NHL stock watch - October edition

It’s the end of October, which means two things for NHL fans: Your Twitter feed is being overtaken by awkward photos of your favorite players in horrible Halloween costumes, and it’s time to take stock of the first month of regular-season action.

We’ve already covered most of the big trends — Canadiens good! Blue Jackets bad! Ducks maybe even worse! — so we won’t rehash those here. Instead, let’s drill down a bit to some of the league’s other moving parts. Here are some of the first month’s more interesting stories and the direction they’re headed.

Stock Rising: Max Pacioretty

It feels like it shouldn’t be possible for a player in the ravenous Montreal market to be underrated, and that’s especially true when that player is the captain. But I think there’s a good case to be made that Pacioretty has spent most of his career in that category. He probably won’t be there much longer.

Pacioretty sits tied for sixth in the NHL in scoring with 11 points through Montreal’s first 10 games. He’s unlikely to keep up that pace; he’s never topped 70 points or been a point-per-game scorer in his career. But he has been one of the league’s most consistent wingers, good for 30-plus goals and 60-plus points year after year. Since his breakout year in 2011, Pacioretty has more goals than any pure winger other than Alex Ovechkin — more than Patrick Kane, or Corey Perry, or Phil Kessel.

And yet you rarely hear him mentioned with those sorts of guys, despite playing in arguably the most rabid media market in the league. If anything, he’s often been underappreciated. Maybe that’s because the low-key Pacioretty can’t compete with the star power of a Carey Price or P.K. Subban. Maybe it’s a style thing; Pacioretty is more likely to score based on opportunism and his quick release than on highlight-friendly end-to-end rushes. Or maybe a city that’s used to cheering on legends like Rocket Richard and Guy Lafleur has trouble getting excited for a player who’s merely very good.

But in any case, Pacioretty deserves more credit than he gets. Of course, once he’s led the 81-1-0 Habs to a Stanley Cup, that should change.

Stock Falling: Goalies We Thought Were Good

Among goaltenders with at least five starts heading into last night’s action, just four had posted save percentages under .875. One of those is Jonas Hiller. The other three were expected to be good.

Nobody has had a strong start in Columbus, but no one there has been worse than Sergei Bobrovsky. He ranks last in save percentage and goals-against average and has already been quoted as having “zero confidence.” That’s not what you want to hear from a goaltender, especially one who’s just three years removed from a Vezina Trophy. His numbers have been trending in the wrong direction since then, but they were still solid enough last season that you’d assume this is just an early-season blip. The Blue Jackets better hope so; Bobrovsky is signed through 2019 on a deal that carries the second-biggest cap hit of any goaltender.

In Colorado, Semyon Varlamov has been nipping at Bobrovsky’s heels at the bottom of the stats page. Yet he’s just two years removed from finishing a close second in the 2014 Vezina race. And the guy who beat him out for that award, Boston’s Tuukka Rask, has been almost as bad. Rask posted a shutout Tuesday, and it still left him with the league’s third-worst goals-against average.

History tells us that all three guys will be fine — always rely more on the big sample size of a career’s worth of work than on a few shaky weeks, especially with goalies. But the position is a funny one, and a rough enough start really can torpedo a season if it burrows far enough into a guy’s head. Goaltending is voodoo, and right now the Blue Jackets, Avalanche, and Bruins are hoping it won’t end up being the evil kind.

Stock Rising: Jamie Benn

Benn was one of the league’s best stories last season, winning the Art Ross as the league’s top scorer with a four-point game on the season’s final night, including the clinching point with just 10 seconds left.

It was a cool moment, one that capped off a breakout season for the 26-year-old winger. But it wasn’t one that anyone expected him to have much chance of repeating. After all, his 87 points last season was the lowest total to lead the league in over 50 years, helped by some second-half injuries to Sidney Crosby. Benn had earned the title, but his reign was assumed to be a Jarome Iginla–style one-and-out, a case of a player having the good timing to enjoy a career year in a season when everyone else went cold.

But as the season’s first month draws to a close, there’s a familiar name right back on top of the league scoring race. After Tuesday’s three-point performance, Benn has 15 points through nine games, good for the league lead. He remains a key part of the high-flying Stars offense, one that’s made Dallas the most entertaining team in the league.

If he stays healthy, there’s no reason to think he can’t challenge for yet another Art Ross. And this time, nobody will be able to call it a fluke.

Stock Falling: The Islanders’ New Home

The Islanders finally moved out of Nassau Coliseum, generally considered the worst arena in the NHL, at the end of last season. Their new home is the Barclays Center in Brooklyn. It’s fair to say reviews have been mixed.

The Barclays Center isn’t anyone’s idea of a classic hockey arena; in fact, it’s barely a hockey arena at all, depending on where you get stuck sitting. It also seats just 15,700 for hockey, the second-lowest capacity in the league. And so far, the Islanders are having trouble filling even that many seats, as many of their fans don’t seem to like the new building. Plus there’s that weird SUV parked in the corner that makes you think you accidentally tuned into a Spengler Cup game.

The good news is this doesn’t seem to be affecting the Islanders, who are icing one of the best teams in the league. And it’s not like the franchise had a ton of options. The Islanders desperately needed to get out of the Coliseum before it completely fell apart, and when they couldn’t make a deal to stay in Uniondale, they took what was available. The Barclays Center may be far from ideal, but it was almost certainly the best option.

As with most NHL problems, winning will fix some of this. If the Islanders keep playing like they have been, attendance should get a boost, and maybe some of those fans will realize they don’t mind the new rink so much after all. The flip side is that the seats stay empty and an Islanders team that could be a Cup contender finds itself heading down the stretch without any discernible home-ice advantage. We’ll see how it works out, but the early returns aren’t encouraging.

>> Read the full post on Grantland

At the quarter-pole*, some early NHL awards

We’ve reached the quarter pole in the NHL season, which means two things: It’s too early to start drawing conclusions and throwing around awards, and we’re going to go ahead and do those things anyway. So dig your tuxes and gowns out of the closet, because we’ve got a dozen early-season awards to hand out.

Most Valuable Player: Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh Penguins

Ho-hum. Crosby won the award last year, he was the overwhelming favorite to win it this year, and so far that looks like it’s exactly what he’s going to do. He’s not running away with the scoring title, which is a mild surprise. But all the guys keeping pace with him come from struggling teams, and the Hart Trophy basically always goes to someone from a Cup contender. So it’s Crosby by default, which is basically too boring to spend any more time on.

Most Valuable Player Who Isn’t Sidney Crosby: Jakub Voracek, Philadelphia Flyers

That’s better! And we’ve got several candidates to consider, like Voracek, who’s tied with Crosby for the lead in points, and Tyler Seguin, who leads in goals scored. Steven Stamkos has been fantastic, Vladimir Tarasenko has owned the highlight reels, and Rick Nash’s hot start left him carrying basically the entire Rangers offense.

And that’s just the forwards, which is … well, which is probably all we need to talk about, since defensemen and goalies rarely win the Hart.¹ Besides, we’ll get to those guys in a minute.

I’m going to go with Voracek, who’s recorded a point on over half of the Flyers goals this year, and is basically single-handedly keeping them in the playoff picture. Will it last? No, not at his current pace, but that shouldn’t matter. We’re trying to recognize the first quarter of the season here, not predict the rest of it, so Voracek has earned the right to pick up Crosby’s scraps.

Least Valuable Player: The Backup Goalie, New Jersey Devils

Do you know his name? I didn’t know his name, and apparently neither did Devils coach Peter DeBoer until the weekend, when he finally gave him his first start of the season in the team’s 21st game. Before that, Cory Schneider had gotten the nod each and every time, becoming only the third goalie in the salary-cap era to make that many starts in a row to begin a season. That streak ended on Saturday, when DeBoer remembered that he had a second goaltender on the roster.

The guy’s name is Scott Clemmensen, by the way. That probably sounds familiar, since the journeyman has been backing up around the NHL since 2001, including three separate stints in New Jersey. He got his first start of the season against the Flames in Calgary. He lost. LVP! LVP!

>> Read the full post on Grantland

(* I know, I know.)

Coaches and GMs on the hot seat

The exact moment Hartley realized that the little
photo of a tank Brian Burke left on his desk
wasn't meant as a reminder to keep on rolling.

We’re now into month two of the NHL season, and patience is running out in various cities around the league. With several teams struggling and the playoff races already tightening, some franchises will be looking to make major changes very soon.

We’ve already had one coach fired, and there’s little doubt that more will be on the way – probably joined by a GM or two. But who?

Based on my conversation with sources around the league, here are some of the coaches and GMs who find themselves on the hot seat as we head into the season’s second month.

Ron Rolston, Buffalo Sabres – Is rumored to have angered Buffalo management through his failure to do things “The Sabres Way”, such as that time a small child asked him for an autograph and he politely declined instead of repeatedly hitting him in the head.

Dallas Eakins, Edmonton Oilers – Is gradually running out of ways to change the subject every time Kevin Lowe corners him in his office and starts asking him to remind him which Cup-winning Oilers team they were teammates on.

Paul MacLean, Ottawa Senators – Was briefly worried when he recently walked into his office and found a pink slip on his desk, only to realize it was just a $5 bill from the stack of Monopoly money Eugene Melnyk now uses to pay everyone.

George McPhee, Washington Capitals – Even though it’s worked for years, can’t help but worry that owner Ted Leonsis will eventually figure out that there really isn’t an NHL bylaw that says that all GMs must actually have the initials “GM”.

Greg Sherman, Colorado Avalanche – Was absolutely shocked to see his name on this list, since even he had forgotten that he’s still technically the GM in Colorado.

Read the rest of this post...

A mid-season evaluation of the Canadian teams

How southern US teams make payroll

Now that the new year has arrived and the season's 40-game mark is quickly approaching, it's a good time for an in-depth examination of teams' chances of success in the second half.

For some teams, the future is bright. For others, it seems bleak. So let's take an honest look at each of Canada's six teams, and how they stack up for the rest of the 2010-11 season and beyond.

Calgary Flames
The good news: Experts say the worst part of a losing season is the devastating effect is can have on the development of young players, which is great news for the Flames since they don't have any.
The bad news: Are currently on pace for an 82-point season, which would see them miss the playoffs in the Western Conference by over 50 points.
Worth mentioning: Coach Brent Sutter can't help but notice that team mascot Harvey The Hound now stands directly behind the bench at all times, takes detailed notes, and looks a lot like Bob Hartley wearing cheap novelty wolf ears.
The road ahead: New general manager Jay Feaster has been given a mandate to deal anyone the roster, which is bad news for the two or three guys who have any trade value.

Vancouver Canucks
The good news: Appear to have been inspired by the Markus Naslund retirement ceremony, which has been continuing in the background during all home games since early December.
The bad news: Daniel and Henrik Sedin continue to frustrate observers by refusing to reveal which one is the evil one.
Worth mentioning: Recently set a new franchise record by going three months without completely redesigning their jerseys.
The road ahead: May avoid the Blackhawks in the playoffs this year, which will be great news unless they happen to run into some other team that can exploit bad goaltending.

Montreal Canadiens
The good news: Carey Price has established himself as one of the best goaltenders in the league, so they should be able to get a couple of average prospects for him in the offseason.
The bad news: Sources say that recently acquired defenceman James Wisniewski has made the team's traditional off day games of charades increasingly awkward.
Worth mentioning: Are still trying to figure out how they can raise somebody's number to the rafters during the Heritage Classic game.
The road ahead: The trade deadline acquisition of Alexei Kovalev for a fifth round pick will probably seem like a good idea until they realize he now plays all his shifts wearing skate guards.

Toronto Maple Leafs
The good news: Looked absolutely dominant against the Ottawa Senators on Saturday night.
The bad news: Have had substantially less success against teams that are still trying.
Worth mentioning: The traditional modest late season win streak that somehow convinces management that the team is on the verge of long-term success is currently scheduled for late March.
The road ahead: Brian Burke continues to insist that he won't ask Tomas Kaberle to waive his no-trade clause, although the baseball bat he's quietly tapping in the palm of his hand hasn't made any similar promises.

Ottawa Senators
The good news: Have avoided becoming national laughingstock, as nobody outside Ottawa is aware the team still exists.
The bad news: Owner Eugene Melnyk has gone on record saying the team was "going all the way this year", rudely spoiling the ending for the rest of us who wanted to be surprised.
Worth mentioning: Dynamic young defenceman Erik Karlsson leads the league in assists, or would, if not for that pesky "it only counts when it's to your own team" technicality.
The road ahead: Face a long, difficult, and frustrating road, and that's just to get back to downtown Ottawa after home games.

Edmonton Oilers
The good news: Have been decent against non-playoff teams, which bodes really well for future intrasquad games.
The bad news: Rookie Linus Omark has been sent back to the minors to work on his latest shootout move in hopes that he can more consistently land that quad toe loop.
Worth mentioning: Shawn Horcoff's six-year contract really isn't as horrendous as it seems, assuming the Mayans are right about this whole 2012 thing.
The road ahead: Look like they'll be absolutely stacked for the future thanks to Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, Magnus Paajarvi, and a top three pick in every draft for the next decade or so.