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21 September 2018

 

High Probability Trading Strategy — A Complete Guide

Credit: Rayner Teo


Do you want to find high probability trading setups?

I’m sure you do, right? (Or you won’t be reading this right now)

But the thing is…

…you’re not sure how.

Instead of looking at price, you’re looking at indicators (without understanding the purpose of it).

Instead of following trends, you’re trying to predict market reversals.

Instead of proper risk management, you put on a huge bet because this trade “feels good”.

Now…

If you’re doing any of the above, then it will be difficult to identify high probability trading setups.

But don’t worry.

I’ve got good news for you.

Because in this post, I’ll teach you step-by-step on how to find high probability trading setups.

Here’s what you’ll learn:

Why trading with the trend increase your returns and reduce your risk
How to identify the best areas to trade on your chart
How to trade pullback, breakouts, and the failure test pattern
How to set a proper trading stop loss so you don’t get stopped out “too early”
A high probability trading strategy that lets you profit in bull & bear markets
Are you ready?

Then let’s begin…

Secret Bonus:

Get my free training video where you’ll learn how to identify high probability trading setups (include trading techniques that you can use to profit in the markets immediately)
The trend gives you the biggest bang for your buck
The definition of the trend is this…

Uptrend – consists of higher highs and lows

Downtrend – consists of lower highs and lows

If you want to know where’s the path of least resistance, look left (and follow the trend).

When the price is in an uptrend, you should stay long. When the price is in a downtrend, you should stay short.

By trading with the trend, you can see that the impulse move (green) goes much more in your favor, compared to the corrective move (red).

Here are a couple of examples…

most bang for buck 2most bang

Now you’re probably wondering:

Rayner, identifying a trend looks easy. But how do I enter an existing trend?

And this is what we’re covering next…

Trade in the direction of the general market. If it’s rising you should be long, if it’s falling you should be short. – Jesse Livermore

How to identify areas of value on your chart
You’d probably heard of the saying, “buy low sell high”.

But the question nobody asks is…

…what’s low and what’s high, right?

This is where Support & Resistance comes into the picture.

Support & Resistance
And this is the definition of it:

Support – an area with potential buying pressure to push price higher (area of value in an uptrend)

Resistance – an area with potential selling pressure to push price lower (area of value in a downtrend)

Here’s what I mean…

support in uptrendresistance in downtrend

Dynamic Support & Resistance
What you’ve seen earlier is what I call, classical Support & Resistance (horizontal lines)

Alternatively, it can come in the form of moving average. This is known as dynamic Support & Resistance (and I use the 20 & 50 EMA).

This is what I mean…

dynamic support2dynamic resistance2

Not only does support & resistance allows you to trade from an area of value, it improves your risk to reward and winning rate as well.

Watch this training video below and learn how:




Now, another “trick” you can use is to use overbought/oversold indicators.

High probability trading — using Stochastic to identify areas of value
A big mistake most traders make is, going short just because the price is overbought, or oversold.

Because in a strong trending market, the market can be overbought/oversold for a sustained period of time (and if you’re trading without stops, you risk losing your entire account).

Here’s what I mean:

oversold for long periodoverbought for long period

Now you’re wondering:

How do I use Stochastic to identify areas of value?

Here’s the secret…

Are you ready?

In an uptrend, you only look for longs, when the price is oversold.

In a downtrend, you only look for shorts, when the price is overbought.

Here’re some examples:

oversold in uptrendoverbought in downtrend

If you follow this simple rule, you can “predict” when a pullback will usually end.

So, you’ve learned how to identify areas of value on your chart.

Now…

…you’ll learn how to better time your entries.

How to enter your trades
There’re 3 ways you can enter a trade:

Pullback
Breakout
Failure test
Pullback
A pullback is when price temporarily moves against the underlying trend.

In an uptrend, a pullback would be a move a lower.

Here’s an example:

pullbacks in uptrend

And…

In a downtrend, a pullback would be a move higher.

An example:

pullbacks in downtrend

According to the work’s of Adam Grimes, trading pullbacks has a statistical edge in the markets as proven here.

You may wonder:

What are the pros and cons of trading pullbacks?

Advantages of trading pullbacks:

You get a good trade location as you’re buying into an area of value. This gives you a better risk to reward profile.
Disadvantages of trading pullbacks:

You may potentially miss a move if the price doesn’t come into your identified area.
You’ll be trading against the underlying momentum.
Breakout
A breakout is when price moves outside of a defined boundary.

The boundary can be defined using classical support & resistance.

Breakout to the upside:

upside breakout

Breakout to the downside:

downside breakout

You’re wondering:

What are the pros and cons of trading breakouts?

Advantages of trading breakouts:

You will always capture the move.
You are trading with the underlying momentum.
Disadvantages of trading breakouts:

You get a poor trade location as you’re paying a premium.
You may encounter a lot of false breakouts.
For a more in-depth explanation, go read The Definitive Guide to Trading Pullbacks and Breakouts.

Failure test
This technique possibly originated from Victor Sperandeo, and the works of Adam Grimes shows that it has a statistical edge in the markets.

It works like this…

You’re entering your trade when the price does a false breakout of Support/Resistance. Thus taking advantage of traders who are trapped from trading the breakout.

This entry can be applied in a trending or range market.

Here’re a few examples:

failure test2failure test3failure test1

For further explanation, watch this training video below:




Now, the next thing you’re going to learn is…

How to set your stop loss
Place your stops at a point that, if reached, will reasonably indicate that the trade is wrong, not at a point determined by the maximum dollar amount you are willing to lose. – Bruce Kovner

I’m going to share with you 3 ways to do it:

Volatility stop
Time stop
Structure stop
Volatility stop
A volatility stop takes into account the volatility of the market.

An indicator that measure volatility is the Average True Range (ATR), which can help set your stop loss.

You need to identify the current ATR value and multiply it by a factor of your choice. 2ATR, 3ATR, 4ATR etc.

atr

In the example above, the ATR is 71 pips.

So if you were to place a stop loss of 2ATR, take 2*71 = 142 pips

Your stop loss is 142 pips from your entry.

Pros:

Your stop loss is based on the volatility of the market
An objective way to define how much “buffer” you need from your entry
Cons:

It’s a lagging indicator because it is based on past prices
Time stop
A time stop determines when you exit your trades based on time.

Instead of exiting your trades based on price, you exit your trades after X amount of time has passed.

You need to define how much time you will allow before exiting it.

An example:

You took a short trade at resistance area. But after 5 days it’s not going anywhere, so you exit your trade.

time3

Pros:

You reduce losses
If you have trading records, you can identify optimal amount of time to give your trades
Cons:

You may exit prematurely only to see price move in your favor
Structure stop
A structure stop takes into account the structure of the market and set your stop loss accordingly.

An example…

Support is an area where price may potentially trade higher from. In other words, it’s a “barrier” that prevents further price decline.

Thus, it makes sense to have your stop loss below Support. Vice versa for Resistance.

Here’s what I mean:

sl below supportsl above resistance

You want to place your stop loss where there is a structure in the market that can act as a “barrier” for you.

Below is a training video that explains this concept in more detail…




Pros:

You know exactly when you’re wrong because market structure has broken
You’re using “barriers” in the market to prevent price from hitting your stops
Cons:

You need wider stop loss if the structure of the market is large (this results in smaller position size to keep your risk constant)
If you want to learn more, go read 13 ways to set your stop loss to reduce risk and maximise profits.

Now, let’s move on…

What is confluence and how it impacts your trading
Here’s the thing:

You’re not going to enter a long trade just because Stochastic is oversold, or the market is in an uptrend.

You’d need additional “supporting evidence” to give you the signal, to enter the trade. And this “supporting evidence” is known as, confluence.

Confluence is when two or more factors give the same trading signal. E.g. The market is in an uptrend, and price retraces to an area of support.

Here’re two guidelines for you:

1. Not more than four confluence factors

The more confluence you have, the higher the probability of your trade working out. But…

In the real world, your trading strategy should have anywhere between 2 – 4 confluence factors.

Anything more, chances are you’re going to get very little trading setups. And it’ll take you forever before your edge can play out.

You can take mediocre trading setups, and still make money in the long run.

2. Do not have more than one confluence factor in the same category

If you’re going to use indicators (oscillators) to identify overbought/oversold areas, then use that only.

Don’t add Stochastic, RSI and CCI because it’ll leave you with analysis paralysis. Similarly…

…adding simple, exponential and weighted moving average on your charts, doesn’t make any sense.

If you’re still reading at the point, you’re in for a treat. Because here comes the exciting part…

A high probability trading strategy that lets you profit in bull & bear markets
And here’s my secret (which is what you’ve just learned)…

Trade with the trend
Trade at areas of value
Find an entry
Set my stop loss
Plan my exit
If a trade meets these 5 criteria, then its a good trade to me.

Now, let’s learn a new trading strategy, that gives you high probability trading setups.

Are you ready?

Here it goes…
If 200ma is pointing higher and the price is above it, then it’s an uptrend (trading with the trend).

If it’s an uptrend, then wait for the price to pullback to an area of support (trading at an area of value).

If price pullback to an area of support, then wait for failure test entry (my entry trigger).

If there’s failure test entry, then go long on next candle’s open (my entry trigger).

If a trade is entered, then place a stop loss below the low of the candle, and take profit at nearest swing high (my exit and profit target).

Vice versa for a downtrend

**Disclaimer: I will not be responsible for any profit or loss resulting from using this trading strategy. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. Please do your own due diligence before risking your hard earned money.

Here’re a few trading examples:

high probability trading setup3high probability trading setup2high probability trading setup1

Secret Bonus:

Get my free training video where you’ll learn how to identify high probability trading setups (include trading techniques that you can use to profit in the markets immediately)
Here’s the thing:

You may not be comfortable using my trading strategy because it may not suit you.

So, what you need to do is, “tweak” it into something that fits you. And this is what we’ll cover next…

I don’t think traders can follow rules for very long unless they reflect their own trading style. – Ed Seykota

How to develop a high probability trading strategy (a template you can use)
You can “mix and match” different trading techniques I’ve shared with you earlier.

But ultimately, your trading strategy needs to answer these 7 questions:

1. How are you going to define a trend?

You can consider moving average, trendline, structure etc.

2. How are you going to define an area of value?

You can consider dynamic Support & Resistance, weekly highs/lows, Stochastic etc.

3. How are you going to enter your trade?

You can consider pullbacks, breakouts, failure test, moving average crossover etc.

4. How are you going to exit your trade?

There’re many ways to exit a trade. Go read 13 Ways to Set Your Stop Loss to Reduce Risk and Maximise Profits to learn more.

5. How much are you going to risk on each trade?

I would suggest risking no more than 1% of your account on each trade, to avoid the risk of ruin.

6. How are you going to manage your trade?

Will you scale out or scale in your trades? If so, how much?

7. Which markets will you be trading?

Are you focusing on one market or many markets?

If you trade a variety of markets, you want to be aware of the correlation between markets.

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# posted by TopTrader @ Friday, September 21, 2018 0 comments

29 April 2018

 

从1亿到1万：中国式投资陷阱


来源: 如是金融研究院 于 2018-04-27 21:26:30 [档案] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 本文已被阅读： 5599 次 (31251 bytes)
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投资最难的技术不是赚取收益，而是控制风险。如果做不好风险管理，积累再多的财富都可能化为乌有，从1万到1亿可能需要一辈子，但从1亿到1万有时却只需要一瞬间。

对于机构投资者来说，经过长期的实践检验，形成了投资范围和仓位的严格限定，比如，很多银行在投资债券的时候，只能投AA级以上债券；保险投资单一股票不能超过总资产的5%；又比如公募基金投资同一公司发行的证券合计不得超过产品净资产的10%等。这些风控措施让机构一般不至于血本无归。

但对于个人投资者来说，投资知识不完善，缺少投资纪律，很容易把鸡蛋压在一个篮子里，最后竹篮打水一场空。尤其是这几年，监管相对宽松，金融创新产品不断涌现，而且形式越来越复杂，别说一般个人投资者看不明白，很多专业机构投资者都是雾里看花。

有几个案例对我触动特别大。第一个是钱宝网的受害者，南京某高校的一位院长，自己的儿子因为购买钱宝产品欠下上千万债务，最后父子俩不堪重压，先后自杀。第二个是某位非常知名的明星，和我还有一点交集，对金融不太懂，就听别人的推荐买了几百万P2P，结果后来那个平台跑路了。第三个是我身边的一位非常成功的企业家，2016年的一天突然告诉我，五千万投资了一个新三板产品收不回来了，那个产品的名字我从未听闻，事后证明就是诈骗。

这几件事让我很震惊，如果连大学教授、明星、企业家都对风险没有意识，现实中得有多少的无辜老百姓因为踩雷而倾家荡产？我们整个社会真的需要上一节投资风险的基础课。今天我们这篇报告为大家梳理了主要的八种投资陷阱，然后分析了他们的一些共性，希望给大家一些帮助。


从1亿到1万：中国式投资陷阱全梳理


从1亿到1万：中国式投资陷阱全梳理


01.P2P非法集资

P2P非法集资，即在互联网平台上，利用高收益为诱饵，虚构项目信息，设立资金池，借新还旧，找权威人士站台背书，空手套白狼。

P2P作为一项新兴产物，自出现诞生以来跑路事件就比比皆是，e租宝、鑫利源、校园贷、月光宝盒等曾经炒得火热的机构生存一两年就纷纷跑路停业。根据网贷之家的数据统计，目前跑路及存在问题的P2P平台多达4000多家，仅2016年一年出现问题的平台就多达1731家，其数量之多令人不寒而栗。


从1亿到1万：中国式投资陷阱全梳理


经过总结，我们发现P2P平台主要通过三种方式来进行非法集资：一是网络借贷平台发布虚假的高利借款标的，甚至发假标自融，并采用借新贷还旧债的庞氏骗局模式，短期内募集大量资金满足自身资金需求；二是网络借贷平台通过先归集资金、再寻找借款对象的方式，使放贷人资金进入平台的中间账户，并由平台实际控制和支配；三是黑客入侵P2P平台，利用网站漏洞诈骗敛财。其中，第一种方式最为常见，涉案规模巨大的e租宝、中宝投资等案件均在此列。


从1亿到1万：中国式投资陷阱全梳理


e租宝号称由集团下属的融资租赁公司与项目公司签订协议，然后在e租宝平台上以债权转让的形式发标融资，融到资金后，项目公司向租赁公司支付租金，租赁公司则向投资人支付收益和本金。但其打着“网络金融”的旗号上线运营，实际却以高额利息为诱饵，虚构融资租赁项目，持续采用借新还旧、自我担保等方式大量非法吸收公众资金，累计交易发生额达700多亿元，实际吸收资金500多亿元，涉及投资人约90万名遍布全国31个省市区。根据e租宝总裁张敏在被关押期间交代，“e租宝就是一个彻头彻尾的庞氏骗局”，利用假项目、假三方、假担保三步障眼法来制造骗局，超过95%的项目都是虚假的。2018年2月7日，北京市第一中级人民法院已对被告单位安徽钰诚控股集团、钰诚国际控股集团有限公司、被告人丁宁、丁甸、张敏等26人犯集资诈骗罪、非法吸收公众存款罪、走私贵重金属罪、偷越国境罪、非法持有枪支罪一案立案执行。

中宝投资同样以发布虚假项目借新还旧为套路。2014年3·15前一天下午，上线三年有余的老牌平台中宝投资官方网站突然出现一则公司因涉嫌经济犯罪被衢州市公安局立案调查的公告。顿时，P2P行业一片哗然，该事件被喻为“2014网贷行业头号冲击波”。自2011年5月以来，中宝投资法人周辉陆续借用公司网站以虚构的34个借款人和用自己身份信息注册的2个会员名虚构事实，大量发布“宝石标”、“抵押标”等虚假标的向投资人融资，并宣称年化收益率约20%，还有额外奖励的高额回报等，骗取投资人的资金。周辉先后从全国多个省份1586名不特定对象集资共计10亿余元，其中尚有1136名投资人共计3.57亿余元集资款未归还。

02交易所非法集资

不同于e租宝空手套白狼，交易所非法集资往往有一定的实物和商品，但是会通过控制操作平台价格，将某些业务包装成理财产品向社会公众出售来非法吸纳资金，并承诺较高的固定年化收益率。

事实上，在中国境内，只有上海证券交易所、深圳证券交易所、全国中小企业股份转让系统、大连期货交易所、郑州期货交易所、上海期货交易所、中国金融期货交易所、上海黄金交易所这八家交易所是国务院和证监会批准成立的正规交易所，其他则均为地方政府或者商务部此前批准的交易所。而现在，一些野鸡交易所却像雨后春笋一样冒出来纷纷涌现，宣称能短期获得超高回报，实则贪婪吞噬着投资人的财富。


从1亿到1万：中国式投资陷阱全梳理


在交易所非法集资案件中，涉案规模和影响最大的是昆明泛亚有色金属交易所。昆明泛亚通过金属现货投资和贸易平台，自买自卖，操控平台价格，维持泛亚的价格比现货市场价高25%—30%，每年上涨约20%，制造交易火爆的假象，然后借此包装所谓“日金宝”等诱人的高收益产品。但实际上每年涨价20%只是为了让泛亚的价格永远高于现货市场价格，因此也永远不会有真正的买方，并没有带来实际增量资金；而交货商也因此不需补交保证金，投资者年化13.5%的日金宝理财收益，都是自己的本金或者新增投资者的本金。当新增资金放缓或者停止进入时，整个体系就会崩盘，投资者基本血本无归。泛亚模式就是利用新投资人的钱来向老投资者支付委托日金费和短期回报，制造赚钱的假象进而骗取更多的投资。2015年12月，昆明泛亚兑付危机爆发，涉及28个省份的22万人，非法集资金额总计超过430亿元，上千名泛亚投资者聚集在证监会门口集会抗议。


从1亿到1万：中国式投资陷阱全梳理


03实体项目非法集资

实体项目非法集资与前两种非法集资套路相似，只是投资标的不同。实体项目非法集资表面假借实体项目进行融资，但实体项目的资质往往是包装出来的，金玉其外败絮其中。实体项目非法集资具有案件多发、涉案规模大、涉及投资人数多的特点，曾经骇人听闻的蚁力神案、吴英案、小姑娘案、鄂尔多斯非法集资案等均在此列。

从1亿到1万：中国式投资陷阱全梳理

从1亿到1万：中国式投资陷阱全梳理


涉及金额200亿元，受害投资者30万人，作为东北双蚂蚁之一，蚁力神案可以说是中国最出名也是吸金最大的非法集资案之一。蚁力神是蚁力神天玺集团所推出的主要商品，宣传其具有迅速补肾的功能，其原料为可药食两用的珍贵蚁种拟黑多刺蚁。这种蚂蚁在其集团下属公司采取“委托养殖”的模式：缴纳蚁种最低保证金一万元人民币，就可以领取2大1小三箱蚂蚁在家养殖，14个半月后，公司约定对蚂蚁进行回收，退还全部保证金并支付3250元劳务费，投资报酬率高达32.5%，看似稳赚不赔且收益可观。但在实际操作过程中，该公司上门收购蚂蚁时既不分品质也不过秤，而是鼓动养殖户继续投资养殖，以获取更多保证金，从而以拆东墙补西墙的方式支付先前加盟养户的返利。然而，大部分蚂蚁并没有实际的功效，一旦后加盟养户的资金不足以支付返利，就会发生资金断裂。2007年10月，蚁力神资金链断裂导致企业破产，蚂蚁无人回收，投资者连保证金都难以追回，更别谈劳务费了。

实体项目非法集资不仅有可能酿成家破人亡、人财两空的悲剧，更有可能造成一个城市的衰败。曾经的鄂尔多斯，自称中国迪拜，特产是“羊煤土气”，给人的印象是高楼林立、豪车遍地，而现在的特色却是高利贷无法收回、烂尾楼遍地的鬼城。白昊与他的昊达投资，就是利用“羊煤土气”来编织“快速致富梦”，诱使人们自动钻进圈套，诈骗金额高达52亿元。昊达投资的大部分项目来自于乌金煤业。乌金煤业成立之初红极一时，公司办公室的墙上挂满了各级政府签发的有关批文和证照，公司的网页、宣传画册也是图文并茂，吸引了广大投资人，放贷给昊达甚至还要托人找关系，月息3%的高利更是一个巨大的诱惑。自2008年3月成立至2011年8月的三年多时间里，投资人迅速蔓延到鄂尔多斯和陕西榆林两市的大部分旗县及周边地区，甚至波及到宁夏、河北等地，各阶层人士蜂踊地为昊达投资出借资金。但到了2011年10月，公司以资金断链为由停止了结息返本，顿时引起众多投资者的高度恐慌。上千人集聚在昊达门前讨债，后来也有好多人几次去鄂尔多斯市政府上访，但乌金煤业和市政府都没有实质性的答复和解决方案。

04外汇交易诈骗

外汇市场作为一个国际性的资本投机市场，它的历史要比股票、黄金、期货、货币市场短得多，然而它却以惊人的速度发展，规模已远超股票、期货等其它金融产品市场，摇身一变成为全球最大的市场，也给诈骗分子的介入带来了可乘之机。

中国法律规定大陆不得设立公司组织公民炒汇，国内能够炒外汇的正规渠道只有银行。但不少国内外汇交易平台却打着国外监管的旗号行骗，常见的手法是通过做市商机制进行后台操控：在数据上造假，有的根本没有参与外汇交易，但在用户初入市场之时给予盈利的甜头；在交易时滑点，使下单的点位和最后成交的点位存有差距；甚至直接干扰交易，影响交易正常进行。


从1亿到1万：中国式投资陷阱全梳理


卷款规模高达300亿元的IGOFX外汇平台骗局让投资者体会了一把给“黄毛丫头”交智商税的悲剧。2017年6月，1991年出生的IGOFX外汇平台总代理张雪娇卷款跑路，近40万名投资者约300亿“被骗”。IGOFX向用户提供了一个专供该公司使用的MT4交易平台，用户在这一平台上开户后可以看到自己的账户情况。用户在交易时，可以在来自世界各地的38位操盘手中选择自己心仪的对象托付资产，坐收渔翁之利，无需再做任何操作。然而投资者的资金进入该平台后实际上并没有真正参与外汇交易，平台通过伪造交易数据，让投资者获得“盈利”，实际上是新开户投资者的资金，IGOFX实际上也并不是外汇，而是一个资金盘，借用外汇跟单的噱头集资。为了吸引更多的客户，IGOFX还通过老用户邀请新用户可获得返点、外汇竞赛抽奖等活动使得平台迅速扩张壮大，而返利和抽奖则恰恰是金融传销最常采用的发展下线方式。


从1亿到1万：中国式投资陷阱全梳理


如果说一些野鸡外汇交易平台发生诈骗案在人们意料之中，香港恒丰环球集团则借助“高大上的集团背景”和“专业操作团队”诈骗了不少从事金融相关行业、拥有黄金外汇实战经验的专业人士。香港恒丰环球集团是一家打着被摩根士丹利收购的旗号、从事黄金外汇代理操盘保本业务的平台，并聘任银行、证券、期货、基金公司等金融机构资深从业人员组成核心专家分析团队。但实际上，所谓的香港恒丰环球集团只是通过中介公司注册的空壳公司，该集团官网上介绍其位于香港中环的环球总部以及北京中关村的客服中心经证实均为虚假地址，客服接线人员均外包给了中介公司。投资者的钱根本没有被用来投资，而是放在诈骗分子手上原封不动，挪作他用。该公司每天虚构数据，假装有赢有亏，到了月底就从投资者的本金当中拿出一部分当做盈利来分成，最后一次爆仓则是诈骗分子为了卷款跑路而编造的借口。

05数字货币陷阱

比特币的暴涨让人们对数字货币充满幻想，但实际上，真正有应用价值的、基于区块链技术的数字货币只是极少数，大多数数字货币是毫无实际应用价值的庞氏骗局。这些虚假的数字货币往往具有这样几个共同特点：注册免费得矿机，给推广人适当的收益；上涨过程中疯狂鼓励人买币，在下跌过程中，不断的宣传正是大家进场的好机会；代币的发行量未知，发行商是否真的遵守锁仓未知等；以数字货币为幌子来进行传销。

随着区块链热潮的推动，各种代币大行其道，五行币、亚盾币、维卡币等层出不穷。2017年，五行币在高调发展中曝光被相关部门查处。所谓五行币，是一种以高额返利为诱饵，打着“五行币”这一虚拟数字货币旗号的传销产品，借助快速暴富、发横财等令人心动的承诺，通过微信群、社交软件群、公众号进行洗脑，并辅之以线下活动，大肆招摇撞骗，给投资者及其家庭带来巨大财产和精神损失。与之类似，维卡币也通过微信群、QQ群、公众号进行洗脑，辅之以部分线下活动来进行传销，例如接待投资者到总部参观、组织成员聚餐等。某数字货币M则宣称让投资者有机会参与电影投资，共享票房收益。在一系列宣传的诱导下，成功募资50亿元，但几个月之内价格已经归零，官网也无法打开，所谓的电影投资都是虚构的。

06消费返利骗局

消费返利原本是一项常见的促销手段，如今却经常被包装成投资骗局。其主要特征是：通过互联网第三方平台介入商家和消费者的交易过程，许诺在平台的消费额度部分返回，或通过现金消费送等额积分等形式，诱导消费者注册会员消费和商家加盟平台回流货款。截至2017年7月，已有150余家“消费返利”传销骗局名单被央视曝光。


从1亿到1万：中国式投资陷阱全梳理

从1亿到1万：中国式投资陷阱全梳理


影响范围最大、造成后果最为严重的是“万家购物”案。“万家购物”返利网，声称在全国拥有300万会员，全国2000多个县市均有代理网点，联盟商家达10万家。通过会员会费缴纳，“万家购物”圈得大量资金。截至网站被查处时，“万家购物”实际已拥有近200万会员，涉案金额达240.45亿元。

北京巨鑫联盈科贸有限公司设购物返利骗局，借销售商品之名，行非法集资之实，在短短两年多内非法吸收4万余人的资金26亿余元。

被央视曝光的人人公益，号称消费者、平台、商家三方共赢，消费者每在平台上消费100元会有99元分期返还，平台将剩余1元用做公益，商家只要把消费额的固定比例交给平台也可分期返利。实际上，平台的返利并不是现金而是一种虚拟币爱心豆，取现操作十分复杂且时间很慢，到最后根本取不出来。

07理财产品诈骗

理财产品诈骗往往许诺高收益，利用投资者贪图高收益的心理来谋求其本金。理财产品诈骗往往借助银行、基金、保险等金融机构进行，或注册假基金、假民营银行来忽悠投资者。最为常见的形式是银行理财飞单，即银行员工被投资公司的高佣金所吸引，私自与其他投资公司“勾结”，以银行的名义出售投资公司的理财产品，并过分夸大收益加以蒙骗，导致投资者上当。


从1亿到1万：中国式投资陷阱全梳理


其中涉案规模最大，最为引人注目的是金赛银基金事件。2015年10月，深圳金赛银基金管理有限公司陷入60亿元兑付危机中，金赛银负责人王维奇跑路，客户的几十亿资金无处追讨，无处申诉；而平安人寿被曝由其业务员向客户兜售的巨额金赛银理财产品无法兑付。通过高档豪华会所装门面、拉拢政府官员打着政府项目的旗号推销、打平安保险担保的幌子、宣传公司挂牌上海股交中心等方式，金赛银公司吸引了大量投资者购买其理财产品，但这些钱实则进入了王维奇的个人私款。这一事件的背后，存在着一条“有毒资产”转嫁链条：信托公司把信托贷款、债权等问题产品转给第三方私募接盘；私募公司金赛银通过动员平安员工“接飞单”等方式，打通了平安集团的销售渠道，募得巨额资金，最终挪作它用，导致原本就存在问题的资产链条断裂。


从1亿到1万：中国式投资陷阱全梳理


08合伙人或原始股骗局

合伙人或原始股骗局，即通过邀请投资者成为公司合伙人或向投资者虚称企业已经或即将上市、发售原始股的方式，向投资者鼓吹一夜暴富的美梦，实则利用投资资金非法集资。在“人无股权不富”的投资概念冲击下，一场场原始股售卖大戏开始集中上演，除了高回报、一夜暴富等收益诱惑外，“上市公司”这些虚晃的光环更给了非法集资更堂而皇之的马甲。

这类骗局中最具代表性的是中晋系事件和段某某事件。2016年初，一场起于中晋系美女高管在网上炫富的照片，最终牵涉出庞大的中晋非法集资系列案。通过以“中晋合伙人计划”的名义变相承诺高额年化收益，中晋系向不特定公众大肆非法吸收资金，诈骗金额高达人民币400余亿元。其合伙人的种类名目繁多，包括一般合伙人、高级合伙人、明星合伙人、超级合伙人、战略合伙人，以及永久合伙人，并吸引了九球天后潘晓婷等明星加入；其中，高级、永久、超级合伙人各自的出资规模分别为1亿元。这些资金除了用于支付员工佣金外，还用于虚增业务收入，额外支付贸易补贴及奖励，同时个人挥霍近5亿元。

段某某于于2013年成立了上海优索环保科技发展有限公司。在2014年登陆上海股权托管交易中心挂牌后，优索环保在河南郑州召开了一场增资扩股的新闻发布会，向公众兜售原始股，许诺高达几十倍的高额收益，实质上却是一场面向大众的以非法集资为目的的股权融资骗局。为方便骗取投资者的资金，段某某利用其名下公司至翔商贸的POS机为投资者直接进行刷卡操作来进行资金的转移，刷卡后投资者在当场就能得到借款协议书和借款收据，且第一、二个月的利息在刷卡前就可以先行扣除，而此后的利息会按月打到投资者的卡上，这就使得投资者要到第三个月的付息日才会发现自己上当受骗，而这时公司早已人去楼空。经查证，该案在河南省的涉案金额高达2亿多元，受害者人数也达到了上千人。


从1亿到1万：中国式投资陷阱全梳理


总结这些不靠谱的投资品都有几个共性：

第一， 一般承诺固定收益

不管这些不靠谱的投资品具体形式如何，销售人员在向投资者推销过程中一般会强调不会亏损，保证固定收益。但这只是理想化的，安全性和收益率无法兼顾，有收益必定有风险。即便是国债都有风险，更何况是这些不明来路的机构。

而事实上，承诺固定收益、保本收益是违反我国有关监管规定的。2014年8月，中国证监会发布《私募投资基金监督管理暂行办法》，明确了私募基金不得向投资者承诺资本金不受损失或者承诺最低收益。2011年12月，国家发改委办公厅正式发布《关于促进股权投资企业规范发展的通知》，剑指非法集资，禁止“固定回报承诺”。在更早以前的1998年6月，国务院也已发布《非法金融机构和非法金融业务活动取缔办法》，首次明文涉及“固定回报承诺”的违法可能性。而《刑法》第176条更是表明，一旦涵盖“固定回报承诺”的融资活动被定性为“非法吸收公众存款罪”，“固定回报承诺”将被列为刑事犯罪的重要证据。

第二，收益率一般偏高

越不靠谱的投资品收益越是高的惊人，如中晋系号称有10%-25%甚至40%的高收益，远超过市场平均收益率。然而，综观大类资产2008年12月31日至今近10年以来的收益率，可以发现其平均年化收益率均在10%以下，收益率最高的房地产平均年化收益率为7.79%。以股票为例，上证综指和深证成指近10年的年化收益率均在5%-6%之间，包含上证市场规模最大、流动性最好的蓝筹股的上证50年化收益率也仅为7.19%。但股票资产近250周波动率均在20%以上，风险远远高于债券、商品等资产。而风险最低的债券年化收益率均较低，上证国债为3.28%，中证公司债为5.25%。由此可见，高收益率低风险是一个巨大的投资骗局，在当前各类资产市场回报率较低的情况下，可以说承诺超过10%收益的短期产品基本上都是骗局。


从1亿到1万：中国式投资陷阱全梳理


第三， 底层资产不清晰

任何一种金融产品，不管包装得多复杂，也一定有一个底层的实体资产，否则这个产品就是无源之水。底层资产不清楚，一定是基础薄弱，上层产品随时都会坍塌。然而，不少网贷产品经常把诸多底层资产打包成为一款新的产品，使得投资人无法直接了解底层资产究竟是什么；其底层资产也往往是信用贷、消费金融、车贷、房贷、应收装款转让等，其基础较为薄弱且资金回收周期可能较长。更有甚者，不少投资机构不愿意给客户提供全部的底层资产清单，认为没有必要。

而规范的金融产品，尽管其结构设计较为复杂，却有容易变现的底层资产作为保障。以国内首只REITs中信启航为例，其资产结构较为复杂，却十分清晰，拥有北京、深圳的中信证券大厦的租金收入作为底层资产。在这一产品中，中信证券首先在天津注册成立两家全资子公司——天津京证、天津深证，然后将北京中信证券大厦、深圳中信证券大厦的房地产权属分别过户天津京证、天津深证，之后再将天津京证、天津深证的全部股权转让给中信金石基金管理有限公司拟发起设立的非公募基金的全资孙公司中信金石基金。中信金石基金作为非公募基金的投资载体，向中信证券收购天津京证和天津深证的股权，以达到为非公募基金的投资者提供投资业务的目的。另一方面，中信证券成立中信启航专项资产管理计划，募集资金100%认购基金份额，按70.1%：29.9%的比例划分为优先级和次级，向非公募基金出资。项目公司获取的租金收入用于分配专项资管计划的收入。

从1亿到1万：中国式投资陷阱全梳理


第四，借新还旧、庞氏融资

很多投资陷阱往往初期回报还不错，但大部分骗局的背后是借新还旧、庞氏融资。庞氏骗局意味着初期必须让资金先滚动起来，怎么办呢？就要让初期投资者尝到甜头，让他们去宣传，去拉新人进来。等到进来的人越来越多的时候，再卷款跑路，这对集资方是最有利的。

综观这些投资骗局，往往具有不断发行、募集规模在短时间内暴增的特点。如e租宝于2014年内7月上线，到2014年12月8日总交易量就达到745.68亿元；白昊和他的昊达投资利用乌金煤业这公司的项目反复融资，短短三年非法筹集52亿元资金，但稍加思考就会发现一个公司不可能有如此之多的项目来反复进行融资。

而一些正规投资渠道的项目或理财产品，往往不会存在反复融资的情况，大多会将融资规模控制在一定范围内。从图6列举的五只明星基金的募集份额情况来看，东方红睿满沪港深、东方红睿华沪港深、东方红沪港深、东方红中国优势的募集份额均维持得十分平稳，其中前两只基金的份额在成立以来均维持不变，东方红中国优势的份额甚至还有下降。兴全趋势投资混合基金的募集份额虽然在近两年来有较快的增长，但其募集份额规模较更早时候的2008年来看，也有明显的下滑；2008年3月31日，该基金的募集份额一度高达20536270957份。


从1亿到1万：中国式投资陷阱全梳理


说了这么多，其实道理很简单，天下永远没有免费的午餐，当你觉得一个投资产品可以躺着赚钱的时候，你的钱袋子可能已经被人打开了。

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# posted by TopTrader @ Sunday, April 29, 2018 0 comments

01 February 2018

 

一月的股市和vix的变化


来源: 火爆老头 于 2018-01-31 17:12:05 [档案] [博客] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 本文已被阅读： 2878 次 (2707 bytes)
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先说vix的变化，算是回答蛋弟的问题。xiv对应的是未来30天的vix的期货，通过未来两个月的期货（F1，F2）的加权得到，和vix本身（spot value）没有直接的关系。vix未来的变化真的很难说，但是历史平均是16.5左右，中值不到15.5，所以有相当一部分时间是低于15的。vix一月份的变化还是很有规律的。老头在城头的帖子中（1月24日，http://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/69997/201801/28862.html ），就说那几天vix逆市上涨，提醒各位注意，结果26日大市新高，然后是连续三天的调整。当时老头以为是大市太高，很多买家不少人买了vix期货用以hedge大市的可能变化。当然了，也有防止本周川爷SOTU和Fed meeting的作用。

今天，vix在逆市中回落，主要是三个原因。第一是股市已经调整了三天，弱手差不多都跑了；第二，川爷的SOTU比较出彩；第三，Feb meeting没有出现意外，所以vix就不好意思再在高位嘚瑟了，只能下来。至于未来能否低于11，老头以为是肯定的，不过是什么时候，是谁也说不准的事情。vix从去年八月一直低调，今年按照道理，应该要高涨一点，但是是否真的要去13的基准线也是见仁见智的事情，等大市走出来了再总结容易得多。

一月的股市，比老头想象的还要猛烈，sp增长了5.6%，算是历史很好的了，不知是不是1月份的记录。最近最好的一次，老头依稀记得16年的三月，那个月是6.6%，因为数字老头比较喜欢，所以记忆深刻。在这样的股市中，如果大家还不能挣钱的话，老头真心劝你回归大市的指数，真的。

最近几家国际公司的报表，都出现了tax cut expense，让老头想到了一件事，是以前没有想到的。那就是，很多公司可能把本来是2018年的expense都提前放到了2017年的Q4，这样做的好处是抵消2017年的交税。因此，2018年Q1的额外助力有三层，一是税改的直接部分，二是从国外拿钱回来投资的预期性，三是17年Q4提前expense给18年Q1节省的开支，三者相加，预计Q1的结果要远比目前的估计要好。因此，老头觉得大市在Q1至少还有不少的增长，在5月份之前，甚至是6月之前都不会有大的调整。前景值得期待。

在这个大趋势下，做熊只能是自讨苦吃，还是好好地做牛吧，最次也只能做猪，真的。

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# posted by TopTrader @ Thursday, February 01, 2018 0 comments
 

China to issue new five-year visas to attract foreigners of Chinese origin from 01 Feb 2018

Following changes to visa rules, foreigners of Chinese origin will be able to apply for visas valid for multiple entries over a period of five years, up from one year previously.

By Danson Cheong

SINGAPORE - Many ethnic Chinese living outside of China will be able to apply for visas valid for much longer stays from Thursday (Feb 1), as the country tries to attract overseas Chinese to live and do business there.

Following changes to visa rules, foreigners of Chinese origin will be able to apply for visas valid for multiple entries over a period of five years, up from one year previously.

The changes will also see validity periods for residency permits for these foreigners extended from three years to five, reported the state-run China Daily last week (Jan 23).


China's Ministry of Public Security announced these changes last week, and said the move is meant to make it easier for these foreigners to "return home" to visit their families, do business and attend to personal errands.

A foreigner of Chinese origin refers to either a former Chinese citizen who has obtained foreign citizenship, or the children of present or former Chinese citizens, according to China's official definition, reported the South China Morning Post.

Such an individual would need to have one parent, grandparent or ancestor who is or was a Chinese citizen.


The changes would most directly affect former Chinese citizens and their children, since it would be easier for them to prove their Chinese origin by submitting official documents issued by China, such as copies of their Chinese passports or identity cards, or those of their relatives.

Documents issued by overseas governments certifying their Chinese ethnicity can also be submitted but these would have to be assessed by the Chinese embassy or consulate in the country of their origin, according to the Overseas Chinese Affairs Office in Shanghai.

Some other countries with ancestry visas
United Kingdom
The UK issues ancestry visas to people who meet certain eligibility requirements.
They must be Commonwealth citizens, be applying from outside the country, planning and able to work in the UK, and able to prove that one of their grandparents was born in the country.
They can stay in the UK for five years on this visa and can also apply to settle in the country permanently.

Japan
Long-term resident visas allowing holders to stay for up to five years are issued to a narrow category of people, including those who have Japanese ancestry.
Such individuals could be second- and third-generation children of Japanese citizens who settled overseas, or grandchildren of Japanese nationals.

India
Foreigners who were formerly Indian nationals, and their children and grandchildren can register to be an Overseas Citizen of India.
This is a multiple entry, multi-purpose lifelong visa to visit the country.

South Korea
The country issues the F-4 visa to overseas Koreans, which include foreigners who were formerly Korean nationals, and their children and grandchildren.
These visa holders can stay and work in the country for up to two years, and can apply to extend their period of stay.

According to China Daily, Mr Qu Yunhai, director of the Ministry of Public Security's Exit and Entry Administration Bureau, said at a news conference last week that the move was an upgrade of similar measures issued in recent years to encourage overseas Chinese "to participate in China's economic development".

"Such rules have played a positive role in serving China's social and economic development and attracting talent with innovative and entrepreneurial spirit," he said.

Dr Yew Chiew Ping, head of the Singapore University of Social Sciences' contemporary China studies programme, said the visa changes are part of China's soft power strategy to reach out to more overseas Chinese.

"In this sense, the Chinese government may believe that overseas Chinese would develop more positive or favourable views of China once they visit or live there, and see for themselves the rapid and tremendous socio-economic transformation in the country," she said.

Ms Sun Xueling, chief executive of non-profit organisation Business China, said the new policy also complements China's goal to become a science and technology powerhouse, noting also that this would increase global competition for talent.

But she also added that the new visa, if executed well, would make it easier for Chinese Singaporeans to do business in China.

"China produces around 7 million graduates a year, but is adopting measures such as this to attract even more talents to power its economic growth," said Ms Sun.

Mr Charlie Li, who moved here from Shanghai when he was three and became a Singapore citizen 20 years ago, feels the visa changes would be useful for former Chinese citizens.

"I have grandparents in Shanghai, and this would make it easier for me if I need to return to take care of my grandparents when they get older," said the 29-year-old bank analyst.

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# posted by TopTrader @ Thursday, February 01, 2018 0 comments

29 January 2018

 

Micro-Mechanics’ 1H18 Net Profit Grows 34.6% to S$9.1 million

 Group net profit in 2Q18 increases 16.1% to S$3.9 million
 Paying higher interim dividend of 4.0 cents per share on 13 February 2018
 Sound balance sheet with cash of S$22.4 million and zero debt
Singapore, 27 January 2018 – Micro-Mechanics (Holdings) Ltd. (“Micro-Mechanics” or the “Group”), a
manufacturer of high precision tools and parts used in process-critical applications for the semiconductor
industry, has delivered a record first half net profit of S$9.1 million for the six months ended 31 December
2017 (“1H18”), up 34.6% from the same period a year ago.
The bottom line was driven by higher revenue, better gross profit margin and a continued tight rein on
expenses. The Group achieved its highest-ever first half revenue of S$33.3 million in 1H18, up 21.1% from
1H17. Gross profit margin in 1H18 also improved to 58.7% from 56.4% in 1H17.
For the second quarter ended 31 December 2017 (“2Q18”), the Group reported a 16.1% increase in net
profit to S$3.9 million on the back of revenue growth of 10.3% to S$15.6 million.
In line with Micro-Mechanics’ long-held practice of rewarding shareholders, the Group will be paying a
higher interim dividend of 4 cents per share (one-tier tax exempt) on 13 February 2018, compared to 3
cents per share a year ago.
CEO of Micro-Mechanics, Mr Chris Borch said, “The growth in the Group’s revenue and net profit in 1H18
reflected the strength of the semiconductor industry, our focus on customers and the value we create for
them, as well as our continual efforts to enhance manufacturing processes, productivity and cost structure.
This enabled the Group to deliver higher profit margins in spite of ongoing selling price and cost pressures.”
According to the Semiconductor Industry Association, world-wide chip sales rose 22.6% during the fivemonth
period from July to November 2017. The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics recently reported
that it expects worldwide chip sales to grow 20.6% to a record US$408.7 billion for 2017, and to increase by
another 7% in 2018.
“Current market forecasts point to an upward trajectory for global chip sales in 2018. We believe this
positive outlook is underpinned by the prevalence of semiconductors in our daily lives. However, we expect
to see continued price and cycle-time pressures as the chip industry is increasingly driven by price-sensitive
consumer applications. We will also need to manage challenges from rising costs and shortage of skilled
workers. As the Group grows, we plan to continue automating our operations, streamlining our processes
and using technology to leverage the know-how and skills of our people,” said Mr Borch.
As at 31 December 2017, Micro-Mechanics had a sound financial position with total assets of S$70.2
million, shareholders’ equity of S$57.2 million, cash and cash equivalents of S$22.4 million and zero debt.

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# posted by TopTrader @ Monday, January 29, 2018 0 comments

26 January 2018

 

PARKWAY LIFE REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST - Outlook

Commenting on the performance of 2017, Mr. Yong Yean Chau, Chief Executive Officer of
the Manager said: “Building on our strategies and network developed in the last 10 years, we
are pleased to deliver another sound set of results for Unitholders in 2017. In 1Q 2017, we
completed our 2nd Strategic Japan Asset Recycling Exercise and successfully rebalanced our
Japan portfolio with the acquisition of five better quality Japan properties. Maintaining a strong
focus in cultivating good Landlord-Lessee relationships, three more asset enhancement
initiatives were rolled out for our Japan portfolio in 2017, bringing the total to twelve to-date.
Throughout the year, proactive financial and capital management continues to work in unison
to enhance the stability of distributions to Unitholders. We enter our second decade with
confidence, with a healthy level of gearing and a lowered effective all-in cost of debt. With no
refinancing need till 2019, the weighted average debt to maturity had been lengthened to 3.1
years from 2.9 years7, with a well staggered debt maturity profile. Our interest cover ratio
stands healthy at 11.3 times with interest rate exposure largely hedged and the JPY net
income fully hedged till 1Q 2022.
Moving into the new financial year, our sound fundamentals continue to serve as the bulwark
as we stay watchful for growth opportunities for PLife REIT.”

The long-term outlook of the industry continues to be driven by favourable patient demographics and
demand for better quality healthcare and aged care services.
Parkway Life REIT’s enlarged portfolio of 49 high-quality healthcare and healthcare-related assets
places it in a good position to benefit from the resilient growth of the healthcare industry in the Asia
Pacific region.
In addition, Parkway Life REIT is supported by favourable rental lease structures, where at least 95%
of its Singapore and Japan portfolios have downside revenue protection and 62% of the total portfolio
is pegged to CPI-linked revision formulae, ensuring steady future rental growth whilst protecting
revenue stability amid uncertain market conditions.

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# posted by TopTrader @ Friday, January 26, 2018 0 comments
 

CDL HOSPITALITY TRUSTS - Outlook

Total visitor arrivals to Singapore grew 5.8% year-on-year (“yoy”) to 14.5 million for year-to-date (“YTD”) October
2017, mainly due to an increase in arrivals from China and India.

. The Singapore Tourism Board (“STB”) continues
to position Singapore as a leading MICE destination and newly secured flagship events being featured in 2018
include Industrial Transformation Asia Pacific, the Asia Pacific edition of a HANNOVER MESSE event on industrial
technology
, and Money20/20, the Asia Pacific edition of the world’s largest FinTech event3
. In 2018, Singapore is
also the ASEAN chairman, where Singapore will host several meetings and events involving foreign delegates
across the year, including the 32nd and 33rd ASEAN Summit4
.
In 2018, the pace of growth of the Singapore economy is projected to remain firm and global growth to pick up
marginally5
. The macro-economic backdrop is expected to be a supportive demand driver for the Singapore
hospitality market6
.
The net supply for hotel inventory in Singapore is estimated to increase by 7697
rooms in 2018, representing approximately 1.2% of existing room stock. While the supply growth tapers off from 2018, room rates are likely to
remain competitive in the near term as new hotels opened in 2017 seek to build their base. For the first 24 days of January 2018, RevPAR for the Singapore Hotels decreased by 5.5% as compared to the same period last year.

In New Zealand, international visitor arrivals increased 7.0% yoy to a record 2.9 million for YTD October 2017,
reflecting the steady growth momentum in the tourism market.

Tourism demand in Japan continues to be healthy with visitor arrivals increasing 19.3% yoy to 28.7 million for the
year 2017 . However, competition in Tokyo’s economy hotel market arising from increases in new supply and
minpaku (peer-to-peer accommodation) may moderate growth in room rates in the near term10.
In the Maldives, the increase in new rooms supply, which has intensified price competition amongst resorts, coupled
with the decline in visitor arrivals from China, continue to affect trading conditions. Forward demand growth is
supported by increased flight capacity from destinations including Europe, Southeast Asia and the Middle East11.
In the United Kingdom, visitor arrivals increased 5.5% yoy to 33.3 million for YTD October 201712. Total arrivals are
expected to grow 6.2% in 2017 and a further 4.4% in 2018, although Brexit and Sterling pound-related uncertainties
may weigh on overall demand.

The Eurozone continues to record economic growth and the positive economic environment has led to
strengthening business optimism in Germany14. In Munich, total international visitor arrivals increased 12.9% yoy for
YTD October 201715. While there is an increase in new rooms supply in the city in the near term, the strong pipeline
of trade shows over the next two years16 will provide support for the Munich hospitality market.
CDLHT continuously executes its proactive asset management strategy where opportunities are evaluated
periodically to recycle capital for better returns, unlock underlying asset values and enhance its assets.

In Singapore, the renovation of the restaurant in Orchard Hotel, Hua Ting, was completed and it has opened in
December 2017. In order to capture the demand from MICE events in the first four months of 2018, refurbishment
works for the guest rooms in the Orchard wing of the Orchard Hotel, is being rescheduled to May 2018, together
with planned works for a significant portion of the public areas. While the hotel will face some disruption in the short
term, the completed refurbishment exercise will improve overall guest experience and augment the competitiveness
of the asset to be positioned for the recovery in the Singapore hotel sector. CDLHT will continuously explore asset
enhancement opportunities for the Singapore Hotels.
In the Maldives, refurbishment of 28 land villas is being planned in the third quarter of 2018 for Angsana Velavaru.
For CDLHT’s other Maldives resort, Dhevanafushi Maldives Luxury Resort, extensive asset enhancement plans are
being finalised and will culminate in a full re-branding exercise in late 2018. This transition process to a “Raffles”
resort, under the iconic collection of Raffles Hotels and Resorts, will lead to sub-optimal revenue contribution until
the exercise is completed.

In Australia, CDLHT successfully completed the divestment of Mercure Brisbane and Ibis Brisbane in January 2018,
for an attractive exit yield and a premium over the original purchase price and latest independent valuation. The
Managers of CDLHT intend to utilise the proceeds from the divestment mainly to repay existing borrowings, which
will further strengthen CDLHT’s balance sheet. Part of the gains will also be used to make distributions to stapled
securityholders in FY 2018.
With ample debt headroom and a robust balance sheet, CDLHT will continue to actively pursue suitable
acquisitions to diversify and augment its income streams.

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# posted by TopTrader @ Friday, January 26, 2018 0 comments
 

Ascendas Reit - Outlook for FY17/18

In Singapore, island-wide vacancy rate of industrial properties remained at about 11% as at
31 December 2017. Ascendas Reit’s Singapore occupancy rate fell by 1.3% from 90.1% in
the previous quarter due to the increasing supply and stronger competition for quality
tenants.

Year-to-date, three properties in Singapore have been divested for total proceeds of S$60.8
million. This is in line with the Manager’s proactive asset management strategy to redeploy
capital and optimise returns for Unitholders.

In Australia, two suburban offices at 100 and 108 Wickham Street in Brisbane were
separately acquired. This helps to diversify Ascendas Reit’s portfolio geographically and
improves earnings stability from its long leases and quality tenants. The Australia portfolio
currently comprises 31 properties with a total value of S$1.5 billion.

The Singapore economy grew by 3.5% y-on-y in 2017 and is forecast to grow by 1.5% to
3.5% in 2018. The growth is supported by the manufacturing sector as well as externally oriented
sectors such as wholesale trade, transportation & storage and finance & insurance
(source: Ministry of Trade and Industry).

Consensus GDP growth forecast for Australia in 2017 and 2018 is 2.3% and 2.8%
respectively (source: Bloomberg). Non-mining business investment continues to support
growth as Australia transitions away from commodity investment.
There is a general consensus that the global economic outlook has generally improved.
However, downside risks include geopolitical tensions and a potential increase in trade
protectionist policies.

Ascendas Reit’s performance for FY17/18 is expected to remain stable.

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# posted by TopTrader @ Friday, January 26, 2018 0 comments

25 January 2018

 

CAPITALAND COMMERCIAL TRUST

Commentary on the competitive conditions of the industry in which the group operates and any known
factors or events that may affect the group in the next reporting period and the next 12 months

The Trust achieved higher distributable income despite a challenging Singapore office market in 2017. CCT’s
distributable income grew by 7.4% to S$288.9 million, up from S$269.0 million in the previous year. The year-onyear
increase was due to stronger performance from CapitaGreen, a S$4.4 million top up for the loss of distributable
income arising from the divestments of One George Street (50.0% interest) and Wilkie Edge and a S$8.0 million taxexempt
income distribution.
The Trust embarked on another successful cycle of portfolio reconstitution in 2017 by unlocking value with the
divestments of Wilkie Edge and a 50.0% interest in One George Street at exit yields of 3.4% and 3.2% respectively
and redeploying divestment proceeds to the acquisition of Asia Square tower 2 (“AST2”), a higher yielding asset, as
well as the redevelopment of Golden Shoe Car Park.
On 13 July 2017, the Manager had announced the formation of a joint venture between CCT (45.0% interest),
CapitaLand Singapore Limited (45.0% interest), a wholly owned subsidiary of CapitaLand Limited, and Mitsubishi
Estate Co., Ltd (10.0% interest), to redevelop Golden Shoe Car Park into an integrated development comprising
Grade A office, ancillary retail, serviced residence and food centre with a gross floor area of approximately one
million square feet. The redevelopment of Golden Shoe Car Park is expected to be completed in the first half of
2021 and will further strengthen CCT’s lead as the largest commercial landlord in Singapore’s Central Business
District by net lettable area.

On 1 November 2017, CCT completed the acquisition of AST2. The acquisition was funded by divestment proceeds,
bank borrowings and a S$700.0 million rights issue that was over-subscribed by 1.8 times. The Manager
appreciates the support from unitholders on the rights issue. The committed occupancy of AST2 was 90.5% as at
end December 2017. CCT will continue to proactively lease the balance space to enhance income.
CCT’s S$175.0 million convertible bonds were fully converted into 122.7 million CCT units before its maturity date of
12 September 2017 at the conversion price of S$1.4265 per unit. The Trust has a healthy balance sheet with an
aggregate leverage of 37.3% (well below the regulatory limit of 45.0%) and an average cost of debt of 2.6% as at 31
December 2017. About 80% of the Trust’s borrowings are pegged at fixed rates, which offer greater certainty of
interest expense in a rising interest rate environment. The Manager continues to adopt a proactive capital
management strategy to optimise the average term to maturity and cost of borrowings. For the S$1.12 billion bridge
facility obtained for the acquisition of Asia Square Tower 2 due in 2019, CCT has obtained S$600 million in
unsecured bank loans to refinance it ahead of its maturity. The Trust awaits the right opportunity and timing to
refinance the remaining S$520.0 million.

Outlook for 2018

Based on data from CBRE Pte. Ltd., Singapore’s Core CBD and Grade A occupancy rates in 4Q 2017 were 93.8%,
with the Grade A occupancy rate tracking an uptick of 2.2% from 91.6% in 3Q 2017. Average monthly rent for
Grade A offices rose to S$9.40 per square foot in 4Q 2017, an increase of 3.3% year-on-year. Market rents are
expected to rise in light of limited new office supply in the next few years and reported high pre-commitment levels of
recently completed and upcoming office buildings in the CBD. Lower net property income is expected in FY 2018 at
some CCT properties given the flow through from negative rent reversions of leases committed in 2017 into 2018
and that rents of leases expiring in 2018 are higher than current market rent. However, CCT will leverage on rising
market rents to close the gap between signing and committed rents.

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# posted by TopTrader @ Thursday, January 25, 2018 0 comments

19 January 2018

 

Singapore, Malaysia ink bilateral agreement to build Rapid Transit System Link by 2024

From Business Times


When the Johor Baru-Singapore Rapid Transit System Link opens in 2024, commuters will be able to hop on a train every four to eight minutes.
PUBLISHEDJAN 16, 2018, 12:20 PM SGTUPDATEDJAN 17, 2018, 12:16 AM
FACEBOOK340TWITTEREMAIL
Royston SimAssistant Political Editor
SINGAPORE - Singapore and Malaysia have inked a legally binding bilateral agreement to build a cross-border MRT line that will let commuters travel seamlessly between Woodlands North and Johor Baru.

The signing at the Istana on Tuesday (Jan 16) is a concrete step towards the building of the 4km Rapid Transit System (RTS) Link, which is set to open by Dec 31, 2024. Construction is expected to begin next year.

This is the second bilateral agreement between both countries in two years, following a deal in 2016 to build a 350km high-speed rail line between Kuala Lumpur and Singapore.


Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong and Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak witnessed the signing of the bilateral agreement by Coordinating Minister for Infrastructure Khaw Boon Wan, who is also Transport Minister, and Malaysia's Minister in the Prime Minister's Department Abdul Rahman Dahlan.

The Rapid Transit System Link will be run by a joint venture formed by rail operators SMRT and Prasarana Malaysia, for the first concession period of 30 years.

The link is expected to reduce congestion at border crossings between Singapore and Malaysia.

When the RTS Link begins service, commuters can hop on a train every eight minutes on average. Trains will eventually arrive every four minutes on average during peak periods.


Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong and Malaysian counterpart Najib Razak shaking hands following a joint press conference during the annual Leaders’ Retreat on Jan 16. ST PHOTO: ONG WEE JIN
The line will start with five trains, and gradually have a total fleet of seven trains.

Up to 10,000 passengers an hour can travel in each direction between Johor's Bukit Chagar terminus station and the Singapore terminus in Woodlands North, where it will join the upcoming Thomson-East Coast Line (TEL).

Commuters will be able to transfer from the Rapid Transit System station to the Thomson-East Coast Line concourse via an underground link, without needing to exit the station.

Related Story
7 things to know about the upcoming Johor Baru-Singapore Rapid Transit System Link
Like the high-speed rail line, the Rapid Transit System Link - which will cross the Strait of Johor via a 25m-high bridge - will have a joint customs, immigration and quarantine facility at both terminus stations.

This means international-bound travellers will need to clear customs and immigration only once, when departing from the respective countries.

Taking into account the Johor Sultan’s earlier reservations about the project, the new link’s tracks will cross the Strait of Johor in a straight line rather than curving over water, making a bend over land in Malaysia instead.

In August last year, Sultan Ibrahim Sultan Iskandar had said that the idea for a curved bridge was impractical, unsustainable and potentially costly. He also said such a design would disrupt the Johor Baru city skyline, and agreed in November to the construction of a straight elevated bridge for the rail line instead.

It remains unclear if the rail link will be entirely above ground, and the authorities here are studying the need to acquire land in Singapore for the project.

The daily shuttle train service from Woodlands to Johor Baru will stop operating within six months of the link's opening.

The rail link project was announced in May 2010, with the completion date initially set for 2018.

In 2015, Malaysia chose Bukit Chagar as the main terminal station for the line, which will use the same rail systems and rolling stock as the 31-station TEL. The TEL will open in phases from 2019 to 2024.


Ahead of the retreat, the two prime ministers officially opened the 30-storey Marina One in Marina Bay district on Monday (Jan 15) evening.

Duo, a mixed-use development in the nearby Ophir-Rochor district, was lit up to mark its official opening too.

The developments are the outcome of a historic pact between Singapore and Malaysia in 2010 and reflect the turn in the ties between the two neighbours after a 20-year impasse.

During the deadlock, they wrangled over plots of railway land in Singapore that Malaysia had previously controlled.

Eventually, in return for the three plots and another three plots in Bukit Timah, Singapore offered four parcels of land in Marina South and two parcels of land in Ophir-Rochor for development.

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# posted by TopTrader @ Friday, January 19, 2018 0 comments
 

Do I need to pay GST on the bag I bought overseas? 8 things you need to know

From Business Times

This story was first published on Jan 14, 2016, and updated on Jan 19, 2018

SINGAPORE - A 25-year-old woman was arrested at Changi Airport on Jan 12 after she failed to declare the branded items she had bought overseas for goods and services tax (GST) payment.

Officers checked her luggage when she tried to exit through the Customs Green Channel without declaring the items, which were worth more than $11,000.


The Singaporean woman had arrived on a flight from Paris with at least two handbags, several wallets and a belt.

Travellers, including Singaporeans returning from overseas, will have to pay GST on the value of the goods that exceeds the GST relief.

GST for goods valued below $150 is not applicable for travellers who are out of Singapore for less than 48 hours. For those who are away for more than 48 hours, GST is exempt for goods valued up to $600.

Still unsure about when you need to pay GST and how much to pay? Here are the answers to some commonly asked questions:

1. WHY DO SINGAPOREANS HAVE TO PAY GST ON THEIR PURCHASES OVERSEAS?
GST is a tax on local consumption. All goods brought into Singapore are subject to 7 per cent GST regardless of whether they are imported through commercial shipments or hand-carried by travellers for their own personal use.

Such goods include new articles, souvenirs, gifts and food preparations purchased overseas and meant for the traveller's personal use.

The policy of GST imposed on goods brought into Singapore has been in force since April 1, 1994,when GST was first implemented in Singapore.

Singapore's GST (known in some countries as Value Added Tax) on imports is consistent in all countries with GST or Value Added Tax systems.

There is no GST relief for liquor, tobacco products, petroleum and goods imported for commercial purposes.


2. IF THE ITEM WAS RECEIVED AS A GIFT, HOW IS THE TAX CALCULATED SINCE THERE WILL BE NO RECEIPT?
If the receipts are not available, the value of the goods will be assessed based on the values of identical or similar goods when computing the GST payable.

3. HOW MANY PEOPLE HAVE BEEN CAUGHT NOT DECLARING TAXABLE GOODS IN THE PAST YEARS?
In 2012 and 2013, there were 179 and 398 cases respectively where warnings or composition sums were issued.

ST_20160114_AUAPP14_1986998.jpg
Travellers arriving in Singapore (left). Those who use the Customs@SG app (above) can exit the checkpoint through the Customs Green Channel without having to stop to declare and pay the duty/GST for the goods at the Customs Tax Payment Office.
Related Story
New Customs app makes paying duties, GST easier
4. WHAT HAPPENS IF A TRAVELLER IS CAUGHT FOR NOT DECLARING GOODS PURCHASED ABROAD?
Travellers who are stopped at the checkpoints for not declaring goods purchased abroad with values exceeding their GST relief quantum will be referred to Singapore Customs. The GST due is collected from the travellers, with an advisory to pay GST for goods exceeding their GST relief.

Moreover, failure to declare the value of your purchases is an offence under the Customs Act and the GST Act. Offenders may be prosecuted in court, fined up to $10,000 and jailed for up to three years.

5. IF A TRAVELLER BUYS A BAG FROM A DUTY-FREE SHOP IN CHANGI AIRPORT WHILE LEAVING SINGAPORE, WILL HE/SHE BE TAXED ON THE BAG UPON ARRIVAL BACK TO THE COUNTRY?
The newly purchased bag is subject to GST if it exceeds the traveller's GST relief amount.

6. IS THE ITEM STILL SUBJECT TO GST IF THE TRAVELLER REMOVES THE PRICE TAG/PACKAGING AND USES THE ITEM BOUGHT OVERSEAS IMMEDIATELY?
These items are considered as new articles and are subject to GST if the traveller's GST relief amount is exceeded when the new items are brought into Singapore.

7. DO TRAVELLERS STILL HAVE TO PAY GST IF THEY HAVE ALREADY PAID SALES TAX FOR AN ITEM OVERSEAS AND DID NOT CLAIM TAX REBATE?
GST is applicable for items imported into Singapore regardless of whether foreign sales tax was paid for the items overseas as the items will be consumed in Singapore.

8. ARE GOODS SHIPPED BACK SEPARATELY (FROM SAME TRIP) ALSO SUBJECT TO GST?
For goods imported by post, a GST relief amount of up to $400 per shipment is granted. Where the value of the shipment exceeds $400, GST is payable on the total value of the shipment.

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# posted by TopTrader @ Friday, January 19, 2018 0 comments

15 January 2018

 

比特币的前世今生

先简单介绍一下比特币：bitcoin

它以一套编码系统为基础，通过复杂的计算而产生。任何人都可以通过相关的软件“制造”比特币，然后利用电子签名的方式来实现流通，最后通过 P2P 网络来核查重复消费的情况。

和传统货币最大的不同是，比特币没有一个中央发行机构——人们只需要运行比特币软件，就可以参与比特币的制造，这种方式被称为“挖矿”。比特币是人类历史上第一次进行去中心化的货币系统，而不以对中央发行机构的信任为基础。

1982 年，一个叫 David Chaum 的人提出一种不可追踪的密码学网络支付系统的设想。到了 1990 年，Chaum 将他的想法扩展为最初的密码学匿名现金系统，这个系统就是后来所谓的 ecash。

2008年，一个名叫中本聪（Satoshi Nakamoto）的人发表了一篇论文，论文描述了一种叫作比特币（Bitcoin）的电子现金系统。2009 年 1 月 3 日，比特币诞生，中本聪本人发布了开源的第一版比特币客户端。 2009 年 2 月 11 日 22 点 27 分，中本聪在 P2P 基金会（p2pfoundation）网站上发了一封帖子，正式对外介绍了比特币。它完全去中心化，没有中央服务器或者托管方，所有一切都是基于参与者。中本聪在这条帖子中写道：

“传统货币面临的根本的问题是——信任。央行必须让人相信它不会让货币贬值，但事实上贬值的结果经常出现。银行本应该帮我们保管好钱财，并让这些钱财以电子化的形式流通，但是他们却随意放贷，让这些财富淹没在泡沫中。”

2010 年，比特币的第一个公允汇率诞生，来源是相关论坛上用户之间自发产生的交易。第一笔交易是一名用户用 10000 比特币购买了一个披萨饼。目前，比特币最为主要的参考汇率是 Mtgox 交易所内比特币与美元的成交汇率。

经过计算，我们可以基本确定到 2140 年之前，比特币的总量为 2100 万个。为了避免通货紧缩的现象出现，每个比特币还可以分割为 10 的 8 次方份。

total

2010 年末，中本聪完全退出了这一项目，并在互联网上消失了。比特币的官方网站 bitcoin.org 注册于 2008 年 8 月 18 日，域名和服务器都托管在芬兰赫尔辛基的一家小型主机托管商 Louhi Net Oy 那里。中本聪在 P2P Foundation 上留下的信息显示他是名日本男性，现年 39 岁，不过有人怀疑中本村是其实是一个俄罗斯黑客，也有人认为他是一个团队的化名。

比特币的“淘金热”

目前已经有许多网站开始接受比特币交易。包括 Mtgox 以及部分淘宝商店，比特币兑换实体货币的服务也开始出现。也就是说，我们目前可以将比特币认定为真正的流通货币，而非一文不值的虚拟货币。

随着比特币数量不断增多，如今要获得一个比特币已经十分困难——现在想要通过“挖矿”获取一枚比特币，即便使用 AMD Radeon 6990 显卡也需要计算几天，配置一般的计算机则很可能连续运行 1 年都一无所获。于是，现在几乎所有的比特币“淘金者”都加入了合作掘金的网络。他们利用分布式计算的方式更快地挖到“金矿”。

比特币究竟有多值钱？让数字来说话吧。

2010 年，一枚比特币只能兑换 0.5 美分，到了 2011 年 6 月 3 日则可以换到 10.5 美元，涨幅为 200000％。在同年的 7 月 5 日，一枚比特币已经可以兑换到 13 美元，涨幅提高到了 260000％。

比特币的算法中规定了单位时间里所能产生的比特币的固定数量，而通过“挖矿”获得比特币的难度也越来越大，因此通过实体货币购买比特币也是一个重要途径。作为电子货币，除了交换商品之外，比特币也建立了一套与主权货币兑换的机制，以实现更好流通。于是各种交易平台也就应运而生。

来自爱尔兰的 James McCarthy 搭建了一个比特币现货全球交易平台 Global Bitcoin Stock Exchange，下设五个小公司。除了比特币兑换，他还尝试着提供租、借、投资等服务。他是中国境内最早使用比特币的人。最开始他用自己的电脑“挖矿”，获得了 1000 块比特币，后来将精力转向了比特币交易。

现在，除了极客以外，许多从事金融行业的人开始加入手机比特币的行列，一场浩浩荡荡的“淘金运动”已经悄悄拉开了序幕。

richman

概念的游戏

不得不承认，现在围绕着比特币已经诞生了一个行业的雏形，但从本质上讲，这股“淘金热”的背后仅仅只是一个概念罢了，想取代现行的货币流通体系更是天方夜谭。

为什么不可能？换个角度看就可以了。

如果我们将比特币视作货币，那么如何分配将会成为一个至关重要的问题。因为比特币本质上不可能做到平均分配，且没有使用价值，那么假设比特币真的取代了现行的货币制度，还是需要国家来进行分配，依然需要根据总量来定义额度。

其实比特币的概念简单说来，就是描绘了一种全世界所有国家开始停止发行货币的景象。这种假设规避了许多问题，却抽离了政府宏观调控的职能，看似维持了秩序实质上是在添乱。

说白了，我们可以把比特币理解成金子——总量有限，量不断增多（不断加工）且全球通行，在价值上并没有不同。既然没什么不同，那么我们就可以把比特币看做是一般等价物，我们可以消费比特币就像我们可以拿黄金去换东西一样，除了稀有没有什么特殊之处，唯一不同的地方在于——比特币是人造的。

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# posted by TopTrader @ Monday, January 15, 2018 0 comments

14 January 2018

 

教你用现在的电脑每天挖出5-10个数字币(整个过程免费)

来源: 人工智能 (from Wenxuecity.com) 于 2018-01-13 13:21:18

挖矿听起来很神秘，实际不需懂啥原理，挖就是了，看着挖出币的数量在增加，有成就及挣到钱的兴奋感。普通台式电脑或笔记本均可，如果是近一、二年的新机（i5、i7）一天可挖10个左右，3、5年的老机器有5个左右，无论你懂不懂电脑，10-20分钟应可搞定，步骤如下：

1）上 minergate.com signup 一个账号，只需email即可；
2）download适合你操作系统的挖矿软件，install（default即可）；
3）install后有界面输入你的email -> start mining, 挖矿开始；
4）default挖的是XMR（Monero,现单价$427.80）币值较大，不适合用CPU挖，你可停掉它，改挖BCN（Bytecoin）或XDN(DigitalNote);
5)为了边用电脑边挖矿，你可以留出1、2个核用于工作，其它核挖矿，如总共8核，可用6核挖矿；
6）Login进minergate.com网站，点击Dashboard,可看到你的挖矿成果。上www.coinmarketcap.com查查值多少钱.
option: 如果你的电脑有较强的显卡，可试试用显卡挖，速度快很多。

一边用电脑做事，一边挖矿，不太浪费电，一小时应1、2cents, 现时没啥经济效益，但以后涨上来，可能是一笔大钱，比特币刚上市也是几分钱一个，现在过万美元。

挖出币后请给本文点赞一个，谢谢。并通知亲朋好友,你已是加密数字货币矿工了,截图为证。

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# posted by TopTrader @ Sunday, January 14, 2018 0 comments

09 January 2018

 

6 Traits the Smartest People Have in Common

by Marcel Schwantes, Originally published at www.inc.com

You can be popular, talented, and brainy, but that doesn't mean you're smart (in an emotionally-intelligent sense). Ultimately, you'll find that smart people have keen insight into situations and practice good judgment.

But this is a type of smartness that one acquires from a way of being, not doing. It's wisdom that starts and ends with character, intuition, and integrity--not IQ or through the acquisition of more knowledge or expertise.

What choices do you see smart people make? Well, if you are one of them, you'd agree with me that these are normal-day occurrences for you. Do you agree?

You seek out reverse mentors.
Sure, books, webinars, classes, and the like help, but smart people stretch their knowledge beyond intellectual pursuits. A smart person is also wise enough to soak up the wisdom of others, acknowledging that they don't know it all. Here's a quote I saw the other day:

If you're the smartest person in the room, you're in the wrong room.

Metaphorically, you view yourself as a small fish in the great big pond of life. You'll seek out connections and appointments to learn to do great new things.

This includes finding a "reverse mentor." For years, we have thought of mentors as older and more experienced sages. And that's entirely appropriate, and there will always be a role for that type of mentorship.

But in this social era, smart people are catching on to the advantage of learning from reverse mentors. They can be younger and less experienced, but they're technologically-savvy and hold other expertise in unfamiliar terrain.

Smart people are open to new ideas, and they leverage reverse-mentor relationships as a work strategy. And if you're a boss, when bosses seek out and listen to their Millennial mentors to get fresh perspective, they will love and respect you.

You watch your words when you speak.
There's an old saying from a wise leader that goes like this:

Words satisfy the mind as much as fruit does the stomach; good talk is as gratifying as a good harvest.

So much conflict, confusion, and misunderstanding comes from our words and what we communicate.

Smart people are careful about what they speak, give good and sound advice, don't talk out of both sides of their mouth, and have the other person's best interest in mind. When they do these things, they get a lot more in return.

You're self-aware.
Self-awareness can alert you to what relationships to invest in and what advisers to seek counsel from. If they're having lunch with someone who is spreading malicious things about others, smart people are intuitive enough to know they may be next on his list. They walk away.

They're also aware of groupthink mentality at work, which can quickly lead to a toxic bandwagon that may send your reputation down the toilet. Smart people use self-awareness to recognize those red flags.

You're probably an introvert.
Chances are, if you grew up as that awkward, quiet, geeky kid with social anxiety, you were probably special and didn't know it. The Gifted Development Center says that 60 percent of gifted children are introverted.

It gets better. As an adult, you now leverage your strength for processing, contemplating, and thinking things over, which is a trait of really smart people. In fact, more than 75 percent of people with an IQ above 160 are introverted.

You're curious.
Albert Einstein famously said, "I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious."

Harvard Business Review reports that people with a higher "curiosity quotient" (CQ) are more inquisitive and generate more original ideas, and this "thinking style" leads to higher levels of knowledge acquisition over time.

CQ, the author states, "is the ultimate tool to produce simple solutions for complex problems."

You are a prolific listener.
Active listening is one of the least-taught skills in leadership, yet it's the most utilized. As studies point out, we spend 70 to 80 percent of our waking hours in some form of communication, and of that time, 45 percent is spent listening.

And while many people assume they're good listeners, studies confirm that most of us are poor and inefficient listeners. When you talk to your boss, co-workers, or customers for 10 minutes, studies say we pay attention to less than half of the conversation. Within 48 hours, whatever information we've retained decreases to 25 percent. In other words, we often comprehend and retain only one-fourth of what we hear.

Smart people know better. They leverage their active listening skills for solving problems, building trust, and winning the hearts and minds of people.

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# posted by TopTrader @ Tuesday, January 09, 2018 0 comments

18 October 2017

 

行为经济学三大观点

【经验】：人类95%的决策恁凭经验或一念之间 （Heuristics: Humans make 95% of their decisions using mental shortcuts or rules of thumb.）什么FA, TA, PA, 股市里来不得瞻前顾后，牛熊之断，买进卖出，往往一念之间而已。

【成见】：道听途说加上阅历成见构成了思考的过滤器，人们赖以了解判断处理所遇大小事情（Framing: The collection of anecdotes and stereotypes that make up the mental emotional filters individuals rely on to understand and respond to events.）还是经验而已。

【市场低效】价格错位及决策行为不合常理 (Market inefficiencies: These include mis-pricings and non-rational decision making.) 正因为决策的过程往往取决于个人的经验成见而非理性，其结果必然时常不合常理。股市涨则无顶，跌则无底，永远不会静止。

Richard Thaler今年撸奖，主要有三个贡献：前景理论Prospect Theory，禀赋作用Endowment effect，心帐理论Mental accounting。

前景理论（包括整个学派）基本结论如下

1，大多数人在面临获利的时候是风险规避的。比如过早卖了BABA在132,TCEHY在33怕失去获利。

2，大多数人在面临损失的时候是风险喜好的。留下PXD祈望翻本。

3，大多数人对得失的判断往往根据参考点决定。前高前低。

简言之，人在面临获利时，不愿冒风险；而在面临损失时，人人都成了冒险家。而损失和获利是相对于参照点而言的，改变评价事物时的参照点，就会改变对风险的态度。

禀赋作用基本结论

当个人一旦拥有某项物品，那么他对该物品价值的评价要比未拥有之前大大增加。比如买了一支股票，突然该公司，该版块，该行业，乃至整个股市增加关注。会不会有了自己的女（男）人，对其他女（男）人兴趣剧增？

心帐理论基本结论

1，分散的收益优于集中的收益。U (A) +U (B) > U (A+B）。五个账户平均各赚两万要比一个账户赚十万更开心。宁愿开心每一天，不要一天乐极（生悲）。

2，集中的损失好过分散的损失。U (-A) +U (-B) < U (-A-B）。五个账户平均各亏两万要比一个账户亏十万感觉好一点。俗话说长痛不如短痛。

3，用赚钱账户弥补亏损账户。中庸好过两极。

4，不让小小盈利淹没于大笔亏损，留一线希望。

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# posted by TopTrader @ Wednesday, October 18, 2017 0 comments

01 November 2016

 

炒股多年的一些经验（价值投资）


来源: piopio

炒股这么多年，总结些经验出来，攒些rp，针对大部分散户，天才高手请绕行，你们那
套眼花缭乱的玩意我学不来，大部分人也学不来，跟了亏了也不管赔偿，只能走火入魔。

1. 无论长线还是swing,永远买那些市场上的proven winner
proven winner就是你每天衣食住行的公司，简单说，去google搜索，去amazon购
物，去wmt/cost买菜，上wechat朋友圈，goog/amzn/wmt/cost/tencent这个组合在最近
5年绝对是大大beat sp500的。诸如twtr/fit/gpro等，想都不要想。对于大部分凡夫俗
子散户来说，好股票就在你眼前，问题不是你是否可以找到好股票，而是你愿意不愿意
买的问题。

2. 未来怎样我不知道，但中钙在过去10几年绝对是国人发财的机会，但前提是你要买
好股票，一定要买业界的winner. 千万不要买在市场没有确立地位的股票，当然保守会
让你丧失诸如vips等股票，但也会让你避免yoku/renn/dang等的雪崩。 tencent/ntes/
edu/ctrp/baba是现阶段buy dip的选择

3. 任何时候不要short. short很毁心态的，心态不好不可能赢的

4. 要有耐心. “不跌不回调，我就是不买”.

5. 无论买入卖出，多看看周线图，有了新低就多等等，有了新高就多等等卖。

6. TA稍微懂点就行了。 少数天才除外，大部分散户我觉的TA就是瞎掰，看出dip不需
要TA吧.

7. option少玩，我基本只操作covered call.

8. 油金子银子等各种commodity和vix相关股票，还有3x etf不要碰。取败之道没有比
这些再捷径的了。我就想问，你们炒oil和uvxy的，有几个今年赚到了？赚到了有我紧
盯ntes/tencent挣的多吗？

9 尽量收盘时候买卖，很多时候心态坏就坏在，上午刚买，下午就跌，上午刚卖，下午
就狂涨，然后就瞎操作了。

10. FA如果不懂也没关系，参照第1条，你需要看懂它们的报表吗?

11. DT就免了，不是常人能承受的。

1,2,3,7,8其实相对好执行，就是操作对象的纪律, 有所买，有所不买。 4,5,6,9手贱
难掌握，但即使控制不好，只要基本坚守1,2,3,7,8，赢钱几率还是很大的。

炒股就是个几率问题，你要让你的行动最大可能的提高你挣钱的几率，而买好股票是最
重要的一环。我也不是遵守的完美，毕竟是人，每次我违反规定，大部分时候就会吃到
恶果，好在水平也在提高，运气也不错，恶果越吃越少。

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# posted by TopTrader @ Tuesday, November 01, 2016 0 comments

02 May 2014

 

销售培训手册（绝版）

第一篇:销售日志

一、销售过程中销的是什么？
答案：自己

1、世界汽车销售第一人乔·吉拉德说：“我卖的不是我的雪佛兰汽车，我卖的是我自己”；
2、贩卖任何产品之前首先贩卖的是你自己；
3、产品与顾客之间有一个重要的桥梁:销售人员本身；
4、面对面销售过程中，假如客户不接受你这个人，他还会给你介绍产品的机会吗？
5、不管你如何跟顾客介绍你所在的公司是一流的，产品是一流的，服务是一流的，可是，如果顾客一看你的人，像五流的，一听你讲的话更像是外行，那么，一般来说，客户根本就不会愿意跟你谈下去。你的业绩会好吗？
6、你要让自己看起来更像一个好的产品。
7、为成功而打扮，为胜利而穿着。销售人员在形象上的投资，是销售人员最重要的投资。

二、销售过程中售的是什么？
答案：观念。

1、卖自己想卖的比较容易，还是卖顾客想买的比较容易呢？
2、是改变顾客的观念容易，还是去配合顾客的观念容易呢？、
3、所以，在向客户推销你的产品之前，先想办法弄清楚他们的观念，再去配合它。
4、如果顾客的购买观念跟我们销售的产品或服务的观念有冲突，那就先改变顾客的观念，然后再销售。
5、是客户掏钱买他想买的东西，而不是你掏钱；我们的工作是协助客户买到他认为最适合的。

三、买卖过程中买的是什么？
答案：感觉

1、人们买不买某一件东西通常有一个决定性的力量在支配，那就是感觉。
2、感觉是一种看不见、摸不着的影响人们行为的关键因素。
3、它是一种人和人、人和环境互动的综合体。
4、假如你看到一套高档西装，价钱、款式、布料各方面都不错，你很满意。可是销售员跟你交谈时不尊重你，让你感觉很不舒服，你会购买吗？ 假如同一套衣服在菜市场屠户旁边的地摊上，你会购买吗？不会，因为你的感觉不对。
5、企业、产品、人、环境、语言、语调、肢体动作都会影响顾客的感觉。
6、在整个销售过程中能为顾客营造一个好的感觉，那么，你就找到了打开客户钱包“钥匙”。

四、买卖过程中卖的是什么？
答案：好处
好处就是能给对方带来什么快乐跟利益，能帮他减少或避免什么麻烦与痛苦。

1、客户永远不会因为产品本身而购买，客户买的是通过这个产品或服务能给他带来的好处。
2、二流的销售人员贩卖产品（成份），一流的销售人员卖结果（好处）。
3、对顾客来讲，顾客只有明白产品会给自己带来什么好处，避免什么麻烦才会购买。 所以，一流的销售人员不会把焦点放在自己能获得多少好处上，而是会放在客户会获得的好处上，
4、当顾客通过我们的产品或服务获得确实的利益时，顾客就会把钱放到我们的口袋里，而且，还要跟我们说:谢谢！

五、面对面销售过程中客户心中在思考什么？
答案：客户心中永恒不变的六大问句。
1、你是谁？
2、你要跟我谈什么？
3、你谈的事情对我有什么好处？
4、如何证明你讲的是事实？
5、为什么我要跟你买？
6、为什么我要现在跟你买？

这六大问题顾客不一定问出来，但他潜意识里会这样想。举个例子来说：顾客在看到你的一瞬间，他的感觉就是：这个人我没见过，他为什么微笑着向我走来？他的潜意识在想，这个人是谁？你走到他面前，张嘴说话的时候，他心里想你要跟我谈什么？当你说话时他心里在想，对我有什么处？假如对他没好处他就不想往下听了，因为每一个人的时间都是有限的，他会选择去做对他有好处的事。当他觉得你的产品确实对他有好处时，他又会想，你有没有骗我？如何证明你讲的是事实？

当你能证明好处确实是真的时，他心里就一定会想，这种产品确实很好，其他地方有没有更好的，或其他人卖得会不会更便宜，当你能给他足够资讯让他了解跟你买是最划算时，他心里一定会想，我可不可以明天再买，下个月再买？我明年买行不行？所以，你一定要给他足够的理由让他知道现在买的好处，现在不买的损失。 因此，在拜访你的客户之前，自己要把自己当客户，问这些问题，然后把这些问题回答一遍， 设计好答案，并给出足够的理由，客户会去购买他认为对自己最好最合适的。

六、如何与竞争对手做比较？

1、不贬低对手。

你去贬低对手，有可能客户与对手有某些渊源，如现在正使用对手的产品，他的朋友正在使用，或他认为对手的产品不错，你贬低就等于说他没眼光、正在犯错误，他就会立即反感。

千万不要随便贬低你的竞争对手，特别是对手的市场份额或销售不错时，因为对方如何真的做得不好，又如何能成为你的竞争对手呢？你不切实际地贬低竞争对手，只会让顾客觉得你不可信赖。 一说到对手就说别人不好，客户会认为你心虚或品质有问题。

2、拿自己的三大优势与对手三大弱点做客观地比较。

俗话说，货比三家，任何一种货品都有自身的优缺点，在做产品介绍时，你要举出已方的三大强项与对方的三大弱项比较，即使同档次的产品被你的客观地一比，高低就立即出现了。

3、强调独特卖点。

独特卖点就是只有我们有而竞争对手不具备的独特优势，正如每个人都有独特的个性一样，任何一种产品也会有自己的独特卖点，在介绍产品时突出并强调这些独特卖点的重要性，能为销售成功增加不少胜算。

七、服务虽然是在成交结束之后，但是它却关系着下次的成交和转介绍的成功，那么，怎么样才能让你的售后服务做得让客户满意呢？
答案：你的服务能让客户感动。

服务=关心。 关心就是服务。可能有人会说销售人员的关心是假的，有目的。如果他愿意有目的地关心你一辈子，你是不是愿意？

1、让客户感动的三种服务：

主动帮助客户拓展他的事业：没有人乐意被推销，同时也没有人拒绝别人帮助他拓展他的事业。

诚恳关心客户及其家人：没有人乐意被推销， 同时也很少有人拒绝别人关心他及他的家人。

做与产品无关的服务：如果你服务与你的产品 相关联，客户会认为那是应该的，如果你服务与你的产品无关，那他会认为你是真的关心他，比较容易让他感动，而感动客户是最有效的。

2、服务的三个层次：

份内的服务：你和你的公司应该做的，都做到了，客户认为你和你的公司还可以。

边缘的服务（可做可不做的服务） ：你也做了，客户认为你和你的公司很好。

与销售无关的服务：你都做到了，客户认为你和你的公司不但是商场中的合作伙伴，同时客户还把你当朋友。这样的人情关系竞争对手抢都抢不走，这是不是你想要的结果？

3、服务的重要信念：

我是一个提供服务的人，我提供服务的品质， 跟我生命品质、个人成就成正比。 假如你不好好的关心顾客、服务顾客、你的竞争对手乐意代劳。

第二篇:：电话行销

据统计８０％的营销公司８０％的推销员每天 用８０％的时间进行电话行销，但只有２０％ 的人才能达到电话高手。

流程图：预约→市场调查→找客户→服务老客户→目标要明确，我希望带给客户的感觉→我没空给客户的感觉→我的电话对客户的帮助→客户对我的电话有什么反对意见→我们要有解决与备用方案→我如何讲如何服务，客户会买我的单→转介绍。

一、打电话的准备。

1.情绪的准备（颠峰状态）
2.形象的准备（对镜子微笑）
3.声音的准备： （清晰/动听/标准）
4.工具的准备： （三色笔黑、蓝、红；14开笔记本/白纸/铅笔；传真件、便签纸、计算器）。 成功的销售，会从一点一滴的细节开始的，客户细节上去看我们的工作风格，简单的事情重复做，是成功销售的关键。

二、打电话的五个细节和要点：

1．用耳朵听，听细节；用嘴巴讲，沟通与重复；用手记，记重点（记录来电时间和日期内容）。
2．集中时间打电话，同类电话同类时间打，重要电话约定时间打，沟通电话不要超过8分钟。
3．站起来打电话，站着就是一种说服力。配合肢体动作参与，潜意识学习。
4．做好聆听：全神贯注当前的电话（了解反馈建议及抱怨）。
5．不要打断顾客的话，真诚热情积极的回应对方。

三、电话行销的三大原则：大声、兴奋、坚持不懈。

四、行销的核心理念：

爱上自己，爱上公司，爱上产品

1．每一通来电都是有钱的来电。
2．电话是我们公司的公关形象代言人。
3．想打好电话首先要有强烈的自信心。
4．打好电话先要赞美顾客，电话沟通是自己的一面镜子。
5．电话行销是一种信心的传递，情绪的转移，是否可以感染到对方。
6．电话行销是一种心理学的游戏，声音清晰，亲切，见解，根据对方频率适中。
7．没有人会拒绝我，所谓的拒绝只是他不够了解，或是我打电话的时间或态度可以更好。
8．听电话的对方是我的朋友，因为我帮助他成长，帮他的企业盈利，所以我打电话给他。
9．广告的品质，取决业务电话接听沟通的品质，所有接听电话的价值与打电话的价值是十比一。
10.介绍产品，塑造产品价值：用数据、人物、时间、讲故事、很感性表达出来，证明产品的价值。

五、电话中建立亲和力的八种方法：

1.赞美法则。
2.语言文字同步。
3.重复顾客讲的。
4.使用顾客的口头禅话。
5.情绪同步、信念同步：合一架构发:我同意您的意见，把所有的“但是”转为“同时”。
6.语调语速同步：根据视觉型，听觉型，感觉型使用对方表象系统沟通。
7.生理状态同步(呼吸，表情，姿势，动作---镜面反应)
8.幽默。

六、预约电话：

1、对客户有好处。
2、明确时间地点。
3、有什么人参加。
4、不要谈细节。

七、用六个问题来设计我们的话术：

1.我是谁？
2.我要跟客户谈什么？
3.我谈的事情对客户有什么好处
4.拿什么来证明我谈的是真实的、正确的？
5.顾客为什么要买单？
6.顾客为什么要现在买单？

八、行销中专业用语说习惯用语：

习惯用语：你的名字叫什么？
专业表达：请问，我可以知道您的名字吗？

习惯用语：你的问题确实严重。
专业用语：我这次比上次的情况好。

习惯用语：问题是那个产品都卖完了。
专业表达：由于需求很高，我们暂时没货了。

习惯用语：你没必要担心这次修后又坏 。
专业表达：你这次修后尽管放心使用。

习惯用语：你错了，不是那样的！
专业表达：对不起我没说清楚，但我想它运转的方式有些不同。

习惯用语：注意，你必须今天做好！
专业表达：如果您今天能完成，我会非常感激。

习惯用语：你没有弄明白，这次就听好了。
专业表达：也许我说的不够清楚，请允许我再解释一遍。

习惯用语：我不想再让您重蹈覆辙。
专业表达：我这次有信心，这个问题不会再发生。

第三篇：服务营销

服务三阶段：售前，售中，售后。
售前服务>售 后服务服务的四级：基本服务，渴望服务，物超所值，不可替代的服务。

服务的目的：让陌生人成为朋友；从一次性消费成为持续性消费和更多的消费。
服务的定义：随时注意身边所有人的需求和渴望，迅速达到所有人的需求和渴望。

一、顾客是什么？

1.顾客是我们企业的生命所在
2.顾客是创造财富的源泉
3.企业生存的基础
4.衣食行住的保障

二、服务的重要性：

1.服务使企业价值增加
2.优质服务具有经济的意义
3.市场竞争的加剧（微利时代，高品质服务决定顾客的导向）

三、服务的信念

服务就是销售，销售就是服务；服务是手段， 销售是目的:

a．假如你不好好的关心顾客、服务顾客，你的竞争对手乐意代劳

b．我是一个提供服务的人，我提供服务品质，跟我生命品质、个人成就成正比

c．我今天的收获是我过去的结果，假如我想增加明天的收入，就要增加今天的付出

d．维护老客房的时间是开发新客户的1/6，顾客因为需要才了解，因为服务在决定

e．没有服务不了的客户，只有不会服务的人。 《功心为上》

f．所有行业都是服务和人际关系

四、用心服务让客户感动的三种方法：

1．主动帮助客户拓展他的业务：同时也没有人会拒绝别人帮助他拓展他的业务事业。

2．做与产品无关的服务：把常规性客户变成忠诚客户，变成朋友，终身朋友（感动的服务）。

3．诚恳地关心顾客及顾客的家人：（因为没有人会拒绝关心）同时把客户变成我们的事业伙伴。

五、销售跟单短信服务法则：

1．善用工具（手机、商务电话、公司建立电脑短信平台…）。
2．群发、分类发送、重要短信亲自编送、转发短信要改写。
3．要因时因地因人、有针对性的发、特殊日子提前一天发。
4．用心：个性化、生动化、差异化、让客户一次性就记住你。
5．感性的写、理性的发，新朋友24小时内发信息。
6．备用短信：
a．成长激励20条；
b．祝福祈祷20条；
c．客服售后10条 （对公司比较有价值意义）。

六、服务的五大好处：

1．增加客户的满意度。
2．增加客户的回头率。
3．更多地了解客户过去的需求，现在的需求。
4．人际关系由量转变为质变。
5．拥有更多商机。

七、抗拒点解除的七大步骤：

1．是否是决策者。
2．耐心倾听完抗拒点。
3．先认同客户的抗拒点。
4．辨别真假抗拒点。
5．锁定客户抗拒点。
6．得到客户的承若。
7．解除客户抗拒点。

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# posted by TopTrader @ Friday, May 02, 2014 0 comments

11 April 2014

 

历史统计证明100%成功率的投资方法

怎样找到最佳的投资方法？这大概是每一位投资者最想问的问题。可惜，这也是这个世界最难回答的问题。随便进哪家书店，你都能随便找到几十种讲投资的书，而且不同的书之间的观点往往还大相径庭。同样，去年还各大媒体追捧的 “投资神人”，今年就可能已经破产入狱。

我现在投资的目的主要是保障在不工作的情况下也可以有舒适的生活。我总是假定未来已经没有薪水收入来弥补投资亏损。因此，我的投资也越来越保守，对那些主要靠搏概率来取胜的冒险方法都一律退避三舍。

如果你和我一样，投资主要的目的是在低风险的前提下获取稳定的回报，而不是追逐暴利，那我向你推荐以下这三条禁得住历史考验，几乎有100%成功概率的投资方法：

1. 着眼于长期回报

市场每天都在波动，除了神仙，谁也不可能准确预测明天的涨跌。因此，无论你是买股票，买房，还是投资债券，你总是可能会买在高点或者买在腰上。但是，尽管短期内有波动，但长期来看，总是向上增长的。根据统计，在发达国家的股票历史上，还没有出现过股票指数下跌后，经过10年还没有反弹到下跌前水平的情况。同样，房地产每年涨涨跌跌，但也几乎是平均8年左右就铁定价格翻倍。

S&P 500有记录以来平均长期年回报为9.8%, 道指的平均年回报率为9.6%。 也就是说，历史证明，只要你的投资回报能达到股市的平均水平并且你有能力坚持10年以上，你就有几乎100% 的概率能够战胜市场波动，获取近10%的年收益。相对于每年3%左右的平均通货膨胀，这个回报率对大多数投资者来讲还算是不错吧。

因此，为规避风险，我们应该着眼于10年以上的投资期限。在决定投资前，必须审视自己的现金流，保证自己有足够的能力，不会在短期之内就因为财务状况的变化而被迫变现。

2. 把买股票当作买生意

巴菲特常说，买股票就像买农场。他选股的时候，总是假设自己要买一项生意，例如农场，来自己经营。他关心的是企业的盈利能力，现金水平，未来顾客需求变化等等，而不是现在股市的高低，市场分析师对股市的判断等等。巴菲特评估企业的内在价值来判断是否应该投资，而基本上忽略当前股市技术指标。

这值得我们学习。说到底，对一个长期投资者来说，一只股票的价格，最终是由股票背后所代表的企业的盈利能力决定的。我们买股票时，不要被股评、技术指标、趋势等等迷惑，而是要着重于了解该企业从事的业务，分析企业的价值。我们应该问自己，如果我是该企业的业主，我现在对企业的未来是否有信心。

像我一样的普通投资者，做不到巴菲特那种层次的企业价值分析。但我们至少可以做到一点：不投资于自己不了解的行业。

3. 制定自己的纪律

是人就会有感情，有感情就会有贪婪和恐惧的时候，这绝对可以理解。但是，如果我们任由贪婪和恐惧左右自己，就会在眼红别人赚钱的贪念下追涨，或者在股市下跌时盲目抛售。

为避免贪婪和恐惧主宰我们的投资行为，很重要的一点就是坚持以企业价值为核心的原则，制定自己的入市或者抛售的纪律。例如，不少投资者在建仓时都遇到这样的情况，自己喜欢一只股票，但嫌现在的价格太高，希望跌一点再买。但该股票真跌的时候，又害怕明天会再跌，所以没买。再过两天，股价又涨回去了，最终还是没买成。为避免这种情况，一个方法就是在研究完股票价值之后，制定自己的购买价格和数量，把这当作一项纪律来执行，只要价格达到了就买，不要犹豫。

我们执行自己的纪律就像是自己开交易所，自己下单一样：只要达到了下单的价位，就一定要买卖成交。如果没有达到，任凭市场变化也自巍然不动。

以上三点，是我个人的体会。但是，每个人的具体情况不一样，尤其是承担亏损风险的能力不一样，应该根据自己的财务状况总结出最适合自己的投资方法。如果你的主要投资目的是为退休做准备的话，欢迎经常访问我们的网站 早退休| zaotuixiu.com，大家多多交流。

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# posted by TopTrader @ Friday, April 11, 2014 0 comments

26 February 2014

 

牛刀：一线城市房价要跌去80%

一线城市房价为何要跌去80%

在全球只有我一个人完全准确的预测出：2014年2月5日，国际资本将会围剿人民币。正是在这一天开始，人民币出现持续大跌。这件事情让我感到深深的恐惧，绝非得意。在写作《中国通胀世界通缩》这本书时，我就曾在这本书的序中告诫读者：中国源于汇率断层的价格体系终有一天会被国际资本冲垮。现在这一天终于来到了。

人民币对内大幅贬值而对外却大幅升值，这种模式在上个世纪日本，拉美都出现过，无一不导致泡沫和泡沫的破灭，阿根廷泡沫破灭后，满街都是在哭泣的人，房子在不到半年的时候缩水80%；日本东京的公寓被誉为前景还有15年的房子从5亿日元跌倒1亿日元还无法脱手，到现在为止还在1亿日元那个价位。而中国不仅仅只是源于汇率断层的价格体系会被国际资本冲垮，而且政府的“进口加税出口退税”这种在全球独一无二的莫名其妙的征税模式，也将从此开始告别，因为这种模式完全是在鼓励最落后的生产力和资本套利。

在上海新浪华东地产频道任总经理的时候，佘山一个号称上海第一个超亿元的别墅请我去参观考察，兴之所至，我当然没有推辞。一到现场，全部考察完毕，我当时就笑了。你这个别墅放在纽约只值300万美元，放在西雅图华盛顿湖边只值200万美元，华盛顿湖边是西雅图的富人区，全球最富的人也只住500万到800万美元的别墅，上千万级美元的别墅少之又少，你这个别墅买一亿有人买吗？。他说有，而且有两个人订。

中国人是疯啦。这种疯狂在2009年央行印钞和美联储的QE后达到极致。开发商在唱涨，媒体在唱涨，政府在疯狂卖地，他们可曾会知道终有一天，在汇率模型发生变动的时候，人民币将会一泻千里？不过全中国财经评论人当中，只有我一人看出来这其中的奥妙，泡沫越大后果越大，因为泡沫越大所需货币就会越多，对美元贬值就越大。目前来说，继续沿用我在《货币狼烟》中涉及的模型，人民币最终将会跌倒20元。具体过程是：

第一、起步阶段：美元是缩减QE，引发美元集中出逃长三角珠三角和北京，现在人民币依然在狂跌，很顺利的跌倒6.0919，6.09 这个价位横盘了很久，有非常的动力存在，这个价位在房价泡沫破灭的第一阶段的时候是第一个价位，因为房价泡沫破灭一定伴随着货币的大跌。这个价位突破后的第二个价位是6.30。6.30突破后的第三个价位是6.80，这个时候，一线城市房价将会狂跌。

第二、攻击阶段：美元是退出QE，引发对冲基金发起对中国的做空行动，操盘团队可能不仅仅只是巴菲特团队，索罗斯最近也在虎视眈眈，这会影响到全球对冲基金和量子基金，鲁比尼可能不会干这个。首先攻击的一定是汇率，如果成功，这个时候人民币汇率会在6.8元之后再继续下跌倒8.6元至12.6元之间，一线城市房价全面见底，中国城市地价开始回归。现在的城市地价完全是炒作起来的，不是中国城市应有的地价。

第三、清算阶段：美元是加息，究竟是加一次还是几次根本不清楚，视中国的真正的GDP是多少才能定。中国GDP除了泡沫以外，很多是无用的，也有很多虚假的，更有出口数据一直在造假，这是全球都知道的事，在这个阶段将会现形。那个时候，中国可能不再是什么第二大经济体，可能连第五都成为问题。至于汇率到什么程度，请看我的书《货币狼烟》，20元吧。至此，中国货币泡沫破灭。

而所有达到极致的资产价格最后终将会跌回原位，这是很多发展中国家的宿命。中国完全依赖货币的不断超发拉动的经济增长已经到头了。这个过程结束后，中国经济的本质就展示出来，一线城市房价将会跌去80%，这几乎是毫无疑问的。

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# posted by TopTrader @ Wednesday, February 26, 2014 0 comments

25 February 2014

 

彼得.林奇的25条黄金规则

彼得.林奇是个投资奇才，作为一个著名的基金管理人，他的思维更现代、投资技巧更新颖复杂，但我们从以下投资规则中能够看出，在骨子里他依然是与格雷厄姆、巴菲特一脉相承的基本面分析派：

1.投资是令人激动和愉快的事，但如果不作准备，投资也是一件危险的事情。

2.投资法宝不是得自华尔街投资专家，它是你已经拥有的。你可以利用自己的经验，投资于你已经熟悉的行业或企业，你能够战胜专家。

3.过去30年中，股票市场由职业炒家主宰，与公众的观点相反，这个现象使业余投资者更容易获胜，你可以不理会职业炒家而战胜市场。

4.每支股票背后都是一家公司，去了解这家公司在干什么。

5.通常，在几个月甚至几年内公司业绩与股票价格无关。但长期而言，两者之间100%相关。这个差别是赚钱的关键，要耐心并持有好股票。

6.你必须知道你买的是什么以及为什么要买它，“这孩子肯定能长大成人”之类的话不可靠。

7.远射几乎总是脱靶。

8.持有股票就像养育孩子，不要超出力所能及的范围。业余选段人大概有时间追踪8～12家公司。不要同时拥有5种以上的股票。

9.如果你找不到一支有吸引力的股票，就把钱存进银行。

10.永远不要投资于你不了解其财务状况的公司。买股票最大的损失来自于那些财务状况不佳的公司。仔细研究公司的财务报表，确认公司不会破产。

11.避开热门行业的热门股票。最好的公司也会有不景气的时候，增长停滞的行业里有大赢家。

12.对于小公司，最好等到它们有利润之后再投资。

13.如果你想投资麻烦丛生的行业，就买有生存能力的公司，并且要等到这个行业出现复苏的信号时再买进。

14.如果你用1000元钱买股票，最大的损失就是1000元。但是如果你有足够的耐心，你可以获得1000元甚至5000元的收益。个人投资者可以集中投资几家绩优企业，而基金经理却必须分散投资。持股太多会失去集中的优势，持有几个大赢家终生受益。

15.在每个行业和每个地区，注意观察的业余投资者都能在职业炒家之前发现有巨大增长潜力的企业。

16.股市的下跌如科罗拉多州1月份的暴风雪一样是正常现象，如果你有所准备，它就不会伤害你。每次下跌都是大好机会，你可以挑选被风暴吓走的投资者放弃的廉价股票。

17.每个人都有足够的智力在股市赚钱，但不是每个人都有必要的耐力。如果你每遇到恐慌就想抛掉存货，你就应避开股市或股票基金。

18.总有一些事情需要操心。不要理会周末的焦虑和媒介最新的恐慌性言论。卖掉股票是因为公司的基本情况恶化，而不是因为天要塌下来。

19.没有人能够预测利率、经济形势及股票市场的走向，不要去搞这些预测。集中精力了解你所投资的公司情况。

20.分析卅家公司，你会发现1家基本情况超过预期;分析刘家，就能发现5家。在股票市场总能找到意外的惊喜——公司成就被华尔街低估的股票。

21.如果不研究任何公司，你在股市成功的机会，就如同打牌赌博时，不看自己的牌而打赢的机会一样。

22.当你持有好公司股票时，时间站在你这一边，你要有耐心——即使你在头5年中错过了沃尔玛特股票，但在下一个5年它仍是大赢家。

23.如果你有足够的耐性，但却既没有时间也没有能力与精力去自己搞研究，那就投资共同基金吧。这时，投资分散化是个好主意，你该持有几种不同的基金：增长型、价值型、小企业型、大企业型，等等。投资6家同类共同基金不是分散化。

24.在全球主要股票市场中，美国股市过去10年的总回报排名第八。通过海外基金，把一部分投资分散到海外，可以分享其他国家经济快速增长的好处。

25.长期而言，一个经过挑选的股票投资组合总是胜过债券或货币市场账户，而一个很差的股票投资组合还不如把钱放在坐垫下。

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# posted by TopTrader @ Tuesday, February 25, 2014 0 comments

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