JUNE SWOON

 In about a week, the Cubs went from first to 6 GB the Brewers.

It came after a historic combined no-hitter in LA.

It ended with a near historic blowing a 7 run first inning lead to get beaten 15-7 by the Brewers.

The excuses come easy to the optimists: the Cubs have had a rash of injuries (so have other clubs); the West Coast road trip took them out of their game (teams travel all the time); the pitchers are just coming back to their mean.

But angry fans on the sports radio shows complain that a series of unheard of minor league journeymen (below replacement player talent) shows that ownership is tanking the season. Tanking, so Jed Hoyer can sell off all the pending free agents to start a complete tear-down rebuild.

It is not surprising that the Cubs have fallen into a cesspool of mistrust.  The Yu Darvish trade for basically nothing was clearly a salary dump. The irony is that the Cubs desperately needed a quality starter to be competitive in the winnable NL Central. Any hope of acquiring one at the trade deadline is zero.

It is also not surprising considering the Cubs failed to sign any player extensions in the off-season. Kyle Schwarber was let go (to go on to have a career year with the Nationals). Bryant, Baez and Rizzo have all sat on the contract sidelines, with Rizzo being insulted by the Cubs last offer.

It is not surprising considering Tom Ricketts complained loudly about the 2020 "biblical losses" sustained by the team (but most believe the red-ink blood bath was the real estate development losses).

The team has not developed a quality starter under the Epstein-Hoyer regime. Only one home grown prospect, Alzolay, has made more than one start - - - and is clearly a 5th starter at best. The pitching staff has been a patch work of other team cast offs or free agents, for good or ill. It is clear Jake Arrieta's tank is pretty empty.

The June Swoon gives management the argument that the season is lost . . . so a fire sale is in the best interests of the club. If the team does not trade its pending free agents, the current CBA allows for a Round 1A compensation pick. But no one knows what the new CBA will look like (which will freeze the free agent market this off-season).

THE SLIDE

But for the grace of the baseball gods, go thee Cub fans when one looks at the White Sox tailspin.

The jump the season moment was probably when manager Robin Ventura had his best consistent hitter, Melky Cabrera, bunt with two runners on in a scoreless game. Moving the runners up one base for Todd Frazier would be fine but Frazier, like the rest of the Sox, have been struggling at the plate. In the post game, Frazier took the bullet saying it was up to him to drive in the runners.

It is Ventura that continues to have a large target on his back.  He got a great vote of confidence from his players after the Adam LaRouche nonsense. But the team has underperformed badly in the last two seasons.

The White Sox got off to a great start with excellent starting pitching. But in the span of a week, the White Sox went from first in the AL Central to third. Jose Quintana pitched extremely well but the Mets sent the White Sox to their seventh straight loss with a 1-0 defeat.  Quintana lost for the fifth time in 10 decisions despite limiting New York to a run and six hits in seven innings. Quintana has a 2.13 ERA but is a .500 pitcher. Previously, the White Sox season was crushed when the Royals came back from a 7-1 deficit in the 9th inning humble the South Siders. The White Sox have lost 15 of 19 and are now only sit two games above .500.And the "bad" losses continue to pile up.

The offense has been the key to the slide. It has been feast or famine at the plate. The Sox seem to only look for the long ball to score runs. They don't seem to have the plate discipline to take walks or drive the ball to the opposite field to sustain long innings. In 52 games, the Sox have scored 4 runs/game and pitching has given up 3.69 runs/game. The best batting average is .284 by Adam Eaton.

As some commentators mentioned, the team needs a "spark" to stop this losing streak. But this is a veteran ball club that should be able to make their own sparks. Management continues to be in "win now" mode (with rumors that the team is interested in trading for Padres expensive starter James Shields) but does the roster really have the talent to win now? Or are the Sox "wasting" the prime years of Chris Sale?

The Sox really don't need pitching help. It needs one or two bats in the middle of line up. Tim Anderson, the #1 prospect, has not lit up AAA this year. He is the shortstop of the future. But the window of winning is now. The team could use a left handed power hitter to play a corner outfield spot. But most teams are not thinking trade at the end of May.

Some preseason writers think this is the true Sox team: a .500 scuffling club. But the rare quick start had raised expectations for Sox fans. The next two weeks will be critical for the Sox long term success.

28

CHICAGO (AP) -- The mob arrived as soon as Salvador Perez squeezed that final foul popup, officially bringing Kansas City's playoff drought to an end.

Yes, the Royals are going back to the postseason.

Kansas City clinched a playoff spot Friday night for the first time in 29 years, beating the Chicago White Sox  3-1 behind seven scoreless innings from Jeremy Guthrie.

Kansas City secured at least a wild card and ended the longest active postseason drought among the major North American sports leagues. The last time the Royals made it to the playoffs, George Brett led Kansas City to a World Series victory over St. Louis in 1985.

''It feels better than expected,'' said Billy Butler, a 2004 draft pick and eight-year veteran. ''It's a great thing. I'm proud to bring this organization something they envisioned when they drafted me.''

>>>>  It took the Royals 28 years to get back to the post season, even though:

A. They continually drafted high each year in the amateur drafts.

B. They had a consistently good farm system of prospects.

C. They promoted their valued home grown prospects on a regular basis.

As a small market team, the Royals did not have the financial standing to compete on the major free agent market. Therefore, the team had to rely on its scouting and development departments in order to build a winning organization. This is the classic small market approach.

Which is exactly the approach the Cubs have been using the past four years. The emphasis on home grown talent (which is cheaper and under 6 years of cost control) is a noble quest, but it does not mean instant or continuous success. The Royals are the perfect example; it took almost three decades to achieve the minimum goal of each spring training - - - to make the playoffs. 

So when the Cub media cheerleaders are jumping up and down this winter, saying that the Cubs are going to be in the wild card hunt, don't believe them. Remember the Royals journey to success. 

  

THE LOSS

When the White Sox gave up five (5) unearned runs in the 5-2 loss to the Dodgers, pitcher Carlos Quintana got nailed with the loss.

But clearly, Quintana was the cause for the team loss. He made pitches that were hit to his fielders, who made the actual errors, putting runners in scoring position and eventually scoring.

Like quarterbacks and presidents who get too much credit when things are going well, pitchers get too much blame when things go wrong.

The debate about the value of the "win" statistic for pitchers is as apt for the value of the "loss" statistic for pitchers. There is more than one variable involved in the decision on who wins a game. Jeff Samardzija has pitched well enough to win 10 games like Mark Buerhle, but the Shark got no run support from the Cubs. but Samardzija is tagged with losses in those games.

One can weakly argue that a pitcher could be perfect and shut out the opponent to avoid the loss. But that is nearly impossible task as baseball has tweaked its rules to increase the amount of offense.

A better argument is that the win-loss statistic should be purely a "team stat." A pitcher should be primarily judged on his ERA, WHIP and IP. Except, historically, pitchers did throw complete games (there was only a 2 or 3 man rotation and no specialized bullpens) so a hurler's W-L record did accurately reflect his performance.

But a starter in order to qualify for a win must throw 5 innings; but can get tagged with a loss by not getting out of the first. A relief pitcher can get one out and get the win or the loss. There was once a proposal to allow the official scorer to give the "win" to the best pitcher on the winning team and the "loss" to the worst pitcher on the losing team. But that brought opinion into objective baseball statistics so the proposal was quickly dropped.

What came as a pitching stat change was the "save," a statistic that illogically values the final three outs more importantly than the first three outs of a game. It gave washed up starters the opportunity to become millionaire closers. A game can be won or lost in any inning, not just the 9th.

If a win is a nebulous pitching performance statistic, then the save is probably more over rated than a win. In fact, a closer can have a "blown save" then get the win if his  team comes back to break the tie and win the game.  In essence, the winning closer is rewarded for his bad performance.

The win and loss statistics for pitchers are not complete measurement of a player's performance. However, the historical basis for the W-L record of pitchers is still used as a means of comparing pitchers today and pitchers from yesterday. No one today can fathom Cy Young's 511 pitching victories. Most pundits believe we may never see another 300 game winner in the majors (average 15 wins over 15 seasons).

GULF STAT

During last night's telecast, Len Kasper made the observation that when the Cubs have won this year, their run total averages to 7.26. When the Cubs have lost this year, the run total averages only 2.21.

A five run differential between wins and losses means that the Cubs competitive imbalance is widening. To put it another way, a pitcher today is recognized with a "quality start" if he pitches 6 innings and gives up 3 runs.  I think that definition is too high because that means the pitcher has a 4.50 ERA.  A better stat would be 2 runs over 6 innings (3.00 ERA), or 3 runs over 7 innings (3.86 ERA).

When the Cubs win, the offense produces 42 percent more scoring than a 3.00 ERA quality start.

When the Cubs lose, the offense produces 26 percent less scoring than a 3.00 ERA quality start.

That is a consistency range of plus/minus 68 percent. Or, the gulf between the "feast or famine" play of the Cubs roster.

One would hope that a professional team would have some sort of zen balance to hitting and scoring runs. One would think that a consistent and competitive team would have a plus or minus of a couple of runs per victory or loss. The Cubs appear to have doubled that anticipated run spread.

There is no such thing as finite number of hits in a player's swing. When a player gets three hits one game, he can get three hits the next game. Perhaps, a hot hitter is overconfident and tries to make single contact into home runs (a formula for failure). Or, MLB advanced scouting is so good now that pitching reports on how to get out hitters is communicated in real time. It is hard to watch a player hit like Babe Ruth in game one of a series, then look like a hapless T-baller in game two.  Now, managers will tell you that over the long season, a player will always revert to "the back of his baseball card." But hitting gurus like Charlie Lau preached that if one has a consistent swing mechanics (he believed in a flat plane approach that Frank Thomas adopted successfully for his Hall of Fame career), the player will have consistent results.

If you look at the Cub hitters, there is no consistent hitting philosophy on display. You have a lot of free swingers like Castro and Lake, a couple of crouch guys like Schierholtz and a couple of tall, quiet hitters like Rizzo. All those types have different swing planes and different strike zone coverages as a result. Even though the front office has preached teaching "the Cubs Way," it certainly has not been taught or adopted at the major league level.

BAD MILESTONE

The Cubs passed another dubious milestone.

The franchise has lost its 10,000th game.

It becomes the third franchise to pass that losing mark (the Phillies and Braves are the other two clubs).

With its 44 Hall of Famers, the Cubs surprisingly still hold a franchise winning percentage of .511. But we all know, the Cubs have not won it all in more than a century.

The Cubs have settled in to .333 baseball. That is about replacement player level (AAA). That is also not surprising due to the make-up of the squad and the multiple platooning being done by manager Renteria.

The Cubs have been digging themselves quite the large hole trying to find "bottom." The hole was a means of obtaining high draft picks in order to re-stock the farm system. In construction, you need to dig deep holes to have a sturdy foundation.

But how interesting is it to watch someone dig a hole?  Perhaps it is slightly more interesting than watching paint dry.

The Cubs are on pace to lose 108 games, or in a parlance of the day, be "Astro bad."

It is not an honorable honor.

But I think this Deep Dig Project may have more lasting effects. The team is so bad for so long it will affect future free agents from signing with the Cubs. The team's constant losing will wear on veteran players who will want to get out of town like Matt Garza. The team's constant losing becomes the culture of the clubhouse and will affect young players who may never learn how to win. They may get lulled into becoming the next generation of lovable losers. Except, this time the love is not showing up to the ball park. There are die hard fan sites contemplating doing dark because the Cubs are unwatchable, and the "prospect watch" stories are now merely collective white noise.

It is not the loss milestone that is the headline here; it is the sinking ship on Lake Michigan that may not be salvageable when the prospects row out into the choppy waters.