Alberto Contador On His Final Angliru : Climbing Speed & Power to Weight Ratio

This post is modeled on the calculation method shown in a past post where I calculated Contador's VAM and power to weight ratio on the Angliru during the 2008 Vuelta a'Espana.

Today, Contador won the final mountain stage of the Vuelta, and again on the Alto d'Angliru.

My preliminary calculation suggests that Contador climbed 950 height meters in a time of roughly 35 minutes. I clocked his climbing time from the 9.3K to go mark.

The estimation is therefore :

The Ferrari method to estimate power to watt ratio is therefore :

His VAM today is less than my estimation for his 2008 VAM (done for the last 4K and quite high due to road steepness in the last sections), his power to weight ratio is also less than my estimation for his 2008 power to weight ratio. 

However, reductions seem reasonable for a man at the twilight of his career and do not make room for suspicion. The power to weight ratio displayed at the end of a grand tour is remarkable nevertheless.

This is a clean performance unless further data instructed otherwise. 

The calculations are based on the following raw data.

Robic's Crash Scene

The scene of Jure Robic's fatal crash that left him dead is below. I was a bit late to the news but boy was I shocked to hear this. One day a great champion, next day, your number is up. I wonder if Robic had the chance to spend time with all the people he cared for before he passed on. 

Life's so short and precious that often I wonder about all the things you miss when you spend all your damn time and life around a dum bicycle, you know. I mean, so many other things matter more in life, doesn't it? 

Please take care out there while you exercise. While we mull at the loss, here's an interview that NYTimes did with Robic back in 2006.

Johan Museeuw Trained Hard

A man who knew how to train properly to overcome adversity was Johan Museeuw. He was known for his gradual approach to training, his belief in his training ideas and his ability to focus on training so he could return to racing when his cycling career seemed to be over - a couple of times.

A wicked crash on the slick cobblestones of the Arenberg Forest in the 1998 Paris-Roubaix, the queen of one-day racing classics, almost ended his career. Gangrene set in because of improper cleaning of a knee wound by medical personnel, and they almost had to amputate the leg. As it turned out, they didn't amputate the leg, and Museeuw responded by recovering, training and coming up with a win in the 2000 Paris-Roubaix. Tragedy struck again when he crashed on his motorcycle in the summer of 2000. He fought back yet again for another Paris-Roubaix win in 2002, among other victories.

Museeuw's glory started in a small way, but he kept stretching his personal limits. In his first race outside of Belgium, the Tour of Austria, Museeuw finished the first stage 30 minutes behind the winner. He was alone, numb from the cold, and reportedly crying on his bike. He did not abandon the race though. In the same manner, he would continue to break down barriers during the remainder of his career - with dogged determination.

Museeuw was infamous for training alone for periods as long as 4 months. He knew his specific training goals would not be achievable in large groups. He would ride ruthlessly into the wind for hours on end. When he adopted heart rate training later in his career, he took himself into the red repeatedly on hard days, for unbearably long periods. He would impose kilometer per hour "basements" on some training rides  - on the order of 43 kmph (27mph) - and he'd refuse his body when it told him to slow down.

Museeuw's good friend and teammate (and world class racer in his own right) Wilfried Peeters says of Museeuw, "Out of 100 pros, 95 won't be able to deal with Johan's training rhythm. A young rider who tries to constantly keep up with him will, so to speak, destroy his body. Johan has both the body and the willpower to work those heavy training schedules. He sometimes has some riders that live in his region ride with him, but very few can keep up for a few days in a row."

Peeters explains that after brutal group training rides, Museeuw would ride another half hour extra, because it was mentally very important to him.

These words were from the book Cycling Fast by Robert Panzera, a USA Cycling certified coach and NSCA-certified strength and conditioning specialist.

In order to stay a bit more objective on the subject of Johan's superhuman performances, I will also include the fact that he was imprisoned (suspended) for 10 months for allegedly using human growth hormones and other substances to boost his strength, red blood cell count and recovery time. He had stood trial for his part in a ring alleged to have funneled EPO and other doping substances from a Belgian veterinarian to pro riders.

Turns out, critical reading is essential when reading any glorified literature about any athlete these days. Its an utter shame.

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Tour TT Statistics & Contador's Climbing Abilities Reviewed

The 2010 Tour de France, the last one of this decade, draws to a close. Alberto Contador, the consummate cyclist of our times, has nearly clinched his third Tour de France title as he and his team roll into Paris today. This will be his 5th Grand Tour win in a row, and he has everything under the sun from the Giro d'Italia to the Vuelta a España. He is at the level of Lemond, Bobet and Thys. Meanwhile, Andy Schleck made slow but steady improvements in his time trialing to give El Pistolero a serious run for his money.

TT STATISTICS

I was hoping to shed a bit of interesting light across both last year's and this year's time trial stages at the Tour. See below. 

1. 2009 TdF Prologue.  Let's go back a year. This was the profile of the opening prologue if you'll recall :

This was how the resulting times played out.

A nearly normal distribution. I used a 0.2 minute bin width. 180 riders started, gave their best. Average time was 20"20' and the average of each rider's time variation from this mean was 0.63 min, or 37.6 seconds. More people tended to perform better than average than not. It was short. Legs were fresh so a violent effort. There were 2 or 3 out there in the land of under-performance.


2. 2009 TdF Final TT.  This was its profile :

This was how the results were distributed. 

By stage 18, just 158 riders remained to time trial compared to 180 who had started. 22 riders said "I'm done, thank you very much", that's 12% of the peloton who were missing. Contador surprisingly, beat Cancellara by some precise pacing strategies (a topic that was explored in depth by the SportsScientists). The fastest guys could do this 40K course (25 miles) in 48 and a half minutes. Andy Schleck performed better than 86% of the rest and he was 1 min 44 sec slower than Contador. Menchov posted just close to average times but he must have been toast from the long Giro season earlier (racing against a doped up Italian challenger is not so easy, as it goes). Towards the end, everyone must have been cooked 80% anyway. More riders tended to perform slower than the average times. 83 are slower than some 72 . The average spread is close to 2 min.

3. 2010 TdF Prologue. This was its profile. A much shorter route than last year.

This was how the results were distributed.

The fastest man covered 9K in 10 minutes. Contador, meanwhile, didn't give his best like last year. Taking it easy? A big field - 197 riders - raced, posting a mean time of a little over 11 min with a spread of just about half a minute. Schleck was embedded in the average. Menchov was slightly better than him. Overall, again, more riders tended to go fast with violent effort and perform better than the average than not. A few were cast way out in in the world of under-performance. What on earth were they thinking?
 
4. 2010 Final TT. This was the profile. Very flat but was this a welcome respite for the riders?

 Not really. This was how the race results played out.

The headwinds were brutal. But again, the same names were out there in the front, the best guns (Martin, Cancellara) could pedal a little over 30 miles in an hour. Stop to think about that. And the average time was 1 hour 8 min or so and the spread much bigger than last year - almost 2 and a half minutes. More riders tended to perform worse than the average. Over 85 riders were better than the rest. Contador appeared to be struggling. Schleck, who does better than 73% of the field, is even worse than Contador, but just by 31 sec!

Menchov, though, was the big surprise as he had a big leap in performance - what I'll call a 2x2! He raced faster than Contador, beating him by almost 2 mins. Furthermore, he had beaten Sanchez by exactly 2 mins to seal that 3rd place on the podium (the most un-talked news yesterday). Also note that out of 197 riders who began the Tour, 27 riders had quit, meaning 14% of the peloton were missing. Comparable to the 12% last year who had also quit by the final time trial.

From all this data, one can understand that the Tour has been even getting challenging for riders and the number of casualties are higher this year than 2009. Contador's placings in time trials have taken a toll over the last one year. He has not won a single stage at the Tour either. What is the matter, fans wonder? Illness again? Tiredness? Lack of ability? The champion who beat an ever consistent Cancellara last year looks vulnerable more than ever. GC contenders who want to beat him must tap into this 30 second time trial weakness.


CONTADOR'S CLIMBING PERFORMANCES

On the climbing front, Contador has posted consistent values in climbing performance over the past years. The following table was put together by me after reviewing a bunch of people's calculations. I took the averages of all their numbers and integrated them into the table with average VAM's. This will hopefully average out the error from each person's math, instead of sticking to just one inflated/underinflated number.

With these approximations on the climbs, we find Contador stands somewhere at 5.9-6.1 W/kg average in Grand Tours, not considering the 2008 Giro d'Italia. The big surges in performance were on the long climbs at Verbier and Angliru, which were massive efforts and on the short-steep Côte de la Croix Neuve, which was a little over 1 mile long and 10% average in average grade. That must have been one violent effort to cut 10 seconds into Andy's time. Readers can verify these numbers or put a reality check on it if they choose.

It will be interesting to see how Alberto Contador and Andy Schleck perform in future. Thanks to them for what will be great memories.

For your pleasure, here's the Col de la Croix Neuve attack from Contador to top this post off.

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Col du Tourmalet Climb Analysis From 2010 TdF Stage 17

Today's mountain top finish involved the climbing of 18.4 km of the western side of Tourmalet (see detailed 3D terrain here), from Luz-Saint-Sauvier onwards. The Tourmalet is the queen of all climbs in the Tour de France and the roads here are some of the highest in France. The Henri Degranges prime was won on the summit by none other than the lanky, steely looking Luxembourgian Andy Schleck, but he did not manage to gain any time advantage on the Spanish climber Contador as the latter finished an inch away from him. Andy promised a strong effort today to aim one last time for the yellow jersey before the final time trial. It didn't happen as planned.

How It Happened :

1. At 18.4 to go, the leaders were in one group of some 10 riders. The speed, as reported on Eurosport at 19K to go was some 25 kmph. But this was on a mild gradient before the Tourmalet officially began (we can assume their speed dropped by 2 Kmph when the gradient kicked in) . At this point, they had 3:59 seconds advantage over the chasing pack.

2. When the leaders had 18K to go, the chasing group with the favorites had just passed the 20K to go sign.

3.       Time Gap 

 = Time To Finish (Slower) - Time to Finish (Faster Leaders)

Knowing the time advantage of 3:59s (0.066 h), speed of leaders = 23 kmph, and distances left for each as stated above, speed of the chasing pack at 20K to go is then calculated by :

Speed = 20 / [0.066 + (18/23)] = 23.58 kmph ~ 14.7mph

This speed is high as the sections before the foot of the climb were only gradual.

4. When the leaders were at 10.1 K to go, Carlos Barredo from the chasing pack attacks. The time gap to the leaders drop steadily per kilometer.

5. Andy Schleck who is also in the pack chances upon the opportunity to make something happen. With 10K to go he accelerated and passed Barredo. Contador marked Schleck and took his wheel. Both go hand in hand up the climb, eating up into the time advantage of the leaders (by now, their group had also splintered due to several attacks within.

6. The time gap drops rapidly per kilometer after Schleck's attack (see graph below). How rapid is the Contador-Schleck surge? In a matter of 1.6 km, they completely destroyed the advantage of 1:21s enjoyed at the front by Katusha rider Alexandr Kolobnev. He was caught and passed at 8.4K to go in a matter of 28:30s from the start base of the climb.

7. From hereon, Contador and Schleck are the leaders. With 5K to go, they had a 1:15s advantage on the chasers.

8. Alberto tested Andy's legs by giving it a go at 3.8K to go. Andy responded and trivialized the effort but surprisingly, he did not counterattack. Perhaps both may have found that they were at their absolute limits and hence decided to ride to the summit without any further attacks. There was no sprint to the line but the finishing speed as reported on Eurosport was 14.4 kmph, with a margin of 1:30s over the chasing group. Andy gave a hug to Bert on the summit while the latter winked at Andy and patted his face. "You know, we really are the best around here..."

Data & Calculations :

1. Weather : 10 deg C, low visibility with bit of snow in the morning, overcast with a weak wind from the SW, according to Metro News France. Wind can be consequential to the race. Racers like Carlos Sastre know it.  However without a CFD analysis or something similarly sophisticated, the wind vectors are hard to predict given the number of switchbacks, trees, spectators & vehicles. A theoretical analysis of its effect on power to weight ratio was given here for perspectives sake.

2. Procedure : Climb profile divided into 18 sections was borrowed from Velopeloton. Grade was extracted for each individual kilometer. Using a mammoth Eurosport footage recorded using 18 GB of hard drive space (phew), the racers were timed on these 18 sections using my stopwatch with an error of +/- 2 sec. Time gaps/advantages and VAM's were also extracted/timed from the footage video. Power to weight ratio was then calculated with Ferrari's formula using VAM, taking into account the grade of each of the 18 sections. An analysis done this fashion, is a bit on the conservative side opposed to one assuming a constant grade and constant ground velocity. From the perspective of drafting, this analysis is a bit on the overestimating side. All in all, the VAM method is between those two. So for Watts/kg, it is good to represent a figure obtained from this method with an error tolerance of +/- 0.2 W/kg.

3. Change of time gap per kilometer : As shown below : 

4. Climb Time : Time taken by Contador & Schleck to complete climb was approx. 53 mins 25 seconds for 18.4 kms according to race footage. However, from Horner's power output file, it was determined the he took some 52 minutes 22 seconds to climb which puts the leaders at 50:37. This is the figure I will use (with some caution because this depends on how it was operated on). It is quite challenging to put this into perspective with previous editions of the Tour. Data is lacking and I have had to pour into past Cycling News reports to extract any sort of approx. information. I have put together what I could glean in the following table. Please do review it, correct me, or help me fill in the blanks if you can. 

5. Average speed for climb : Av. speed of the duo from calculations (after passing Kolobnev) = 12.62 mph for 8 km. From Eurosport live online, their finishing speed was recorded to be 9 mph. 

6. Average power to weight ratio : Prior to getting caught, Kolobnev and his group exhibited approximately 5.5 W/kg +/- 0.2 W/kg. Average for Contador-Schleck was 6.03 W/kg +/- 0.2 W/kg for 8km after passing Kolobnev. See speed and power to weight ratio below :

7. Climbing Rate (VAM/Ascention Speed) : Average VAM or climbing speed (see detailed explanation for climbing rate) after Schleck and Contador overtook Kolobnev was 1696.5 m/hr. The change of VAM with grade is exhibited below for the parties in the Kolobnev group before the catch and the Schleck-Contador breakaway after the leaders were caught.

Power Meter Data

Both Chris Sorensen and Chris Horner put forth hard efforts during the climb. Surprisingly, Horner made it with the group of chasers and he was the best placed Radioshack rider. As and when I see powermeter information about their efforts, it will be appended here for review/comparisons. The trend of releasing powermeter data is limited in that it monitors only a few riders for a limited amount of time/kilometers before they are expended. But it is should be the most objective indicator of performance, while heart rate is the best indicator of effort. 

UPDATE : Chris Horner's Power Output file from SRM is shown below. His average power output is 5.65 W/kg for the entire climb. Relates very well to my estimate envelope of 5.5 +/- 0.2 W/kg as stated above. Notice that SRM missed out on publishing this cyclist's HR value. It is absolutely important to know his effort intensity level. Viewing such information without HR is as good as no information.

Some Limited Footage

Found on Youtube for your pleasure : 

Part 1 :

Part 2 :

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The Quiet Goombah

"The former Soviet state of Kazakhstan is the size of Western Europe, and is not so much of its own country as its own planet, a vast sameness of boreal forests and grasslands, boiling in summer and frozen in winter, a land the Soviets found ideal for growing wheat and testing nuclear bombs - 470 tests between 1949 and 1989, most of them thoughtfully done on Sundays, so as not to disrupt the happy productivity of the proletariat. The ensuing years have only added to its charms : the rivers are so syrupy with toxins that they can't manage the trick of freezing; the rails of the trans-Siberian railroad are so elaborately twisted by frost that passenger trains cannot exceed thirteen mph. Kazakhstan, in short, is the perfect hothouse in which young cyclists may bloom."[1]

That's where the story of a stoic all-rounder began. He mumbled softly in press conferences, but spoke boldly with his legs. His enigmatic persona was only overwhelmed by his resilient desire to win. There are few who possessed his attacking style, fewer who could bring the theatrics that he gifted to any race.

A little Kazakh - Alexander Nikolaivich Vinokourov - was born on November 16, 1973 to his farming parents. At the age of 13, he applied for a position at the Spartan-like sports academy of Almaty with the burning desire of becoming a pro rider. From then on, he and his 13 colleagues were given extraordinary harsh training; up to three times a day they gave everything they had in their young bodies, in series of continuous labor. One hour at the crack of dawn, a three-hour trip right after the first meal of the day, and then another 2 times, 60 minutes going into the red right after the obligatory resting period: an education that can either break or make a person.

"Vino became known as one of the hardest of cycling’s hard breed: the Eastern Bloc goombahs; riders who had been selected as children, their growth plates and femurs carefully measured by state examiners, their biotype profiles matched against that of a “superior child,” and who were duly whisked away to the barracks of various sports schools throughout the Soviet empire. Once there, their life became an endless series of training exercises, the governing philosophy of which was summed up by a former coach: “You throw a carton of eggs against the wall, then keep the ones which do not break.” " [1]

When he was 16, the big day had come. The sports academy didn't have anything left to teach Vinokourov and his classmates. The West, where the beating heart of cycling lay, was calling. In the fall of 1996, Gilles Mas, assistant DS of the Casino pro team, received a letter from the Kazakhstani national coach. The offer: the 6 best young guns of the entire batch. The question:  Could he land a spot in the pro peloton for these guys?

Mas decided to take two of them, on probation. The Frenchman realized that fitting in Vinokourov and Mizourov - the two chosen ones - wouldn't be so easy, so he decided to install them at EC Saint-Etienne Loire, an amateur team, for a year. 

He showed up at the French amateur EC Saint Etienne Loire in 1997 with a rucksack on his shoulder and a coach's note in his pocket that sketched out the outline of his story. The wall had come down, and Vino had come to race bikes.

Vino quickly learned French and adapted well, but Mizourov became extremely homesick and was replaced with Andreï Kivilev, one of Vino’s classmates in Almaty. Together, they found shelter with their host family.

Vino was not taken seriously. From the beginning to others, he looked like he was nine - bright blond hair, pink ears - with an affection for shiny shorts and fat gold necklaces. Coy, of brief words, he resembled a cross between a mafioso and an elf. At first people assumed it was because he didn't know French, but was that really so?

"He knew it was fine. He just didn't talk. His background was, and remained, a blank slate. His parents were reported to have been chicken farmers in Petropavlovsk, but he would not speak of it. When he did speak, which was about once a week, it was in short, pointed sentences, so simple that it was like listening to Japanese poetry :

I will ride hard today.

The hill is not steep.

I will attack them. " [1]

Mas immediately understood that he made the right choice, especially since Vinokourov was tearing apart the amateur circuit. Soon it is clear that he was way too good for the éspoirs. One year later, the Kazakhstani made his first appearance in the pro peloton. The neo-pro immediately won the 4 Days of Dunkirk and the Circuit des Mines; later in the season he would add stage wins in the Tour of Poland and the Tour de L’Oise to that.

From there on, things only got better, and that’s almost an understatement - the Amstel Gold Race, the Dauphiné Liberé, the Tour of Valencia, the Tour of Germany, Tour of Switzerland, twice Paris-Nice, twice Liege-Bastogne- Liege, summer Olympics Road Race (2nd), the Vuelta a Espana and stage wins in just about every stage race of importance! The stats are remarkable. In his pro career since 1999 up until now, Vino has had 108 podium finishes :  forty eight 1st place wins, thirty 2nd places  and thirty 3rd places. 

Talent, power, character, money: Vinokourov has plenty of it all. A house in Monaco, a huge villa in the surroundings of Nice, some real estate here and there in Kazakhstan.

"But the man who raises his daughter Irina and his twin sons Nikolas and Kiril together with his spouse Svetlana also has a very big heart. The boy that grew up in miserable circumstances never forgot  where he came from. From his first public celebration in his country, he brought gifts with him for his colleagues, who had to work with a lot less than he. He donated 5 brand new Pinarello bikes to the Kazakhstani Cycling Union, and his club in Petrapavlovsk got 20 cycling kits, including shoes." [2]

Perhaps the biggest sadness in his life came when he lost his classmate, the same friend and companion he had raced with in his young years in the 80's - Andreï Kivilev. The 29 year old Kazakh climber crashed some 20 km from the finish during the second stage of the 2003 Paris-Nice and lay motionless on the ground, his skull crushed, his ribs shattered. Next morning, he died in a coma on his hospital bed. The dangerous sport of cycling had taken yet another victim. His shocking departure was the reason the UCI even enforced the compulsory wearing of helmets in all endorsed races.

"We were always there for each other," said a heart broken Vinokourov of Kivilev. "We raced for the first time together in 1986, and took the same road through the national team to the 1996 Olympics in Atlanta. We turned pro at the same time, Andrei with Festina, me with Casino. To lose one of my best friends is really bad. We were such a strong gang; the Kazakhs are a strong family."

In memory for his friend, Vino founded the Andreï Kivilev Foundation, a charity fund that provides for Andreï’s wife and children, as well as for his parents, brothers and sisters that he supported during his career.  “Being a famous cyclist opens many doors. It would be a shame if I wouldn’t put that in good use," he said. "I want to make some people’s lives a bit more bearable than they are now, in my own way.”

A year after his comeback, in the same characteristic style, Vino eluded the best sprinters of the world today, won the stage and added another brilliant feather to his cap. Meanwhile, Ned Boutling, a strong Vino critic wrote thus about him :

"For 4 or 5 years, and in an era dominated by the monotony of US Postal victories set against the fading star of his T-Mobile teammate Jan Ullrich, Vinokourov had been the thrill-seeker. He could be a one-man firework one day, and embark on the most suicidal of escapades. And the very next day he could disappear altogether, only to reemerge a few days down the line in true Lazarus fashion. He was loved. You could even say he was best thing about those Tours." 

Any doubt?

[1] Dan Coyle, "Lance Armstrong's War"
[2] www.Gva.be
Many thanks to translation from Daily Peloton, stats from CQ Ranking, interviews from Cycling News, photos from Graham Watson.

ADDITIONAL READING :


The Alberto Contador You Did Not Know

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Cadel Evans And His Book 'Close to Flying'

I can't believe this was on Youtube and it garnered just 400 views. Here it is again, ABC Radio's interview with a fantastic athlete. (Recall I wrote before on how both his power to weight ratio and VO2 max were greater than Armstrong's when both were at their peak). His new book sells for 70 dollars and change on Amazon. I hear he's a good cook so there better be some tasty recipes in there for that price.

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The Anatomy Of A Cancellara Attack

Writeup updated slightly on June 3, 2010


So dear readers, quick recap : there's this idea floating around of Swiss rider Fabian Cancellara using an electric motor at the classics. It seems to have originated at the rumor mills of il Italia and a couple of journalists, an ex-pro cyclist and a little known e-bike maker are in the thick of it. Meanwhile, Fabian tossed out a statement today in the press calling hogwash to these claims. Hey, the truth is out there...

Last evening, I spent some time re-watching 2010 Paris Roubaix clips. My focus was upon the attack from Cancellara with 48k to go. To me, there were three segments to this attack :

"..can we dissect this attack and see its parts to get a perspective of what's happening?"

1) At 55K remaining, there were a lead group of 40 favorites at the front. They included Tom Boonen (Quick Step), Fabian Cancellara (Saxo Bank), Filippo Pozzato (Katusha), Adam Hansen (HTC-Columbia), George Hincapie (BMC Racing Team), Leif Hoste (Omega Pharma-Lotto) etc.

2) In the next 2 or 3K, the group splintered. Leif Hoste, Björn Leukemans, Frederic Guesdon and Sébastien Hinault pushed to the front.

3) At 49 K to go, Fabian Cancellara surged ahead from the bunch to join the four leaders. In a few seconds, he took one sideways look behind him, saw that the title defender Boonen had decided not to mark him down. Riis, the team manager, radioed to him. "Go". Yup, it was a bad move from the Belgian champion. Fabian was then gone and the rest is history.

The jump Fabian put forth was strong and decisive. To most of us, watching the surge (see video below) may seem almost like, well, like he had a motor somewhere on the bike. How on earth can he pull away so quick, right? Well the Italians asked that hard question and came up with the answer - 'Oh mio dio, he has a motor on his bike!'

But regardless of whether he used a motor or not, can we dissect this attack and see its parts to get a perspective of what's happening? I think we could.

So I used a physics analysis software and some basic physics to get an idea of the speed and acceleration involved in this attack. This may seem pretty ghetto to some of you but perspective is what ultimately matters.

STEPS

1) First, I downloaded the above video of the action from Youtube. I cut the video segment only to the points of interest, from 2:07 to 2:22 or so. I eventually a few hundred frames at 25 frames/second. I decided a timestep of about 0.03-0.04 seconds would be more than adequate to the capture the stages of the action.

2) I scaled the segment with a known dimension of some entity. That entity was going to be Cancellara's 58cm Specialized bike. I looked up its specs and found out that the wheelbase of the frame is pretty close to 100 cm or 1m. Good enough.

3) I imagined myself seated inside the TV helicopter, shining a path co-ordinate axis down at the action below, somewhere in the middle of the screen. I reckoned that the zoom and pan from the helicopter camera would create complexities, but luckily for me, there was not much. The cameraman in the helicopter had kept his focus remarkably steady on the racers, without much shaking and distraction. There was a bit, but I knew exactly where it was. Then I positioned the axis angle to be somewhat parallel to the direction of motion on the road.

4) I then stuck point mass trackers on Fabian, spectators and motorcycles. These trackers would give me position vs time information of the object as the cross-hairs of the camera sped past them.

I finally had distance vs time plots from objects to plug into MS Excel. Since velocity depends on the observer, and since the observer is in a moving state in a helicopter, any relative motion between the observer and the cyclists is either a surge or a deceleration.

Let's explore the stages of the attack :


A) At what speed was the peloton with favorites moving initially?

Here, helicopter camera was very focused on the action with little shaking. Hence, a spectator appearing and flying out of view may give an indication of the speed of the riders. The position time graph was a straight line. The data was exported in Excel and a "linest" operation on the data yielded a slope, as shown below.

25 mph is not hard to believe.

B) What was the speed of the lead group that surged away?

Here's another spectator! Let's catch him!! So we place a tracker on his bosom.

This is how fast he flies away from the camera. The slope tells me 29mph. Hence, the leaders broke off with an extra 4 mph relative to the peloton.

C) The attack : How fast can Fabian put a 5 second gap on others?

This pic shows a tracker placed on Fabian, and the graph shows his position changing wrt to the origin due to relative motion. This relative motion is the attack!

Fabian was to the right of camera's origin (purple axis) before he attacked. The camera was focused on the lead group and did not follow Cancellara when he attacked due to the "lag" in reaction time from the cameraman. The downward slope on this graph indicates Cancellara moving towards the negative left side of the origin with his surge. In a little over 4 seconds, the brunt of the attack came, when the slope of the graph dips further, indicating acceleration. The area of interest is limited to 12 seconds because the cameraman suddenly finds out what's happening and shifts his focus to Fabian. This is why the red line begins to curve back up again.


So I exported that graph into Excel, inverted the graph so I would get nice positive numbers. Then I cut the graph to the area of interest.

Presto! This shows us that Fabian puts in a 5" gap very quickly. But how quick is "quickly"?


...this gives us an idea of Fabian's relative speed from the camera focus. So what happens in this 5" gap that Fabian puts relative to peloton? In the first 2 seconds, he manages +1.6 mph. In the next half second or so, he increases that to +3.3 mph, which then bumps up to +6.5 mph until at the second before the camera catches up with Fabian, he's riding at an impressive +7.4mph.

Since I wrote before that camera's focus was traveling at 29mph, this means that the Fabian's respective speeds are 30.6 mph (49.2kph), 32.3 mph (52.3kph), 35.5 mph (57kph) and finally 36.4 mph (58.5kph). This corresponds to an acceleration of around 0.7-0.9 m/sec^2. Ordinary cars have an acceleration of 3-4 m/sec^2. Fabian musters close to 25% of a car's acceleration. Vroom!

D) A reality check :

I stuck a tracker on a passing motorcycle as it sped past Cancellara to "get out of the way". Perhaps it was Graham Watson in the back seat as the flashes of a camera went off. Nevertheless, I found it had a relative speed of +25mph from similar analysis. Adding this to Cancellara's speed of 29mph gives a roundabout motorcycle speed of 60mph (96kph). Its believable.

Also, if I were to plug in the speed I obtained and Cancellara's weight and cadence into Analytic Cycling's "Forces on Rider" calculator (with generic parameters), it gives me about 680 Watts of power. Still believable by STATIC riding standards.


But since I said that he's accelerating with 0.9m/s, given a weight total weight of 87kg (80 kg Fabian and 7 kg bike) and a final speed of 16m/s, we should really calculate his power output and crank torque in a dynamic situation. For the crucial 5 seconds of attack time, I calculate all those below.

I assume Fabian was on his 53-11 gear, which I'm sure he could easily pedal.



Onto the propulsive force required.


Work done then becomes :


So what is his power output to accelerate for those first 5 seconds?


Though not very relevant, also notice that this power output equates to a rough 5 sec power to weight ratio of 1200W /80kg = 15 which is nothing out of the ordinary based on a power to weight ratio chart for male cyclists (See Power to Weight Ratio).

Using a stopwatch, I figured Cancellara increased his RPM from his previous 100 to 110 RPM for his attack. The average torque required for this acceleration at the crank is then :


That value is within the realm of competitive cycling. Since I said this is an average, it would be the average of the "sine-curve" of torque on the y-axis and crank angle on the x axis. The crank torque is scaled down at the rear wheel by a factor of the gear ratio, calculated earlier, since it rotates faster.

For readers on both side of the Atlantic Ocean, I put this all together in one table with units :



My sanity check is over. The numbers are believable by DYNAMIC riding standards. Any doubt? Note that some data from the recent Tour of Flanders indicates that he put in 1450 Watts during the attack on the Muur. That number came after a very long day of riding. If he can manage that, he can surely manage 1200 Watts in the initial moments of his breakaway.
This is my two cents.


CONCLUSION

It is the first 5-10 seconds of an attack that is most crucial and most tricky. Attackers must be able to speed off from an already high pace, and the objective is to dig in to hell, gather the firepower and deliver the maximum blow without suicide.

It is the rapid rate at which Fabian Cancellara increases his speed that is mind boggling to see in the video, even though such speeds are pretty normal for him.

Don't get hung up on the numbers presented here, which is all approximate. But we know from historical data that Fabian is someone who can out-sprint the best by simply staying seated on his saddle, even after 230K of racing. The following is one of those spectacular moments of Tour de France history that will not erode away with time. Watch :

ADDITIONAL READING :

Some Probability and Statistics of the Individual Time Trial

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Did Cancellara Use Illegal Motor Power At The Classics?

When I first read the story this morning via a Twitter shrapnel, I dismissed it as an unimpressive attempt at comedy. The story was titled "Former Pro Says 'Mechanized Doping' Is Real."

4 hours later, people were crying "mechanized doping, mechanized doping!" and sharing another story from Belgian source Sporza.

In it, Davide Cassani, an Italian commentator for RAI, implies that pros (like Cancellara) maybe using at races a bike retrofitted with a certain kind of motor. From first impressions, it looks very much like a modified Gruber Assist.

Cassani remarked that if he were given a bike like that at his age of 50, he'd probably win a stage at the Giro d'Italia himself! Among his other claims were that the mechanism has been in existence since 2004 and pros have even used it in the past.

A shady video (below) was then made by "CyclingmanagerItalia", whose real name is Michele Bufalino, showing how Cancellara may have used this device during Paris Roubaix and the Tour of Flanders. Question remains : Who started the rumor about Cancellara using a motor?




The Gruber Assist, the interesting mechanism that maybe at the center of these rumors, happens to be a 900 gram (1.98 lbs) motor-control unit powered by a 1000 gram Li-Mn battery that is placed in a saddle bag from where cables and electronics run. The motor is switched on and off or placed into pedaling frequency recording mode by a button on the handlebar end.

The motor itself is designed to fit inside a 31.8 mm diameter seat tube, thus hidden from view. The drive mechanism appears to be a 90 degree bevel gear arrangement as shown in the pic below. The manufacturer claims that upto 200W of extra propelling power is delivered to the rear wheel at a rated cadence of 60 RPM, with a running time range of 45min-1.5 hours.


A peek at their website yields some specs for the battery. If human pedaling contribution was ignored, the battery has 4.5 A-hours of capacity at 6 A current and 30V rating. What that probably means is that a 6A current will discharge the 4.5 Ah capacity battery in 45 minutes. If the manufacturer's claims are true, the exaggerated 200 Watts could be from :

30V x 4.5 A-hours = 135 Watt-hours or 135 watts for an hour.

Of course, batteries work like human power. The faster you discharge energy from the battery, the less it can totally supply. This is called Puekert's effect. So the numbers above can drastically change with higher energy demands.

So suppose these video allegations from Cassani are indeed true, and suppose the motor was indeed suitable for the famed cobbles of Roubaix and the Kepelmuur (9.3% average, 19% max). What then?

On the hill section where Cancellara attacked dominantly, the motor must have been expected to supply an extra 200+ watts of power for him to power away from Boonen. On the cobbled sections to Roubaix, it must have been expected to provide upto 250 Watts of extra power to counteract wind resistance while accelerating away from the bunch. I'm not sure of the wind conditions, but with headwinds, add another 200 Watts give or take to that figure, for every 5 mph increase in wind speed.

All in all, with the weight requirements that pro cycling demands, the energy demands imposed on the battery are substantial. Not only is the discharge rate very high, such as that asked for in an attack during the race, but the gravimetric energy density (Wh/kg) of the battery must also be high. If the battery weighs 1 kg as claimed, you're looking at a desired supply of upto 200 Wh/kg and over. My first guess tells me that a Li-Mn battery could not meet these racing specific demands. But I maybe wrong given the rate at which battery technology is getting better. See the graph below :



To the lame man, more important questions, however, are the following :

1) How was Cancellara was able to get away from not being noticed in spite of sound from the motor? Observe in the video below the amount of noise this thing makes :



2) Where did he place the 1 kg battery, if he didn't have a saddle bag?
3) The seat tube must be internally drilled out with a reamer for the drive unit to be correctly placed. The drive unit would have to be made to work with the SRAM bottom bracket, as the off the shelf unit only works with Shimano Hollowtech II. After that, all parts would then have to be hidden from view, given the number of components in the assembly as shown.


Surely, if this event took place, someone knowledgeable in how to do all this would have assisted at the Saxo Bank camp.

This may either be a good one for the spoof books, or something just so good that it doesn't appear true.

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