairo to the Moslem world laying out his hopes for peace and cooperation. Well delivered as always. It was what his prime consistencies wanted him to say and what his opponents were afraid he would say. He has told the more or less westernized leadership in the Middle East where he coming from. But the real question is are there Moslem "strong men" in control the guns and bombs and will they see a another "strong man" with whom they can take an Oath of the Brother-in-Blood on leavened bread and salt or will they see an just another American politician and tell their followers to pull the trigger.

Well I hope for the best, but with little confidence.

A Game of Chicken

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It appears that Iran has or is going to have nuclear weapons shortly. Which is one thing, to take the President of Iran seriously, he intends to use them. That is something else. As Wretchard of the Belmont Club noted in the his comments section, the evidence is much stronger than for Iraq, but every one now has a much healthier respect for the limitations of any intelligence estimate.

John Keegan (HR:Belmont club) has an article reviewing the difficulties of military action to close down Iran’s nuclear weapons program.

America and the EU3 must therefore consider other, harsher methods to restrain Iran. The fact that the United States at present deploys a large army in Iraq is a factor that must give the ayatollahs pause. To stage a second war in the Middle East would not be a desirable initiative at present for America and would certainly be highly unpopular at home and among its allies. Moreover, Iran, as the possessor of the second largest oil reserves in the world and occupier of a strategic position athwart the sea routes delivering oil to most of the consuming world, has its own means of retaliation ready to hand.

Nevertheless, the West cannot simply let things drift. Military action by whatever agency cannot be written out, but will be a last resort. ... For if the West is considering military action, so are the ayatollahs. ... Moreover, while Iran has its own armoury of medium-range missiles suitable for nuclear delivery, the ayatollahs are also known to favour the placing of nuclear warheads in target cities by terrorists travelling by car or public transport. This is a bad and worrying time in world affairs.


Niall Ferguson has a look at the world war of 2007.

So history repeated itself. As in the 1930s, an anti-Semitic demagogue broke his country's treaty obligations and armed for war. Having first tried appeasement, offering the Iranians economic incentives to desist, the West appealed to international agencies - the International Atomic Energy Agency and the United Nations Security Council. Thanks to China's veto, however, the UN produced nothing but empty resolutions and ineffectual sanctions, like the exclusion of Iran from the 2006 World Cup finals.


Victor David Hanson (HT: Dignified Rant) also discusses the possibilies.

Experts warn that we are not talking about a Clintonian one-day cruise-missile hit, or even something akin to General Zinni’s 1998 extended Operation Desert Fox campaign. Rather, the challenges call for something far more sustained and comprehensive — perhaps a week or two of bombing at every imaginable facility, many of them hidden in suburbs or populated areas. Commando raids might need to augment air sorties, especially for mountain redoubts deep in solid rock



We have a nice little game of chicken.

Allowing a regime like Iran’s to have Nukes is dangerous.

-More so to Iran’s neighbors than to the US. If Iran’s leaders are willing to use nukes against the Israel they are probably willing to use them to solve disputes with other neighbors.

-They probably do not yet have the ability to insure that a nuke is an airburst rather than a ground burst, and even it they do they would be very likely to choose a ground burst against Israel to make the destruction more complete. Ground bursts pick up large amounts of surface material as dust, make it radio active, this is what “falls out.” A ground burst could create radioactive fallout that would impact a large area outside Israel, depending on many variables Chernobyl could be a minor comparison.)

Most every country in the area has a strong desire to see that Iran never uses nukes. The theoretical possibility of fallout patterns covering Western Europe probably explains why the EU3 started their negotiation process and why it is a major issue to them. Except for Europe collectively, probably Israel, maybe Russia depending on what still works, and the US, no country has the ability to take out the nukes unilaterally. But many countries from India to the EU member’s individually have the ability to make a notable contribution.

Neither the US nor Israel wants to go it alone. The other countries do not want to contribute if they can avoid it. So it is a game of chicken, will the US or Israel will jump and go it alone. Or will other counties turn aside from their previous course and sign on to a cooperative effort.



Which makes this snippet of an interview of from the German magazine Spiegel interesting. (HT: David’s Medienkritik

SPIEGEL: How concerned are you about Iran?

Rumsfeld: All of us have to be concerned when a country that important, large and wealthy is disconnected from the normal interactions with the rest of the world. They obviously have certain ambitions, powers and military capabilities ...

SPIEGEL: ...and nuclear ambitions...

Rumsfeld: That's apparently what France, Germany, the UK and the International Atomic Energy Agency have concluded. Everyone wants to have the Iranians as part of the world community, but they aren't yet. Therefore there's less predictability and more danger.

SPIEGEL: The US is trying to make the case in the United Nations Security Council.

Rumsfeld: I would not say that. I thought France, Germany and the UK were working on that problem.

SPIEGEL: What kind of sanctions are we talking about?

Rumsfeld: I'm not talking about sanctions. I thought you, and the U.K. and France were.

SPIEGEL: You aren't?

Rumsfeld: I'm not talking about sanctions. You've got the lead. Well, lead!

SPIEGEL: You mean the Europeans.

Rumsfeld: Sure. My Goodness, Iran is your neighbour. We don't have to do everything!

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For the tyrants must come down an' dictators frown
When our Uncle named Sam says "Stop"!
(Poor beggars! -- we're sent to say "Stop"!)


I know responsibilities, wanted or not, come with being the worlds only super power, but IMHO it is someone else’s turn to say “STOP”!.