DUBIOUS ACCOMPLISHMENT

 The Cubs ended 2021 with many records. Bad records. 

The Cubs used a record 69 different players. Forty-four (44) players made their ML debut with the Cubs, ten more than the previous team record set in 2013. The Cubs also used a record 9 catchers in one season.

A host of scrambled letters went through the club house turn style: Tyler Payne, Joe Biagini, Erik Castillo, Trent Giambrone and Tyler Ladendorf made their footnotes in Cub history. None made a lasting impact or really part of any future plans.

It was an all-out fire drill sending rookie fire fighters after the forest had been burnt to the ground. 

Of the Cubs Top 30 prospects, OF Brennan Davis and LHP Brailyn Marquez will be rushed into 2022 duty. If Willson Contreras is traded then C Miquel Amaya will take his place with a long learning curve ahead of him. The rest of the Top 10 have call up years in 2023 and beyond.

The Cubs will have the 7th pick in the next Draft. If the pattern holds, Hoyer will pick the best college bat available in hopes of moving the selection through the minors quickly. But the Cubs drafting record is more dubious than their team's collapse and fire sale.

Expect 2020 to be the journeymen tour of major and minor league career AAAA players getting a cup of coffee on the Cubs roster. Expect another 90 plus loss season.

UNWATCHABLE

 The summer of 2021 was the season of the unwatchable Cubs.

A bad team made of mostly old, journeyman AAA players. There has been no indication that will change in the off-season. David Ross, when asked about his 2022 starting rotation, could only say Hendricks and Mills.

Another indictment of the Cubs farm system for not developing one solid starter during the Theo era. But the problem is that Hendricks has been pitching like a #3 and Mills a #5 starter. An ace #1 starter is a pitcher who can give you a complete game. A #2 pitcher gets you into the 8th on a regular basis. A #3 starter gets you 7 innings; #4 6 innings and #5 through five. But Cub starters are barely reaching five innings pitched on a consistent basis. The young arms of Alzolay, Thompson and Steele seem like middle relievers at best (as Steve Stone said "all relievers are failed starters.")

The 2021 Cubs tried to sell nostalgia to the fans with the return of Arrieta but that was a bust from the get-go. The "lovable losers" train no longer runs after the Cubs won the championship. Fans expected more from their team for the prices they are currently paying. 

Are the Cubs going to spend big money for two free agent starters when they let Darvish go for next to nothing?

A closer by committee does solidify a modern pitching staff. Except for Heuer in the Sox trade, the rest of the arms are pretty much replacement level. The bullpen will be blown up again to be filled with new journeymen arms.

2022 is the last year of Ross' contract. I wonder if he will extend himself to shepherd a low budget rebuild. Or will he chance it that Theo will take a job with the imploding Mets franchise? 

You can tell how screwed up the franchise is when you cannot even tell who are the daily TV and radio broadcasters. The revolving door of people in the booth is symbolic of the turn style of marginal talent on the field.

BACK UP THE MOVING VAN

 The Cubs 11 game losing streak has changed the team's view of the playoffs and off-season programs.

The remaining core and recent additions are pending free agents: Bryant, Baez, Rizzo, Pedersen. Kimbrel and Contreras have one more year of potential control. 

With the CBA expiring at the end of the season, there is great uncertainty on what will happen to the free agent market and whether the FA compensation rules will change. Currenty, only those who turn down the one-year qualifying offer from their clubs will have compensation attached to them. Those offers must be made by the club within the first five full days after the World Series ends, and players then have 10 days to accept or decline the offer, during which time they can negotiate with other teams

Under the current rules, if the team that loses the free agent is a revenue-sharing recipient, based on its revenues and market size, then the selection -- if and only if the lost player signs for at least $50 million -- will be awarded a pick between the first round and Competitive Balance Round A of the 2019 MLB Draft. If the player signs for less than $50 million, the compensation pick for those teams would come after Competitive Balance Round B, which follows the second round.

The following 16 teams currently qualify for these picks: A's, Braves, Brewers, D-backs, Indians, Mariners, Marlins, Orioles, Padres, Pirates, Rays, Reds, Rockies, Royals, Tigers and Twins.

If the team that loses the player does not receive revenue sharing and did not exceed the luxury-tax salary threshold the previous season, its compensatory pick will come after Competitive Balance Round B. The value of the player's contract doesn't matter in this case. The 12 clubs that fall into this category are the Angels, Astros, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, Mets, Phillies, Rangers, White Sox and Yankees.

The Cubs have several options with their pending free agents:

1. Keep them through the season. Let the core group have a final swan song together. Then let me go on their merry way.

2. Keep them through the season. Then offer them a qualifying offer (last year was $17.6 million) or even arbitration. If the player rejects the QO, then potential draft compensation may attach. If rejects arbitration, then no draft comp.

3. Try to negotiate an extension with the players. We have only heard crickets this season on any extension talk. With Ricketts claiming poverty and Hoyer trading his best starter in a clear salary dump, ownership has not signaled any willingness to commit large dollars to their old players.

4. Think about trades. If you think your scouting department can pick gems in compensatory rounds (picks from 48 to 100), then waiting to draft someone could be more valuable than trading a rental player for a low minor league prospect. Trading partners this year are highly unlikely to part with any of their Top 15-20 prospects for a two month rental player. Only if two or more teams fight over player will the value rise. 

5. Have a fire sale. Try to squeeze as much value as you can from your current roster. Everybody has a chance to get on the moving van. Trade deadline contenders usually want closers, starters and specialty hitters/defenders to fill in bench role. Kimbrel probably has the most trade value because he has had a solid year. Contreras is probably the second most valuable trade chip. He has one more year of control and is a top NL catcher. A team like the White Sox could use him now. Hendricks has already signed a team friendly extension so I doubt he will be moved but he has as much value as Contreras. Bryant is purely a rental who will hit the FA market. His up and down little injuries year does not help. Unless a contender loses a middle of the line up bat, market interest may be thin for KB. Baez has less market value than Bryant. He is too inconsistent at the plate and lately in the field (14 errors). He has the personality and PR appeal that could help some clubs sell tickets but not at a great trade cost. Pedersen fits into the Schwarber mode (DH more than OF) which limits thinking to AL teams. 

6. Let them test the free agent market, then negotiate a new deal in the wild. It is possible to try to reel back in one of your players. The Cubs did it with pitcher Hamel. But it is rare. And the Cubs would have to dramatically change its small market mind set. Also, free agents want a chance to win now and it is clear the Cubs do not have the organizational depth to field a championship caliber contender in the next few years.

If the Cubs stumble into the All Star break, the fire sale is the most likely option. But look at the Darvish trade as the bitter cough medicine fans will have to swallow. The Cubs received nothing of value in return and only one marginal major leaguer (Davies). At the trade deadline, I would expect only Class A ball players in return for any one except maybe Kimbrel or Contreras. But even then, most teams would rather see how the new CBA financial terms will be set before parting with any of their controllable (i.e. cheap) minor league players. Teams have learned their is more value in developing and promoting their draft choices to keep them for 7 years than trading away good prospects for an illusory chance at the pennant or World Series.

If I were to guess on who will be traded I think Kimbrel, Baez and Bryant are the candidates. I think the team will keep Rizzo to the end of the year because he is still the face of their franchise and the Cub house leader. I think the strong push to eliminate the 2016 team is apparent as the championship has been an actual anchor drag on the team as the players generally did not improve and scouting and operations departments failed to draft and develop their replacements.

JUNE SWOON

 In about a week, the Cubs went from first to 6 GB the Brewers.

It came after a historic combined no-hitter in LA.

It ended with a near historic blowing a 7 run first inning lead to get beaten 15-7 by the Brewers.

The excuses come easy to the optimists: the Cubs have had a rash of injuries (so have other clubs); the West Coast road trip took them out of their game (teams travel all the time); the pitchers are just coming back to their mean.

But angry fans on the sports radio shows complain that a series of unheard of minor league journeymen (below replacement player talent) shows that ownership is tanking the season. Tanking, so Jed Hoyer can sell off all the pending free agents to start a complete tear-down rebuild.

It is not surprising that the Cubs have fallen into a cesspool of mistrust.  The Yu Darvish trade for basically nothing was clearly a salary dump. The irony is that the Cubs desperately needed a quality starter to be competitive in the winnable NL Central. Any hope of acquiring one at the trade deadline is zero.

It is also not surprising considering the Cubs failed to sign any player extensions in the off-season. Kyle Schwarber was let go (to go on to have a career year with the Nationals). Bryant, Baez and Rizzo have all sat on the contract sidelines, with Rizzo being insulted by the Cubs last offer.

It is not surprising considering Tom Ricketts complained loudly about the 2020 "biblical losses" sustained by the team (but most believe the red-ink blood bath was the real estate development losses).

The team has not developed a quality starter under the Epstein-Hoyer regime. Only one home grown prospect, Alzolay, has made more than one start - - - and is clearly a 5th starter at best. The pitching staff has been a patch work of other team cast offs or free agents, for good or ill. It is clear Jake Arrieta's tank is pretty empty.

The June Swoon gives management the argument that the season is lost . . . so a fire sale is in the best interests of the club. If the team does not trade its pending free agents, the current CBA allows for a Round 1A compensation pick. But no one knows what the new CBA will look like (which will freeze the free agent market this off-season).

UP THE DOWN GRADE

 Let us look at the Cubs current major league roster depth chart:

LF: Open 

CF: Happ

RF: Heyward

3B: Bryant

SS: Baez

2B: Hoerner

1B: Rizzo

C: Contreras

SP1: Hendricks

SP2: Davies

SP3: Mills

SP4: Open

SP5: Open

Closer: Kimbrel

Bryant, Baez and Rizzo will be free agents after 2021.

Heyward and Kimbrel are untradeable due to their dead money contracts.

Even if you move Bryant to LF and Bote to third, how is this roster going to be any better than 2020?

Losing Lester, Chatwood and Darvish from the rotation is a killer issue. Will you go with inexperienced pitchers like Alzolay, Rea and Marquez to be placeholders?

The roster down grades are apparent in the OF, starting rotation, bullpen and closer.

With Contreras, Bryant and Baez being actively shopped by Jed Hoyer, who knows what dumpster fire will take the field during spring training.

SHUFFLING THE DECK CHAIRS

 Everyone knows the Cubs are a sinking ship. Tom Ricketts continues to declare "biblical" losses during the 2020 season. Theo Epstein could not part the sea of red ink. So Theo decided to bail; he cut a deal where his friend, Jed Hoyer, would retain his job with the new President title. The move saves Ricketts $10 million in Theo's 2021 salary. (The Athletic reported that recently the Cubs laid off 100 employees which we assume does not count the scouting and minor league staff let go early in the year.)

The Cubs are still a highly leveraged (debtor) team. The Ricketts family is also highly leveraged due to their overbuilding around Wrigley Field. The pandemic crushed their real estate holdings as many tenants, including Joe Maddon's restaurant, went out of business. Tom Ricketts had convinced his parents that the Cubs were a money making machine even in bad times (under the Tribune ownership).

But the Cubs bowing out early in the playoffs since the World Championship has hurt the club, both financially and structurally. Theo and Jed put all their eggs in early first round (can't miss) prospects like Bryant, Schwarber, Almora and Happ while overpaying for free agents to fill roster gaps (especially in pitching.) 

Since 2016, the team core (Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Contreras and Schwarber) have not lived up to high expectations. Instead of a dynasty, the Cubs gained one World Championship (which was a generational accomplishment not to be dismissed in their legacy). But as 2021 is around the corner, the cupboard is bare.

Three fifths of the starting rotation is gone to free agency. The core of Bryant, Baez, Rizzo and Schwarber are in their final contract years. The Cubs minor league system is devoid of any major prospects. The system ranked 26th with Nico Hoerner the only Top 100 prospect.

2021 appears heading toward a "crash and burn" season. The pundits believe the Cubs should trade their pending free agents to get something for them (other than a compensation draft pick). But others note that those players are coming off bad seasons so they have little trade value. A few writers even speculated that the Cubs could non-tender Schwarber to save his projected $8 million arbitration award. No team is going to take Bryant and his $18.5 million projected salary as a rental player, especially with his injury history and poor 2020 stats.

The only players with real trade value are Darvish and Hendricks. But Hoyer cannot be insane to trade away his remaining starters for prospects. Internal candidates to fill the rotation are Mills, Alzolay and Rea. Ian Happ was the only player to show a break out potential to other clubs. But trading Happ leaves Almora the sole center field candidate.

Even though money came off the books (Lester, Chatwood, Quintana), that money appears to be lost in 2021 as Ricketts clearly indicated that the payroll must come down substantially. As of today, there is not one AAA player who projects to be a starting MLB player. 

Another problem is that the fan base may not support another complete tear-down rebuild. The Cubs were good enough in a bad division to have middle round draft picks but it will be more hit and miss since the scouting department was gutted in 2020. Player development has always been an issue for this team. Hoyer indicated that he may rely more on advanced stats than scouting eyes. But that has been the problem with stat overload on major league players (and a rotation of coaches preaching new approaches). 

The Epstein era had the Worst of Times and the Best of Times and now fades back to the Worst of Times. For diehard Cub fans, the White Sox resurgence with young, exciting players, is going to be bitter pill to swallow as the Cubs begin to wallow.

THE ROAD AHEAD

 The Cubs dismal playoff run ended in another whimper.

Since the 2016 Championship, the Cubs have steadily gone down hill in October.

And it is surprising since they had home field advantage for this run.

The promise of a Cub dynasty was an illusion.

Theo Epstein has one season left on his contract. He will leave the Cubs because he is being handcuffed by the Cubs business side and the bitter taste of bad contracts which led to his down fall.

The Cubs only have 16 players under contract for 2021 (assuming the Cubs are not stupid to exercise $25 million option on Lester).

The projected payroll for those 16 is still $162 million.

Another $16 million is minimum to fill out 40 man roster. That is $178 million.
You have your starting OF and IF in tact, but no bench.
And you only have two starting pitchers (Darvish and Hendricks).
And you are stuck with Kimbrel as your closer (Jeffrees is a FA).

Consideringwe estimate  Ricketts lost at least $75 million on baseball and his failing real estate development (many tenants went bust during the pandemic), the Cubs will not spend any money (again) as the core 4 become free agents after 2021 (Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, Schwarber). There will be no "let's go for it" final charge by this team. It looks more likely it will fizzle before the end of next spring training.

The prospect of another LONG rebuild is here. The Cubs minor league system is barren. Epstein did not draft and develop one quality starting pitcher during his tenure. The post-2020 pandemic season may lead to a very tense stand-off with the players union in the last year of the CBA. Owners will demand lowering the luxury tax (as a means of repressing salaries). Owners will probably try to keep the 60 man bubble taxi squad program in lieu of spending millions on a minor league system that did not play in 2020. (It is important to note that minor league players won the first part of their class action lawsuit against minor league owners and MLB for being paid less than the minimum wage.)

Another fall out from 2020 is that the Cubs (and most clubs) terminated most of their scouting and training staffs in order to save money. The Cubs were an administrative top heavy organization so it is doubtful that Epstein in his final year will have the budget to spend to re-hire his former troops.

If the Cubs 2020 was a lost season, then 2021 could be a dead one.

MAGNIFICATION

The 2020 season will be a grind. 60 games in 9 weeks plus 2 days. There will only be 5 days off.

Commentators have called this season a "sprint" to the finish. It is more like "sink or swim."

The general rule of thumb in pennant race is that a team is still in contention if the number of games behind is equal to or less than the number of weeks left in the season. The reason is simple: unless you are playing the divisional leader head to head, it is very difficult to gain ground or pass other division teams.

The schedule will be a pressure cooker. Teams are going to be playing an average of 6.6 games per week. That is about as bad as youth travel baseball clubs.

Each win or loss equals 3 regular season games.

A three game losing streak is equal to a 9 game losing streak. That is the magnitude of the season.

Each three game series is a playoff contest. You must win two of three in order to advance. That has to be the mindset. There needs to be a sense of urgency. There may be a 40 victory team this season (equal to 120 wins) and a 40 loss team (perhaps in the same division).

The microscope will be on everyone: the new managers trying to learn on the fly; established starters who cannot afford "slow" starts; and teams with high cost talent with no major revenue. Post-season or bust has never been more alarming than this year. As it stands today, starting pitchers are having a harder time getting into game shape than hitters.

And this assumes that the league will actually play a full season. Today, it was reported another 70,000 positive coronavirus tests in the US. The Toronto Blue Jays have been evicted from Canada. The plan to play in Pittsburgh was vetoed yesterday by the state. The Jays might as well change their name to the "Orphans."

With the new game rules and the condensed schedule, the 2020 season will have a big question mark in the history and record books. If a player hits .400, does it really count?

BY THE NUMBERS

Today's story is a continuing loop of arrogant denial.
The Cubs think their team is the best entertainment product in Chicago
so Comcast HAS TO carry its network.

Today's story from Yahoo Sports:

“I’m starting to lose you. Hello?”

That was Marquee Sports Network general manager Mike McCarthy when asked for an update on the carriage talks between his network and Comcast, which has yet to pick up the channel. It wasn’t the first time he played the joke, either.

“Good memory,” he said. “I’ll have to come up with another one.” 

McCarthy, who previously was president of MSG Network in New York, knows all about carriage talks. But he wouldn’t reveal much regarding the ones that affect lots of Cubs fans, except to say he’s confident a deal will get done. 

“I can’t speak for Comcast, but I wouldn’t want to be in the TV distribution business in Chicago with the Cubs coming back and not having that content,” he said. “It wouldn’t be a fun place to be, I would think. 

“We have a confidence that we’re steadfast in. There’s a little time left [before Opening Day]. It’s closing in on us; we’re very aware of that. We remain confident that a deal will be made.”

The sides were very close to an agreement in March when baseball shut down because of the coronavirus pandemic. Comcast provides service to more than half of the homes in the market.

>>>> Of course he cannot speak for Comcast because Comcast holds all the leverage and understands it does not need the Cubs to succeed.

It already has a baseball team - - - its partner in CSNBC. And the White Sox have the buzz the Cubs had in 2015 but with a younger team.

The math does not make sense for Comcast. It's extended basic package in Chicago already costs $95/month. Cord cutting is still happening because of the cost. The Cubs wanted $6/month per subscriber - - - that puts the costs over a hundred dollars a month for most people who will not even watch the games.

In 2019, Cubs local ratings dropped from 4.8 to 4.1 (135,000 viewers).
If a cable operator has 1.6 million subscribers, but only 135,000 watch Cubs games, it means 92 percent of its customers DO NOT want to pay for the Cubs games.

By this metric, Comcast could only justify the expense if 135,000 x $4/viewer/month (last alleged Cubs offer) or $540,000/month (or a 34 cent increase in all customer bills).

By the Cubs financial desire and valuation, it wants $4/viewer/month on 1.6 million subscribers or $6.4 million/month. (Which equate to $76.8 million, which is less than reported TV revenue in 2019 by about 22%).

Comcast is in no rush to EAT $6 million/month for Cubs broadcasts when it has the White Sox on its own regional sports network. Why bail out a competitor?

And why should Comcast pay for Marquee when the 2020 season is still in doubt? By signing a carriage deal now, Comcast would have to pay Marquee whether Cubs games are shown or not. A network that has not gotten good reviews from those few people who actually can see it.

The Cubs ownership position was flawed from the beginning. It took too long to get its network in place under the broken and outdated Dodgers model. Ownership got greedy because of the built up debt and realities of overbuilding around Wrigley. Management arrogantly assumed that it could get a better deal than its past cable partnership. By all metrics, they are wrong.

LESS THAN HALF THE STORY

I take issue with the one-sided nature of Bruce Levine's report. He did not challenge Tom Ricketts statements to season ticket holders.


Levine stated Ricketts' comment were notable because owners and players have key financial discussions looming as they negotiate a return-to-play framework for a 2020 season that has been suspended due to the coronavirus pandemic. Owners have proposed a plan that includes 50-50 revenue sharing, which the union has pushed back against, saying that it's a form of a salary cap.
Some players have expressed the belief that they should be compensated on a full pro-rated basis because they're the ones taking the health risk, as Rays ace Blake Snell said recently. Beyond that, another argument is that it's unfair for owners to "privatize the the gains and socialize the losses," as powerful agent Scott Boras said. The union hasn't officially commented on its stance.

Under the system of paying players fully pro-rated money, the losses would be too significant in the owners' eyes. MLB owners stand to lose an estimated $4 billion if no baseball is played in 2020, MLB commissioner said on CNN on Thursday.

"This has been a total shutdown of Major League Baseball," Ricketts said. "Unlike the NBA or NHL who had played 80 percent of their seasons, we have played zero. We have to look at how economics will affect the rest of the season. If we are looking at games with no fans, then we do have a real challenge. For the Cubs, about 70 percent of the (gross) revenues come in on the day of games. It comes in through selling tickets, concessions and the ballpark experience (such as parking and merchandise). The other 30 percent comes in through media -- whether it's on Marquee Sports Network, our local media partners and our share of the national media revenues.

"So ultimately, what we are looking at if we can get players into the ballparks is playing a partial season without fans. We are looking at 30 percent of our economics cut in half, so the fact is we must dig deep to find a financial model that works -- the players must feel fairly compensated and ownership doesn't continue to absorb the kind of losses we have so far this season. We are all working diligently toward that. At some point, there will be more discussions. You will hear a lot about it and read a lot about it. It must come down to finding a solution that works for everyone."
Ricketts emphasized players safety is the top priority for the league and owners.

"Every week, the owners have met to talk about how to get baseball back on the field," he said. "We have currently talked about getting back into our home ballparks for this season. That would be without fans. The league has worked very diligently to put into place the most extensive set of protocols, medical safeguards that are out there anywhere. We would be limiting access to the players, limiting access to the number of people in the park. With a strong testing regiment and various other protocols, we can create the safest working environment possible for our players if they are able to come back this summer. We do not have a 100% answer or all clear, but we think the league has created a safe working environment for players to come back to the ballparks. That is very good."

The news report only soft peddles an owner who is not telling a complete truth by trying to gain sympathy over his greedy players. Ricketts is snake oil selling his season ticket holders WHO ALREADY GAVE HIM THEIR MONEY. But Ricketts is hiding in his figures.

As I have reported since the Zell sale, Ricketts family has divided up various parts of "the old Cubs" into separate legal entities: the Cubs as a baseball franchise, Wrigley Field as a real estate owner, the parking lots as a different LLC, the triangle parcel as a separate corporation, and the hotel block as a separate entity. In other words, the Cubs have been stripped of any outside revenue generating properties.

The Cubs team is merely a TENANT at Wrigley Field. It does not share ANY of the revenue from parking, the plaza, or the real estate development income.

When Ricketts says that 70% of Cubs income comes directly from fans (when the league average is only 30%) it is a three card monte financial statement illusion. He is not counting the RENT the Cubs pay to the Ricketts, or all the Wrigleyville income/outside ball park concessions and alcohol sales. The Cubs were stripped down of any outside income sources so the money could flow directly into Ricketts bank accounts.

As for the other 30% income: Marquee Network (a bust), local radio (on a station friendly low revenue deal because Kenney screwed up local rights years ago), and the national TV contract share (which is less than other clubs because Chicago is a large market city). When he says half of the media money is gone, he is saying that Marquee has generated nothing compared to his old Comcast partnership.

Ricketts's turned the Cubs baseball operation, if it is 70 percent dependent on the gate for income,  into a struggling, small market model.






Claiming the Cubs are in dire straights in the coronavirus panic is a FALSE NARRATIVE because Ricketts brought this financial house of cards down on himself. Three restaurants in his buildings have closed in less than 18 months of operation. His big $$$$$ Cubs network is a disaster. Even his local radio partner stopped replaying classic games (when the station has no live content!) He is not selling merchandise; he is not selling alcohol by the barge load; he is not a very good businessman.

He wants "a solution that works" for everybody, but he is really whining about his own potential crushing financial losses.  The 50-50 revenue share works for a delusional Ricketts because no fans in the stands means at 70 percent pay cut for players. If the media income is down by half or more, that means another 15 percent pay cut for the players.

The outside the ball club revenue has to have taken a major hit as Chicago shut down bars and most of the restaurants. Without Cub games, there is no influx of tourists and fans to his Wrigleyville properties. Closed businesses are going to fall behind on rental payments or go out of business.  The Ricketts created their own overdeveloped real estate bubble which burst when the season was suspended by the pandemic.

THE GENIE IS OUT OF THE BOTTLE

It was only a matter of time when the Truth would leak out about the Cubs disappointing post-championship seasons. Javy Baez recently ran out into the media highway to drop a few bombs on himself and his teammates.

The Associated Press reported that Baez said  the Cubs were lacking last year when it came to their pregame routines and work ethic. “We had a lot of optional things, not mandatory, and everyone kind of sat back on that — including me. I wasn’t really going out there and preparing for the game. I was getting ready during the game, which is not good,” Baez said. “But this year, I think before the games, everybody should be out there as a team, stretch as a team, be together as a team so we can play together.”

Cubs President of Baseball Operations Theo Epstein said last week he could think of only two times in 18 years of running major league clubs that he felt “basic organizational standards for work, preparation and behavior” were not being met. (One can easily say that was a shot at Joe Maddon's management style, being a "player's manager.")

New skipper David Ross said at the end of the day, from a manager's standpoint, coaches try to get players prepared and put them in the best possible situation to succeed, but baseball has “always been about the players.”

“So for (Báez) to say that, and saying the group feels they can turn it up a notch, I mean, that’s a powerful message they are sending,” Ross said. “This is never about the manager. It never should be about the manager. When you're in that locker room, the players are the ones affecting the outcome.”
(Ross is defending Maddon because he is right: players have to take the responsibility themselves to prepare for games.)

If the lack of preparation was a problem, then the front office is also to blame. The baseball executives have spent millions on new analytical labs, new coaches and trainers to tell players how to hit and pitch. Theo hired and fired three batting coaches in three years. We suspect that after a while, the players just tuned out everyone.

Dusty Baker, also a players' manager, often said that he left his players alone in their game preparation. He often cited that the players are "professionals" and professionals know how to act. He was relying on his own experience as a player (in a vastly different time.)

Ozzie Guillen was a vocal leader. But he continually stressed the fundamentals and principles of the game. Before the first game of every series, he scheduled mandatory fielding drills for all his players.

Theo wanted performance over potential in 2019. He did not get it because his players did not get the message. The reason is simple. The lack of any farm system talent and budget constraints means that there is no new players pushing the existing core to play their best. There is no real competition for starting position roster spots. There is a lack of urgency and drive if you know that there is no one on the team ready, willing and able to take your job.

The Cubs organization is in a total mess. Ross brings back the championship cred, but it may not translate to a strict manager berating his friends and former teammates to tow the line.  How will he change a culture that has had the players merely going through the motions? It is not that Ross can sit players for not trying hard because he has to win now.

THE FALL OUT

The house of cards that is our Chicago Cubs seems to falling down after another disappointing end to a season. The 2016 championship seems to be a distant memory. The idea of dynasty seems to be fantasy.

But nothing compared to the Ricketts family's fantasy that the Cubs were a money making ATM machine.

With Maddon's release, the Cubs have moved on to David Ross. But many other things have moved on from the Cubs.

Maddon's Post, a restaurant in the new Ricketts outside-the-park commercial development, abruptly closed after seven months. This is the third restaurant/bar in Ricketts' properties to have closed in the past year. The problem must be that the Ricketts overdeveloped the area, put in high lease rentals, and the businesses could not be profitable.

Also moving on is local over-the-air Cubs games. WGN will no longer broadcast any Chicago sports teams (it began in 1924). The Cubs Marquee Network launches in approximately 50 days. But it has no on-air talent, it has de minis cable contracts in the metro area, and no programming announcements to fill 24 hours/day. Kasper and Deshaies contracts expired at the end of the 2019 season. Hughes and Comer radio contracts may expire at the end of 2020.

The news broke as the season ended that the Ricketts family overspent on the Wrigley renovations by $600 million. That was not unexpected considering they decided to phase the work over three years instead of one intense project. The fact that the Ricketts overspent for the team (by an estimated $500 million) and doubled the cost on Wrigley, the Cubs operations are not generating enough revenue to off-set those financial hurdles.

The fall out from these financial stumbles is clear in that Theo has been handcuffed in spending. He can barely sign dual contracts for minor league reclamation projects. The Cubs are already over the luxury tax threshold by $10-18 million. It means the team must shed current star players in order to get into the business side's budget figures. The rest of the league knows the Cubs want to shed payroll so the trade market will not be as generous as Theo would want it to be to fill the depth and holes in the current roster.

There are problems with the rotation, the bullpen, lead off hitter, and center field that have no solutions in the minor leagues. Free agency and money was to fix roster problems during this "championship window" but Theo overspent to get the 2016 championship and now dead money deals have painted the team into a corner.

It appears the team revenue and finances will not allow the Cubs to be free spenders to acquire talent. They will have to operate as a small market team with the debt burden of a major franchise. If the Cubs' opening roster is the same as 2019, how are fans supposed to react? Three years of underperforming is not a oddity but a trend.

The Cubs were more popular when they were the Lovable Losers. Once the championship happened, die hard fans got their once-in-a-lifetime thrill. Now, many do not want to spend premium ticket and concession prices for a bad team.

A PILLAR IN CF

The Cubs have many issues to resolve by spring training 2020.

An aging starting rotation.
Core players nearing the end of their contractual control.
Ownership enforcing a hard cap on spending.
Major line up holes to fill.
A bullpen that needs reconstruction (again).
A farm system that is sub par.

The Cubs have almost no farm assets to trade for a quality major league player.
The only trade assets are current roster players (Bryant, Contreras, Schwarber and Rizzo). But the front office overvalues and keeps "their guys" unless there is an attitude change.

One of the position black holes has been center field. Heyward is a gold glove RF. He needs to be moved back to that position (and bat 5th or 6th in the lineup where he had his best batting average in 2019). Albert Almora appears to be a utility player. He had been given the opportunity to win the CF job, but he failed.

To solve two problems are once, the Cubs should consider signing free agent CF Kevin Pillar. Pillar is a plus outfield defender, with a plus 11 runs saved. He can play CF. Last year, he hit .259, 21 HR, 88 RBI, 14 SB for the Giants. The Giants non-tendered him because estimates were that his $5.8 million salary would jump to $8-10 million in 2020.

Whether the Cubs can afford Pillar at that level is questionable. Whether the Cubs need to sign him to fill two roles is not in question. It would be a much more stable lineup, even if the Cubs made no further moves.

1. Pillar CF
2. Schwarber LF
3. Bryant 3B
4. Rizzo 1B
5. Baez SS
6. Contreras C
7. Heyward RF
8. Hoerner 2B
9 Pitcher

In this set lineup, Bryant protects Schwarber, Rizzo protects Bryant, Baez protects Rizzo and Contreras protects Baez.  It makes opposing pitchers have to plan carefully through the top of the Cubs lineup.

ALL-CHICAGO

Winter baseball in Chicago usually revolves the debate between Cub  and White Sox fans on whose team has better players or a better chance to win next season.

The Cubs path has been in a disappointing decline. The White Sox path has been rebuilding but stalling on development of starting pitchers.

A side by side comparison of the current 40 man roster players (2019 WAR). (*= injury year; R = Rookie Year).

SP1:  Giolito (5.6) v. Hendricks (3.9) 
SP2:  Kopech (0.1*) v. Darvish (3.0)
SP3: Cease (-0.2) v. Lester (1.7)
SP4:  Lopez (0.5) v. Quintana (0.7)
SP5: Rodon (0.1 *) v. Mills (1.0)

Giolito was clearly the best starter in Chicago. Kopech and Rodon were injured. Cease disappointed (but he may have been rushed to the majors). Hendricks and Darvish had good years. Lopez and Quintana are nearly wash. Lester is on the twilight of his pitching career. If you were going to give anyone an slight edge (3 to 2), it would be the White Sox with youth and potential vs. Cubs you saw what you have season. Rodon has experience Mills does not.

C:  McCann (3.8) v. Contreras (3.1)  McCann has a very quiet but better season than Contreras, who is now the trade bait rumor of the day.

1B: Abreu (2.4) v. Rizzo (3.9)  Rizzo had to grind away to get his normal stat season; while Abreu surprised as an AL RBI machine with league leading 123.

2B: Sanchez (2.1) v. Hoerner (R)  Sanchez won a gold glove and the Cubs second base position has been a black hole.

SS: Anderson (4.0) v. Baez (4.8) This is closer than people think, but the nod is still to Baez for his dynamic running ability and defense.

3B: Moncada (4.6) v Bryant (3.6).  Moncada had a quiet monster season for the White Sox, significantly better than Bryant.

The infield selection yields in favor of the White Sox by a 3 to 2 margin.

LF: Jiminez (1.4) v. Schwarber (2.3)  Schwarber had his best full season in LF, but he is still compared to Adam Dunn. Jiminez still has more potential. Both are not good defensively. It is almost a wash, but based upon last season the edge goes to Schwarber (who also may be trade bait).

CF: Robert (R) v. Almora (-1.0)  It is not often that an unproven rookie would get the nod, but Robert is projected as a serious 5 tool stud. Almora has been terrible in his opportunities to win the CF spot.

RF: Garcia (1.6) v. Heyward (2.0). This position currently stands as almost a wash, but if you have to chose, Heyward for his defense.

The Cubs outfield squeaks out the nod. But both teams will have to address their weak outfield positions.

Closer: Colome (1.0) v. Kimbrel (-0.5) The White Sox did not trade their closer at the deadline even though he had value. He will have more value with a better team as the White Sox project in 2020. Kimbrel has been terrible. He was beyond rusty; he was bad. But the Cubs are stuck with him.

Overall, both bullpens are going to churned by both teams so you cannot gauge how it will turn out into after spring training.

In the current state, the Cubs and White Sox appear pretty even. The Cubs could continue to decline and the White Sox could rise to meet as .500 clubs in 2020. That would not be surprising.

THE COLLABORATOR

David Ross is the new Cubs manager.

It really did not surprise many people.

But it is a surprise hire if you thought the Cubs were ready to win in 2020.

It was no surprise because Cubs ownership needed a new "face" for the franchise after letting Joe Maddon go to the Angels. For all the "marquee" players on the roster, it was Maddon who talked to the press at least twice daily. Ross becomes the new hire because he was a popular, folklore figure from the 2016 championship team. He has a reputation of a good clubhouse leader. He had a "get in your face" attitude with his teammates. Whether he can transition from being a teammate to being their boss is an open question.

If Maddon was the only thing holding the Cubs back from a long 2019 post-season run, then one would have assumed that his replacement would be an experienced, championship caliber manager (Girardi). But the Cubs clearly signaled that they did not want to have an independent dugout voice.

The Cubs continue to spend a fortune on more layers of administrative baseball staff (like new directors of hitting and pitching) to feed more technology and information into the current team coaches (who are not going to lose their jobs with the Ross hire). Theo and Company have built a front office like baseball is a video game that they can control from their skybox. Reams of analytical data has replaced an experienced manager's gut instincts.

The press conference attempted to stress the "qualifications" of Ross to be the next Cub skipper.
Theo said the club had been grooming Ross to be the manager since he left the team in 2016. He has been a special assistant. He sat in on scouting meetings. He sat in the amateur draft. He spent this spring training shadowing Maddon. Ross said that he wanted to become a manager when he was a player, so he observed and learned from Bobby Cox and Maddon.

Not lost on anyone is the fact that Ross has not managed at any level. Ross has not coached at any professional level. If the Cubs were grooming him to take over for Maddon, why did not Ross manage a Cubs minor league team? He had three years to get some managerial experience.

But he did not. And the Cubs did not think it was necessary. Why? Because the Cubs are not looking for a manager but a front office collaborator. A person the GM and staff can control.

Just as an experienced manager would demand a working knowledge of what the team would do for him (i.e. spend on free agents, the health of the current roster and farm system) and a pledge from ownership to spend money in the off-season (as Maddon received from the Angels), Ross was in no position to get those promises. And the Cubs could not offer them.

Tom Ricketts clearly stated that the 2020 Cubs would rebuild from within, which was another clear statement that the Cubs would not be spenders in free agency. With the farm system one of the worst in baseball, and Theo's inability to draft, develop and promote a major league starting pitcher, next year's Cubs will be the same team unless major star(s) are traded for young talent.

But as the Nationals showed you can win a championship by getting rid of your franchise player (Harper). However, it only works when you have a young rookie phenom like Soto to take his place. The Cubs have a roster construction problem. There are no minor league prospects pushing for a major league roster spot.

Will Ross be a figurehead or will he put his own stamp on the Cubs? That is the million dollar question. No one has inferred that the players quit on Maddon. The complaint was Maddon was not getting the best out of the talent on the roster. But it may be that the front office continues to overvalue their talent.

A slow start. A rash of injuries. The first real 2020 crisis will show whether Ross will be an independent voice of accountability or another Cubs PR person.

MARQUEE NETWORK

It was announced yesterday that the Cubs Marquee Network signed its
first carriage deal with AT&T's DirectTV (dish) and U-verse (cable) platforms.

No terms were announced, as in how much it will cost subscribers per month.
The Cubs floated numbers around $6 to $12 per month.

The Marquee contract was part of a deal where Sinclair, the Cubs partner,  bundled its 21 regional sports networks into one deal with AT&T to carry their networks.

DirectTV is going with the business model of being Sports heavy in content
while DishTV is cutting or eliminating sports programming to be the
cheaper alternative in the Dish industry.

Also, AT&T has been trying to get its cable platform (fiber optic network) users to move to Direct TV
to save costs of maintaining cables.

I could not find a reference to AT&T's cable market share for Chicago, but
nationally it appears that Comcast has 57% share to AT&T's 8%.

On the bad news side of things, 92% of Cub fans in Chicago metro market could be
blacked out of Cubs games (The Dodgers Network disaster), or at best, 43% could receive it (highly doubtful Comcast is going to carry a competitor and small cable operators are not going to pay hefty new carriage fees.

In reality, the best outcome for the Cubs is actually a 14% decrease in market availability
from the expired Comcast arrangement. Good work Crane Kenney. Good work Tom Ricketts.

In addition, the Marquee Network has no marquee names in the talent department. Len Kasper and Jim DeShaies contracts expired in October. The radio crew may have one year left on their deals.

Bob Costas was interviewed this week. He was asked if wanted to be the face of the Cubs new network. He said he was not contacted but he would say no. He was not interested in local baseball broadcasting at this point in his career. David Kaplan turned down an offer to be the "face" of the Cubs network which was a telling sign by the self-proclaimed number one Cubs fan.

Besides having no "face" of the new network in place, there have been no program announcements other thanthe 150 games of the 2020 season. How will Marquee fill 24 hours a day? That is the expensive question.

THE OFF-SEASON

The Cubs have a monumental work load this off-season. Whether ownership and management realize it is another story.

Front and center is a new managerial hire. The question is whether the new manager will be more effective than Maddon, or will he be handcuffed by front office hires. Maddon had to accept the rotation of coaches hired by the front office. A new, experienced manager would want to hire his "own guys" to make sure his philosophies are implemented with the players. But the Cubs clearly do not operate that way. The front office has embrace high technology and advanced statistics to the point that they believe a baseball game is no different than a computer game. It is more than likely the new Cubs skipper will be a figurehead manager.

For a long time, we have been on the roster construction issue. The Esptein Cubs have drafted quality hitters, but only Kris Bryant has proven to meet expectations when not injured. Kyle Schwarber, Albert Almora and Ian Happ have become platoon players. You cannot field a team of .235 hitters and expect to win.

Where are the area needing upgraded improvements?

1. SECOND BASE. There has been a convention of players who tried to play the position. No one has made a lasting impression as a starting second baseman. Theo & Company have fallen into the Jim Hendry trap of drafting and promoting multiple second basemen to play various positions (not well). As it currently stands, is Addison Russell your starting 2020 second baseman? (cringe). Or is it unexpected rookie call up Nico Hoerner? (maybe).

2. CENTER FIELD. Albert Almora had an opportunity to take the CF position but failed. He cannot hit major league pitching. Jason Heyward played center to the detriment of his defense and his offense. When he was playing right field and batting 5th or 6th in the line-up, he was nearly a .300 hitter. When Maddon moved him to center and lead off (out of necessity) he crashed to a .117 hitter. Everyone expects Heyward's untradeable contract to be parked in Right Field in 2020.

3. CLOSER/BULLPEN.  Brandon Morrow was a dead money contract from the get-go. Craig Kimbrel is looking like Morrow 2.0. The bullpen is going to be churned and burned again because the Cubs minor league system is not producing any quality arms. Dillon Maples has a fastball but no control. James Norwood has no long run consistency. Duane Underwood could be the next Carl Edwards. You have the journeyman club of David Phelps, Danny Hultzen, Alec Mills, Rowan Wick, Brad Weick and Kyle Ryan. Of that group, maybe two or three will stay on the roster.

4. STARTING ROTATION. The starters suddenly got old and bad. It was a year long struggle just to complete five innings. Jose Quintana was the most consistent pitcher but he was not great. The professor, Kyle Hendricks, got schooled for most of the second half. Cole Hamels will not return. Jon Lester may have no gas left in the tank. The fifth starter has been a lingering problem since Tyler Chatwood failed to be demoted to the bullpen. The Cubs have only two potential arms in minors: Adbert Alzolay, who was rocked in his spot starts, and Colin Rea, a rehab pitcher who was the best player on the 2019 Iowa Cubs. There may be two or three openings in the rotation for next season.

5. LEFT FIELD. Fans like Kyle Schwarber in left. The front office loves Schwarbie. But even with the Cubs own mantra about big data requirements like OBP, Schwarber fails. His defense is still sub par. His offense is confined to a homer or bust mentality. With his natural short swing, he takes too many pitches and strikes out too often. Is he a trade candidate? Yes. Will the Cubs get a good return? Probably not because DH candidates do not command much trade value. Besides, which team is desperate to find a young Adam Dunn?

There are at least 10 positions that need to be upgraded by the Cubs. Ten. That is an expected  40% roster turnover. It has to be done. It has to be painful. The Cubs window for a championship slams shut in two years when Bryant, Baez and Rizzo become free agents.

Ownership does not appear inclined to spend money in free agent to fix holes. The pending Cubs network is looking like a financial disaster. The Marquee Network has no distribution platform. Cable and dish-tv services are rebelling against regional sports channel subscriber fees as cord cutting continues to rake the industry.

The front office will have to try its stars in order to bolster the roster. But Theo does not like to trade "his guys." Do you trade Bryant for 2 or 3 major league ready players plus prospects? Two years ago that was unthinkable. Today, it is a viable option. But Bryant may not have the most trade value. Javy Baez is the most exciting player. Willson Contreras is a rare catcher with power. Baez and Contreras could fetch the most off-season trade returns. Both are not Theo & Company draft picks but they are part of the core and would be hard to replace.

But something will have to change or the Cubs will continue to slide in the NL Central.

A PEEK INTO 2020

The Cubs are going to have a difficult 2019 off-season.

Whether the team sneaks into the playoffs or crashes & burns in St. Louis, the on-paper team has not lived up to expectations after the 2016 World Series. A dynasty it did not become.

There should be changes. It is almost certain that manager Joe Maddon ($6 million) will not be re-signed by the Cubs. In an era of paying managers a million bucks, Maddon is a dinosaur. It is not that he will not get work. National columnists believe he will land either with the Angels, Giants or Phillies.

Gone from the 2020 Cub roster is an easy exercise of expiring contracts:

SP Hamels ($20M), IN Zobrist ($12.5M), CL Morrow ($9M), RP Cishek ($6.5M), RP Strop ($6.25M), RP Kintzler ($5M), IN Delcasco ($1.5M/ buyout).  Approximately $62.5 million will be shed from the current payroll. But that figure alone does not give the front office much firepower to retool the club.

The starting rotation became a collective laboring crew. 2020 will have Lester, Darvish, Hendricks and Quintana as starters by default. The 5th starter projects to be AAA SP Colin Rea, who had an MVP minor league season at Iowa. Also in the mix would be RHP Chatwood or reclamation project LHP Hultzen.

The bullpen is going to have major turnover as well. For good or ill, Kimbrel is the closer. Wick and Ryan have earned a spot on next year's roster. The jury is still out on Underwood, Mills, Maples and Weick.With an added man on the 2020 roster, one could easily see another relief pitcher for a 15 man pitching staff.

The question remains whether the position core is good enough to compete next year.

OF: Schwarber, Almora, Happ, Heyward
IN: Bryant, Baez, Bote, Russell, Rizzo
C: Contreras, Caratini

Every single one of these players has had up and downs in 2019. The concept of having a roster of multi-positional utility fielders has run its course. The platoon situation has not worked well for the Cubs in CF and 2B. There is still a glaring need for a traditional lead off hitter. New age stats be damned: the Cubs need contact hitters with high BA to manufacture runs in close games.

Of the 11 position players above, it is possible that 4 of them will not be on the 2020 opening roster. Russell could easily be replaced by Nico Hoerner. Bryant, Almora, Happ and Caratini could be trade chips for a load of prospects since the Cubs minor league system now ranks as one of the league's worst.

Even if the Cubs sign a young ace pitcher (Gerrit Cole) or a real veteran lead off hitting second baseman or center fielder, is that squad any better than the Cardinals or the Brewers?

NEW PITCHING STAFFS

As baseballs are flying out of ball parks at record numbers, the whole concept of a pitching staff is slowly beginning to change.

Starters are no longer geared toward pitching to contact or going complete games. It is now a rarity that a starter goes past 7 innings.  The new normal is 5 innings. This puts a huge strain on the bullpen, which is now bloated to at least 9 relievers.

Some managers are using "bullpen" days to get through series. The relief corps pitch the entire game, usually 2 or 3 innings for long relievers and then the set up men and closer.  A few managers have decided to start a tough reliever to get through the top of the order, then bring in their normal starter in the second inning. This avoids seeing the opponent's top three hitters three times in a game (as stats show a dramatic fall off in pitching performance the third time through the line up card).

The need for bullpen arms absorbing more innings per season is not lost on GMs (or player agents). Middle relievers or swingmen have had steady salary increases in free agency because teams now find Andrew Miller type relievers golden (they can be middle inning "stoppers," long relievers or even closers).

There are still several stud "ace" starters in the major leagues. But there are turning into baseball's dinosaurs: high salaries and less performance.

The real push for change in starting pitching is going to be economic.

The Cubs example is telling: the team was squeezed by an business mandate not to go over the luxury cap of $206 million. The five starters are being paid $85.5 million for 2019. That is 41.5% of the lux cap space. The 9 relievers in the bullpen are being paid $55.6 million. That is 27.2 % of the lux cap space. In total, pitching at the start of the season took up $141.1 million (68.7%) of payroll budget. Or an average of $10.1 million/pitcher.

That only leaves $64.9 million to be distributed to 11 position players (for an average of $5.9 million per player.) This is why the Cubs could not make any major off-season moves for position bats because it is hard to find very good every day players for $6 million/year. Veteran bench players get that kind of money.

The budget dollars will be allocated away from pitching toward hitting if traditional starter roles are going to be decreased in the near future. (We have discussed the concept of pitching pods in the past; a system where 3 pitchers are grouped together to pitch a game; 4 pods equal 12 pitchers - - - with two additional relievers in reserve. It is a modified bullpen game but with designated pitching squads instead of a traditional rotation.)  A pitching staff of relievers may cost $6 million/arm or $84 million, which is still less than the Cubs opening rotation cost of $85.5 million. Then you almost have double the amount to spend on position players.

Will this work? We will not know until it is tried and tested in a real season(s).

THE TEAR DOWN PROJECT

The baseball world was shocked when the Red Sox dismissed President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski less than a year after winning the World Series.

The reasoning for the termination of the man who helped produce a championship is vague. There is speculation that there was a rift between baseball operations and ownership/business side of the organization. There is speculation that the Red Sox are saddled with big money contracts that can quickly turn into dead money deals. There is always the rivalry with the Yankees, who have overcome 26 injuries to runaway with the AL East title.

Ricketts fancies himself as a follower of the Red Sox baseball operations. He wants to create an outside venue for fans (and profit) like Boston did around Fenway Park. The Cubs also have a split organizational structure: one baseball side and one business side. It has been clear for years that the Cubs baseball side has been at odds with the business side over payroll and spending issues.

Theo Epstein is also sitting on several potential dead money deals with the second highest payroll in the majors. He also has brought in many new players who have not helped the team surge into first place. The team is currently floundering in second place in the NL Central and losing a grip on the second wild card.

Someone will be the scapegoat. He was chosen last off-season: Joe Maddon. Maddon did not get a contract extension because the team does not want him (and his $6 million salary). Theo has been rotating coaches in Maddon's dugout to little success. Four batting coaches in four years has not improved the offense. Pitching has become erratic at best. Baseball is trending toward management hiring cheap, inexperienced and controllable managers. Maddon does not fit that role.

The farm system has not produced any sustainable help for this team. In fact, the farm system rates near the bottom because Theo has not drafted and developed one starting pitcher in his tenure with Chicago. This major flaw has a cascade affect on the team and its financing as he paid dearly to acquire pitching. With little help in the minors available, this off-season will come after a disappointing season. What will happen?

It is possible that the roster will have to be blown up. But it would have to be a dramatic change in attitude because Theo overvalues "his guys." He does not trade "his guys." He always talks about his championship core of starters. But many of these core players are breaking down with injuries, underperformance or pending free agency. The farm system is devoid of talent to make quality trades. Trades would have to be made from the current 40 man roster.

The current roster is filled with platoon situations, utility players and aging veterans. The starting rotation will be Lester, Hendricks, Darvish and Quintana. Hamels will not be re-signed. The bullpen will have to be retooled as well.

Your 2020 outfield appears to be Schwarber, Happ/Almora and Heyward. You cannot trade Heyward's contract. Schwarber has turned into an Adam Dunn DH. Happ and Almora are too inconsistent at the plate to have a .225 platoon in CF. Can you trade Happ and/or Almora? Yes, but they would get little in return because they are not proven starters. Can you trade Schwarber? Yes, but a DH/LF will not bring any great return.

Your 2020 infield appears to be Bryant, Baez, Russell/Garcia/Kemp/Hoerner and Rizzo. Rizzo is tradeable but lost in first base depth throughout the league. No one is desperate for a new first baseman. Bryant and Baez are good trade chips. Bryant, if healthy, could bring in 5 players in return (including quality minor league prospects). Baez could bring in a good haul, too.  But the one who could bring in the most MLB ready starters is Contreras because a power hitting, good catcher is very hard to find. Could the Cubs have a Caritini/Lecroy platoon in 2020? Yes, but its production would pale without Contreras.

If the 2019 Cubs get brushed aside like last season, then wholesale changes should be on the way. The business side is going to push hard for cost reductions since the new Cubs network launch is going to be a financial dud. If the Cubs management believe this current team is still a championship caliber one, then nothing will change and the final result will be disappointing fans. Fans could take trading away the heart of your core players if you got exciting young talent in return (since the championship is still in everyone's back pocket.) Otherwise, this is a slow and painful death to the bottom of the standings.