Haq's Musings

Riaz Haq writes this data-driven blog to provide information, express his opinions and make comments on many topics. Subjects include personal activities, education, South Asia, South Asian community, regional and international affairs and US politics to financial markets. For investors interested in South Asia, Riaz has another blog called South Asia Investor at http://www.southasiainvestor.com and a YouTube video channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCkrIDyFbC9N9evXYb9cA_gQ

Showing posts with label Trade Deficit. Show all posts

Sunday, July 10, 2022

India's Forex Reserves Fall As Foreign Investors Head For The Exits

India's foreign exchange reserves are falling rapidly as foreign investors flee and the country's trade and current account deficits widen. More than $267 billion worth of India's external debt of the total $621 billion is due for repayment in the next nine months. This repayment is equivalent to about 44% of India's foreign exchange reserves. This combination of investors' exodus, widening twin deficits and short-term debt repayments has caused the Indian rupee to hit new lows. Unlike China and other nations that have accumulated large reserves by running trade surpluses, India runs perennial trade and current account deficits. The top contributor to India's forex reserves is debt which accounts for 48%. Portfolio equity investments known as “hot” money or speculative money flows account for 23% of India's forex reserves, according to an analysis published by The Hindu BusinessLine.

India's Declining Forex Reserves. Source: Business Standard

Investor Exodus:

Foreign portfolio investors have pulled out a whopping $33.5 billion from equity and $2.1 billion from debt segments of Indian financial markets, for a total net outflow of $35.6 billion from October 2021 to June 2022, according to data compiled by the National Securities Depository Limited. In the first half of this calendar year, the total net outflows were $29.7 billion.

It's not just the FPIs leaving India; a number of multinational companies are also pulling foreign direct investment (FDI) from India. Several big names including German retailer Metro AG, Swiss building-materials firm Holcim, US automaker Ford, UK banking major Royal Bank of Scotland, US motorcycle manufacturer Harley-Davidson and US banking behemoth Citibank have chosen to pull the plug on their operations in India or downsize their presence in recent years.

Widening Deficits:

India's finance ministry has warned of a growing twin deficit problem, with higher commodity prices and rising subsidy burden leading to an increase in both the fiscal and current account deficits. India's June trade deficit widened to a record high of $25.63 billion, mainly due to a rise in crude oil and coal imports, from $9.61 billion a year earlier. India's April-May fiscal deficit was $25.8 billion.

Summary:

India's current level of forex reserves is enough for less than 10 months of imports projected for 2022-23. But the country has had a structural current account deficit which has been funded by large capital inflows. The accumulation of forex reserves has been due to surplus in the capital account. Since late February, the foreign exchange reserves have declined by $36 billion. India still has large forex reserves but its economy is in the same boat as other emerging markets that run large and worsening trade and current account deficits. With declining forex reserves, India is likely to face headwinds as the US Federal Reserves raises interest rates to fight inflation.

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Thursday, December 9, 2021

How Has India Built Large Forex Reserves Despite Perennial Trade Deficits?

India's forex reserves of nearly $640 billion are the 4th largest in the world despite the fact that it runs trade deficits year after year. Other nations among the top 5 with the biggest US dollar reserves are China ($3.4 trillion), Japan ($1.4 trillion) , Switzerland ($1.1 trillion) and Russia ($623 billion). They have all accomplished this feat by running large trade surpluses for many years.

History of India's Trade Deficits in billions of US dollars. Source: Trading Economics

So how did India manage to build over $600 billion in US dollar reserves? The top contributor to India's reserves is debt which accounts for 48%. Portfolio equity investments are known as “hot” money or speculative money flows accounted for 23% of India's forex reserves, according to an analysis published by The Hindu BusinessLine.

While India has accumulated the largest forex reserves in its history, its debt to GDP ratio is also nearing an all-time record of 90%, the highest in the South Asia region. India's debt has risen by 17% of its GDP in the last two years, the most of any emerging economy. By contrast, Pakistan's debt to GDP ratio has increased by a mere 1.6% to 87.2% from 2019 to 2020.

India's Rising Debt. Source: Business Standard

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected the Indian government debt, including that of the center and the states, to rise to a record 90.6% of gross domestic product (GDP) during 2021-22 against 89.6% in the previous year. By contrast, the percentage of Pakistan's public debt to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) including debt from the International Monetary Fund, and external and domestic debt has fallen from 87.6% in Fiscal Year (FY) 2019-20 to 83.5% in FY 2020-21.

While large reserves are a source of comfort in terms of balance of payments and currency stability, it also has significant downsides. The biggest risk is the interest rates on the debt (accounting for 48% of India's US$ reserves) which depend heavily on the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Should the Fed decide to raise interest rates to tighten money supply amid inflation concerns, the cost of servicing the US dollar denominated debt will rise.

The second big worry is that the "hot money" accounting for 23% of India's US$ reserves could suddenly decide to leave India for better returns elsewhere. This happened in the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997-98. It began in Thailand and then quickly spread to neighboring economies. Initially, it was a currency crisis when Bangkok unpegged the Thai baht from the U.S. dollar that set off a series of currency devaluations and massive flights of capital.

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Pakistani-American Woman Featured in Netflix Documentary "Pandemic"

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Can Pakistan Effectively Respond to Coronavirus Outbreak?

How Grim is Pakistan's Social Sector Progress?

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Wednesday, November 17, 2021

Musharraf Era Textile Boom Returning to Pakistan?

Pakistan textile industry is booming with exports soaring 27% to more than $6 billion in the first four months (July-October) of the current fiscal year. “We believe that $5 billion investment (in textile industry) in the Musharraf era would be matched in the next six to eight months” says Zubair Motiwala, a leading textile industrialist and chairman of Businessmen Group (BMG), as quoted in the Pakistani media reports. Pakistan textile exports more than doubled from $5.2 billion to more than $11 billion during Musharraf years. Exports soared 19.43% in 2001, 20% in 2004, 24.5% in 2005 and 11.23% in 2006, all on President Musharraf's watch, according to "The Rise and Fall of Pakistan's Textile Industry: An Analytical View" published by Javed Memon, Abdul Aziz and Muhammad Qayyum.

Pakistan Textile Exports Growth. Source: Javed Memon

Pakistani government officials report that the textile sector has invested $3-3.5 billion on modernization and expansion in the last 2-3 years and the investment is likely to match the $5 billion that was witnessed during Musharraf era when the sector was undergoing major modernization, balancing and replacement (BMR). Textile machinery imports jumped 110% in the last four months, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS). Capital equipment imports are contributing to Pakistan's widening trade gap.

Pakistan Textile Exports Boom. Source: Bloomberg

All sectors of the textile industry from yarn to fabric to ready-made garments are experiencing double digit growth. Ready-made garments exports jumped 22.34% during July-Oct 2021, knitwear exports soared 35.45%, bed-wear posted positive growth of 21.30%, towel exports were up by 14.17%, cotton cloth rose 18.54%. Among primary commodities, cotton yarn exports surged by 71.39%, while yarn other than cotton by 114%. The export of made-up articles — excluding towels — rose by 11.55%, and tents, canvas and tarpaulin dipped by a massive 23.98% during the 4-month period.

International Comparison of Textile Machinery Imports. Source: Business Recorder

History of Pakistan Textile Machinery Imports 2004-2021 in Millions of US$. Source: Ali Khizar

The textile industry is very important for Pakistan's economy. It is a very large employer and contributes nearly 10% of GDP. Textile exports account for more than half of Pakistan's exports. Unfortunately, the textile industry has stagnated in the last 12 years. Textile boom is good news for the country's economy.

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Tuesday, October 12, 2021

Soaring Prices of Imported LNG Threaten Pakistan's Economic Recovery

Soaring LNG prices are adversely affecting Pakistan's balance of payments and threatening the nation's post-COVID economic recovery. Pakistan's trade deficit has widened to nearly $12 billion in July-September 2021 quarter, up more than 100% from the same period last year. The nation's heavy reliance on expensive imported energy has been the main cause of prior balance of payments crises that have forced it to seek IMF bailouts more than a dozen times in the last 70 years.

Global LNG Prices. Source: The Peninsula Qatar

Pakistan: World's Fastest Growing LNG Market. Source: Bloomberg

Global Commodity Price Increases

The average LNG price for November delivery into Northeast Asia was estimated at about $32 per metric million British thermal units (mmBtu), up nearly 20 percent from the previous week, according to the Peninsula Qatar publication. Price agency S&P Global Platts said on Thursday that its Japan-Korea-Marker, which is widely used as a benchmark for spot LNG contracts, rose to $34.47 per mmBtu.

Pakistan Trade Stats. Source: Topline Securities

Rising LNG prices have forced power generating companies in Pakistan, Bangladesh and the Middle East to start switching fuels pushing oil prices higher. About 60% of Pakistan's current LNG needs are covered by long-term contracts at significantly lower prices than the current spot prices. US crude closed above $80 for the first time since late in 2014, bringing its climb since the end of last October to 125%, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Pakistan Coal Power Plants Under CPEC. Source:China's Global Power Database

All Pakistani Power Plants Under CPEC. Source: China's Global Power Database

The key to Pakistan managing its current accounts lies in reducing reliance on imported energy and dramatically increasing its exports. Pakistan already faces climate change pressures forcing it to change its energy mix to reduce the use of fossil fuels.

Pakistan's Malik Amin Aslam with CNN's Becky Anderson

Malik Amin Aslam, Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan's special assistant on climate change, said recently in an interview with CNN that his country is seeking to change its energy mix to favor green. He said Pakistan's 60% renewable energy target would to be based on solar, wind and hydro power projects, and 40% would come from hydrocarbon and nuclear which is also low-carbon. “Nuclear power has to be part of the country’s energy mix for future as a zero energy emission source for clean and green future,” he concluded. Here are the key points Aslam made to Becky Anderson of CNN:

1. Pakistan wants to be a part of the solution even though it accounts for less than 1% of global carbon emissions.

2. Extreme weather events are costing Pakistan significant losses of lives and property. Pakistan is among the countries most vulnerable to the effects of climate change.

3. Pakistan is moving towards renewable energy by converting 60% of its energy mix to renewable by 2030. Electric vehicle (EV) transition is also beginning in his country.

4. Aslam said: “We are one of the world leaders on nature based solutions. However, the World Bank (WB) in its Report yesterday came up with really good numbers in a comparison done of countries who are shifting their mainstream development towards environment friendly policies and Pakistan came atop among them,” the SAPM explained.

900 MW Zonergy Solar Park in Bhawalpur, Pakistan

To a question on Pakistan’s capacity to make investments in nature based solutions, he said, “We cannot afford not to do it….that’s a cliche in our country and we are living that cliche in Pakistan. We are not just talking the climate talk rather doing climate action in Pakistan.”

1,100 MW Karachi Nuclear Power Plant Unit 2

To a question on the 26th Conference of Parties (COP-26) under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Amin said his country’s revised "national determined contributions" (NDCs) are going to be released next week. “….that’s going to clearly tell the world that this (money) we had spent in nature and could do further and that was also our direction,” he added. The SAPM informed that Pakistan was going to COP 26 with a very clear message that the country has been affected by climate change, climate injustice, adding, “but we are one of the countries that are leading the way to nature based solutions.”

Pakistan Among Top 3 Countries For Newly Installed Hydro

He cited the WB Report and said 44% of the country’s mainstream development was climate friendly investment and it had doubled in the past one year. He said 60% renewable energy target would to be based on solar, wind and hydro power projects, and 40% would come from hydrocarbons and nuclear which is also low-carbon. “Nuclear power has to be part of the country’s energy mix for future as a zero energy emission source for clean and green future,” he concluded.

Installed Wind Power in Pakistan. Source: Modor Intelligence

It's noteworthy that Pakistan's neighbor India currently generates 70% of its electricity from coal extracted from Indian coal mine. It is aiming for renewables and nuclear energy to account for 40% of its installed electricity capacity by 2030.